By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-10-20 22:20:17
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
转眼间，又一个NBA赛季即将拉开帷幕。
休赛期并未如预期般风起云涌，这也意味着联盟的实力天平依旧严重向西部倾斜。
因此，在这个豪强林立的赛区，当几乎所有球队都志在必胜时，最终的格局将会如何演变？
让我们一探究竟。
冠军争夺者：傲视群雄的顶级梯队
俄克拉荷马城雷霆、丹佛掘金
作为联盟唯二同时拥有联盟前五级别球员和冠军级角色阵容的球队，俄克拉荷马雷霆或丹佛掘金中的一支将成为下一届NBA总冠军。雷霆队的青春与渴望或许能让他们复制2016年勇士队的辉煌，冲击70胜；而掘金队在重塑阵容和管理层后，也终于让“小丑”约基奇再次具备了冲击总冠军的实力。
雷霆队无疑是博彩公司眼中的头号热门，但两队之间的差距尚未大到需要将他们划分到不同档次。让我们一同祈祷所有球员保持健康，因为雷霆与掘金的潜在对决可能成为载入史册的经典之战，甚至应被视为事实上的NBA总决赛。
黑马梯队：若一切顺利，有望冲击西部决赛
休斯顿火箭、明尼苏达森林狼、金州勇士、洛杉矶快船
这些球队都有望在季后赛中走得更远，不过要打进总决赛恐怕希望渺茫。在弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 受伤之前，引进了杜兰特 (KD) 的休斯顿火箭曾一度接近雷霆/掘金所在的梯队。但他的缺阵或许能为阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 打开一扇门，让他实现入选最佳阵容级别的飞跃，并帮助火箭队继续保持竞争力。明尼苏达森林狼在上赛季后半段渐入佳境，并找到了一套能让他们连续两年闯入西部决赛的成功模式。队内老龄化的角色阵容可能会迫使爱德华兹 (Ant) 肩负起更沉重的担子，但这位24岁的年轻人每年都在进步，而且早已习惯了成为众人的依靠。
说到老将，加州的两支老牌劲旅同样不容小觑——前提是队中老将们的膝盖还能撑得住。快船是上赛季最令人惊喜的球队，并在休赛期进一步增强了阵容深度。而科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 既然已经从‘植树护林’的职责中解脱出来，也终于能以健康的状态开启新赛季。最后，金州勇士队则要证明，当吉米 (Jimmy) 在阵中时他们取得的23胜8负战绩并非侥幸，他们希望在库里 (Steph) 生涯的暮年再次向巅峰发起冲击。
季后赛挑战者：目标锁定前六席位
洛杉矶湖人、圣安东尼奥马刺、孟菲斯灰熊
拥有一个减重成功且充满复仇怒火的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)，本应让湖人队稳稳地成为前六席位的有力争夺者，但球队其余的阵容则乏善可陈。勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 已经受伤，并且很快就要年满41岁；‘统治顿’ (Dominayton) 是他们唯一可靠的内线；而奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 则是队中唯一一位仍在上升期且有潜力贡献球星级表现的球员。尽管如此，卢卡的伟大应该足以让湖人队轻松进入季后赛，不过他们真正的争冠窗口期尚未到来。
沿着I-10号州际公路南下，我们来到了马刺队。这是今年联盟中拥有文班级别上下限差距的球队。这位法国天才或许已是联盟前五的球员，如果他能出战70场以上，圣安东尼奥马刺队完全可能复制2024年火箭队的飞跃，成为一支50胜的球队。然而，如果文班再次因伤缺阵，而福克斯 (Fox) 未能重拾全明星状态，马刺队可能会重返乐透区。不过，鉴于他度过了一个‘美食、祈祷与恋爱’般的休赛期，以及他在季前赛中展现的状态，我敢打赌这位‘外星人’最终将在MVP评选中名列前五，并带领圣安东尼奥马刺队迎来文班亚马时代首次季后赛之旅。
另一方面，NBA似乎已经遗忘了莫兰特 (Ja) 和他的灰熊队，而且事出有因。即便如此，孟菲斯灰熊在上赛季的大部分时间里都高居西部第二，这还是在莫兰特打出新秀赛季以来最差表现的情况下。那份不可避免的“孟菲斯灰熊伤病报告”确实令人担忧，但这支球队就是一台常规赛取胜机器，他们将继续稳定地收割胜利。
附加赛梯队：预计排名第7至10位
达拉斯独行侠、波特兰开拓者
啊，接下来是几支令人难以捉摸的球队。如果凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 回归，安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 保持健康，并且库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 能立刻产生影响力，那么达拉斯独行侠有潜力成为一匹黑马。但是……我们讨论的可是独行侠，所以队中老将们继续大面积缺阵的可能性同样存在（甚至更高），而弗拉格则成为球队唯一的亮点。这支球队天赋满满，不至于再降一档，但巨大的不确定性也让他们无法跻身前六种子之列。
波特兰开拓者是另一支“天使与魔鬼”般的双面球队，既可能一飞冲天，也可能一落千丈。他们凭借顶级的防守，在上赛季后半段取得了23胜18负的战绩，并在休赛期引进了朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)。我坚信德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 的进步是实打实的，但斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 的伤病和队内日渐老化的老将们，仍然让开拓者无法保证锁定前十的位置。
悲情地带：迷失方向的球队
菲尼克斯太阳、萨克拉门托国王、新奥尔良鹈鹕
对于支持这些球队的球迷们，我深表同情，因为前路漫漫，一片黑暗。太阳队的超级球队实验最终以三年内仅赢下一轮季后赛系列赛而告终，留下了一套薪资昂贵且缺乏自有选秀权的阵容。萨克拉门托国王队组建了他们自己版本的2014年篮网/2012年湖人，但球员的实力甚至更糟；而鹈鹕队的交易操作更是烂到能让我玩的范特西篮球联赛里排名垫底的哥们都笑出声来。这些球队唯一的共同点就是糟糕的老板，而在这一点改变之前，我们很难看到他们中的任何一支能成为持续的竞争者。
摆烂大队：无需多言
犹他爵士
作为西部唯一一支摆烂的球队，犹他爵士对总冠军争夺战的最大贡献可能就是一笔潜在的劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 的交易。他和爵士队都没有理由继续合作下去，尽管犹他近期的许多决策本就令人费解。除此之外，就好好欣赏埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey) 每晚以45投15中的效率打铁，以及以赛亚·科利尔 (Isaiah Collier) 交出5次助攻和10次失误的表演吧。
点击查看原文：2025-26 NBA season preview: Western Conference tiers
2025-26 NBA season preview: Western Conference tiers
And just like that, another NBA season is upon us.
The offseason wasn’t as busy as expected, which means that the balance of power is still heavily tilted towards the West.
So, with all but one team trying to win in the loaded conference, how will everything shake out?
Let’s find out.
Championship contenders: inner circle contenders that stand above the rest
Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets
As the only teams that have both a top-5 player and a championship-level supporting cast, one of OKC or Denver will be the next NBA champs. The Thunder’s youth and hunger could see them replicate the 2016 Warriors and reach 70 wins, while the Nuggets’ revamped roster and front office have finally put the Joker in position to make another championship run.
OKC is definitely the betting favorites, but the gap between the two teams isn’t big enough to warrant putting them in separate tiers. Let’s all pray for good health because a potential OKC vs Denver clash could become an instant classic, and should be treated as the real NBA finals.
The dark horses: teams that could make the conference finals if everything breaks right
Houston Rockets , Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Los Anegels Clippers
These teams should all have hopes of making a deep run, though a finals appearance won’t be in the cards. Houston adding KD had them flirting with being in the OKC/Denver tier before Fred VanVleet’s injury, but his absence could open the door for Amen Thompson to make an All-NBA level leap and still keep the Rockets in the hunt. Minnesota hit their stride during the second half of last season and has discovered a formula that’s led them to back-to-back WCF appearances. Having an older supporting cast could force Ant to carry a heavier burden, but the 24-year-old has improved every year and is used to having people ask him for support.
Speaking of old, the two Unctions down in California should still be heard from — assuming everyone’s knees hold up. The Clippers were the most surprising team last season and got deeper in the offseason, and Kawhi is finally starting the year healthy now that he’s been relieved from tree-planting duties. Lastly, Golden State is out to prove that their 23-8 record with Jimmy isn’t a fluke as the Warriors try and make another run during Steph’s twilight.
Playoff hopefuls: teams in contention for a top 6 seed
Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies
Having a skinny and vengeful Luka should have the Lakers firmly in the hunt for a top 6 seed, but the rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired. LeBron is already injured and will be turning 41 soon, Dominayton is their one reliable big, and Austin Reaves is the only other player still ascending who could contribute at a star level. Still, Luka’s greatness should allow the Lakers to make the playoffs with ease, although their true contention window hasn’t arrived yet.
Taking a trip down I-10 leads us to the Spurs, the team with a Wemby-sized floor-ceiling gulf in the league this year. The Frenchman might already be a top-5 player, and San Antonio could make a 2024 Houston-type jump and become a 50-win team — assuming he plays 70+ games. However, if Wemby misses time again and Fox fails to regain his All-Star form, the Spurs could be back in the lottery. Given his Eat Pray Love summer and his form in preseason, though, I’m betting on the Alien to finish top-5 in the MVP race and for San Antonio to make their first postseason appearance in the Wembanyama era.
On the other hand, the NBA world has seemingly forgotten about Ja and the Grizzlies, and with good reason. Still, Memphis was the #2 in the West for a large stretch of last year, even with Ja having his worst season since his rookie campaign. The inevitable “Memphis Grizzlies Injury Report” is concerning, but this team is a regular-season wins machine and will continue pumping out Ws consistently.
Play-in fodder: teams who will finish in the 7-10 range
Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers
Ah, here come the confusing teams. Dallas could potentially be a dark horse contender if Kyrie returns, AD stays healthy, and Cooper Flagg makes an immediate impact. Butttt this is the Mavs we’re talking about, and it’s equally (if not more) likely that the veterans continue to miss significant time, and Flagg is the only bright spot on the team. There’s too much talent here to drop them down a tier, but the uncertainty also prevents them from being a top-6 seed.
Portland is another Jekyll and Hyde team that has boom/bust potential. They went 23-18 in the second half of last season on the back of an elite defense and added Jrue Holiday this offseason. I’m a believer that Deni Avdija’s leap is legit, but Scoot’s injury and the aging vets still prevent the Blazers from being a lock to finish in the top-10.
The sphere of sadness: the directionless organizations
Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans
My condolences to those rooting for these teams, as dark days are ahead. The Suns’ superteam experiment ended with one playoff series win in 3 years and an expensive roster that lacks its own picks. Sacramento has assembled their version of the 2014 Nets/2012 Lakers but with even worse players, and the Pelicans are making trades so bad that the guy who finished last in my fantasy league would laugh at them. The one similarity that these franchises all share is poor ownership, and until that changes, it’s hard to see any of them become consistent contenders
Tankapalooza: pretty self-explanatory
Utah Jazz
The only tanking team in the West, Utah’s biggest contribution to a title race is a potential Markannen trade. There’s no reason why he (or the Jazz) should continue their partnership, although many of Utah’s recent decisions haven’t made much sense. Other than that, enjoy watching Ace Bailey go 15-45 every night while Isaiah Collier puts up 5 assists and 10 turnovers.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock