By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2024-11-20 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
随着NBA西部联盟在本赛季迄今为止对东部联盟的交锋中继续保持统治地位（37胜18负），我们有必要看看各支球队在联盟总排名中的位置。
西部不仅顶尖球队实力强劲，而且连续第二个赛季展现出令人印象深刻的阵容深度。这意味着微乎其微的差距可能再次将直接晋级季后赛的六支球队与完全无缘附加赛的球队区分开来。赛季近一个月，排名上的胜场差就决定了这些命运。
整个赛季，我们将密切关注西部球队的季后赛席位争夺战。除了排名靠前的两支已经脱颖而出的球队（金州勇士队和俄克拉荷马雷霆队）以及排名垫底的四支不太可能进入季后赛的球队之外，其他球队的差距目前最多也只是微乎其微。
因此，第二梯队的季后赛竞争者仍然包括七支实力相近的球队。这其中既包括上赛季其他三个季后赛系列赛的胜者（包括卫冕西部冠军达拉斯独行侠队），也包括四支开局强劲的新兴球队。此外，还有一组更有可能进入附加赛的球队，以及一支前途未卜的球队。
让我们来看看各个梯队，梯队内的球队按字母顺序排列。
跳转到梯队：
当前的夺冠热门
季后赛的追逐者
着眼于附加赛
一个特例
着眼于未来
当前的夺冠热门
金州勇士队 (Golden State Warriors) (10胜3负)
上榜理由： 勇士队10胜3负的开局，包括本赛季首次以超过两分的优势战胜俄克拉荷马城雷霆队，让他们从西部的大部队中脱颖而出。金州勇士队阵容深度雄厚，足以应对常规赛，而且他们也为伤病情况留出了缓冲空间。
需要改进的地方： 谁是金州勇士队仅次于斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)的第二好球员？曾经是巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield)，他的三分球命中率高达46%，但他的状态已经开始回落。德雷蒙德·格林(Draymond Green)的组织能力和防守仍然是精英级别的，但勇士队缺乏第二个得分点可能会让他们继续活跃在交易市场上。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder) (11胜4负)
上榜理由： 尽管遭遇了两连败，雷霆队仍然以西部最佳的净胜分（场均+10.7分）并列西部榜首。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)正打出MVP级别的表现，而俄克拉荷马城雷霆队拥有NBA最顽强的防守。唯一的问题是雷霆队是否应该自成一个梯队。
需要改进的地方： 健康的内线球员。切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)的长期缺阵（髋部骨折后至少还要两个月）尤其不合时宜，而其他内线球员以赛亚·哈滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)（手部骨折）和杰林·威廉姆斯(Jaylin Williams)（腿筋拉伤）也因伤缺阵，这使得雷霆队的阵容非常矮小，最近的首发阵容最高只有6英尺6英寸。
季后赛的追逐者
达拉斯独行侠队 (Dallas Mavericks) (8胜7负)
上榜理由： 达拉斯在势均力敌的比赛中运气不佳（3分以内分差的比赛1胜4负），这使得独行侠队的总决赛后遗症看起来比实际情况更糟。达拉斯拥有西部第五好的净胜分，而且基于统计数据的预测仍然认为独行侠队很有可能获得前四的种子排名。
需要改进的地方： 卢卡·东契奇(Luka Dončić)的效率。东契奇预期的MVP争夺战还没有到来，他两分球（51%）和三分球（32%）的命中率都将是他近年来最低的。总的来说，东契奇49.5%的有效投篮命中率实际上将是他杰出职业生涯中最差的。
丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets) (8胜5负)
上榜理由： 尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokić)或许就能把掘金队拖到前四的种子排名。约基奇场均篮板（13.7个）和助攻（职业生涯最高的11.7个）均领跑NBA。尽管肯塔维奥斯·考德威尔-波普(Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)在自由市场离队，以及阿隆·戈登(Aaron Gordon)受伤，但只要约基奇在场，丹佛仍然占据统治地位。
需要改进的地方： 虽然年轻的掘金球员们已经站了出来，但丹佛的老将引援却失败了。拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)的两分球命中率只有36%，而达里奥·沙里奇(Dario Saric)很快就掉出了主教练迈克尔·马龙(Michael Malone)的轮换阵容。由于约基奇因个人原因连续缺席三场比赛，沙里奇在首发中锋位置上打得更有成效。
休斯顿火箭队 (Houston Rockets) (10胜5负)
上榜理由： 在上赛季强势收官之后，休斯顿10胜5负的开局并非侥幸。火箭队拥有强大的净胜分，令人羡慕的阵容深度，并且在使用ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）进行的模拟比赛中，以西部第四多的胜场数结束赛季。
需要改进的地方： 休斯顿的半场进攻仍然可能是球队的败笔。由于进攻篮板和强大的转换进攻，火箭队的进攻效率高于平均水平，但根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，他们在半场每回合得分上排名第23位。
洛杉矶湖人队 (Los Angeles Lakers) (10胜4负)
上榜理由： 湖人队在西部排名第三，并且主场保持不败。在新教练JJ·雷迪克(JJ Redick)的带领下，安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)打出了他近年来最高水平的表现，而勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)也轻松地转变为一个低使用率的角色，突出了他的组织能力。
需要改进的地方： 湖人队能大胜对手吗？他们整个赛季只有一场胜利超过10分，但却有三场失利至少达到这个分差，这解释了为什么湖人队+1.3的净胜分在西部排名第九。再加上相对有利的赛程，湖人队还没有从这个梯队中脱颖而出。
孟菲斯灰熊队 (Memphis Grizzlies) (8胜7负)
上榜理由： 灰熊队整个赛季只有两次全员首发，但上赛季让他们跌入乐透区的伤病并没有将他们挤出季后赛的竞争行列。孟菲斯以+6.4的强劲净胜分保持着高于50%的胜率。
需要改进的地方： 希望看到贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)能在球场上待更长时间。由于伤病和禁赛，莫兰特只参加了灰熊队过去117场常规赛中的25场。孟菲斯在这些比赛中取得了17胜8负（胜率.680）的战绩，相当于一个完整赛季56胜的节奏。
明尼苏达森林狼队 (Minnesota Timberwolves) (8胜6负)
上榜理由： 森林狼队刚刚结束西部决赛之旅，尽管最近遭遇三连败，包括在波特兰背靠背输球，但他们在西部的净胜分排名仍然保持在第七位。他们的位置有些不稳固，因为他们在BPI模拟比赛中在这个梯队中表现最差。
需要改进的地方： 我已经强调了迈克·康利(Mike Conley)的慢热开局以及明尼苏达除了8人核心轮换之外缺乏深度的问题，但防守也令人失望。森林狼队上赛季每回合防守效率排名联盟第一，但本赛季至今已下滑至第12位。
菲尼克斯太阳队 (Phoenix Suns) (9胜6负)
上榜理由： 凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)在阵时，太阳队取得了9胜2负的开局，这让他们在杜兰特小腿拉伤后连败四场的情况下仍然保持在西部前六。因此，在BPI模拟比赛中，太阳队的平均胜场数比达拉斯、孟菲斯或明尼苏达都多。
需要改进的地方： 太阳队是湖人队的更极端版本，他们的九场胜利中有八场是在六分以内取得的。事实上，太阳队在本赛季的总得分是负的，如果太阳队有任何希望进入西部前六，这种情况就不能继续下去。
着眼于附加赛
洛杉矶快船队 (LA Clippers) (8胜7负)
上榜理由： 快船队的胜率还没有超过50%两个胜场。科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)的回归，加上诺曼·鲍威尔(Norman Powell)继续以目前49%的命中率投进三分球，有可能让快船队进入前六的位置。目前，BPI显示他们是东西部联盟中最有可能进入附加赛的球队。
需要改进的地方： 即使鲍威尔开局火热，快船队的进攻效率也只排在第22位。35岁的詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden)在承担沉重的进攻任务下效率下降，而替补后卫小凯文·波特(Kevin Porter Jr.)的使用率为28%，真实投篮命中率却只有惨淡的.460。
萨克拉门托国王队 (Sacramento Kings) (8胜7负)
上榜理由： 萨克拉门托的开局有很多值得称道的地方，包括西部第六好的净胜分。然而，根据BPI的数据，这是在面对NBA第二轻松的赛程下取得的。在接下来面对联盟最艰难赛程的情况下，国王队需要给自己留出更多犯错的空间。
需要改进的地方： 基根·穆雷(Keegan Murray)的使用率创职业生涯新低，只有16%，而且由于他目前30%的三分球命中率，他的效率并没有得到提升。即使德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)、马利克·蒙克(Malik Monk)和多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis)都缺阵，穆雷在过去两场比赛中也只是一个旁观者，总共只得到12分。
为时已晚
新奥尔良鹈鹕队 (New Orleans Pelicans) (4胜11负)
上榜理由： 西部的深度几乎没有给慢热开局留下任何空间，而鹈鹕队进入附加赛的希望已经岌岌可危，因为他们遭遇了毁灭性的伤病，包括锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)（腿筋）、德章泰·穆雷(Dejounte Murray)（手）和赫伯特·琼斯(Herbert Jones)（肩）的缺阵。新奥尔良必须超过四支球队才能进入前十，目前还不清楚鹈鹕队何时才能恢复健康。
需要改进的地方： 从篮球的角度来分析新奥尔良队都很难，因为这支球队看起来与预期的截然不同。鹈鹕队出场时间最多的四名球员包括底薪签约的贾文特·格林(Javonte Green)和布兰登·波士顿(Brandon Boston Jr.)，后者是在训练营结束时通过放弃程序获得的双向合同。
着眼于未来
圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs) (7胜8负)
上榜理由： 维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)像上周50分这样的爆发表现可能会让马刺队进入附加赛的竞争行列，但他们的重点似乎仍然放在最大化文班的巅峰期。圣安东尼奥让4号秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)首发，他的两分球命中率只有46%，三分球命中率只有30%。
需要改进的地方： 马刺队高于平均水平的防守几乎完全归功于文班亚马的存在。根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，不包括他的阵容在联盟中排名倒数第七。
波特兰开拓者队 (Portland Trail Blazers) (6胜8负)
上榜理由： 令人印象深刻的6胜8负的开局并没有在潜在的表现上得到体现。由于在主场惨败给西部顶级球队，开拓者队-6.8的净胜分在西部排名第13位。在2025年选秀大会人才济济的情况下，在接下来的比赛中多输几场也并非坏事。
需要改进的地方： 根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，波特兰拥有联盟中效率最低的半场进攻，场均每回合得分仅为0.86分。开拓者队和排名第29位的新奥尔良鹈鹕队之间的差距比鹈鹕队和排名第25位的球队之间的差距还要大。
犹他爵士队 (Utah Jazz) (3胜11负)
上榜理由： 在本赛季开局阶段打得颇具竞争力之后，不用担心爵士队会为了更好的乐透签位而故意输球。他们已经沦落到西部垫底，只有华盛顿奇才队的净胜分比他们更差。
需要改进的地方： 在2023-24赛季防守效率排名垫底之后，爵士队已经进步到第29位。对手犯规率是犹他唯一一项没有排在NBA倒数几名的指标。
点击查看原文：NBA West tiers: The favorites and contenders in a stacked field
NBA West tiers: The favorites and contenders in a stacked field
With the NBA’s Western Conference continuing to dominate head-to-head matchups against the East (37-18 so far this season), it’s worth checking on how teams stack up on that side of the overall standings.
Not only is the West strong at the top, it boasts impressive depth for a second consecutive season. That means razor-thin margins could again separate the six teams that advance to the playoffs directly from some that miss the play-in tournament entirely. Nearly one month into the season, just a game in the standings separates those fates.
All season long, we’ll be keeping an eye on the West as teams battle for the postseason spots. Aside from the top two sides in the standings that have separated themselves (the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder) and the bottom four teams unlikely to make the playoffs, the differences are currently granular at best.
As a result, the second tier of playoff contenders still features seven teams bunched up together. That group combines last season’s other three playoff series winners (including the defending West champs, the Dallas Mavericks) with four up-and-comers off to strong starts. There’s also an additional tier of teams more likely headed to the play-in, as well as one team that still seems unclear.
Let’s go through the tiers, with teams sorted alphabetically within them.
Jump to a tier:\
Current favorites\
In the Playoff chase\
Staring at the play-in\
The one special case\
Building for the future
CURRENT FAVORITES
Golden State Warriors (10-3)
Why they’re here: The Warriors’ 10-3 start, including the first win over Oklahoma City this season by more than two points, has separated them from the giant West pack. Golden State’s deep rotation is well designed to handle the regular season, and the Warriors have given themselves a cushion in case of injuries.
What needs work: Who’s Golden State’s second-best player behind Stephen Curry? It has been Buddy Hield, who’s shooting a scorching 46% from 3-point range, but he has already started coming back to earth. Draymond Green’s playmaking and defense are still elite, but the Warriors’ lack of a second go-to scorer could keep them in the trade market.
Oklahoma City Thunder (11-4)
Why they’re here: Despite a two-game losing streak, the Thunder are tied atop the West with the conference’s best point differential (plus-10.7 per game). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, and Oklahoma City boasts the NBA’s stingiest defense. The only question is whether the Thunder belong in their own tier.
What needs work: Healthy centers. Chet Holmgren’s extended absence (at least two more months after suffering a hip fracture) is particularly poorly timed with fellow big men Isaiah Hartenstein (hand fracture) and Jaylin Williams (hamstring strain) also sidelined, leaving the Thunder dangerously small with recent starting lineups topping out at 6-foot-6.
IN THE PLAYOFF CHASE
Dallas Mavericks (8-7)
Why they’re here: Dallas’ tough luck in close games (1-4 in games decided by three points or fewer) has made the Mavericks’ Finals hangover look worse than it really is. Dallas boasts the West’s fifth-best point differential, and stats-based projections still have the Mavericks strongly in the mix for a top-four seed.
What needs work: Luka Doncic’s efficiency. An anticipated run at the MVP award hasn’t yet materialized for Doncic, whose accuracy on both 2s (51%) and 3s (32%) would be his lowest in years. Overall, Doncic’s 49.5% effective field goal percentage would actually be the worst of his standout career.
Denver Nuggets (8-5)
Why they’re here: Nikola Jokic might just drag the Nuggets to a top-four seed. Jokic leads the NBA in both rebounds (13.7) and assists (a career-high 11.7) per game. Despite the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency and an injury to Aaron Gordon, Denver continues to dominate with Jokic on the court.
What needs work: While the young Nuggets have stepped up, Denver’s veteran additions have flopped. Russell Westbrook is shooting just 36% on 2s, and Dario Saric quickly fell out of coach Michael Malone’s rotation. Saric has been more productive starting at center with Jokic missing three straight games because of personal reasons.
Houston Rockets (10-5)
Why they’re here: In the wake of a strong finish to last season, there’s nothing fluky about Houston’s 10-5 start. The Rockets have a strong point differential, boast enviable depth and finish with the fourth-most wins in the West in simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI).
What needs work: Houston’s half-court offense could still be the team’s undoing. The Rockets boast an above-average offensive rating thanks to their offensive rebounding and strong transition game, but they rank 23rd in half-court points per play, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Los Angeles Lakers (10-4)
Why they’re here: The Lakers are third in the West standings and unbeaten at home. Anthony Davis has produced at his highest level in years under new coach JJ Redick, and LeBron James has transitioned easily to a lower-usage role that highlights his playmaking ability.
What needs work: Can the Lakers blow teams out? They have just one win all season by more than 10 points but three losses by at least that margin, explaining why the Lakers’ plus-1.3 differential ranks ninth in the West. Add in a relatively favorable schedule and the Lakers haven’t elevated out of this tier.
Memphis Grizzlies (8-7)
Why they’re here: The Grizzlies have had their full group of starters available only twice all season, yet the injuries that doomed them to the lottery a season ago haven’t pushed them out of the playoff mix. Memphis is rolling along better than .500 with a strong plus-6.4 point differential.
What needs work: It would be nice to see Ja Morant stay on the court for an extended period. Between injuries and suspensions, Morant has played just 25 of the Grizzlies’ past 117 regular-season games. Memphis has gone 17-8 (.680) in those games, a 56-win pace over a full season.
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-6)
Why they’re here: The Timberwolves are coming off a trip to the Western Conference finals and still rank a respectable seventh in the West in point differential despite in a recent three-game skid that included back-to-back losses at Portland. Their spot is somewhat tenuous as they fare worst in the BPI simulations in this tier.
What needs work: I’ve highlighted Mike Conley’s slow start and Minnesota’s lack of depth outside a tight eight-man rotation, but the defense has been a disappointment, too. The Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense on a per-possession basis last season has slipped to 12th so far.
Phoenix Suns (9-6)
Why they’re here: A 9-2 start with Kevin Durant in the lineup gave Phoenix the cushion to drop four in a row since he suffered a calf strain and remain in the West’s top six. As a result, the Suns win more games in the average BPI simulation than Dallas, Memphis or Minnesota.
What needs work: The Suns are even a more extreme version of the Lakers, with eight of their nine wins by six points or fewer. Phoenix has actually been outscored on the season, which can’t continue if the Suns have any realistic hope of finishing in the West’s top six.
STARING AT THE PLAY-IN
LA Clippers (8-7)
Why they’re here: The Clippers haven’t been more than two games from .500 yet. It’s possible Kawhi Leonard’s return, paired with Norman Powell continuing to make 3s at his current 49% clip, could put the Clippers in top-six position. For now, the BPI says they’re the team in either conference most likely to make the play-in.
What needs work: Even with Powell’s hot start, the Clippers rank 22nd in offensive rating. James Harden’s efficiency has strained under the heavy offensive load he’s carrying at age 35, and backup guard Kevin Porter Jr. sports a 28% usage with a dismal .460 true shooting percentage.
Sacramento Kings (8-7)
Why they’re here: There’s a lot to like about Sacramento’s start, including the West’s sixth-best point differential. However, that has come against the NBA’s second-easiest schedule, according to the BPI. With the league’s toughest schedule in front of them, the Kings needed to give themselves more margin for error.
What needs work: Keegan Murray’s usage is a career-low 16%, and he hasn’t gotten an efficiency boost because of his 30% 3-point shooting thus far. Even with DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and Domantas Sabonis all out, Murray has been a bystander the past two games, totaling 12 points.
ALREADY GETTING LATE
New Orleans Pelicans (4-11)
Why they’re here: The West’s depth offers little room for a slow start, and the Pelicans’ hopes of making the play-in are already in jeopardy because of their crushing injuries, including absences from Zion Williamson (hamstring), Dejounte Murray (hand) and Herbert Jones (shoulder). New Orleans has to pass four teams to get in the top 10, and it’s unclear how soon the Pelicans might get healthy.
What needs work: It’s hard to even analyze New Orleans from a basketball standpoint because this group looks so different from intended. The Pelicans’ top four players in minutes include minimum signing Javonte Green and Brandon Boston Jr., who was claimed off waivers for a two-way contract at the end of training camp.
BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE
San Antonio Spurs (7-8)
Why they’re here: A Victor Wembanyama breakout along the lines of last week’s 50-point performance could lift the Spurs into the play-in picture, but their focus seems to remain on maximizing Wembanyama’s prime. San Antonio is starting No. 4 pick Stephon Castle, who’s shooting just 46% on 2s and 30% on 3s.
What needs work: The Spurs’ above-average defense can be tied almost entirely to Wembanyama’s presence. Lineups that don’t include him have ranked in the seventh percentile leaguewide, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Portland Trail Blazers (6-8)
Why they’re here: An impressive 6-8 start hasn’t been matched in terms of underlying performance. By virtue of lopsided losses at home to the West’s top teams, the Blazers’ minus-6.8 differential ranks 13th in the West. Ahead of a loaded 2025 draft, losing more often the rest of the way isn’t so bad.
What needs work: Portland has the league’s least effective half-court offense by a wide margin, averaging just 0.86 points per play, according to Cleaning the Glass. The gap between the Blazers and No. 29 New Orleans is larger than between the Pelicans and 25th place.
Utah Jazz (3-11)
Why they’re here: No need to worry this season about the Jazz trying to lose their way into better lottery odds after a competitive start. They’ve begun in the West cellar, and only the Washington Wizards have a worse point differential.
What needs work: After finishing last in defensive rating in 2023-24, the Jazz have improved all the way to 29th. Opponent foul rate is the only category in which Utah ranks outside the NBA’s bottom handful of teams.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN