By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Bill Huan, Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-01-05 14:33:00
马刺在2025年上半年经历了一段艰难时期，但过去几个月表现出色。本赛季至今，这段征程中最让你喜欢的部分是什么？
Marilyn Dubinski: 虽然我通常是个乐观主义者，但我还是确保自己调整个人的期望，因为球队仍然存在太多的不确定性。尽管我觉得媒体过分渲染了“后卫太多”的论调，但我们仍未见到一个健康的德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在马刺会是什么样子，他们新的中锋深度是否能收到回报，等等。因此，我当时说他们最多能成为西部前四的种子队，但我官方的最高预期是前六。他们证明我错了。尽管持续面临伤病问题，他们已经打造出了一支有深度的球队，足以克服这些困扰，甚至包括维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的伤病。如果当初有人告诉我他、福克斯和卡斯尔会缺席这么多比赛，我绝对猜不到他们在2026年初仍会是西部的二号种子。
Mark Barrington: 尽管文班亚马因小腿酸痛不得不缺阵近一个月，但看到球队如何通过每场比赛不同球员的挺身而出继续赢球，这景象令人惊叹。但要论戏剧性，那必须是战胜雷霆的几场胜利。第一场胜利就不可思议，文班亚马在有限的上场时间内以某种方式推动球队走向胜利。你可以看到，在他上半场的短暂出场后，整个团队都提升了他们的比赛水平，这一趋势在第二和第三场比赛中得以延续，银黑军团每次面对这个克星时都变得更具统治力。
Bill Huan: 毫无疑问是卡斯尔和哈珀的成长。我完全承认，我之前对卡斯尔的看法大错特错，去年我认为他在场时实际上对马刺是一种伤害，并觉得他拿年度最佳新秀更多是史上最差之一的新秀届的产物，而非潜力新星的标志。好吧，他这个赛季彻底证明我错了，看起来是一位板上钉钉的未来全明星，并且至少能成为一支争冠球队的三当家。
另一方面，我对哈珀的评价已经不能再高了，而他的表现甚至超出了我的预期。他的突破和终结能力已属联盟顶级，并且在一支顶尖强队中已经能做出积极贡献，这在新秀后卫中极为罕见。如果非要二选一，我仍然会选哈珀而不是卡斯尔，但好消息是我们可以鱼与熊掌兼得（更不用说我们还有一位7尺5寸的外星人）。
Devon Birdsong: 对我来说，三战全胜NBA卫冕冠军必须是*最*亮眼的表现。雷霆队持续保持着惊人的效率，正朝着60+胜场的目标迈进，所以他们并没有任何真正意义上的实力下滑，而马刺队则在面临健康问题和阵容变动的情况下，以某种方式证明了自己是他们的克星。是的，这支球队仍然存在很多不确定性，但看到他们能稳定地在对阵最强对手时打出最佳表现？不，我之前绝不敢打这个赌。如果他们能取得2胜1负，我都会欣喜若狂。虽然我早已确信这支马刺队只要不出现灾难性的伤病就能赢下50场比赛，但如果他们能继续在面对西部强敌时展现出这样的状态，他们的成就或许会远不止于此。
Jeje Gomez: 抱歉我的观点没什么新意，但于我而言，答案是文班亚马。在深静脉血栓的诊断之后，担心他需要很长时间才能恢复状态并继续进步是合乎情理的。毕竟，他确实错过了2024-25赛季的后半段。幸运的是，他今年的表现完全达到了所有人的最高期望。当他在场上时，马刺队感觉一切皆有可能。每一代球员中，只有少数几个人能激发出这种级别的乐观情绪。文班就是其中之一，而且他毫不耽搁地迅速恢复了状态。
纵观赛程，其中不乏一些艰难的阶段，你认为在全明星周末时，马刺能取得一个怎样的现实战绩和排名？
Dubinski: 他们已经证明了自己能应对残酷的客场之旅，而且奇怪的是，最近这段赛程或许表明他们在客场比在主场更专注。我认为他们会保持相似的胜率，排名不会跌出前三，考虑到湖人队因卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 的防守局限和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的心不在焉而岌岌可危，而掘金队也应因尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas) 的缺阵而有所下滑。火箭队是他们唯一真正的威胁，赛程中还有几场直接对决，将有助于拉开差距或让竞争变得更加激烈。
Barrington: 像往常一样，全明星周末在赛季赛程的一大半之后，也就是第54场比赛后，大约是赛季的2/3处。高阶数据显示马刺的胜场数略高于他们的预期战绩，这一趋势可能会有所回归均值，特别是如果文班亚马因膝盖过度伸展而缺席大量比赛的话。我仍然极为乐观，我认为在2月11日对阵勇士后，他们的胜负记录会是38胜16负左右，我预测马刺会赢下那场比赛。这意味着他们将在全明星周末前很久就超越去年的总胜场数，这对米奇教练和球队来说是一个巨大的成功。这样的战绩应该能让他们稳居西部前四，如果他们在全明星周末后能保持这个势头，就能确保一个季后赛主场优势系列赛。
Huan: 考虑到现在约基奇将缺阵一个月，休斯顿是争夺第二名的唯一威胁，马刺需要经历一段灾难性的连败才会跌出西部前三。由于火箭队落后两场，我仍然会押注马刺守住二号种子的位置，但我预见到这场争夺战可能会持续到最后，因为文班在近期的健康状况并不确定。
Birdsong: 嗯，他们已经证明了自己能够相当稳定地击败联盟中的顶级强队，并且在缺少关键球员的情况下依然高歌猛进，所以到了这个地步，我认为只有文班赛季报销的伤病才能让他们跌出西部前四。然而，随着约基奇缺席大量比赛，西部顶端的竞争变得不那么激烈了。我真的认为第二号种子的位置是现实可及的。根据目前.714的胜率，马刺本赛季有望取得58场胜利，但他们仍在继续磨合中解决一些问题，所以我会说54场胜利感觉比较现实。去年，这个战绩仍然能让他们排在西部第二，领先于火箭队。
Gomez: 马刺在对阵弱队时表现挣扎，但从现实角度看，从现在到二月中旬，他们应该赢多输少。背靠背的比赛可能很难应对，但这支球队已经证明了其深度足以在缺少一些核心球员的情况下取胜。随着掘金队失去约基奇，我能预见他们保住西部第二好的战绩，最坏的情况下，如果事情不顺利，他们也仍会处在前六名之列。
好的方面非常出色，但也存在一些弱点。这支球队的上限在哪里？为了达到这个上限，球队最需要改进的最大领域是什么？
Dubinski: 从技术上讲，他们的上限是联盟头号种子并冲击总决赛，尽管目前来看，他们需要变得更加稳定，并需要一些帮助才能超越雷霆（顺便说一句，雷霆到目前为止的赛程是联盟最轻松的之一，但从现在开始他们的赛程也会变难）。西部第二号种子可能更为现实。最需要改进的领域是稳定性。对一支年轻的球队来说，这个要求很高，但他们的表现有时会从一场比赛到另一场比赛，甚至一节到另一节都判若两队，这很大程度上与三分线两端的表现有关。他们在防守端过度协防，因此给了对手太多空位射手的机会；而在进攻端，他们需要自己的射手表现得更稳定。除了朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 对阵尼克斯时命中11记三分的爆发，他和哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 同时陷入低迷已经对进攻造成了影响。
Barrington: 球队最大的弱点是无法限制对手的三分射手，但这似乎更多地与战术体系有关，而非固有的缺陷。在对阵尼克斯的比赛中，马刺在下半场大部分时间里采用了联防，这似乎打乱了尼克斯的进攻，并为球队的逆转提供了动力。他们需要继续在防守端根据对位采用灵活的策略来击败顶级球队，因为在面对拥有精英射手的对手时，你不能总是只用一套通用的防守，即便有文班亚马在篮下弥补防守错误的能力。看起来球队正在持续进步，到赛季末，他们的防守可能会比现在更好，为季后赛做好更充分的准备。
在阔别季后赛六个赛季后重返强队行列，如果能赢得一个季后赛系列赛，对球队来说将是极好的。但阵容中仅有的几位曾在赢得季后赛系列赛的球队中扮演重要角色的球员是哈里森·巴恩斯、卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)、凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 和俾斯麦·比永博 (Bismack Biyombo)*。我的期望是马刺无法突破首轮，但如果他们做到了，他们就有可能走得更远，因为这是一支学习能力很强的球队。
* 我没有计算林迪·沃特斯 (Lindy Waters) 或乔丹·麦克劳克林 (Jordan McLaughlin)，他们在季后赛中几乎没有为各自球队出场；也没有计算德阿隆·福克斯，他为国王队打得很好，但从未突破过首轮。
Huan: 这番话可能会让我被踢出PtR（Pounding the Rock网站），但我仍然不认为马刺是真正的冠军争夺者。公平地说，我只把雷霆和掘金放在那个级别，而圣安东尼奥很可能是联盟第三好的球队。一个现实的上限可能是西部决赛，并在其中一个系列赛中战胜那两个巨头之一，但我不认为他们能一路杀进总决赛，因为通往总决赛的道路很可能要同时经过俄克拉荷马城和丹佛。但下个赛季呢？我们或许能赢得一切。
Birdsong: 他们仍然没有足够优质的远距离射手来应对任何状态起伏，他们最近一次终结连败还是靠着队内一位神射手打出历史级的爆发。这才是真正的问题所在。他们就是缺少一个既能在大前锋位置上提供额外的护筐和篮板保护，又能命中三分的大个子球员。公平地说，这是当今NBA中最稀有（也是最昂贵）的特质组合，但我认为马刺在填补这一空缺之前无法夺冠（除非出现现象级的、持续火热的手感），而且我不认为他们能通过交易得到这样的球员。他们最好的赌注或许是希望老鹰队继续沉沦，然后他们能再获得一次选秀好运。极具讽刺意味的是，这支球队现在非常适合一位科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 类型的球员（尤其是2014年那个版本的他），而这几乎和这支球队的弱点恰好出现在大前锋位置上一样讽刺——毕竟在长达19年的辉煌岁月中，这个位置一直是球队的基石和卓越的典范。
Gomez: 马刺的上限是争夺总冠军，但前提是他们能完成一笔解决其弱点的出色交易。以目前的阵容来看，除非运气爆棚，否则他们的投射能力不足以赢得三轮西部季后赛系列赛，而且防守也存在漏洞。但如果出现一个划算的交易机会，伤病运气站在他们这边，并且雷霆继续在对阵他们时挣扎，他们就有可能从西部脱颖而出。在那之后，一切皆有可能。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：After a rocky 2025, 2026 could be a great year for the Spurs
After a rocky 2025, 2026 could be a great year for the Spurs
The Spurs had some tough times in the first half of 2025, but the last few months have been great. What has been your favorite part of the ride so far this season?
Marilyn Dubinski: Although I am usually an optimist, I made sure to temper my expectations coming in just because there were still so many question marks. While I felt the media were overblowing the “too many guards” narrative, we still hadn’t seen what a healthy De’Aaron Fox would look like for the Spurs, if their new center depth would pay off, etc. Because of that, I was saying they could be a top 4 seed at best but kept my official highest expectations as top 6. They’ve proven me wrong. Despite ongoing injury issues, they’ve built a team with depth that can outlast those issues, even to Victor Webmaynama. If you had told me he, Fox and Castle would have missed so many games, I would not have guessed they’d still be the 2nd seed in the West to start 2026.
Mark Barrington: While Wembanyama had to sit out nearly a month with calf soreness, it was amazing to watch how the team was able to keep winning with different players stepping up from game to game. But for drama, it has to be the wins over the Thunder. The first win was amazing, as Wembanyama somehow propelled the team to a win despite limited minutes. You could see the entire team raising their games after his first half stint, and the trend continued in the second and third games as the Silver and Black became more dominant each time they faced their nemesis.
Bill Huan: Definitely the development of Castle and Harper. I fully admit that I was dead wrong about Castle, who I thought actually hurt the Spurs when he was on the court last year, and thought that the ROY was more the product of one of the worst rookie classes ever, rather than a sign of potential stardom. Well, he’s completely proven me wrong this season and looks like a surefire All-Star in the making, and someone who could be the third-best player on a contender at the very least.
On the other hand, I couldn’t have been higher on Harper, and he’s been even better than I expected. The driving and finishing are already among the best in the league, and he’s already a positive contributor on an elite team, which is extremely rare among rookie guards. I would still pick Harper over Castle if forced, but the good news is that we can have our cake and eat it too (not to mention also having a 7’5” alien as well).
Devon Birdsong: For me, going 3-0 against the NBA Champs has to be *the* highlight. The Thunder have continued to be brutally efficient and are on a 60+ win pace, so it’s not as if they fallen off in any real way, and the Spurs have somehow proven to be their foil in spite of health and related lineup fluxations. Yes, there’s still so much fluctuation with this team, but to see them consistently play their best against the best? No, I wouldn’t have bet on that yet. I would have been thrilled if they gone 2-1. And while I already felt certain that this Spurs team would win 50 games barring catastrophic injury, they might do that and more if they can keep showing up like that against Western contenders.
Jeje Gomez: Sorry for being unoriginal, but it’s Wembanyama for me. After the DVT diagnosis, fears that he would take a long time to return to form and continue to progress were reasonable. He did miss the second half of the 20224/25 season, after all. Fortunately, he’s been as good as anyone could have hoped for this year. When he’s on the court, anything feels possible for the Spurs. There are only a handful of players every generation who can elicit that level of optimism. Wemby is one of them, and he has wasted no time returning to form.
Looking at the schedule, which features some tough stretches, what do you think a realistic record and place in the standings are for the Spurs at the All-Star break?
Dubinski: They have already shown they can handle a brutal travel schedule, and oddly this recent stretch may have shown they’re more focused on the road than at home. I think they’ll remain in a similar win/loss percentage, and they shouldn’t fall any lower than 3rd, considering the Lakers are barely hanging on with Luka Doncic’s defensive limits and LeBron James seemingly checked out, and the Nuggets should fall off a bit with Nikola Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas out. The Rockets are their only real threat, and there are a couple of matchups in there to help create separation or make things tighter.
Barrington: As usual, the All-Star break is more than halfway, after game 54, which is about 2/3rds of the way through the season. Advanced stats show the Spurs’ wins total slightly outperforming their expected record, and that trend might revert to the mean a bit, especially if Wembanyama misses significant time with his hyperextended knee. I’m still wildly optimistic, and I think that the win/loss record will be something like 38-16 after they face the Warriors on February 11, a game that I predict the Spurs will win. That means that they’ll surpass last year’s win total well before the break, which is a great outcome for Coach Mitch and the team. That record should keep them in the top four in the Western Conference, which would guarantee them a home playoff series if they can keep it up for the rest of the season after the break.
Huan: It would take a catastrophic stretch for the Spurs to fall out of the top 3 in the West, considering Houston is the only threat for the #2 spot, now that Jokic will be out for a month. With the Rockets two games behind, I would still bet on the Spurs to hold on to the 2-seed, but I can see the battle coming down to the wire, given Wemby’s uncertain health in the near future.
Birdsong: Well, they’ve already proven they can beat the best teams in the league with some degree of consistency, and they’ve rolled along despite missing key contributors, so at this point I think only a season-ending injury for Wemby could keep them out of the top 4 in the West. However, with Jokic missing significant time, the top of the West just got a little less competitive. I honestly think the #2 seed is realistically within reach. Based on the current winning percentage (.714) the Spurs are on pace for 58 wins this season, but they’re still working out some things as they continue to gel, so I’m going to say 54 wins feels realistic. Last year, that still would have landed them 2nd in the West over the Rockets.
Gomez: The Spurs have struggled against bad teams, but realistically, they should win more than they lose from here to mid-February. The back-to-backs could be tricky to navigate, but the team has proved to be deep enough to win without some of its better players. I could see them holding on to the second-best record in the West with the Nuggets missing Jokic and, at worst, finding themselves still in the top six if things go awry.
The good has been great, but there have been some weaknesses. What is this team’s ceiling, and what is the biggest area that needs improvement for the team to reach it?
Dubinski: Technically their ceiling is the top seed and a shot at the finals, although at this point, they’ll need to be more consistent and get some help to surpass the Thunder (on a side note, OKC has had one of the easiest schedules so far, but it gets harder for them from here as well). The 2nd seed is probably more realistic. The biggest area that needs improvement is consistency. That’s a lot to ask from a young team, but they can be a bit Jekyll and Hyde from game to game and even quarter to quarter, and a lot of that has to do with the three on both ends of the floor. They overhelp and therefore leave shooters open too much on D, and on the other end, they need their own shooters to be more consistent. Beyond Julian Champagnie’s 11-three outburst against the Knicks, having both him and Harrison Barnes in a slump at the same time has been taking a toll on the offense.
Barrington: The team’s biggest weakness has been the inability to limit other team’s three point shooters, but that seems to be more related to the scheme than an inherent weakness. Against the Knicks, the Spurs rolled out a zone defense for much of the second half, which seemed to disrupt the Knicks’ offense and help fuel the comeback. They will need to continue to use a flexible approach based on matchups on defense to beat the top teams, because against opponents with elite shooting, you can’t just play a generic defense all of the time, even with Wembanyama’s ability to erase mistakes at the rim. It looks like the team is continuing to improve, and by the end of the season, they might be an even better defensive team than they are now, and better prepared for the playoffs.
It would be great for the team to win a playoff series in their return to relevance after missing the playoffs for the last six seasons, but the only players on the roster who have been significant contributors on a team that won a playoff series are Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk, and Bismack Biyombo.* My expectation is that the Spurs aren’t going to make it out of the first round, but if they do, they’ll be a threat to go even further, because this team is made up of fast learners.
* I’m not counting Lindy Waters or Jordan McLaughlin, who barely played for their teams in the playoffs, and De’Aaron Fox, who played really well for the Kings, but never made it out of the first round.
Huan: This might get me kicked off PtR, but I still don’t see the Spurs as legitimate title threats. To be fair, I only have the Thunder and Nuggets in that tier, and San Antonio may very well be the third-best team in the league. A realistic ceiling is probably the West Finals with a series win over one of those two juggernauts, but I don’t see them making it all the way to the finals since the road will likely go through both OKC and Denver. Next season, though? We could win the whole thing.
Birdsong: They still don’t have enough quality long-distance shooting to weather any streakiness, and they only managed to snap their most recent losing streak at the behest of an all-time breakout from one of their sharpshooters. This is the real problem. They just don’t have a player who’s big enough to serve as extra rim deterrence and rebounding at the 4, who can also knock it down from three. To be fair, it’s about the rarest (and most expensive) combination of traits in the NBA right now, but I just don’t see the Spurs taking home the title without filling that void (barring a face-melting prolonged hot streak), and I don’t think they’re going to be able to trade for it. Their best bet is probably hoping that the Hawks’ free-fall continues, and they get one more serving of draft luck. In a twist of great irony, this team would be perfect for a Kawhi Leonard-type player right now (especially the version from 2014), which is almost as ironic as this team’s weakness being at Power-Forward after a very prominent 19-year stretch of fundamental excellence at the position.
Gomez: The Spurs’ ceiling is championship contention, but only if they make a great trade that solves their weaknesses. As currently constructed, their shooting is not good enough to win three Western Conferece playoffs series, unless they get lucky, and the defense has holes. But if a bargain appears, injury luck goes their way, and the Thunder continue to struggle against them, they could come out of the West. After that, anything is possible.
By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Bill Huan, Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock