By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2025-12-01 21:03:00
NBA季中锦标赛的下一站是什么？
阿联酋航空NBA杯已于周五结束其小组赛阶段，并确定了四组对决，每场比赛的胜者都将获得一张前往拉斯维加斯的门票：东部对阵为多伦多猛龙队对阵纽约尼克斯队，以及奥兰多魔术队对阵迈阿密热火队；西部对阵则为俄克拉荷马城雷霆队对阵菲尼克斯太阳队，以及洛杉矶湖人队对阵圣安东尼奥马刺队。
但在12月9日淘汰赛开打之前，我们的NBA内部专家团将对又一年激动人心的小组赛进行复盘，并对四分之一决赛进行前瞻。在前四场比赛中，哪位超级巨星脱颖而出？哪支黑马球队将延续其杯赛征程？
而且，最重要的是，这些球队中有谁有机会战胜雷霆队吗？
你心目中的NBA杯小组赛MVP是_____。
Vincent Goodwill： 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)，这完全基于他过去一周上演的两场杰作。一场是他在同城对手洛杉矶快船队的地盘上搅局，打出了43分13篮板9助攻的表现，这让克里斯·邓恩 (Kris Dunn) 懊恼不已，以至于差点引发数次冲突。随后，东契奇用一场35分11篮板5助攻的表演，让达拉斯独行侠队回想起了他们当初交易走他时的场景，这场比赛的光芒甚至盖过了安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 回归洛杉矶的风头。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 如今打球几乎不费吹灰之力，这并非他的错，但就本次讨论而言，在杯赛期间，湖人队每晚都需要东契奇在方方面面挺身而出。而他，不负众望。
Tim MacMahon： 东契奇。这个决定归结于两位职业生涯已荣誉等身的候选人：东契奇和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。他们都为各自以不败战绩横扫小组赛的球队贡献了夸张的数据——尽管这些数据按他们的标准来看并不算罕见。东契奇场均贡献36.5分、8.3个篮板和10.5次助攻，投篮命中率为49.4%，三分命中率为45.5%。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大场均得分（34.5分）超过了场均上场时间（33.0分钟），投篮三项命中率高达.589/.563/.860，此外他每场还能贡献6.3次助攻和1.8次抢断。尽管SGA上赛季包揽了常规赛、分区决赛和NBA总决赛的MVP，延续他的MVP连胜纪录很有诱惑力，但在这里我们还是略微倾向于东契奇。
Dave McMenamin： 德文·布克 (Devin Booker)。很难反驳吉尔杰斯-亚历山大或东契奇应该得到最高优先级的考虑，但让我们把赞誉送给来自一支令人惊喜的太阳队中的一位惊喜候选人。在周五对阵雷霆的比赛中，布克在第四节贡献7分、4个篮板和3次助攻，帮助球队将一度落后15分的分差缩小到只差1分，此时比赛仅剩不到三分钟。雷霆队最终以四分险胜——这是他们自揭幕战以来赢球分差最小的一场——而这也是太阳队在小组赛阶段的唯一一场失利。在取得3胜1负战绩的过程中，布克场均得到23分、7.8次助攻和6.0个篮板，并带领菲尼克斯队从一个包括了在2024年季后赛中横扫他们的明尼苏达森林狼队的小组中脱颖而出。布克在新教练的指导下，身边围绕着全新的阵容，在赛季进行四分之一时就让太阳队进入了季后赛竞争者的行列——在球队休赛期送走凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 和布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 后，很少有人能预见到这一点。
Kevin Pelton： 吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。尽管根据我的胜利贡献值（WARP）指标，东契奇在杯赛中的表现稍好一些，但我还是会选择SGA。毕竟，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的每回合效率更高，他之所以在总数据上落后于东契奇，仅仅是因为他少打了26分钟。这几乎完全可以归因于SGA在第四节庆祝俄克拉荷马城大胜时坐在板凳上的时间。
Ohm Youngmisuk： 吉尔杰斯-亚历山大——必须是他。这位联盟卫冕MVP让卫冕冠军看起来更加不可战胜。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大状态火热，并立志要比上赛季拿下总决赛MVP时更加出色。在迄今为止的四场杯赛中，他场均贡献34.5分、6.2次助攻，投篮命中率高达58.9%。如果吉尔杰斯-亚历山大能够带领雷霆队重返杯赛总决赛，很难想象这位超级巨星会像去年总决赛输给密尔沃基雄鹿队时那样，全场24投8中，其中三分球9投2中。
小组赛最大的惊喜是_____。
McMenamin： 热火队找到了保持竞争力的方法。在经历了上赛季的吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 闹剧以及泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 因左脚踝手术缺席本赛季第一个月之后，热火队进入新赛季时并没有引起太多关注。然而，他们休赛期交易得到的诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 在希罗缺阵期间，为教练埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra) 提供了一个可靠的得分点。再加上侧翼球员安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins) 和小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.) 的贡献，以及内线巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 和凯尔·威尔 (Kel’el Ware) 的镇守，迈阿密再次成为一支没人想在赛程表上看到的球队。热火队在小组赛阶段取得了3胜1负的战绩，在此过程中他们在一场胶着的比赛中战胜了密尔沃基雄鹿，并大胜了芝加哥公牛队。
Pelton： 马刺队在维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 缺席小组赛最后一周的情况下赢得了西部C组的头名。死亡之组果然名不虚传，其中包含了联盟净胜分排名前三的两支球队（丹佛掘金队和休斯顿火箭队），且没有一支球队的战绩差于8胜11负。在有文班的情况下击败休斯顿之后，圣安东尼奥马刺队摆脱了他因小腿伤势缺阵的影响，在波特兰和丹佛连续赢下了两场必须拿下的客场比赛。
MacMahon： 猛龙队在A组的一路高歌。多伦多队是本赛季联盟最令人愉快的惊喜，在连续两个赛季遭遇50+场失利后，他们已经将自己塑造成东部的早期竞争者。猛龙队以不败战绩轻松通过小组赛，包括在客场以两位数优势战胜了克利夫兰骑士队和亚特兰大老鹰队，而这两支球队曾被预期会处于或接近东部积分榜的顶端。
Youngmisuk： 猛龙队拿下A组头名——而不是许多人预期会成为东部前三的骑士队。多伦多队在揭幕战中大胜亚特兰大，随后连输四场，但此后在16场比赛中赢了13场，包括杯赛中的全部四场。如果斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 和布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 能带领猛龙队夺得杯赛冠军，北境绝对应该在他们2019年NBA总冠军旗帜旁边再升起一面旗帜。
Goodwill： 魔术队充分利用了摆在他们面前的机会。上周二无情地痛击费城76人队，从而在赢得每场比赛的基础上创造了巨大的净胜分优势，这已经足够令人印象深刻，但他们在赛季开局并不顺利的情况下依然处理好了自己的事务。而且，他们的四场杯赛胜利中有三场是在没有保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 的情况下取得的。如果他能及时从腹股沟伤势中恢复并赶上淘汰赛，他们的征程将更具看点。
最引人入胜的四分之一决赛对决是_____。
Youngmisuk： 热火队对阵魔术队。给我一场佛罗里达德比，来争夺一张通往拉斯维加斯的门票。在赛季揭幕战输给奥兰多之后，进攻端焕然一新的迈阿密队在19场比赛中赢了13场。热火队本赛季已有七次得分至少达到130分，场均得到123.6分，位居联盟第二。而且他们刚刚迎回了希罗。在上赛季首轮被横扫并以一场耻辱性的55分惨败结束后，热火队希望能够通过一次深入的杯赛之旅来继续他们的逆袭。另一方面，魔术队一直打得很快，进攻效率排名第八，并且开始重拾他们赖以成名的强悍防守特质。
Pelton： 热火队对阵魔术队。迈阿密队的进攻以赢得单挑为基础，而要做到这一点，面对奥兰多队的先发五虎并不容易。尽管魔术队本赛季的防守不如上赛季稳固，但他们在NBA杯赛中的防守效率排名第二。我预计这场比赛的得分会比迈阿密队排名第一的比赛节奏通常所暗示的要低。
Goodwill： 太阳队对阵雷霆队。没人会说菲尼克斯队是最令人兴奋的球队，但如果周五晚上在俄克拉荷马城那场惊心动魄的比赛能说明什么的话，他们不会是块好啃的骨头。（SGA居然不得不在第四节出场并且紧张了一下才惊险取胜！）太阳队可以用来对位这位MVP的球员让这场重赛充满乐趣，我们也将再次看到布克试图破解那曾将他限制到13投5中的地狱般的雷霆队防守。有理由相信他这次会打得更具侵略性。
MacMahon： 马刺队对阵湖人队。文班亚马能及时从他的小腿拉伤中恢复，赶上马刺队的洛杉矶之行吗？如果可以，那么文班对阵东契奇的星光熠熠，将难以被超越。他们显然不会直接对位，但这是联盟最具统治力的防守力量与可以说联盟最佳进攻球员之间的较量。东契奇在11月5日以118-116战胜马刺队的比赛中得到35分和13个篮板，但他27投9中的表现并不算亮眼。
McMenamin： 尼克斯队对阵猛龙队。这是一个重温两队在2023年那笔交易的绝佳由头。那笔交易将RJ·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett)、伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley) 和一个2024年的次轮签送到了多伦多，而OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、普雷舍斯·阿丘瓦 (Precious Achiuwa) 和马拉奇·弗林 (Malachi Flynn) 则去了纽约。现在只有阿奴诺比还留在尼克斯队，这位强悍的3D前锋是一支志在冲击NBA总决赛的球队的关键部分。巴雷特和奎克利都在为多伦多队首发，而那个次轮签被用来选中了乔纳森·莫格博 (Jonathan Mogbo)，这位6尺9寸的大前锋在上赛季作为新秀展现出了一丝潜力。尽管这笔交易看起来对双方都有利，但猛龙队目前在东部排名上领先于尼克斯队，并将在丰业银行球馆主场迎战这场四分之一决赛——所以，北境的形势一片大好。
如果_____在淘汰赛中发生，请不要感到惊讶。
MacMahon： 俄克拉荷马城队轻松夺得杯赛冠军，而他们的MVP在淘汰赛的第四节一秒钟都没上。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在雷霆队过去两场杯赛中对阵森林狼队和太阳队的险胜中确实不得不在关键时刻挺身而出，但这些都是例外。在俄克拉荷马城队20胜1负的开局中，他在21场比赛中有11场的第四节都作壁上观，这是NBA最令人羡慕的负荷管理方式。
Goodwill： 热火队震惊所有人。如今没有哪支领先的球队是绝对安全的——三分球和快节奏的进攻确保了这一点——而没有哪支球队比本赛季的热火队更能体现这一点。他们不再是那支靠着90多分赢球的进攻乏力的球队，随着希罗恢复健康以辅助本已状态火热的鲍威尔，热火队可能会让一些人大吃一惊。这在七场四胜制的系列赛中可能不那么可持续，但在一场定胜负的比赛中，斯波尔斯特拉能够针对任何对手设计出几乎任何比赛计划。
McMenamin： 如果文班亚马获准复出，他将在这个新舞台上大放异彩。是的，指望圣安东尼奥队在洛杉矶击败湖人队以赢得一张前往拉斯维加斯的门票，然后大概率还需要淘汰卫冕冠军才能进入杯赛决赛，这确实是一项艰巨的任务。但话又说回来，马刺队可能会迎回他们7尺4寸的“变数制造者”。自11月14日以来，文班亚马因左小腿拉伤，他出色的赛季表现被迫暂停，但如果他能及时在四分之一决赛中重返赛场，他就能在攻防两端制造足够多的麻烦，帮助马刺队走得更远。
Youngmisuk： 猛龙队延续他们惊艳的开局。永远不要低估赢得杯赛所带来的额外动力，以及这可能会如何激励一支球队，尤其是一支很少有人预料到会出现在这里的球队。我将猛龙队视为这场杯赛派对的终极搅局者。巴雷特至少将缺席四分之一决赛，但这给了他们阵中一位无名角色球员一个机会，来展示他们对那份额外奖金的渴望。
Pelton： 魔术队并不急于为了NBA杯而冒险让班凯罗的健康承担风险。从长远来看，这支奥兰多队的最强版本将包括班凯罗，但他的缺席帮助了德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 在进攻中找到自己的位置，也让安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black) 成为更大的贡献者。包括班凯罗在纽约受伤的那场比赛在内，魔术队在他缺阵的情况下取得了7胜2负的战绩。两场失利中的一场是由于两名首发在背靠背第二场比赛中轮休，另一场则是在加时赛中输给了休斯顿。
在其余七支球队中，_____最有机会击败雷霆队。
MacMahon ：湖人队？他们有三位球星，有能力在任何一个晚上带领球队取胜。但要对湖人队——或任何其他球队——爆冷击败如日中天的雷霆队抱有真正的信心是很难的。毕竟，雷霆队在本赛季两队唯一一次交锋中以29分的优势大胜湖人队。没错，勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 那晚没有上场，但雷霆队的全NBA前锋杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 同样也没有出战。
McMenamin ：瞧瞧MacMahon选了湖人队——谁快去看看天上是不是有猪在飞。我会选择尼克斯队。他们拥有能够跟上高得分的雷霆队的进攻火力，是联盟中仅有的五支场均得分超过120分的球队之一——其中也包括雷霆队。而且尼克斯队拥有一群在过去几个赛季里打过许多重要比赛的球员；他们应该能够更上一层楼。
Youngmisuk ：湖人队。以东契奇现在的打法，他可以凭借一己之力接管比赛，并且有足够的火力与卫冕MVP吉尔杰斯-亚历山大一较高下。东契奇知道如何击败俄克拉荷马城。他和独行侠队是两个赛季前在季后赛系列赛中最后击败雷霆队的球队。而这一次，东契奇只需要击败雷霆队一次。詹姆斯的体能将更接近恢复，而奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 在本赛季早些时候连续两场比赛合砍92分后，手感也再次变得火热。
Pelton ：湖人队。如果到了2026年，雷霆队将在可能的半决赛对决中享有主场优势。然而，在目前的赛制下，那场比赛将在湖人队的“第二主场”——拉斯维加斯的T-Mobile球馆进行。湖人队在2023年赢得首届NBA杯的征程中就受益于观众优势，而这一次这种优势可能会更加明显。
Goodwill ：猛龙队。他们实际上符合那种能在一场定胜负的比赛中给俄克拉荷马城这台机器制造一些麻烦的球队的特点——即拥有高大且臂展出众的侧翼球员来对付吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和复出的杰伦·威廉姆斯。多伦多队能限制对手获得空位三分的机会（防守效率联盟第六），并且拥有斯科蒂·巴恩斯和布兰登·英格拉姆这两位能在开放进攻中创造大量机会的球员。
真相或谎言：2026年NBA总决赛的两支球队都在杯赛四分之一决赛的队伍中。
Pelton： 谎言。东部冠军是否会从这四支球队中产生，这是一个值得商榷的问题。事实上，使用ESPN的篮球实力指数（BPI）进行的预测显示，概率几乎是五五开。然而，尽管俄克拉荷马城队是进入总决赛可能性最大的球队，但也绝非板上钉钉，西部冠军也未必会从这四支球队中产生。
MacMahon： 谎言。我在这份名单中看不到最终的东部冠军。底特律活塞队可能是赢得该分区的最佳选择，特别是如果底特律的前台利用其灵活性和完整的未来首轮选秀权，在交易截止日前采取激进举措，为他们才华横溢的年轻核心阵容进行补强。
Goodwill： 谎言。我曾一度想选择东部的季前大热尼克斯队进入总决赛。他们没有让人失望，但在赛季的第一个四分之一里，他们也并未真正给人留下深刻印象。此外，任何令人惊喜的竞争者都可能通过人员调整全力以赴，让这个春天变得非常有趣。
McMenamin： 谎言。虽然从这批球队中产生一组总决赛对决会是很有分量的，但两个分区都有太多优秀的球队未被包括在内，因此无法断言我们在六月份不会看到他们。特别是西部的丹佛队和东部的克利夫兰队。
Youngmisuk： 谎言。尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和掘金队，以及凯文·杜兰特和火箭队都不在杯赛四分之一决赛之列。骑士队、活塞队和森林狼队——别忘了明尼苏达已经连续两年进入西部决赛——也可能发起冲击。如果说有什么影响的话，那就是争夺杯赛冠军可能会在冲击总决赛的漫长征途中对一支球队造成消耗。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2025 NBA Cup: Biggest questions ahead of the quarterfinals
2025 NBA Cup: Biggest questions ahead of the quarterfinals
What’s next in the NBA in-season tournament?
The Emirates NBA Cup wrapped its group stage Friday to set up four matchups, each with a trip to Las Vegas at stake: Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks and Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference bracket; Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs in the West.
But before the tournament tips off the knockout rounds Dec. 9, our panel of NBA insiders is breaking down another year of thrilling group stage play and previewing the quarters. Which superstar stood out from the rest across the first four games? Which surprise team will extend its Cup run?
And, most importantly, do any of these teams have a chance against OKC?
Your NBA Cup group stage MVP is _____.
Vincent Goodwill: Luka Doncic, strictly based on the two masterpieces he drew up over the past week. There was his in-town agitation of the LA Clippers, the 43-13-9 showing that had Kris Dunn so upset that it nearly sparked multiple altercations. Then, Doncic reminded the Dallas Mavericks what they traded away with a 35-11-5 performance that overshadowed Anthony Davis’ return to Los Angeles. It’s not Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s fault he barely breaks a sweat nowadays, but for purposes of this exercise, the Lakers have needed Doncic every night in every way during the Cup. And he has delivered.
Tim MacMahon: Doncic. This decision comes down to a couple of candidates who have earned a lot of honors in their careers: Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander. They both put up silly stats – albeit numbers that aren’t unusual by their standards – for squads that rolled through group play undefeated. Doncic averaged 36.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 10.5 assists while shooting 49.4% from the floor and 45.5% on 3s. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged more points (34.5) than minutes (33.0) on .589/.563/.860 shooting splits, plus he contributed 6.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game. As tempting as it is to keep SGA’s MVP streak going after he won the regular season, conference finals and NBA Finals awards last season, we’ll give the slight nod to Doncic here.
Dave McMenamin: Devin Booker. It’s difficult to argue against Gilgeous-Alexander or Doncic getting top consideration, but let’s give praise to a surprise candidate from a surprise Suns team. Booker had 7 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in the fourth quarter against OKC on Friday to help cut what once was a 15-point deficit to one with under three minutes to go. The Thunder eked out a four-point win – their narrowest victory since opening night – and it was the Suns’ only loss of the group stage. Along the way to going 3-1, Booker averaged 23 points, 7.8 assists and 6.0 rebounds and got Phoenix out of a group that included a Minnesota Timberwolves team that swept the Suns out of the 2024 playoffs. Booker, playing for a new coach with a new roster around him, has the Suns in playoff contention a fourth of the way through the season – something few predicted after the franchise parted ways with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in the offseason.
Kevin Pelton: Gilgeous-Alexander. Although Doncic fared slightly better by my wins above replacement player metric in Cup games, I’d give the nod to SGA. After all, Gilgeous-Alexander had the better per-possession rating and was behind Doncic only because he played 26 fewer minutes. That can be attributed almost entirely to the time SGA has spent on the bench in fourth quarters celebrating blowout Oklahoma City wins.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Gilgeous-Alexander – it has to be. The league’s reigning MVP has the defending champs looking even more unbeatable. Gilgeous-Alexander is cooking and on a mission to be even better than last season when he also took home Finals MVP. He’s averaging 34.5 points, 6.2 assists and 58.9% shooting from the field in four Cup games so far. If Gilgeous-Alexander can lead the Thunder back to the Cup title game, it’s hard envisioning the superstar going 8-for-24 from the field, including 2-for-9 from 3, like he did in last year’s championship-game loss to Milwaukee.
The biggest surprise of group play was _____.
McMenamin: The Heat finding a way to stay relevant. After the Jimmy Butler III fiasco last season and Tyler Herro being sidelined for a month to start this season after left ankle surgery, there wasn’t much buzz for the Heat coming into their new campaign. However, their offseason trade for Norman Powell gave coach Erik Spoelstra a go-to scorer while Herro was out. Add wing contributions from Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and the interior presence of Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware, and Miami is once again a team nobody wants to see on the schedule. The Heat went 3-1 in the group stage, winning a close game against Milwaukee and blowing out the Bulls in the process.
Pelton: The Spurs winning West C without Victor Wembanyama for the final week of group play. The group of death proved as advertised, featuring two of the NBA’s top three teams by point differential (the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets) with no team worse than 8-11. After defeating Houston with Wemby, San Antonio shook off his calf injury absence to take a pair of must-win road games in Portland and Denver.
MacMahon: The Raptors’ run through Group A. Toronto has been the league’s most pleasant surprise this season, period, establishing itself as an early contender in the East after consecutive seasons of 50-plus losses. The Raptors cruised through group play unbeaten, including road wins by double-digit margins over the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks, teams that were anticipated to be at or near the top of the conference standings.
Youngmisuk: The Raptors taking Group A – and not the Cavaliers, a team many expect to be one of the top three in the East. Toronto routed Atlanta on opening night and then dropped the next four games but has since won 13 of 16, including all four in the Cup. If Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram can take the Raptors to the Cup title, The North absolutely should raise a banner next to their 2019 NBA championship.
Goodwill: The Magic taking full advantage of what was in front of them. Mercilessly pounding the 76ers last Tuesday to create the wide point differential on top of winning every game was impressive enough, but they’ve taken care of business despite not having the smoothest start to the season. And three of their four Cup wins came without Paolo Banchero. Should he return from his groin injury in time for the knockout stage, their run will gain even more intrigue.
The most intriguing quarterfinal matchup is _____.
Youngmisuk: Heat-Magic. Give me a Florida rivalry for a ticket to Vegas. After dropping the season opener at Orlando, Miami and its revamped offense has won 13 of 19 games. The Heat have scored at least 130 points seven times this season to average 123.6 per game, the second-highest total in the league. And they just got back Herro. Looking to rebound from a humiliating 55-point loss to end last season’s first-round sweep, the Heat can continue their turnaround with a deep Cup run. On the other side, the Magic have been playing fast, rank eighth in offensive rating and are starting to regain their stingy defensive identity.
Pelton: Heat-Magic. Miami’s attack is predicated on winning one-on-one, something that’s not easy to do against Orlando’s starting five. Although the Magic haven’t been as strong defensively as last season, they have the second-best defensive rating in NBA Cup play. I’d expect a lower-scoring game than Miami’s top-ranked pace would typically imply.
Goodwill: Suns-Thunder. Nobody would call Phoenix the most exciting team, but it won’t be an easy out if Friday night’s thriller in Oklahoma City was any indication. (SGA actually had to play in the fourth quarter and sweat a bit to squeak out a win!) The players the Suns can throw at the MVP makes this a fun rematch, and we’ll get to see Booker once again try to figure out the hellacious OKC defense that hounded him into a 5-for-13 performance. It’s smart to assume he’ll be more aggressive this time.
MacMahon: Spurs-Lakers. Will Wembanyama be back from his calf strain in time for the Spurs’ trip to Los Angeles? If so, it’s difficult to top the star power of Wemby vs. Doncic. They obviously won’t match up with each other, but it’s the most dominant defensive force in the league against arguably its best offensive player. Doncic had 35 points and 13 rebounds in a 118-116 win over the Spurs on Nov. 5, but his 9-of-27 performance from the floor wasn’t pretty.
McMenamin: Knicks-Raptors. What a great prompt to revisit the 2023 trade between the two franchises that sent RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick to Toronto and OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn to New York. Only Anunoby remains with the Knicks, and the rugged 3-and-D forward is a key part of a team with NBA Finals aspirations. Barrett and Quickley are both starting for Toronto, and that second-round pick was used on Jonathan Mogbo, a 6-9 power forward who showed a flash of promise as a rookie last season. Though it appears the swap has worked for both sides, the Raptors are currently ahead of the Knicks in the East standings and will host the quarterfinals matchup at Scotiabank Arena – so things are looking up for The North.
Don’t be surprised if _____ in the knockout rounds.
MacMahon: Oklahoma City cruises to the Cup title without its MVP playing a second in the fourth quarter of an elimination game. Gilgeous-Alexander did have to come up clutch in close wins over the Timberwolves and Suns in the Thunder’s past two Cup games, but those have been the exceptions. He has sat out 11 of 21 fourth quarters during Oklahoma City’s 20-1 start, which is the NBA’s most enviable version of load management.
Goodwill: The Heat shock everyone. No lead is safe anymore – 3-point shooting and breakneck offenses have made sure of it – and no team truly embodies that like this season’s Heat. They’re no longer the offensively inept team that wins with point totals in the 90s, and with Herro getting healthy to aid the already-rolling Powell, the Heat could surprise some folks. It might not be as sustainable in a seven-game series, but for a game, Spoelstra can cook up just about any game plan against any opponent.
McMenamin: Wembanyama shines on this new stage if he’s cleared to return. Yes, the thought of San Antonio beating the Lakers in L.A. to earn a trip to Las Vegas and then presumably needing to knock out the defending champs to get to the Cup final is a tall task. But then again, the Spurs could have their 7-foot-4 difference-maker back in the lineup. Wembanyama’s stellar season has been put on hold since Nov. 14 because of a left calf strain, but if he is back on the court in time for the quarterfinals, he can cause enough problems on both ends of the floor to help the Spurs make a run.
Youngmisuk: The Raptors continue their surprising start. Never underestimate the added motivation of winning the Cup and how that might inspire a team, especially one that few expected to be here. I’m looking at the Raptors as the ultimate spoiler for the Cup party. Barrett is out at least for the quarterfinal, but that gives one of their unheralded role players a chance to show how hungry they are for that bonus prize money.
Pelton: The Magic are in no rush to risk Banchero’s health for the NBA Cup. In the long run, the strongest version of this Orlando team will include Banchero, but his absence has helped Desmond Bane find his place in the offense and Anthony Black become a bigger contributor. Including the game in which Banchero was injured at New York, the Magic have gone 7-2 without him. One of the two losses came when two starters sat out the second leg of a back-to-back, and the other was to Houston in overtime.
Of the other seven teams, _____ has the best chance of knocking off OKC.
MacMahon: The Lakers? They have three stars capable of carrying them to a win on any given night. But it’s hard to have any real confidence in the Lakers – or any other team – upsetting the juggernaut Thunder. After all, the Thunder handed the Lakers a 29-point loss in the teams’ only meeting so far this season. No, LeBron James didn’t play that night, but neither did OKC’s All-NBA forward Jalen Williams.
McMenamin: Look at MacMahon picking the Lakers – somebody check the sky for winged swine. I’ll go with the Knicks. They have an offense that can keep up with the high-scoring Thunder as one of only five teams in the league – OKC included – averaging more than 120 points this season. And the Knicks have a group that has played in plenty of big games over the past couple of seasons; they should be able to kick it up a gear.
Youngmisuk: The Lakers. The way Doncic is playing, he can single-handedly take over a game and has the firepower to match reigning MVP Gilgeous-Alexander shot for shot. Doncic knows how to beat Oklahoma City. He and the Mavs are the last team to beat the Thunder in a playoff series two postseasons ago. And this time, Doncic will need to beat OKC once. James will be closer to having his conditioning back, and Austin Reaves is getting hot again after scoring 92 combined points in back-to-back games earlier this season.
Pelton: The Lakers. Come 2026, the Thunder would enjoy home-court advantage for a potential semifinals matchup. Under the current format, however, that game would be played in the Lakers’ home away from home at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Lakers benefited from a crowd advantage en route to winning the inaugural NBA Cup in 2023, and that would figure to be even stronger this time around.
Goodwill: The Raptors. They actually fit the profile of a team that could give the Oklahoma City machine some trouble in a one-game setting – namely long and rangy wings to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander and the returning Jalen Williams. Toronto keeps teams away from clean 3-point looks (sixth in defensive efficiency) and has two players who can create plenty of offense in the open floor in Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram.
Fact or fiction: Both 2026 NBA finalists are playing in the Cup quarters.
Pelton: Fiction. It’s a fair debate whether the East champion will come from that quartet. In fact, projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index have it as almost exactly 50-50. However, it’s no sure thing that the West champion will come from these four teams despite the fact that Oklahoma City is easily the most likely team to reach the Finals.
MacMahon: Fiction. I don’t see the East’s eventual champion in this field. The Detroit Pistons might be the best bet to win that conference, especially if Detroit’s front office uses its flexibility and full complement of future first-round picks to make an aggressive move before the trade deadline to add to the talented young core.
Goodwill: Fiction. It was tempting to choose the preseason favorites in the East, the Knicks, to reach the Finals. They haven’t disappointed, but they haven’t exactly impressed in the first quarter of the season. Plus, any surprise contender can go all-in with personnel moves and make this spring look really interesting.
McMenamin: Fiction. While a Finals matchup from this pool of teams would be a worthy one, there are too many good teams in both conferences not included to definitively declare that we won’t see them in June. Particularly, Denver in the West and Cleveland in the East.
Youngmisuk: Fiction. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets and Kevin Durant and the Rockets aren’t in the Cup quarters. The Cavs, Pistons and Wolves – remember that Minnesota has been to two straight West finals – also could make a run. If anything, trying to win the Cup can take a toll on a team during the grind to reach the Finals.
By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN