By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-10-21 08:15:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
你从季前赛中看到了哪些积极因素，并认为这些因素能延续到真刀真枪的常规赛中？
玛丽莲·杜宾斯基 (Marilyn Dubinski): 积极因素当然很多，但正如我们在季前赛打得不好时要提醒自己别太当真一样，当一切顺风顺水时，我们同样要保持冷静。尽管如此，一些积极的方面是能够延续下去的，比如阵容深度的提升。每一位上场的球员都做出了贡献，即便是那些可能身处第三阵容的球员，看起来也能在需要时挺身而出。另一件教不来的东西是化学反应，而这支球队无论谁在场上，都展现出了极佳的化学反应。当然，还有更多篮球层面的东西值得一提，但这两点绝对会延续到常规赛。
马克·巴灵顿 (Mark Barrington): 我认为上赛季的球队整体天赋储备不足，缺少一两位角色球员就会对球队产生很大影响。如果文班亚马缺席大量时间，这支球队仍然会陷入困境，但他身后有足够的深度支持。尽管季前赛缺少了几名首发，但马刺的天赋仍然强于所有对手，而当首发球员下场休息后，他们的统治力甚至更强。米奇（译者注：指主教练）本赛季将会有很多选择，我们或许会看到许多不同的阵容搭配，至少在赛季初期是这样。
雅各布·道格拉斯 (Jacob Douglas): 球队阵容的天赋深度比文班亚马时代的任何一个赛季都更为明显——而且这还是在德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 缺阵的情况下。迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 看起来已经准备好立即做出巨大贡献，卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 是马刺多年来最好的替补大个子，而且侧翼球员似乎也有一些内部成长，尤其是朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)。最重要的是，文班亚马看起来又实现了一次飞跃，今年应该会进入MVP的讨论范围。圣安东尼奥近年来一直存在天赋短板——但本赛季已非如此。
赫苏斯·戈麦斯 (Jesus Gomez): 稍后我会更深入地探讨这一点，因为季前赛有很多亮点。有些被人们忽视的是，凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 和朱利安·尚帕尼的侧翼表现相当稳健。他们的投篮命中率虽然无法持续，但他们在场上打得游刃有余，已经准备好为这支看起来比预期中更具深度的球队贡献稳定的上场时间。
J.R. 威尔科 (J.R. Wilco): 我看到了三个积极方面。第一：哈珀的决策能力、第一步启动以及不急不躁的球风都堪称天赋异禀。
第二：球队在赛季初就伤兵满营固然不幸，但他们今年的阵容深度如此之好，以至于我们不至于在全员健康之前就只能坐等失利。这一点至关重要！
第三：文班利用他身体天赋和阅读比赛的能力，很可能会成为本赛季提升球队的变革性力量。当你把他的侵略性也融入其中时，这会形成一种强有力的组合，我认为这将带领球队闯入季后赛。
你认为德阿龙·福克斯和杰里米·索汉的伤病会在赛季初的几场比赛中给马刺带来多大的负面影响？
杜宾斯基: 同样，不要过分解读季前赛，但如果他们所展现的阵容深度能说明问题，那么情况可能不像最初想象的那么糟糕。马刺从长远来看需要他们吗？当然需要，但斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 已经做好了充分准备来填补空缺并延续他的上升势头，而迪伦·哈珀看起来比预期中更适应NBA。（谁说好事不能成双呢？）长远来看，马刺同样需要索汉的拼劲和防守，但在此期间，哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和朱利安·尚帕尼可以用其他方式填补空缺，尤其是在进攻端。
巴灵顿: 索汉的缺阵在对阵独行侠时可能会成为一个问题，因为他的臂展和防守能力在面对像达拉斯这样身材高大的球队时会很有帮助。不过，文班和科内特的双塔阵容可以在一定程度上缓解这个问题。福克斯需要一段时间才能恢复到全速状态，但看起来卡斯尔在他的第二年正在实现飞跃，我不太担心他担任主控后卫。哈珀在季前赛中表现出色，但他在新秀赛季可能会经历一些成长的阵痛，给他大量的上场时间来解决这些问题并无坏处。我认为这对银黑军团来说，与其说是问题，不如说是机遇。
道格拉斯: 这会在防守端对他们造成伤害。福克斯和索汉是球队最好的两名外线防守者。圣安东尼奥将在前四场比赛中面对独行侠、鹈鹕和猛龙，而且很可能没有福克斯和索汉。从纸面上看，马刺应该能赢下这些比赛，但这些对手即便没有其他优点，也至少身材高大且运动能力出色。拥有福克斯这样一位难缠的外线防守者，以及索汉这样一位强壮且全面的防守悍将，本应是应对这些对决的有力武器。
戈麦斯: 福克斯是一位明星球员，那种能轻松砍下20分的家伙。索汉是球队的最佳防守者。他们双双缺阵，情况显然不妙。话虽如此，球队在控球后卫位置上的深度以及卢克·科内特的到来，可以帮助掩盖他们缺阵的影响。虽然在某些时刻球队会想念他们，但马刺应该能够在缺少他们的情况下撑过几场比赛。
威尔科: 由于球队在夏天经历了如此多的变动，在球队以最强阵容打上几周比赛之前，我们能准确地讨论这个问题吗？我猜这或许就是负面影响所在：球迷们不得不等待更长的时间，才能看到这支球队在全员出战时究竟能达到什么样的高度。
预测时间：你认为马刺会赢下多少场比赛，他们将在西部排名第几？
杜宾斯基: 西部的形势日益难以预测，而完美的季前赛表现让人很难不提升对马刺的预期（我开始看到一些预测也正在这样做）。我会说50+胜场/西部前四是他们的上限，而且我得承认，比起几周前，我现在更相信这有可能发生，特别是如果他们本赛季的伤病运气比其他球队更好的话。一个更现实的预测是，他们会取得45场左右的胜利，排在5-8号种子区间。
巴灵顿: 我们还是冷静点。我认为大约45场胜利是一个不错的目标。如果他们能保持相对健康，他们就能进入季后赛，但这支球队在成为争冠球队之前还有很多成长的路要走。这是一个过渡赛季，他们需要学习如何在这个级别上竞争。一两个赛季后，他们就将达到那个水平。
道格拉斯: 根据博彩公司的预测，圣安东尼奥的预测胜场数是44.5场。我倾向于他们能多赢2到3场，最终达到47-48胜左右。这可能会让他们排在西部第6或第7号种子。我赌文班会成为入选NBA最佳阵容一阵的球员，并相信球队整体天赋的提升。如果球队能在赛季大部分时间里保持健康，我看不出他们有什么理由达不到这个胜场数。
戈麦斯: 我认为，在伤病运气尚可的情况下，47胜左右似乎是合理的。这足以避免附加赛吗？上赛季，第7号种子赢了48场，第6号种子赢了49场。我能预见马刺最终会排在第6或第7位，但如果他们保持健康，即便需要多打一场比赛才能晋级，他们也应该能进入季后赛。
威尔科: 上赛季，我给出了 迄今为止 最乐观的胜场预测，而且我想郑重声明，在文班的深静脉血栓(DVT)开始困扰他之前，他们正有望达成这一目标！本赛季，我不知道我能否超越玛丽莲超过50胜并获得首轮主场优势的评估。但如果一切顺利，我会将50胜作为他们的上限。
点击查看原文：The Spurs’ strong preseason shows they are ready to make a leap in 2025/26
The Spurs’ strong preseason shows they are ready to make a leap in 2025/26
What positives did you see from preseason that you believe will translate to the games that count?
Marilyn Dubinski: There were certainly plenty, and just like we have to remind ourselves not to take the preseason too seriously when it doesn’t go well, we still have to do the same when it’s the opposite. Still, some of the positives are things that will carry over, such as the improved depth. Everyone who played contributed, and even players who are likely third stringers coming in looked like they could fill in when called upon. Another thing that you can’t teach is chemistry, and this team has it in spades no matter who is on the court. There are plenty more actual basketball aspects to take away, but those two things will definitely carry over into the regular season.
Mark Barrington: I think last season’s team was pretty thin on talent overall, and missing one of two role players would have a big effect on the team. This team is still going to be in trouble if Wembanyama misses significant time, but there is plenty of depth behind him. Despite missing several starters for the preseason, the Spurs were more talented than all of their opponents, and once the starters rested, they were even more dominant. Mitch is going to have lots of options this season, and we might see lots of different lineups, at least early in the season.
Jacob Douglas: The depth of talent on the roster is much more evident than any season in the Wembanyama era – and that’s without seeing De’Aaron Fox and Jeremy Sochan. Dylan Harper looks like he’s ready to contribute in a big way now, Luke Kornet is the best back up big the Spurs have had in years, and there seems to be potentially some internal improvement on the wings, especially from Julian Champagnie. On top of that, Wembanyama looks like he’s made another leap, and should be in the MVP conversation this year. San Antonio has had a talent deficiency in recent years – that is not the case this season.
Jesus Gomez: I’ll go deeper into this soon, as there was a lot to love. Something that flew under the radar a bit was how solid the wing play was from Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie. The shooting percentages are not sustainable, but they looked comfortable out there and ready to give solid minutes for a team that is looking deeper than anticipated.
J.R. Wilco: I have three positives I saw. First: Harper’s decision making, first step, and lack of hurry are preternatural.
Second: It’s unfortunate that the team is beginning the season banged up, but they’re so deep this year that we’re not stuck expecting losses until full health. That’s huge!
Third: Wemby’s ability to utilize his body and see the game are likely the transformative forces that will elevate the team this season. When you add his aggression to the mix, it’s a potent brew that I think leads to postseason play.
How much do you think the injuries to De’Aaron Fox and Jeremy Sochan will negatively impact the Spurs in the first few games?
Dubinski: Again, not to take the preseason too seriously, but not as bad as one may have thought going in if the depth they’ve shown was any indication. Do the Spurs need them in the long term? Absolutely, but Stephon Castle is more than ready to fill in and continue his rise, and Dylan Harper looked even more NBA ready than expected. (Who says you can have too much of a good thing?) The Spurs are also going to need Sochan’s intensity and defense in the long run, but Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie can fill the hole in other ways in the meantime, especially on offense.
Barrington: The absence of Sochan could be a problem with the Mavericks, because his length and defensive ability could be helpful against a long team like Dallas. Mitigating that is the twin towers lineup with Wemby and Kornet. Fox is going to take a while to get back to full speed, but it looks like Castle is taking a leap in his second year, and I’m not too worried with him playing lead guard. Harper looked fantastic in preseason, but he’ll probably have some growing pains in his rookie year, and it won’t hurt to give him lots of time on the court to work that out. I think it’s more of an opportunity than a problem for the Silver and Black.
Douglas: It will hurt them on the defensive end. Fox and Sochan are two of the team’s best perimeter defenders. San Antonio will face the Mavericks, Pelicans and Raptors in the first four games, likely without Fox and Sochan. On paper, the Spurs should win those games, but those teams are big and athletic, if nothing else. Having another pesky perimeter defender in Fox, and a stout, versatile stopper like Sochan would be helpful tools for those matchups.
Gomez: Fox is a star, the type of guy who can pour in 20 points in his sleep. Sochan is the team’s best defender. It’s not great that they’ll be out. That said, the team’s depth at point guard and the arrival of Luke Kornet can help mask their absences. There will be times when they’ll be missed, but the Spurs should be able to survive without them for a few games.
Wilco: Because the team has had so many changes over the summer, is this something we can discuss with any amount of accuracy before the team plays at full strength for a few weeks? I guess that’s the negative impact: fans have to wait even longer before they can see what the team is capable of doing at full strength.
Prediction time: How many games do you think the Spurs will win and where will they finish in the West?
Dubinski: The West is getting more unpredictable by the day, and the perfect preseason makes it hard not to bump the Spurs up (which I’m starting to see some predictions doing). I would say 50+ wins/top 4 is their ceiling, and I’m admittedly more positive it could happen now than I was a few weeks ago, especially if they have more injury luck this season while others don’t. A more grounded prediction would have them around 45 wins and in the 5-8 seed range.
Barrington: Let’s not go crazy. I think probably about 45 games is a good target. They’re going to make the playoffs if they stay reasonably healthy, but there’s just a lot of growing this team has to do before they become championship contenders. This is the transition season for them to learn how to compete at that level. A level they’ll be at in a season or two.
Douglas: San Antonio’s win total projection is 44.5 according to oddsmakers. I like them to hit the over by 2 or 3 games, putting them right around 47-48 wins. That likely puts them around the 6 or 7 seed in the Western Conference. I’m betting on Wemby being a first-team All-NBA player, and the collective increase in talent across the board. If the team can stay healthy for the majority of the season, I don’t see why they can’t hit this total.
Gomez: I think, assuming decent injury luck, around 47 wins seems reasonable. Will that be enough to avoid the play-in? Last season, the seventh seed won 48 games and the sixth, 49. I can see the Spurs finishing either sixth or seventh, but if they are healthy, they should make the playoffs even if they have to play an extra game to get there.
Wilco: Last season, I offered the most optimistic win total prediction by far, and I want the record to show that before Wemby’s DVT started bothering him they were on pace to meet it! This season, I don’t know that I can top Marilyn’s over 50 wins and home court for the first round assessment. But I’ll go for 50 wins as a ceiling if all goes well.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock