By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-08-26 00:04:25
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
我们正悄然迈入九月，这意味着NBA媒体日和训练营大约一个月后就将拉开帷幕。（当然，如果你是NFL或大学橄榄球的球迷，现在已经有比赛来填补休赛期的空白了！）这个时间点，已经足以让ESPN的“夏季预测专家团”开始发布他们对2025-26赛季的预测了。
今日发布的预测聚焦于一些常规性问题，例如哪支球队将取得最大进步、哪支球队将遭遇最大滑坡、谁会申请交易、是否会产生新科总冠军等等。ESPN的编辑们进行了投票，计分规则为：第一名选票计5分，第二名选票计3分，第三名选票计1分。果不其然，马刺开篇就备受青睐，在“下赛季哪支球队将取得巨大飞跃”的预测中，以55分的总分高居榜首：
马刺曾在1997-98赛季至2018-19赛季期间，创下连续22次闯入季后赛的纪录。而在连续四年手握前十顺位选秀权之后，他们终于有望终结长达六年的季后赛荒。圣安东尼奥这群年轻天才的健康状况和成长进步——尤其是连续两届NBA年度最佳新秀得主维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)——对于引领这支焕然一新的阵容至关重要。这支阵容中如今还包括另一位年度最佳新秀的有力竞争者，即榜眼秀迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，以及新加入的老将，如卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)和凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk)。
文中没有提到的是德亚伦·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)，严格来说，他并非新援，因为他二月份就已加盟。但实际上，他几乎可以算作一名新援，因为他仅与文班共同出战了5场比赛，总共也只打了17场，随后两人都因导致赛季报销的健康问题而缺阵。仅仅是他们二人保持健康，就将为马刺带来一套充满活力的后场/内线组合，这是自2016-17赛季的托尼·帕克 (Tony Parker) 和拉马库斯·阿尔德里奇 (LaMarcus Aldridge) 之后，球队就再未拥有过的。再加上新秀迪伦·哈珀的加入（如果卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 能进入轮换阵容，或许还包括他），以及科内特和奥利尼克在文班身后增强了阵容深度（尽管我并不反对马刺利用第15个阵容名额再签下一名纯正的中锋），他们已经准备好实现我们曾期望上赛季就能达成的飞跃，但最终被健康问题所阻碍。
有趣的是，另一支球队与马刺并列第一，而由于那笔关于他们上一位全明星控卫的交易，这支球队在很长一段时间里都与马刺紧密相连。亚特兰大老鹰队自己也出人意料地度过了一个不错的休赛期。这一情况值得关注，因为马刺拥有与老鹰队互换首轮选秀权的权利，所以他们不希望老鹰队在战绩排名上也实现类似的飞跃。就目前而言，考虑到下赛季东部的竞争格局，基本可以肯定的是，只要马刺自己打出应有的表现，他们将不会获得乐透签。而如果一切按计划进行，选秀顺位本身也应该不再重要了。
这是马刺在今天的预测中唯一上榜的类别，但明天ESPN专家团将对各大奖项的归属进行投票，所以我们预计将会再次看到马刺的身影，至少在一个显而易见的选择上——文班当选年度最佳防守球员——敬请期待！
点击查看原文：ESPN predicts the Spurs will make the biggest leap this season
ESPN predicts the Spurs will make the biggest leap this season
We are creeping towards September, which means NBA media day and training camp is about a month away. (Although if you’re an NFL or college football fan, there is now something to fill the hole!) That’s close enough for what ESPN calls its “Summer Forecast Panel” to start releasing its predictions for the 2025-26 season.
Today’s release focused on some generic questions, such as which teams will take the biggest leap, the biggest hit, who will demand a trade, if there will be a new champion, etc. Staffers voted, and the scoring system consists of first-place votes receiving five points, a second-place vote is three points, and a third-place vote is worth one point. Sure enough, the Spurs got some love right off the bat, coming in first place with 55 points on “which teams will take a major leap” next season:
The Spurs produced a streak of 22 consecutive postseason appearances from 1997-98 to 2018-19 and could finally be poised to end their six-year drought after drafting in the top 10 for four straight years. The health and development of San Antonio’s young talent — especially back-to-back NBA Rookie of the Year winners Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle — will be crucial in leading a revamped roster that now features another Rookie of the Year candidate in No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, along with veteran additions such as Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk.
Not mentioned is De’Aaron Fox, who is technically not a new addition since he arrived in February, but for all intents and purposes, he might as well be considering he only appeared in five games with Wemby and 17 total before both were out with season-ending health issues. The two of them simply being healthy will give the Spurs a dynamic guard/big combo they haven’t had since arguably 2016-17 with Tony Parker and LaMarcus Aldridge. Add the rookie addition of Dylan Harper (and possibly Carter Bryant if he breaks the rotation), as well as shored up depth behind Wemby in Kornet and Olynyk (although I wouldn’t be against the Spurs using that 15th slot to add one more true center), and they are primed to make the leap that we had hoped would come last year until health issues got in the way.
Interestingly, another team tied them for first place, and its the same team they have been tied to the hip to for quite a while thanks to the trade of their last All-Star point guard. The Atlanta Hawks have had a surprisingly good offseason themselves. It’s a situation worth monitoring since the Spurs own the rights to swap first round draft picks, so they would not want the Hawks to make a similar leap up the standings. At this point, considering the state of the East next season, it’s is probably safe to assume the Spurs will not be picking in the lottery if they take care of their own business, but if things go according to plan, that shouldn’t matter anymore.
That was the only category the Spurs landed in today, but tomorrow the ESPN panel will be voting on who will win awards, so we will presumably be back with at least one glaringly obvious vote — Wemby for Defensive Player of the Year — so stay tuned!
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock
