By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-02-03 22:50:24
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 可能很快就会改换门庭。关于这位超级巨星前锋准备寻找新东家的传闻已成现实，因此他与密尔沃基雄鹿 (Milwaukee Bucks) 的分道扬镳似乎不可避免，甚至可能迫在眉睫。扬尼斯最近遭遇了伤病，这引发了人们猜测他在休赛期之前不会被交易，但报道显示，多支球队正试图在当下就采取行动。
据 ESPN 的夏姆斯·查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 报道，表现得更为积极的潜在买家似乎是勇士、森林狼和热火。据传尼克斯是扬尼斯的首选目的地，也是一个潜在选择，但可能缺乏密尔沃基所追求的年轻才俊和选秀权。
据报道，圣安东尼奥马刺 (San Antonio Spurs) 尚未与雄鹿进行任何谈判，这也在情理之中。但他们可能会参与进来，目的不是为了得到扬尼斯，而是为了确保他留在东部，并在这一过程中提升自身实力——通过确保迈阿密热火 (Miami Heat) 得到这位“希腊怪兽”，同时换回安德鲁·维金斯 (Andrew Wiggins) 作为参与交易的回报。
交易方案
马刺送出哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)、凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 以及 2027 年老鹰的首轮签至热火，换取安德鲁·维金斯。
随后，热火送出泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro)、特里·罗齐尔 (Terry Rozier)、凯莱尔·韦尔 (Kel’el Ware)、小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)、热火 2030 年和 2032 年的首轮签、2029 年和 2031 年的选秀权互换权，以及亚特兰大老鹰 2027 年的首轮签，以此换取扬尼斯·阿德托昆博和鲍比·波蒂斯 (Bobby Portis)。
为什么热火和雄鹿会这样做
热火在休赛期可以提供四个自己的选秀权，但由于斯特皮恩条款 (Stepien rule) 的限制，在交易截止日前只能提供两个首轮签。马刺送出的老鹰 2027 年首轮签将为热火提供一个关键筹码，使他们现在的报价对雄鹿更具吸引力。任何真正得到扬尼斯的球队预计都会实力不俗，因此获得其他球队的选秀权极具价值。正处于特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 时代转折点的老鹰明年可能会成为一支乐透球队，所以这个选秀权非常诱人。失去维金斯会削弱热火的深度，但这可能是确保获得第三个可交易选秀权的唯一途径，而且他们还有可能留住巴恩斯。
对于雄鹿来说，获得一个无需等待多年就能兑现的选秀权可能是对球迷的一个交代，而迈阿密的报价可能是目前最优秀的方案，因为它提供了一名准全明星球员用于后续操作（希罗）、一名顶级新秀（韦尔）、一名近年的首轮秀（雅库齐奥尼斯）、一份大额到期合同（罗齐尔，再加上可能与巴恩斯配合进行的凯尔·库兹马平行交易），以及大量的选秀权。他们将进入彻底重建，削减薪资并专注于未来，当扬尼斯和班·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 预计开始走下坡路时，他们将获得来自迈阿密的大部分选秀资产。
马刺并不是唯一能为雄鹿和热火的交易“牵线搭桥”的球队，但他们能提供到期合同来促成第二次平行交易，并提供第三个选秀权来增加对雄鹿的吸引力，这使他们成为最合适的第三方之一。
为什么马刺会这样做
马刺考虑进行这笔交易有几个原因。第一个原因很简单：安德鲁·维金斯是哈里森·巴恩斯的升级版。这位前状元郎更年轻、运动能力更强、防守更好，而且在过去五年里的三分命中率达到了 38%。巴恩斯在射手稳定性上稍占上风，且比维金斯更耐用，但他已经快 34 岁了，最近的低迷可能预示着他正在走下坡路。
第二个原因是此举能为下赛季提供保障。巴恩斯将成为自由球员，而维金斯拥有一个预计会执行的球员选项，这将为马刺在锋线位置上提供一名油箱里还有油的高水平老将，作为一份中等规模的到期合同过渡。随着球队薪资变得更高，他们可以尝试交易他或与其分道扬镳。这还可以让他们在朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 变得太贵时放他走，同时不必在卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 准备好之前就强行将他推入首发阵容。
第三个原因是，通过确保热火得到扬尼斯，马刺阻止了西部对手实力的提升。特别是明尼苏达森林狼，如果他们能在保留一定深度的同时加入“希腊怪兽”，他们作为争冠球队将更进一步。他们将立即拥有全联盟最强的二人组：安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 和扬尼斯。至于勇士，虽然即便拥有扬尼斯也不太可能立即成为顶级竞争者，但他们在季后赛中会是一个难缠的对手，而且作为一支目的地球队，可能会吸引其他老将为了加盟斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 和扬尼斯的组合而降薪。
最后，虽然为了一个预计不会改变赛季走势的升级而交易掉一个首轮签看起来代价不小，但 2027 年 NBA 选秀预计将是近年来整体实力较弱的一届。每一届选秀总会有遗珠，正如马刺在 2024 年选中 斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 所证明的那样，所以这不应该是一个草率的决定。但圣安东尼奥可能并不太担心年轻才俊的储备，因为球队在过去三年的选秀中已经拥有了三个前五顺位球员，而且由于拥有与老鹰的互换权，他们仍将保留自己的 2026 年选秀权，该选秀权最终很有可能进入乐透区。
扬尼斯的交易将对联盟的未来产生巨大影响。马刺正处于不同的发展阶段，因此他们不去争夺这笔交易中的头号奖品是合理的。但如果他们能在本赛季及下赛季升级锋线，并在仅付出一个弱选秀届的首轮签的情况下将扬尼斯留在东部，那么参与其中或许是值得的。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：How the Spurs could help keep Giannis in the East while getting better in the process
How the Spurs could help keep Giannis in the East while getting better in the process
Giannis Antetokounmpo could be on the move soon. The rumors about the superstar forward being ready to find a new home have become a reality, so a divorce from the Milwaukee Bucks seems inevitable and perhaps imminent. Antetokounmpo got injured recently, which led to speculation that he wouldn’t be traded until the offseason, but reports indicate that several teams are trying to make a move for him now.
The more motivated prospective buyers appear to be the Warriors, Timberwolves, and Heat, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. The Knicks, reportedly Giannis’ preferred destination, are also an option, but might lack the young talent and picks that Milwaukee is after.
The Spurs have reportedly not engaged the Bucks in any negotiations, which makes sense. But they could get involved not to get Giannis but to keep him in the East and get better in the process, by making sure the Heat get the Greek Freak while getting Andrew Wiggins for their troubles.
The trades
Spurs send Harrison Barnes, Kelly Olynyk, and 2027 Hawks pick to the Heat for Andrew Wiggins.
The Heat then sends Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami’s 2030 and 2032 first-round picks, 2029 and 2031 pick swaps, and Atlanta’s 2027 first-round pick for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis.
Why the Heat and Bucks would do it
The Heat could offer four of their own picks in the offseason, but only two first-round picks at the deadline because of the Stepien rule. The Spurs sending the Hawks’ 2027 first-rounder would give the Heat a key asset to make their offer more appealing to Milwaukee now. Any team that actually gets Giannis is expected to be good, so getting a pick from a different franchise is valuable. The Hawks, who are in transition from Trae Young, could be a lottery team next year, so the pick is intriguing. Losing Wiggins hurts their depth, but it might be the only way to secure a third pick to trade, and they could potentially keep Barnes.
For the Bucks, getting a pick that won’t take years to convey could be a selling point to their fan base, and the Miami offer could be the best one on the table, as it gives them a borderline All-Star to flip (Herro), a blue chip prospect (Kel’el Ware), a recent first-rounder (Jakucionis) a big expiring (Rozier, plus the potential for a parallel trade with Barnes for Kyle Kuzma), and a haul of picks. They go for a full rebuild, shedding salary and focusing on the future, and they would receive the bulk of the draft assets coming from Miami when Giannis and Bam Adebayo are expected to start to slow down.
The Spurs are not the only team that can grease the wheels on a Milwaukee-Miami trade, but they can offer expiring deals that can facilitate a second, parallel move and offer a third pick to sweeten the deal for Milwaukee, which makes them one of the best fits.
Why the Spurs would do it
There are several reasons why the Spurs would consider making the trade. The first one is straightforward: Andrew Wiggins represents an upgrade over Harrison Barnes. The former No. 1 overall pick is younger, more athletic, a better defender, and has shot 38 percent from beyond the arc in the last five years. Barnes has the edge as a marksman and is more durable than Wiggins, but he’s almost 34 years old, and his recent slump could be a sign that he’s slowing down.
The second reason is that the move would provide a safety net for next season. Barnes will be a free agent, while Wiggins has a player option that he’s expected to pick up, giving the Spurs a competent veteran with gas in the tank as a placeholder at one of the forward spots on a mid-sized expiring contract. They can try to flip him or part ways with him as the team becomes more expensive. It could also allow them to let Julian Champagnie walk if he becomes too pricey, while not having to throw Carter Bryant into their starting lineup before he’s ready.
The third reason is that by making sure the Heat get Antetokounmpo, the Spurs are preventing Western teams from improving. The Timberwolves, in particular, could take a step forward as contenders if they can add The Greek Freak to their team while keeping some semblance of depth. They would immediately have the best duo in the league in Anthony Edwards and Antetokounmpo. As for the Warriors, while they would not likely be an immediate contender even with Giannis, they could be a tough out in the playoffs and are a destination franchise that could see other veterans leave money on the table to join a Curry-Antetokounmpo duo.
Finally, while trading a first-round pick for what is not expected to be a season-changing upgrade might seem steep, the 2027 NBA draft is expected to be one of the weakest in a while. There are always gems in every class, as the Spurs proved when they selected Stephon Castle in 2024, so it’s not a decision that should be made lightly. But San Antonio is probably not too concerned in the young talent department, since the franchise has three top-five picks from the past three drafts, and would still keep their 2026 pick, which could end up in the lottery, since they have swap rights with the Hawks.
The Antetokounmpo trade will have massive implications for the future of the league. The Spurs are on a different timeline, so it makes sense for them not to go after the big prize of the transaction, but if they can upgrade at forward for this season and likely the next, and keep Giannis in the East while only trading a first-rounder from a projected bad draft class, it might be worth getting involved.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock