By ESPN staff | ESPN, 2025-08-25 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
2025-26 NBA赛季已不足两个月，新赛季势必又将充满变数，球迷们的期待值也早已拉满。
联盟正准备迎接像凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)、迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 这样的球星在新球队引发的连锁反应，而波士顿凯尔特人队和印第安纳步行者队等其他球队则在为失去当家球星的赛季做准备。这些新面孔的到来以及伤病情况，是否会催生一位出人意料的NBA总冠军？
ESPN的夏季预测专家团由我们的NBA内部专家组成，他们将回答2025-26赛季来临之际联盟最受关注的几大问题，包括哪支球队有望强势反弹，哪些球星可能离开现属球队，以及我们是否会连续第八个赛季见证新王加冕。（计分规则如下：第一名选票计5分，第二名选票计3分，第三名选票计1分。）
以下是预测结果：
注：我们的2025-26 NBA夏季预测将于周二继续，届时将公布所有主要奖项的预测结果。
球队强势反弹：哪些球队将实现巨大飞跃？
并列第一：圣安东尼奥马刺/亚特兰大老鹰： 55分
第二名：费城76人： 49分
第三名：奥兰多魔术： 48分
第四名：明尼苏达森林狼： 6分
第五名：休斯顿火箭： 5分
马刺队曾在1997-98赛季至2018-19赛季期间创下连续22年闯入季后赛的辉煌纪录，而在连续四年手握前十顺位选秀权后，他们终于有望结束长达六年的季后赛荒。圣安东尼奥这群年轻才俊的健康状况和成长——尤其是连续两届NBA年度最佳新秀得主维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)——对于引领这支焕然一新的球队至关重要。如今，球队阵容中不仅有另一位年度最佳新秀候选人、榜眼秀迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，还加入了卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 和凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 等经验丰富的老将。
但我们同样不能忽视在票选中紧随马刺的亚特兰大老鹰队，以及费城76人队。就在五年前，76人队和老鹰队还在东部半决赛中激烈厮杀，特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 和乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 在抢七大战中分别砍下39分和37分。费城的前景在很大程度上取决于老将球星恩比德和保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 的健康状况，以及泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 的持续进步。与此同时，老鹰队则打造了一个可能极具变革性的休赛期，他们引进了克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯和卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard) 等得分手来辅助特雷·杨，此外还补充了防守悍将尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)。
年轻而充满饥饿感的奥兰多魔术队也潜伏于此，他们期待自2009-10赛季以来首次突破季后赛首轮。– 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)
球队陷入动荡：哪支球队本赛季将遭遇滑坡？
第一名：密尔沃基雄鹿： 41分
第二名：洛杉矶湖人： 32分
并列第三名：波士顿凯尔特人/菲尼克斯太阳： 28分
第四名：费城76人： 25分
第五名：印第安纳步行者： 19分
雄鹿队之所以在这份榜单上高居榜首，是因为当他们的争冠窗口期被普遍认为即将关闭时，球队的未来充满了日益增长的不确定性。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 仍是世界顶级球员之一。然而，即便在密尔沃基史无前例地在自由球员市场签下迈尔斯·特纳之后，阿德托昆博与其他队友之间的天赋差距依然惊人。为了签下特纳，雄鹿队裁掉了后卫达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)，并使用延伸条款将其超过1.1亿美元的剩余合同分摊到未来五年支付，这为他们寻求短期补强提供了未来的灵活性——此举被竞争对手球队视为雄鹿队为了抓住阿德托昆博巅峰期尾巴而采取的绝望之举。
雄鹿队本赛季的成功计划将严重依赖于阿德托昆博。这位两届MVP得主此前曾肩负过重任，但要在没有明确二当家的情况下将这套阵容带入争冠行列，或许需要他付出职业生涯中最艰巨的努力。密尔沃基上赛季开局2胜8负，随后设法强势反弹并打入季后赛，但最终止步首轮。如果本赛季再次遭遇慢热开局，雄鹿队是否还有耐心和信心上演逆袭？– 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)
下一位请求交易的超级巨星将会是……？
第一名：锡安·威廉姆森： 10票
第二名：扬尼斯·阿德托昆博： 7票
第三名：勒布朗·詹姆斯： 6票
第四名：贾·莫兰特： 1票
第五名：特雷·杨： 1票
(注：此项投票每票计1分。)
今年夏天，似乎没有哪种情况像上赛季吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 与迈阿密热火队之间紧张的关系那样，注定会在赛季中期分道扬镳。
鹈鹕队管理层的变动——由乔·杜马斯 (Joe Dumars) 取代大卫·格里芬 (David Griffin) 成为主要决策者——可能延长了威廉姆森在球队的停留时间。如果锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 能在赛季初打出强势表现，并避开困扰其职业生涯的伤病问题，那么他寻求一个新的开始，而非继续留在一支看似停滞不前的球队，是完全有可能的。自从勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 通过其经纪人里奇·保罗 (Rich Paul) 在执行本赛季5260万美元的球员选项后试图给湖人管理层施压以来，情况就一直毫无动静。这位联盟历史得分王和他的团队都明白，一笔涉及他的交易——考虑到他的年龄、高昂的薪水以及合同中赋予他的交易否决权——将会是何等复杂。
多年来，关于阿德托昆博要求离开密尔沃基的猜测甚嚣尘上。如果他在夏天都没有迈出这决绝的一步，那么在赛季中期发生的可能性就更小了。– 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)
东部哪位超级巨星的伤病影响最大？
第一名：杰森·塔图姆： 20票
第二名：泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿： 5票
第三名：乔尔·恩比德： 1票
(注：此项投票每票计1分。)
杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的跟腱伤势，或许促使凯尔特人队采取了更为激进的球员抛售和开支削减策略，而他们本就已面临着拆散核心阵容、削减薪资以避免触发第二土豪线的压力。
波士顿无疑实现了这一目标，他们交易了中锋克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯和后卫朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)，同时还失去了替补中锋卢克·科内特，并很可能将与深受球迷爱戴的内线艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford) 分道扬镳，霍福德目前仍是自由球员。
诚然，凯尔特人队的侧翼仍有杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)，新援安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons) 也无疑是一名出色的得分手。然而，联盟中没有哪支球队在这个休赛期比凯尔特人损失了更多的顶级技术和天赋。球队的阵容深度，尤其是在内线，已不再是冠军级别。很明显，波士顿正将目光投向下个赛季，期待在塔图姆回归后，重新开启他们的争冠窗口。– 克里斯·赫林 (Chris Herring)
我们会迎来连续第八个赛季的不同冠军吗？
- 会： 15票
- 不会： 11票
(注：此项投票每票计1分。)
本月早些时候，我曾探讨过这个关于联盟实力均衡的话题，以及在一个大部分历史都由王朝球队构建的联盟中，不再出现王朝是否对NBA有利。
不难理解为何投票结果会倾向于这一趋势将继续。今年春天，雷霆队成为NBA连续第七支新科总冠军——而凯尔特人队则成为连续第六支未能闯过分区半决赛的卫冕冠军。
然而，这次投票可能过于依赖过去的经验，而没有仔细审视雷霆队自身的情况。俄克拉荷马城雷霆队是过去50年中赢得总冠军第二年轻的球队，仅次于1977年的波特兰开拓者队。本赛季，他们所有球员悉数回归，这让我们有充分的理由相信，他们在2025-26赛季会变得更强。联盟内部人士纷纷表示，他们会选择雷霆队卫冕冠军，并且认为不存在任何有说服力的反对理由。
但这并不能保证俄克ла荷馬城就一定能成功卫冕。上个赛季，克利夫兰骑士队和波士顿凯尔特人队曾被普遍看好在东部决赛会师，但最终两队都未能走到那一步。雷霆队在第二轮对阵丹佛掘金队和总决赛对阵印第安纳步行者队的系列赛中都曾命悬一线。联盟日益激烈的竞争环境，加上对俄克拉荷马城统治力持久性的一些疑问，让我们的专家团得出结论：群雄逐鹿将是本赛季NBA的主旋律。– 蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)
哪支球队最有可能在交易截止日前有大动作？
第一名：金州勇士： 7票
第二名：洛杉矶湖人： 5票
并列第三名：克利夫兰骑士/新奥尔良鹈鹕： 3票
第四名：费城76人： 2票
第五名：孟菲斯灰熊： 1票
(注：此项投票每票计1分。)
勇士队在这份榜单上领跑，因为他们整个休赛期的行为基本上都在暗示着渴望在交易截止日前有所行动。他们为受限制自由球员乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 开出的两年4500万美元合同，其目的就是为了让他达到一个方便在明年一月份进行交易的薪资水平。正在进入卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 时代的湖人队，则保留了一些首轮签作为交易添头，随着勒布朗·詹姆斯的到期合同 looming，这些筹码可以用来完成交易。至于骑士队，失望和绝望可能会催生变动。如果他们担心自己高价值的核心四人组在季后赛中再次无功而返，他们可能会决定交易其中一人来改变阵容组合。– 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)
点击查看原文：NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Turnarounds, turbulent teams and the biggest questions
NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Turnarounds, turbulent teams and the biggest questions
The 2025-26 NBA season is less than two months away, and excitement is already building for what should be another season full of shake-ups.
As the league prepares for the ripple effect of stars like Kevin Durant, Myles Turner and Kristaps Porzingis on new squads, other teams like the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are preparing for a season without their stars. Could these new faces in new places and injuries make way for an unexpected NBA champion?
ESPN’s Summer Forecast panel made up of our NBA insiders, answers the NBA’s biggest questions heading into the 2025-26 season, including which team is expected to make a turnaround, which stars are likely to make an exit from their current teams and if we’ll have a new team crowned champion for the eighth straight season. (Here’s the math: A first-place vote received five points, a second-place vote three points and a third-place vote one.)
Here are the results:
Note: Our 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast continues Tuesday with predictions for all the major awards.
Team Turnaround: Which teams will make a major leap?
**T1. San Antonio Spurs/**Atlanta Hawks: 55 points
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 49 points
3. Orlando Magic: 48 points
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 6 points
5. Houston Rockets: 5 points
The Spurs produced a streak of 22 consecutive postseason appearances from 1997-98 to 2018-19 and could finally be poised to end their six-year drought after drafting in the top 10 for four straight years. The health and development of San Antonio’s young talent – especially back-to-back NBA Rookie of the Year winners Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle – will be crucial in leading a revamped roster that now features another Rookie of the Year candidate in No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, along with veteran additions such as Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk.
But don’t sleep on the Atlanta Hawks, which finished just behind the Spurs in the poll, or the Philadelphia 76ers. Just five years ago, the 76ers and Hawks battled it out in the Eastern Conference semifinals with Trae Young and Joel Embiid dropping 39 and 37 points, respectively, in Game 7. Philadelphia’s prospects hinge largely on the health of veteran stars Embiid and Paul George, as well as continued growth from Tyrese Maxey. The Hawks, meanwhile, pieced together a potentially transformative offseason by adding scorers such as Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard to complement Young, in addition to a reliable defender in Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
The young and hungry Orlando Magic lurk here as well, as they look to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2009-10. – Michael C. Wright
Team Turmoil: Which team will take a tumble this season?
1. Milwaukee Bucks: 41 points
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 32 points
T3. Boston Celtics/Phoenix Suns: 28 points
4. Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points
5. Indiana Pacers: 19 points
The Bucks top this list because of the mounting uncertainty surrounding the franchise at the perceived end of its contention window. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still one of the best players in the world. Still, the talent gap between him and the rest of the roster is striking, even after Milwaukee made an unprecedented move to sign Myles Turner in free agency. To sign Turner, the Bucks waived guard Damian Lillard and stretched the more than $110 million remaining on his contract over the next five years, giving them future flexibility to find a short-term fix – a sign seen by rival teams as an act of desperation by the Bucks to cling to the last of Antetokounmpo’s prime.
The Bucks’ plan for success this season will be to lean heavily on Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP has shouldered massive tasks before, but getting this roster into contention without a clear second star will require, perhaps, his most herculean effort. Milwaukee began last season 2-8, then found a way to rally and make the playoffs before exiting in the first round. Will the Bucks have the patience and confidence to bounce back if they get off to a slow start again this season? – Jamal Collier
The next superstar to request a trade will be …?
1. Zion Williamson: 10 votes
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 7 votes
3. LeBron James: 6 votes
4. Ja Morant: 1 vote
5. Trae Young: 1 vote
(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)
There isn’t a situation simmering this summer that seems as destined for midseason divorce as Jimmy Butler’s strained marriage with the Miami Heat was last season.
Williamson’s stay in New Orleans might have been extended by the Pelicans’ front office change, with Joe Dumars replacing David Griffin as the primary decision-maker. If Williamson can have a strong start to the season – and avoid the injury bug that has plagued his career – it’s feasible that he could seek a fresh start instead of remaining with a New Orleans franchise that seems stuck in neutral. It has been radio silent since James, via his agent Rich Paul, attempted to rattle the Lakers’ cages immediately after exercising his $52.6 million player option for this season. The all-time leading scorer and his camp understand just how complicated a trade involving him – at his age, making that much money, with the contractual right to veto any deal – would be.
Speculation has swirled around Antetokounmpo asking out of Milwaukee for several years. If he didn’t take that drastic step in the summer, it’s unlikely to happen midseason. – Tim MacMahon
Which superstar injury will have the biggest impact in the East?
1. Jayson Tatum: 20 votes
2. Tyrese Haliburton: 5 votes
3. Joel Embiid: 1 vote
(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)
Tatum’s Achilles injury was a catalyst for perhaps an even more aggressive selloff and spending cut for the Celtics, already being forced to break up their core and slash their payroll to avoid the second apron.
Boston certainly achieved that aim, trading both center Kristaps Porzingis and guard Jrue Holiday. It also lost backup center Luke Kornet and is likely parting ways with beloved big man Al Horford, who remains a free agent for now.
Yes, the Celtics still have Jaylen Brown and Derrick White on the wings, and newcomer Anfernee Simons is certainly a capable scorer. Still, no team in the association lost more top-end skill and talent than the Celtics this offseason. The team’s depth is no longer championship caliber, particularly in the post, and it’s clear Boston is looking to next season to reopen its title window next season, once Tatum can return to the lineup. – Chris Herring
Will we get a different champion for the eighth straight season?
- Yes: 15
- No: 11
(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)
Earlier this month, I touched on this very topic of parity, and whether or not it is good for the NBA to no longer have dynasties after being a league that has been built on them for most of its history.
It’s understandable why voting would be slanted toward that trend continuing. The Thunder became the NBA’s seventh consecutive new champion this spring – and the Celtics became the sixth consecutive defending champion to not make it past the conference semifinals.
However, the voting may be too reflexive, looking into the past, rather than examining the Thunder’s case. Oklahoma City was the second-youngest team to win a title in the past 50 years, behind the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers. This season, it has all of its players back and makes a strong case to believe it will be even stronger in 2025-26. Those around the league have said they’d pick the Thunder to repeat as champs, and don’t see a credible argument against them.
That does nothing to guarantee that Oklahoma City will actually repeat. Last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics were expected to square off in the Eastern Conference finals but neither made it there. The Thunder were on the ropes in the second round against the Denver Nuggets and in the Finals against the Indiana Pacers. The inevitable growing competitiveness of the league, plus some questions about OKC’s staying power, led our panel to conclude parity will reign over the NBA this season. – Tim Bontemps
Which team is most likely to make a big move before the trade deadline?
1. Golden State Warriors: 7 votes
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 5 votes
**T3. Cleveland Cavaliers/**New Orleans Pelicans: 3 votes
4. Philadelphia 76ers: 2 votes
5. Memphis Grizzlies: 1 vote
(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)
The Warriors lead this list because they’ve essentially spent the offseason signaling a desire for deadline movement. Their two-year, $45 million contract offer to restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga was designed to get him on a salary number they can flip come January. The Lakers, who are transitioning into the Luka Doncic era, have maintained a few first-round sweeteners that can be used to get a deal done as LeBron James’ expiring contract looms. For the Cavaliers’ situation, disappointment and desperation can breed movement. If they fear their high-value core four won’t get it done in the playoffs again, they may decide to flip one and change up the mix. – Anthony Slater
By ESPN staff | ESPN, via ESPN