By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-10-04 21:54:13
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
许多潜在的争冠球队或季后赛球队都正受伤病困扰。你认为哪些球队会在赛季初期遭受最沉重的打击？
玛丽琳·杜宾斯基 (Marilin Dubinski): 我首先想到的是波士顿和印第安纳，因为与提到的其他球队不同，他们失去了队内最好的球员，并且他们可能跌得最惨——毕竟他们是过去两年总决赛的赢家或参与者。现在，两队都缺少了核心球员，同时在自由球员市场上也遭受了一些重大损失，看起来他们将从争冠行列跌落至季后赛排名靠后的球队（东部依然那么弱）。我们已经见过像费城和孟菲斯这样的季后赛球队在伤病中挣扎，所以这并不新鲜。休斯顿则是未知数。弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 不是超级巨星，但他无疑是球队最好的场上指挥官，而无论一支球队整体天赋多高、球星多耀眼，缺少了这样的角色都会步履维艰。
马克·巴林顿 (Mark Barrington): 没有杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的凯尔特人实力会大打折扣，但他们依然很强。我认为他们对霍福德的思念会超出预期，因为他不仅是一名扎实的球员，更是更衣室里的精神支柱和领袖。
我觉得最大的未知数是76人队。我得亲眼见到乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 打满整个赛季才会相信。我毫不怀疑这家伙的坚韧和努力，但我就是不确定他的身体能否撑得住一整个赛季。而今年开赛时，他的健康状况已经算是历年来最好的了。保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 是另一位理论上很强，但职业生涯现阶段身体状况却不甚理想的球员。
火箭队不会有大问题。他们天赋异禀，即便没有范弗利特，也能在常规赛中表现出色。我不知道在季后赛中，缺少了他的领导力和精神韧性，他们能否挺得住，但即便有弗雷德在，他们本来也无法在季后赛系列赛中击败雷霆。让年轻球员获得更多的上场时间从长远来看对球队有利。他们在未来一段时间内都会是强队。
有埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Eric Spoelstra) 在，热火队就永远不会掉队。希罗会缺席赛季头几个月，但到了春天，热火会重返季后赛行列，而泰勒应该会成为他们季后赛晋级的关键一环。他们可能进不了前四，但他们并不需要高排名才能在东部突围。
德文·伯德桑 (Devon Birdsong): 步行者和凯尔特人拥有足够均衡的阵容配置、足够精明的教练以及稳定的管理层，所以我认为尽管缺少了当家球星，他们的表现仍会出人意料地好。休斯顿的阵容足够深厚，应该能够安然度过伤病期，即便开局阶段可能有些挣扎（毕竟引进杜兰特本就需要一些战术调整）。我会把票投给76人队，因为他们似乎几乎一直处于动荡、不确定和伤病担忧之中。如果在这一切之外再出一些小差错，我认为他们可能会沦为联盟战绩垫底的五支球队之一。即使是孟菲斯也不太可能跌到那个地步，尽管他们连续几个赛季的光环似乎首次开始褪去。也别低估密尔沃基走下坡路的可能性，他们的阵容深度看起来极其薄弱。只要扬尼斯缺阵一两个月，就足以毁掉他们的整个赛季，因为他们的容错空间可以说微乎其微。
赫苏斯·戈麦斯 (Jesus Gomez): 我完全能预见到灰熊队会陷入挣扎。他们大部分内线球员都受伤了，还失去了杰伊·赫夫 (Jay Huff) 这样一位可靠的替补。小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 是个明星，但他不是一个好的篮板手，并且可能会感受到全职打中锋带来的身体消耗。桑蒂·阿尔达马 (Santi Aldama) 斗志旺盛，但他没有足够的力量去防守传统大个子。也许他们会通过无限换防来维持防守，同时莫兰特在进攻端迎来复苏，但我认为孟菲斯在赛季初期会过得很艰难。鹈鹕也是一支可能因伤病而陨落的球队，没人会对此感到惊讶。在东部，76人队是个巨大的问号，而热火队似乎离灾难只有一次重大伤病的距离，但东部整体太弱了，这两支球队都可能打进季后赛。
西部总会有球队令人失望。你认为马刺成为那支表现不及休赛期预期的球队的可能性有多大？需要发生什么才会导致这种情况？
杜宾斯基: 如果连附加赛的最低目标都达不到，那这个赛季无疑将是巨大的失望。而且我认为，尽管西部竞争激烈，但外界的普遍预期是他们能打进季后赛，哪怕是通过附加赛以一个较低的种子身份进入。正如他们上赛季前半段所展示的，当球队健康且磨合到位时，他们每晚都很有竞争力，在赛程变得艰难且伤病来袭之前，打出了18胜16负的战绩。我相信，只有核心球员（比如文班）的伤病才能让他们脱离正轨，因为他们在其他所有位置上都有足够的深度。
巴林顿 : 一切都取决于健康。我们还没见过文班亚马在联盟里打满一个完整的赛季，所以，无论公平与否，他的耐用性都受到质疑。我对他在休赛期所做的准备，以及他和球队对他身体的照料方式感觉非常好。如果文班亚马能出战60场或更多比赛，马刺就能打进季后-赛——我说的不是附加赛。我敢打赌。
伯德桑: 除非过去五六年一直困扰马刺的伤病魔咒卷土重来，否则我认为这种情况不太可能发生。话又说回来，在圣安东尼奥之外，人们的期望并没有阿拉莫城那么高。大多数外部媒体成员似乎预计马刺的最终排名会在附加赛区和第六名之间，这个目标看起来即使有零星伤病也很有可能实现。我认为，需要一次足以赛季报销的重伤，和/或改组后的教练团队的崩盘，才会让他们达不到这个预期。
戈麦斯: 化学反应问题确实可能彻底毁掉马刺的赛季，但那必须是非常严重的问题。米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 或许还需要证明自己是个战术天才，但上赛季他在维持更衣室和谐方面做得很好。今年的挑战来自于如何管理后卫线，以及可能需要削减一两位文班前时代老将的角色，但他应该能够处理好。除此之外，伤病似乎是目前唯一的主要担忧。
最佳前景：你认为他们本赛季能走多远？附加赛？季后赛？还是至少赢下一轮系列赛？
杜宾斯基: 如果一切顺利且对位有利，我相信这支球队能够打进季后赛第二轮。虽然他们总有可能突破这个上限，但一支核心球员几乎没有季后赛经验的球队很少能走得更远。（请记住，即便是今年夺冠的“年轻且缺乏经验”的雷霆队，在2024年作为头号种子时也在第二轮被爆冷淘汰，而那是他们必须甩掉的标签。）似乎在各个方面，马刺都会继续遵循雷霆队的发展轨迹，在本赛季积累一些季后赛“经验”，然后在2027年迎来彻底爆发。
巴林顿: 上赛季末，我的观点是马刺是一支重建中的球队，还有很长的路要走，本赛季的上限是附加赛。但在看到了休赛期的所有引援后——我指的是球员和教练团队——我备受鼓舞，决定提高我的期望。这支球队拥有近乎无限的潜力。西部有很多强队，但我有足够信心说马刺是其中之一。我能预见到他们打进第二轮，甚至可能闯入分区决赛。要走到那一步需要大量的运气和成长，但我开始相信了。而且，尽管我对2025-2026赛季的期望很高，但我认为这仅仅是个开始。这支球队有机会在未来十年成为一支历史级别的伟大球队。
伯德桑: 在文班赛季报销之前，马刺上赛季的胜场数有望达到45场以上，而那还是在波波的健康状况和福克斯的手部骨折的情况下。如果教练团队的表现如我们所希望的那样出色，并且伤病都是小问题，我看不出有任何理由这支球队不能赢下50场以上的比赛，并惊险地避开附加赛。孟菲斯、达拉斯和萨克拉门托都可能因为伤病、教练和阵容磨合等问题而表现得非常平庸。勇士队也看起来相当脆弱，并且没有做出重大补强。而且谁知道快船会发生什么，他们的命运似乎在很多方面都与科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 息息相关。如果西部陷入混战，马刺自身一切顺利，且至少有一支西部竞争者遭遇重大伤病，我能看到他们一路杀进西部决赛。不过，考虑到这支球队季后赛经验实在太少，在季后赛第二轮出局似乎是更可能的结果。
戈麦斯: 存在这样一个平行宇宙：马刺队找到了他们的轮换阵容，完成一笔重磅交易，成为一支具备分区决赛潜力的第二轮球队。我们生活在那个宇宙的可能性不大，所以我预测他们会拿到西部前六的战绩，并有希望晋级第二轮，这对球队来说将是迈出的坚实一步。
点击查看原文：The best and worst case scenarios for the 2025/26 Spurs
The best and worst case scenarios for the 2025/26 Spurs
A lot of potential contenders or playoff teams are dealing with injuries. Which franchises do you think will suffer the most early in the season?
Marilin Dubinski: Boston and Indiana immediately come to mind because unlike other teams mentioned, they lost their best player AND have the farthest to fall, having won or been to the last two finals. Now, with each missing their best players while suffering some significant losses in free agency, it’s looking like they’ll fall from contenders to lower-seeded playoff teams (the East is still that bad). We’ve already seen playoff teams like Philly and Memphis struggle with injuries, so that isn’t new. Houston is the wildcard. Fred VanVleet isn’t a superstar, but he’s by far their best floor general, and no matter how good or star-studded a team is overall, it can be a struggle without one.
Mark Barrington: The Celtics aren’t the same team without Jayson Tatum, but they’re still good. I think they’ll miss Horford more than they expect to, because he’s not just a solid player, he’s an emotional anchor and leader in the locker room.
I think the biggest question mark is the Sixers. I’ll believe that Joel Embiid can play a whole season when I see it. I have no doubts about how tough the guy is and how hard he works, but I just don’t know if his body can hold up for an entire season. And he’s about as healthy as he ever is to start the season this year. Paul George is another player who’s great in theory, but whose body isn’t holding up well at this point in his career.
The Rockets are going to be fine. They have so much talent that they’re going to be able to do really well in the regular season without VanVleet. I don’t know if they’ll hold up in the playoffs without his leadership and mental toughness, but they weren’t going to be able to beat the Thunder in a playoff series anyway, even with Fred. More playing time for the young guys will benefit their team in the long run. They are going to be good for a while.
With Eric Spoelstra, the Heat are never out of the hunt. Herro will miss the first couple of months of the season, but the Heat will be in the playoff picture come spring, and Tyler should be a key part of them advancing in the playoffs. They probably won’t be in the top four, but they don’t need to be to make a run at winning the Eastern Conference.
Devon Birdsong: The Pacers and Celtics have balanced enough team makeup and savvy enough coaches + organization stability that I think they’ll be surprisingly good in spite of their missing stars. Houston is stacked enough that they should be able to weather their injury, even if they struggle a bit out of the gate (adding Durant was already going to force some adjustments anyway). I’d cast my vote for the 76ers, as they seem to be in a state of near-constant turmoil/uncertainty and injury concerns. If enough little things go wrong in addition to everything else, I think they could be looking at a bottom-5 record. Even Memphis feels unlikely to fall that far, though the shine seems to be off the apple there for the first time in a couple of seasons. Don’t sleep on things trending the wrong direction for Milwaukee as well, as their roster looks incredibly thin. All it would take is a month or two without Giannis to sink their season, as their margin for error feels narrow at best.
Jesus Gomez: I can definitely see the Grizzlies struggling. Most of their bigs are injured and they lost a solid depth piece in Jay Huff. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a star, but he’s not a good rebounder and might feel the physical toll of playing center full-time. Santi Aldama is feisty, but he doesn’t have the strength to guard traditional big men. Maybe they switch everything to survive on defense and Morant has a resurgence on offense, but I could see Memphis having a tough time early on. The Pelicans are also a franchise that could fall off due to injury and no one would be surprised. In the East, the 76ers are a gigantic question mark and the Heat seem one major injury away from disaster, but the conference is so weak that both teams could make the postseason.
Someone in the West is bound to disappoint. How likely do you think the Spurs will be the ones to underperform offseason expectations? What would have to happen?
Dubinski: Not making the play-in at a bare minimum would certainly make this season a massive disappointment, and I think, despite how deep the West is, the general expectation is they make the playoffs, even if it’s as a lower seed through the play-in. As they showed through the first part of last season, when healthy and clicking, they were competitive every night, posting an 18-16 record before the schedule got tougher and injuries took over. I believe injuries to key players (like Wemby) would be the only thing that could derail them because they are so deep at every other position.
Barrington: It’s all about health. We still haven’t seen Wembanyama play a full season in the league, so, fairly or not, his durability is in question. I feel really good about the kind of preparation he’s done in the offseason, and how he and the team are taking care of his body. If Wembanyama plays 60 or more games, the Spurs are going to the playoffs, and I don’t mean the play-in tournament. Book it.
Birdsong: Unless the injury bug that’s bedeviled the Spurs over the last half-decade or so rears its head again, I wouldn’t predict it as being very likely. Then again, outside of San Antonio, expectations are not as high as they are around the Alamo City. Most outside media members seem to expect the Spurs to fall somewhere between the play-in and 6th seed, and that seems pretty achievable even with some injuries sprinkled in here and there. I think it would take a significant season-ending injury and/or the collapse of the revamped coaching staff to fall short of that.
**Gomez:**Chemistry issues could really torpedo the Spurs’ season, but they would have to be major ones. Mitch Johnson might still need to prove he’s a tactical genius, but he did a good job of keeping the locker room copacetic last season. The challenge this year comes from managing the guards and potentially having to reduce the role of one or two pre-Wemby veterans, but he should be able to do it. Other than that, injuries seem to be the only major concerns right now.
Best-case scenario: How far do you think they can go this season? Play-in? Playoffs? Winning at least one series?
Dubinski: If everything falls into place and the matchups are favorable, I believe this team can make the second round of the playoffs. While they could always break that ceiling, it’s rare that a team with very little playoff experience among its key players advances further. (Remember, even the “young and inexperienced” Thunder, who won the championship this year, were upset in the second round in 2024 despite being the top seed, and that was a label they had to shake.) As seems to be the case in every faucet lately, I believe the Spurs will continue to follow the Thunder’s trajectory and get some playoff “experience” this season before breaking out in 2027.
Barrington: At the end of last season, my opinion was that the Spurs were a rebuilding team with a long way to go, and were looking at a ceiling of play-in this season. After seeing all of the off-season additions, and I’m counting players and coaching staff, I’m encouraged enough to raise my expectations. This team has almost infinite potential. There are tons of good teams in the west, but I feel confident enough to say that the Spurs are one of them. I can see them going to the second round and possibly even making it to the conference finals. They’d need a ton of luck and development to make it that far, but I’m starting to believe. And as high as my expectations are for 2025-2026, I think that it’s just the beginning. This team has the chance to become a historically great squad over the next decade.
Birdsong: Prior to Wemby’s season ending, the Spurs were on pace to win 45+ games last season, and that was in spite of Pop’s medical situation and Fox’s busted hand. If the coaching is as good as we all hope, and injuries are minor, I don’t see any reason why this team can’t win 50+ games and narrowly avoid the play-in games. Memphis, Dallas, and Sacramento could all end up very middling due to a mixture of injury, coaching, and roster fit. The Warriors were also looking pretty vulnerable and haven’t made significant improvements. And who even knows what’s going to happen with the Clippers, whose fate seems tied to Kawhi Leonard in a number of ways. If chaos reigns, everything goes right for the Spurs, and a major injury hits at least one Western contender, I could see them making it as far as the Western Conference Finals. A loss in the 2nd round of playoffs seems more likely, though, as this team has precious little postseason experience.
Gomez: There is a universe in which the Spurs figure out their rotation, make one big trade, and become a second-round team with Conference Finals potential. It’s unlikely we live in that universe, so I’ll go with a top six record and a puncher’s chance to advance to the second round, which would mean a significant step forward for the franchise.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock