By Mike Finger | San Antonio Express-News (SAEN), 2025-05-15 14:34:59
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
圣安东尼奥马刺队中锋维克托·文班亚马（1）和密尔沃基雄鹿队前锋扬尼斯·阿德托昆博（34）于2025年1月31日星期五在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥的霜冻银行中心下半场比赛中对决。马刺队以144-118击败雄鹿队。
现在是2028年夏天，名为“惊奇计划”的市中心振兴计划正在逐步变为现实。一座新的竞技场正在美洲塔脚下拔地而起。连接相邻高速公路的陆桥上开始生根发芽。
而马刺队，在三年前做出重大举动后，正处在一个令人不安的十字路口。
他们仍然由两位天赋异禀的篮球运动员领衔，到目前为止，他们合作得很好。维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)的组合在两人都健康时，就像所有人预期的那样，拥有着近乎漫画般的统治力。他们刚刚带领马刺队打入NBA总决赛，在那里他们在一场令人心碎的抢七大战中输给了活塞队。
但问题在于：接下来会发生什么？
扬尼斯在过去九个赛季中的八个赛季至少缺席了15场比赛，他将在即将到来的2028-29赛季年满34岁，届时他的年薪将超过7500万美元。在马刺队与文班亚马、德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)完成续约后，这三名球员和扬尼斯的年薪总和将超过2.2亿美元，这使得他们在第五名首发球员，更不用说替补球员的薪资空间之前，就已经远远超过了工资帽。
因此，即使文班-扬尼斯的实验已经成功——马刺队在2026年进入季后赛，在2027年进入分区决赛，考虑到很少有缺乏季后赛经验的球队能够如此迅速地进步，这是一个快速的进展——但仅仅三个赛季后，它是否已经过了巅峰期？
为了使这一切在2028年夏天奏效，马刺队是否必须认真考虑，在他们甚至搬进那个光鲜亮丽的市中心新球馆之前，就拆散他们的核心阵容？
如果他们能够回到时间的长河中，回到那些乒乓球为他们带来了2025年选秀大会上的第二顺位时，抵制扬尼斯的诱惑，直接选择迪伦·哈珀(Dylan Harper)是否更有意义？
也许这并不那么明显。在职业生涯的第三年，哈珀还不是像扬尼斯那样的常年最佳阵容第一队成员，他也不是凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham)。但哈珀迄今为止在雄鹿队的表现令人鼓舞，而且他看起来将在未来几年内仍然是一个重要的组织核心。
如果马刺队在2025年选择来自罗格斯大学的后卫哈珀，而不是交易那个选秀权——以及德文·瓦塞尔(Devin Vassell)、哈里森·巴恩斯(Harrison Barnes)和另外两个首轮选秀权——给雄鹿队来换取扬尼斯，他们可能无法进入2028年的总决赛。但是，如果哈珀的巅峰期与文班亚马和卡斯尔的巅峰期同时到来，那么是否可以认为他们将更有能力在接下来的三到四个六月中（从2029年到2033年）发挥作用？
马刺队肯定会有更多的空间来容纳那些能够在限制性的奢侈税线下发挥作用的补充球员。他们大概也会很好地利用那个在被运送到雄鹿队后最终进入前五名的2027年亚特兰大首轮选秀权。而且现在，扬尼斯那令人难以捉摸的膝盖正在剥夺他一些曾经定义他比赛的超凡运动能力，难道不应该期待某种程度的下滑吗？
这并不是说圣安东尼奥的总经理布莱恩·莱特(Brian Wright)交易得到扬尼斯犯了一个灾难性的错误。这支球队一直都很棒。篮球比赛充满了乐趣，亮点非凡。谁能忘记扬尼斯和文班在对阵湖人队的比赛中上演了不朽的“陀螺面包”，这仍然是有史以来观看次数最多的TikTok片段？
可以肯定的是，马刺队在2028年夏天并没有陷入一个糟糕的境地。很多球队都会愿意和拥有一名33岁的扬尼斯、一名24岁的文班亚马和一名23岁的卡斯尔的球队交换位置，无论他们的支持阵容多么薄弱。
但是，如果莱特、R.C.布福德(R.C. Buford)和马刺队的其他智囊团在2025年意识到，指望马刺队在2028年之前争夺总冠军是不现实的，因为过去三十年里，每一支争夺者都必须首先经历几年的季后赛磨砺？如果他们决定更明智的做法是允许休斯顿、达拉斯或俄克拉荷马城交易得到扬尼斯，让他们享受几年的乐趣，然后在扬尼斯开始衰退时，为马刺队长期统治做好充分的准备呢？
当然，现在在2028年夏天，当一座新的竞技场越来越接近开放，而球队面临一些艰难的选择时，很容易看到所有这些。凭借我们所学到的一切，任何人都可以回顾并说，三年前陷入交易狂潮并获得扬尼斯可能不符合马刺队最好的长期利益。
如果当时有人警告过他们就好了。
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) face each other in the first half at Frost Bank Center on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025, in San Antonio, Texas.
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) sticks close to Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) as the Spurs play defense in the first half at Frost Bank Center on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025, in San Antonio, Texas.
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) blocks a shot by Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the first half at Frost Bank Center on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025, in San Antonio, Texas.
点击查看原文：If Spurs deal for Giannis, might there be second thoughts?
If Spurs deal for Giannis, might there be second thoughts?
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) play against each other in the second half at Frost Bank Center on Friday, Jan. 31, 2025, in San Antonio, Texas. The Spurs defeated the Bucks 144-118.
It’s the summer of 2028, and the downtown revitalization plan known as Project Marvel is coming into real-life view. A new arena is rising at the foot of the Tower of the Americas. Grass is beginning to take root on a land bridge over the adjacent freeway.
And the Spurs, having made their big move three years earlier, sit at an uncomfortable crossroads.
They’re still led by two of the most freakishly talented basketball players in the world, who so far have thrived together. The pairing of Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo is cartoonishly dominant when both are healthy, just like everyone thought it would be. They just took the Spurs to the NBA Finals, where they lost to the Pistons in a Game 7 heartbreaker.
But here’s the rub: What comes next?
Antetokounmpo, who’s missed at least 15 games in eight of the last nine seasons, will turn 34 in the coming 2028-’29 campaign, during which he’ll make more than $75 million. After the Spurs signed Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle to their extensions, those three players and Antetokounmpo will account for more than $220 million in annual salary, which puts them well over the cap before even accounting for a fifth starter, let alone a bench.
So even though the Wemby-Giannis experiment has been successful – the Spurs made the playoffs in 2026 and the conference finals in 2027, a speedy progression considering few teams without postseason experience move that fast – is it already past its prime, three seasons in?
To make this work, here in the summer of 2028, do the Spurs have to think seriously about breaking up the core of their roster before they even move into that glitzy new downtown arena?
And if they could go back in time to when the ping-pong balls gifted them the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft, would it make more sense to resist the Antetokounmpo temptation and just take Dylan Harper?
Maybe that’s not so obvious. Three years into his career, Harper is not a perennial first-team All-NBA selection like Antetokounmpo has been, and he’s not Cade Cunningham yet, either. But what Harper has done so far with the Bucks is encouraging, and he looks like he’ll remain an important play-making piece for years to come.
Had the Spurs taken the Rutgers guard in 2025 instead of trading that pick – along with Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes and two other first-rounders – to Milwaukee for Antetokounmpo, they might not have made the 2028 Finals. But with Harper hitting his peak at the same time Wembanyama and Castle hit theirs, couldn’t an argument be made that they would be in better position to play into the middle of the next three or four Junes, from 2029 to 2033?
The Spurs certainly would have more room to fit difference-making complementary pieces below the restrictive luxury-tax apron. They also presumably would have found good use for that 2027 Atlanta first-rounder that wound up in the Top 5 after it was shipped to Milwaukee. And now that Antetokounmpo’s balky knee is robbing him of a bit of that otherworldly athleticism that defined his game for so long, isn’t some kind of decline to be expected?
This isn’t to say that San Antonio general manager Brian Wright made a catastrophic mistake by trading for Antetokounmpo. The team has been awesome. The basketball has been oodles of fun, and the highlights have been extraordinary. Who can forget when, against the Lakers, Giannis and Wemby pulled off the immortal “Gyro Baguette,” which remains the most-viewed TikTok clip of all time?
To be sure, it’s not as though the Spurs are stuck in a terrible place, here in the summer of 2028. Lots of franchises would switch places with the team featuring a 33-year-old Antetokounmpo, a 24-year-old Wembanyama, and a 23-year-old Castle, no matter how thin the supporting cast might be.
But what if Wright, R.C. Buford and the rest of the Spurs’ brain trust had realized in 2025 that it was unrealistic to expect the Spurs to compete for a championship before 2028, because every contender for the past three decades has had to take a few years of postseason lumps first? And what if they’d decided that the smarter play was to allow Houston or Dallas or Oklahoma City to trade for Antetokounmpo, let them have their fun for a couple of years, then be in perfect position for an extended run of Spurs’ dominance once Giannis started to fade?
Sure, it’s easy to see all of that now, in the summer of 2028, when a new arena is getting closer to opening while the franchise faces some difficult choices. With all we’ve learned, anybody can look back and say it probably wasn’t in the Spurs’ best long-term interests to get caught up in trade hysteria and acquire Antetokounmpo three years ago.
If only somebody would have warned them back then.
By Mike Finger, via San Antonio Express-News