By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-03-05 10:45:19
在常规赛结束前的每周，我们都会盘点各项重大个人奖项的竞争形势。本周，让我们回到博彩赔率，看看各项奖项的排名顺序。在赛季还剩约五周之际，我们将审视当前的博彩赔率。
以下是“奖项观察”的运作方式：自2019年以来，我一直是受邀为年度奖项投票的媒体成员之一。这是一份我非常看重的荣誉，因为我力求选出我认为最名副其实的球员。由于投票是公开的，我也不希望因为投出荒谬的一票而被制作成表情包永远嘲笑。我喜欢这种分析，因为它能很好地衡量我自己的想法/研究，以及《The Athletic》其他作者和读者的观点。
就像互联网上所有的排名和观点一样，我确信这会迎来大家的一致认可和握手赞同，而不是叫嚷和指责。如果你有不同意见，请在评论区留言。让我们先声明几点：
- 是的，我看了比赛。
- 是是的，我看过数据。
- 不，我不讨厌那个球员。
- 不，我不讨厌那支球队。
- 如果你有不同意见并想调侃我，请自便。只要尝试提出一个合理的观点即可。我对你对主队或爱将的偏见不太感兴趣，但我非常感兴趣于那些我可能错过或考虑不足的视角。我致力于为这些奖项收集尽可能多的信息和意见。
- 在每个奖项板块中，我将给出我的评选标准，同时结合我的想法以及我认为该奖项在历史上投票时所强调的重点。
- 别忘了 65 场比赛规则！单赛季出场不足 65 场的球员将没有资格参评 MVP、年度最佳防守球员或最快进步球员。
让我们开始吧。（赔率和数据截止至周三比赛前。）
MVP
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五位荣誉提名： 泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，费城 76 人 | 多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士 | 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)，洛杉矶湖人 | 安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，明尼苏达森林狼 | 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯
5. 杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人（夺奖赔率 +6000）
我们非常确定杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 很快就会重新穿上凯尔特人的球衣，我很好奇这对布朗的 MVP 排名会有什么影响。
布朗本赛季场均贡献 29.0 分、7.1 个篮板和 5.0 次助攻，投篮三项命中率为 48.2%/34.9%/77.8%，真实命中率为 57.2%。尽管出手频率发生了巨大变化（场均 22.2 次出手领跑联盟）且使用率达到生涯新高的 36.6%，我们并没有看到他的效率有任何下滑。在塔图姆缺阵，且球队经历了去年多名核心球员离去和缺席的情况下，布朗带领凯尔特人冲到了东部第二。
这实际上让我想起了 2003-04 赛季的萨克拉门托国王。克里斯·韦伯 (Chris Webber) 在 2003 年季后赛中膝盖受伤并缺席了该赛季的大部分比赛，但国王队并未因此掉队。他们在前 58 场比赛中取得了 43 胜 15 负的战绩，拥有全联盟最佳战绩、最强进攻和最高的净效率值。佩贾·斯托亚科维奇 (Peja Stojaković) 曾是 MVP 的有力竞争者，与凯文·加内特展开角逐。随后，韦伯在 3 月 2 日复出，国王队不得不调整一切来让他们的核心核心重新融入节奏。
在赛季最后的 24 场比赛中，国王仅取得 12 胜 12 负。韦伯的表现未能达到我们习惯的水准，而佩贾的表现也受到了影响。他的场均得分从 25.6 分（三项命中率 48.1%/44.4%/92.5%）下降到 21.1 分（命中率 47.7%/40.5%/93.5%）。下滑并不算巨大，他依然高效，但球队的引擎似乎被卡住了。
这两个情况之间有很多潜在的相似之处，尽管伤病和球员不同，且塔图姆和韦伯正处于各自职业生涯的不同阶段。我们可能会看到塔图姆在努力找回全明星/最佳阵容级别节奏和产出的过程中接受一个更小的角色。我们可能会看到他退居次席。我们也可能看到他和布朗无缝衔接，找回之前的默契。或者我们可能会看到布朗的产出大幅下降。存在很多可能性。
佩贾最终在那个赛季的 MVP 投票中排名第四。布朗很可能仍会停留在预测的前五名。但希望人们不要因为凯尔特人在帮助塔图姆找回状态时，布朗的产出或表现若发生变化，就忘记他此前的表现有多么出色。
**4. 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，圣安东尼奥马刺（+1700，此前排名第三）**3. 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)，底特律活塞（夺奖赔率 +1200，此前排名第四）
目前，博彩赔率显示布朗、文班亚马和坎宁安占据了选票剩余的位置，但我们看到文班亚马在过去两周内缩小了差距。
文班的赔率波动很大，我想这是因为人们在试图寻找最佳价值，以防 65 场比赛规则造成变数。上周，坎宁安是 +425，而文班处于 +1400。然后几天前，文班跌至 +2200，坎宁安则跌至 +800。在过去的一天左右，赔率变动到了你上面看到的当前水平。文班未来的赔率可能会相当高，因为他总体上会是一个热门的投注对象。如果他与坎宁安交换位置来到第三高赔率（或者如果有人因资格取消而上升），也不足为奇。
**2. 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)，丹佛掘金（夺奖赔率 +650，此前排名第一）**1. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆（夺奖赔率 -300，此前排名第二）
一周前，我们看到约基奇在博彩赔率上非常接近吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。约基奇是 +300，而吉尔杰斯-亚历山大是以 -125 成为蝉联 MVP 的热门。现在，差距再次拉大。部分原因是吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的回归，且他迅速找回了状态。虽然他仍在处理腹部伤势，但我们看到他继续帮助雷霆锁定头名。
与此同时，约基奇的表现并未达到我们所见证和期待的水准。自他回归以来，数据依然亮眼，场均 26.4 分、13.6 个篮板和 8.9 次助攻。然而，伤愈复出后的投篮命中率下降到了 49.2%，三分命中率为 32.4%，罚球命中率为 77.8%。他在这一阶段场均出现 4 次失误，而掘金在这段时期的战绩仅为 6 胜 8 负。
约基奇的势头正在下滑，而吉尔杰斯-亚历山大则再次飙升。约基奇在防守端的表现也变差了。他看起来腿部力量不足，这对掘金的一切都产生了巨大影响。贾马尔·穆雷在大多数夜晚成了救世主。所有这些，加上 SGA 本就拥有的出色赛季（且多打了五场比赛），就不难理解为什么吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在 MVP 赔率上的领先优势正在扩大。
年度最佳新秀
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两位荣誉提名： 塞德里克·科沃德 (Cedric Coward)，孟菲斯灰熊 | 德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen)，新奥尔良鹈鹕
**3. VJ·艾奇康姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，费城 76 人（夺奖赔率 +12500）****2. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，达拉斯独行侠（夺奖赔率 +130）**1. 康·克尼佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂（夺奖赔率 -170）
上周在奖项观察中，我们将克尼佩尔列为年度最佳新秀，当时弗拉格在赔率上仍有相当大的领先优势（-425 对比 +260）。现在，博彩赔率已经完全转向了克尼佩尔。
克尼佩尔在不到 60 场比赛中打破了新秀单赛季三分球纪录，获得了更多全国性的关注；而弗拉格则因足部扭伤继续缺阵。他已经连续缺席了八场比赛，考虑到独行侠在排名中的位置，很难说弗拉格还会再打多少场比赛。与此同时，比弗拉格多打 12 场比赛的克尼佩尔表现非常出色，并帮助他的球队成为 NBA 最励志的故事之一。
顺便提一下，艾奇康姆依然榜上有名。
年度最佳防守球员
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两位荣誉提名： 斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙 | 奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson)，活塞
**3. 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)，明尼苏达森林狼（夺奖赔率 +3000）****2. 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，雷霆（夺奖赔率 +600）**1. 文班亚马，马刺（夺奖赔率 -800）
马刺继续保持势头，他们的防守有时看起来非常恐怖，尤其是当文班亚马在场时。
我们看到文班的盖帽数据大幅攀升，这总能帮助左右投票者。这是我们少数几个能看懂形势的防守指标之一。可能会有盖帽手本身防守并不好，但他的情况并非如此。
在本赛季的前 30 场比赛中，文班亚马场均 2.5 次盖帽，总计 76 次封盖。在过去的 17 场比赛中，他场均 3.6 次盖帽，总计 62 次。尽管本赛季缺席了 14 场比赛，他依然以 138 次盖帽领跑联盟，比第二名的杰伊·霍夫多出 21 次。只要他符合参赛资格，我预计文班会轻松拿走这个奖项，博彩赔率也反映了这一点。
在马刺对阵森林狼的比赛中，鲁迪·戈贝尔在明尼苏达主场防守维克托·文班亚马。(Jesse Johnson . Imagn Images)
年度最佳第六人
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两位荣誉提名： 小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.)，掘金 | 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)，迈阿密热火
**3. 里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，休斯顿火箭（夺奖赔率 +600）****2. 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)，马刺（夺奖赔率 +325，此前排名第一）**1. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)，森林狼（夺奖赔率 +100，此前排名第二）
令我感兴趣的是，考虑到里德最近的低迷，他依然在博彩赔率中领先。在他过去的九场比赛中，有五场得分仅为个位数，整个二月份的表现确实不尽如人意。在目前赔率前三和两位荣誉提名球员中，里德的场均得分（13.9分）并列第二。这五名球员领跑赔率。我很好奇里德是否因为几年前拿过这个奖而拥有最高的知名度？也许这就是他依然领先的原因？哈克斯以场均 15.1 分领跑替补得分榜。谢泼德可能正在正确的时机崛起，他在过去 10 场比赛中场均得到 16.8 分，但其中有四场是作为首发出战。
年度最佳教练
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两位荣誉提名： 乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)，菲尼克斯太阳 | 查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee)，黄蜂
**3. 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，马刺（赔率 +800，此前排名第一）****2. 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla)，凯尔特人（赔率 +450，此前排名第二）**1. J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)，活塞（赔率 -325，此前排名第三）
活塞队几乎从头到尾都在东部领跑，赛季初没人认为他们会是东部第一。活塞超出了预期，并在积分榜榜首展现了统治力。比克斯塔夫在上赛季就有很好的获奖理由，有时这种优势会延续到下一年的投票中。马祖拉是另一位带队超出预期的教练，同理也解释了为什么约翰逊在圣安东尼奥紧随其后。
最快进步球员
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两位荣誉提名： 瑞安·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins)，密尔沃基雄鹿 | 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，亚特兰大老鹰
**3. 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者（赔率 +1100，此前排名第一）****2. 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，老鹰（赔率 +225，此前排名第三）**1. 杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)，活塞（赔率 -140，此前未上榜）
杜伦近期的势头很猛。他在博彩赔率中从榜单中游一跃而起，大幅领先亚特兰大的约翰逊。杜伦从一名支撑起出色防守的首发中锋，成长为这支可能拥有全联盟最佳战绩的活塞队的二号人物，并首次入选全明星。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Appreciating Jaylen Brown's season with Celtics: NBA Awards Watch
Appreciating Jaylen Brown’s season with Celtics: NBA Awards Watch
Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. This week, let’s go back to the betting odds for the outright order of the awards rankings. We’ll examine what those current betting odds are with about five weeks left in the season.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis as a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered, while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
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Five honorable mentions: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+6000 to win)
We’re pretty sure Jayson Tatum will be back in a Celtics uniform soon, and I’m curious what that does for Brown’s MVP positioning.
Brown is averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists on the season while putting up 48.2/34.9/77.8 shooting splits and a 57.2 true shooting percentage. We haven’t seen his efficiency really drop at all despite a massive change in shot frequency (leading the league with 22.2 attempts per game) and usage (36.6 percent, a career high by far). Without Tatum and despite all of their key absences and departures from last season, Brown has lifted the Celtics to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.
This actually reminds me of the 2003-04 Sacramento Kings a bit. Chris Webber tore up his knee in the 2003 playoffs and missed most of the year, but the Kings didn’t skip a beat. They started the season 43-15, holding the best record, best offense and best net rating in the NBA through the first 58 games. Peja Stojaković was one of the leading MVP candidates, battling Kevin Garnett. Then, Webber returned on March 2, and the Kings had to adjust everything to get their main cog back into the flow.
In the final 24 games of the season, the Kings went just 12-12. Webber was not up to the caliber of play we were used to seeing, and Stojaković’s play took a hit. He went from 25.6 points per game with 48.1/44.4/92.5 shooting splits to 21.1 points on 47.7/40.5/93.5. Not a massive drop, and he was still efficient, but a wrench had been thrown into the engine.
There are plenty of potential similarities between these two situations, although it’s different injuries and players, and Tatum and Webber are at different points in their respective careers. We may see Tatum accept a lesser role as he works to get back to his All-NBA-level rhythm and production. We may see him defer. We may see him and Brown pick up right where they left off. We may see Brown take a big dip in his production. There are a lot of possibilities.
Stojaković ended up finishing fourth in MVP voting that season. Brown will most likely still finish in the top five, where he’s projected. But hopefully people don’t forget how awesome he’s been if there is a change in his production or play as the Celtics work Tatum back into form.
4. **Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1700, previously third)**3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1200 to win, previously fourth)
Right now, the betting odds have Brown, Wembanyama and Cunningham filling out the rest of the ballot, but we’re seeing Wembanyama close the gap in the last two weeks.
Wemby’s odds are all over the place, as I’d imagine people are trying to find the best value in case the 65-game rule rears its ugly head. Last week, Cunningham was +425 while Wembanyama was resting at +1400. Then, a couple of days ago, Wembanyama had dropped to +2200 with Cunningham falling to +800. In the last day or so, it’s moved to the current odds you see above. Wembanyama’s odds in the future will probably be pretty high because he’s going to be a popular name to bet on in general. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him switch with Cunningham for the third-best odds (or higher if people become ineligible).
2. **Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+650 to win, previously first)**1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-300 to win, previously second)
A week ago, we saw Jokić extremely close to Gilgeous-Alexander in the betting odds. Jokić was +300, and Gilgeous-Alexander was the favorite at -125 to win his second consecutive MVP. Now, the gap is back to growing. Some of that is due to Gilgeous-Alexander’s return and him picking up right where he left off. He’s still nursing that abdominal injury, but we’re seeing him continue to help secure that top seed for the Thunder.
Jokić, meanwhile, is not playing to the level we’ve seen and expect from him. His numbers are still great since his return with 26.4 points, 13.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists. However, his shooting since returning from injury is down to 49.2 percent from the field, 32.4 percent from deep and 77.8 percent from the line. He’s also turning the ball over four times per game with the Nuggets going 6-8 in this stretch.
Jokić is headed in the wrong direction, while Gilgeous-Alexander is surging again. Jokić has been worse on defense, too. It doesn’t look like he has his legs under him, and it’s having a big effect on everything Nuggets. Jamal Murray has been the saving grace on most nights. All of that, combined with the great season SGA was already having (plus having played five more games), makes it easy to see why Gilgeous-Alexander is building his MVP betting odds lead.
Rookie of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
**3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+12500 to win)****2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (+130 to win)**1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (-170 to win)
We had Knueppel as the Rookie of the Year last week in the Awards Watch, when Flagg still had a pretty commanding lead in the odds (-425 compared to +260). Now, the betting odds have swung completely in Knueppel’s favor.
Knueppel set the rookie record for 3-pointers in a season in fewer than 60 games to gain a little bit more national exposure, while Flagg has continued to miss games with a foot sprain. He’s missed eight straight games, and considering the Mavericks’ positioning in the standings, it’s fair to wonder how many more games Flagg might play. Meanwhile, Knueppel, who has played 12 more games than Flagg, is playing really well and helping his team be one of the best stories in the NBA.
Shoutout to Edgecombe for still being on the board.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Ausar Thompson, Pistons
**3. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+3000 to win)****2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+600 to win)**1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-800 to win)
The Spurs continue to surge, and their defense continues to look monstrous at times, especially when Wembanyama is out there.
We’ve seen a massive uptick in Wemby’s shot blocking, which can always help sway voters. It’s one of the few defensive stats we have where we understand what’s going on. You can have shot blockers who are not great defenders, but that’s not what’s happening in his case.
In his first 30 games this season, Wembanyama averaged 2.5 blocks per game and totaled 76 rejections. In his last 17 games, he’s averaging 3.6 blocks and has 62 total. Even though he has missed 14 games this season, he’s still leading the league in blocks with 138, 21 more than second-place Jay Huff. As long as he qualifies, I’d expect Wemby to run away with this one, and the betting odds are reflecting that.
Rudy Gobert defends Victor Wembanyama during a Spurs-Timberwolves game in Minnesota. (Jesse Johnson . Imagn Images)
Sixth Man of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
**3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (+600 to win)**2. **Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+325 to win, previously first)**1. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+100 to win, previously second)
It’s interesting to me that Reid still leads these betting odds, considering his recent slump. Five of his last nine games have been single-digit scoring performances, and he really had a bad February overall. Reid is tied for second in scoring average (13.9) among the three best odds here and the two honorable mentions. Those five players are leading the odds. I wonder if Reid has the most name recognition for the award, having won it a couple of years ago? Maybe that’s why he’s still leading? Jaquez is the leading bench scorer at 15.1 per game. Sheppard might be surging at the right time. He’s averaging 16.8 points over his last 10 games, but four of those have been starts.
Coach of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
3. **Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+800 to win, previously first)****2. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+450 to win, previously second)**1. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-325 to win, previously third)
The Pistons have pretty much been wire-to-wire leading the East, and nobody had them as the No. 1 team in the conference this season. You have the Pistons exceeding their expectations and a totally dominant season atop the standings. Bickerstaff had a great case for the honor last season, and sometimes, you get that to carry over into the voting the next season. Mazzulla is another coach whose team has exceeded expectations, which also makes sense for Johnson being not far behind him in San Antonio.
Most Improved Player
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Two honorable mentions: Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks | Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks
3. **Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (+1100 to win, previously first)****2. Jalen Johnson, Hawks (+225 to win, previously third)**1. Jalen Duren, Pistons (-140 to win, previously unmentioned)
Duren has seen a late surge. He’s gone from about halfway down the list in the betting odds to having a pretty commanding lead over Johnson in Atlanta. Duren went from a good starting center anchoring a good defense to the second-best player and a first-time All-Star on a Pistons team that might end up with the best record in basketball.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic