By The Ringer Staff / The Ringer, 2026-10-21 20:23:18
Getty Images/The Ringer制图
崭新的NBA赛季正式打响，这意味着又到了展现我们看家本领的时候：对那些六个月后才见分晓的事情，做出极度自信的预测。
谁将捧起常规赛MVP奖杯？哪位新秀能从这届天赋爆棚的选秀中脱颖而出？除了维克托·文班亚马之外，还有谁能染指最佳防守球员？（剧透一下：没别人了。不好意思，我们甚至不该问这个问题。）
我们邀请了The Ringer的NBA报道团队，对联盟最重要的个人奖项得主进行预测。鉴于只挑显而易见的热门实在缺乏乐趣，我们在MVP争夺战中加入了一点巧思：每位作者必须给出一个“理智之选”和一个“偏执之选”。有人选择稳妥下注，有人则彻底放飞自我。
以下是我们对2026-27赛季NBA各项大奖的预测。
常规赛最有价值球员（理智之选与偏执之选）
Rob Mahoney： 理智之选：维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，偏执之选：斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)
在MVP的探讨中（以及更广泛的超级巨星评价中），我们对防守往往会适度放宽要求。他们守住了自己的位置！他们拿出了积极性！看看他们做出的那些细微贡献！ 考虑到MVP级别的球员通常要在进攻端挑起万钧重担，这种宽容显得体贴却也合理。没有超级巨星能无所不能——但文班已经极为接近。在可预见的未来，他都是最佳防守球员毫无悬念的大热门，同时又是联盟顶级强队中最无可替代的进攻核心，这两点相结合，让他的候选资格坚不可摧。奇怪的是，到本赛季结束时，斯科蒂·巴恩斯同样能拿出一套类似的论据。我们曾在一期Group Chat播客中对巴恩斯赞不绝口，探讨他是否已经是全联盟最强二当家。或许他还不是——因为到了赛季末，他可能会彻底超越科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)。巴恩斯如今已是世界顶级的防守大闸与进攻端无所不能的运转中枢，他在2026年季后赛登场的每一秒都仿佛迸发着无限潜能。巴恩斯体内还蕴藏着一次全新的飞跃，那足以让他跻身这项运动的最顶级行列。
J. Kyle Mann： 理智之选：维克托·文班亚马，偏执之选：科怀·伦纳德
在看完他的新秀赛季后，我曾认为文班真有机会在22岁时向德里克·罗斯 (Derrick Rose) 发起冲击，成为联盟历史上最年轻的MVP。（勒布朗当年本该赢下那座MVP，但那话题我们改天再聊。）如今他虽已错过了那项纪录的时间节点，但关于文班是“世界最佳球员”的论调，在2026年初就已完全站得住脚。在最大的舞台上吸取了刻骨铭心的教训之后，开启新赛季的他，将化身为一名身经百战且满腔怒火的球场统治者——而在评选投票时，他仍不过23岁而已。
去限制他的冲板，想方设法让他作为掩护下顺者时远离篮筐，或者期盼他安于平庸的出手选择（如果不灵，就祈祷他投不进），这已经是一大难题——但这甚至还没触及面对他得分时那座百面魔方般的噩梦。我冒着被雷劈的风险，因为在历史地位的讨论中这已涉嫌冒犯神明，但在NBA历史上，仅有三个赛季出现过有球员在同一年包揽最佳防守球员与MVP——迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 在1987-88赛季达成，哈基姆·奥拉朱旺 (Hakeem Olajuwon) 在1993-94赛季达成，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 则在2019-20赛季获此殊荣。在这个年纪，文班就已是全世界最顶级的防守防空塔：2025-26赛季，全联盟有32名球员作为挡拆防守者防守了超过1000次持球挡拆，文班不仅是其中最能遏制效率的铁闸，更是唯一一位在这些防守回合中每回合失分低于1分的球员。整个联盟的主帅们就像小说《挽救计划》里的科学家团队一样，绞尽脑汁试图攻克这个关乎每个人生死存亡的难题。
我在这里的偏执之选是伦纳德。我知道，我知道，我知道。别拿手指戳我！（我知道他得先出场打球才行。）但在“飓风巴勃罗”造成的满目疮痍中，人们似乎有点遗忘了：丹尼斯舅舅的这位外甥在上赛季的表现好得不可思议，不仅成功跨过了65场门槛，还在进攻端几乎以一己之力扛起了一支赢下42场的快船队。上赛季，他绝对处在联盟最强全能得分手的讨论范围之内——在球场的每一个角落（毫不夸张）、用基本上所有能用的进攻模式都展现出毁灭级的杀伤力。他在挡拆中摧毁对手防线，杀入内线时依然是一头野兽，单挑时是令人胆寒的杀器，打无球时也同样高效致命。我怀疑这能否成真，但不可思议的是，伦纳德的状态依然处于巅峰。
Michael Pina： 理智之选：维克托·文班亚马，偏执之选：尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)
在这个问题上，我认为没有其他答案。只要他能出战至少65场比赛，文班就将是这个星球上最顶级的防守者，以及一支争冠强队的头号得分手——当他在场与否，这支球队的表现有着天壤之别。他技术的一切细节都会比上赛季更加精炼且先进，而正是上赛季他的巨大飞跃，拉开了NBA篮球新纪元的序幕。没有任何球员能在攻防两端的回合中像文班亚马这样拥有遮天蔽日的绝对统治力。只要他的三分命中率略微抬头、策应组织有所精进，再加上圣安东尼奥角色球员的成长能为他创造更轻松的得分良机，这将是一个板上钉钉的选择。
至于我的偏执之选，我挑了约基奇。我认为他是当今联盟最好的球员，是历史最佳传球手，只要他想，他能相对轻松地斩获场均30分的三双数据。他的价值毋庸置疑，而本赛季他将肩负起前所未有的重任。这恰恰是我将他选为偏执之选的原因：投票者往往会对战绩未处于联盟顶峰行列的球队核心不屑一顾。这虽非铁律，但如果丹佛掘金只能在西部第五或第六种子的边缘挣扎，那么约基奇攀登第四座MVP奖杯的险峻之路将变得无比泥泞。
Howard Beck： 理智之选：维克托·文班亚马，偏执之选：扬尼斯·阿德托昆博
文班将满足所有的核心评判标准：我们心知肚明他将在攻防两端统治比赛。我们清楚马刺会是联盟中最优秀的球队之一。我们也可以相当有把握地预测，上赛季在MVP投票中名列第三的他，本赛季的表现只会百尺竿头更进一步。因为关于文班，如果我们总结出了一件事，那就是这个家伙是发自内心地在乎胜负。他渴望成为历史级别的伟人。他渴望在当下赢下一颗总冠军戒指。异于常人的身材与技术固然关键，但他那份求胜心则更为致命。总决赛的失利像倒刺般扎心，他绝不会缺少前行的动力。或许他的数据无法与卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 或谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的华丽相媲美，但他在防守端的影响力完全能够弥补在得分和助攻上的差距。
考虑到热火队在组织策应、阵容深度以及后场爆发力方面的匮乏，我对于他们能否在本赛季的东部成为真正的争冠豪强持怀疑态度。如果迈阿密拿不到50胜，阿德托昆博很难捧起他的第三座MVP奖杯（也是自2020年以来的第一座）。但阿德托昆博能否交出诸如30分+10个篮板+6次助攻这样符合MVP标准的数据单？当然可以。他和巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 能否将热火打造成防守前五的铁血之师？毫无疑问。埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra) 神奇的战术调度能否将热火调教成一支令人惊艳的黑马强队——顺带将阿德托昆博推上真正的MVP候选人之位？完全有可能！
Danny Chau： 理智之选：维克托·文班亚马，偏执之选：卢卡·东契奇
只要文班的确正处于冲击GOAT的历史轨迹上，只要身体保持健康，那么在未来的至少十年里，他都是最稳妥明智的抉择。作为参照，勒布朗·詹姆斯从21岁到33岁的连续13个赛季里，在MVP投票中都名列前五。在可预见的未来把文班亚马的名字直接填上去，完全是顺理成章的事。这位年轻领袖带领着全联盟最年轻的核心阵容之一打出了一次出人意料的总决赛之旅；他已被视作这项运动有史以来最伟大的防守者之一；而且，在他几乎全凭直觉而非后天经验打球的情况下，场均就已经能砍下25分。当一位天赋满溢、武器库塞满各种银河级技能的神童真正领悟了登顶所需的精神与经验，会发生什么？这正是我们即将在新赛季见证的可能。
文班之外的人选中，我会挑东契奇。我们已经有几个赛季没见到东契奇处于战力全开的巅峰期，也没见到一套完全契合他进攻逻辑的理想阵容了。如今湖人队正是在这套框架下完成了重组，而且近来关于东契奇体型的担忧也已大大减少。东契奇目前所处的环境，正是我们多年来一直遐想的完美环境。在沉寂了几个赛季之后，东契奇处在一个极佳的跳板上，足以重回“世界最佳球员”的论剑之巅。
Logan Murdock： 理智之选：维克托·文班亚马，偏执之选：安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)
如今，所有赞誉之词对于文班而言都是唾手可得。在这个年纪，他拿下的总得分已经超过了NBA历史上的任何球员。在他短暂的职业生涯中，他已经将一座最佳防守球员奖杯、几次最佳阵容与最佳防守阵容一阵荣誉、以及三届全明星入场券收入囊中。
现在，该是通过打出一个历史级赛季，将自己与贾巴尔、张伯伦和奥拉朱旺等传奇比肩的时刻了。所有成功的原料都在他这一边：年轻的资本、总决赛失利的铭心刺痛，以及马刺全队潜在的、誓要打脸全世界的复仇赛季。尽管想来有些不可思议，但文班已经在追赶历史长河中的传奇背影了，而他的首座MVP奖杯，将正式开启那段许诺给他的通往不朽的封神之路。
从另一方面来看，若是安东尼·爱德华兹加冕MVP，过程无疑会有趣得多。在过去的三个赛季中，他带领着人员配置各异的森林狼队，打出了本不属于他们高度的惊人战绩。外界总是热衷于讨论爱德华兹那些幽默的金句、赛后发布会上的傲气，以及他那些为社交网络而生的吸睛做派，但掩藏在这一切表象之下的，是一位能凝聚全队、对胜利充满极度渴望、真正矢志成为世界第一的狠角色。如果他能在维持每晚那些惊为天人的全能数据的同时，率领这支焕然一新的森林狼高歌猛进，那么MVP奖杯将触手可及。
Matt Dollinger： 理智之选：谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，偏执之选：杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)
NBA历史上只有拉里·伯德 (Larry Bird)、比尔·拉塞尔 (Bill Russell) 和威尔特·张伯伦 (Wilt Chamberlain) 曾达成过常规赛MVP三连庄的伟业。勒布朗没有，魔术师没有，连迈克尔·乔丹也没能做到。因此，评委们若要连续第三年将MVP颁给吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，他必须打出一个真正超越时代的超凡赛季。然而关键在于，这极有可能会发生。亚历山大那不可思议的得分能力与俄城极高的战力下限，让他几乎稳居前三。要想再次跨越这道终极门槛，他大概需要在斩获得分王的同时，打出生涯最高的技术效率……而这基本上就是他上赛季做到的事情，差距仅在小数点后几位而已。审美疲劳确实客观存在，但俄克拉荷马城在季后赛的出局以及休赛期的阵容微调，可能会激发亚历山大迎来更为致命的二次爆发。28岁的SGA正处于黄金巅峰期的正中心。顺便提一句，勒布朗和乔丹也是在28岁那年，实现了单赛季包揽MVP与总冠军的壮举。
但是，如果投票评委们感到厌倦（我们确实容易审美疲劳），而俄克拉荷马城显得缺乏新鲜感（它注定会如此），那么我很看好塔图姆向该奖项发起冲击，届时凯尔特人将整季在战绩榜上一骑绝尘。上赛季当杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 获得独挑大梁的机会时，波士顿展现出了令人赞叹的统治力……我猜塔图姆这个夏天一定会憋足了劲，向世人证明布拉德·史蒂文斯 (Brad Stevens) 留下他是绝对正确的选择。对于青睐赛季叙事的投票者而言，塔图姆潜在的故事线可以说踩中了所有的爽点。
最快进步球员
Chau： 凯尔·韦尔 (Kel’el Ware)。我的乐观预期早已有迹可循，而逻辑其实很简单。韦尔是一名技术极其娴熟、兼具空间拉开能力与护筐威慑的大个子，是当代篮球界最受追捧的原型之一。在密尔沃基，他将获得稳定的出场跑道，而在迈阿密，在埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉严苛的要求下，这种机会并不总能得到保障。只要韦尔获得稳定出场时间时的单位时间输出延续他生涯以来的水准，那么到了颁奖季，他交出的数据单将让他的候选资格无可辩驳。
Murdock： 拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball)。这位25岁的后卫在明尼苏达迎来了难得的重塑良机。鲍尔不可能在一支附加赛边缘球队靠刷数据拿下这个奖项。但在明尼苏达，他迎来了职业生涯迄今为赢球篮球做出贡献的最佳契机。鲍尔的职业生涯此前一直被伤病、以及（往往）空洞的数据和梅克伦堡县道路上的超速违章所定义。但转会至明尼苏达为鲍尔搭建了一个充满竞争悬念的大舞台，他能在一支真正具备争冠追求的球队中，与一位互补性极强的时代级天才并肩作战，尽情施展他那不可思议的进攻才华。没人能打包票这趟旅程将走向何方，但见证一个进化蜕变后的鲍尔，绝对会是一场绝妙的视觉盛宴。
Beck： 卡森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace)。先插一句：季前奖项预测从定义上讲就是一种半理性的猜测。而最快进步球员历来是其中最难预测的一个。我们根本无法确知一名球员在休赛期挥洒了多少汗水，更不知道这些苦练在正赛开打后能否兑现为红利。但是，将要填补吕冈茨·多尔特 (Lu Dort) 离队空缺的华莱士，看起来完全做好了在俄城迎来爆发赛季的准备。他的防守已经位列顶尖，而在雷霆球星身边承担更多的进攻重任（以及出场时间），只会进一步催化他的得分与组织能力。
Pina： 华莱士。他两年前场均8.4分，去年场均8.6分。如今，他已被内定为一支争冠热门球队的专职首发，而这支球队的出手权可能会稍加分散。他打出过多次高光表现，证明自己绝不仅仅是一个定点投手，或是仅靠一双快手完成抢断下快攻的猎鹰。华莱士持球推进极快，能自如变速变向，拥有出色的球场洞察力。雷霆队板凳席上坐着阿贾伊·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 和贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 提供火力，更不用说首发五虎里的SGA、J-Dub和切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 了，但为了雷霆进攻体系的长远利益，华莱士配得上获得更多支配球权的决策机会。他下个月才年满23岁，依然拥有巨大的成长空间。如果这种成长仅仅体现为将场均得分提升至13到15分，这项大奖就极有可能归属于他。
Mahoney： 阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)。上赛季休斯敦的伤病潮迫使阿门承担起了一定程度上他尚未驾驭自如的控球任务。但随着弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 的伤愈归队（以及休斯敦其他主力的复出与新援加入），汤普森将被彻底激活，打出最顶尖、最富摧毁力的表现。阿门算不上一个传统控卫，或许永远也不会是。无论如何，一个更自由奔放的角色都更适合他。让他在转换进攻中化身奔袭梦魇，让他在弱侧成为致命潜伏者，让他化身撕裂对手防线、令对方绝望的进攻爆点。汤普森现在的定位让他能少操心那些刻板的球场调度，把全部精力投入到他所擅长的其他所有事情上。
Murdock： 佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard)。杰伦·布朗的离开为普里查德提供了更多的开火权，他将在马祖拉倡导的“人人有球投”的超远火力网体系中，提供球队急需的进攻杀伤力。如果发挥得当，普里查德有望以压倒性优势获评该奖。
Dollinger： 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)。我对迪伦·哈珀的看好程度，甚至到了每当我开口谈论他时都显得有点痴人说梦的地步。所以我在这尽量克制一点。到了赛季结束时，我认为毫无疑问他会成为马刺队的第二好球员。能与文班亚马并肩作战本就是天赐良机，而哈珀与文班的搭档更是梦幻般的绝配。
Mann： 贝勒·沙伊尔曼 (Baylor Scheierman)。我对沙伊尔曼的痴迷由来已久且始终如一，因此能在一份NBA奖项预测问卷中挑中他的名字，令我无比畅快。在研究选秀时，最让人享受的“淘金”乐趣之一（这大概因人而异），就是在遗珠中寻找璞玉。方法有很多，但核心途径是通过翻阅比赛统计和高阶数据筛选，期盼能挖掘出隐藏的宝石。在转战克雷顿大学之前，沙伊尔曼在巅峰联盟里简直就是篮球界的阿德里安·维特（《守望者》中的法老王），无论是在外形上（戴着那标志性的紫色发带）还是在打球的灵动性上——他有着不可思议的拔群投射，他的传球精妙绝伦，而且他在篮板端是一头十足的猛兽，此外还有数不尽的闪光点。自从进入联盟后，他在凯尔特人被定型为一名角色球员，但那些天赋从未泯灭。它们只是在静候属于自己的时刻，而我预感那个时刻已经到来了。他将成为波士顿填补杰伦·布朗出场时间空白的拼图之一，但我相信，他将在这支波士顿军团中扮演至关重要的角色。
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年度最佳新秀
Chau： 卡姆·布泽尔 (Cam Boozer)。这可能会成为历史上竞争最激烈的最佳新秀争夺战之一；我的早期选票会投给布泽尔，他在场时似乎已经参与到了灰熊队每一个战术回合中。作为低位球员，他是策应轴心；作为挡拆人，他是双向皆宜的战术利器；同时作为冲击禁区的重锤，他那坚如磐石的身板完全不负期待，让主帅托马斯·伊萨洛 (Tuomas Iisalo) 围绕他设计了充沛的下坡突破机会。灰熊目前的进攻体系行云流水，而他们已经放心地将指挥权交到了这位19岁新秀的手中。这份担子沉重得令人咋舌；而布泽尔却展现出了罕见的从容自如。
Pina： 达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)。他在冲击NBA防线时展现出的眼花缭乱的手段，理应让他成为该奖项毋庸置疑的最大热门。在能够拉开空间的富有创造力的进攻体系中，在一群射手和拥有策应能力的大个子包围下，他将以适中的效率掠下惊人的得分。爵士队也将具备不俗的竞争力，彼得森将直接影响那些关键比赛的胜负走向。尽管这届新秀竞争极其惨烈，但其他人仍旧很难在个人数据与带队赢球的综合影响力上压过彼得森。
Mann： 大流士·阿卡夫 (Darius Acuff Jr.)。按常理推断，在这样一个现象级的新秀大年里，我们理应看到一大批极具竞争力的最佳新秀候选人。但正如所有奖项评选一样，归根结底这依然取决于机会多寡。达林·彼得森与AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 很可能会打出极其惊艳的新秀赛季，但由于他们必须与成名的NBA球星共享战术主导权，其产出难免会被压缩。在吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 离开勇士轮换阵容的背景下，全面得令人惊叹的亚克塞尔·兰德堡 (Yaxel Lendeborg) 是否有机会大显身手，在攻防两端交出亮眼的数据？我认为完全存在这种可能。
但此时此刻，我们的NBA主编马特·多林格正拿弹簧折叠刀（编辑手头总是揣着折叠刀）架在我脖子上逼稿，所以我还是给出一个详尽具体的预测吧。我认为这最终将演变成两种截然不同的球员风格之间的白热化竞争，两人背后都站着发声欲望极强、且在键盘辩论上有着悠久撕扯史的篮球阵营。德马尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 和拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook) 的离开，让球权顺理成章地落入了阿卡夫极其稳健且充满自信的手中，他将斩获海量得分并送出颇具含金量的助攻总数。国王队本赛季或许走不了太远，但阿卡夫此前可从未与多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis) 这种级别的挡拆掩护者搭档过，季前赛里你就能看到他有多么享受掩护所创造出的横向摆脱空间。
他的主要竞争对手将是卡姆·布泽尔，我认为布泽尔最终会捧起奖杯。对任何对手来说，布泽尔在场上都沉稳得令人绝望。他就像一台“永远做出正确战术选择”的精密机器，几乎能为孟菲斯的方方面面带来提升。他将是孟菲斯战术运转的绝对中枢，我认为他比任何其他新秀都更能带动球队赢球——其赢球影响力在近些年的新秀中甚至数一数二。然而，有时你已经能提前预见那些陈词滥调的争吵了：届时很可能会是一场舆论大混战，布泽尔的拥趸们会对阿卡夫的得分效率和防守短板吹毛求疵；而阿卡夫的信徒们则会对布泽尔攻防两端那些细致入微（但看似无聊）的表现嗤之以鼻，并指责布泽尔肩负的球队重担远不及他们捧在手心的头号宠儿。这种争论虽谈不上亘古未有，但绝对是自博客时代篮球媒体诞生起就代代相传的老调重弹了。平心而论，这套旋律唱起来略显拗口——安吉拉·兰斯伯里肯定唱不来——但灰熊球迷到时定会乐此不疲地放声高歌。
Mahoney： 凯莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson)。一名一年级球员要想当选年度最佳新秀，不仅需要过硬的数据和声誉，还需要一个极具感染力的故事。而如果威尔逊能带领公牛队重拾眼球与话题——在经历这支球队多年来在平庸中原地打转的泥潭后，这绝对是了不起的壮举——那么他将拥有一个极具说服力的叙事。威尔逊的球风与那种死气沉沉的平庸格格不入。他会在转换进攻中上演令人瞠目结舌的神作，他能在外线冷不丁大放异彩，他甚至能依靠那份极具观赏性的顶级爆发力破坏对手战术，让防守变得极具趣味。威尔逊在新赛季将拥有所有的施展空间来证明自己是本届最强新秀，不仅如此，他的打球方式更能牢牢俘获评委们的选票。
Murdock： 凯莱布·威尔逊。凯莱布将在进攻端分得最大的球权蛋糕；这项大奖几乎非他莫属。
Beck： 卡姆·布泽尔。凭借直觉驱动的组织能力与全能的技术体系，他将在后莫兰特时代的第一年为灰熊队带来他们最迫切需要的东西：可靠性。布泽尔的五佳球集锦或许不如彼得森或迪班萨那般绚烂夺目，但他获得的机会极有可能比这两位竞逐者更加稳定，因为那两位新秀身边都站着早已成名的全明星球星。彼得森需要在劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 和基扬特·乔治 (Keyonte George) 身边争夺开火权；迪班萨则必须在特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 和安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 的夹缝中寻觅出手空间。而布泽尔从揭幕战第一天起，就将是灰熊队的不二进攻发起点。
Dollinger： 卡姆·布泽尔。前提是伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 严格来说不算新秀的话（不好意思，一位破防的步行者球迷在此插话）。对于灰熊来说，他是最完美的拼图延续与未来篇章。围绕这届天赋炸裂的新秀群体的长期上限，我们可以争论不休，但对于孟菲斯这座迫切渴望救世主的城市而言，布泽尔是一位即插即用的建队基石。对于一位十几岁的年轻人来说，常规的成长阵痛在所难免，但他拥有一进联盟就成为球星的天赋与成熟度。
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年度最佳防守球员
[编者注：我的锅，我们根本没必要列这个奖。]
Beck： 文班亚马。我是说，这家伙上赛季是全票当选的，所以他哪怕丢掉30张第一选票也依然能以压倒性优势胜出。短期之内，他绝不可能让出这顶王冠。
Pina： 文班亚马。我觉得这完全不需要过多解释。直接复制粘贴，管用未来十年。
Mann： 文班亚马。他是我亲眼所见过的防守破坏力最强的球员。更绝的是，这句话听上去如此掷地有声，但在如今的联盟里，这却早已成了最不言自明、最没悬念的大实话。他就是这般天赋异禀，答案就是这般显而易见。
Dollinger： 文班亚马。不过如果鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 能够抵消掉拉梅洛带来的防守漏洞，倒也配得上作为第五座DPOY的候选人进入讨论。
Mahoney： 文班亚马。行行好，还用问吗。
Murdock： 文班亚马。到2030年，联盟说不定都直接用他的名字来命名这座奖杯了。
Chau： 维克托·文班亚马。自23年开启，直到地老天荒。
年度最佳第六人
Beck： 德马尔·德罗赞。我们向来偏爱砍分如麻的第六人！而德罗赞作为中距离大师，依然兼具充沛的产出与冷酷的高效（上赛季在萨克拉门托场均贡献18分）。掘金队急需替补席上的自主得分与组织能力，因此他将获得大把的出场时间。尽管已经37岁高龄，但德罗赞在过去五个赛季里每个赛季都出战了至少74场比赛，耐久度惊人。
（我本来很想在这里选迪伦·哈珀，但我怀疑马刺不可能整季都压着他不给首发。如果真是那样的话……那么大家不妨欢迎一下最佳第六人候选人——达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)！）
Chau： 里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)。弗雷德·范弗利特的回归，无论受前十字韧带伤势影响状态下滑多少，对上赛季急缺进攻指挥官的火箭队来说都是巨大的利好。新建立的战术秩序将让谢泼德彻底卸下包袱，蜕变为那台肆无忌惮的三分重炮。谢泼德在超过2000分钟的常规赛出场时间里，每百回合出手三分超过13次；在联盟历史上，能在多个赛季达成这一壮举的球员只有10人。谢泼德本就已是不可思议的顶级神射手，但如果他在保持现有出手体量的同时，哪怕进攻效率再稍微提升一档，他完全有望复制佩顿·普里查德在2024-25赛季那段逆袭封神的励志故事。
Pina： 德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)。这是一个出人意料的人选，但我的推论是建立在自己一个可能并不准确的假设上：圣安东尼奥最终的常态首发五虎将是达龙·福克斯、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)、迪伦·哈珀、朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 以及维克托·文班亚马。（马刺主帅米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 表示这套阵容将在揭幕战首发出场！）如果这一假设成真，瓦塞尔将在板凳席上大杀四方，尽情展现他作为全能得分手的本色。马刺队内没有任何人比瓦塞尔做出了更多的牺牲，他大幅压缩了自己的角色以成全福克斯、卡斯尔和哈珀。上赛季他的球权占有率仅为10.4%，与2024-25赛季的17.2%相去甚远。为了实现不同阵容威力的最大化，并平衡这套深厚到夸张的轮换体系，让瓦塞尔作为板凳席上的进攻爆破手绝对合情合理。
Mahoney： 阿贾伊·米切尔。米切尔在各个方面都完全符合最佳第六人的模板：他在数据栏上存在感十足，他在场上的冲击力显而易见，他在雷霆替补席上的发挥是如此出色，以至于经常留在场上打收尾阶段。对于这个奖项而言，他效力于一支顶级豪强的事实虽非决定性因素，但也绝无坏处；如果非要说有什么影响的话，那就是外界对雷霆阵容深度的交口称赞，只会让米切尔这位板凳旗手的光芒更加耀眼。
Dollinger： 佩顿·普里查德。听到我这么说，我的同事们可能会朝我砸东西，但凯尔特人本赛季确实是将队内第二好的球员按在了替补席上。话又说回来，这正是会让主帅乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 兴奋到抓狂的战术优势。普里查德将领跑全联盟替补得分榜，并带领全联盟最顶尖的第二阵容摧城拔寨。
Mann： 迪伦·哈珀。作为一名完全有资格成为巨星培养计划绝对基石的二年级生，哈珀绝非你的常规第六人人选。（他也可能会被推上首发，从而让我这篇分析沦为废话。）在马刺，他的身边围绕着这群天才队友，他正在将自己的使用率挥洒在那些对他而言甚至有点“大材小用”的球场情境中。哈珀在这一无球呼应的角色中表现出色——他在季后赛中的接球即投三分命中率达到了34.5%。想要遏制他这种级别的突破手本就困难重重，而当他在文班亚马、福克斯和卡斯尔等人的牵制下打球，面对前方开阔的扑防防线接球启动时，防守哈珀就如同穿着人字拖试图空手去生擒一头抹了摩丝的野牛。面对补防轮转，他的速度太快，力量太霸道。随着他在现有展现出的技术基础上进一步延展，并尝试更多的持球发起机会，他的数据产出将极其惊人。如果在接下来的一个赛季里马刺的轮换重叠问题依旧没有改变，我甚至能预见到他将踏上一条宛若科比式的轨迹——哪怕不在自己的球队打首发，也能向全明星席位发起强有力的冲击。这种盛况自1998年以来还从未发生过，但我依然不会排除这种可能。
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年度最佳教练
Pina： JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick)。在大概20位候选人的大名单中，我选择雷迪克。优秀的教练有很多，但他们中的许多人所执教的球队，早已背负着休赛期重磅运作带来的极高期望。洛杉矶湖人队固然天赋满满，但他们的处境也恰好能够以一种“将功劳完全归于主帅”的方式去超出外界预期。如果76人、森林狼、猛龙或热火打出了不可思议的赛季，评委们会在多大程度上将成功归功于新加盟的超级巨星？步行者、凯尔特人和火箭同样面临这个问题。湖人队虽然会面对铺天盖地的质疑，但如果最终一切发展得超出预期，雷迪克有相当大的机会收获海量的赞誉。
Beck： 达尔科·拉亚科维奇 (Darko Rajakovic)。确有这种可能（正如扎克·洛维 在我们的播客中 聊到的那样），猛龙队飞跃的赞誉最终可能会全部落在科怀·伦纳德头上，而不是主帅身上。但在细心的观察者眼中，这种突破理应是一场厚积薄发的水到渠成。在拉亚科维奇麾下，猛龙每个赛季的胜场都在递增——从2023-24赛季的25胜跃升至上赛季的46胜——同时带领一套相对年轻的阵容一跃成为全联盟顶尖的防守强队。斯科蒂·巴恩斯已经蜕变为了全明星和最佳防守球员候选人，而在他身边缺乏真正巨星助阵的情况下，猛龙俨然已成为一股不可忽视的战力。要说有什么不公的话，那就是拉亚科维奇的执教能力早就该获得嘉奖了。只要猛龙跨过50胜的大关，这座奖杯非他莫属。
Mann： 威尔·哈迪 (Will Hardy)。我的推测是，终于彻底解脱束缚的哈迪——不再需要为了摆烂大局而妥协阵容——在审视西部其他对手时，眼神大概就像汉尼拔·莱克特审视嘲弄他的齐尔顿医生一样。等我挣脱这套拘束衣的那一刻，我可要对你们下狠手了。 我猜这支爵士队在防守领防端可能会遭遇一些麻烦，这或许会对他们那些酷爱封盖的内线产生不良的连锁反应，但他们在进攻端的底牌实在太诱人了。毫不夸张地说，他们可能坐拥全联盟1到5号位投射最顶尖的首发阵容，而且运动天赋丝毫不落下风。一想到将这套阵容武器化的无限可能，哈迪在场边恐怕都要高兴得像音乐剧演员一样蹦跳着前进了。狂欢的号角吹响了。
Chau： 哈迪。他在2022年受聘于犹他爵士时是全联盟最年轻的主帅，如今他也才38岁。而在哈迪的主帅生涯中，这是他第一次率领一支真正对季后赛抱有野心的球队。在经历了多年用稀烂战绩做掩护、大胆试验并完善其非传统战术体系的蛰伏期之后，是时候检验爵士队的耐受力成果了。爵士在多个位置上突然涌现出过剩的得分天赋，同时手握令人垂涎的防守中枢基石。小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 带来了DPOY级别的协防扫荡多样性；榜眼秀达林·彼得森则完全可以专注于成为联盟最顶级的外线领防锁闸，从而从容适应NBA的比赛强度。犹他已经备齐了在西部掀起风浪的所有筹码。如果预想成真，将哈迪推上最佳教练宝座将是顺理成章的选择。
Matt Dollinger： 里克·卡莱尔 (Rick Carlisle)。步行者本赛季的胜场可能会比上赛季惨淡的19胜多出整整30到40场。从某种角度来看，选他简直是明目张胆地作弊。泰雷斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 伤缺后的满血回归，本不应该成为左右最佳教练归属的杠杆。但另一方面，印第安纳整座俱乐部从上到下，至今仍未完全走出2025年NBA总决赛抢七以极其惨烈的方式落败的巨大创伤。那种刺痛挥之不去。上赛季看步行者的比赛，隔着屏幕都能感受到那种让人窒息的幽灵阵痛。卡莱尔理应因在这场惨烈浩劫中维系住了步行者的风骨而受到嘉奖。如果印第安纳在本赛季一飞冲天，那绝对归功于他在哈利伯顿受伤后所付出的一切心血。
Murdock： 乔·马祖拉。上赛季，马祖拉在与J.B.比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff) 的胶着争夺中险胜捧得此奖，当时他硬是将一支靠胶带和强力胶勉强粘在一起的残阵带出了奇迹。如今，随着杰伦·布朗转投费城，马祖拉可以在波士顿的天选之子杰森·塔图姆身边，重现这一套轻车熟路的赢球公式。
Mahoney： 哈迪。终于能看到哈迪不必再被绑住一只手去执教了，这着实令人欣慰。爵士已经做好了迈向下一阶段的准备——这意味着哈迪多年来潜心打造的那些充满智慧、强调高频跑动的进攻精髓终于能大放异彩，而这在很大程度上，是因为犹他终于拥有了足够多能跑明白战术的真正NBA级战力。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：2026-27 NBA Awards Predictions: Smart and Sicko MVP Picks
2026-27 NBA Awards Predictions: Smart and Sicko MVP Picks
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
A new NBA season is officially here, which means it’s time to do what we do best: make wildlyconfidentpredictions about things that won’t be decided for another six months.
Who will take home MVP? Which rookie will emerge from a loaded draft class? And can anyone not named Victor Wembanyama win Defensive Player of the Year? (Spoiler: Nope. Sorry for even asking.)
We asked The Ringer*’s NBA staff to predict the winners of the league’s biggest individual awards. And because picking the obvious favorites is no fun, we added a twist for the MVP race: Each writer had to make one smart pick and one sicko pick. Some played it safe. Others got a little carried away.*
Here are our predictions for the 2026-27 NBA awards.
Most Valuable Player (Smart and Sicko)
Rob Mahoney: Smart: Victor Wembanyama, Sicko: Scottie Barnes
When it comes to the MVP debate (and superstars more broadly), we tend to grade defense on a curve. They hold down their spot! They put in effort! Look at all the little things they bring to the table! It’s cute but fair, given the enormous responsibilities MVP-caliber players tend to shoulder on offense. No star can do everything—but Wemby comes close. The fact that he’s the hands-down favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year for the foreseeable future and the most important offensive player on one of the best teams in the league makes for a pretty airtight candidacy. And weirdly enough, a similar case could be made by the end of this season for Scottie Barnes. We raved about Barnes on an episode of Group Chat as we wondered whether he was the best no. 2 option in the league. Maybe he’s not—because by the end of the season he’ll overtake Kawhi Leonard entirely. Barnes is already an all-world defender and a do-it-all hub on offense, and every second he played in the 2026 playoffs seemed to burst with possibility. There’s another leap in Barnes, and it could put him among the best players in the sport.
J. Kyle Mann: Smart: Victor Wembanyama, Sicko: Kawhi Leonard
After watching his rookie season, I thought there was a real chance that Wemby could challenge Derrick Rose for the youngest MVP win in league history at 22 years old. (LeBron should’ve won that MVP, but we’ll table that for another time.) He’s already missed that mark, but the argument for Wemby as the best player in the world really became legitimate by the beginning of 2026, and with him heading into this season having learned some harrowing lessons on the biggest possible stage, I think we’ll see an informed and infuriated player who’ll still be only 23 years old by the time the voting happens.
It’s one thing to slow his glass activity, to find a way to keep him away from the rim as a roller or hope that he’s being resigned in his shot selection, and if he’s not, pray that he’s not making them—but that doesn’t even cover the 100-sided Rubik’s Cube that comes with trying to score on him. I’m running the risk of being struck by lightning because we’re treading in blasphemous territory in terms of the all-time discussion, but there have been three seasons in NBA history when a player won both the Defensive Player of the Year and MVP awards—Michael Jordan did it in 1987-88, Hakeem Olajuwon did it in 1993-94, and Giannis Antetokounmpo did it in 2019-20. At this age, he’s already the most dominant defensive anchor in the world: 32 players in the NBA defended more than 1,000 ball screens as the screener defender in 2025-26, and Wembanyama was the most efficiency-stifling force and the only player to allow less than a point per possession on those actions. Coaches across the league were like the collective of scientists in Project Hail Mary trying to figure out how to solve this problem that concerns everyone.
My sicko pick here would be Kawhi. I know, I know, I know. Don’t point your finger at me! (I know he has to play.) But somewhat lost in all of the wreckage of Hurricane Pablo is the fact that Uncle Dennis’s nephew was unbelievably good last season and did manage to hit the 65-game mark, and he basically propped up a 42-win Clippers team by himself on offense. He was in the conversation for best all-around scorer in the league last season—devastating from literally everywhere (no exaggeration) and in essentially every mode possible. He wrecked defenses in the pick-and-roll, he’s still a monster getting to the rim, he’s an iso terror, and he’s just as effective playing off the ball. I doubt it’ll happen, but Kawhi is, inexplicably, as good as ever.
Michael Pina: Smart: Victor Wembanyama, Sicko: Nikola Jokic
I don’t see any other answer to this question. Assuming he plays at least 65 games, Wemby will be the best defender on the planet and the leading scorer on a title contender that’s significantly better when he’s on the floor than off. Everything about his game will be more refined and advanced than it was last season, when his massive leap ushered in a new era of NBA basketball. No individual looms over every possession on both sides of the ball quite like Victor, and, assuming his 3-point percentage ticks up a bit, his playmaking improves, and even easier opportunities present themselves in light of some growth out of San Antonio’s supporting cast, this will be an obvious choice.
For my sicko pick, I’m going with Jokic. I think he’s the best player in the league, the best passer of all time, and someone who could somewhat easily average a 30-point triple-double if doing so were his goal. His value is unquestionable, and this season, he’ll be tasked with more responsibility than ever. And that’s the reason I’ve got him down as my sicko pick: Voters tend to shrug aside players on teams that aren’t at or near the top of the standings. This isn’t a hard rule, but if the Denver Nuggets are barely clinging to the fifth or sixth seed, Jokic’s steep climb toward a fourth MVP will be slippery.
Howard Beck: Smart: Victor Wembanyama, Sicko: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Wemby is going to check all the key boxes: We know he’ll be dominant at both ends. We know the Spurs will be among the best teams in the league. And we can pretty confidently predict he’ll only improve on his performance last season, when he finished third in the balloting. Because if there’s one thing we’ve learned about Wemby, it’s that the dude genuinely cares. He wants to be an all-time great. He wants to win it all, now. The freakish size and skill set matter. His competitive drive matters more. And that loss in the Finals stung. He won’t lack for motivation. He probably won’t match the gaudy stats of, say, Luka Doncic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but his defensive impact should more than offset any gap in points and assists.
I’m skeptical that the Heat can be a legit force in the East this season, given their lack of playmaking, depth, and backcourt dynamism. If Miami can’t crack 50 wins, it’s hard to see Giannis taking his third MVP award (and first since 2020). But could Giannis put up an MVP-worthy line of, say, 30/10/6? Yes. Could he and Bam Adebayo turn the Heat into a top-five defense? Surely. Can Erik Spoelstra’s tactical wizardry turn the Heat into a surprise contender—and Giannis, thus, into a legit MVP candidate? Possible!
Danny Chau: Smart: Victor Wembanyama, Sicko: Luka Doncic
If Wemby is indeed on the potential GOAT trajectory, he will be the smart choice for at least the next 10 years, health permitting. For reference, LeBron James was a top-five MVP vote getter for 13 consecutive years, from his age-21 to age-33 seasons. It’s only natural to pencil in Wembanyama for the foreseeable future. This is a player who was the driving force behind a surprise Finals run from one of the youngest cores in the league, a player who already figures to be one of the greatest defenders the sport has ever seen and who is already a 25-points-a-game scorer despite playing almost exclusively with intuition rather than accumulated knowledge. What happens when a generational talent with all the tools in the galaxy internalizes what it takes to go all the way? That’s the season that’s potentially in store for us.
My non-Wemby pick would be Luka. It’s been a few seasons since we’ve seen Doncic at the height of his powers, with a team construction fully catered to his logical preferences. The Lakers have been retooled within that framework, and these days there aren’t nearly as many concerns about Doncic’s conditioning. Luka is in the exact situation that we’ve all wondered about for years. It’s been a few dormant seasons, but Doncic is in a great position to rejoin the best in the world discussions.
Logan Murdock: Smart: Victor Wembanyama, Sicko: Anthony Edwards
These days, every superlative is within reach for Wemby. He’s already scored more points than any other NBA player at this age. He’s already gobbled up a Defensive Player of the Year trophy, a few first-team offensive and defensive selections, and three All-Star appearances in his short NBA career.
Now, it’s time to cement himself among the greats like Kareem, Wilt, and Hakeem by having an all-time season. He has all of ingredients on his side: youth, an all-time disappointing Finals performance, and the potential for an all-time “fuck you” season from the Spurs. Although it’s weird to consider, Wemby is already chasing ghosts, and his first MVP will put him on the path to the immortality we were promised.
On the other hand, it would be soooo much more fun to see Anthony Edwards take the crown. Over the past three seasons, he’s taken a range of Timberwolves teams to heights they had no business reaching. So much is made of Edwards’s funny quotes, press conference hubris, and made-for-social award shows, but underneath that all is a galvanizing, winning player who is genuinely driven to be the best. If he can carry the new-look Wolves while maintaining his unworldly nightly stat lines, the award will be within reach.
Matt Dollinger: Smart: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Sicko: Jayson Tatum
Only Larry Bird, Bill Russell, and Wilt Chamberlain have ever won back-to-back-to-back MVPs. Not LeBron. Not Magic. Not even Michael. So it’s going to take a truly transcendent year for voters to award it to Shai for a third straight year. The thing is, it’ll probably happen. Shai’s otherworldly scoring prowess and OKC’s sky-high floor make him almost a lock to be top three. To get over the hump again, he’ll probably need to lead the league in scoring while averaging career highs in efficiency … which is essentially what he did last season, shy of a few decimal points. Voter fatigue is real, but Oklahoma City’s postseason exit and offseason shuffling could spawn a deadly second win for Shai. At 28 years old, SGA is in the heart of his prime. LeBron and Michael won MVP and a title when they were 28, too. Just saying.
But if voters get bored (we do) and Oklahoma City feels boring (it will), then I like Tatum to make a run at the award while the Celtics lead from the front all season. Boston looked pretty incredible last season when Jaylen Brown got his shot to be the Solo J … I’m guessing Tatum will be dead-set on proving Brad Stevens picked the right one this summer. For voters interested in narrative, Tatum’s potential story arc hits all the right beats.
Most Improved Player
Chau: Kel’el Ware. My optimism has been documented, but the case is simple. Ware is an abundantly skilled floor-spacing rim protector, one of the most coveted archetypes in basketball, with a runway for consistent playing time in Milwaukee that wasn’t always there under the exacting auspices of Erik Spoelstra in Miami. If Ware’s per-minute production remains as it has throughout his career when he has steadier minutes, he’ll produce numbers that will make for an undeniable campaign come awards season.
Murdock: LaMelo Ball. The 25-year-old has a rare chance for reinvention in Minnesota. LaMelo wasn’t going to win this award by putting up big stats on a play-in team. But in Minnesota he has his best chance yet to contribute to winning basketball. Ball’s career has been defined by injuries, (often) empty stats, and unsafe roads across Mecklenburg County. But the move to Minny provides Ball with the stage to display all of his incredible offensive gifts on a team with real stakes, alongside a generational talent he complements well. It’s anyone’s guess how this will go, but an improved Melo would be an awesome metamorphosis to watch.
Beck: Cason Wallace. Quick aside: Preseason awards predictions are, by definition, just semi-logical guesses. And MIP is annually the toughest one. We have no idea how much offseason work a player put in, or whether that work will pay dividends when the games begin. But Wallace, who will fill the void left by Lu Dort, certainly seems primed for a breakout season in OKC. His defense is already elite, and the added responsibility (and minutes) alongside the Thunder’s stars should only enhance his scoring and playmaking.
Pina: Wallace. He averaged 8.4 points per game two years ago and 8.6 points per game last year. Now he’s penciled in as a full-time starter on a championship contender that may have a few more shots to go around. He’s sustained stretches that show he’s so much more than a spot-up shooter or simply a hawk who creates fast-break opportunities with those quick hands. Wallace is fast with the ball, can change speeds and directions, and reads the floor well. The Thunder have Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain to score off the bench, let alone SGA, J-Dub, and Chet Holmgren in the starting five, but, to the benefit of OKC’s offense, Wallace deserves more chances to make decisions with the ball in his hands. He turns 23 next month and has plenty of room to grow. If that simply means upping his scoring output to 13-15 points per game, then this award could be his.
Mahoney: Amen Thompson. Houston’s injuries last season forced Thompson into a ballhandling role he wasn’t quite ready for, but getting Fred VanVleet back (among Houston’s other returns and additions) should weaponize Thompson to be his best, most devastating self. Thompson isn’t quite a point guard and maybe will never be. A more free-form role suits him better anyway. Let him be the threat in transition, the killer from the weak side, the explosion that a defense has no hope to contain. Thompson is set up now to focus less on the stuffy logistics of running a team and more on everything else.
Murdock: Payton Pritchard. Jaylen Brown’s exit provides even more scoring opportunities for Pritchard, who will provide a much-needed punch in Mazzulla’s equal-opportunity long-range assault offense. If he plays his cards right, Pritchard could win this in a landslide.
Dollinger: Dylan Harper. I believe in Dylan Harper so much that I sound foolish when I start talking about him. So I’ll try to stay grounded here. By the end of the season, I think it’ll be clear he’s the Spurs’ second-best player. We should all be so lucky as to play basketball with Wemby, but Harper is a true dream pairing.
Mann: Baylor Scheierman. My fascination with Scheierman is long-running and unwavering, so it brings me great joy to pick him in an NBA awards survey. In researching the draft, one of the more enjoyable crate-diving activities (depending on who you are, I guess) is the hunt for the overlooked. There are lots of ways to do that, but a main one is to thumb through box scores and stat filters in hopes of finding a hidden gem. Scheierman was the Adrian Veidt of the Summit League before bouncing to Creighton, both in appearance (with that purple headband) and in dynamism—he could shoot the ever-loving shit out of it, his passing was deft, and he was a menace on the glass, among many other superlatives. He’s scaled into a role player for the Celtics since joining the league, but those skills haven’t gone anywhere. They’re waiting for their moment, and I suspect that said moment has come. He’ll be a member of an aggregate looking to patch together the minutes that Jaylen Brown left behind, but I think we’ll see him become crucial to this Boston squad.
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images
Rookie of the Year
Chau: Cam Boozer. This could be one of the greatest ROY races in history; my early nod would go to Boozer, who already appears to be involved in every Grizzlies action while he’s on the floor. He’s been a distribution hub as a post player, a double-sided pick-and-roll agent, and an absolutely-as-promised boulder of a man that head coach Tuomas Iisalo has created downhill looks for as a driver. Memphis plays within a flow that it’s already tasked its 19-year-old rookie with managing. It’s an impressive burden; Boozer has handled it with rare grace.
Pina: Darryn Peterson. The myriad of ways in which he’s already able to attack NBA defenses should make him the prohibitive favorite to win this award. He’ll score a ton of points on moderate efficiency in a creative offensive system that can space the floor, surrounded by shooters and big men who can pass. The Jazz can be pretty competitive, too, playing meaningful games that Peterson helps decide. With all due respect to a crowded field, it’ll be hard for anyone to top Peterson’s numbers and winning impact.
Mann: Darius Acuff Jr. It stands to reason that, in a phenomenal draft class, we would see a lot of conceivably strong candidates for Rookie of the Year. But as with every award, at the end of the day it’s a question of opportunity. Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa will likely have terrific rookie seasons but see their output compressed by the fact that they are sharing primacy with established NBA players. Is there a world in which the absence of Jimmy Butler in the Warriors’ rotation will create an opportunity for the supremely well-rounded Yaxel Lendeborg to really stretch his legs and put up impressive numbers on both sides of the ball? I think there is.
But our NBA editor Matt Dollinger currently has a switchblade (editors carry switchblades) to my neck as I’m typing this, so I’ll make an actual detailed prediction. I think that this will come down to a heated race between two very different player archetypes who are backed by vocal subsections of the basketball community with a strong history of argument. The departure of DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook will put the ball in Acuff’s very capable and confident hands, and he’ll score a lot of points and rack up a hearty assist total. The Kings aren’t going anywhere meaningful, but Acuff has never played with anyone approaching Domantas Sabonis’s quality as a screener, and in the preseason you could already see him enjoying the lateral space that was becoming available to him as a result of that.
His competition here will be Cam Boozer, who I think will ultimately bring home the award. Boozer is infuriatingly steady for the opposition. He’s a right-play machine and should add something to literally every facet of Memphis’s approach. He’ll be critically central to what Memphis does, and I think he’ll drive winning more than any other rookie. Possibly as much as any in recent memory. However, sometimes you can just see this shit coming: This will probably be a debate where Boozer Bros. nitpick Acuff’s efficiency as a scorer and his defensive shortcomings, and the Acuff Acolytes will roll their eyes at the subtlety of Boozer’s (seemingly boring) game on both sides of the ball and point to how his burden is lesser than that of their no. 1 boy. As arguments go, it’s not a tale as old as time, but it’s a tale as old as blog-era basketball writing. Admittedly a little clunkier—can’t hear Angela Lansbury singing that—but it’s a tune Grizzlies fans will happily sing nonetheless.
Mahoney: Caleb Wilson. A first-year player needs the numbers and the recognition to win Rookie of the Year, but they also need a story. And Wilson will have quite the story to tell if he can manage to make the Bulls compelling again—a real feat after years of the franchise walking circles through irrelevance. Wilson’s game is antithetical to that kind of mired blandness. He’ll make jaw-dropping plays in transition. He’ll dazzle from the perimeter at times. He’ll even make defense fun by blowing up plays with a kind of athleticism that is just so distinctly watchable. Wilson should have every opportunity to prove he’s the best rookie going this season, but he’ll also impress in a way that makes people want to vote for him.
Murdock: Caleb Wilson. Caleb is going to get the lion’s share of offensive responsibility; it may be his award to lose.
Beck: Cam Boozer. His intuitive playmaking and all-around game will give the Grizzlies exactly what they need in year one of the post-Ja era: reliability. Boozer’s highlight reel might not be as glitzy as Peterson’s or Dybantsa’s, but he’ll probably get more consistent opportunities than his rivals, who are both playing with established stars. Peterson will have to earn his shots alongside Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George; Dybantsa will have to fight for shots between Trae Young and Anthony Davis. Boozer will be the Grizzlies’ top option on day one.
Dollinger: Cam Boozer. Assuming Ivica Zubac doesn’t technically count (sorry, scorned Pacers fan here). He’s the perfect extension and next installment for the Grizzlies. We can debate long-term upside among this season’s loaded prospect group, but Boozer is a ready-made franchise player for a city in desperate need of one. There will be the customary growing pains for a teenager, but he has the potential and polish to be a star from day one.
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Defensive Player of the Year
[Editor’s note: My bad, we didn’t need this one.]
Beck: Wembanyama. I mean, dude won it unanimously last season, so he could lose 30 votes and still win in a landslide. He’s not surrendering this title anytime soon.
Pina: Wembanyama. I don’t think this needs further explanation. Copy and paste it in here for the next 10 years.
Mann: Wembanyama. He is the most impactful defensive player that I’ve ever seen, and what’s wild is the juxtaposition between how strong a statement that is and how freezing cold a take it also happens to be. He’s that special, and it’s that obvious.
Dollinger: Wembanyama. Although Rudy Gobert deserves consideration for a fifth trophy if he can negate LaMelo.
Mahoney: Wembanyama. Come on.
Murdock: Wembanyama. The league might name the award after him by 2030.
Chau: Victor Wembanyama. From ’23 till infinity.
Sixth Man of the Year
Beck: DeMar DeRozan. We love a sixth man who can score! And DeRozan, still a maestro of the midrange, remains both productive and efficient (18 points per game last season in Sacramento). The Nuggets desperately need bench scoring and playmaking, so he’ll get plenty of burn. And despite his age (37), DeRozan has proved durable, playing at least 74 games in each of the past five seasons.
(I was tempted to pick Dylan Harper here, but I’m not sure the Spurs can deny him a starting spot for the entire season. In which case … hello, Sixth Man of the Year candidate De’Aaron Fox!)
Chau: Reed Sheppard. The return of Fred VanVleet, however diminished from his ACL recovery, is a boon for a Rockets offense that was badly in need of a caretaker last season. That newfound stability ought to allow Sheppard to lean into becoming the unrepentant rocket launcher he’s meant to be. Sheppard attempted more than 13 3s per 100 possessions in more than 2,000 regular-season minutes played; there have been only 10 players in league history who have done the same in multiple seasons. Sheppard’s already an unbelievable shooter, but if he continues at his current rate of volume with even a slight uptick in efficiency, he could be in line for a 2024-25 Payton Pritchard success story.
Pina: Devin Vassell. It’s a strange pick, but I’m going off my own potentially off-base assumption that San Antonio’s permanent starting five will eventually be De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, and Victor Wembanyama. (Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said that the lineup will start on opening night!) And if/when that happens, Vassell will cook off the pine as the versatile scorer he is. No other Spur has sacrificed more than he has, tapering his role to fit Fox, Castle, and Harper. Last season, his on-ball percentage (10.4 percent) was a far cry from the 17.2 percent he enjoyed in 2024-25. For the sake of maximizing different units and balancing out a rotation that’s ridiculously loaded, letting Vassell be a fireball off the pine makes sense.
Mahoney: Ajay Mitchell. Mitchell fits the mold in every respect: He puts numbers on the board, he makes a self-evident splash, he’s so good coming off the bench for OKC that he often winds up closing games anyway. The fact that he plays for a truly elite team is almost beside the point for this particular award, but it certainly can’t hurt; if anything, the widespread appreciation of the Thunder’s depth only makes Mitchell that much more of a standard-bearer.
Dollinger: Payton Pritchard. I have coworkers who might throw things at me for saying this, but the Celtics are bringing their second-best player off the bench this season. Then again, that’s the kind of strategic advantage that makes Joe Mazzulla foam at the mouth. Pritchard will lead the league in bench scoring and should supercharge one of the best second units in the league.
Mann: Dylan Harper. As a second-year player who’s wholly worthy of being at the center of his own superstar developmental experiment, Dylan Harper is not your typical sixth man. (He also may end up starting, rendering this take moot.) He is instead flanked by fantastic players and channeling his usage into on-court situations that he’s frankly overqualified for. Harper has played well in that responsive role—he hit on 34.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s in the playoffs. It’s one thing to try to slow down a driver of his quality, but when he’s working off of Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle, among others, and catching the ball with closeout paths out in front of him, containing Harper is is like trying to catch a moussed-up bison with your bare hands while you’re in flip-flops. He’s just too quick and too powerful to deal with from a rotating position. As he expands on what he’s shown thus far and dabbles in further initiating opportunities, the production should be substantial. And if the overlap within the Spurs rotation doesn’t change for another season, I could see this situation continuing to follow a Kobe-esque arc in which he flirts with All-Star status even when he’s not starting for his own team. That hasn’t happened since 1998, yet I still wouldn’t rule it out.
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Coach of the Year
Pina: JJ Redick.Choosing from a pool of about 20 candidates, I’ll go with Redick. There are plenty of great coaches, but many of them are leading teams with great expectations that are based on a meaningful offseason move or two. The Los Angeles Lakers have plenty of talent but are also positioned to exceed expectations in a way that allows their head coach to take credit. If the Sixers, Wolves, Raptors, or Heat are incredible, how much will voters attribute their success to new stars who’re joining the team? Same goes for the Pacers, Celtics, and Rockets. The Lakers will face a lot of skepticism, but if everything goes better than expected, there’s a decent chance Redick will earn a heap of praise.
Beck: Darko Rajakovic. There’s a chance (as Zach Lowe mentioned when we podded about this) that any credit for a Raptors leap will go to Kawhi Leonard instead of the coach. But close observers should see that breakthrough as a culmination. Toronto has improved its win total every season under Rajakovic—from 25 wins in 2023-24 to 46 last season—while becoming one of the best defensive teams in the league, with a young-ish roster. Scottie Barnes has blossomed into an All-Star and a DPOY candidate. And the Raptors have become a force without any real star power around him. If anything, Rajakovic is arguably overdue for some recognition. If the Raptors crack the 50-win plateau, he’ll get it.
Mann: Will Hardy. My guess is that the recently (finally) liberated Hardy—no longer accommodating larger, underperforming agendas—has been looking at the rest of the Western Conference the way that Hannibal Lecter looked at the mocking Dr. Chilton. The moment I get out of these restraints, I’m gonna do some heinous things to you. I suspect that this Jazz team could have some issues containing at the point of attack on defense, which could have some negative ripple effects for their block-chasing bigs, but this is quite the offensive unit to come back to. They might, legitimately, have the best 1-through-5 shooting lineup in the league, and they don’t sacrifice athleticism as a result. Thinking about the possibilities of how that can be weaponized, Hardy’s got to be doing that thing where you skip every other stride like you’re in a musical. Let the good times roll.
Chau: Hardy. He was the youngest coach in the NBA when he was hired by Utah in 2022; he’s still only 38. And for the first time in his head coaching career, Hardy will be at the helm of a team with legitimate postseason aspirations. After years of experimentation and refinement of his unorthodox schemes under the cover of putridity, it’s time to see the fruits of the Jazz’s patience. Utah suddenly has a preponderance of scoring talent across multiple positions and intriguing defensive centerpieces. Jaren Jackson Jr. brings DPOY-credentialed versatility as a roaming interior helper; no. 2 overall pick Darryn Peterson could very well ease into the rigors of NBA life by focusing on being one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the game. The pieces are all in place for Utah to make a splash out West. If it happens, Hardy’s anointment would be logical.
Matt Dollinger: Rick Carlisle. The Pacers could win 30-40 more games this season than they did during last season’s 19-victory campaign. On the one hand, this pick is blatant cheating. Tyrese Haliburton’s absence and now presence shouldn’t swing Coach of the Year. On the other hand, everyone inside that franchise is still, somewhat, dealing with the fallout of losing Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals in such devastating fashion. The hurt lingers. It was hard to even watch the Pacers last season without feeling debilitating ghost pains. Carlisle deserves credit for keeping Indiana intact amid such brutal wreckage. If Indiana hits the ground running this season, it’ll be because of the work he’s put in since Haliburton’s injury.
Murdock: Joe Mazzulla. Last season, Mazzulla earned this award in a nail-biter over J.B. Bickerstaff after guiding a team held together by duct tape and superglue. Now, with Jaylen Brown in Philly, Mazzulla can run back the same formula around Jayson Tatum, Beantown’s chosen one.
Mahoney: Hardy.It’ll be nice to see Hardy finally get to coach without having one hand tied behind his back. The Jazz are ready for the next step—and that means the smart, movement-heavy stuff Hardy has been implementing for years should finally get its due, in large part because Utah finally has enough actual NBA players to run it.
By The Ringer Staff / The Ringer