By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-01-15 10:15:42
NBA赛季已近半，这也是我开始思考各大奖项归属的最早时间点。一旦我们基本确定了全明星阵容，就可以真正开始深入探讨这些奖项的可能去向了。
从本周开始直到常规赛结束，我们将每周跟进我对主要个人奖项竞争格局的看法。不过，本赛季我们将首先使用 BetMGM 的当前博彩赔率来开启这个系列。
以下是“奖项观察”栏目的运作方式：自2019年以来，我一直是受邀参与年度奖项评选的媒体成员之一。我非常严肃地对待这份荣誉，并努力选出我认为最值得获奖的球员。由于投票是公开的，我也不希望因为投出一张荒谬的选票而沦为笑柄，被网友们永远“鞭尸”。我认为这份分析很好地衡量了我的想法/研究，以及The Athletic的其他作者和读者们所提交的观点。
就像互联网上所有类型的排名和观点一样，我敢肯定，这篇文章会收获一片赞同与握手，而不是争吵和谩骂。如果你有不同意见，请在评论区留言。让我们先把话说在前面：
- 是的，我看了比赛。
- 是的，我研究了数据。
- 不，我并不讨厌那位球员。
- 不，我并不讨厌那支球队。
- 如果你有不同意见并想对我开火，请便。但请尽量言之有物。我对你偏袒自己喜欢的球员或球队的立场兴趣不大，但我非常想了解那些我可能错过或考虑不周的潜在视角。对于这些奖项评选，我乐于吸收尽可能多的信息和观点。
- 在每个奖项部分，我都会结合我的思考以及我认为该奖项在历史上投票时所强调的因素，给出我的评选标准。
- 别忘了65场规则！单赛季出场未满65场的球员将没有资格参评MVP、年度最佳防守球员或最快进步球员。
让我们进入正题。（赔率和数据截至周三比赛前。）
MVP
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有无缘评选风险的球员： 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)，丹佛掘金（缺阵9场）| 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，圣安东尼奥马刺（缺阵14场）| 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，密尔沃基雄鹿（缺阵14场）| 斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry)，金州勇士（缺阵11场）
五位荣誉提名： 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，休斯顿火箭 | 斯蒂芬·库里，金州勇士 | 多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士 | 泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，费城76人 | 安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，明尼苏达森林狼
5. 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯（赔率+5000）
布伦森又打出了一个出色的赛季。他在MVP投票中的最高排名是两年前的第五名。尼克斯正努力在东部联盟中登顶，而布伦森场均贡献职业生涯新高的28.9分。他在迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 的体系中取得了巨大成功，60.0%的真实命中率证实了这一点。布伦森参选的唯一问题在于，尼克斯在竞争开放的东部表现未达预期。尼克斯目前正与波士顿凯尔特人、多伦多猛龙和费城76人争夺二号种子的位置，而底特律活塞则占据着头把交椅。本赛季还有足够的时间让尼克斯冲到第一。这或许是布伦森在MVP竞赛中跻身前三的必要条件。
4. 杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人（赔率+3000）
我想你无法要求布朗打出比这更好的半个赛季了。他有充分的理由让自己的排名继续攀升。1）他的表现堪称惊艳。他场均接近30分（29.5分），并且每场送出5.0次助攻，这两项都是生涯新高。与此同时，他还打出了职业生涯最高的真实命中率（58.8%），并在防守端表现出色。2）“故事性”会给他加分不少。杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 在去年季后赛跟腱撕裂后，本赛季还未出战。管理层出于财务考虑对球队进行了大换血，很多人都怀疑凯尔特人能否打进季后赛。但布朗带领他们进入了前四。3）65场规则似乎将淘汰几个大牌球员。这样一来，布朗在MVP竞争中需要跨越的障碍就更少了。
3. 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)，底特律活塞（赔率+1400）
尽管活塞队相较于赛季初的统治级表现略有下滑，坎宁安仍然是联盟中最顶尖的球员之一。这位底特律球星场均几乎拿下两双，贡献26.7分和9.7次助攻，均为生涯新高。他的篮板（6.2个）也追平了生涯最高纪录。他的防守同样可圈可点，在底特律的体系和执行中表现得非常出色。如果说有什么问题，那就是活塞需要在进攻端给他提供一些帮助，以确保他们在季后赛中有足够的火力。也许他的外线投射不尽如人意，但坎宁安能频繁地站上罚球线，这帮助他创造了职业生涯最高的真实命中率（57.7%）。对于联盟战绩第二好的球队的当家球星来说，这表现相当不错了。
2. 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)，洛杉矶湖人（赔率+700）
这个排名似乎有些高了。倒不是说卢卡的表现不够出色，但感觉上，他的名字、球衣以及得分数据（33.6分）在很大程度上推高了博彩赔率，而不是因为他真的是NBA第二有价值的球员。显然，如果文班亚马或约基奇有望满足出场数要求，东契奇的排名就会下滑。他已经缺席了七场比赛，如果再扭伤脚踝或拉伤腿筋，本赛季能否达标还是个未知数。此外，他的防守简直糟糕透顶，他的三分命中率（32.0%）也是如此。但他确实带领一支湖人队打出了23胜14负的超预期战绩，并且他是在勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 不再是那个无所不能的勒布朗，以及奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 缺席大量比赛的情况下做到的。
1. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆（赔率-425）
如果不是膝伤让他徘徊在出场资格的边缘，约基奇现在本该是榜首。尽管如此，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大也是一位当之无愧的候选人。这感觉可能有点平淡，因为雷霆开局打出了历史级的统治力，但在接下来的一个多月里却（对他们而言）反常地陷入了挣扎。但吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的表现一直令人难以置信，场均砍下31.9分，送出6.4次助攻，并打出了（即便对他来说也）高达66.7%的真实命中率。他仍然是最佳球队中的最佳球员。只是因为约基奇的伤病，这场竞争感觉没那么酷了。不过，这并不是SGA需要为此道歉的事情。
年度最佳防守球员
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有无缘评选风险的球员： 文班亚马 | 科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)，洛杉矶快船（缺阵10场）
已无缘评选的球员： 安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)，达拉斯独行侠（缺阵20场）
两位荣誉提名： 阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)，休斯顿火箭 | 巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)，迈阿密热火
3. 文班亚马（赔率+600）
我很惊讶文班亚马出现在了DPOY的赔率榜上，却没有出现在MVP的赔率榜上。这并非关乎他的MVP候选资格，而是因为他已经因65场规则而面临可能错失这两个奖项的风险。如果没有这条规则，他完全有资格同时竞争这两个奖项。而且，如果要把他列入这里的候选名单，为什么不把他排在第一呢？他的作用远不止于盖帽。他的存在感和执行力改变了一切。当他在场时，马刺拥有联盟第一的防守。当他不在场时，他们的防守只是联盟平均水平。
上赛季的一场比赛中，维克托·文班亚马和鲁迪·戈贝尔在争抢篮板位置。(Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
2. 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)，明尼苏达森林狼（赔率+300）
戈贝尔赛季初的表现有些慢热，尤其是在对阵顶级强队时，这和他森林狼的队友们情况类似。然而，在过去一个半月里，他在防守端的表现堪称惊艳。就像文班一样，当戈贝尔在场时，他的球队是联盟最佳防守的有力竞争者；而没有他，球队在防守端则显得相当糟糕。就戈贝尔而言，有他在场时，他的球队防守效率排在第二，而没有他时则会跌至联盟倒数前五。
1. 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，雷霆（赔率-125）
我认为霍姆格伦赢得DPOY并非天方夜谭，甚至可能就是今年。但这个赔率给人的感觉有点像是：“谁是联盟最佳防守球队的盖帽王？”我们能确定霍姆格伦是本赛季他队内最好的防守者吗？难道不应该是亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 或卢·多尔特 (Lu Dort)？还有凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 呢，他可是联盟顶级的抢断高手之一。这感觉有点像我们把DPOY通过霍姆格伦颁给了雷霆全队的防守，这与2015年1月亚特兰大老鹰队的首发五虎获得东部月最佳球员有异曲同工之妙。霍姆格伦的防守确实非常出色，但我很惊讶他会是赔率最高的球员。
年度最佳新秀
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两位荣誉提名： 塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward)，孟菲斯灰熊 | 德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen)，新奥尔良鹈鹕
3. VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，费城76人（赔率+2500）
一个艰难的十一月让埃奇库姆的投篮命中率有点低（42.6%），但他的三分命中率很高（38.2%）。投篮命中率真的是你唯一能批评埃奇库姆的地方。我曾听一些球探和专家说，埃奇库姆在大学里有所保留，是为了成为一个好队友，确保每个人都有机会发光发热。这一点在NBA级别已经展现出来了。他的贡献方式稳定得多，并且与马克西形成了完美的互补。
2. 科恩·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂（赔率+500）
克努佩尔的表现正如那些坚信他的球风能无缝衔接至NBA的专家们所预期的那样出色。到目前为止，事实的确如此，而且这不仅仅是因为黄蜂队战绩不佳，总得有人得分。在过去几周里，他为球队进攻的转机做出了重大贡献。他场均得到19.1分、5.1个篮板和3.6次助攻，真实命中率高达惊人的63.8%。而且，他几乎没有经历过任何低潮期。
1. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，达拉斯独行侠（赔率-1000）
在他的前18场比赛中，弗拉格打得不错，数据也还算扎实。他场均得到15.9分、6.4个篮板和3.1次助攻，投篮三项命中率为45.1%/26.1%/79.3%。人们对他能立即产生影响的期望更高，但别忘了，他只是一个18岁的孩子，在一支糟糕的球队里打着自己不熟悉的位置。但从那以后呢？我的天。在过去21场比赛中，弗拉格场均贡献21.9分、6.3个篮板和5.2次助攻，投篮三项命中率提升至50.0%/32.8%/83.0%。此前曾有人讨论，是否有人能超越他夺得年度最佳新秀，特别是克努佩尔或埃奇库姆。但现在，即便是他们出色的表现，似乎也只是在弗拉格身后争夺选票榜的第二名。
年度最佳第六人
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两位荣誉提名： 安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black)，奥兰多魔术 | 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)，迈阿密热火
3. 里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，休斯顿火箭（赔率+800）
在最佳第六人赔率榜前五名中，谢泼德的场均得分最低，为12.9分。场均得分在争夺该奖项中至关重要，但谢泼德的投篮效率极高，并且防守积极，场均能贡献1.4次抢断。在弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 缺阵期间，休斯顿非常需要他，但谢泼德要击败两位荣誉提名球员将会很困难。
2. 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)，马刺（赔率+450）
约翰逊可能是我目前的选择。尽管他的场均得分（13.6分）在这一组中排名第四，但他的篮板（6.3个）和整体投篮能力都优于其他人。他的投篮命中率高达56.5%，三分命中率也达到了41.5%。这两项数据都是这五名球员中最高的。马刺需要他在场上的每一分钟，而他也从替补席上提供了完美的火力支援。
1. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)，明尼苏达森林狼（赔率+300）
里德两年前曾获得该奖项，我个人认为，这部分解释了为什么他目前是赔率上的大热门。他是这群人中大家最熟悉的名字。这并非要贬低他的表现。里德对森林狼的作用巨大。他的场均得分（14.6分）低于布莱克（15.7分）和哈克斯（15.9分）。但他能够与戈贝尔或朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 灵活搭档，这意味着森林狼几乎可以应对任何对手的阵容。
年度最佳教练
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两位荣誉提名： 伊梅·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka)，休斯顿火箭 | 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla)，波士顿凯尔特人
3. 乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)，菲尼克斯太阳（赔率+350）
对我来说，奥特和马祖拉在评选理由上基本可以互换，他们都符合“这支球队本赛季的表现远超预期”这一标准。这是获得年度最佳教练荣誉和提名的重要因素。是的，统治力很重要，但一支球队出人意料地变得出色或伟大是一个巨大的加分项。没人想到太阳队会打得好，更别说这么好了。甚至连马特·伊什比亚 (Mat Ishbia) 本人也没想到。他只是想要娱乐性。奥特让他们打出了不懈的防守，他们整个赛季都将是西部前六席位的有力竞争者。
乔丹·奥特带领菲尼克斯在西部季后赛版图中站稳了脚跟。(Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images)
2. 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，马刺（赔率+350）
我们曾预料马刺会取得进步，但对于约翰逊在他执教的第一个完整赛季能带来什么，我们并不完全清楚。我们看到的是一个巨大的飞跃，他们不再是寄望于获得一个季后赛席位，而是希望争夺西部的二号种子。是的，文班亚马对他们来说至关重要，但他也缺席了大量比赛。马刺的节奏丝毫未受影响。约翰逊让他们推快节奏，并完美地利用了球队的运动能力。
1. J.B.·比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)，底特律活塞（赔率+170）
看起来比克斯塔夫这次是要完成他去年未竟的事业，拿下年度最佳教练奖了——上赛季肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson) 击败了他。今年，比克斯塔夫执教着分区战绩第一的球队，而且这是在众多球员缺阵的情况下取得的。他在塑造球队文化、让年轻队伍将防守作为团队标签方面做得非常出色。这个奖项现在大概率是他的囊中之物了。
最快进步球员
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有无缘评选风险的球员： 文班亚马 | 奥斯汀·里夫斯，洛杉矶湖人（缺阵15场）
两位荣誉提名： 迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.)，布鲁克林篮网 | 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，亚特兰大老鹰
3. 基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George)，犹他爵士（赔率+1200）
65场规则适用于最快进步球员，这有点奇怪，对吧？如果你错过了，这里我再提醒一下我的观点：我认为二年级球员不应该被认真考虑为MIP的候选人。我认为你至少应该进入第三个赛季。乔治正是这个奖项设立初衷的完美范例。在他生涯的前两个赛季，他看起来并不具备成才的潜质。他不算糟糕，但效率不高也不稳定。本赛季，他的得分上涨（从16.8分到23.8分），投篮效率提升（真实命中率从53.9%到60.9%），助攻也增加了（从5.6次到6.9次）。
2. 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，老鹰（赔率+225）
从表面上看，感觉约翰逊的进步是在上个赛季完成的。他去年确实取得了巨大飞跃，但伤病使他无法持续地留在MIP的讨论中。他只打了36场比赛，所以无论如何都没有资格。但他今年设法变得更好了。他的场均得分增加了近5分，同时他的助攻率几乎翻了一番，而失误率却没有明显增加。并且，他从生涯前四个赛季32.3%的三分射手，变成了本赛季37.0%的三分射手。他进步如此之大，以至于老鹰将球队的钥匙从特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 手中交给了他。
1. 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者（赔率-185）
阿夫迪亚的两项关键数据是他的场均得分增加了超过9分（从16.9分到26.1分），以及他的场均助攻从3.9次增加到6.9次。开拓者的伤病迫使阿夫迪亚成为这支球队的主要发起者，而他非常出色地适应了这个角色。他的投篮分布和效率也非常优秀，我们看到这位开拓者前锋打出了职业生涯最佳的61.2%的真实命中率。他已经从一个不错的角色球员，成长为一名应该入选全明星的球员。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：SGA MVP repeat? Who has Rookie of the Year edge? Latest NBA Awards Watch
SGA MVP repeat? Who has Rookie of the Year edge? Latest NBA Awards Watch
We’re about halfway through the NBA season, and that’s the earliest I’ll start thinking about awards. Once we’re pretty sure who the All-Stars are going to be, we can really start diving into where the awards might go.
Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. However, we’ll start things off this season by using BetMGM’s current betting odds.
Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis is a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.
As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:
- Yes, I watch the games.
- Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
- No, I don’t hate that player.
- No, I don’t hate that team.
- If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
- With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
- Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.
Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
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On-track to be ineligible: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (missed nine games) | Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (missed 14) | Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (missed 14) | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors (missed 11)
Five honorable mentions: Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (+5000 to win)
Brunson is having another stellar season. The highest he’s ever finished in MVP voting is fifth, which happened two years ago. The Knicks are trying to find their way to the top of the Eastern Conference, and Brunson is putting up a career-high 28.9 points per game. He’s finding great success in Mike Brown’s system, as his 60.0 percent true shooting confirms. The only issue with Brunson’s candidacy is that New York is underperforming expectations in the wide-open East. The Knicks are battling it out with the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers right now for the No. 2 seed, while the Detroit Pistons hold onto the top spot. There’s plenty of season for the Knicks to wind up No. 1. That may be what it takes for Brunson to finish in the top three of the MVP race.
4. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+3000 to win)
I’m not sure you could ask Brown to have a better first half. He’ll have a strong case to move up for a few reasons. 1) His play has been spectacular. He’s nearly averaging 30 points per game (29.5), and he’s at 5.0 assists per game. Those are both career highs. He’s doing that while also posting the best true shooting percentage (58.8) of his career and playing great defense. 2) The narrative is going to help him a lot. Jayson Tatum has yet to play this season after tearing his Achilles in last year’s playoffs. The front office gutted the team for financial purposes, and a lot of people wondered if the C’s would even make the playoffs. Brown has them in the top four. 3) The 65-game rule is going to eliminate a couple of big names, or so it seems. There will be fewer hurdles for Brown to clear to be in the running for MVP.
3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1400 to win)
Even with the Pistons slipping a little bit from their early-season dominance, Cunningham remains one of the best players in the league. The Detroit star is nearly averaging a double-double with 26.7 points and 9.7 assists per game, both of which are career highs. His rebounding (6.2) is tied for a career high. His defense is also right there, as he’s been really good in Detroit’s system and execution on that end. If anything, the Pistons need to give him some help on offense to make sure they have enough in the postseason. Maybe the outside shooting isn’t quite what you’d want it to be, but Cunningham gets to the free-throw line a lot, and it’s helping produce the best true shooting percentage (57.7) of his career. Not bad for the star of the team with the second-best record in the league.
2. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (+700 to win)
This seems high. Not that Luka hasn’t been excellent, but this feels a little bit too much like the name, the jersey and the scoring average (33.6) are moving the betting odds in this direction, instead of him actually being the second-most valuable player in the NBA. Obviously, if Wembanyama or Jokić were on track to qualify, Dončić would be pushed down the list. He has missed seven games already and isn’t a lock to qualify this season if he turns an ankle or pulls a hamstring. Also, his defense has been unbelievably bad, as has his 3-point shooting (32.0 percent). But he does have a Lakers squad overperforming at 23-14, and he’s endured LeBron James not being LeBron and Austin Reaves missing significant time.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-425 to win)
Jokić would be the top guy right now if not for his knee injury putting him on the border of not qualifying. Still, Gilgeous-Alexander is a more than worthy candidate. It might feel a little flat because the Thunder started historically dominant and then sputtered uncharacteristically (for them) over the next month or so. But Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible, scoring 31.9 points, dishing out 6.4 assists per game and posting an absurd (even for him) 66.7 true shooting percentage. He’s still the best player on the best team. The race just doesn’t feel as cool because of the Jokić injury. That’s nothing SGA should have to apologize for, though.
Defensive Player of the Year
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On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama | Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers (missed 10 games)
Ineligible: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks (missed 20 games)
Two honorable mentions: Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets | Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
3. Wembanyama (+600 to win)
I’m a little shocked that Wembanyama is included on DPOY odds and not the MVP odds. Not because of his MVP candidacy, but because he’s already on alert for possibly missing out on both awards because of the 65-game rule. Without the rule, he’d be more than deserving of consideration for both awards. And if you’re going to make him eligible here, why wouldn’t he be first? He’s more than just the blocked shots. His presence and execution change everything. With him on the floor, the Spurs have the best defense in the NBA. Without him on the floor, they’re league average.
Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert battle for rebounding positioning during a matchup last season. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
2. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+300 to win)
Gobert had a bit of a slow start to the season, mostly against the top teams like the rest of his Timberwolves teammates. However, his play over the last month and a half has been pretty incredible on the defensive end. Like Wemby, Gobert’s team is in the running for the best defense in the league when he’s on the court, and it looks pretty awful trying to stop anybody without him. In Gobert’s case, his team would be second with him on and drop down to the bottom five without him.
1. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (-125 to win)
I don’t think it would be ridiculous for Holmgren to win DPOY. Maybe even this year. But these odds feel a little bit like, “Who is the leading shot-blocker on the league’s best defense?” Are we sure Holmgren is the best defender on his team this season? Wouldn’t it be Alex Caruso or Lu Dort? What about Cason Wallace, who has been one of the top thieves in the league? This feels a bit like we’re giving DPOY to the Thunder’s defense through Holmgren, not totally unlike the Atlanta Hawks starting lineup getting East Player of the Month in January 2015. Holmgren has been really good defensively, but I’m surprised he’s the leading odds-getter.
Rookie of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+2500 to win)
A rough November made Edgecome’s shooting percentage a little low (42.6 percent), but his 3-point percentage is high (38.2 percent). The field-goal percentage is really the only thing you can criticize Edgecombe for. I had some scouts and experts tell me Edgecombe was holding back in college to be a good teammate and make sure everybody could try to shine. That shows at the NBA level already. He’s far more consistent in how he contributes, and he’s complementing Maxey perfectly.
2. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+500 to win)
Knueppel has been as good as advertised by the experts who swore his game would translate to the NBA level. It has so far, and it’s not just because the Hornets are bad and somebody has to score. He’s majorly contributed to their offense turning a corner the last few weeks. He’s averaging 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game with a ridiculous 63.8 percent true shooting. He hasn’t really had any lulls, either.
1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (-1000 to win)
In his first 18 games, Flagg was playing well and had some solid stats. He averaged 15.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists with 45.1/26.1/79.3 shooting splits. He came in with higher expectations to make an impact immediately, but he was also playing out of position on a bad team as an 18-year-old. Since then? My goodness. Over his last 21 games, Flagg is averaging 21.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.2 assists with 50.0/32.8/83.0 shooting splits. There was a conversation about someone overtaking him for Rookie of the Year, especially Knueppel or Edgecombe. Now, even their good play seems to be racing to second in the voting behind Flagg.
Sixth Man of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Anthony Black, Orlando Magic | Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
3. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets (+800 to win)
Of the top five in the sixth-man odds, Sheppard has the lowest scoring average at 12.9 per game. Scoring average goes a long way in securing this award, but Sheppard has been hyper-efficient shooting the ball and has active hands with 1.4 steals per game. Houston has really needed him without Fred VanVleet, but it’ll be difficult for Sheppard to fight off the two honorable mentions.
2. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+450 to win)
Johnson would probably be my pick right now. Even though he’s fourth among the group in points per game (13.6), his rebounding (6.3) and overall shot-making have been superior to everybody else. He’s making 56.5 percent of his shots and 41.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Both of those numbers are the highest for these five players. The Spurs have needed every minute he’s on the court, and he’s provided the perfect boost off the bench.
1. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves (+300 to win)
Reid won it two years ago, and part of me believes that’s why he’s the odds-on favorite currently. He’s the familiar name of the group. That’s not to discount his play. Reid has been huge for the Wolves. His scoring average (14.6) is lower than Black’s (15.7) and Jaquez’s (15.9). But his interchangeable ability to play next to Gobert or Julius Randle means the Wolves can match up with just about everybody.
Coach of the Year
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Two honorable mentions: Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets | Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics
3. Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns (+350 to win)
Ott and Mazzulla are essentially interchangeable to me for the reason of qualifying the “this team is way better than anticipated this season” criterion. That’s a big part of COY honors and consideration. Yes, dominance matters, but a team coming out of nowhere to be good or great is a massive plus. Nobody thought the Suns would be good, let alone this good. Not even Mat Ishbia. He just wanted entertainment. Ott has them defending relentlessly, and they’ll threaten for a top-six spot in the West all season.
Jordan Ott has Phoenix firmly in the West playoff picture. (Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images)
2. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+350 to win)
We expected the Spurs to take a step forward, but we didn’t quite know what to expect from a Johnson squad in his first full season as the head coach. What we’ve seen is a massive leap, and instead of hoping to get a playoff spot, they’re hoping to get the No. 2 seed in the West. Yes, Wembanyama has been huge for them, but he’s also missed a ton of time. The Spurs aren’t missing a beat. Johnson has them pushing the tempo and utilizing their athleticism perfectly.
1. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons (+170 to win)
It looks like Bickerstaff is here to finish the job of getting Coach of the Year after Kenny Atkinson beat him out for it last season. This year, Bickerstaff has the top team in the conference, and it’s come with plenty of players missing time. He’s been tremendous for setting the culture and getting his young team to make defense their team identity. The award is probably his to lose at this point.
Most Improved Player
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On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama | Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers (missed 15 games)
Two honorable mentions: Michael Porter Jr., Brooklyn Nets | Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks
3. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+1200 to win)
It’s weird that the 65-game rule applies to Most Improved Player, right? Here’s my reminder in case you’ve missed it: I don’t believe second-year players should be taken seriously for MIP. I think you should, at least, be in your third year. George is the perfect example of for whom this award is supposed to be. He didn’t look like he had the goods in his first two seasons. He wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t efficient or consistent. His scoring is up (16.8 to 23.8), his shooting is up (53.9 percent true shooting to 60.9) and his assists are up (5.6 to 6.9).
2. Jalen Johnson, Hawks (+225 to win)
On the surface, it feels like Johnson made this improvement in the previous season. He took a huge leap last year, but injuries kept him from being consistently in the conversation for MIP. He only played in 36 games, so he was ineligible anyway. But he managed to get even better this year. His scoring is up nearly five points per game, but he’s also nearly doubled his assist percentage while not really increasing his turnover rate. And he’s gone from a 32.3 percent 3-point shooter his first four seasons to 37.0 percent this season. He improved so much that the Hawks turned over the keys to the franchise from Trae Young to him.
1. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (-185 to win)
The two big numbers for Avdija are his scoring average going up over nine points per game (16.9 to 26.1) and his assists going from 3.9 to 6.9 per game. The Blazers’ injuries have forced Avdija to be the lead initiator on this team, and he’s taken to that role really well. His shot profile and efficiency are really good too, as we’ve seen the Blazers forward post a career-best 61.2 percent true shooting. He’s gone from a nice role player to somebody who should be an All-Star.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic