By The Athletic NBA Staff / The Athletic, 2026-09-10 18:00:28
到2026年NBA季后赛开打时，对许多人来说，通往西部之巅的道路必将经过圣安东尼奥和俄克拉荷马城，这几乎已成定局。
当马刺和雷霆在西部决赛中打完那场史诗般的七场大战——最终马刺在客场爆冷击败卫冕冠军——人们感觉那轮系列赛只是这两支球队在未来可预见的一段时间内共同统治西部的开端。
圣安东尼奥和俄克拉荷马城不仅坐拥大量年轻天才，还都拥有年轻有为、深受信任的主教练。两队手中还握有大量选秀权，可以在必要时随时做出其他运作。
除了这两强之外，西部还有四支球队拥有超级巨星天赋、过硬的季后赛履历以及立即冲击最高水平的明确决心：洛杉矶湖人、明尼苏达森林狼、丹佛掘金和休斯顿火箭。纸面上看，这四支球队都具备争夺总冠军的实力——但在一些人看来，他们距离西部的顶尖强队仍有很长的路要走。
这四支球队需要做些什么才能改变这一格局？为了深入剖析各队在新赛季开始前的处境，我们邀请了以下几位NBA记者：威尔·吉洛里（Will Guillory）负责火箭，劳·默里（Law Murray）负责湖人，克里斯蒂安·克拉克（Christian Clark）负责掘金，乔恩·克劳钦斯基（Jon Krawczynski）负责森林狼。
你的球队被视为有望跻身马刺/雷霆级别强队之列的最大理由是什么？
默里（湖人）： 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)，现任得分王。他不会像两个赛季前那样被交易走，而湖人也希望那些毁掉他春季征程的伤病能够成为过去。三个赛季前，东契奇曾率领五号种子的达拉斯独行侠闯过西部季后赛的重重火海。
如今的这支湖人更加按照东契奇的形象打造：用新合同留下了他钦点的搭档（奥斯汀·里夫斯），引进了理想的护框者（沃克·凯斯勒），而且再也不用围绕勒布朗·詹姆斯来规划阵容了。此外，湖人本赛季与雷霆和马刺各只交手三次（还不包括NBA杯小组赛结束后追加的两场对决），这也算是个利好。
克拉克（掘金）： 只要保持健康，掘金就拥有NBA最出色的首发五人组之一。上赛季，贾马尔·默里、克里斯蒂安·布劳恩、卡梅隆·约翰逊、阿隆·戈登和尼古拉·约基奇组成的这套阵容横扫对手，每百回合净胜对手13.5分。
问题在于，由于伤病，我们没能经常看到这套阵容出战。这五人整个赛季只在23场比赛中共同出场了360分钟。戈登缺席了超过半个赛季，主要是因为右腿筋的顽疾，布劳恩则因左脚踝严重扭伤只打了44场比赛。掘金需要这两名球员打出反弹赛季。布劳恩方面我倒不太担心，他过去一直非常耐战，而且年仅25岁，身体损耗不大。我更担心的是戈登，他已经30岁，过去两个赛季总共只打了87场比赛。
吉洛里（火箭）： 只要全员健康，火箭拥有足以在联盟中欺负任何对手的身高、力量和全面性。上赛季，尽管史蒂文·亚当斯只打了32场比赛，休斯顿的防守效率仍排名联盟第6，篮板率高居第1。随着亚当斯回归，火箭可以重新启用他与阿尔佩伦·申京组成的双塔阵容——过去两个赛季，这套阵容在短时间出场时曾碾压对手。
此外，火箭还拥有联盟中最深厚的锋线储备之一：凯文·杜兰特、小贾巴里·史密斯、阿门·汤普森、塔里·伊森，以及新援马库斯·斯马特。火箭主教练伊梅·乌多卡将能够在全部48分钟里保持至少两名最佳防守阵容级别的外线球员在场。再加上从前交叉韧带撕裂中复出的弗雷德·范弗利特，以及进入第三个赛季的里德·谢泼德，火箭的前九人轮换在天赋和防守质量上将不输联盟任何球队。
克劳钦斯基（森林狼）： 纯粹的天赋。这支焕然一新的森林狼能否保持健康、所有拼图能否磨合到位，确实存在疑问。但单论从一号位到九号位的原始天赋，森林狼储备相当充足。
安东尼·爱德华兹和拉梅洛·鲍尔是联盟最顶级的进攻球员中的两位。鲁迪·戈贝尔和杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯则是联盟最顶级的防守球员中的两位。乔纳森·库明加运动能力出众，并且带着证明自己的决心而来。阿约·多苏穆、小特伦斯·香农、琼·贝兰热尔和博恩斯·海兰德则能为替补席提供充足的火力。
克里斯·芬奇需要做大量工作，打造一套能最大化发挥这支球队优势的进攻体系。但他手中可用的工具也着实不少。
帮助你的球队迈过圣安东尼奥和/或俄克拉荷马城的最大引援是什么？
默里： 最好得是凯斯勒。他们付出了选秀权和真金白银，才得到这位巅峰期尚在前方的球员。雷霆和马刺都是以突破为主的球队，当湖人那些防守能力堪忧的球员被过掉时，凯斯勒在篮下的威慑力将至关重要。
另一方面，面对这两支拥有顶级护框能力和额外培养型内线高度的球队，凯斯勒的终结能力和进攻篮板也将是关键。面对拥有切特·霍姆格伦和维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的球队，他必须打出非常高的水准。
克拉克： 按默认逻辑，应该是以老将底薪签下德玛尔·德罗赞一年合同这笔操作吧？毕竟也没有太多其他运作可供选择。我认为，德罗赞以单打为主的打法与约基奇偏好的传切流动体系能否兼容，确实存在合理的疑问，但总体而言，这对掘金来说仍是一笔不错的签约。
在NBA生涯前17个赛季一直担任首发的德罗赞，将转型进入替补阵容。掘金正需要有人能在替补阵容中自主创造投篮机会。我并不乐观地认为37岁的德罗赞能在对阵马刺或雷霆的季后赛系列赛中产生多大影响，但他依然是一位可靠的得分手。
吉洛里： 上赛季，对可靠控卫表现的迫切需求，可能是这四支球队中最显眼的短板。虽然汤普森在角色扩大后表现出色，谢泼德也随着赛季推进逐渐进步，但球队在关键时刻的屡屡崩盘，往往源于缺少一位能在紧要关头稳定军心、创造高质量回合的老将。
如今，不仅范弗利特在缺席整个2025-26赛季后回归，斯马特也加入了休斯顿——上赛季季后赛，他还身为湖人一员，在淘汰火箭的过程中扮演了关键角色。范弗利特和斯马特合计打过177场季后赛，他们深知压力之下该如何执行战术。
此外，纵观杜兰特的整个职业生涯，尽管他几乎能在任何环境下打出统治级表现，但当他身边有一位能为他分担持球创造压力的控卫时，他才能发挥出最佳水准。
克劳钦斯基： 鲍尔。上赛季季后赛，森林狼之所以在对阵圣安东尼奥时陷入苦战，是因为马刺可以肆无忌惮地对安东尼·爱德华兹进行包夹，而无需付出任何代价。爱德华兹刚一过半场，就有两名（有时甚至三名）马刺球员在等着他。而鲍尔正是针对这种策略的一人解药。
如果爱德华兹能把球高高传给鲍尔，他将立即形成四打三的优势，而这正是鲍尔大杀四方的领域。无论是快速出手三分，还是妙传空位射手，鲍尔都能为爱德华兹分担大量组织压力。这也能让爱德华兹有更多时间回到他最擅长的无球位置，攻击扑防球员并自主创造机会。
如果鲍尔能像上赛季提升夏洛特每一位队友下限那样影响森林狼的队友，那么明尼苏达就真的有机会了。
对阵圣安东尼奥/俄克拉荷马城时，你的球队最大的损失是什么？
默里： 勒布朗·詹姆斯显然是最大的损失。没有他在场上，湖人在位置身高方面变得更加平庸，更别提詹姆斯还是全联盟快攻得分最多的球员。上赛季湖人是联盟运动能力最差的球队之一，可即便如此，他们还有一位41岁的老将冲刺快攻轻松得分。
但这里也要提一句斯马特的离开。斯马特是一位顶级外线锁匠，他可以领防谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大或斯蒂芬·卡斯尔这样的对手，让湖人相应地调整防守部署。如今，湖人的轮换阵容中已不具备这种级别的持球点防守或防守全面性。（昆廷·格莱姆斯能胜任吗？）
克拉克： 佩顿·沃特森。掘金季后赛首轮不敌森林狼，让两队之间的运动能力差距暴露无遗。森林狼球员随心所欲地冲向篮下，并疯狂撕咬贾马尔·默里——后者投篮命中率仅为35.7%。在我看来，如果掘金想重返总决赛，他们显然需要用沃特森这样高大修长的运动型球员来围绕默里和约基奇建队，而沃特森在季后赛中甚至没能出场。
眼睁睁看着沃特森通过先签后换被送往克利夫兰骑士，却没有换回任何球员，这对掘金球迷来说无疑是沉重的打击。我们拭目以待，看掘金在明年二月之前如何处理他们手中骑士2031年的首轮签。但失去沃特森这样一位刚打出生涯最佳赛季的23岁运动健将，对掘金而言实在令人惋惜。
吉洛里： 纸面上看，火箭基本保留了上赛季的原班人马，范弗利特和亚当斯也都恢复了健康。上赛季出场时间达到900分钟以上的八名球员中，有七人悉数回归。
虽然斯马特的加入很好地弥补了奥科吉离队的空缺，但不要低估约什·奥科吉上赛季对球队的贡献——他强硬的持球人防守和攻防两端的拼劲。当许多火箭球迷呼吁给伊森或谢泼德更多出场时间时，从正负值角度看，休斯顿最好的阵容配置中往往有奥科吉的身影。
比起任何个人的流失，更大的隐忧在于：常规赛期间，火箭的外线球员们享受了令人难以置信的伤病运气。杜兰特、汤普森、史密斯和谢泼德都至少出战了77场比赛——考虑到他们大多数夜晚的高出场时间，这相当不可思议。本赛季火箭还能让这些人保持健康吗？
克劳钦斯基： 是爱德华兹身边组织能力和投射能力的缺失。朱利叶斯·兰德尔在2025年西部决赛对阵雷霆以及2026年分区半决赛对阵马刺时表现极为挣扎。爱德华兹需要一位第二球星来分担更多进攻重担，尤其是在他忍着双膝伤痛作战的情况下。
杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯对阵马刺时的表现也不如首轮对阵丹佛时高效。随着鲍尔和库明加的加入，以及多苏穆迎来在明尼苏达的首个完整赛季，森林狼希望他们已经找到了一些答案。
是什么让你的球队与这一梯队中的其他三支球队区别开来？
默里： 太平洋时区？
说真的，湖人与掘金、火箭和森林狼的区别在于，他们与这三支展现出真正进步的球队交手时取得了实实在在的胜利。掘金曾在连续两个季后赛中终结了达尔文·哈姆执教的湖人，但过去两个赛季有东契奇出战的比赛中，湖人对掘金取得了4胜1负。
森林狼在2025年季后赛中击败过湖人，随后湖人在2025-26赛季常规赛对森林狼完成横扫——而且两场比赛勒布朗都没有出战。圣诞节当天湖人曾被火箭痛击，但随后八场交锋赢下六场，包括在休斯顿的四场胜利，以及一场没有东契奇的情况下拿下的分区四分之一决赛胜利。
这种优势需要在本赛季重新建立，但主教练JJ·雷迪克和他的教练组上赛季已经摸透了这几支球队。
克拉克： 掘金拥有这几支球队中最好的球员。上赛季，约基奇成为NBA历史上第一位单赛季场均篮板和场均助攻均领跑全联盟的球员。他是一位力量与技巧兼备的中锋，是我们从未真正见过的类型——有点像史蒂夫·纳什长高了七英寸、增重了100磅。
我得说，我期待东契奇打出一个精彩的赛季。他的身材状态看起来非常出色，而且在我看来，他是唯一一位在纯进攻天赋上能与约基奇相提并论的NBA球员。
吉洛里： 火箭的防守上限应该远高于洛杉矶和丹佛所能达到的高度，而且现在可能也超过了明尼苏达——毕竟鲍尔和库明加如今是对手显而易见的攻击目标。听起来也许有些奇怪，但我还要说，火箭是这几支球队中唯一拥有足够选秀资产、能在交易截止日前完成一笔大运作、进一步搅动格局的球队。
如果凯里·欧文、凯昂特·乔治或特雷·墨菲这样的人突然变得可以交易，火箭拥有 swoop in 摘走其中任何一人的必要筹码。而湖人、森林狼和掘金这三支球队加起来，在2030年之前可交易的首轮签数量为零。
克劳钦斯基： 森林狼可以说是这几支球队中后场最强的。鲍尔和爱德华兹完全有资格竞争联盟最佳后场组合。这两位全明星级别的球员都在今年8月刚满25岁。
今年夏天，他们花了大量时间相处，包括在明尼阿波利斯的球队训练馆一起训练。一切都取决于他们之间的化学反应。
你的球队要打进西部决赛需要具备什么条件？
默里： 他们需要东契奇、里夫斯和凯斯勒在常规赛中打出最佳状态，并且保持健康耐战。这三名球员上赛季都缺席了大量比赛。如今没有勒布朗来兜底了。
湖人有足够多的可用之才来填充轮换，但这三人才是被寄予厚望的胜负手。考虑到雷霆和马刺上赛季几乎不费吹灰之力就能给湖人的持球人施压、并随意打穿湖人的防线，这可能仍然不够。雷迪克将如何围绕东契奇、里夫斯和凯斯勒弥补这些短板，值得密切关注。
但如果东契奇、里夫斯或凯斯勒无法打出应有水准，或者根本无法出场，那其他一切都免谈。
克拉克： 最重要的是，掘金需要一位健康的戈登——他过去两个赛季缺席了75场比赛。掘金根本无法替代他的技术特点。戈登为丹佛提供护框和持球人防守。他是约基奇完美的空接目标，而且技术细腻到足以在三次MVP得主下场休息时持球组织进攻。
上赛季，戈登在场的时段里，掘金每百回合净胜对手12.7分。没有他，掘金想在季后赛中赢下多轮系列赛毫无希望。
吉洛里： 首先，他们需要季后赛中有一位健康的杜兰特——上赛季他们没能做到这一点。杜兰特的得分能力和火箭可以摆上场的众多高水平防守者，应该能让火箭成为首轮任何对手都难以啃下的硬骨头。但除此之外，他们最需要的是申京和汤普森在各自的职业生涯中迈出下一步，成为可靠的季后赛球员，达到其他球队核心们已经证明过的水准。
明尼苏达、洛杉矶和丹佛可不只是我们见过的那些主角在大场面下挺身而出。麦克丹尼尔斯、戈登和里夫斯都在季后赛中证明过自己。尽管杜兰特在这个职业生涯阶段依然有能力打出伟大表现，但他需要他的两位最重要的搭档证明自己已经准备好迎接大场面，并职业生涯首次突破首轮。
克劳钦斯基： 让我们一个一个来说。
- 爱德华兹：打出他在招募库明加时所谈论的那种持续稳定的防守。
- 鲍尔：保持健康，并让自己的决策方式适应这支球队——这是他职业生涯中第一次为一支真正有争胜目标的球队效力。
- 麦克丹尼尔斯：在进攻端再进一步，成为真正的第三进攻选择。
- 库明加：接受角色定位，而不是追逐球星地位和金钱。
- 戈贝尔：与鲍尔培养挡拆化学反应。
- 多苏穆：在组织者和得分手之间自如切换。
- 香农：提升防守端的细节专注度。
- 贝兰热尔：证明自己每晚能胜任戈登替补的15-20分钟出场时间。
- 特雷·莱尔斯：在特定对位中成为森林狼需要的空间型四号位选择。
- 唐特·迪温琴佐：及时从跟腱撕裂中复出，在季后赛开始前找回比赛状态。
- 杰伦·克拉克：投进底角三分。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Which Western Conference teams are closest to dethroning the Spurs and Thunder?
Which Western Conference teams are closest to dethroning the Spurs and Thunder?
By the start of the 2026 NBA playoffs, it was a foregone conclusion to many the road to Western Conference supremacy would go through San Antonio and Oklahoma City.
Once the Spurs and Thunder completed their epic, seven-game battle in the Western Conference finals, which ended with the Spurs upsetting the defending NBA champs on the road, it felt like that series was just the beginning of these teams’ collective reign atop the West for the foreseeable future.
Not only are San Antonio and Oklahoma City flush with young talent, but they both have young, accomplished head coaches they believe in. Both teams also have a ton of draft assets that will allow them to make other moves when they deem necessary.
Beyond those top two, there are four other teams in the Western Conference with superstar talent, formidable playoff resumes and a clear commitment to immediately competing at the highest level: the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets. On paper, those four have the skill set to compete for a title — but it also feels to some like they all have a long way to go to catch the top dogs in the West.
What can be done among these four teams to change that dynamic? To provide insight on where each team stands heading into the regular season, we turn to the following NBA writers: Will Guillory on the Rockets, Law Murray on the Lakers, Christian Clark on the Nuggets and Jon Krawczynski on the Timberwolves.
What’s the biggest reason your team should be considered a serious threat to break into the Spurs/Thunder tier?
Murray (Lakers): Luka Dončić, the reigning, defending scoring champion. He’s not getting traded like two seasons ago, and the Lakers are hoping the injuries that torpedoed his spring can be left behind. Three seasons ago, Dončić led the Dallas Mavericks, a five-seed, through the hot coals of the Western Conference.
This Lakers team is further formed in Dončić’s image, with new money paid out to his chosen sidekick (Austin Reaves) and an optimal bodyguard (Walker Kessler) and without having to account for LeBron James anymore. It also doesn’t hurt that the Lakers have only three games each against the Thunder and Spurs this season, not including the two matchups that will appear on the schedule after NBA Cup group play concludes.
Clark (Nuggets): When healthy, the Nuggets have one of the best starting fives in the NBA. Last season, the unit of Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić steamrolled opponents, outscoring other teams by 13.5 points per 100 possessions.
The problem was that we didn’t get to see it much because of health. This Nuggets quintet collectively played 360 minutes together across 23 games. Gordon missed more than half the season, mostly because of persistent right hamstring issues, and Braun was limited to 44 games due to a badly sprained left ankle. The Nuggets need bounce-back seasons from both players. I’m not that worried about Braun. He’s been very durable in the past and, at only 25 years old, doesn’t have much mileage on him. I hold more concern for Gordon, who’s 30 and has played only 87 games over the past two years.
Guillory (Rockets): When fully healthy, the Rockets have the size, strength and versatility to bully just about anyone in the league. Last season, Houston was No. 6 in defensive rating and No. 1 in rebounding percentage, despite getting only 32 games from Steven Adams. With Adams back, the Rockets can return to featuring double-big lineups with him and Alperen Şengün that crushed opponents in short stints the last two seasons.
Houston also has one of the deepest stables of wings in the league with Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and their newest addition: Marcus Smart. Rockets coach Ime Udoka will be able to keep at least two All-Defensive-caliber perimeter players on the floor for all 48 minutes. Add Fred VanVleet to the mix after returning from a torn ACL and Reed Sheppard entering Year 3, and Houston’s top-nine rotation players will be as talented and defensively sound as any other top nine around the NBA.
Krawczynski (Timberwolves): Pure talent. There are real questions to ask whether the new-look Wolves can stay healthy and how all the pieces will fit together. But in terms of just raw talent from one through nine, the Wolves have a lot of it.
Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball are two of the best offensive players in the league. Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels are two of the best defensive players in the league. Jonathan Kuminga is ultra athletic and comes in with something to prove. Ayo Dosunmu, Terrence Shannon Jr., Joan Beringer and Bones Hyland have plenty of juice off the bench.
Chris Finch has a lot of work to do in tailoring an offense to maximize this team’s strengths. But he also has a lot of tools at his disposal.
What was the biggest addition that will help get your team past San Antonio and/or OKC?
Murray: It better be Kessler. They gave up picks and dollars to secure a player whose best years need to be ahead of him. The Thunder and Spurs are both drive-heavy teams, and Kessler certainly will be needed as a deterrent at the rim for when questionable Lakers defenders get opened up.
On the other side, Kessler’s finishing and offensive rebounding will be critical against two teams that have elite rim protection and additional developmental size. He has to be very good against the teams that employ Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama.
Clark: By default, it has to be signing DeMar DeRozan to a one-year deal worth the veteran’s minimum, right? There aren’t many other moves to choose from. I think there are legitimate questions about how DeRozan’s isolation-heavy style meshes with Jokić’s preference for ball and body movement, but overall, this is still a good signing for the Nuggets.
DeRozan will transition into a reserve role after spending the first 17 years of his NBA career as a starter. The Nuggets needed someone capable of getting their own shot in these bench units. I’m not optimistic that a 37-year-old DeRozan moves the needle that much in a playoff series against the Spurs or Thunder, but he’s still a capable bucket-getter.
Guillory: Houston’s desperate need for reliable point-guard play may have been the most glaring weakness on any of these four teams last season. While Thompson did excel in an increased role and Sheppard found a way to gradually improve as the season went along, this team’s constant failures in late-game situations was usually fueled by the lack of a veteran presence to settle the team down and generate quality possessions during pivotal moments.
Now, not only is VanVleet back after missing the entire 2025-26 season, but Smart also enters the fold in Houston after playing a pivotal role in knocking his new team out of last season’s playoffs as a member of the Lakers. VanVleet and Smart have played a combined 177 playoff games. They know how to execute when the pressure goes up.
Additionally, we’ve seen throughout Durant’s career that, although he’s capable of dominating in just about any environment, he’s at his very best when he gets to play next to a point guard who can take some of the shot-creation burden off his shoulders.
Krawczynski: Ball. The Wolves struggled in the playoffs against San Antonio last season because the Spurs could relentlessly double-team Anthony Edwards without any consequence behind them. As soon as Edwards would cross half court, two (and sometimes even three) Spurs would be waiting for him. Ball is a one-man counterpunch to that approach.
If Edwards can throw the ball over the top to Ball, he will immediately have a four-on-three advantage, and that’s where he eats. With either a quick 3 or a slick pass to an open shooter, Ball will be able to take so much playmaking pressure off Edwards. It will also allow Edwards to spend more time in his natural position off the ball, attacking closeouts and creating for himself.
If he has the same impact on Wolves teammates that he had in raising the floor for every Charlotte player who shared the floor with him last season, Minnesota has a real shot.
What was the biggest loss that will hurt your team against San Antonio/OKC?
Murray: LeBron James is the obvious one. Not having him on the floor makes the Lakers more ordinary from a positional-size standpoint, not to mention that James led the entire league in fast-break points. The Lakers were one of the least athletic teams in the league last season, and yet, they had a 41-year-old sprinting out for easy buckets.
But a word here for Smart leaving too. Smart was a shutdown corner, a player who could take on the assignment of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Stephon Castle and allow the Lakers to shift their defense accordingly. Now, the Lakers don’t have that level of point-of-attack defense or defensive versatility among their rotation players. (Is Quentin Grimes up for that?)
Clark: Peyton Watson. The Nuggets’ first-round playoff series loss to the Timberwolves put the gap in athleticism between the teams in stark relief. The Timberwolves paraded to the rim at will and hounded Jamal Murray, who shot 35.7 percent from the field. If the Nuggets are ever going to get back to the finals, it seems obvious to me that they’re going to need to surround Murray and Jokić with long, rangy athletes like Watson, who didn’t suit up in the postseason.
It had to be gutting for Nuggets fans to watch Watson get sent to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a sign-and-trade and not receive a player in return. We’ll see what the Nuggets do with the 2031 Cavaliers first-round pick they control between now and February. But what a shame it was for the Nuggets to lose a 23-year-old athlete like Watson, who was coming off a career year.
Guillory: On paper, the Rockets are bringing back close to the same team they had last season, and VanVleet and Adams are healthy once again. Seven of the eight players who logged at least 900 minutes last season are back.
While the addition of Smart is a great way to address his departure, don’t sleep on how much Josh Okogie helped last season’s team with his physical on-ball defense and overall hustle on both ends of the floor. While many Rockets fans clamored for more minutes with Eason or Sheppard, Houston’s best lineups from a plus-minus perspective often featured Okogie.
More than any individual loss, the one concern is that the Rockets had incredible injury luck with their perimeter guys during the regular season. Durant, Thompson, Smith and Sheppard all appeared in at least 77 games, which is wild considering how high their minute totals were most nights. Will the Rockets be able to keep all those guys healthy again this season?
Krawczynski: The lack of playmaking and shooting around Edwards. Julius Randle struggled mightily in the 2025 Western Conference finals against OKC and the 2026 conference semifinals against San Antonio. Edwards needed a second star to shoulder more of the offensive load, especially while he was playing through the pain of two injured knees.
Jaden McDaniels also wasn’t as effective against the Spurs as he was against Denver in the first round. With Ball and Kuminga added, and with Dosunmu entering his first full season in Minnesota, the Wolves hope they have found some answers.
What separates your team from the other three in this tier?
Murray: The Pacific Time Zone?
To be honest, what separates the Lakers from the Nuggets, Rockets and Timberwolves is they had real success against those three teams that showed real progress. The Nuggets ended the Darvin Ham-led Lakers teams in back-to-back postseasons, but the Lakers are 4-1 against the Nuggets with Dončić playing the last two seasons.
The Timberwolves beat the Lakers in the 2025 playoffs, then the Lakers went on to sweep the Timberwolves in the 2025-26 regular-season series — and LeBron didn’t play in either meeting. The Lakers were unwrapped by the Rockets on Christmas before winning six of the next eight matchups, including four wins in Houston and a conference-quarterfinals win without Dončić.
That success has to be re-established this season, but head coach JJ Redick and his staff figured these teams out last season.
Clark: The Nuggets have the best player among this group of teams. Jokić became the first player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounds and assists per game last season. He’s a mixture of power and finesse in a center we’ve never really seen before — sort of like if Steve Nash was seven inches taller and 100 pounds heavier.
I will say that I’m expecting Dončić to have a fantastic season. He looks like he’s in phenomenal shape and is the only NBA player, in my mind, who comes close to matching Jokić in terms of pure offensive talent.
Guillory: The Rockets have a defensive ceiling that should be well above what Los Angeles and Denver can reach, and it probably exceeds Minnesota now that Ball and Kuminga are two obvious targets teams will look to attack. As weird as it sounds, I’d also say Houston is the one team out of this group that has the draft assets to go out and make a big move before the trade deadline to shake things up even more.
If someone like Kyrie Irving, Keyonte George or Trey Murphy suddenly became available, the Rockets have the assets necessary to swoop in and grab one of those guys. The Lakers-Wolves-Nuggets trio have a combined zero first-round picks they can move before the 2030 season.
Krawczynski: The Wolves arguably have the best backcourt of this group. Ball and Edwards can make a case for being the best backcourt in the league. They are two All-Star-level performers who just turned 25 in August.
They have been spending a ton of time around each other this summer, including working out together at the team’s practice facility in Minneapolis. Everything hinges on their connection.
What has to happen for your team to reach the Western Conference finals?
Murray: They need Dončić, Reaves and Kessler to be the best versions of themselves in the regular season, and to be durable, as well. All three players missed significant time last year. LeBron is not around to help raise the floor.
The Lakers have plenty of warm bodies ready to populate the rotation, but these three are the chosen difference makers. It still might not be enough, given the fact that the Thunder and Spurs had very little problems pressuring the Lakers’ ballhandlers and then beating the Lakers’ defense at will. How Redick accounts for those shortcomings around Dončić, Reaves and Kessler bears watching.
But if Dončić, Reaves, or Kessler aren’t playing to their level, or aren’t playing at all, you can forget about everything else.
Clark: More than anything, the Nuggets need a healthy Gordon, who has missed 75 games over the past two seasons. There’s no way for the Nuggets to replace his skill set. Gordon gives Denver rim protection and on-ball defense. He’s a perfect lob target for Jokić, one who is skilled enough to handle the ball and create offense when the three-time MVP goes to the bench.
The Nuggets outscored other teams by 12.7 points per 100 possessions in Gordon’s minutes last season. They have zero hope of winning multiple playoff series without him.
Guillory: First and foremost, they need a healthy Durant in the postseason, which they did not have last season. Durant’s shotmaking and the plethora of high-level defenders they can put on the floor should make the Rockets a tough out for anyone they get in the first round. But beyond that, what they need most is Şengün and Thompson to take the next step in their respective careers and become reliable playoff performers who can match what guys on these other teams have proven already.
With Minnesota, L.A. and Denver, it’s not just the main guys we’ve seen come up big under the bright lights. McDaniels. Gordon and Reaves all are proven in the playoffs. As great as Durant is still capable of being at this stage in his career, he needs his two biggest co-stars to show they’re ready to rise to the occasion and get past the first round for the first time in their careers.
Krawczynski: Let’s just go through it one by one.
- Edwards: Play the kind of consistent defense he was talking about in his recruitment of Kuminga.
- Ball: Stay healthy and tailor his decision-making to a team that is playing for real stakes for the first time in his career.
- McDaniels: Make another leap offensively to true third option.
- Kuminga: Embrace playing a role over chasing stardom and money.
- Gobert: Develop pick-and-roll chemistry with Ball.
- Dosunmu: Effectively toggle between playmaker and scorer.
- Shannon: Improve his attention to detail on defense.
- Beringer: Prove he can handle 15-20 minutes nightly as Gobert’s backup.
- Trey Lyles: Be the floor-spacing 4 option the Wolves need against certain matchups.
- Donte DiVincenzo: Return from this torn Achilles in time to get his feet underneath him before the playoffs.
- Jaylen Clark: Make corner 3s.
By The Athletic NBA Staff / The Athletic
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