By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, 2026-04-10 19:00:00
在NBA，三月和四月的表现有时只是海市蜃楼。
常规赛的最后几周往往呈现出这样的景象：顶级强队在为季后赛蓄力，垫底球队在摆烂，伤痕累累的球星被提前关停，各种异常情况层出不穷。
结论是什么？赛季此时的表现和故事线并不总是能预示联盟、球队及其球员的未来。（如果你愿意，可以称之为“马拉基·弗林法则”。）
因此，教练、球探和高管们在每年的这个时候都会做一件事：判断他们在球场上看到的是真实实力还是虚假繁荣。随着2025-26赛季常规赛进入最后一个周末，我们询问了联盟内部人士，哪些赛季末的趋势会延续到季后赛，而哪些可能会在赌注变大后发生逆转。
失去卢卡·东契奇和奥斯汀·里夫斯的湖人能赢下一轮系列赛吗？
布莱恩·温德霍斯特 (Brian Windhorst)： 必须明确的是，卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)（腿筋）和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)（斜方肌）都被诊断为二级拉伤。两名球员肯定都会竭尽全力寻找及时复出的方法，以便在首轮产生影响，但这些都是严重的伤病。谁也无法预料两周后软组织损伤的感觉如何，但洛杉矶湖人队必须做好东契奇和里夫斯缺席整个系列赛的准备。
问题变成了：在41岁的勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 带领下，湖人能在七场四胜制的系列赛中击败他们最可能的对手休斯顿火箭队吗？
“我确信 [湖人主帅 JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick)] 和他的教练组正在研究战术，并尝试各种阵容方案，”一位东部联盟球探告诉 ESPN。“但老实说，湖人需要勒布朗在系列赛中手感火热，同时火箭队手感冰凉。这是有可能的，一旦勒布朗投开了三分球，整个局面就会打开。”
“他们需要马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 保持健康，”一位西部联盟球探表示。“他是球队重要的外线领防者。他们承担不起再失去一名首发球员的代价，而他最近一直缺阵。”
蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)： 令人遗憾的讽刺是，詹姆斯、东契奇和里夫斯终于找到了默契——很大程度上是因为詹姆斯接受了“第三球星”的角色。
“在这个角色中总得有人做出牺牲，”一位东部高管说。“过去是克里斯·波什 (Chris Bosh) 或凯文·乐福 (Kevin Love)。这一次，是他自己。”
现在，湖人将不得不依赖詹姆斯去带动那些几乎没有持球推进和自主进攻能力的阵容。你可以设想一种湖人能赢的情况——詹姆斯手感火热，湖人的角色球员投进球，而休斯顿在关键时刻掉链子——但这同时也忽略了在东契奇和里夫斯缺阵的情况下，双方之间明显的实力差距。
“休斯顿的防守，”一位西部高管说，“会直接把他们吞没。”
温德霍斯特： 二十年来，每当詹姆斯的球队陷入困境，最可靠的办法就是把球交到他手里，拉开空间，让他寻找最佳投篮机会。但问题在于，过去四到六周看起来很健康的詹姆斯，是否还能在半场进攻中通过运球过掉对手。（湖人在下半赛季冲刺阶段所造成的大部分杀伤都来自于转换进攻，他在那里的效率依然极高。）
“我很想看到勒布朗打出一个巅峰级别的系列赛，”另一位西部高管说。“但我担心那些从附加赛杀出来的球队，给俄克拉荷马城雷霆队和圣安东尼奥马刺队制造的麻烦，都要比没有里夫斯和卢卡的湖人给休斯顿制造的麻烦多。”
波士顿的轮换阵容足以支撑他们再次冲击总决赛吗？
邦坦普斯： 在波士顿凯尔特人队作为争冠热门的这段时间里，大部分注意力都集中在他们的球星身上：杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，以及德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)、艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford) 和朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 等球员。
但这种关注掩盖了 NBA 顶级的球员培养机器之一，这台机器不断地将首轮末位秀、次轮秀和落选秀转化为球队中坚。本赛季，在休赛期失去了波尔津吉斯、霍福德和霍勒迪后，凯尔特人主帅乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 让乔丹·沃尔什 (Jordan Walsh)、贝勒·谢尔曼 (Baylor Scheierman) 和雨果·冈萨雷斯 (Hugo Gonzalez) 等角色球员在合适的位置上取得了成功。
“每个人的弱点都被缩小了，”一位东部球探说，“而他们最大化了球员的长处。通过这种方式，他们创造了如此多的三分机会，以至于很难与他们对位。”
温德霍斯特： 马祖拉本赛季在培养替补席、设定和明确角色方面确实做得非常出色，这让塔图姆能够无缝回归。此外，佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard) 已经成长为一名不可或缺的贡献者，无论首发还是替补都能发挥作用。
但竞争对手认为波士顿的年轻球员将面临考验。
“总会出现一两个糟糕的单节，可能要到第二轮，这些年轻人就会暴露出经验不足的问题，”一位东部高管说。“他们可能有足够的 [球星战力] 来救场一两次，但他们应对逆境的方式将告诉我们这套阵容到底有多强。”
邦坦普斯： 波士顿的另一个问题在落在了中锋位置。内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta) 是一个名副其实的最快进步球员候选人，但他潜在的季后赛对位包括底特律活塞队的杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)、克利夫兰骑士队的贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 以及纽约尼克斯队的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)。凯尔特人的替补卢卡·加尔扎 (Luka Garza) 和尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vucevic) 都是空间型球员，但在防守端存在疑问。
“靠克塔、加尔扎和武切维奇 [打中锋] 能挺过去吗？”一位西部助教说。“我认为他们仍是那支最难被击败的球队，因为我见过他们做到过。”
骑士队的防守下滑会毁掉他们吗？
温德霍斯特： 克利夫兰骑士队在周三击败亚特兰大老鹰队的比赛中打出了过去几周最好的半场表现之一，而老鹰队在当晚之前在过去21场比赛中赢了18场。他们在下半场将亚特兰大的命中率限制在41%，多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 在单节44分的第三节表现出色。埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 在得分和篮板上也有巨大贡献。
但那场比赛之所以引人注目，是因为骑士在半场丢了67分，这是过去两个多月退步的缩影，自全明星赛以来他们的防守效率已跌至第17位。本周早些时候，他们让孟菲斯灰熊队投进了创 NBA 纪录的29记三分球，这是本赛季屡遭重创的三分防守的一部分。自全明星赛以来，克利夫兰在底角三分防守上的准星让对手达到了42%，排名联盟第20，与许多摆烂球队并列。
当哈登出场时，骑士队的战绩为19胜6负，但他们的防守困境和不断变动的阵容让人很难对他们抱有极大的信心。
“哈登是进攻大师，他和米切尔每晚都是对手沉重的负担，”一位东部球探说。“但哈登现在的体型不如从前，而且裁判出于某种原因不再像以前那样给他哨子了。这体现在防守端；他和米切尔有时在场上会被对手打爆。”
邦坦普斯： 一方面，克利夫兰可以寄希望于迎回过去几周一直受困于膝伤的阿伦，以帮助补救挣扎的防守。
另一方面，在季后赛中依靠马克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus) 或迪恩·韦德 (Dean Wade) 去防守精英级别的侧翼和持球者，可能会非常吃力。
“阿伦缺席了很长时间，他是球队体系的核心部分，”一位最近观察过骑士队的球探说。“进入季后赛大家都会更专注，防守会有所提升，但你仍然需要处理多诺万和詹姆斯的问题……”
“斯特鲁斯和韦德不够强，而基翁·埃利斯 (Keon Ellis) 又太瘦小了。”
温德霍斯特： 哈登在克利夫兰场均获得5.8次罚球，低于他本赛季为快船效力时的8.5次。自交易得到他以来，骑士队的进攻效率排名联盟第四。
“我理解他们做哈登交易的原因，我认为这确实让他们处境更好，”一位东部高管说。“但有些时候，他们在防守端派上 [萨姆]·梅里尔 (Sam Merrill) 会比派上哈登效果更好。我认为他们能走多远取决于多诺万的得分能力，这在以前他的球队中我们也见过。”
米切尔在63场季后赛中场均得到28分，曾有7次季后赛单场40+和3次50+。但他从未打进过分区决赛。
杰伦·杜伦能成为一支争冠球队的第二选择吗？
邦坦普斯： 杜伦与 MVP 候选人凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 一起，推动了底特律活塞队冲向东部榜首的巨大成功。但这位首次入选全明星的中锋能否提供足够的火力，成为一支尚未在季后赛证明过自己的球队的第二选择？
“我喜欢杜伦，”一位西部高管说。“[今年夏天] 给他在顶薪合同我挺纠结的，但这哥们真是个野兽。他能抢下每一个篮板，能防守，而且他的得分能力超出了我对本赛季的所有预期。”
温德霍斯特： 当坎宁安因肺部塌陷缺阵时，缺乏组织能力的活塞队开始依赖杜伦来创造进攻。主帅 JB·比克斯塔夫 (JB Bickerstaff) 设计了一些让杜伦在弧顶持球发牌的战术，很少有人知道他还有这一手。他的使用率和助攻数激增，活塞队的进攻确实从中受益。
在坎宁安受伤前的12场比赛中，杜伦总共只有14次助攻。在坎宁安缺阵的9场比赛中，杜伦场均助攻达到4次。这是活塞队在季后赛中可以利用的新武器。
邦坦普斯： 尽管如此，球队通常需要第二个高水平的持球者才能在季后赛走得更远，就像去年的俄克拉荷马城有谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 一样。底特律目前还没有这样的选项，这意味着他们必须采取集体协作的方式。
“当第一核心拥有如此高的使用率时，情况会变得容易吗？”那位西部高管问道。“这会有所帮助。但我不知道只靠他一个人行不行。”
圣安东尼奥全明星赛后的三分手感回升是真实的吗？
温德霍斯特： 赛季初期，尽管马刺队在维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 冲击篮筐的带动下开局出色，但常见的应对策略是收缩禁区，强迫他们投三分。这是一个明智的策略——马刺队并没有成群的长距离射手，而文班亚马有时会被诱导进行低效率的投篮。在赛季的前50场比赛中，马刺队的场均三分命中数排在第17位，命中率排在第22位。
“我一直看到你们媒体人说马刺为什么赢不了冠军，”一位东部副总裁说。“你们最好列一列他们为什么能赢。”
好吧，这里有一个重要原因：自全明星赛以来，马刺队在外线大幅发力。他们的三分命中率超过38%，在这一时期排名联盟第三，场均命中数达到14.9个，接近联盟前五。
邦坦普斯： 在二月和三月投进这些球是一回事。在四月下旬、五月和六月投进则是另一回事——尤其是这支球队大部分球员都缺乏季后赛经验。
自1995年奥兰多魔术队在沙奎尔·奥尼尔 (Shaquille O’Neal) 和安芬尼·哈达威 (Anfernee Hardaway) 带领下打进总决赛以来，已经30年没有球队在没有前一年季后赛经历的情况下直接杀入总决赛了。这两支球队有很多相似之处，也许马刺和他们的年轻球星会像当年的魔术队一样。
然而，周六对阵丹佛掘金队的那场惊险比赛中，凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)、达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 合计16投0中，这预示了季后赛对手可能采取的策略。
“年轻人第一次打季后赛完全是另一回事，”一位西部助教说。“看看这些家伙如何应对会很有趣。”
“但也许文班能靠自己搞定一切。”
斯蒂芬·库里能带领金州勇士赢下两场客场比赛吗？
邦坦普斯： 我交流过的联盟内部人士给出的即时回答是“不”。显然，从伤病角度来看，金州勇士队经历了一个残酷的赛季，包括失去了吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 和摩西·穆迪 (Moses Moody)，加上上半赛季乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 的闹剧，以及波尔津吉斯和库里在下半赛季缺席了大量比赛。
“我不确定他们能否赢下9-10名的那场比赛，更不用说连赢两场了，”一位西部球探说。“当斯蒂芬在主场爆发，身后有主场观众的欢呼时，那是一回事。那是真实存在的加成。”
“当他们在客场，他在别人的地盘这么做时，情况就不同了。那种因素不复存在。”
温德霍斯特： 对勇士队的关注自然大多集中在斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 身上，他在各方面都是比赛的改变者。但随着史蒂夫·科尔 (Steve Kerr) 应对伤病，勇士队的防守在收官阶段表现得非常挣扎。
“我们的分析人员会告诉我，三分球命中率往往取决于运气，关键在于投篮质量，”一位西部球探说。“那么，勇士队的运气肯定糟糕透顶，因为最近几次我看他们比赛时，他们在底角三分防守上简直被射穿了。”
对金州勇士来说，数据极其惨烈地印证了这一点。自全明星赛以来，勇士队在底角三分上的防守命中率是全联盟最差的46%，而在右侧底角的三分命中率更是达到了令人咋舌的57%。内线情况同样糟糕，过去两个月对手在合理冲撞区的命中率为71%，排名联盟倒数第五。
很难从勇士队目前的竞技状态中看出他们有能力完成任何形式的突围。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA intel: What execs, coaches, scouts are watching this postseason
NBA intel: What execs, coaches, scouts are watching this postseason
In the NBA, March and April can be a mirage.
The final few weeks of the regular season feature the best teams preparing for the playoffs, the worst teams tanking, banged-up star players being shut down and plenty of outlier situations unfolding.
The bottom line? Performances and storylines at this point in the season aren’t always predictive of the league, its teams and its players’ future. (The Malachi Flynn Principle, if you will.)
As a result, one thing coaches, scouts and executives do this time of year is decide whether what they’re seeing on the court is real or not. As the 2025-26 regular season enters its final weekend, we asked league insiders which late-season trends will carry over to the playoffs and which could reverse once the stakes become greater.
Can the Lakers win a series without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves?
Brian Windhorst: It is important to understand that both Doncic (hamstring) and Reaves (oblique) were diagnosed with Grade 2 strains. Both players will absolutely try to find a way to come back in time to make an impact on the first round, but these are significant injuries. Who can say how a soft tissue injury will feel two weeks from now, but the Lakers have to operate as if Doncic and Reaves will miss the entire series.
The question becomes: Can the Lakers win four of seven games with 41-year-old LeBron James carrying them against the Houston Rockets, their most likely opponent?
“There’s tactical stuff I’m sure [Lakers coach JJ Redick] and his staff are examining, and they’re running through lineup ideas,” an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. “But honestly, the Lakers need LeBron to have a hot shooting series and for the Rockets to have a cold shooting series. That’s possible, and when LeBron gets his 3-pointer going, it opens up the entire game.”
“They need Marcus Smart to be healthy,” a Western Conference scout said. “He’s an important point-of-attack defender for them. They can’t afford to lose another starter, and he’s been out.”
Tim Bontemps: The unfortunate irony is that James, Doncic and Reaves had finally gotten themselves going – in large part because James bought into a “third star” role.
“Someone always has to sacrifice in that role,” an East executive said. “In the past, that’s been Chris Bosh or Kevin Love. This time, it was him.”
Now, the Lakers will lean on James to carry lineups that are virtually devoid of ballhandling and shot creation. You can construct a world where the Lakers can do that – James gets hot, the Lakers’ role players hit shots and Houston struggles in the clutch – but that’s also ignoring the clear talent gap between the two sides with Doncic and Reaves out.
“Houston’s defense,” a West executive said, “will just swallow them up.”
Windhorst: For two decades, when James’ teams have been in trouble, the old reliable has been to put the ball in his hands, spread the floor and let him find the best shot. But there is a question of whether James, who has looked healthy for the past four to six weeks, can still beat players off the dribble in the half court. (Much of the damage he has done during the Lakers’ second-half surge has been in transition, where he remains very effective.)
“I’d love to be able to see LeBron have a vintage series,” a second West executive said. “But I’m afraid the teams that win the play-in might give OKC and San Antonio a better series than the Lakers can give Houston without AR and Luka.”
Is Boston’s supporting cast good enough for another Finals run?
Bontemps: Much of the focus during the Celtics’ time as title contenders has been on their stars: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and also players such as Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Jrue Holiday.
But that focus has masked one of the NBA’s top player development machines, one that has continuously turned late first-round picks, second-round picks and undrafted players into mainstays. This season, after the franchise lost Porzingis, Horford and Holiday in the offseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has put role players such as Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez in positions to succeed.
“Everyone’s weaknesses are minimized,” an Eastern scout said, “and they maximize their guys’ strengths. And, by doing that, they create so many 3s that it’s tough to match up with them.”
Windhorst: Mazzulla really did a masterful job this season of developing his bench and setting and defining roles that allowed Tatum to rejoin seamlessly. It also helps that Payton Pritchard has matured into an indispensable contributor who delivers whether he’s starting or coming off the bench.
But rivals believe Boston’s young players will be tested.
“There’s going to be a bad quarter or two, and probably not until the second round, where their young guys are going to show their age,” an East executive said. “They probably have enough [star power] to bail them out once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will teach us a lot about how good this roster really is.”
Bontemps: Boston’s other question is at center. Neemias Queta is a deserving Most Improved Player candidate, but his potential playoff matchups include the Detroit Pistons’ Jalen Duren, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Jarrett Allen and the New York Knicks’ Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The Celtics’ backups, Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic, are both floor spacers but question marks defensively.
“Can you survive with Queta and Garza and Vuc [at center]?” a West assistant coach said. “I think they’re the team to beat because I’ve seen them do it.”
Will the Cavs’ defensive regression doom them?
Windhorst: The Cavaliers had one of their best halves in the past few weeks Wednesday when they beat the Hawks, who entered the night winning 18 of their past 21 games. They held Atlanta to 41% shooting in the second half, and Donovan Mitchell and James Harden were terrific in a 44-point third quarter. Evan Mobley had a big game scoring and rebounding.
But that game stuck out because the Cavs allowed 67 points in the first half, part of a regression over the past two-plus months that has dropped their defensive efficiency to 17th since the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they gave up an NBA-record 29 3-pointers to the Memphis Grizzlies, part of a 3-point defense that has been victimized this season. Cleveland is allowing 42% shooting on corner 3s since the break, 20th in the league alongside many of the tanking teams.
The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden plays, but their defensive struggles and shifting lineups have made it hard to have enormous confidence in them.
“Harden is a master of offense, and he and Mitchell are an absolute load to handle every night,” an East scout said. “But Harden has been in better shape and the referees don’t give him as many calls as they used to for some reason. And it shows up on defense; he and Mitchell sometimes get torched out there.”
Bontemps: On one hand, Cleveland can hope that getting back Allen, who has been dealing with knee issues for the past few weeks, will help remedy its struggling defense.
On the other hand, relying on either Max Strus or Dean Wade to guard elite bigger wings and ball handlers in the playoffs could prove to be a struggle.
“Allen has missed a bunch of time, and he’s a big part of who they are,” a scout who saw the Cavaliers recently said. "You’ll get a bump because it’s the playoffs, and everyone is locked in, but you still have to manage Donovan and James. …
“Strus and Wade aren’t good enough, and Keon Ellis is too small.”
Windhorst: Harden is averaging 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, down from 8.5 in the 44 games he played for the Clippers this season. The Cavs are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since trading for him.
“I understand the reasons they made the Harden trade, and I think it did put them in a better spot,” an East executive said. “But they are going to have times where they’re going to be better off with [Sam] Merrill out there on defense more than Harden. I think they’ll go as far as Donovan’s scoring can take them, and that’s something we’ve seen before with his teams.”
Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, with seven 40-point playoff games and three 50-point playoff games. He has never reached a conference finals.
Can Jalen Duren be the second option for a Finals team?
Bontemps: Duren, alongside MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, has driven massive success during Detroit’s run to the East’s top seed. But can the first-time All-Star center score enough to be the second option on a team that hasn’t had any playoff success yet?
“I like Duren,” a West executive said. “I’m terrified to give him his max [this summer], but the dude is a beast. He grabs every rebound, can guard and his scoring has exceeded everything I would have expected coming into the season.”
Windhorst: When Cunningham was sidelined with a collapsed lung, the playmaking-challenged Pistons started leaning on Duren to create offense for them. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays on which Duren was the trigger man with the ball at the top of the key, something few knew he had in his game. His usage rate and assists spiked, and the Pistons’ offense really benefited.
In the 12 games before Cunningham got hurt, Duren had a total of 14 assists. In a nine-game stretch with Cunningham out, Duren averaged four per game. It’s something new the Pistons could have in the game plan during the playoffs.
Bontemps: That said, teams have typically needed a second high-level ball handler to get to the end in the postseason, like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for Oklahoma City last year. That option doesn’t exist right now for Detroit, meaning it will have to be a committee approach.
“When the first guy has so much usage, is that easier?” the West executive asked. “That helps it some. But I don’t know if it can be only him.”
Is San Antonio’s post-All-Star shooting surge real?
Windhorst: Early in the season, even as the Spurs were off to an awesome start behind Victor Wembanyama’s rim attacking, the common counter was to pack the paint to force 3-pointers. It was a sound strategy – the Spurs aren’t loaded with long-range shooters, and Wembanyama can be tempted into lower-percentage shots. Over the season’s first 50 games, the Spurs were 17th in 3-pointers per game and 22nd in percentage.
“I keep seeing you media guys say why the Spurs aren’t going to win the title,” one East vice president said. “You’d be better off listing reasons why they are.”
OK, here is a big one: Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have surged big-time from deep. They are shooting better than 38%, third in the league in that span, and are up to 14.9 makes a game, putting them just outside the top five.
Bontemps: It’s one thing to make those shots in February and March. It’s another to make them in late April, May and June – particularly when this roster is largely devoid of playoff experience.
It’s been 30 years since a team in this type of position reached the NBA Finals without making a run the year before: the 1995 Orlando Magic, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are plenty of similarities between these two teams, and perhaps things will play out like they did that year for the Magic and their young stars.
However, Saturday’s thriller against the Denver Nuggets, during which Keldon Johnson, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle combined to go 0-for-16, is a window into the approach playoff opponents could take.
“Young guys going through the playoffs for the first time is a totally different animal,” a West assistant coach said. "It will be interesting to see how those guys handle it.
“But maybe Victor will figure it all out on his own.”
Can Stephen Curry power Golden State to two road wins?
Bontemps: The immediate answer from league insiders I spoke to was “no.” Obviously, it’s been a brutal season for Golden State from an injury perspective, including losing both Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the season, plus the Jonathan Kuminga drama over the first half of the season and Kristaps Porzingis and Curry missing large chunks of the second half.
“I’m not sure they even win the 9-10 game, let alone both,” a West scout said. "It’s one thing when Steph gets it going at home and he’s got that crowd roaring behind him. That’s a real thing.
“It’s different when they’re on the road and he’s doing it somewhere else. That same factor just isn’t there.”
Windhorst: So much of the attention on the Warriors is naturally on Curry, a game changer in every way. But the Warriors’ defense has really struggled coming down the stretch as Steve Kerr has managed injuries.
“Our analytics people will tell me that 3-point shooting often comes down to luck, and it’s just a matter of the quality of the shot,” a West scout said. “Well, the Warriors sure as hell must be having some terrible luck, because the last few times I’ve watched them they’re getting killed on corner 3s.”
The numbers, horrifyingly for Golden State, back that up. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are giving up a league-worst 46% shooting percentage on corner 3-pointers and a jaw-dropping 57% on right corner 3s. But it’s also bad inside, as opponents are shooting 71% in the restricted area over the past two months, fifth worst in the league.
It’s difficult to look at the Warriors’ current form and argue they’re primed for any sort of run.
By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, via ESPN