By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-03-09 23:14:32
马刺在过去的16场比赛中赢下了15场，目前在负场数上仅落后雷霆队两场。他们能夺得西部头名吗？即便这意味着要增加主力球员的上场时间，他们也应该全力去争取吗？
马克·巴灵顿 (Mark Barrington)： 我认为他们不会为了在常规赛收官阶段冲刺而改变既定战略。他们稳居前四，至少能获得一轮季后赛的主场优势。球队将集中精力继续提升状态并保持健康。这种心态完全可能让他们最终拿到西部第一，但这绝非首要目标。
比尔·黄 (Bill Huan)： 我看没戏。关于马刺可能从一支统治级常规赛球队手中夺走榜首的讨论，让我想起了2016-17赛季，当时他们在勇士队甩开身位前一度只落后一两场比赛。俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 几个月来一直在蓄力，优先考虑健康。他们依然领先，我完全期待他们会在季后赛开始前重新进入季后赛模式并统治比赛。
至于上场时间，我唯一关注的球员是维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)。为了让马刺在本赛季发挥出最大潜力，他需要具备承担30至35分钟负荷的能力，而队内其他人的状态似乎都已经调整得不错了。
德文·伯德桑 (Devon Birdsong)： 我认为如果说我们在过去几个赛季学到了什么，那就是马刺有自己的时间表和准绳，除非看到明确的（风险可控的）优势，否则他们不会偏离轨道。除非在最后几周他们离雷霆只有一场胜差，否则从管理层和教练组的角度来看，我并不认为他们会做出特殊努力去冲刺。然而，你永远不能低估球员和他们在场上的表现所带来的变数。球员们显然有自己的渴望和目标，他们追求目标的方式已经在某种程度上超越了管理层最乐观的预测。我认为最可能的情况是，一旦锁定西部第二的位置，他们就会在最后阶段开始轮休。但如果这种火热势头持续下去，发现他们正在争夺头号种子我并不会感到惊讶，这真的说明了这支球队的实力。
杰杰·戈麦斯 (Jeje Gomez)： 如果最后几场比赛有望冲击头名，他们或许应该放手一搏。附加赛的存在意味着季后赛开始前有更多的休息时间，所以多打几分钟应该无伤大雅。最后几场比赛可能会很艰难，但他们拥有主场优势。头号种子能确保他们在分区决赛前避开雷霆，并对阵实力较弱的附加赛球队。更重要的是，将最后几场视为“必须赢下”的比赛可以为季后赛做准备。冒险受伤当然没意义，但进一步缩减轮换阵容可以让他们进入季后赛心态，这对这样一支年轻球队大有裨益。
马刺本赛季两度负于尼克斯。是运气不佳，还是对手的某些特质让圣安东尼奥难以招架？
巴灵顿： 纽约尼克斯 (New York Knicks) 是一支老练的球队，拥有一位不可思议的球场领袖——杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)。布伦森能随心所欲地掌控比赛，他的球队拥有足够的高度和投射能力给马刺制造麻烦，尤其是卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 的存在限制了文班亚马放空对位人去保护篮筐的策略。我认为马刺正在实战中学习如何磨练心态来对抗布伦森这种老将的领导力，但他们仍然缺乏一个强力前锋来抗衡唐斯，唐斯的速度太快，导致“法式香草 (French Vanilla)”阵容难以奏效。如果马刺在季后赛遇到他们，那将是一场硬仗，但我愿意接受，因为那意味着马刺打进了总决赛，这比我最乐观预测的时间还要早2到3年。
黄： 两场比赛的样本量太小，无法下定论，但阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 对文班亚马的防守似乎是决定性因素。在七场四胜制的系列赛中，马刺可以制定更好的方案，我认为竞争会激烈得多。显然，如果相遇，那就意味着马刺进了总决赛。我一点也不担心这组对阵，如果未来我需要为此担心，那说明这支马刺距离总冠军只有四场胜利之遥。
伯德桑： 确实有一定的运气成分，但归根结底在于三个因素：1. 马刺在防守三分球方面仍不稳定，而尼克斯的阵容可以疯狂下起三分雨。2. 杰伦·布伦森是少数几个拥有足够经验和韧性来成功突破斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 防守的后卫之一。3. 最重要的一点，唐斯是少数几个能用远程投射扭曲圣安东尼奥首选防守策略的大个子之一。这种投射迫使马刺要么让文班追防到外线（从而留出禁区空档），要么收缩内线让唐斯在马刺薄弱的四号位上予取予求。唐斯在双方过去4次交手中的3场都投出了40%以上的三分命中率，而马刺阵容中没有其他足够高大且迅捷的球员能干扰他，这让他（以及尼克斯）成了圣安东尼奥的对位噩梦。
戈麦斯： 这是一个糟糕的对位。拥有空间型大个子和高大侧翼的球队往往会给马刺制造麻烦，因为他们暴露了马刺前锋位置上长度不足的问题，并迫使文班亚马防出去或四处游走，这有时会让他感到困惑，因为当他直接参与战术时表现最出色。但尼克斯比大多数球队更难对付的原因在于进攻篮板。唐斯不仅是顶级射手，在冲抢篮板方面也表现出色，而米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 堪称世界上最顶尖的进攻篮板手。担心纽约没什么意义，因为除非两队都打进总决赛，否则他们不会成为季后赛对手，但他们确实为其他球队提供了击败圣安东尼奥的蓝图。
假设马刺稳居前二，你希望他们在首轮面对哪支潜在的附加赛球队？
巴灵顿： 我觉得打菲尼克斯太阳 (Phoenix Suns) 不错。马刺虽然输给过他们两次，但我认为这反而对“银黑军团”有利，因为他们会动力十足，从开场就全力以赴。此外，太阳队内部似乎有些不和，这可能让他们更容易被击败。
马刺另一个可能的对手是金州勇士 (Golden State Warriors)，我觉得他们更难对付，尤其是如果斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 保持健康的话。说实话，马刺首轮梦寐以求的剧本是在全员健康的情况下完成横扫，并在次轮开始前获得充分休息，而对阵健康的勇士队，这几乎不可能发生。
如果只是为了看场精彩的比赛，我希望能打波特兰开拓者 (Portland Trail Blazers)，他们在西部排名中打出了远超预期的表现。但我不认为他们能在附加赛连赢两场。洛杉矶快船 (Los Angeles Clippers) 可能是目前这四支球队中实力最强的，但到赛季结束时，我预计他们要么进入前六，要么完全掉出附加赛，这取决于科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的健康状况。他们没有中间地带。
黄： 在所有选项中，对阵波特兰会让我感觉最稳。丹尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 是他们唯一的可靠组织者，但他正饱受背伤困扰。坦白说，我不想看到势头火热的快船，也不想看到迎来状态刷新的库里的勇士。太阳队也很难对付，考虑到他们今年给文班制造了多少麻烦。西部的深度突然间比赛季初期看起来要厚实得多。
伯德桑： 我真的希望他们能避开勇士和快船，所以剩下的只有波特兰和菲尼克斯。在这两者中，我认为波特兰是更好的选择，不过马刺可能需要拿到头号种子才能实现。按目前情况看，我觉得对手会是太阳。老实说，这可能是一个不错的首轮对阵，因为如果马刺打得松懈，他们就无法战胜这支球队。此外，我也很乐意看到马刺有机会让太阳球迷感到痛苦。抱歉，老狗学不会新把戏（也没法让宿敌恩怨随风而去）。
戈麦斯： 显而易见的答案是波特兰。除非运气爆棚，否则他们没有足够的进攻发起能力来赢下一轮系列赛，但这也是他们不太可能杀出附加赛的原因。在其余三支球队中，勇士会让马刺头疼，因为他们能打五外阵容并将对手引入投篮对攻战；而快船拥有空间型大个子和尼克斯那种侧翼高度。因此，首选会是太阳，他们虽然有“马刺杀手”杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green)，但也有传统大个子让文班亚马去对位防守。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The red-hot Spurs are making a push for the top record in the league
The red-hot Spurs are making a push for the top record in the league
The Spurs have won 15 of their last 16 and are only two games behind the Thunder on the loss column. Can they take the top seed in the West? And should they go for it even if it means playing their starters more?
Mark Barrington: I don’t think they ‘go for it’ in the sense that they change their strategy for the final stretch of games going into the playoffs. They’re comfortably in the top four and will have at least one home playoff series. They’re going to concentrate on continuing to improve and staying healthy. It’s entirely possible that that could result in a first-place finish in the west, but that’s not the primary goal.
Bill Huan: I can’t see that happening. The discourse about the Spurs potentially securing the top seed over a dominant regular-season team is reminiscent of the 2016-17 season, when they were within a game or two of the Warriors before Golden State pulled away. Oklahoma City has held its best punch for months now, prioritizing health. They’re still ahead, and I fully expect them to start rounding into playoff form and dominate games again before the postseason.
As for the minutes, the only player I’ll be monitoring for that is Wemby. He needs to be able to handle a load in the low-mid thirties for the Spurs to maximize their potential this season, and everyone else on the team seems to be in a good spot already.
Devon Birdsong: I think if there’s anything we’ve learned over the last several seasons, it’s that the Spurs have their timelines and guardrails in place, and they’re not going to deviate from them unless they see a clear (risk-limited) advantage in doing so. Unless they’re within a game of the Thunder in the final weeks of the stretch run, I just don’t see them making a special effort to do so from a front-office/coaching perspective. However, you can never count out what the players and their on-court performances might lead to. They clearly have their own desires and goals, and the way they’re pursuing them has already put them in a place that has (on some level) surpassed even the most optimistic of the front office’s projections. I think the most likely scenario is that they’ll start resting players once/if their position as a 2nd seed is solidified down the home stretch. However, if this hot streak keeps up, I would not be shocked to find them fighting for the #1 seed, which really says everything about this team.
Jeje Gomez: If the top seed is attainable in the last few games, they should probably go for it. The play-in games mean more rest before the start of the playoffs, so a few extra minutes shouldn’t matter that much. Some of the last few games could be tough, but they are at home. The top seed would guarantee that they wouldn’t have to face the Thunder until the conference finals and would pit them against the lesser of the play-in teams, but, more importantly, taking those last few games as must-wins could prepare them for the postseason. It would make no sense to risk injury, but tightening up an already shrinking rotation even more could put them in a playoff mindset, which could help such a young team.
The Spurs have lost to the Knicks twice this season. Bad luck, or is there anything about them that makes them a bad matchup for San Antonio?
Barrington: The Knicks are a veteran team with an incredible on-court leader in Jalen Brunson. Brunson can impose his will, and his team has the size and shooting to cause the Spurs problems, with KAT limiting the strategy of having Wemby lay off of his man and protect the rim. I think the Spurs are learning on the fly to gain the mental resilience to take on the veteran leadership of Brunson, but they still don’t have a big forward to counter Towns, who is too quick for a French Vanilla lineup to work. If the Spurs meet them in the playoffs, it will be a tough matchup, but I’d take it, because that would mean that the Spurs were in the NBA finals, about 2-3 years before I would have predicted that in my most optimistic scenarios.
Huan: Two games are too small a sample size to come to definitive conclusions, but it does appear like OG’s defense on Wemby is the x-factor. In a 7-game series where the Spurs can come up with a better gameplan, I think things would be a lot closer, and it would obviously mean that they made it to the finals. I’m not worried about the matchup in the slightest, and if I need to be in the future, it would mean that this Spurs team is four games away from a championship.
Birdsong: There’s certainly some bad luck involved, but it really comes down to three factors. 1. The Spurs are still inconsistent defending the three, and the Knicks have a roster that can really pour them on. 2. Jalen Brunson is one of the few guards who has enough savvy and grit to successfully fight through and counter Stephon Castle’s defense. 3. And most importantly, Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the few big men whose long-distance shooting can warp San Antonio’s preferred defensive schemes. That shooting forces the Spurs to either let Wemby pursue him to the perimeter, opening up the post for exploitation, or stay home and allow Towns to benefit from the Spurs’ weak spot at power forward. Towns has shot 40% from three in 3 of their last 4 games against each other, and there’s no other player on the roster big enough and fast enough to trouble Towns, which has been making him (and the Knicks) a matchup nightmare for San Antonio.
Gomez: It’s a bad matchup. Teams with stretch bigs and big wings tend to give the Spurs trouble because they expose the lack of length at the forward spots and force Wemby to either step outside or roam, which surprisingly confuses him at times, as he seems at his best when he’s directly involved in plays. But what makes the Knicks a worse matchup than most is their offensive rebounding. Towns is not only an elite shooter, but he has been crashing the glass well, and Mitchell Robinson is arguably the best offensive rebounder in the world. Worrying about New York doesn’t make much sense since they won’t be a playoff rival unless the two teams make the finals, but they do offer others a blueprint on how to beat San Antonio.
Assuming the Spurs stay in one of the top two spots, which potential play-in team would you like them to face in the first round?
Barrington: I think I’d be happy with a Suns matchup. The Spurs have lost two games to them, but I think that could work in the Silver and Black’s favor, as they’ll be motivated to play with maximum effort from the start. Also, the Suns seem to be having a bit of internal dissension, and that might make them a little easier to beat.
The other likely matchup for the Spurs would be the Warriors, and I think they might be a tougher out, especially if Steph Curry is healthy. Really, the dream scenario for the Spurs in the first round is a sweep with everyone healthy, and a good rest before the second round starts, and that would be extremely unlikely against a healthy Golden State squad.
If I were just looking for a fun series, I’d ask for the Trail Blazers, who are punching above their weight in the Western Conference Standings. But I don’t see them winning two play-in games against any of the possible opponents. The Clippers are probably the best team in the play-in range of any of the current four, but by the end of the season, I expect that they’ll be either in the top 6 or out of the play-in tournament completely, depending on Kawhi’s health. There’s no middle ground for them.
Huan: Out of all the options, I’d feel the best facing Portland. Deni is their lone reliable creator, and he’s having back issues. Frankly, I don’t want to see a red-hot Clippers team or a potential Warriors squad getting back a refreshed Steph. Phoenix would be a tough out too, given how much trouble they’ve created for Wemby this year, and the West is suddenly looking much deeper than it did earlier in the season.
Birdsong: I really would prefer for them to avoid the Warriors and the Clippers, so that really only leaves Portland and Phoenix, and out of those two, I think Portland would be the better option. The Spurs would probably need to land the #1 seed for that to happen, though. By default, I think it’s going to be Phoenix. And honestly, that might be a good first-round matchup for the Spurs, because that’s not a team they can succeed against if they get sloppy. Also, I love the opportunity the Spurs would have to make Phoenix fans miserable. Sorry, can’t teach this old dog new tricks (or get him to let old rivalries go).
Gomez: The obvious answer is Portland. They just don’t have enough shot creation to win a playoff series unless everything breaks right for them, but that’s also the reason why they are unlikely to come out of the play-in. Out of the other three teams, the Warriors give the Spurs trouble because they can play five-out and lure opponents into shooting contests, and the Clippers have a stretch big and the type of perimeter length that the Knicks also have. So the preferred option would be Phoenix, which has Spurs-killer Jalen Green, but also traditional bigs for Wemby to guard.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock