By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-03-12 10:00:03

在常规赛结束前的每一周,我们都会盘点各大个人奖项的竞争形势。本周,我们撇开博彩赔率榜,回归我心目中选票最终应有的归属。鉴于本赛季奖项竞争显得如此混乱,当我写到每个章节的结尾时,情况可能又会发生变化,但有一点是肯定的:一位全新的MVP竞争者已经浮出水面。
以下是“奖项观察”的运作方式:自2019年以来,我一直是有幸参与年度奖项投票的媒体成员之一。这是一项我非常看重的荣誉,因为我力求选出我认为最名副其实的球员。由于投票是公开的,我也不想因为投出一张荒谬的选票而落得个被网友永远调侃的下场。我认为这份分析能很好地衡量我的想法、研究成果,以及《The Athletic》其他作者和读者的意见。
就像互联网上所有的排名和观点一样,我确信这会迎来大家握手言和的共识,而不是叫喊和谩骂。如果你有不同意见,请在评论区留言。让我们先撇开这些不谈:
- 是的,我看了比赛。
- 是的,我看了数据。
- 不,我不讨厌那个球员。
- 不,我不讨厌那支球队。
- 如果你有不同意见并想对我开火,请便,尽管放马过来。只是尽量让你的观点听起来有道理。我对你对主队或偶像的偏见不感兴趣,但我对可能被我忽略或考虑不足的视角非常感兴趣。我致力于为这些奖项收集尽可能多的信息和观点。
- 在每个奖项板块,我都会给出我的评选标准,同时结合我的个人看法以及我认为历史上投票所强调的重点。
- 别忘了“65场规定”!单赛季出场不满65场的球员没有资格参评MVP、年度最佳防守球员或最快进步球员。
让我们进入正题。(赔率和统计数据截至周三比赛前。)
MVP(最有价值球员)
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五位荣誉提名: 泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey),费城76人 | 多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell),克利夫兰骑士 | 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić),洛杉矶湖人 | 安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards),明尼苏达森林狼 | 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson),纽约尼克斯
5. 杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown),波士顿凯尔特人(夺冠赔率 +8000)
上周,我们谈到了杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的回归可能会损害布朗的MVP得票。倒不是说杰伦·布朗会获得大量的头名选票,但考虑到他表现极其出色的赛季,他仍应排在前五。他跌出前五的唯一风险是如果东契奇、爱德华兹或布伦森在凯尔特人陷入困境时打出统治级表现并带领球队战绩飙升。由于这种情况并未发生,所以布朗的位置应该相当稳固。
4. 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham),底特律活塞(夺冠赔率 +2500,此前排名第3)
尽管打出了一个伟大的赛季,但我不确定除了“65场规定”波及竞争对手之外,还有什么能让坎宁安进入前三。这绝不是在贬低他。他的数据非常惊人,场均贡献25.1分和9.9次助攻,非常接近成为历史上第九位单赛季场均25分10助攻的球员。他的防守现象级。而且他的球队战绩位居东部第一,仍在角逐全联盟最佳战绩。但其他人的赛季表现已经超越了他,唯有无法达到65场出场门槛才能压制那些人的竞选势头。
3. 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić),丹佛掘金(夺冠赔率 +2000,此前排名第2)
在膝伤复出后的17场比赛中,约基奇场均贡献27.5分、13.2个篮板、9.2次助攻和4.2次失误,投篮三项命中率为52.1%/31.7%/80.0%。掘金在这些比赛中仅取得7胜10负,排名已滑落至西部下游。如果不能迅速扭转局面,他们真的面临跌出前六的危险。虽然你刚才读到的数据很出色,但与约基奇受伤前交出的29.6分、12.2个篮板、11.0次助攻、3.5次失误以及60.5%/43.5%/85.3%的命中率相比,还是逊色不少。
这听起来可能像是在挑刺,在某种程度上确实如此。但在确定MVP排位时,你必须如此。整个赛季,我都觉得约基奇是MVP的最佳人选,但在他受伤后,场上的表现(虽然依旧伟大)和球队战绩(原因可以理解)确实不在同一个水平线上。也许他能在最后的冲刺阶段扭转局面,但很多时候他看起来确实有些步履蹒跚。
2. 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama),圣安东尼奥马刺(夺冠赔率 +1400,此前排名第4)
1. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander),俄克拉荷马城雷霆(夺冠赔率 -800)
我完全可以预见到文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在不需要吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 触发“65场规定”的情况下赢得MVP的真实场景。
他的数据摆在那里:场均24.2分、11.1个篮板、2.9次助攻和3.0个盖帽,投篮三项命中率为50.6%/36.0%/81.5%。他的影响力(数据仅供参考)也摆在那里:当他在场时,马刺的净效率为+15.7,而当他不在场时,这一数字为-0.2。他是世界上最好的防守球员(见下文剧透),他的球队战绩位列全联盟第二,紧随俄克拉荷马城之后。在常规赛中,他的球队基本统治了现任MVP及领先候选人的球队。即便没有“65场规定”的加持,文班亚马也具备了成为本赛季MVP的一切条件。但由于他已经缺席了14场比赛,这可能会让他无缘选票。这是否足以让他输给吉尔杰斯-亚历山大?
这位卫冕MVP本赛季至今比文班参赛场次多出3场。和文班一样,吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的数据也非常离谱。他场均贡献31.7分、6.6次助攻、4.5个篮板和1.4次抢断,命中率为55.1%/38.3%/89.5%。他的影响力(再次重申,数据仅供参考)如何?当这位MVP在场时,雷霆的净效率为+14.9,不在场时为+4.7。虽然不像文班在场与否的数据鸿沟那么巨大,但依然非常显著。事实上,没有吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在场,雷霆几乎无法得分,当他下场休息时,球队每百回合进攻效率会下降10.7分。此外,雷霆拥有全联盟最佳战绩,他们是最具统治力的球队,而且他们在二号得分手缺席40场、三号得分手缺席10场的情况下做到了这一切。
两人的情况并没有大多数人想象的那么悬殊,尤其是考虑到他们的出赛场次几乎相同。只是目前很难反对吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。
年度最佳新秀 (Rookie of the Year)
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两位荣誉提名: 塞德里克·科沃德 (Cedric Coward),孟菲斯灰熊 | 德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen),新奥尔良鹈鹕
3. VJ·艾奇科姆 (VJ Edgecombe),费城76人(夺冠赔率 +15000)
2. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg),达拉斯独行侠(夺冠赔率 +135)
1. 康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel),夏洛特黄蜂(夺冠赔率 -180)
克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 已经牢牢掌控了这场竞争,感觉目前名气是唯一能让弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 留在讨论范围内的东西。
这并不是在贬低弗拉格,因为他仍然值得认可。然而,两人之间的出场数差距巨大(克努佩尔比他多打了13场),而且黄蜂队的比赛重要性远超独行侠队,这很可能成为决定胜负的平局决胜因素。弗拉格最近从脚伤中复出,但在那四场比赛中表现得相当挣扎。他在四场比赛中出手78次仅得65分,命中率为34.6%/25.0%/80.0%。他必须以非常强劲的表现收官,才能重新夺回主动权。
年度最佳防守球员 (Defensive Player of the Year)
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两位荣誉提名: 斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes),多伦多猛龙 | 维姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo),迈阿密热火
3. 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert),森林狼(夺冠赔率 +4000)
2. 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren),雷霆(夺冠赔率 +1000)
1. 文班亚马,马刺(夺冠赔率 -1600)
戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 和霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 正经历着非常出色的防守赛季,但如果文班亚马达到65场出赛门槛,他们绝无可能染指这一奖项,甚至无法让投票过程产生悬念。
文班在过去的21场比赛中送出了77个盖帽,当他在场时,马刺的防守效率每百回合提升了近10分。虽然我不认为这会在本赛季发生,但我们不仅仅要开始讨论文班亚马是否能成为NBA历史上第四位在同一赛季包揽MVP和年度最佳防守球员的球员(迈克尔·乔丹、哈基姆·奥拉朱旺和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博都曾做到过一次)。我们要开始思考,文班最终在同一赛季包揽MVP和DPOY的次数,是否会超过这三位传奇的总和。
年度最佳第六人 (Sixth Man of the Year)
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两位荣誉提名: 小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.),掘金 | 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.),热火
3. 里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard),休斯顿火箭(夺冠赔率 +325)
2. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid),森林狼(夺冠赔率 +140, 此前排名第一)
1. 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson),马刺(夺冠赔率 +650,此前排名第二)
里德 (Naz Reid) 在二月和三月的表现并不理想,这也是约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 或谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 得以介入竞争的重要原因。哈克斯在迈阿密也有很强的竞争力。谢泼德最近手感火热,这让他的赔率冲到了第二位。然而,约翰逊在圣安东尼奥的稳定性让他占据了上风。尽管投篮手感时有起伏,但他在场上的影响非常稳健。他让马刺能够频繁使用小球阵容,且在哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 下场时,球队依然能保持节奏。
年度最佳教练 (Coach of the Year)
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两位荣誉提名: 乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott),凤凰城太阳 | 查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee),黄蜂
3. J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff),活塞(夺冠赔率 -185,此前排名第一)
2. 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson),马刺(夺冠赔率 +1100,此前排名第三)
1. 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla),凯尔特人(夺冠赔率 +200,此前排名第二)
虽然赔率仍看好比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff),但活塞最近的颓势应该让马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 或约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 处于领先地位。凯尔特人和马刺原本都不被看好能达到现在的位置。由于塔图姆的伤病和凯尔特人阵容裁员,他们本该是能拿到附加赛席位就算走运。而马刺原本被认为只是从西部前十之外上升到能打附加赛的水平。两支球队现在都稳居各自联盟的2号种子,并在此过程中处理了大量潜在的挫折。我会给马祖拉一点微弱的优势。
最快进步球员 (Most Improved Player)
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两位荣誉提名: 瑞安·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins),密尔沃基雄鹿 | 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija),波特兰开拓者
3. 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson),亚特兰大老鹰(夺冠赔率 +200,此前排名第二)
2. 杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren),活塞(夺冠赔率 -190,此前排名第一)
1. 基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George),犹他爵士(夺冠赔率 +1400,此前为荣誉提名)
我不确定乔治 (Keyonte George) 是否有资格评选这个奖项(是的,最快进步球员也受“65场规定”限制)。但在遭遇踝伤并缺席了最近10场中的9场后,他回到了球场。复出后的这几场比赛表现虽然不像之前那样惊艳,但乔治或许是今年NBA中“进步”一词的完美定义。
像阿夫迪亚、约翰逊和杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 之前已经是很好的NBA球员了,确实可以争论从一名优秀球员转变为全明星或最佳阵容级别是否更难。但乔治在职业生涯前两年表现相当糟糕,本赛季却突然开窍。罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins) 也有理由加入讨论,但乔治已经从一个你无法指望未来的球员,变成了一个在今年休赛期可能赢得巨额续约合同的球员。
由生成式 AI 翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。
点击查看原文:Victor Wembanyama for MVP? It's not impossible: NBA Awards Watch
Victor Wembanyama for MVP? It’s not impossible: NBA Awards Watch

Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. This week, we’re away from the betting odds board and going back to where I feel like the ballots should end up. With how all over the place this awards season seems to be, that could change by the time I get to the end of each section, but one thing is certain: A new contender for MVP has emerged.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis as a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
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Five honorable mentions: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+8000 to win)
Last week, we talked about Jayson Tatum’s return potentially hurting the MVP voting for Brown. Not that Brown was going to garner a lot of top votes, but he should still finish top five for how his tremendous season has gone. The only danger he would have of falling outside of the top five is if Dončić, Edwards or Brunson goes on a tear, along with their teams, as Boston falters. That hasn’t happened, so Brown should be pretty safe.
**4.**Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+2500 to win, previously third)
Despite having a great season, I’m not sure what could happen (other than the 65-game rule hitting competitors) to move Cunningham into the top three. None of that is a slight on him. His numbers are awesome. He’s averaging 25.1 points and 9.9 assists, very close to becoming the ninth player in history to average 25 points and 10 assists in a season. His defense has been phenomenal. And his team has the top record in the Eastern Conference and is still in the hunt for the best record in the NBA. But the others have surpassed his season, and not hitting 65 games is the only thing that can suppress their campaigns.
3. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+2000 to win, previously second)
In 17 games since returning from the knee injury, Jokić has averaged 27.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, 9.2 assists and 4.2 turnovers with shooting splits of 52.1/31.7/80.0. The Nuggets are 7-10 in those games, and they’ve slid down the West standings. They’re in real danger of not finishing in the top six if they don’t turn things around quickly. Those numbers you just read are excellent, but they’re not the same as the 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 11.0 assists and 3.5 turnovers with 60.5/43.5/85.3 shooting splits Jokić posted pre-injury.
This may feel like nitpicking, and it is to a certain extent. You kind of have to when it comes to figuring out MVP hierarchy. All season, I’ve felt like Jokić was the best choice for MVP, but the play (while still great) and results on the court (for understandable reasons) just aren’t at the same level after he got hurt. Maybe he can turn that around in the final push, but he also seems to be dragging his leg a lot of the time.
2. **Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1400, previously fourth)**1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-800 to win)
There’s a very real scenario in which I could see Wembanyama winning MVP without needing Gilgeous-Alexander to be hit by the 65-game rule.
His numbers are there, with 24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 3.0 blocks along with 50.6/36.0/81.5 shooting splits. His impact (grain of salt on the statistics) is there, with the Spurs having a plus-15.7 net rating with him on the court and a mark of minus-0.2 with him off the court. He’s the best defensive player in the world (spoiler alert for below), and his team has the second-best record in the league, not far behind Oklahoma City. His team has mostly dominated the defending MVP and lead MVP candidate’s team during the regular season. Everything is there for Wembanyama to be this season’s MVP without the 65-game rule helping him out. It’s also something that could keep him off the ballot, as he’s missed 14 games. Is that too many to get him the MVP over Gilgeous-Alexander?
The reigning MVP has played in three more games than Wemby so far this season. Much like Wemby, Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers are also ridiculous. He’s averaging 31.7 points, 6.6 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals with 55.1/38.3/89.5 shooting splits. His impact (again, a grain of salt with the stat)? The Thunder have a plus-14.9 net rating with their MVP on the court, and they’re plus-4.7 with him off the floor. That’s not quite the chasm between Wemby’s on-and-off numbers, but it’s still significant. In fact, the Thunder really can’t score at all without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, as their offensive rating falls 10.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench. Also, the Thunder have the NBA’s best record, they’re the most dominant team and they’ve missed their second-best player for 40 games while their third-best player has missed 10.
The cases between the two aren’t as far apart as most would assume, especially when you factor in that they’ve played nearly the same number of games. It’s just hard to go against Gilgeous-Alexander right now.
Rookie of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
**3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+15000 to win)****2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (+135 to win)**1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (-180 to win)
Knueppel has firmly taken control of this race, and it feels like name recognition is the main thing keeping Flagg in the conversation.
That’s not a knock on Flagg because he’s still deserving of recognition. However, there is a massive gulf of games played between them (Knueppel has played in 13 more games), and a tiebreaker of the Hornets’ games mattering far more than the Mavericks games would likely tip the conversation anyway. Flagg recently returned from the foot injury, but he’s been pretty rough in those four games. He has 65 points on 78 shots with 34.6/25.0/80.0 shooting splits in those four games. He’ll have to finish very strongly to wrestle back control.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
**3. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves (+4000 to win)****2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+1000 to win)**1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-1600 to win)
Gobert and Holmgren are having very good defensive seasons, and yet there is not a chance they will come close to winning this award or even make the voting competitive if Wembanyama qualifies by hitting 65 games.
Wemby has 77 total blocks in his last 21 games, and the Spurs are nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the court. While I don’t believe it will happen this season, we’re not just going to start having the conversation if Wembanyama can become the fourth player in NBA history to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season (Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all done it once). We’re going to start wondering if Wemby ends up with more seasons of MVP and DPOY in the same campaign than all three of them combined.
Sixth Man of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat
**3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (+325 to win)**2. **Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+140 to win, previously first)**1. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+650 to win, previously second)
Reid hasn’t had a great February or March, and it’s a big reason the door is wide-open for either Johnson or Sheppard to get themselves into the mix. Jaquez has a strong case in Miami, as well. Sheppard has been on fire as of late, and that’s thrust him into the second-best betting odds. However, Johnson’s consistency in San Antonio gives him the edge. While the shooting has been a bit inconsistent, his impact on the court is steady. He allows the Spurs to play small so often, and they haven’t missed a beat when Harrison Barnes is off the floor.
Coach of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
3. **J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-185 to win, previously first)**2. **Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+1100 to win, previously third)**1. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+200 to win, previously second)
While the betting odds still favor Bickerstaff, the Pistons’ recent falter should put either Mazzulla or Johnson in the lead. Neither the Celtics nor the Spurs were supposed to be in their current positions. Due to Tatum’s injury and the Celtics’ roster cut, they were supposed to be lucky to have a Play-In Tournament spot. The Spurs were supposed to rise from a team outside the top 10 in the West to a team competing in the Play-In. Both teams are strongly the No. 2 seed in their respective conferences and have dealt with plenty of potential setbacks in the process. I’d give Mazzulla the slight edge.
Most Improved Player
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Two honorable mentions: Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks | Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
**3. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks (+200 to win, previously second)**2. **Jalen Duren, Pistons (-190 to win, previously first)**1. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+1400 to win, previously honorable mention)
I wasn’t sure if George was going to be eligible (yes, Most Improved Player falls under the 65-game rule) for this award. But after suffering an ankle injury and recently missing nine of 10 games, he’s back on the court. His play isn’t quite as spectacular in his handful of games back, but George might be the definition of the improvement in the NBA this year.
Guys like Avdija, Johnson and Duren were already very good NBA players, and there’s definitely an argument for whether or not it’s harder to go from a good player to an All-Star or All-NBA-level guy. George was pretty terrible during his first two NBA seasons but flipped a switch this season. Rollins also has an argument for being in this conversation, but George went from a guy you don’t really count on for the future to a guy who might earn himself a massive contract extension this offseason.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic