By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-03-26 14:45:18
在常规赛结束前的每周，我们都会盘点各大个人奖项的竞争形势。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在过去一周陈述了他竞逐 MVP 的理由，下面我们将仔细审视他的评选标准。
以下是“奖项观察”的运作方式：自 2019 年以来，我一直是被选中参与年度奖项投票的媒体成员之一。这是一份我非常看重的荣誉，因为我力求选出我认为最名副其实的球员。由于投票是公开的，我也不想因为投出荒唐的一票而被网友们永远做成表情包。我认为这种分析能很好地衡量我自己的想法、研究，以及《The Athletic》其他作者和读者的观点。
正如互联网上所有类型的排名和观点一样，我确信这会迎来赞同和握手，而不是喊叫和谩骂。如果你有不同意见，请在评论区留言。首先，让我们明确几点：
- 是的，我看比赛。
- 是的，我看过数据。
- 不，我不讨厌那名球员。
- 不，我不讨厌那支球队。
- 如果你有不同意见并想吐槽我，请自便。只要尝试提出一个合理的观点即可。我对你对心仪球员或球队的偏见不太感兴趣，但我对那些我可能忽略或考虑不足的视角非常感兴趣。我致力于为这些奖项获取尽可能多的信息和观点。
- 在每个奖项板块中，我将给出我认为该奖项应如何评选的标准，同时结合我的想法以及我认为该奖项在历史上投票时所强调的重点。
- 别忘了 65 场比赛规则！单赛季出场不满 65 场的球员没有资格评选 MVP、年度最佳防守球员或最快进步球员。
让我们进入正题。（赔率和数据截至周三比赛前。）
MVP
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荣誉提名： 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，休斯顿火箭 | 多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士 | 安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，明尼苏达森林狼 | 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯 | 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)，底特律活塞
5. 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)，洛杉矶湖人（夺冠赔率 +800，此前为荣誉提名）
凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 遭遇了肺萎陷，这可能会让他缺席剩余的常规赛。如果是这样，亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 的 65 场比赛规则将使这位活塞球星失去评选常规赛奖项的资格。东契奇目前的博彩赔率排名第三，因为湖人队势头强劲，而他继续领跑全联盟得分榜。东契奇一直是每周很难被排除在前五之外的人选，因为他表现得非常出色。不幸的是，坎宁安的受伤腾出了一个位置。
4. 杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人（夺冠赔率 +25000，此前排名第五）
关于杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 回归后布朗的产量会如何，曾有很多疑问。除了三分球投射（这是凯尔特人全队在这段时期的共同问题）之外，自塔图姆回归以来，我们并没有看到布朗的数据有太大的下滑。以下是对比数据：
- 塔图姆回归前： 55 场比赛，场均 34.3 分钟，28.9 分，7.2 个篮板，5.0 次助攻，3.6 次失误，投篮命中率 48.0%/34.8%/77.9%。
- 塔图姆回归后： 10 场比赛，场均 34.5 分钟，26.8 分，6.2 个篮板，6.1 次助攻，3.6 次失误，投篮命中率 45.6%/30.0%/89.5%。
看到如此大比例的球权现在转移到了另一位发起人手中（正如你对塔图姆回归后的预期），而布朗仍能保持如此高的产量，这确实令人印象深刻。无论如何，他在攻防两端的表现都必须让他出现在选票上。我怀疑他的排名不会高于第四或第五，但他理应榜上有名。
3. 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)，丹佛掘金（夺冠赔率 +8000）
当我看到约基奇的赔率已经跌至几乎不被考虑的境地时，我真的倒吸了一口凉气。我不确定这是否已经变成了两人的竞争，而且他还没有出局，所以这不关乎市场是否认为他有资格。坎宁安正是因为这个原因才从榜单上消失的。约基奇伤愈复出后依然表现出色，但效率远不如前。他在防守端也表现得相当挣扎，因为他看起来要么是体能状态不佳，要么是膝盖还没有完全康复。总的来说，约基奇在过去几年里是一名被低估的防守者，但在过去的两个月里，我们没有看到他拿出好的防守。尽管“大白蜜”在过去四场比赛中场均贡献 22.3 分、13.0 个篮板、13.7 次助攻和 58.3% 的命中率，并带领球队取得 4 胜 0 负，但他的赔率在上周还是从 +1800 暴跌至 +8000。这令人费解。
2. 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，圣安东尼奥马刺 (+1000)
1. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆（夺冠赔率 -750）
文班亚马在过去一周慷慨激昂地陈述了他渴望并值得 MVP 奖项的理由，这令人耳目一新。通常，我们告诉球员不要公开表达对奖项的渴望，说那是自私的。我不确定渴望赢得 MVP 或任何个人奖项有什么自私的，因为如果不极大地推动球队的成功，你就很难获得它。我喜欢听文班这么说，并希望更多的球员在讨论奖项时能改掉那种漫不经心、充满公关辞令的套路。
在这里，我想回顾一下文班对该奖项提出的三个标准，并将其作为他与卫冕 MVP 吉尔杰斯-亚历山大以及三届 MVP 约基奇之间的比较工具。
1. “我的第一个理由是，防守占据了比赛的一半，而到目前为止，这在 MVP 竞争中被低估了。”
我倾向于同意防守在 MVP 竞争中可能被低估了。在 2017 年科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 远落后于拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 排名第三时，你本可以提出这个观点。我确信费城球迷在支持乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 而非约基奇时也曾以此为据。让我们对比一下这三位顶级候选人：
- 文班： 他无疑是联盟中最好的防守球员，并且在盖帽榜上遥遥领先。当文班不在场时，马刺每 100 回合多丢 10.2 分。当他在场时，他们拥有全联盟最顶级的防守。在面对他的防守时，球员的投篮命中率会下降 8.9 个百分点。
- SGA： 他是一名被极度低估的防守型后卫，比大多数人想象的更接近入选最佳防守阵容。他场均能贡献约 1.5 次抢断和 1 次盖帽。虽然他的球队在他下场时防守稍好，但无论如何，他们的防守都很出色。
- 约基奇： 在去年 12 月底膝盖受伤之前，约基奇在场与否对球队防守的影响要大得多。总的来说，他是一名非常出色的位置防守者，但自伤愈复出以来一直表现挣扎。不过，他在防守端无法与文班和 SGA 相比。
2. “第二个论点是，我们在常规赛中几乎横扫了俄克拉荷马城雷霆，我们三次击败了他们的主力阵容，还有四次击败了，你知道的，更多轮换球员在场的他们。”
这是事实。雷霆队赛季的一个重大转折点就是马刺队打破了他们在拉斯维加斯参加 NBA 杯半决赛前的无敌光环。当时雷霆 24 胜 1 负，看起来要挑战历史。当马刺戳破那个泡沫并在短时间内连续三次击败他们时，情况发生了戏剧性的变化。我不确定这在 MVP 投票中应该占多大比重，但我猜，从改变雷霆赛季走势的角度来看，这确实有一定的价值论据。
文班本赛季还没有对阵过丹佛。SGA 本赛季对阵掘金 3 胜 0 负，那么在讨论这三人时，这又占多少分量呢？这是否变成了一场意外的“石头剪刀布”游戏？
3. “我的第三个论点是，进攻影响力不仅仅是得分。”
我同意这个伟大的观点。进攻不仅仅是得分。为队友创造机会的组织能力是一个重要因素。你通过吸引协防球员远离队友来创造空位投篮的牵制力也很关键。然而，这三个人做的绝对不仅仅是得分：
- 文班： 他场均得到 24.3 分。他通过助攻场均仅创造 5.5 分。当他不在场时，马刺的进攻每 100 回合下降 6.5 分。当他下场时，他们的真实命中率从 61.7% 降至 57.1%。但你还必须考虑他的牵制力，因为他对内线防守施加了巨大的压力。毕竟，他似乎能从令人难以置信的距离完成扣篮。马刺队在获得大空位三分机会方面表现平平，排名联盟第 14。
- SGA： 他场均得到 31.5 分。他通过助攻创造 17.5 分，几乎使他每晚的总进攻产出达到 50 分。当他不在场时，雷霆的进攻每 100 回合下降 10.4 分。当他下场时，他们的真实命中率从 61.6% 降至 57.1%。当他不在场时，他们的失误率从 11.0% 跳升至 14.3%。雷霆本赛季创造了全联盟第二多的大空位投篮机会和第五多的大空位三分机会。这在很大程度上是因为对方防守在尽可能地包夹 SGA。
- 约基奇： 他场均得到 27.9 分。他还在助攻创造得分榜上领跑联盟，场均创造 27.8 分。如此高的产量下，得分和助攻产出竟然如此平均，这太疯狂了。当他不在场时，掘金的进攻每 100 回合下降 13.1 分。当他下场时，他们的真实命中率从 64.1% 降至 57.6%。很难反驳有人在进攻端的影响力比约基奇更大。
在马刺超级巨星提出的标准框架内，这些都是非常有趣的论点。文班在进攻端与 SGA 的差距，可能比 SGA 在防守端与文班的差距更小。我不知道你是否会平等地衡量这些东西，而投票者往往不会。但这并不意味着在这里不会发生。与文班的强势崛起相比，我可能会更看好 SGA 本赛季的稳定性。然而，有时赛季后半段一次合时的爆发能让球员有机会夺走奖项。这可能会发生在文班身上。
年度最佳防守球员
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两名荣誉提名： 斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙 | 阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)，迈阿密热火
**3. 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)，森林狼 (+10000)****2. 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，雷霆 (+1400)**1. 文班亚马，马刺 (-5000)
文班亚马已经成为该奖项的头号大热门，我不确定一周后它是否还会出现在赔率表上。在过去的两个月里，文班亚马在 28 场比赛中场均贡献 3.7 次盖帽和 1.3 次抢断。当他在场时，马刺队似乎是一支不可能被高效得分的球队。你可以看到球员们在进攻时，只要他在附近，就会字面意义上地放弃尝试进攻。当他在后场防守时，他会让 NBA 球员觉得他们在转换进攻中毫无机会，他们只是在玩传炸弹游戏。最近，杰伦·布朗在直播中这样评价文班：
“那个男孩，文班，是个大麻烦。大麻烦。当我说我是联盟中最好的攻防一体球员时，那是不算文班的。文班不算。文班不算。他甚至不是人类。我是最好的人类攻防一体球员。但文班是不同的，兄弟。”
文班亚马最终可能会获得联盟历史上最多的年度最佳防守球员奖。这是其中的第一个。
年度最佳新秀
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两名荣誉提名： 艾斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)，犹他爵士 | 德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen)，新奥尔良鹈鹕
**3. VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，费城 76 人 (+25000)****2. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，达拉斯独行侠 (+145)**1. 康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂 (-200)
弗拉格自脚伤复出后继续奋战，他展示了你希望看到的得分、组织、篮板和防守的全能表现。但他的投篮命中率一直很糟糕，投篮命中率为 42.9%，三分命中率为 21.2%。他在罚球线上表现出色（83.7%），自复出以来场均能获得 4.5 次罚球。但在没有意义的比赛中试图追赶，同时效率又不高，这很难对抗康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 在关键比赛中的持续表现，因为黄蜂队正在为季后赛席位而战。两人的差距非常小，以至于每场比赛的意义都应该被考虑在内。
库珀·弗拉格自伤愈复出以来似乎一直在年度最佳新秀的竞争中扮演追赶者的角色。(Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
年度最佳第六人
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两名荣誉提名： 蒂姆·哈达威二世 (Tim Hardaway Jr.)，掘金 | 里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，火箭
**3. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)，森林狼 (+800，此前为荣誉提名)****2. 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)，热火 (+270)**1. 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)，马刺 (-115)
谢泼德和里德最近都表现挣扎，但我认为这位森林狼替补的整体表现比谢泼德更有竞争力。不过两人差距很小。约翰逊终于成为了这个奖项的赔率热门，因为公众似乎终于注意到了他为这支联盟第二好的球队所做的一切。哈克斯也深陷其中，但几周以来我们一直认为这位马刺替补才是最佳人选。
年度最佳教练
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两名荣誉提名： 乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)，凤凰城太阳 | 查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee)，黄蜂
**3. J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)，活塞 (-190)****2. 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，马刺 (+1600)**1. 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla)，凯尔特人 (+175)
我不想继续忽视比克斯塔夫所做的执教工作。我认为他赢球是实至名归的。但这个奖项通常会颁给最令人惊讶的球队。活塞队成为头号种子是不在预料之中的，但在这个赛季似乎也不难想象。没有人预料到马刺会成为联盟第二好的球队，甚至连接近都谈不上。也没有人预料到凯尔特人会在东部排名第二，并且距离头号种子仅一步之遥。这两个预期的破灭让约翰逊和马祖拉占据了微弱的优势。
最快进步球员
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两名荣誉提名： 瑞安·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins)，密尔沃基雄鹿 | 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者
**3. 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，亚特兰大老鹰 (+1300)****2. 杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)，活塞 (-130，此前为荣誉提名)**1. 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，亚特兰大老鹰 (+135)
我将阿夫迪亚从前三名中移除了，因为他自伤愈复出以来在三月份的表现相当挣扎。他的投篮命中率下降了很多，而他的三分命中率（20.8%）让你怀疑他是不是在尝试打板进球。杜伦超越了约翰逊，因为他在坎宁安缺阵期间在底特律的表现。他在扩大的领导角色中表现出色，在那五场比赛中场均得到 25.8 分、10.6 个篮板，投篮命中率为 64.7%，场均 9.4 次罚球，命中率为 87.2%（坎宁安在受伤的那场比赛中几乎没打）。但我仍然认为亚历山大-沃克是这里的首选。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Victor Wembanyama offered up his NBA MVP criteria. Let's break it down: Awards Watch
Victor Wembanyama offered up his NBA MVP criteria. Let’s break it down: Awards Watch
Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. Victor Wembanyama made his case for MVP this past week, and below, we’ll put his criteria under a microscope.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis as a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
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Honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+800 to win, previously honorable mention)
Cade Cunningham has a collapsed lung, and it could keep him out for the rest of the regular season. If that’s the case, Adam Silver’s 65-game rule would make the Pistons star ineligible for regular-season awards. Dončić has the third-best betting odds currently, as the Lakers have surged and he continues to lead the league in scoring. Dončić has been the tough one to keep out of the top five in this space week after week because he’s been excellent. Unfortunately, Cunningham’s injury opens up a spot.
4. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+25000 to win, previously fifth)
There were a lot of questions about what Brown’s production would be once Jayson Tatum was back. Other than 3-point shooting (which is an issue for the Celtics across the board during this stretch), we haven’t seen much of a downgrade in Brown’s numbers since Tatum’s return. Here are the splits:
- **Pre-Tatum:**55 games, 34.3 minutes, 28.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.6 turnovers and 48.0/34.8/77.9 shooting splits.
- **Post-Tatum:**10 games, 34.5 minutes, 26.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 3.6 turnovers and 45.6/30.0/89.5 shooting splits.
That’s pretty impressive to see such a big chunk of possessions now going to another initiator, as you’d expect with Tatum back, and Brown is still able to keep that production super high. His play on both ends of the floor has to land him on this ballot, no matter what. I doubt he gets higher than fourth or fifth, but he belongs.
3. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+8000 to win)
I legitimately gasped at the betting odds when I saw Jokić had fallen all the way down to the territory of not actually being considered. I’m not so certain this is down to a two-person race, and he’s not off the board, so it isn’t a question of whether or not the markets think he’ll be eligible. Cunningham is no longer on the board because of that very thing. Jokić has still been awesome since returning from injury, but he hasn’t been nearly as efficient. He’s also been pretty brutal on defense, as he either doesn’t appear to be in great shape or maybe his knee isn’t fully healthy. Jokić is a pretty underrated defender in general the past couple years, but we’re not seeing good defense out of him the last couple months. Big Honey’s betting odds plummeted from +1800 to +8000 this last week, even though his numbers over those four games were 22.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, 13.7 assists and 58.3 percent shooting in a 4-0 week. It’s confusing.
**2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1000)**1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-750 to win)
Wembanyama gave his impassioned case for wanting and deserving the MVP award this past week, and it was a breath of fresh air. So often, we tell players not to openly want awards and that it’s selfish. I’m not sure what could be selfish about wanting to win MVP or any individual award because it’s pretty difficult to receive it without being a tremendous boost to your team’s success. I loved hearing that from Wemby and wish more players would cut the nonchalant, PR-laden schtick when it comes to discussing awards.
Here, I wanted to go over Wemby’s three criteria for the award and use it as a comparison tool for him and Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, and Jokić, a three-time MVP.
1. “My first one would be that defense is 50 percent of the game, and that is undervalued, so far, in the MVP race.”
I would tend to agree that defense can be underrated in the MVP race. You could have made that argument when Kawhi Leonard finished a distant third to Russell Westbrook and James Harden in 2017. There are times that I’m sure Philadelphia fans would have argued that in favor of Joel Embiid over someone like Jokić. Let’s compare the three top candidates here:
- Wemby: He’s easily the best defensive player in the league and leading the NBA in blocks by a lot. The Spurs give up 10.2 more points per 100 possessions when Wemby isn’t in the game. They have the best defense in the league when he’s on the court. Players shoot 8.9 percentage points worse when he defends the shot.
- SGA: He’s an extremely underrated defensive guard and is far closer to making All-Defense than most assume. He gets about 1.5 steals and a block per game. His team is slightly better defensively without him on the floor, but they’re just good at defense no matter what.
- Jokić: There was a much bigger difference in the team defense with Jokić on the floor versus off before his knee injury in late December. He’s a very good position defender in general, but he’s struggled to defend since returning from injury. He can’t compare with Wemby and SGA defensively, though.
2. “Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season, and we dominated them three times with their real team and four times with the, you know, more rotation players.”
It is true. One of the big turning points in the Thunder’s season was the Spurs shattering the air of invincibility OKC had going into the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas. The Thunder were 24-1 and looking like they might challenge history. Things changed dramatically when the Spurs burst that bubble and ended up beating them three times in a short amount of time. I’m not sure how much that should factor into MVP voting, but there is an argument of value in that sense of changing OKC’s season, I guess.
Wemby has also not played against Denver this season. SGA is 3-0 against the Nuggets this season, so how much does that factor in when discussing these three? Has this become an accidental game of Rock-Paper-Scissors?
3. “My third argument would be that offense impact is not just points.”
I agree with this great point. Offense is more than just scoring points. The playmaking in setting up your teammates is a big factor. The gravity you have in taking help defenders away from your teammates to create open shots is a big deal, too. However, all three of these guys definitely do more than score:
- Wemby: He averages 24.3 points by himself. He only creates 5.5 points per game with his assists. The Spurs’ offense drops by 6.5 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor. Their true shooting goes from 61.7 to 57.1 percent when he’s on the bench. But you have to factor in his gravity, as well, because he puts so much pressure on the interior defense. After all, he can seemingly dunk it from mind-boggling distances. The Spurs are pretty middle of the road in wide-open 3-point attempts with the 14th most.
- SGA: He averages 31.5 points just by himself. He creates 17.5 points off assists, nearly pushing his total offensive production to 50 points each night. The Thunder’s offense drops by 10.4 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor. Their true shooting goes from 61.6 to 57.1 percent when he’s on the bench. And their turnover rate jumps from 11.0 percent to 14.3 percent when he’s not in the game. The Thunder generate the second-most wide-open shots and the fifth-most wide-open 3-pointers in the NBA this season. Most of that is the opposing defense swarming SGA as much as possible.
- Jokić: He averages 27.9 points just by himself. He also leads the league in points created by assists with 27.8 points per game. It’s wild that it’s so even at such a high volume. The Nuggets’ offense drops by 13.1 points per 100 possessions when he isn’t on the floor. Their true shooting goes from 64.1 to 57.6 percent when he’s on the bench. It’s hard to argue that anybody makes a bigger impact on the offensive end than Jokić.
These are all pretty interesting arguments within the criteria set out by the Spurs’ superstar. Wemby is probably closer to SGA offensively than SGA is to Wemby defensively. I don’t know if you weigh those things equally, and voters tend not to. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen here. I’d probably give the edge to SGA’s consistency this season over Wemby’s ascension. However, sometimes a well-timed surge in the second half of a season can give a player a chance to snatch the award away. That might happen with Wemby.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
**3. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves (+10000 to win)****2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+1400 to win)**1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-5000 to win)
Wembanyama has become such a massive favorite for this award that I’m not convinced it will even be on the board in a week. Over the last two months, Wembanyama has averaged 3.7 blocks and 1,3 steals in 28 games. The Spurs are a seemingly impossible team to efficiently score against when he’s on the floor. You see players literally bail out, offensively, from even attempting to attack when he’s near. He makes NBA players decide there is no shot for them in transition when he’s back, and they’re just playing a game of hot potato. Recently, Jaylen Brown was streaming, and he had this to say about Wemby.
“That boy, Wemby, is a problem. Big problem. When I say I’m the best two-way player in the league, it’s not counting Wemby. Like, Wemby don’t count. Wemby don’t count. He’s not even human. I’m the best human player, two-way. But Wemby is different, bro.”
Wembanyama might eventually end up with the most Defensive Player of the Year awards in league history. This is the first of those.
Rookie of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
**3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+25000 to win)****2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (+145 to win)**1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (-200 to win)
Flagg continued to battle since coming back from his foot injury, and he’s showing an all-around game you want to see with scoring, playmaking, rebounding and defense. But his shooting percentages have been brutal at 42.9 percent from the field and 21.2 percent from deep. He’s been excellent at the free-throw line (83.7 percent) and gets there 4.5 times per game since his return. But trying to make up ground in meaningless games while not being efficient is tough against what Knueppel continues to do in games that have a lot at stake, as Charlotte battles for postseason positioning. This is close enough that the meaning of each game is something that should be considered.
It seems Cooper Flagg has been playing catch-up in the Rookie of the Year race since returning from injury. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
Sixth Man of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Reed Sheppard, Rockets
**3. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+800 to win, previously honorable mention)****2. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat (+270 to win)**1. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (-115 to win)
Sheppard and Reid are both struggling lately, but I’ll go with the body of work the Wolves reserve has had as a better case for the award than Sheppard. It’s close, though. Johnson is finally the betting favorite in this race, as the public seems to have finally noticed what he’s doing for the second-best team in the league. Jaquez is very much in this, but we’ve had the Spurs reserve as the guy for a few weeks now.
Coach of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
**3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-190 to win)****2. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+1600 to win)**1. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+175 to win)
I don’t want to keep discounting the coaching job Bickerstaff has done. I think his winning would be very deserving. But this award so often goes to the team that surprised the most. The Pistons being the No. 1 seed was not projected, but it also doesn’t seem hard to imagine this season. Nobody had the Spurs as the second-best team in the league or close to it. Nobody had the Celtics being second in the Eastern Conference and within shouting distance of the No. 1 seed. Those two expectations being shattered give Johnson and Mazzulla a slight edge.
Most Improved Player
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Two honorable mentions: Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks | Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
**3. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks (+1300 to win)****2. Jalen Duren, Pistons (-130 to win, previously honorable mention)**1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks (+135 to win)
I removed Avdija from the top three because he’s had a pretty rough March since returning from injury. His field goal percentage has dropped a lot, and his 3-point percentage (20.8) makes you wonder if he’s trying to bank them in. Duren moves past Johnson because of what he’s doing without Cunningham in Detroit’s lineup. He’s been awesome in his extended leadership role and has 25.8 points, 10.6 rebounds and is making 64.7 percent from the field and 87.2 percent of his free throws on 9.4 attempts in those five games (Cunningham barely played in the game he got injured). But I still think Alexander-Walker is the pick here.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic