By Zach Harper, Jason Jones, Shakeia Taylor and The Athletic NBA Staff / The Athletic, 2026-10-20 17:03:57
2026-27赛季NBA即将拉开帷幕，The Athletic（竞技报）邀请其编辑团队对即将到来的新赛季进行预测。
根据我们30位受访者的预测，纽约尼克斯卫冕的可能性不大，年度最佳防守球员的争夺已基本尘埃落定，而东部一支星光熠熠的球队可能会令人失望。
为了解读这些结果并补充一些背景信息，我们请来了扎克·哈珀 (Zach Harper)、杰森·琼斯 (Jason Jones) 和谢基亚·泰勒 (Shakeia Taylor)。
谁将赢得2026-27赛季NBA总冠军？
哈珀： 我看好76人，但不知道该有多看好。反对他们两个选秀权论调的理由是：勒布朗·詹姆斯已经41岁了，乔尔·恩比德的状态永远是个未知数，而且这支球队的内线深度为零。没错，马刺正在叩响大门，雷霆也想重新杀回来。这些选择都有道理。森林狼夺冠的话就太不真实了。但难道我们这个时代已经如此深信“群雄割据”，以至于只有一个人认为会出现卫冕冠军吗？
琼斯： 雷霆和马刺看起来是显而易见的选择。但上赛季之前尼克斯也不是热门，谁知道呢？我倾向于相信马刺会吸取上赛季的教训并最终夺冠，但我也相信拥有超级巨星的球队永远有机会。丹佛、迈阿密和湖人凭借超级巨星的加持，属于我心目中的黑马行列。
泰勒： 大多数编辑认为冠军将来自西部，这并不让我意外。但让我意外的是森林狼竟然出现在这份名单上。真的有人“相信这一点”吗？安东尼·爱德华兹和拉梅洛·鲍尔在六月举起奖杯固然很酷，但也相当滑稽。
谁将成为NBA总决赛亚军？
哈珀： 好，说到群雄割据，这就是这么多人相信76人能打进总决赛的原因吗？我不反对这个观点，杰伦·布朗和泰瑞斯·马克西的组合会非常出色。我只是不知道他们在季后赛系列赛中如何与尼克斯抗衡。我也不认为他们能在季后赛系列赛中跟上印第安纳的节奏。另外，有两个人选择迈阿密，让我怀疑他们是不是会在交易截止日前完成一笔重磅引援？也许人们只是对尼克斯感到厌倦了，或者认为续约谈判会让球队分心？
琼斯： 费城要打进总决赛需要很多条件同时到位。如果76人真能做到，他们将拥有两位前NBA总决赛MVP，因此会有机会。但当一名核心球员12月就要年满42岁（勒布朗），另一名核心球员有重大伤病史且从未打进过分区决赛（恩比德）时，保持健康和化学反应可不是理所当然的事。
泰勒： 76人当总决赛亚军？我——你知道吗？太棒了。如果他们真能走到那一步，我很想看到一篇关于他们医疗团队的深度报道，感谢他们让球员们保持健康。
谁是你心目中的黑马争冠球队？
哈珀： 我想重点关注火箭作为黑马的选择。我始终无法释怀上赛季这支球队内部似乎有多互相厌恶。凯文·杜兰特的小号传闻始终没有完全澄清。伊梅·乌多卡看起来经常想和全队干一架。没错，弗雷德·范弗利特和史蒂文·亚当斯的回归会在场上稳定一些局面，马库斯·斯马特也还能提供帮助。但这支球队在季后赛成功方面几乎没有任何共同经历。
琼斯： 剧透一下：湖人那一票是我投的。尽管来吐槽“洛杉矶人偏袒洛杉矶”吧，但湖人拥有卢卡·东契奇。他2024年刚打进总决赛，所以相信他能带着奥斯汀·里夫斯作为第二选择再打出一轮季后赛征程并不疯狂。而且我还足够疯狂地相信JJ·雷迪克知道自己在做什么。安东尼·爱德华兹似乎也该打进总决赛了。但他身边是拉梅洛·鲍尔，而且我不认为森林狼被低估了。
泰勒： 我很高兴步行者在这份名单上名列前茅。2025年总决赛征程期间我报道过他们，当时他们充满饥饿感，尽管没人认为他们有机会（咳咳，那年我可是选了他们赢下东部决赛）。泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿和队友们真心想证明他们能重返那个舞台。
谁将是相对预期而言最令人失望的球队？
哈珀： 迈阿密获得了很多票，这很有意思。热火的预期到底是什么？大多数人都在怀疑他们能否通过附加赛。我不确定有谁认为他们拥有所需的全部武器。扬尼斯自2021年夺冠以来在季后赛中再无建树。不过话说回来……热火最喜欢震惊世人，所以也许预期就是打破外界的低预期？
琼斯： 如果76人不夺冠，那还有什么意义？勒布朗不会抛下家人来第二轮就出局，但自2001年以来，这一直是76人的天花板。我认为不夺冠不算最大的失望，但如果费城第二轮出局，那才是终极失望。
泰勒： 噢，费城。76人身上的夺冠压力肯定比其他任何球队都大。这就是“勒布朗税”。他空降而来是为了帮他们迈过那道坎并巩固自己的传奇，而他在媒体日提到的那些黑子们，肯定会准备好在季后赛失利时发出（更响亮的）嘲讽。
预测东部季后赛球队
哈珀： 没有人相信奇才能真正打完常规赛/附加赛并晋级，这让人大开眼界。我认为这更多反映的是东部的深度，而不是奇才的实力。对我来说，老鹰和魔术在上赛季开始前的期望值那么高，而现在我们所有人都集体对他们失去了兴趣，即便老鹰上赛季营造了不错的氛围。
琼斯： 奇才的情况很微妙，显然没人相信他们。但如果安东尼·戴维斯和特雷·杨都保持健康呢？他们还拥有AJ·迪班萨，后者有可能赢得年度最佳新秀。这总该让他们排进前十吧？
泰勒： 我等不及看到一支零票球队打进季后赛，然后某个人引用我们编辑团队的预测作为动力来源之一。
预测西部季后赛球队
哈珀： 用我极致的吉姆·莫拉语气说：“鹈鹕？！别选……鹈鹕？开什么玩笑？鹈鹕？我只希望他们能赢一场球。”
琼斯： 所以我们都同意国王、灰熊和快船应该尽快为NBA选秀投入球探工作了吧？我对那些看好勇士的人感到好奇。他们上赛季没进季后赛，吉米·巴特勒和摩西·穆迪都有伤在身，而且我们完全不知道克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯的情况如何。这10个人是怎么在知道这些的情况下还认为勇士能进季后赛的？斯蒂芬·库里肯定已经累了。
泰勒： 当我看到名单上的鹈鹕时，我不得不眨了两下眼睛。非常惊讶他们出现在这里。这是真正的信任啊！希望的胆量！
谁将赢得2026-27赛季NBA常规赛MVP？
哈珀： 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 是最简单的选择，但这并不意味着他不该被选。有时候这种事不必想太多。而且除了唯一一票投给杰伦·布伦森之外，似乎已经板上钉钉：没有人相信美国本土球员能赢得MVP。连安东尼·爱德华兹或杰森·塔图姆的一票都没有！
琼斯： 投票者们可能已经厌倦了投给谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，而文班实在太讨人喜欢。如果马刺以联盟最佳战绩收官，我看不出文班有什么理由不拿MVP。
泰勒： 大家相信文班亚马会把他上赛季没拿到的东西全部收入囊中，这一点让我非常感兴趣，而且我也投了他。我在最后一场季前赛上看到他从后场一条龙推进然后自抛自扣，如果这就是他的比赛方式，那么这个预测毫无疑问会应验。因为谁能防住他？！
谁将赢得2026-27赛季NBA年度最佳新秀？
哈珀： 这个奖项通常颁给步伐最华丽或场均得分最高的新秀。卡姆·布泽尔在孟菲斯可能两者兼备。彼得森和迪班萨会被他们的全明星队友稍微压制。真正该被选中的人是阿卡夫。我当初怎么没选他？
琼斯： 我倾向于选后卫拿最佳新秀，因为他们的持球时间可能比内线球员更多，所以布泽尔和威尔逊获得最多选票让我有些意外。看完一些季前赛之后，阿卡夫是另一位值得考虑的后卫。他会得到很多得分机会，因为在一支可能挣扎的球队里，球权会掌握在他手中。
泰勒： 很高兴看到这么多人相信威尔逊会立即对公牛产生配得上奖项的影响力。他们为重返强队行列已经奋斗了相当长的时间。即便公牛进不了季后赛，威尔逊的闪耀对球队而言也绝对是一场胜利。
谁将赢得2026-27赛季NBA年度最佳防守球员？
哈珀： 我想我在选票上写的是“胜利·文班亚马”（Victory Wembanyama）。这应该还算数吧。
琼斯： 只有伤病才能阻止文班获奖。
泰勒： 一点都不惊讶其他人连边都沾不上。如果你仔细听，你听到的声音是文班把某人的投篮扇到了月球上。
谁将赢得2026-27赛季NBA年度最佳第六人？
哈珀： 我没投这一票，但我真的很喜欢贾里德·麦凯恩这个选择。马刺或雷霆的某位球员凭借阵容深度是不错的押注。麦凯恩在截止日后加盟雷霆还没怎么热身就产生了巨大影响。现在他将完全融入他们的体系。
琼斯： 如果马刺最终让迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 扮演马努·吉诺比利式的角色，他会赢得这个奖项。开拓者控卫中没能打上首发的那位是我的另一个选择。那会是朱·霍勒迪吗？还是贾·莫兰特？
泰勒： 我非常看好年轻的马刺，而哈珀显然是极其重要的一块拼图。如果他们哪怕接近预期，部分原因也将是他表现得极其出色。
谁将赢得2026-27赛季NBA年度最佳教练？
哈珀： 埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉至今没拿过这个奖项，这依然毫无道理。他是NBA最好的教练，而在很长一段时间里，只有格雷格·波波维奇比他更出色。
琼斯： 我从来不知道该怎么选这个奖。是选那支让所有人惊喜的球队的主教练？还是选把一支饱受伤病困扰的球队凝聚在一起的主教练？单纯赢球的教练太经常被这个奖项忽视，仿佛球队的天赋不需要执教似的。所以我不知道该选谁，但如果西部有任何教练能带队排在雷霆和/或马刺之前，他们大概率会获奖。
泰勒： 查尔斯·李！这个选择太棒了。我其实认为黄蜂会是值得关注的球队之一，如果他们能掀起一些风浪，李绝对是原因所在。
说出一位你预计会在2月11日交易截止日前被交易的球员
哈珀： 大家都预计安东尼·戴维斯会厌倦这段奇才生涯，还有一个人预计篮网会从那些不听播客的迈克尔·波特 Jr. 追求者身上大赚一笔。我真的很喜欢锡安·威廉森可能被交易的想法。他和鹈鹕似乎都对这段经历感到心满意足了。
琼斯： 戴维斯不可能再被交易了。我拒绝相信这一点。波特去一支争冠球队？这很有意思。新奥尔良有多名值得考虑的球员，那才是我会持续关注的方向。
泰勒： 哦不。安东尼·戴维斯。我觉得他必须在原地待上一段时间。这实在太过分了！但凯里·欧文呢？哦，我绝对认为达拉斯会交易他，让他去某支争冠球队站稳脚跟。也许是马刺？那可就太妙了。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Predicting the 2026-27 NBA season, from title winner to awards to trades and more
Predicting the 2026-27 NBA season, from title winner to awards to trades and more
The 2026-27 NBA season is upon us, so The Athletic is asking its staff for their predictions for the upcoming campaign.
According to our 30 respondents, a New York Knicks repeat is unlikely, the Defensive Player of the Year race is essentially a wrap and a star-studded squad in the Eastern Conference might be disappointing.
To break down the results and add a bit more context, we’ve brought in Zach Harper, Jason Jones and Shakeia Taylor.
Who will win the 2026-27 NBA championship?
Harper: I believe in the 76ers, but I don’t know how much. The argument against two picks for them is that LeBron James is 41, Joel Embiid is always in limbo and this team has zero big man depth. Yes, the Spurs are knocking on the door, and the Thunder would like to be let back in. Those picks make sense. Minnesota winning it all would be unreal. But are we so parity-pilled now in this era that only one person thinks we’ll get a repeat champ?
Jones: OKC and San Antonio feel like the obvious choices. But the Knicks weren’t a popular choice before last season, so who knows? Believing the Spurs learned from last season and winning the title is how I tend to lean, but I also believe a team with a superstar always has a chance. Denver, Miami and the Lakers fall into my dark-horse category based on having a superstar.
Taylor: Not surprised most of the staff believes the winner is coming from the West. But what does surprise me is the Timberwolves making it on this list. Does anyone really “believe that,” I guess? Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball raising the trophy in June would be cool, no doubt, but also hilarious.
Who will finish as NBA Finals runner-up?
Harper: OK, speaking of parity, is that the reason so many people believe the Sixers are going to make the finals? I’m not against it, and the Jaylen Brown-Tyrese Maxey duo is going to be awesome. I just don’t know how they’d match up with the Knicks in a playoff series. I don’t think they can keep up with Indiana in a playoff series. Also, two people picking Miami makes me think that maybe there’s some massive acquisition they make before the deadline? Maybe people are just over the Knicks or believe the extension talk will derail things?
Jones: A lot has to go right for Philly to make the finals. If the Sixers manage to do so, they’d have two former NBA Finals MVPs, so they’d have a chance. But putting together good health and cohesion aren’t given when one key player turns 42 in December (LeBron) and another key player has a major injury history and has never advanced to a conference finals (Embiid).
Taylor: The 76ers as runners-up in the finals? I — you know what? Hell yeah. If they make it to that point, then I’d love to see something in-depth on the medical staff for keeping it together.
Who is your dark-horse title contender?
Harper: I want to focus on the Rockets picks as the dark horse here. I can’t get over how much this team seemed to hate one another last season. We had Kevin Durant burner allegations that never totally got cleared up. Ime Udoka looked like he often wanted to physically fight his entire team. Yes, the return of Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams will settle some things on the court, and Marcus Smart can still help. But this team has done virtually nothing together when it comes to playoff success.
Jones: Spoiler: I was the Lakers vote. Cue up the “L.A. guy goes with L.A.” comments, but the Lakers have Luka Dončić. He was just in the finals in 2024, so it’s not crazy to believe he can pull off another postseason run with Austin Reaves as the second option. And I’m also crazy enough to believe JJ Redick knows what he’s doing. Anthony Edwards seems due for a finals run, too. But he has LaMelo Ball, and I don’t think the Timberwolves are being overlooked.
Taylor: I like that the Pacers are near the top of this list. I covered them during that 2025 finals run, and they were hungry then, when no one thought that they had a chance (ahem, I picked them to win the conference finals that year). Tyrese Haliburton and company really want to show that they can get back there.
Who will be the biggest disappointment relative to expectations?
Harper: A lot of picks for Miami, which I find interesting. What are the Heat’s expectations? For the most part, people are wondering if they’re even going to make it through the Play-In Tournament. I’m not sure anybody thinks they have every weapon they need. Giannis hasn’t had any postseason success since his title run in 2021. At the same time … the Heat love to shock people, so maybe the expectation is to buck the low expectations?
Jones: If the Sixers don’t win a championship, what’s the point? LeBron didn’t leave his family to lose in the second round, but that’s been the ceiling for the Sixers since 2001. I don’t think not winning a title would be the biggest disappointment, but if Philadelphia loses in the second round, that would be the ultimate disappointment.
Taylor: Ohhh, Philly. There’s certainly more pressure on the Sixers to win than everyone else. It’s the LeBron tax. He’s helicoptering in to help them get over the hump and solidify his own legacy, and those haters he mentioned at media day will surely be ready to get loud(er) over a loss in the playoffs.
Predict the East playoff field
Harper: Nobody believing the Wizards will actually make it through the regular season/Play-In Tournament is the eye-opener. I think it says more about the depth of the East than the Wizards’ capabilities. For me, the hopes for the Hawks and Magic were so high going into last season, and now we’re all collectively over it, even with the good vibes the Hawks built last season.
Jones: The Wizards are tricky, and clearly no one believes in them. But what if Anthony Davis and Trae Young are healthy? They also have AJ Dybantsa, who could win Rookie of the Year. That has to put them in the top 10, right?
Taylor: I can’t wait for a team with no votes to make the playoffs and someone somewhere to cite our staff predictions as part of the motivation.
Predict the West playoff field
Harper: In my extreme Jim Mora voice, “Pelicans?! Don’t pick the… Pelicans? You kidding me? The Pelicans? I just hope they can win a game.”
Jones: So we all agree the Kings, Grizzlies and Clippers should invest in scouting for the NBA Draft ASAP? I’m curious about those who believe in the Warriors. They missed the playoffs last season, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are injured and we have no idea what’s going on with Kristaps Porziņģis. How do 10 folks know that and think the Warriors are making the playoffs? Steph Curry has got to be tired.
Taylor: When I got to the Pelicans on this list, I had to blink twice. Very surprised to see them here. That is some real belief there! The audacity of hope!
Who will win 2026-27 NBA MVP?
Harper: Victor Wembanyama is the easy pick, and that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be the pick. Sometimes you don’t have to overthink this thing. It also appears to be a foregone conclusion, outside of one lone pick for Jalen Brunson, that nobody believes in the U.S.-born player winning MVP. Not even an Anthony Edwards or Jayson Tatum vote!
Jones: The voters might be tired of voting for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Wemby is just so likable. If the Spurs finish with the best record in the league, I don’t see how Wemby does not win MVP.
Taylor: The belief that Wembanyama is coming for everything he didn’t get last season is really interesting to me, and I voted for him. I saw him go coast-to-coast and lob to himself in the final preseason game, and if that’s how he’s going to play, then this will hold up without question. Because who is stopping that?!
Who will win 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
Harper: This usually goes to the rookie with the coolest steps or the most points per game. Cameron Boozer might have both of those in Memphis. Peterson and Dybantsa are going to be toned down a bit by their All-Star teammates. The guy who should have been picked is Acuff. Why didn’t I do that?
Jones: I tend to go with guards for Rookie of the Year because they’re likely to have the ball more than a big, so I’m surprised Boozer and Wilson received the most votes. After watching some of the preseason, Acuff is another guard who deserves consideration. He’ll get a lot of chances to score because he’s going to have the ball on a team that is likely to struggle.
Taylor: Good to see how many people believe Wilson will make an instant and award-worthy impact on the Bulls. They’ve been fighting to get back to relevance for quite some time. Wilson shining would certainly be a win for the Bulls even if they don’t make the playoffs.
Who will win 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
Harper: I think I wrote “Victory Wembanyama” on my ballot. That still counts.
Jones: Only injury will keep Wemby from winning.
Taylor: Not even surprised no one else is even close. If you listen closely, the sound you hear is Wemby sending someone’s shot to the moon.
Who will win 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?
Harper: I didn’t make it, but I really like the Jared McCain selection. Someone on the Spurs or Thunder is a good bet to do it with their depth. McCain barely got his feet wet with the Thunder after the deadline and had a great impact. Now he’ll be fully ingrained in what they do.
Jones: Dylan Harper will win this if the Spurs end up keeping him in the Manu Ginobili role. Whoever among the Blazers’ point guards doesn’t start would be my other choice. Is that going to be Jrue Holiday? Ja Morant?
Taylor: I’m high on the young Spurs, and Harper is obviously a really important piece. If they even come close to expectations, it will be in part because he performed incredibly well.
Who will win 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year?
Harper: It still makes no sense that Erik Spoelstra doesn’t have one of these awards. He’s the best coach in the NBA, and for a long time, only Gregg Popovich was better.
Jones: I never know what to do with these. Is it the coach of the team that surprises everyone? Maybe the coach that held together a team dealing with injuries? Coaches who just win get overlooked for this award too often, as if the talent doesn’t require coaching. So I have no idea which way to go, but if any coach in the West manages to finish ahead of OKC and/or San Antonio, they’ll probably win.
Taylor: Charles Lee! Helluva pick there. I actually think the Hornets are going to be one of those teams to watch, and if they make some noise, Lee will absolutely be the reason.
Name one player you expect to be traded before the Feb. 11 deadline
Harper: People are expecting Anthony Davis to be sick of this Wizards stint, and one person is expecting the Nets to cash in on any Michael Porter Jr. pursuers who don’t listen to podcasts. I really like the idea that Zion Williamson could be moved. He and the Pelicans both appear to be all good on this experience.
Jones: Davis cannot be traded again. I refuse to believe it. Porter to a contender? That’s intriguing. New Orleans has multiple players to consider, and that’s who I’ll be monitoring.
Taylor: Oh no. Anthony Davis. I think he has to stay where he is for a while. It’s just too much! But Kyrie Irving? Oh, I definitely think Dallas trades him and he heads off to solidify a contender somewhere. Maybe the Spurs? That would be delicious.
By Zach Harper, Jason Jones, Shakeia Taylor and The Athletic NBA Staff / The Athletic