By Chris Herring | ESPN, 2024-12-26 21:16:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
随着第二届NBA杯赛落下帷幕，激动人心的圣诞大战五场比赛也已结束，2025年即将到来，现在正是回顾本赛季前三分之一最引人注目趋势的最佳时机。
波士顿凯尔特人队和俄克拉荷马雷霆队和我们预想的一样强劲，而克利夫兰骑士队和休斯顿火箭队则带来了惊喜，他们不仅是常规赛的佳话，更是真正的冠军争夺者。
明尼苏达森林狼队和印第安纳步行者队，这两支上赛季的分区决赛球队，如今与洛杉矶湖人队、金州勇士队和菲尼克斯太阳队等争冠球队一起陷入了附加赛的争夺。随着交易截止日期仅剩六周，本赛季后半段的比赛可能会更加精彩刺激。
新年将至，以下是我们从赛季前两个月得出的几点结论，包括圣安东尼奥马刺队内线球员维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的巨大飞跃，两位争冠球队围绕他们的超级巨星面临的截然不同的问题，以及联盟三分球爆炸式增长的未来。
詹姆斯在场时湖人队的表现反而更差
作为一名征战NBA 22年的老将和NBA历史得分王，勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)在下周年满40岁之际所取得的大部分统计数据都将是前无古人的。
但在湖人队跌宕起伏的赛季中——圣诞大战战胜勇士队是最近的一个篇章——詹姆斯已经“解锁”了一项他宁愿没有的成就：自从2003-04赛季詹姆斯的新秀赛季以来，他的球队在他上场时的表现比他不在场时更差，这还是第一次。
众所周知，正负值指标可能会受到干扰，因为它经常受到场上其他球员的影响，但湖人队在詹姆斯没有安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)的情况下比赛时的表现（每百回合净负12.1分）或许最能说明问题，也最令人担忧。与上赛季相比，这代表着每百回合净胜分足足下降了17分。例如，在周一输给活塞队的比赛中，洛杉矶在詹姆斯和戴维斯同时在场时净胜17分，但在詹姆斯没有戴维斯的情况下比赛时净负18分。
詹姆斯的总正负值为-107，在目前有望进入季后赛的球队中排名倒数第二。（只有丹佛掘金队的朱利安·斯特劳瑟(Julian Strawther)，正负值为-117，在圣诞大战之前更低。）这与詹姆斯上赛季的+218或2022-23赛季的+214形成了鲜明对比。
底线是：17胜13负的湖人队在詹姆斯在场时每百回合净负8.7分。这个巨大的净效率差距相当于14胜14负的森林狼队和7胜22负的夏洛特黄蜂队之间的差距。
几乎所有差距都来自防守端，当詹姆斯在场时，对手每百回合对湖人队得115.8分，这是湖人队轮换球员中第二高的。（只有新秀道尔顿·克奈希特(Dalton Knecht)的116.2更高。）但当詹姆斯休息时，球队每百回合仅失106.5分，这在全联盟范围内将是前五的水平。
詹姆斯一直饱受足部伤病困扰，他在本月早些时候缺席了几场比赛，复出后在防守端的表现有所好转。自从詹姆斯复出后的四场比赛中，洛杉矶的防守效率一直排名前五。
尽管如此，湖人队要想成为西部的一支争冠球队，仍然面临着艰巨的挑战。一个重要的因素是詹姆斯和湖人队能否在他上场时更好地防守。
文班的最佳防守球员之路已经开启
这位20岁球员的进步几乎在各个方面都体现得淋漓尽致；尤其是在防守端，文班看起来占据统治地位，即使与他令人印象深刻的新秀赛季相比也是如此。
在过去的四场比赛中，这位法国人送出了29次盖帽，他本赛季的95次盖帽总数比第二多的球员多出31次。同样令人印象深刻的是：他整个赛季只被吹罚了一次干扰球。（根据Second Spectrum的数据，他在比赛中平均手腕高度为9.42英尺，为NBA最高，这对他很有帮助。）
但文班的影响力不仅仅体现在他送出的盖帽上。除了对投手的威慑作用外，文班还会迫使突破球员因为害怕被盖帽而仓促出手。他将篮下投手的命中率限制在惨淡的48.9%，比他们的平均值低了近14个百分点。（这两个指标都是本赛季在150次以上此类出手的球员中联盟最佳。）相比之下，上赛季，球员们面对文班的投篮命中率为53.7%，比他们的平均值低了约11个百分点——当时在NBA排名第11。
丹佛有一个显而易见的问题
在2胜3负的艰难开局之后（前两场胜利是在对阵重建中的布鲁克林篮网队和多伦多猛龙队的加时赛中取得的），掘金队在接下来的六场比赛中赢了五场。尽管如此，球队仍然没有解决最大的问题：每当他们的三届MVP下场休息时，球队就无法保持自身的优势。
尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)场均得到职业生涯最高的30.9分，外加12.5个篮板和9.7次助攻，即使以他自己的MVP标准来衡量，他的表现也堪称出色。掘金队在他上场时净胜对手211分，但在他下场时净负118分。看看12月3日对阵金州勇士队的比赛就知道了，掘金队在约基奇上场时赢了23分，但在他的替补上场时输了19分。
对于掘金队来说，这整个赛季都是一个熟悉的故事。他们在第二节的比赛中，也就是他们的替补阵容通常上场时间最多的时候，平均每百回合净负9.1分。只有奇才队（4胜23负）、黄蜂队（7胜22负）和新奥尔良鹈鹕队（5胜25负）的表现更差。即使自由球员新援拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)表现出色，掘金队的替补阵容仍然是联盟中最弱的阵容之一，即使球队的二号或三号球员与替补球员一起上场也是如此。
例如：当贾马尔·穆雷(Jamal Murray)与其他四名首发球员的替补一起上场时，掘金队在75分钟内每百回合净负5.1分。更糟糕的是，当迈克尔·波特(Michael Porter Jr.)在没有其他首发球员的情况下上场时，掘金队在65分钟内每百回合净负超过60分。这对一支仍在评估其角色球员的球队来说都不是好兆头，但这支球队在季后赛中每场比赛至少需要在没有约基奇的情况下撑过几分钟。
NBA正在关注三分球的持续井喷
上周，NBA总裁亚当·萧华(Adam Silver)表示，他和他的工作人员正在关注三分球在比赛中日益增长的作用。但他们应该这样做吗？远程跳投是否得到了比它们应得的更多的关注？答案是复杂的。
是的，各队平均每场比赛出手37.6次三分球——高于上赛季的35.1次——这是联盟历史上的最高平均值。但与此同时，跳投总数实际上比两个赛季前有所下降（所有投篮出手的53.4%，而2022-23赛季为53.8%）。
也许最有趣的是：全联盟三分球的量化投篮质量（qSQ）——即考虑到投篮距离和最近防守球员的距离，投篮命中的可能性——是自2013-14赛季Second Spectrum追踪数据首次记录以来的最高值。随着投篮机会变得更好、效率更高，球队没有理由减少三分球的出手次数。
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这表明联盟需要做更多的事情——也许允许防守端更多的身体对抗——来更好地帮助那些试图覆盖越来越分散的场地的防守球员。
ESPN Research的马特·威廉姆斯(Matt Williams)对本文亦有贡献。
点击查看原文：NBA themes to watch after Christmas - LeBron, Jokic, Wemby defense
NBA themes to watch after Christmas - LeBron, Jokic, Wemby defense
With the second NBA Cup in the books, the thrilling five-game Christmas Day slate behind us and the 2025 calendar just days away, it’s a perfect time to reflect on the most notable trends that have taken hold throughout the first third of the season.
The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are as strong as we thought they’d be, while the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets have been extremely pleasant surprises, with each vying to be seen not only as good regular-season stories, but true title contenders.
And with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers, two of last season’s conference finalists, joining contenders such as the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns in conference play-in battles, the latter half of the season could make for a wild ride – especially with the trade deadline just six weeks away.
With the new year on the horizon, here are a handful of takeaways we’ve drawn from over the first two months of the season, including a massive leap for San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama, two contenders facing opposite problems around their superstars and the future of the league’s 3-point explosion.
The Lakers have been worse with LeBron James on the court
As a 22-year veteran and the leading scorer in NBA history, most of the statistical feats James achieves upon turning 40 years old next week will be firsts.
But in the midst of the Lakers’ up-and-down season – the dramatic Christmas Day win over the Warriors being the latest chapter – LeBron has already accomplished one he’d prefer to reverse: For the first time since James’ rookie season in 2003-04, his team is worse while he’s on the court than when he’s not.
It’s well-understood that plus-minus metrics can be noisy, as they’re often influenced by the many players who share the court, but the Lakers’ performance when James plays without Anthony Davis (minus-12.1 points per 100 possessions) is perhaps the most illustrative – and problematic. It represents a whopping reversal of 17 points per 100 possessions from last season. In Monday’s loss to the Pistons, for instance, Los Angeles was a plus-17 in the James-Davis minutes, but a minus-18 in the minutes James played without his fellow star.
James is a minus-107 overall, the NBA’s second worst among those who play for a team that would be in the postseason if the season ended today. (Only Denver wing Julian Strawther, at minus-117, had a lower plus-minus heading into the Christmas games.) That makes for a stark contrast from the plus-218 James logged last season or the plus-214 he posted in 2022-23.
The bottom line is this: The 17-13 Lakers have been 8.7 points worse per 100 possessions with James on the court than they’ve been with him off. That huge net-rating gap is equivalent to the one between the 14-14 Wolves and the 7-22 Charlotte Hornets.
Nearly that entire margin comes on defense, where opposing teams are scoring 115.8 points per 100 possessions against Los Angeles when James is playing, the second-highest mark among the Lakers’ rotation players. (Only rookie Dalton Knecht’s 116.2 is higher.) But the team gives up just 106.5 points per 100 when James takes breathers, which would be a top-five rate in the league on a team scale.
James, who’d been playing through a nagging foot injury, sat out a couple of games earlier in the month and has looked better on defense since returning. Los Angeles has had the profile of a top-five defense in the four games since James came back.
Still, the Lakers face an uphill battle to become a contender in the West. A huge factor will be whether James and the Lakers defend better in his minutes on the court.
Wemby’s DPOY campaign has begun
The progression of the 20-year-old’s game is on display nightly in nearly every regard; particularly on defense, where Wembanyama has looked dominant, even compared to his impressive rookie season.
In the past four games, the Frenchman has compiled 29 blocks, and his total of 95 this season are 31 more than the next-closest player. Equally impressive: He has been whistled for only one goaltending call all season. (It helps that he has an average wrist height of 9.42 feet on his contests, the NBA’s highest, per Second Spectrum.)
But it’s not merely the shots that Wembanyama returns to sender that he’s affecting. Aside from the deterrent effect that he has on shooters, Wembanyama also forces drivers to rush shots because of their fear of rejection. He’s holding shooters at the basket to a dismal 48.9% shooting, nearly 14 percentage points worse than their averages. (Both metrics are the best in the league among players who’ve challenged 150 such shots this season.) Last season, for comparison, players shot 53.7% against Wembanyama, which was about 11 percentage points off of their average – good for 11th best in the NBA at the time.
Denver has a painfully obvious problem
After a rocky 2-3 start, with those first two wins coming in overtime against the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, the Nuggets won five of their next six. Still, the team hasn’t solved its biggest problem: It can’t hold its own whenever its three-time MVP takes a seat.
Nikola Jokic, averaging a career-best 30.9 points to go along with 12.5 rebounds and 9.7 assists, has been fantastic – even by his own MVP-caliber standards. Denver has blasted foes by 211 points with him on the court but have been outscored by 118 when he’s on the bench. Look no further than the Dec. 3 game against the Golden State Warriors, in which Denver won the Jokic minutes by 23, but lost his bench minutes by 19.
It has been a familiar story all season for the Nuggets, who have lost second quarters, when their second string generally gets its most playing time, by an average of 9.1 points per 100 possessions. Only the Wizards (4-23), Hornets (7-22) and the New Orleans Pelicans (5-25) have managed to fare worse. Even with free agent newcomer Russell Westbrook playing well, the Nuggets’ bench has been among the weaker units in the league, even when the team’s second- or third-best player is sharing the court with the reserves.
Case in point: When Jamal Murray is playing with the other four starters on the bench, Denver is being outscored by 5.1 points per 100 possessions in 75 minutes. Even worse, when Michael Porter Jr. is on the court without any other starters, the Nuggets are being overwhelmed by more than 60 points per 100 possessions in 65 minutes. Neither bodes well for a club that’s still assessing what it has in terms of role players but will need to survive at least a few minutes per game come postseason without Jokic on the court.
The NBA is looking into the continued 3-point explosion
Last week, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said he and his staffers are paying attention to the increased role of the 3-point shot in the sport. But should they? Are the long-range jumpers getting more attention than they deserve? The answer is mixed.
Yes, teams are taking 37.6 3s per game – up from 35.1 last season – the highest average in league history. But at the same time, jumpers as a whole are actually down from where they were two seasons ago (53.4% of all shot attempts as opposed to 53.8% in 2022-23).
Perhaps the most interesting: The leaguewide quantified shot quality (qSQ) on 3s – meaning the likelihood of a shot going in while taking into account a shooter’s distance and the closest defender’s proximity – is the highest since Second Spectrum tracking data was first logged in 2013-14. With the looks becoming better and more efficient, teams have little reason to take fewer of them.
If anything, it suggests that the league needs to do more – perhaps allowing more physicality on defense – to better equip defenses that are trying to cover an increasingly spaced-out floor.
ESPN Research’s Matt Williams contributed to this story.
By Chris Herring | ESPN, via ESPN