By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-03-11 00:15:00
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
终于到了分析卢卡在洛杉矶的适应度的时候了。
终于到了讨论卢卡和湖人的时候了。
我等了这么久，是为了有更大的样本量，也是为了让这笔交易完全沉淀下来——但它并没有，也永远不会。
所以，让我们继续榨取（尼科，我喝这个健康吗？）这笔史上最疯狂的交易，看看湖人在西部的地位如何。
看，尼科！卢卡正在为一支精英防守球队做出贡献！
虽然引进卢卡本应加速湖人的进攻，但实际上是球队的防守推动了他们最近的成功。自1月15日开始的20胜5负的强势表现以来，湖人队的防守效率高居联盟第一（108.8），但最令人印象深刻的是，安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)上次身披紫金战袍还是在1月28日，而湖人仍然保持着他们的头把交椅。事实上，自那以后，湖人的防守效率值甚至更高，达到了108.7，遥遥领先全联盟——克利夫兰在这段时间内以“仅仅”110.3位居第二。
湖人队的防守原则非常简单，但他们执行得近乎完美。首先，湖人不遗余力地阻止对手在他们偏好的位置拿球。这在他们最近对阵丹佛的比赛中最为明显，尼古拉·约基奇只尝试了7次投篮。湖人在每一次机会中都顶防着“大块头”，即使这样做会以牺牲其他球员的空位机会为代价。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
至关重要的是，湖人队在选择放空谁方面非常挑剔。之前的片段就是一个明显的例子，他们公然盯着拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)的眼睛，挑衅他打出一次“威斯布里克”，后来他们对阿隆·戈登也做了同样的事情。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
虽然戈登投进了那个球，但这里的过程比结果更重要。即使这些糟糕的射手确实投进了一些球，它仍然会让球队失去节奏，因为这不是他们的基本进攻方式。结果呢？戈登和拉塞尔三分球14投7中，但丹佛输了23分。
湖人队防守的另一个原则是阻止对手突破到中路。湖人总是调整他们的站位，以便将对方球员引导到边线，尤其是在挡拆中。在下面的视频中，加布·文森特冻结了掩护，这样詹姆斯·哈登就别无选择，只能向底线突破，贾克森·海斯在那里提供帮助。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
最重要的是，湖人队作为一个整体进行防守，他们的沟通始终到位。在填补空隙和提供帮助方面，没有哪支球队比他们做得更好，尤其是在对手创造优势时。在最近的一次交锋中，当科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)在对阵道尔顿·克奈克特(Dalton Knecht)时获得了有利的对位时，他刚一突破这位新秀，就被另外两名湖人球员包夹了。泰伦斯·曼(Terrence Mann)因其糟糕的进攻技巧而被迅速解雇并非巧合，这回到了湖人忽略糟糕的创造者/射手的原则。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
这也适用于保护篮筐。海斯不是鲁迪·戈贝尔，但湖人队通过在油漆区双人或三人包夹对方内线来弥补这一点，而且他们通常能够摆脱困境，因为大多数中锋都不习惯在这种情况传球。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
简而言之，湖人队的防守表现优于他们的各个部分之和，这归功于出色的沟通和精准的执行。话虽如此，湖人队的防守统治力不可能以这种程度持续下去。自从1月28日的截止日期以来，对手的三分球命中率仅为31.4%——比下一个最低的球队低1.5%，为32.9%。虽然湖人队的防守理应受到赞扬，但历史表明，球队对对手的跳投，尤其是远距离跳投，没有太大的控制力。
即使湖人队放任糟糕的射手投三分，但在两个月的时间里，让对手的三分球命中率保持在31%更多的是与82场比赛的过山车性质有关，而不是其他任何因素，尤其是考虑到在过去三年里，没有球队在一个赛季中“将”对手的三分球命中率控制在34%以下。此外，精英天赋仍然胜过一切，湖人队缺乏这种防守球员的劣势迟早会赶上他们，无论他们的比赛计划多么巧妙。
等等，进攻呢？
在进攻端，湖人在得到卢卡之后反而出现了令人惊讶的下滑：交易前他们的进攻效率为115.9（联盟第9），但从那以后，他们的平均进攻效率只有114.8（这段时间排名第16）。这主要是由于卢卡自己的效率低下造成的，自从他穿上紫金战袍以来，他的投篮命中率只有41.1%，三分球命中率只有32.4%。
显然，这种情况不会继续下去。这位奇才球员仍在适应，并且已经显示出他旧状态的迹象：在作为湖人球员的前三场比赛中，他没有一场得分超过20分，但在过去的7场比赛中，他有4场得分达到30分或以上。卢卡和进攻都会好起来的，所以最重要的是看看他是如何改变湖人队的进攻的。
有几件事立刻显现出来。首先，湖人队已经成为一支更加以球星为中心的球队，围绕着两颗二元恒星。在全明星赛前，湖人队的场均传球数排名联盟第7，为295.8次，但自那以后，他们排名第22，平均传球数只有275.3次。
此外，湖人队的三分球尝试次数也猛增。在卢卡加盟后，湖人队高达44.5%的投篮都来自三分线外，由于乔·马祖拉有多么疯狂，所以这一比例“仅”排名第二。在卢卡到来之前，湖人队只有35.9%的投篮是三分球，排名联盟第24位。此外，自从卢卡掌舵以来，这些尝试中只有34.1%（第22位）命中——这是导致他们平庸进攻的另一个因素——一旦他们的运气好转，进攻的闸门将会打开。
产生更多的三分球并不是卢卡对湖人队产生的唯一影响。不出所料，他还为湖人队的内线球员提供了轻松的空接机会，自从“大佬”加盟以来，球队在篮筐4英尺范围内的投篮命中率高达71.1%。这实际上略低于他们在交易前转换的72.4%，但请记住：湖人队从拥有可以说是有史以来最伟大的空接接球手安东尼·戴维斯变成了，嗯，贾克森·海斯。仍然能够取得如此高的命中率令人印象深刻，也证明了卢卡的才华。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
然而，令人失望的是，卢卡和勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)之间的二人配合不足。当其中一人持球时，另一人通常只是静止地站在角落里，没有太多的移动。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
如果不是这样，那么他们会站在球场两侧等待传球，而不会执行任何真正的战术。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
即便如此，卢卡的加盟还是重振了勒布朗。即使“皇帝”的触球次数保持相似，他现在也可以更多地扮演第二组织者的角色，而不是需要不断地执行挡拆和运行战术的角色。因此，勒布朗能够将他的精力留到关键时刻，并更加专注于防守，在那里他再次打出了精英水平。
总的来说，当他们的超凡球星同时在场时，湖人队的净效率值为+7.6，而单单卢卡的净效率值甚至更高，为+11.7——尽管这两个数字都因我们之前提到的不可持续的糟糕对手投篮命中率而有所提高。
话虽如此，我不禁想到，如果卢卡和勒布朗能够更多地相互配合，这支湖人队会变得多么危险。我的意思是，你能想象卢卡-勒布朗挡拆会多么强大吗？阻止一个涉及到两位有史以来最伟大的篮球思想家的行动是不可能的，他们都因为他们的体型、力量和智慧而成为行走的错位点。
不幸的是，考虑到勒布朗即将开始他在季后赛前的年度低温休养，我们需要等几周才能看到这种情况是否会实现。
那么，这支湖人队的上限是什么？
好吧，有好消息也有坏消息。从积极的一面来看，一旦卢卡的效率接近他的职业生涯水平，并且球队更加适应他的风格，湖人队的进攻不可避免地会得到改善。然而，湖人队的防守也会经历类似的倒退，但方向相反。球员们和他们的播客教练值得称赞，他们实施并执行了一个有效的方案，但历史告诉我们，对方球队不会继续投出如此糟糕的三分球。
尽管如此，即使一切恢复正常，这支湖人队在攻防两端也应该打出前10的水平。这是一个可靠的竞争者的标志，但还没有达到像俄克拉荷马城、克利夫兰或波士顿那样的水平。最终，湖人队属于第二梯队的竞争者，与丹佛等球队并列，看到他们在季后赛中走得很远也就不足为奇了。
本周，请查看Jeje关于斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)最近表现的文章！这位新秀最近表现出色，Jeje出色地分解了这一切。
感谢阅读！
所有统计数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: How far can Luka and the Lakers go?
Around the NBA: How far can Luka and the Lakers go?
It’s finally time to analyze Luka’s fit in La La Land.
It’s finally time to talk about Luka and the Lakers.
I waited this long so that there would be a bigger sample to work with, but also to let the trade fully sink in — which it hasn’t, and never will.
So, let’s continue milking (is that healthy for me to drink, Nico?) the craziest trade ever and see where LA stands in the West’s hierarchy.
Look, Nico! Luka’s contributing to an elite defensive team!
While the addition of Luka was supposed to turbocharge LA’s offense, it’s actually the team’s defense that’s fuelled their recent success. The Lakers have the league’s best defensive rating since the start of their 20-5 stretch on January 15th (108.8), but the most impressive part is that AD last suited up for the gold and purple on January 28th, and LA’s still maintained their number one spot. In fact, since that latter date, the Lakers have had an even better DRTG of 108.7, which is first league-wide by a mile — Cleveland is second over that span at “just” 110.3.
LA’s defensive principles are very simple, but they execute them to near perfection. First, the Lakers sell out to keep the opponent from getting the ball in their preferred spots. This was most evident in their recent game against Denver when Nikola Jokic attempted just seven shots total. LA fronted Big Chungus every opportunity they had, even if it came at the expense of allowing other players to get open shots.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
Crucially, the Lakers are very selective as to who they choose to leave open. The previous clip is an egregious example of them blatantly staring Russ in the eye and daring him to lay down a Westbrick, and they did it again later with Aaron Gordon.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
Although Gordon made that shot, the process here is more important than the results. Even if these poor shooters do knock down a few looks, it still gets the team out of rhythm since that’s not their base offense. The result? Gordon and Russ went 7-14 from three but Denver lost by 23 points.
Another tenet of LA’s defense is preventing opponents from getting middle penetration. The Lakers always angle their stance so that opposing players are guided toward the sidelines, especially when put in the pick-and-roll. In the play below, Gabe Vincent ices the screen so James Harden has no choice but to drive toward the baseline, where Jaxson Hayes is there to help.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
Most importantly, LA plays defense as a unit and their communication is always on point. There isn’t a better team in the league at shooting the gap and providing help, especially when the opposition creates an advantage. When Kawhi Leonard got a favorable matchup against Dalton Knecht in a recent meeting, he was immediately swarmed by two more Lakers as soon as he drove by the rookie. It’s not a coincidence that Terrence Mann was promptly dismissed due to his poor offensive skills, which goes back to LA’s principle of ignoring bad creators/shooters.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
This applies to protecting the rim as well. Hayes is no Rudy Gobert, but LA makes up for it by double and triple-teaming opposing bigs in the paint, and they usually get away with it since most centers aren’t comfortable passing out of such situations.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 9, 2025
In short, the Lakers’ defense is performing better than the sum of their parts due to great communication and clinical execution. With that said, there’s no way that LA’s defensive dominance continues to this extent. Since that January 28th cutoff, opponents have been shooting a meager 31.4% from three — 1.5% worse than the next lowest team at 32.9%. And while the Lakers’ defense should rightfully be given plaudits, history shows that teams don’t have much control over opponent jumpshots, especially from distance.
Even with LA conceding threes against poor shooters, having opponents convert 31% from deep over a two month span has more to do with the rollercoaster nature of an 82-game campaign than anything else, especially considering that no team has “held” opponent three-point shooting under 34% in a season over the past three years. Moreover, elite talent still trumps all, and LA’s lack of such defensive players will catch up to them at some point, regardless of how ingenious their game plans are.
Wait, what about the offense?
Offensively, the Lakers have seen a surprising drop-off after acquiring Luka: they had a 115.9 offensive rating before the trade (9th), and since then, they’ve only averaged 114.8 (16th during that short span). This has largely been caused by Luka’s own inefficiency, as he’s shooting just 41.1% from the field and 32.4% from three since donning the purple and gold.
Obviously, that won’t continue. The wunderkind is still getting acclimated and has already shown signs of his old self: he’s scored 30 or more points in 4 of the past 7 games after not cracking 20 in his first three games as a Laker. Luka and the offense will be fine, so what’s most important is seeing how he’s changed LA’s attack.
A few things stand out right off the bat. First, the Lakers have become a much more heliocentric team that surrounds two binary stars. Pre All-Star break, LA ranked 7th league-wide in passes per game at 295.8, but since then, they’ve been 22nd, with just 275.3 passes made on average.
Moreover, the Lakers’ three-point attempts have skyrocketed. With Luka in town, a staggering 44.5% of LA’s shots have come from deep, which “only” ranks second during that span because of how psychopathic Joe Mazzulla is. Before Luka’s arrival, the Lakers only attempted 35.9% of their shots as threes, ranking 24th league-wide. Additionally, only 34.1% (22nd) of those attempts have gone in with Luka at the helm — another factor causing their mediocre offense — and once their fortunes turn, the floodgates will open offensively.
Generating more threes isn’t the only impact Luka’s had on the Lakers. Unsurprisingly, he’s also giving LA’s bigs easy lobs to finish, and the team’s made a robust 71.1% of their shots within 4 feet of the basket since the Don’s been in town. That’s actually slightly lower than the 72.4% they were converting before the trade, but remember: the Lakers went from having arguably the greatest lob catcher ever in Anthony Davis to, umm, Jaxson Hayes. To still make such a high percentage is impressive and a testament to Luka’s genius.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
What’s disappointing, though, has been the lack of a two-man game between Luka and LeBron. When one has the ball, the other is often just standing stationary in the corner without much movement.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
If that’s not the case, then they’ll stand on opposite sides of the slot awaiting a pass, without running any real plays.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 10, 2025
Even so, Luka’s addition has reinvigorated LeBron. Even though the King’s touches have remained similar, he can now be more of a secondary playmaker rather than one who needs to constantly operate pick and rolls and run actions. As a result, LeBron has been able to reserve his energy for clutch situations and focus more on defense, where he’s back playing at an elite level.
Overall, the Lakers have a +7.6 net rating when their transcendent stars share the court, and Luka alone puts up even better numbers, at +11.7 — although both figures are elevated by the unsustainably bad opponent shooting that we covered previously.
With that said, I can’t help but think how much more dangerous this LA team could be if Luka and LeBron played off of each other more. I mean, can you imagine how potent a Luka-LeBron pick and roll could be? It would be impossible to stop an action involving two of the greatest basketball minds of all time, who are both walking mismatches due to their size, strength, and smarts.
Unfortunately, we’ll need to wait a few weeks to see if that’ll come to fruition given that LeGroin’s about to take his annual cryo chamber leave before the playoffs start.
So, what’s the ceiling for this Lakers squad?
Well, there are good news and bad news. On the positive side, the Lakers will inevitably improve offensively once Luka’s efficiency creeps closer to his career norms and the team becomes more acclimated with his style. However, LA’s defense will experience a similar regression, but in the opposite direction. The players and their podcasting coach deserve tons of credit for implementing and executing a scheme that works, but history tells us that opposing teams won’t continue shooting so poorly from three.
Still, even when things normalize, this Lakers team should realistically play at a top-10 level on both ends of the court. That’s the trademark of a solid contender, but not on the level of an OKC, Cleveland, or Boston. Ultimately, LA belongs in the second tier of contenders along the likes of a Denver, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go on a long playoff run.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on Stephon Castle’s recent play! The rook’s turned it up lately, and Jeje does a great job of breaking it all down.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock