By Jared Weiss / The Athletic, 2026-10-16 18:45:19
圣安东尼奥马刺的赛季揭幕战已不到一周。他们希望重返NBA总决赛，并书写一个全新的结局。球队目前正处于冲击又一次深度季后赛之旅的绝佳位置：多名关键球员有望更进一步，轮换阵容深度甚至可以说是联盟之最。
新赛季马刺会迎来什么？以下是我对2026-27赛季马刺的八项预测。
文班MVP（WembVP）
一切条件都已就绪，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 将向NBA常规赛MVP发起冲击。这项奖项往往取决于三个维度的交集：球队战绩、数据产出和故事线。马刺预计将再次竞争联盟最佳战绩，他的攻防两端影响力让他在各类高阶数据榜单上名列前茅，而选民对连续获奖的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的审美疲劳也将对他有利。
回顾这一奖项近年的历史，球员往往能连庄两次，却难以实现三连。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博、斯蒂芬·库里、史蒂夫·纳什和蒂姆·邓肯都经历过这种情况。有时是因为他们开始把重心放在六月的夺冠上，而非十月至四月的全力输出；有时是球队格局变化，使他们不再拥有超凡的影响力。但实际上，最大的因素是选民疲劳。人们总是被那些让比赛焕然一新的闪亮新事物所吸引。不知为何，尼古拉·约基奇的打法已经被“常态化”了，尽管就相对于所处时代的统治力而言，很少有球员能与这位丹佛掘金的三届MVP相提并论。
文班亚马正在逼近那个领域。从执行层面看，他的进攻技术仍显粗糙，季前赛中所展现的零星片段也未能清晰预示他的下一步会是什么样子。他已是联盟最多才多艺的进攻武器之一，唯一能像他那样掌控球场每一寸空间的大个子，只有约基奇。
上赛季贯穿始终的问题是：文班亚马历史级的防守影响力，能否抵消前两届MVP得主的执行优势。答案是否定的——不过如果他上半赛季的表现能像下半赛季一样出色，他本已非常接近。只要文班亚马打出一个稳定的赛季，哪怕进攻端只有适度提升，就足以让他在一月份年满23岁之际跻身MVP领跑者行列。那将为他铺就一条道路，开启我们所能见到的最漫长的MVP窗口期之一。
揭幕战将派出三后卫首发
在这支球队中选择首发阵容，其实并没有标准答案，可行的组合有很多。把迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 提上首发并非最优解。从过去十年我们所见证的后现代、由外而内的篮球理念来看，这并不契合围绕文班亚马打造的体系。对于一名需要空间才能突入篮下完成终结的球员来说，这会压缩球场空间。
但马刺在米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 执教的第一个完整赛季里，已经打破了一些常规，并打造出一套行之有效的东西。这套体系的框架在季后赛中经受住了考验，只是马刺年轻核心们的执行力最终还不够好。本赛季执行力会继续提升，正如上赛季那样。
上赛季证明，多名拥有出色抛投射程的持球人可以与文班亚马共存。马刺发现，只要协防者被牵制到底角，他们的后卫就能深入防线腹地，获得多种进攻选择。他们的三分命中率和出手频率都处于联盟中游，凭借他们的突破得分和防守，这已经足够了。如果用哈珀顶替朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)，该位置的三分出手频率可能会减半。但好处是，这会让进攻更具流动性和不可预测性，减轻文班亚马的负担，并提升他在比赛末段的体能储备。
这也是马刺推动进攻“去角色化”的体现。季前赛中，文班亚马既会自己运球推进，也会先运球到前场再交还给后卫，随即立刻投入挡拆配合。斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和哈珀都能充当掩护者和空切者，而且当他们的投篮无人盯防时，还能冲击松散的补防，同时保持球的流转。这套打法有很多种运作方式，即便难免会遭遇手感冰冷的阶段。
约翰逊在季前赛揭幕战中就启用了这套阵容——尽管达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 后来临时缺阵——这表明它非常有可能在揭幕战亮相。即便没有，它也必须是这支球队的长远规划，至少本赛季如此。把哈珀提上首发，更多是为了最大化他的出场时间分配，而非让他感受球星待遇或优化轮换适配。这是对他成长的投资，是一种信念：等到季后赛来临时，马刺将已摸索出足够的空间和节奏，打造出能抵御季后赛级别防守的进攻体系。
赛季中期还会有一次阵容调整
上赛季一月份，当尚帕尼顶替哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 进入首发后，马刺的赛季驶入快车道。当时巴恩斯陷入低迷，而尚帕尼恰好在最佳时机手感火热且出手频繁，为马刺提供了所需的空间点，让防线被拉开，给文班亚马留出进攻空间。虽然球队当时整体恢复健康，而健康也是他们二月保持不败的主因，但尚帕尼的上位让一切都严丝合缝。
不可避免的是，类似的情况还会再次出现。随着托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris) 的加盟，马刺的锋线轮换变得更深，而他已经十年没有打过替补了。由于出场时间被摊得如此之薄，当某位首发陷入低迷时，约翰逊将感受到做出调整的压力。他的挑战在于：当事情不顺时，如何维持球队的和谐与节奏。他是会在逆境中保持稳定，让每个人都认同自己在轮换中的定位，还是会频繁调整以维持球队效率？
可以预见，随着低迷和伤病的累积，某种调整终将到来。无论是延续上赛季的双锋线首发结构、之后再切换到三后卫阵容（或反过来），还是用一名锋线替换另一名以平衡第二阵容，改变终会发生。
朱利安·尚帕尼在NBA总决赛第三场中起跳轻松得分。(Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
文班将找到自己的招牌动作
文班亚马找不到属于自己的投篮，是他比赛中显而易见的短板，而这一弱点在季后赛深入阶段被进一步放大。每位伟大球员都有几招招牌进攻——你知道它要来，却就是防不住。他们把这一投练到了极致，感觉不到防守者的存在，只感知空间和角度。对文班亚马来说，这本应比联盟任何人都容易，因为很多时候他甚至根本看不到防守者。
有一项进攻尤其应该成为他的看家本领：短挡拆后的跳投。这是马刺可以像钟表一样精准执行的战术——高位挡拆后，他在罚球线接球直接出手，无需运球。季前赛对阵亚特兰大老鹰和菲尼克斯太阳时，他各命中过一记，这很好地展示了他果断出手、化繁为简时的效率。
上赛季，文班亚马在不断扩展的比赛中逐渐成长。如今，他需要用更具体的选择去填满技术包中的所有空间。这就是唾手可得的“轻松分”，是那种能应对他面对的大多数防守策略、并让他免于在禁区消耗体力的投篮。这还能让他在进攻轴心位置举球于头顶，为球权转移和不同战术的重新发起创造更好的角度。一旦他练成这项任何伟大中锋都必备的轻松得分手段，他就将准备好向MVP迈出下一步。
卡特·布莱恩特的出场时间将成为话题
放眼整个NBA，大多数球迷群体都有一位无名英雄式的新秀：数据远看平平无奇，近看却让人爱不释手。随着上赛季的深入，卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 成为了球队最具观赏性的球员之一。这位马刺年轻锋线登场后便展开蜂群般的防守，偶尔还能贡献精准的三分和篮下的爆炸性表演。下半赛季他向巴恩斯的出场时间发起了有力挑战，并在季后赛中拼尽全力，尽管他在防守球星时难以避免犯规麻烦。
本赛季，他看起来已经准备好展现更多：更多持球进攻，对防守站位有更好的感觉，也更懂得NBA裁判执法的细微尺度。他正是那种能在第二个赛季挤进轮换的锋线球员，但现在几乎没有他的位置。有哈里斯在阵中，很难想象布莱恩特上赛季场均11.5分钟的出场时间能有所提升。但当他连续打出一个月的火热投篮表现时，关于球队是否应该通过交易为他腾出空间的激烈讨论必将随之而来。
锋线位置将迎来状态回落
本赛季总会有人的表现出现下滑，几乎每个赛季都是如此。如果布莱恩特要获得更多时间，必然以牺牲某人的出场时间为代价，而经历过总决赛征程的球员几乎总会带伤作战，导致状态下滑。凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)——正进入合同年——和德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 是队中资历最老的球员，上赛季消耗巨大。哈里斯带着小腿拉伤进入新赛季，且已年过三十五。巴恩斯上赛季状态下滑，但季前赛在哈里斯缺阵期间，他依然获得了稳定的轮换时间。总有什么事情不会按计划进行。
卡斯尔将成为马刺的第二位全明星
福克斯上赛季作为最后的伤病递补入选了全明星。与此同时，哈珀包揽了季前赛的所有关注。但低调地说，卡斯尔才是本赛季最有望实现飞跃的那个人。哈珀的产出会随着预期的出场时间增加而提升，尽管当联盟各队吃透他的球探报告、逼迫他寻找新的舒适区时，他可能要经历一段调整期。而卡斯尔已经历过大量成长的阵痛，马刺正在做出调整以放大他的优势。
当文班亚马和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 在弧顶持球时，卡斯尔获得了更多向禁区空切的机会，这将为他带来轻松得分。上赛季他的接球投三分命中率达到38%，如果哈珀和文班亚马承担更多组织任务，这类出手机会还会更多。本赛季他在突破路线上应该能多获得一步的空间，这让他更容易使出抛投。球队似乎还打算进一步加快转换进攻的节奏，而他恰恰热爱这种速度。卡斯尔正处在经验与机遇的黄金交汇点，这让他很有机会拿下上赛季失之交臂的全明星席位。
马刺将夺得总冠军
我预计季后赛中进攻执行力仍会是个问题。根据近年的趋势，伤病也会成为变量。能打进总决赛的球队，往往是健康状况最好的强队。尽管福克斯脚踝扭伤，马刺上赛季季后赛仍是所有球队中最健康的。
尽管如此，他们整体的天赋储备加上文班亚马的又一次坚实进步，应该足以击退一支健康的雷霆队。我们去年已经看到，打进总决赛所消耗的精神和体能，如何在面对尼克斯时拖累了马刺。我预计这一次他们会为那个时刻做好充分准备。
他们不需要榨干阵容的每一分潜力才能夺冠——去年我们已经见识过了。尚未完全成熟的文班、带伤作战的福克斯加上新秀哈珀，就已足以让他们站上悬崖边缘。马刺还有巨大的成长空间。我相信他们会完成足够的飞跃，最终捧起总冠军奖杯。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Spurs 2026-27 season predictions: MVP Wemby? Dylan Harper the starter? NBA champs?
Spurs 2026-27 season predictions: MVP Wemby? Dylan Harper the starter? NBA champs?
The San Antonio Spurs’ season opener is less than a week away. They hope to return to the NBA Finals and write a new ending. They are in a great place to make another deep playoff run, with several key players slated to take a step forward and arguably the deepest rotation in the league.
What is in store for San Antonio this season? These are my eight predictions for the 2026-27 Spurs.
WembVP
Everything is in place for Victor Wembanyama to make the leap to NBA MVP. This award tends to have a three-circle Venn diagram of team performance, statistical output and narrative. The Spurs project to once again compete for the best record in the league, his two-way impact puts him toward the top of impact metrics and voter fatigue with back-to-back winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should work in his favor.
Looking at this award’s recent history, players often win twice in a row but can’t make it three. That happened to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry, Steve Nash and Tim Duncan. Sometimes, that’s because they start to prioritize winning in June over all-out effort in October through April. Or their team dynamics shift to where they are no longer making an outsized impact. But in reality, the big element is voter fatigue. People are entranced by the shiny new thing that makes the game feel different. Somehow, Nikola Jokić’s game has been normalized, even though few players have been as dominant relative to their era as the Denver Nuggets’ three-time MVP.
Wembanyama is approaching that territory. His offensive game is still raw from an execution perspective, and the small snippets he’s shown in the preseason don’t clearly indicate what his next step looks like. He is one of the most versatile offensive weapons in the game, with Jokić being the only other big who can own every single inch of the court.
The question throughout last year was whether Wembanyama’s historic defensive impact could offset the execution advantage of the last two MVP winners. The answer was no, although he would have been right there had his first half of the season been as good as his second half. A consistent season from Wembanyama, with even moderate offensive improvement, could be enough for him to ascend into MVP front-runner by the time he turns 23 in January. That would set him on a path that could open one of the longest MVP windows we’ve seen.
Three-guard lineup will start opening night
There really is no right answer to choose starters on this team. There are several viable combinations. Moving Dylan Harper to the starting lineup is not optimal. It doesn’t fit a system around Wembanyama based on the last decade we’ve watched of post-modern, outside-in basketball. It shrinks the floor for a player who needs spacing to get close enough to the rim to throw the ball through it.
But the Spurs already bucked some conventions in Mitch Johnson’s first full season and built something that worked well. The structure of the system held up in the playoffs, but the execution from the Spurs’ young studs wasn’t good enough in the end. That will improve again this season, just as it did in the last.
Last year proved that having multiple ballhandlers with great floater range can work alongside Wembanyama. The Spurs saw that as long as help defenders were pushed out toward the corners, their guards could get deep enough into the defense to have multiple options. They were middle of the pack in 3-point percentage and frequency, which is good enough with their downhill scoring and defense. If they replace Julian Champagnie with Harper, they will likely see the frequency from that spot in the lineup cut in half. The upside is that it will give the offense more flow and unpredictability, taking some burden off Wembanyama and increasing his stamina late in games.
It’s also a reflection of San Antonio’s push to make the offense more role-agnostic. During the preseason, Wembanyama has both brought the ball up the floor and advanced it to the frontcourt before flipping it to a guard and immediately going into a screen action. Stephon Castle and Harper can both serve as screeners and cutters, plus they can drive at soft closeouts when their shot isn’t being challenged and still keep the play moving. There are a lot of ways this can work, even if it will go through cold streaks.
Johnson’s decision to roll with that lineup in the preseason opener — before De’Aaron Fox was a late scratch — indicates that it’s very much in play for opening night. And even if it’s not, it has to be the eventual plan for this team, at least this season. Moving Harper to the starting lineup is more about maximizing his minutes allocation than making him feel like a star or optimizing the rotation fit. It’s an investment in his growth, a belief that, come playoff time, the Spurs will have figured out their spacing and rhythm enough to create an offense that can withstand playoff defenses.
There will be another midseason lineup change
The Spurs’ campaign went into overdrive back in January when Champagnie replaced Harrison Barnes in the starting lineup. Barnes was in a slump, while Champagnie was catching fire at just the right time and at a high frequency, giving the Spurs the spacer they needed to keep the defense stretched and give Wembanyama room to attack. Though the team got healthy in general at that point, and that health was the main reason it went undefeated in February, Champagnie’s promotion made everything fit together cleanly.
Inevitably, a situation like that will emerge again. The wing rotation got deeper when the Spurs added Tobias Harris, who hasn’t come off the bench in a decade. Because the minutes are spread so thin, Johnson will feel the pressure to make a move when a starter goes cold. His challenge will be to maintain the harmony and rhythm of the team when things aren’t working. Will he keep it steady through adversity to get everyone to buy into their places in the rotation, or will he tinker frequently to keep up the team’s efficiency?
Expect some sort of shift as slumps and injuries pile up. Whether it’s starting with the same structure as last year with two wings, then eventually going to the three-guard lineup (or vice-versa), or if it’s swapping out one wing for another to balance the second unit, something will eventually change.
Julian Champagnie elevates for an easy bucket in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. (Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
Wemby will find his go-to action
Wembanyama’s inability to find his shot was the glaring weakness in Wembanyama’s game that was exacerbated deeper in the playoffs. Every great player has a few go-tos that you know are coming and simply can’t stop. They have repped the shot out to the point that they do not feel the defender, only the space and the angle. That should be easier for Wembanyama than anyone else in the game. He doesn’t even see the defender a lot of the time.
There is one action in particular that should be his bread and butter: the short-roll jumper. This is a play the Spurs can break out like clockwork, a high pick-and-roll where he can catch the ball at the free-throw line and go right into a shot. No dribble needed. He hit one each against the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns in the preseason, good examples of how efficient he can be when he is decisive and keeps it simple.
Wembanyama spent last season growing into his expanding game. Now he has to fill all that room in his skill set with more concrete choices. This is the easy money lying around, the type of shot that works against most coverages he sees and keeps him from expending energy in the paint. It also allows him to play with the ball over his head at the pivot point of the offense, setting up ball reversals and resets into different actions with better angles. Once he gets this easy shot going, a staple of any great center, he will be ready to take the next step toward being an MVP.
Carter Bryant’s minutes will become a talking point
Throughout the NBA, most fan bases have an unsung hero rookie whose stats look mediocre from afar, but whose game is endearing up close. As last season went on, Bryant became one of the team’s most entertaining players. The Spurs’ young wing would come in with swarming defense and occasionally some knockdown shooting and explosive plays at the rim. He gave Barnes a run for his minutes in the second half of the year and put in a valiant effort during the postseason, even if he struggled to defend stars without fouling.
He looks ready to show more of his game this season and put the ball on the floor, while having a better feel for defensive positioning and working the nuances of NBA officiating. He’s the exact kind of player who breaks into rotations as a second-year wing, but there’s hardly any room for him now. With Harris in place, it’s hard to see how Bryant’s 11.5 minutes-per-game average from last year gets a bump. But when he strings together a hot shooting month, there’s going to be vigorous debate over whether the team should make a trade to clear room for him.
Regression time coming in the wing department
Someone will take a step back this season. Someone almost always does. If Bryant is going to find more minutes, they will come at the expense of someone else, and someone is just about always playing banged up after a finals run, leading to a decline in productivity. Keldon Johnson — who is entering a contract year — and Devin Vassell are the longest-tenured Spurs and logged a lot of miles last year. Harris enters the season with a calf strain and is already in his mid-30s. Barnes’ productivity dropped off last season, but he has continued to get regular rotation minutes during the preseason while Harris has been out. Something won’t go according to plan.
Castle will be the Spurs’ second All-Star
Fox made the All-Star Game last season as the final injury replacement. Meanwhile, Harper is getting all the preseason attention. But quietly, Castle is best positioned to take the leap this season. Harper’s production will get a boost from his expected minutes increase, even if there will likely be an adjustment period as the league gets up to speed on his scouting report and forces him to find a new comfort zone. Castle has already gone through a lot of growing pains. The Spurs are making adjustments to accentuate his strengths.
There have been more cuts through the paint for him with Wembanyama and Luke Kornet holding the ball up toward the top of the key, which will get him easy buckets. He shot 38 percent last season on catch-and-shoot 3s, which will be more abundant if Harper and Wembanyama are playmaking more. He should get an extra step into driving lanes this season, which allows him to get to his floater more easily. The team seems intent on playing even more in transition, and he loves playing at that speed. Castle is at the sweet spot of experience and opportunity, giving him a good shot at an All-Star berth that was just out of reach last season.
The Spurs will win the title
I expect offensive execution will be a problem again in the playoffs. Based on recent trends, injuries will come into play. The teams that make the finals are often the healthiest good teams. Despite Fox’s ankle sprain, the Spurs were still the healthiest out of everyone last postseason.
And yet, their totality of talent and another solid step forward for Wembanyama should be enough to fight off a healthy Thunder team. We saw last year how the emotional and physical energy they expended reaching the finals hurt the Spurs against the Knicks. I’d expect them to be prepared for the moment this time.
They don’t need to maximize every ounce of their roster to win a title. We saw that last year. A pre-prime Wemby, injured Fox and rookie Harper were still enough to get to the precipice. The Spurs have so much room for growth. I think they will make enough jumps to win the title.
By Jared Weiss / The Athletic