By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-02-03 14:30:00
就在我写完上一篇关于扬尼斯的文章，预言这场大戏将拖到今年夏天之后，查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 报道称雄鹿队现在开始听取关于他们当家球星的报价了。我仍然不相信他会在交易截止日前被送走，但这篇报道也许就是促成交易的某种“毒奶”。
到目前为止，金州勇士、明尼苏达森林狼、纽约尼克斯和迈阿密热火是追求扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 最积极的球队。重要的是，联盟中每支球队在夏天都能提供更多的筹码，因为届时将有更多选秀权符合交易资格，这也是为什么密尔沃基雄鹿不应该急于交易他们的球星。这其中也包括雄鹿队自己，他们目前只有一个可交易的首轮签（2026年），但在休赛期将有三个。如果雄鹿尝试在最后时刻孤注一掷以挽留扬尼斯，他们可以用这两个未来的首轮签交易一位球星，同时利用今年的选秀权增加一名乐透级天才，而今年的选秀权顺位最高可能达到第2顺位。考虑到目前的处境，这可能是最不可能发生的情况，但考虑到雄鹿从未流露过任何交易其球星的意愿，而扬尼斯本人也从未拒绝过顶薪续约协议，这一点仍值得关注。
说到续约，潜在交易的时机也会影响这位“希腊怪兽”签署下一份合同的时间。如果他在截止日前被交易，他的新东家可以在10月份提供顶薪合同（雄鹿也可以），但如果他在夏天被交易，他们必须再等六个月才能与他续约。我怀疑这是否会影响他拿到的顶薪金额，但考虑到扬尼斯最近的伤病史，他自然会觉得越早动笔签字越安心。他在组织内部拥有足够的权力要求在截止日前完成交易，尽管考虑到他在整个事件中一直态度模糊，这种情况不太可能发生——不过，NBA 发生过更奇怪的事情（看看一年前就知道了）。
开场白够多了，让我们进入有趣的部分：交易！我们将盘点那些已经表现出兴趣的球队，以及可能突然杀出的“黑马”候选者。
金州勇士
可交易首轮签：4个
引人关注的球员：吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler)、德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 、 乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga)、摩西·穆迪 (Moses Moody)、布兰登·波齐姆斯基 (Brandin Podziemski)
在对扬尼斯最感兴趣的五支球队中，勇士队能提供的首轮签数量最多，而且无需额外操作就能拼凑出最有吸引力的筹码包。虽然他们没有顶级年轻潜力股，但勇士将被迫使用巴特勒或格林之一来进行薪资匹配——这两名球员都可以被后续转手换取更多选秀权。至关重要的是，这些首轮签还延伸到了本世纪 20 年代末甚至 30 年代，届时史蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 可能已经退役，而扬尼斯要么已经过了巅峰期，要么已经在另一支球队了。如果说有哪支球队的选秀权可能成为“乐透大奖”，那一定是勇士队的。
迈阿密热火
可交易首轮签：2个
引人关注的球员：泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro)、安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins)、凯莱尔·韦尔 (Kel’el Ware)、小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
热火的首轮签没有勇士那么多，但他们能提供的球员要有趣得多。希罗上赛季刚入选过全明星，可以用于薪资匹配，而韦尔是现实中可能被纳入扬尼斯交易筹码的最顶级新秀之一。有趣的是，夏洛特黄蜂拥有热火 2027 年的受保护首轮签，该签位可能转化为 2028 年的无保护首轮签，根据“斯特皮恩条款 (Stepian rule)”，这导致热火无法交易其 2027、2028 或 2029 年的任何首轮签。但是，如果他们给黄蜂一点甜头，说服他们将该选秀权直接改为 2028 年无保护首轮，这将让热火在扬尼斯交易中多出第三个选秀权。考虑到热火的球队文化体系，这些选秀权可能不如勇士的诱人，但他们的年轻球员确实更具吸引力。
X因素：波特兰开拓者
可交易首轮签：雄鹿自己的 2029 年无保护首轮，以及 2028 年和 2030 年的无保护互换权
引人关注的球员：朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)、杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant)、斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson)
在深入探讨森林狼和尼克斯的潜在报价之前，我们需要先讨论开拓者，因为波特兰拥有雄鹿 2028 年和 2030 年的无保护互换权，以及 2029 年的无保护首轮签。我怀疑开拓者是否想直接交易扬尼斯，但他们可以充当雄鹿与另一支球队之间的关键中间人，另一支球队将资产送往波特兰，以换取开拓者将选秀权归还给雄鹿。如果森林狼和尼克斯想加入投标大战，这种情况极有可能发生，而且值得注意的是，有传言称扬尼斯希望能再次与霍勒迪并肩作战。
明尼苏达森林狼
可交易首轮签：0个 （仅有一个 2028 年互换权）
引人关注的球员：朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle)、鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)、杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)、丹特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo)
由于缺乏选秀补偿筹码，森林狼需要拉入第三支球队才能促成扬尼斯的交易。兰德尔和戈贝尔本赛季都打出了全明星水准，但麦克丹尼尔斯应该是这三人中价值最高的：他场均贡献 14.9 分，投篮/三分/罚球命中率为 51.2/44.5/84.9%，我能预见到他在扮演更重要的角色后会像当年的米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 在布鲁克林那样迎来大爆发。明尼苏达得到扬尼斯最可能的路径是交易兰德尔或戈贝尔（或两者皆交易）换取大量选秀权再转交给雄鹿，并搭上麦克丹尼尔斯。波特兰将是促成此类交易最显而易见的第三方，因为他们可以归还雄鹿自己的选秀权，但他们可能同样只对麦克丹尼尔斯感兴趣。这就是为什么三方交易如此难以执行，森林狼需要进行一系列侧面交易才能引起雄鹿的注意。
纽约尼克斯
可交易首轮签：1个
引人关注的球员：卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)、OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、迈尔斯·麦克布莱德 (Deuce McBride)
与明尼苏达类似，纽约目前缺乏选秀资产，但夏天将有三个首轮签可供报价。不过如果着眼于当下，尼克斯得到扬尼斯的唯一途径是至少将唐斯、布里奇斯或阿奴诺比中的一人换成选秀权，并连同他们唯一的潜力股麦克布莱德一起报价给雄鹿。如果他们选择让波特兰介入，开拓者可能会对纽约的一名侧翼感兴趣，但我不确定这是否值得他们放弃雄鹿的选秀权。同样，这几乎是一笔不可能完成的交易，如果扬尼斯要求去纽约，或者这件事拖到夏天，尼克斯的机会将大得多。
“黑马”球队
奥兰多魔术： 魔术队经历了一个动荡的赛季，帕奥洛·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 是其中的重要原因。他们会考虑为了扬尼斯而送出这位所谓的建队基石吗？考虑到班凯罗目前处于“毒丸条款 (poison-pilled)”限制中，这类交易必须在休赛期发生，但如果成行，雄鹿很难找到比这更诱人的年轻球员了。
克利夫兰骑士： 如果你把班凯罗换成埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)，骑士队的情况也完全一样。作为上赛季的 DPOY 获得者和最佳阵容球员，莫布里在进攻端并没有实现人们预想中的飞跃，如果骑士再次在季后赛折戟，他们可能会迎来大动作。另一个变数是多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 的未来，2026-27 赛季是他合同中最后一个保障年份。考虑到这一点，克利夫兰会更倾向于按兵不动，还是会反其道而行之，倾其所有为下赛季的最后一搏而战？
圣安东尼奥马刺： 让我们先明确一点：圣安东尼奥没有表现出对扬尼斯的任何兴趣，并且一直表示他们正在围绕 文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的时间线进行建设。我把他们列在这里纯粹是因为他们拥有雄鹿梦寐以求的筹码：像 斯库特·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 这样的顶级新秀，以及海量的首轮签（4个以上）。考虑到他们拥有的选秀资产，马刺更有可能利用这些筹码充当第三方，帮助另一支球队获得扬尼斯，并换回一名契合他们核心架构的年轻球员。
休斯顿火箭： 与圣安东尼奥一样，休斯顿尚未对扬尼斯表达出兴趣，但他们拥有阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 和阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 等年轻球员可以纳入理论上的筹码包，还有大量的选秀权。然而，他们在去年夏天交易得到杜兰特之前也说过同样的话，考虑到杜兰特将在 9 月份年满 38 岁，如果火箭在季后赛出局，他们可能更倾向于在夏天做出毕其功于一役的举动。
截止日前值得关注的其他球员和球队
迈克尔·“播客”·波特 (Michael Podcast Jr.)： 可能是市场上除扬尼斯外最炙手可热的名字。虽然没人确定迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 是否会被送走，但他的交易价值从未如此之高。如果引发竞标战，篮网队（注：原文此处疑有误，或指涉及交易转手）甚至可以为他换回两个首轮签，这基本上意味着他们从最初的卡梅隆·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson) 交易中榨取了 3 个首轮签。考虑到波特能完美融入任何球队及其本赛季全明星级的产出，他极有可能改变争冠格局——如果他被交易的话。
阿约·多苏穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 和科比·怀特 (Coby White)： 公牛队可能会保留怀特和多苏穆中的一人甚至两人，以继续追求他们连续第 100 个 39 胜 43 负的赛季。但任何稍微正常的球队都应该已经把他们摆上货架了——尤其是考虑到雷恩斯多夫有多抠门。这两名后卫都将在今年夏天成为完全自由球员，且注定会获得大幅涨薪，但如果他们每人都能换回一个首轮签，也并不令人惊讶。怀特是一个能从外线狂轰滥炸的进攻发动机，而多苏穆则提供更多的攻防两端价值，他们都有能力在任何竞争者球队中担任第 4/5 顺位首发或精英级的第六人。
波士顿凯尔特人： 没人能预料到波士顿在缺少杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的情况下仍能保持 50 胜以上的节奏，塔图姆的复出时间仍是个疑问。鉴于他们的成功，管理层是否愿意在截止日前补强，即使这意味着要支付更沉重的奢侈税并可能再次触及第二土豪线？由于凯尔特人目前仅超出税线 1200 万美元，他们甚至可能走向反面，通过交易西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons)（2770 万美元）和豪瑟 (Sam Hauser)（1000 万美元）来换取更便宜但水平相当的球员，从而削减薪资。这完全取决于管理层认为他们今年能走多远，以及塔图姆是否真的能回归。
克利夫兰骑士和……詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) (???)： 骑士队与芝加哥和萨克拉门托的交易不仅仅是为了甩掉挣扎的德安德烈·亨特 (DeAndre Hunter) 以换回两名实用的球员——他们还通过这笔交易节省了大约 4000 万美元的奢侈税。在观察他们可能做的其他交易时，这是至关重要的一点，其中可能包括……詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)？？？周一深夜，查拉尼亚报道称“大胡子”正在寻找新东家，不久之后，克里斯·曼尼克斯 (Chris Mannix) 跟进称快船和骑士已经就加兰 (Garland)/哈登的互换进行了接触。
你说什么？？
是的，哈登比加兰大十岁，但他今年表现得更好，而且下赛季是一份部分保障合同，而加兰的合同一直签到了 27-28 赛季。鉴于克利夫兰已经在亨特的交易中削减了薪资，潜在的加兰/哈登互换进一步证明了他们希望为今年夏天和下赛季腾出薪金空间。这是否与扬尼斯的交易有关？只有时间能给出答案，但毫无疑问，骑士队已突然成为了截止日前最值得关注的球队之一。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: Trade deadline bonanza and Giannis Antetokounmpo rumblings
Around the NBA: Trade deadline bonanza and Giannis Antetokounmpo rumblings
Right after I wrote my previous Giannis piece predicting that this saga will drag out into the summer, Shams reported that the Bucks are now listening to offers on their franchise player. I’m still not convinced that he’ll be moved before the deadline, but this might just be the jinx that’ll result in a trade.
So far, the Warriors, Wolves, Knicks, and Heat have been the teams most aggressively pursuing Giannis. Importantly, every team in the league can offer most assets in the summer given that more picks will be eligible to be dealt, which is why Milwaukee should be in no hurry to deal their star. That includes the Bucks themselves, who only have one tradable first (2026) currently but will have three to offer in the offseason. If Milwaukee attempts a last-second hail mary to entice Giannis to stay, they could deal their two future firsts for a star while adding a lottery talent with their pick this year, which could end up as high as the #2 selection. That might be the unlikeliest scenario given where we stand today, but it’s worth noting given that Milwaukee has never signaled any desire to deal their star and Giannis himself has never turned down a max contract offer either.
Speaking of an extension, the timing of a potential trade would affect when the Greek Freak can sign his next contract too. If he’s dealt before the deadline, his new team could present a max offer in October (which is also when Milwaukee can), but if he’s traded in the summer, they would need to wait another six months before being able to extend him. I doubt this could affect the max contract coming his way, but Giannis would naturally feel a lot more comfortable putting pen to paper as soon as possible, especially considering his recent injury history. He has enough power in the organization to demand a trade before the deadline, although it’s unlikely given how non-commital he’s been throughout this saga — stranger things have happened in the NBA, though (see: one year ago).
Enough preamble, let’s get to the fun part: trades! We’ll go through the teams that have already shown interest and dark horse candidates lurking to make a surprise offer out of nowhere.
Golden State Warriors
Tradable firsts: 4
Intriguing players: Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski
Golden State has the most firsts they can offer out of the quintet of teams who’ve shown the most interest in Giannis and can put together the most enticing package without having to make additional moves. They don’t have a blue-chip young player, but the Warriors will be forced to use one of Jimmy or Draymond to salary match — both of whom could be flipped for even more picks. Crucially, those firsts also extend to the latter part of this decade and into the 2030s, when Steph will likely be retired and Giannis will either be past his prime or on another team entirely. If there’s one team whose picks could become lottery tickets, it would be Golden State’s.
Miami Heat
Tradable firsts: 2
Intriguing players: Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The Heat don’t have as firsts as Golden State but the players they can offer are much more intriguing. Tyler Herro was an All-Star as recently as last season and can be used to salary match, and Kel’el Ware is one of the best prospects who could realistically be included in any package for Giannis. Interestingly, the Hornets have Miami’s 2027 protected first that could convey to a 2028 unprotected pick, and due to the Stepian rule, this prevents the Heat from dealing any of their 2027, 2028, or 2029 firsts. However, if they add a sweetener to Charlotte and convince them to change that pick to just a 2028 unprotected first, that would give Miami a third pick to throw in a Giannis deal. Given the Heat’s infrastructure, those picks won’t be as juicy as Golden State’s, but their young players are much more intriguing.
The X-Factor: Portland Trailblazers
Tradable firsts: Milwaukee’s own unprotected 2029 first, and unprotected swaps in 2028 and 2030
Intriguing players: Jrue Holiday, Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson
Before diving into the Wolves’ and Knicks’ potential offers, we need to discuss the Blazers first, and that’s because Portland owns Milwaukee’s unprotected 2028 and 2030 swaps, and an unprotected first in 2029. I doubt the Blazers would want to trade for Giannis outright, but they could act as a crucial broker between Milwaukee and another team who would send assets to Portland in exchange for them sending Milwaukee their picks back. This would be especially likely if the Wolves and Knicks want to enter the bidding war, and it’s worth noting that Giannis is rumored to want to play with Jrue again.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Tradable firsts: 0 (only one swap in 2028)
Intriguing players: Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo
The Wolves will need to involve a third team in order to make a Giannis trade work due to the lack of draft compensation they can offer. Randle and Gobert are both having All-Star-level seasons, but McDaniels should have the most value out of the three: he’s averaging 14.9 points on 51.2/44.5/84.9 splits, and I could see him breaking out with a bigger role like what Mikal Bridges did in Brooklyn. The likeliest path to Minnesota getting in on Giannis would be trading one or both of Randle/Gobert for a boatload of picks to re-route to Milwaukee, along with McDaniels. Portland would be the most obvious third team to facilitate such a deal since they could give back the Bucks’ own picks, but they’d likely only be interested in McDaniels too. This is why three-team trades are so difficult to execute, and the Wolves will need to make a number of side deals to even get into Milwaukee’s attention.
New York Knicks
Tradable firsts: 1
Intriguing players: Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Deuce McBride
Similar to Minnesota, New York is devoid of draft capital currently, but will have three firsts to offer in the summer. If we focus on the present, though, the only way the Knicks could get Giannis is by trading at least one of KAT/Bridges/OG for picks and offering those to Milwaukee along with McBride, their only intriguing young player. If they choose to involve Portland, the Blazers would likely have interest in one of New York’s wings, but I’m not sure if they’re worth giving up Milwaukee’s picks for. Again, an almost impossible deal to execute, and the Knicks will have a much higher chance of landing Giannis if he either demands to go to NY, or this drags into the summer.
Dark horse teams
Orlando Magic: The Magic have had a turbulent season, with Paolo being a significant reason for that. Would they ever consider putting their so-called franchise cornerstone on the table for Giannis? Such a trade would need to happen in the offseason given that Paolo is poison-pilled currently, but if it happens, the Bucks would be hard-pressed to find a more intriguing young player to acquire.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The exact same can be said for the Cavs if you swap Mobley in for Paolo. A DPOY winner and All-NBA player as recently as last season, Mobley hasn’t taken the offensive jump many envisioned, and the Cavs could be in for some big changes if they flame out in the playoffs again. Another wrinkle in this is Donovan Mitchell’s future, with 2026-27 being the last guaranteed year remaining in his deal. With that in mind, would Cleveland be more hesitant to go all-in, or would they go in the opposite direction and trade everything for potentially their last hurrah next season?
San Antonio Spurs: Let’s make one thing clear: San Antonio has given no indications that they’re interested in Giannis and has always said that they’re building on Wemby’s timeline. I’m listing them here purely because they have the exact package Milwaukee is after: blue chip prospects like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and a boatload of firsts to offer (4+). Given the amount of draft capital they have, there’s a better chance that the Spurs would use their picks as a facilitator for another team to acquire Giannis, with San Antonio getting a young player who fits with their core in return.
Houston Rockets: Like San Antonio, Houston hasn’t expressed any interest in Giannis but has young players like Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun to include in a theoretical package, along with a plethora of picks. However, they said the same before trading for KD last summer, and given that he’ll turn 38 in September, the Rockets might be more inclined to make an all-in move in the summer if they flame out in the playoffs.
Other players and teams to monitor before the deadline
Michael Podcast Jr.: Possibly the hottest name on the market outside of Giannis, no one is sure if MPJ will even get moved, but his trade value will never be higher. The Nets could feasibly fetch two firsts for him if they drum up a bidding war, which essentially means that they’d have fetched 3 firsts from the original Cam Johnson trade. Given MPJ’s seamless fit into any team and his all-star level production this year, he may very well swing the title race — if he’s moved.
Ayo Dosunmu & Coby White: The Bulls will likely keep one, if not both of White and Dosunmu to aid their quest for the 100th consecutive 39-43 season, but any semi-competent franchise would have put them on the market already — especially given how cheap Reinsdorf is. Both guards will become UFAs this summer and are due for big raises, but it wouldn’t be shocking if they fetched first-rounders each. White is an offensive dynamo who can bomb from deep while Dosunmu provides more two-way value, and they’re capable of being a 4th/5th starter or an elite sixth man on any contender.
Boston Celtics: No one predicted that Boston would be on pace for over 50 wins without Jayson Tatum, whose potential return is still in question. Given their success, would management be willing to buy at the deadline, even if it means going deeper into the luxury tax and potentially back into the second apron? With the Celtics only $12 million above the tax line, they could even go the opposite direction and shed salary by trading depth pieces like Simons ($27.7 million) and Hauser ($10 million) for cheaper but comparable players. It all depends on how far the organization believes they can go this year, and whether or not Tatum will actually return.
Cleveland Cavaliers and… James Harden(???): The Cavs’ trade with Chicago and Sacramento wasn’t just to dump a struggling DeAndre Hunter for two useful players — they also saved roughly $40 million in luxury tax simply by making this deal. That’s a crucial thing to keep in mind when looking at other deals they could make, which might include… James Harden??? Late Monday night, Shams reported that the Beard is looking for a new home, and shortly after, Chris Mannix followed up by saying that the Clippers and Cavs have engaged in talks surrounding a Garland/Harden swap.
Excuse me??
Yes, Harden is a decade older than Garland, but he’s also been much better this year and has a partially guaranteed deal next season, whereas Garland is signed through the 27-28 campaign. Given that Cleveland has already shed salary in the Hunter deal, a potential Garland/Harden swap is further proof that they’d like to clear up their books for this summer and next season. Could that be related to a Giannis trade? Only time will tell, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs have suddenly become arguably the most interesting team to monitor at the deadline.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock