By Greg Luca, Staff Writer | San Antonio Express-News (SAEN), 2026-04-14 15:28:44
2026年4月12日（周日），在圣安东尼奥弗罗斯特银行中心球馆（Frost Bank Center），圣安东尼奥马刺队后卫迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) (2) 在对阵丹佛掘金队的常规赛收官战第三节中起跳投篮。马刺队最终以118-128不敌掘金队。
在经历了长达六年的季后赛荒后，圣安东尼奥马刺队将于本周末重返季后赛舞台。外界对他们寄予了极高的期望，至少有一位ESPN分析师预测他们将夺冠。
ESPN作家扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 对季后赛的每一轮系列赛进行了预测，他认为总决赛将在马刺队与波士顿凯尔特人队之间展开，最终由圣安东尼奥球星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 捧起拉里·奥布莱恩冠军奖杯，并开启“NBA的文班时代”。
根据ESPN的篮球实力指数（BPI），预测结果显示菲尼克斯太阳队将在附加赛中击败波特兰开拓者队，锁定7号种子席位，从而在首轮对阵2号种子马刺队。尽管太阳队本赛季对阵圣安东尼奥取得了2胜1负（输掉的那场仅输1分）的战绩，但ESPN预测马刺队将横扫晋级。
3号种子丹佛掘金队和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 在对阵圣安东尼奥时也取得过一些成功，但该文章认为，凭借出色的防守实力和主场优势，马刺队将在七场四胜制的系列赛中占据上风。
在西部决赛中，圣安东尼奥将迎来与1号种子俄克拉荷马城雷霆队备受瞩目的对决。虽然马刺队在本赛季的五次交手中赢下了四场，但卫冕冠军雷霆队拥有丰富的季后赛经验以及谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的关键得分能力。不过，考虑到文班亚马在对阵俄克拉荷马城时的出色表现，以及他在季后赛环境下有望获得更多出场时间，ESPN预测圣安东尼奥将通过六场大战胜出。
NBA总决赛将上演与2号种子波士顿凯尔特人队的巅峰对决，后者预计将在东部决赛中激战六场淘汰头号种子底特律活塞队。马刺队在本赛季常规赛两次对阵波士顿的比赛中全部取胜。ESPN预测，马刺队在赛季末段提升的三分球命中率将成为系列赛的关键，帮助他们在六场内夺冠，这也是圣安东尼奥自2014年以来首次问鼎总冠军。
圣安东尼奥在本赛季结束时的ESPN篮球实力指数为9.1，排名联盟第二，仅次于俄克拉荷马城（11.2）。
雷霆队仍被视为夺冠的最大热门，在大多数博彩公司的赔率在+110到+130之间。马刺队的夺冠赔率位列第二，赔率低至+425，这意味着100美元的投注可获得425美元的奖金。
马刺队的季后赛揭幕战将于周日晚上8点在弗罗斯特银行中心球馆开打。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Why ESPN predicts Spurs to win NBA title
Why ESPN predicts Spurs to win NBA title
San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper (2) goes up for a shot during the third quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Sunday, April 12, 2026. The Spurs lost 128-118 to the Nuggets in their final regular-season game.
Set to return to the NBA playoffs this weekend after a six-year drought, the San Antonio Spurs are facing sky-high expectations, with at least one ESPN analyst predicting a championship.
Projecting every series through the NBA playoffs, ESPN writer Zach Kram landed on a Finals series between the Spurs and the Boston Celtics, with San Antonio star Victor Wembanyama lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy and ushering in “the NBA’s Wemby Era.”
Using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the projection has the Phoenix Suns beating the Portland Trailblazers in the play-in tournament to grab the No. 7 seed, drawing a matchup against the No. 2 seed Spurs. Though Phoenix holds a pair of wins and a one-point loss against San Antonio this season, ESPN predicts the Spurs to roll to a sweep.
The No. 3 seed Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic have also enjoyed some success against San Antonio, but the article gives the Spurs the edge in a seven-game series because of San Antonio’s defensive prowess and home-court advantage.
In the Western Conference finals, San Antonio draws a much-anticipated matchup against the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder. While the Spurs won four of five meetings this season, the defending champion Thunder boast playoff experience and the clutch scoring of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But citing Victor Wembanyama’s success against Oklahoma City and the expectation he could play more minutes in a playoff environment, ESPN predicts San Antonio to win a six-game series.
The NBA Finals presents a matchup against the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics, who are projected to outlast top-seeded Detroit in a six-game Eastern Conference finals series. San Antonio claimed both previous meetings against Boston this season, and ESPN predicts that the Spurs’ improved 3-point shooting late in the year will be the difference in a six-game series win, allowing San Antonio to claim the title for the first time since 2014.
San Antonio finished this season second in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index with a mark of 9.1, trailing only Oklahoma City at 11.2.
The Thunder are still regarded as the betting favorite to win the title, sitting in the range of +110 to +130 in most books. The Spurs have the second-best odds with listings as low as +425, meaning a $100 bet would win $425.
San Antonio’s playoff opener is 8 p.m. Sunday at the Frost Bank Center.
By Greg Luca, Staff Writer, via San Antonio Express-News