By Lee Dresie / Pounding The Rock, 2026-10-18 12:21:34
10月初的时候，我还满心期待着能在2026-27赛季迎来属于球迷的“三冠王”伟业。我的主队马刺，本赛季并列领跑夺冠赔率榜。而我的两支同城球队同样是夺冠大热门——道奇队已经杀入国联冠军赛，正在全力冲击三连冠；公羊队则是人人看好的超级碗头号热门。然而，马刺的形势虽然依旧稳固，道奇和公羊的处境却已风云突变。此前已完成世界大赛两连冠的道奇队，刚刚以0比4惨遭密尔沃基酿酒人队横扫。赛季前备受看好的公羊队目前战绩仅为2胜3负，落后如今拉斯维加斯的新宠49人队足足三个胜场。不过至少公羊队还有一线生机，而道奇队已经彻底出局了。
更令人郁闷的是，我刚刚回过神来，回头看看这三支球队，他们竟然无一例外倒在了各自联盟的“四强”阶段：公羊在国联决赛中饮恨不敌海鹰，马刺折戟NBA总决赛，道奇则倒在酿酒人脚下。就像马刺面对尼克斯时那样，道奇在每场比赛中也都曾手握领先。我不知道该怎么称呼这种与我所期望的“三冠王”恰恰相反的局面，但那种滋味绝对不好受。
不过，我们还是往前看，不要老盯着过去。本赛季马刺与俄克拉荷马城雷霆队并列为总冠军的最大热门。事实上，在各队总经理的预测中，马刺力压雷霆更被看好夺冠，其中77%的总经理预测维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 将荣膺MVP。甚至还有2000%的总经理预测文班亚马将蝉联最佳防守球员——好吧，这个百分比我可能记得略有偏差。
言归正传，聊聊本文的核心话题：在“最有可能迎来爆发性突破赛季的球员”投票中，迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 力压库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，以27%对7%的得票率位列榜首。这一投票结果可能也反映出弗拉格的起步基准线要高得多，毕竟他上赛季场均就能贡献21分、6.7个篮板和4.5次助攻。想在这样的豪华数据基础上完成所谓的“爆发”，难度确实大得多。
但我真正想探讨的，是马刺球迷圈内目前热议的“三后卫”话题。上赛季我就曾多次谈及这一点，并且指出：拥有三名顶尖后卫是一件大好事，绝非什么“甜蜜的烦恼”。比如，早在2025年训练营开启之前，我就曾写过这样一段话：
“整个篮球界一致认可马刺用榜眼签选中迪伦·哈珀的决定，他是2025年NBA选秀大会中公认的第二强球员。我听到的唯一担忧，就是哈珀的技术特点是否会与预期中的首发后场达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 发生重叠。
作为一个有过一点执教经验的人，我知道在两个后场位置上拥有三名优秀的后卫是天大的幸事，而非坏事。原因很简单——没有哪名球员能打满整整48分钟。事实上，马刺上赛季最强的王牌球员（大家都知道他是谁）场均出场时间也才33分钟。在代表马刺出战的17场比赛中，福克斯场均出战34分钟，而卡斯尔场均出战27分钟。如果福克斯和卡斯尔本赛季保持同样的负荷，他们将在后场总计96分钟的出场时间里分走61分钟。这就留下了35分钟的时间给哈珀或其他球员——比方说，如果德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 需要在得分后卫和小前锋位置之间轮流分担时间的话。哈珀要到2026年3月才满20岁——对于这样一位处于新秀赛季的年轻小将来说，场均打个20分钟左右恰到好处。”
事实证明，这一预测相当准确——在常规赛中，福克斯场均出战31分钟，卡斯尔30分钟，哈珀22分钟。到了季后赛，这些数据分别微调至33分钟、33分钟和27分钟。有趣的是，瓦塞尔以场均34.8分钟的出场时间领跑全队季后赛榜单，甚至略高于文班亚马。当然，文班亚马在对阵森林狼的一场比赛中过早被驱逐出场，这也稍微拉低了他的场均时间。
言归正传，再回到三后卫的话题上。福克斯、卡斯尔和哈珀在季后赛中的出场时间合计达到了每场93分钟，极其接近两个后卫位置总共96分钟的上限。这意味着在比赛的绝大多数时间里，马刺球场上都能保证始终有两名顶级后卫在掌控全局——这正是你最梦寐以求的轮换状态。如果马刺在每场比赛的特定阶段同时派上这三名后卫，并且试图将每人的场均时间控制在32分钟左右，那么不可避免的结果就是：在比赛的某些特定时段里，球场上将仅仅只剩下一名优秀后卫。如果战术目标是让场上的主力持球核心数量最大化，那么上赛季的轮换体系显然更为理想。（顺便提一句——马刺上赛季常规赛狂轰62胜并杀入NBA总决赛。既然体系运转良好，又何必多此一举去打破它呢？）。我当然非常赞成把哈珀的登场时间从常规赛的22分钟、季后赛的27分钟往上提一提，但这完全可以在2026-27赛季的现有模式下完成，根本没必要生搬硬套强推三后卫首发阵容。
事实上，上赛季常规赛马刺没有任何一名球员的场均出场时间超过32分钟——这是马刺优良传统的延续，既能保持球员充沛的体能，又能延长他们的职业生涯。这同时也让替补球员能够获得充实的实战时间并保持火热状态。只要哈珀能分到属于他的出场时间，谁打首发根本无伤大雅。关于这一点，马努·吉诺比利绝对最有发言权。
这一点之所以尤为关键，是因为马刺在后卫线上其实并不臃肿，锋线和内线反而是人满为患。假设文班亚马、卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 和新秀瓜分掉中锋位置全部的48分钟，那么两个锋线位置就剩下96分钟。而马刺阵中正有一大批实力悍将嗷嗷待哺，准备争夺这些宝贵的时间：瓦塞尔、朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)、托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris)、凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)、卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 以及哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)。这可是足足六位货真价实的NBA轮换级正选球员！
上赛季，瓦塞尔和尚帕尼这两位首发锋线合力吃掉了96分钟里的58分钟。哈里斯在底特律活塞队效力期间场均出战28分钟，今年预计出场时间也相差无几。这样算下来时间就已经累积到了86分钟，留给“最佳第六人”约翰逊、潜力新星布莱恩特以及巴恩斯的时间满打满算就只剩10分钟了。要是马刺每场比赛哪怕只打10分钟的三后卫阵容，约翰逊、布莱恩特和巴恩斯就将彻底面临零出场时间的尴尬境地。而且我敢打包票，马刺绝对不想大幅削减瓦塞尔或尚帕尼的登场时间。分享一个冷知识：上赛季这二位在队内的正负值分别高居第二和第三。至于第一是谁，用膝盖想也能猜到。
如果我有投票权的话——当然我并没有——我一定会把票投给“尽量少用三后卫阵容”。
后记：
这篇分析的大部分内容，是我在周五晚上马刺对阵国王的季前赛开打前写好的。结果那场比赛马刺直接摆出了三后卫外加瓦塞尔和文班亚马的首发阵容。当马刺在第一节还剩6分34秒做出第一次换人调整（尚帕尼换下福克斯）时，场上比分已经是24比8，马刺足足领先了16分。米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 赛后表示，他们将在周二对阵雷霆的常规赛揭幕战中继续沿用这套三后卫首发阵容。行吧，或许这就是为什么我没有投票权的原因吧。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Busted Three-peats, Triple Crowns, and the Spurs three guard lineup
Busted Three-peats, Triple Crowns, and the Spurs three guard lineup
At the start of October, I had high hopes for a fan’s Triple Crown for 2026-27. My main team, the Spurs, are co-favorites to win it all this season. My two local teams were also favorites – the Dodgers were already into the NLCS looking for a three-peat, and the Rams were everyone’s favorite to win the Super Bowl. While nothing has changed for the Spurs, a lot has changed for the Dodgers and Rams. The Dodgers, two-time defending World Series champs, were just swept 4 – 0 by the Milwaukee Brewers. Preseason favorite Rams are 2 – 3, and about to fall three games behind the 49ers, who are now Vegas favorites. At least the Rams have better chances than the Dodgers, who have none.
To make it worse, I just realized that if we look backwards, each of my teams lost in the “final four” for each of their leagues. The Rams lost to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, the Spurs in the NBA Finals, and the Dodgers lost to the Brewers. Just like the Spurs against the Knicks, the Dodgers led in every game. I don’t know what you would call the opposite of my hoped-for Triple Crown, but it would not be very nice.
But let’s look forward instead of back. The Spurs remain co-favorites with OKC to win it all this season. Indeed, league GMs picked the Spurs ahead of OKC to prevail, with 77% predicting that Victor Wembayama will be the MVP. 2,000% of the GMs also predicted that Victor would repeat as Defensive Player of the Year, though I might have that percentage slightly off.
Closer to the main point of this post, Dylan Harper was voted the player most likely to have a break-out year, ahead of Cooper Flagg (27% to 7%). That vote may reflect that Flagg is starting at a much higher baseline, as he averaged 21 points, 6.7 boards and 4.5 assists last season. It is a bit harder to “break out” from numbers like that.
But I do want to address the “three guard” debate going on in the Spurs universe. I addressed this point several times last season, pointing out that having three excellent guards is a good thing and not a “problem”. For instance, even before training camp opened in 2025, I wrote this:
“The basketball universe unanimously approved the Spurs’ selection on Dylan Harper as the clear second best player in the 2025 NBA draft. The only concern I have heard is that Harper’s skills overlap with those of the anticipated starting backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
Having coached a bit, I know that having three good guards for the two backcourt spots is a good thing, not a bad one. The reason is simple — players don’t play all 48 minutes. Indeed, the Spurs’ best player last year (you know his name) averaged just 33 minutes per game. In 17 games with the Spurs, Fox averaged 34 minutes while Castle averaged 27. If Fox and Castle play the same amount this season, they will play a total of 61 minutes out of the 96 minutes available. That leaves 35 minutes for Harper or others — for instance. if Devin Vassell splits his time between the 2 and the 3. Harper will be not be 20 years old until March 2026 — and 20 is probably about the right number of minutes for such a young player in his rookie season.”
This prediction was remarkably accurate – in the regular season, Fox averaged 31 minutes, Castle 30 and Harper 22. In the playoffs, those numbers ticked up to 33, 33 and 27. Interestingly, Devin Vassel led the team in playoff minutes with 34.8 per game, slightly more than Victor. Of course, Victor was ejected early in a T’Wolves game, pushing his average minutes per game down a bit.
But back to the three guards issue. Fox, Castle and Harper’s playoff minutes totaled 93 minutes per game, very close to the 96 minutes available for the two guard spots. Which meant that the Spurs had two of their excellent guards on the floor virtually all the time – just the way you want it. If the Spurs play all three of them at the same time for portions of each game, and try to keep the per player minutes close to 32 per game, that will necessarily mean that for portions of each game, only one of them will be on the floor. If the goal is to maximize the number of lead ball-handlers on the floor, last season’s system seems preferable. (Side note – the Spurs won 62 games last season and made it to the NBA Finals. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.). I am certainly OK with increasing Harper’s minutes from the 22 he played in the regular season, and the 27 in the playoffs, but that can be done with the 2026-27 season model instead of forcing a three guard line-up.
Indeed, no one on the Spurs averaged more than 32 minutes per game in the regular season – a Spurs tradition that keeps the players fresh and their careers long. This also allows the non-starters to get real minutes and stay sharp. So long as Harper is getting his minutes, no one should care who is starting. Something Manu Ginobili can certainly attest to.
This is especially true because while the Spurs do not have a logjam at guard, they do in the frontcourt. Assuming Victor, Luke Kornet and the rookie soak up all 48 of the center minutes, that leaves 96 minutes for the two frontcourt spots. And the Spurs have a bunch of good players vying for those minutes. Vassel, Julian Champagnie, Tobias Harris, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, and Harrison Barnes. That is six legitimate NBA players.
Last season, the two starters, Vassel and Champaigne, combined for 58 of the 96 minutes. Harris averaged 28 minutes in Detroit, and should play about the same this year. We are up to 86 minutes, leaving only 10 minutes for 6th Man of the Year Johnson, potential star Bryant and whatever minutes Barnes gets. If the Spurs use the three guard line-up for even ten minutes per game, that leaves ZERO minutes for Johnson, Bryant and Barnes. And I am pretty sure the Spurs don’t want to significantly cut the minutes of either Vassel or Champagnie. Fun fact: those two had the second and third best plus-minus on the team. You can guess who had the best.
If I had a vote, which I don’t, I would vote for minimizing the three-guard line-up.
POSTSCRIPT:
I wrote most of this before the Spurs’ Friday night preseason game against the Kings. The Spurs started the game with the three-guard line-up, plus Vassel and Victor. When the Spurs made their first substitution (Champagnie for Fox) at the 6:34 mark of the first quarter, they were already up by 16 points, 24 – 8. Mitch Johnson said that they will start the three guards against OKC in the season opener on Tuesday. Maybe that is why I don’t have a vote.
By Lee Dresie / Pounding The Rock