By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-06-27 09:00:41
NBA自由球员市场： 前25名 | 得分后卫 | 小前锋 | 控球后卫
自由球员大前锋市场看起来相当不错，特别是如果你对一位40岁出头的时代巨星感兴趣的话。虽然在勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 之后市场成色有所下降，但根据我的BORD$估值，今年的自由球员中仍包含多位首发候选人，以及其他几位非常适合担任高上场时间替补的球员。(点击此处了解更多关于该评估方法的信息。)
与以往一样，我将所有因球员选项、球队选项和无保障合同而产生的自由球员及潜在自由球员都纳入了讨论，但排除了一些荒谬的特例——即球员绝无可能被裁，且（同样重要的是）也绝无可能通过拒绝选项并签署新合同来进行其他薪资空间操作的情况。
（PO = 球员选项；TO = 球队选项；NG = 无保障；TONG = 球队选项且无保障；PG = 部分保障；POPG = 球员选项且部分保障；R = 受限制自由球员； R-2w = 受限制双向合同球员***）***
第一档：顶薪球员
无。
第二档：高于中产特例，低于顶薪
1. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers: $31,960,618
詹姆斯仍然是一位极具价值的球员，我的衰老算法可能会低估他在2026-27赛季的潜在贡献；毕竟在“高使用率前锋进入42岁赛季”这一课题上，我们确实没有任何历史数据可供参考。目前来看，他很可能会寻求一份一年期的合同（由于38岁条款的限制，他无法签署超过三年的合同），因此关键问题在于薪资（在一定程度上）和适配度（很大程度上）。
要解决适配度问题，可能需要他在薪资上做出巨大让步，因为那些既需要詹姆斯又有机会争夺重要荣誉的球队，通常也不是那种拥有充裕薪资空间的队伍。即使重返湖人也面临复杂局面，因为给他开出高薪将使湖人失去一些薪资空间方案，而等到未来几个夏天奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的薪水达到现在的三倍左右时，湖人将不再拥有这些空间选择。
2. Julian Champagnie, San Antonio (TONG): $25,726,203
马刺在2026-27赛季还不会是一支昂贵的球队，但两年内，一旦维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)、迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 都达到提前续约的资格，他们的薪资总额将变得极其惊人。
因此，他们有明显的动机去取消朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 下赛季廉价的球队选项，并与他签下一份金额逐年递减的新合同，而不是等到他在2027年成为完全自由球员后去支付全额高薪。
这可能意味着要承诺一份大约五年1亿美元左右的合同，即在球队选项之外，再支付他略低于九位数的新资金，并将这些钱分摊到五个赛季中。为了进一步平滑薪资空间占用，圣安东尼奥马刺可以让合同从最大值开始，并让他的年薪每赛季递减8%。
第三档：中产特例级别球员
3. Tobias Harris, Detroit: $19,715,982
友情提示：BORD$估值不包括季后赛。托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris) 拥有一个扎实的常规赛，但在底特律活塞的季后赛征程中，他真正证明了自己的价值——在杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 表现低迷期间，他成为了活塞队的第二进攻选择。通过这种方式，他表明无论活塞计划如何处理未来的薪资空间，白白放走哈里斯都不是一个可行的选择，除非他们能在同一位置上获得全明星级别的升级。
说了这么多，无非是想表达：即使即将年满34岁，哈里斯也很有可能获得一份相对接近他2024年在底特律最初签下的两年5000万美元的合同——这次可能更接近4000万而不是5000万，但仍将超过预计1500万美元的中产特例。底特律的薪资空间可以轻松承受这个范围内的数字。
4. John Collins, LA Clippers: $18,890,305
约翰·科林斯 (John Collins) 直到9月下旬才满29岁，在离开亚特兰大老鹰后，他已经连续打出了三个扎实的首发级赛季。关键在于他在三分球投射上的进步，在2024-25赛季投出了39.9%的命中率，在2025-26赛季更是达到了40.6%。这种空间属性使他能够胜任大前锋位置，并减少了作为矮个中锋对顺下攻筐的依赖。
快船拥有科林斯的鸟权，但在经历了一个令人失望的2025-26赛季后，他们可能会选择腾出薪资空间的方案，而不是保留原班人马。如果他离开洛杉矶，他很可能会成为那些拥有全额非税中产特例球队的目标，尤其是那些需要首发大前锋或顶级前场替补的球队。考虑到他的年龄，球队可能希望签下三年，或者争取签下两年。
5. Draymond Green, Golden State, (PO): $13,679,047
德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 仍然是同位置上最好的防守者之一，但在进攻端，他的价值已经暴跌，以至于他的整体价值定位大约在非税中产特例左右。
这给勇士带来了一个有趣的局面，因为格林在2026-27赛季拥有价值2770万美元的球员选项。虽然如果他拒绝该选项并以更低的年薪重新签下一份更长的合同，将有助于勇士控制奢侈税线，但他2026-27赛季的薪水与他的BORD$估值之间也存在相当大的差距。他会接受一份三年4500万到5000万美元的合同吗？如果不会，那么他选择执行选项对勇士来说可能也同样可以接受……特别是如果金州勇士能够接受将格林作为潜在的到期合同，在赛季中期交易中用于重塑未来阵容的话。
6. Precious Achiuwa, Sacramento: $12,934,026
我知道你们中很多人去年没有看国王队的比赛，我确实不能怪你们，但普雷舍斯·阿丘瓦 (Precious Achiuwa) 经历了一个突破性的赛季，是联盟中进步最快的球员之一。虽然他在拉开空间方面依然无法提供太多帮助，但他的篮板、终结能力和积极性使他成为了一名极具价值的球员。
国王没有他的鸟权，因此他们必须使用非税中产特例才能签回他。考虑到经常受伤的德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter) 是阵容中唯一的大前锋，签回他显得非常迫切。然而，萨克拉门托的税收状况也让这成为一个有趣的困境。国王可能不得不裁掉德马尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)，仅仅是为了降到第一档奢侈税线以下，从而获得使用全额中产特例的资格。除非阿丘瓦的市场最终远低于这个BORD$估值，否则这可能会给其他竞价者打开大门。
7. Dean Wade, Cleveland: $12,835,954
克利夫兰的财务状况将使留住迪恩·韦德 (Dean Wade) 变得非常具有挑战性，除非骑士队决定不顾一切，直接冲破所有的奢侈税线。
进入休赛期，在给韦德支付一分钱之前，骑士就已经超过了预计的第二档奢侈税线。虽然向下调整詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 的薪水，以及交易或延伸裁掉丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schröder) 可以减轻一些压力，但要为韦德算出一份达到八位数合同的账目依然很困难。这可能会让这位3D前锋容易被开出优厚报价的竞争对手挖走。
这里需要注意的一点是：韦德频繁的伤病可能会限制他的市场行情，使其略低于BORD$的估值。在过去的五个赛季中，他没有一个赛季的常规赛出场数达到60场。
第四档：低于中产特例，高于底薪
8. Harrison Barnes, San Antonio: $10,978,562
随着尚帕尼和布莱恩特的持续成长，哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 似乎注定要在圣安东尼奥被边缘化，他在总决赛中的角色已经萎缩到几乎为零。
然而，也许有办法在短期内留住这位34岁的老将，给他一份丰厚的合同，并利用马刺拥有的鸟权。圣安东尼奥在预计的奢侈税线以下拥有堆积如山的薪资空间，但当文班亚马可能在2027-28赛季生效的超级顶薪开始执行时，这一局面将发生戏剧性的变化。为了利用这一点，马刺可以与巴恩斯签下一份一年的“气球合同”，在截止日期前作为交易特例使用，甚至可以在今年夏天通过先签后换的方式交易他，且仅保障第一年（先签后换的合同必须至少为期三年），从而换回一名即战力球员。
9. DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento (PG): $10,371,138
正如我最近在关于球员和球队选项的文章中所指出的那样，国王面临着一个令人困惑的决定，因为德罗赞在2026-27赛季价值2570万美元的合同中包含1000万美元的保障金额，而国王在重建年份规避奢侈税线的最佳现实途径，要么是交易他，要么是裁掉他并使用延伸条款分摊合同。
一个技术性的细节：如果德罗赞被裁并签约其他球队，他下一份合同的大小将至关重要，因为国王在计算奢侈税时，可以抵消超出一年老将底薪（预计为220万美元）部分50%的额度。
萨克拉门托在老将德马尔·德罗赞身上有一个有趣的抉择。 (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)
10. Dom Barlow, Philadelphia (TO): $9,557,414
多姆·巴洛 (Dom Barlow) 去年凭借双向合同打出名堂，赢得了轮换席位，而且他现在只有23岁。如果76人无法在自由球员市场上获得升级人选，他明年可能会成为首发。
他还拥有一份仅为340万美元的球队选项，这本可能是一个经典的“拒绝并重新签约”的情况，但有两个制约因素。首先，在不动用特例空间的情况下，76人最多只能给他开出410万美元的合同，因此巴洛可能会觉得直接履行完合同并在明年进入自由市场会更好。其次，76人自身在奢侈税线边缘的闪转腾挪可能已经足够复杂，以至于在巴洛身上哪怕是70万美元的差额也可能产生实质性的影响。
11. Jonathan Kuminga, Atlanta, (TO): $9,409,216
老鹰对乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 拥有价值2430万美元的球队选项。显然，从纯粹的价值角度来看，执行这个选项毫无意义，但这其中有很多变数。
首先，亚特兰大在奢侈税线以下有足够的空间，老鹰可能会考虑执行该选项，以便在赛季中期将其作为一个巨大的交易特例来使用，甚至让库明加在此数字的基础上追加一份合理的提前续约合同，以锁定他的未来。老鹰也可以拒绝该选项，并与库明加签下一份更直接的合同，但他与杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 的技术特点重叠，这使得他的适配度显得有些尴尬，除非他被限制在15分钟的替补角色中。最后，老鹰也有一些腾出薪资空间的方案，这可能会促使他们直接拒绝该选项并分道扬镳。
12. Rui Hachimura, L.A. Lakers: $9,398,473
八村垒 (Rui Hachimura) 已经成为了一名极其出色的射手，在过去的两个赛季中，他的三分球命中率分别达到了44.3%和41.3%，但他出手次数不够多，还无法成为一个真正令人胆寒的空间威胁。
除此之外，他的比赛表现扎实但缺乏亮点，这使得他作为首发时显得有些吃力，而更适合在两个前锋位置之间切换的替补角色。八村垒的这一BORD$估值非常有趣，因为如果湖人放弃他的鸟权以最大化其薪资空间（这看起来很有可能），这个数字将完美契合湖人940万美元的空间特例。空间特例的最大报价是一份三年2900万美元的合同，这看起来很合理。
13. Kelly Oubre, Philadelphia: $8,856,031
有人会好奇，是否存在凯利·乌布雷 (Kelly Oubre) 与费城重新签约，同时76人仍能使用非税中产特例来引进人才并避税的方案。
唉，这很难两全其美，乌布雷可能会在其他地方找到更好的归宿，在那里他可以在自己天然的小前锋位置上打更多时间，而不是作为一个矮个大前锋。这位30岁的球员是一位防守正资产，上赛季三分球命中率为36%。在目前这个阶段，让他担任首发可能有些勉强，但他作为第三前锋肯定会有市场。
14. Mo Gueye, Atlanta, (TONG): $8,336,432
莫·格耶 (Mo Gueye) 本赛季拥有一份240万美元的无保障球队选项，这可能会为老鹰创造“拒绝并重新签约”的方案。老鹰在奢侈税线以下有足够的空间，他们可以拒绝该选项，并立即与他签下一份前置型的新合同；即使他们试图成为一支拥有薪资空间的球队，由于他的底薪占位很小，他们也可以进行类似的操作。如果是这样，BORD$估值表明，对于这位仍在成长中的防守悍将来说，一份三年2000万美元左右的合同将是替代2026-27赛季那份廉价合同的公平方式。
15. GG Jackson, Memphis (TO): $7,167,651
GG·杰克逊 (GG Jackson) 拥有一份240万美元的球队选项，而灰熊和上面的老鹰一样，在奢侈税线以下拥有大量的空间（更不用说涉及他底薪占位的一些薪资空间方案了）。然而，杰克逊在孟菲斯的表现非常不稳定，这可能会让灰熊在与他签下长约之前三思。另一个推迟签约的原因是，在2027年，灰熊将拥有超过顶薪额度的薪资空间，而杰克逊届时只有底薪占位，尽管到那时他将成为一名完全自由球员。
16. Kenrich Williams, Oklahoma City (TO): $6,326,713
“肯尼·哈斯尔” (Kenny Hustle) 感觉就像是雷霆的终身成员，他在季后赛中证明了自己依然能贡献一些扎实的出场时间。唉，俄克拉荷马城即将受到奢侈税线的沉重打击，再也无法承受让一位“更衣室氛围组”球员拿着710万美元（他的球队选项价值）的薪水了。预计雷霆会拒绝该选项，并尝试与肯里奇·威廉姆斯 (Kenrich Williams) 签下一份金额更低、年限更长的合同，大概在三年1500万美元左右。
17. Jonathan Isaac, Orlando (PG): $6,205,187
乔纳森·艾萨克 (Jonathan Isaac) 在2026-27赛季价值1450万美元的合同中拥有800万美元的保障金额。这位经常受伤的大个子在健康时依然是防守端的活力源泉，但他有限的进攻手段降低了他的价值。
对于一支能够承受他缺席比赛的球队来说，他是一个极佳的前场奢侈品，但那支球队可能不是魔术。作为联盟中薪资空间最受限的球队之一，奥兰多可以通过将艾萨克的保障金额分摊到七个赛季来缓解其奢侈税线的压力，这之所以可行，是因为他在本赛季之后合同还剩两年无保障。奥兰多必须在6月28日合同转为全额保障之前做出决定。
18. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Memphis (TO): $5,477,704
在上赛季为灰熊效力双向合同期间表现出色后，“底薪O”（O-minimum）拥有一份250万美元的球队选项。由于灰熊伤兵满营，他有很多出场时间是在临时拼凑的阵容中担任矮个中锋，但奥利维耶-马克桑斯·普罗斯珀 (Olivier-Maxence Prosper) 真正的卖点在于他是一个充满活力的侧翼，能防守、能快攻并能投中空位投篮。普罗斯珀上赛季的三分球命中率为40.5%，如果他的真实能力水平接近这个数字，他最差也是一个轮换边缘球员。
作为一名非鸟权自由球员，除非灰熊动用特例空间，否则他们只能在普罗斯珀底薪的基础上给予适度涨薪，因此“拒绝并重新签约”的协议可能无法实现。但我们可以看到，利用孟菲斯一部分非税中产特例或空间特例签下一份三年1300万美元的合同，对双方都可能是有利的……即使“特例O”（O-room exception）这个外号叫起来没那么顺口。
19. Guerschon Yabusele, Chicago: $5,336,603
盖尔雄·亚布塞莱 (Guerschon Yabusele) 在尼克斯的表现令人失望，但他代表公牛出战的26场比赛中的表现，与他在2024-25赛季在费城时的表现更为一致。他在纽约的失败很大程度上是由于三分线外异常糟糕的表现（在尼克斯期间仅为28.6%），而这个BORD$估值几乎与他为了完成交易到公牛而放弃的575万美元球员选项相匹配。他的市场行情可能更接近底薪，而不是他一年前获得的纳税人中产特例，但从统计数据来看，他基本上还是那个球员。
盖尔雄·亚布塞莱在尼克斯时期表现挣扎，但在芝加哥迎来了反弹。 (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
20. Jeremy Sochan, New York: $5,199,830
杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 仍然不会投篮，而且可能永远也练不出来，让他打控球后卫是马刺重建过程中的一个低谷。然而，他身上具备活力防守者和冲击篮筐者的特质，尤其是与一位能拉开空间的中锋搭档时。索汉目前只有22岁，他需要加入一支重建中的球队，签下一份廉价合同并获得一些培养时间。显然，那支球队不会是纽约，但在合适的环境下，他仍然可以提供轮换价值。
21. Josh Minott, Brooklyn (TONG): $5,157,623
作为“米诺特岛”上的最后一名居民，我预计布鲁克林会执行他260万美元的选项，并在本赛季将他留在阵容中。在这里，这位23岁的球员有望获得在明尼苏达和波士顿无法得到的出场时间和锻炼机会。乔什·米诺特 (Josh Minott) 刚进联盟时是个没有投射能力的球员，但上赛季他投出了41.6%的三分球命中率。虽然样本量很小，但如果他在一整个赛季中能投出接近这个水平的表现，他就会成为一名优秀的球员。
22. Jabari Walker, Philadelphia (PG): $4,825,451
76人去年有些奇怪地与贾巴里·沃克 (Jabari Walker) 签下了一份带有25万美元保障金额的合同，而不是可拒绝的球队选项，这基本上让费城锁定了他，要以258万美元的价格再留他一年。BORD$估值表明，相比于裁掉他，这显然是一个更容易让人接受的选择，尤其是对于一支无论如何都要用底薪球员来填补他位置的球队来说。
Tier 5: Good minimums
23. Kyle Anderson, Minnesota
“大锤”凯尔·安德森 (Kyle Anderson) 的适配度严重依赖于球队阵容，因为只有当场上其他四个人都能投篮，且他能获得持球或担任短顺下的机会时，他才能发挥最大作用。他仍然是切球的大师和防守端的组织者，即使没有三分球，他上赛季的真实命中率也达到了57.3%。
24. Trendon Watford, Philadelphia (TO)
作为一个打法类似于安德森、且上赛季同样拥有57.3%真实命中率的球员，特伦登·沃特福德 (Trendon Watford) 在三分线内持球时表现最好。然而，随着上赛季的进行，他逐渐失去了信任，76人面临着是否执行他280万美元球队选项的有趣决定。如果费城想让他回来，拒绝该选项并签下一份一年240万美元的老将底薪，将有助于在奢侈税线方面节省一些开支。
25. Jae’Sean Tate, Houston
杰肖恩·泰特 (Jae’Sean Tate) 可以防守外线的任何位置，并且打球充满活力，但他职业生涯的三分球命中率仅为30.9%，且持球创造力有限。这使得他在已经挤满了类似类型球员的休斯顿阵容中很难获得出场时间，但他能在其他阵容中发挥作用。一支需要额外增加一名强硬侧翼防守者的季后赛级别球队，应该将泰特作为底薪目标。
26. Nic Batum, LA Clippers (TO)
考虑到尼古拉斯·巴图姆 (Nic Batum) 已经37岁，他600万美元的球队选项似乎显得太贵了，因为他已经成为了一名使用率极低的球员（上赛季仅为9.6%！），只有在被放空时才会出手。但他确实能投进这些球（三分命中率为40.4%），并且能防守自己的位置。
27. Leonard Miller, Chicago (TONG)
莱纳德·米勒 (Leonard Miller) 拥有一份240万美元的球队选项，如果执行，该选项将变为一半保障，并在6月30日转为全额保障。无论通过何种机制，他都值得被留下来。在公牛队整体向乐透区滑落的过程中，米勒的表现相当不错，因此执行该选项看起来很有可能。这位左手将上赛季在两支球队效力期间的两分球命中率达到了69.3%，如果他在一整个赛季中能打出接近这个水平的终结表现，那么无论他那弧度极低的三分球能否稳定入网，他都具有价值。
保障这240万美元是留住米勒最直接的方式，但芝加哥也可以拒绝该选项，并利用他的底薪占位，然后作为非鸟权自由球员，承诺一份更长的底薪或接近底薪的合同（可能带有部分保障和球队选项年）。
28. Jonathan Mogbo, Toronto (TO)
乔纳森·莫博 (Jonathan Mogbo) 在他的第二个赛季中彻底掉出了轮换，仅出场了249分钟。猛龙对他拥有230万美元的球队选项，考虑到他们在大前锋位置上人满为患，他们可能会选择其他方向。莫博可能需要开始投中三分球才能获得轮换角色，但他是一个防守端的制造混乱者，也可以成为进攻端的衔接点，并且会非常适合在同位置有更多生存空间的快节奏阵容。
29. Kevin Love, Utah
凯文·乐福 (Kevin Love) 在训练营开始前将满38岁，并且已经进入了职业生涯的“老将导师”阶段，但他仍然能提供罕见的三分投射与顶级篮板能力的结合，并且能传出比赛中最好的长传。他可能会非常适合作为争冠球队的第五大个子。
在合适的球队中，凯文·乐福作为第五大个子可能仍能发挥余热。 (Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images)
30. Georges Niang, did not play in 2025-26
乔治斯·尼昂 (Georges Niang) 上赛季因膝伤恢复缺席了全部比赛，他的合同在联盟中多次易手，最终被孟菲斯裁掉。现年33岁的他似乎不太可能重新获得稳定的轮换地位，并且必须证明自己有足够的移动能力来进行防守，但他也在其七个NBA赛季中的六个赛季里投出了40%的三分球命中率。
31. Kobe Brown, Indiana (R)
步行者这个失落赛季的一个好处是，在快船板凳席末端坐了两年半之后，科比·布朗 (Kobe Brown) 获得了一些机会。他并没有展现出统治力，但他投出了43.3%的三分命中率，如果他能减少失误，他可能会拥有一席之地。步行者最多只能给他开出479.2万美元的合同，这是快船在交易他之前拒绝的第四年选项金额，但这不会引发竞价大战。
第六档：边缘球员、双向合同球员
32. Pete Nance, Milwaukee (NG)
上赛季在雄鹿逐渐失去竞争力的过程中，皮特·南斯 (Pete Nance) 签下了一份正式合同，作为空间型四号位，他的表现足够高效（三分命中率42.0%），这可能会让他拥有持久的立足之地。他本赛季价值250万美元的合同将于7月4日转为保障。如果被裁，他也有资格签下双向合同。
33. Chris Boucher, last with Utah
克里斯·布歇 (Chris Boucher) 上赛季仅打了九场比赛，在被交易到爵士后被裁掉，但他2024-25赛季在多伦多猛龙的表现很扎实，作为第五大个子可能仍有一些价值。
34. Anthony Gill, Washington
安东尼·吉尔 (Anthony Gill) 是一个矮个大个子，他留在阵容中更多是因为他在场下的领导力，而不是他在场上的表现。如果他回归，那他将继续扮演更衣室“老大哥”（unc）的角色。
35. Jeff Green, Houston
杰夫·格林 (Jeff Green) 上赛季仅出战了30场比赛，共计175分钟（这还不包括他在对阵湖人系列赛第三场中令人震惊的替补登场），并且各项数据均创下职业生涯新低。今年夏天他也将年满40岁，因此他的职业生涯可能即将走到终点。
36. Doug McDermott, Sacramento
我不太清楚道格·麦克德莫特 (Doug McDermott) 是如何在一整个34岁的赛季里都坐在国王板凳席末端的，但他要在35岁赛季继续留在任何球队的板凳席上，都将面临巨大的挑战。
37. Maxi Kleber, L.A. Lakers
马克西·克莱伯 (Maxi Kleber) 在43场比赛中仅投中33球，并且连续第四个赛季效率值（PER）仅为个位数。现年34岁的他，下一站很可能是回到欧洲。
38. Mouhamadou Gueye, Chicago (TONG)
不要与亚特兰大老鹰的莫·格耶混淆，穆罕默德·格耶 (Mouhamadou Gueye) 在赛季末签下了一份填补阵容名额的合同，并且仍有资格签下双向合同。公牛肯定会现在拒绝该选项，或者稍后裁掉他，除非他的合同需要用于交易。他们仍然可以通过双向合同签回他。
39. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
萨纳西斯·阿德托昆博 (Thanasis Antetokounmpo) 的雄鹿生涯很可能已经结束，但我猜测他可能会在今年夏天晚些时候成为迈阿密热火的首要自由球员目标。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA free agency 2026: Power forward market is solid, but LeBron James is lone star
NBA free agency 2026: Power forward market is solid, but LeBron James is lone star
NBA free-agent market: Top 25 | shooting guards | small forwards | point guards
The free agent power forward market looks pretty good, especially if you’re interested in a generational superstar in his early 40s. While the market drops off after LeBron James, this year’s crop still includes multiple starter candidates and several others who are ideal as high-minute bench players based on my BORD$ valuations. (More on the methodology here.)
As always, I’ve included all free agents and potential free agents due to player options, team options and non-guaranteed contracts, except for absurd cases where there is no chance of a player being waived and — importantly — also no chance for other cap shenanigans by declining options and signing new contracts.
(PO = player option; TO = team option; NG = non-guaranteed; TONG = team option, non-guaranteed; PG = partial guarantee; POPG = player option, partial guarantee; R = restricted; R-2w = restricted two-way***)***
Tier 1: Max guys
None.
Tier 2: More than MLE, less than max
1. LeBron James, L.A. Lakers: $31,960,618
James is still an extremely valuable player, and my aging algorithm may underrate his potential contributions in 2026-27; we really have no data to work with as far as “high-usage forward entering his age-42 season” is concerned. At this point, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal (he can’t sign for more than three because of the over-38 rule), so the questions are about money (somewhat) and fit (quite a bit).
Resolving the latter part could require a major haircut on the former, as the type of teams that could both use James and have a reasonable chance of contending for something important are also not the type to have extra cap space lying around. Even a return to the Lakers is complicated, as paying him would take L.A. out of some cap-room scenarios that won’t be available to the Lakers in future summers when Reaves is making roughly triple what he is now.
2. Julian Champagnie, San Antonio (TONG): $25,726,203
The Spurs will not be an expensive team in 2026-27 but will be extremely expensive within two years once Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant all become extension eligible.
Thus, they have an obvious incentive to wipe out Champagnie’s cheapo team option for the coming season and sign him to a new contract for descending dollars, instead of waiting until he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2027 and then paying full freight.
That likely entails committing to something like five years and $100 million or so, i.e. paying him just south of nine figures in new money in addition to the team option and spreading that money over five seasons. To further smooth the cap hit, San Antonio could start the contract at its maximal value and decline his salary by 8 percent each season.
Tier 3: MLE guys
3. Tobias Harris, Detroit: $19,715,982
Reminder: BORD$ doesn’t include the playoffs. Harris had a solid regular season but really proved his worth in Detroit’s playoff run, operating as the Pistons’ second option while Jalen Duren fizzled. In doing so, he exhibited that, whatever the Pistons plan to do with their future cap, just letting Harris walk isn’t a viable option unless they’re getting a star-caliber upgrade at the same position.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying that, even pushing age 34, Harris seems a good bet to get something relatively close to the two-year, $50 million deal he originally inked in Detroit in 2024 — maybe closer to 40 than 50 this time, but still in excess of the projected $15 million midlevel exception. Detroit’s cap sheet can comfortably handle him on a number in that range.
4. John Collins, LA Clippers: $18,890,305
Collins won’t turn 29 until late September and has put together three straight solid, starting-caliber seasons after leaving Atlanta. The key is his development as a 3-point shooter, hitting 39.9 percent in 2024-25 and 40.6 percent in 2025-26. That spacing component has allowed him to play power forward and made him less dependent on rim-running as an undersized center.
The Clippers have Bird rights on Collins but could choose cap-room scenarios instead of bringing the band back after a disappointing 2025-26. If he leaves LA, he’d be a likely target for teams with their full non-taxpayer MLE, especially those needing a starting power forward or a top frontcourt sub. At his age, teams would probably want to keep at it three years and maybe angle for two.
5. Draymond Green, Golden State, (PO): $13,679,047
Green is still one of the best defenders at his position, but offensively, his value has cratered to the point that his overall value proposition is around the non-taxpayer MLE.
That makes for an interesting situation for the Warriors, because Green has a player option for $27.7 million for 2026-27. While it would help the Warriors manage the tax aprons if he were to decline the option and re-sign a longer deal for lower money, there’s also a pretty big gap here between his 2026-27 salary and his BORD$ value. Would he take a deal for three years and $45 million to $50 million? If not, the Warriors might do just as well if he opts in … particularly if Golden State can stomach the idea of Green as a potential expiring contract in a midseason deal to reshape the roster for the future.
6. Precious Achiuwa, Sacramento: $12,934,026
I know a lot of you didn’t watch the Kings last year, and I can’t really blame you, but Achiuwa had a breakout season and was one of the most improved players in the league. He still won’t give you much as a floor spacer, but his rebounding, finishing and activity make him a valuable player.
The Kings have no Bird rights on him, so they would have to use their non-taxpayer midlevel exception to bring him back, something that’s highly desirable given that the oft-injured De’Andre Hunter is the only other power forward on the roster. However, Sacramento’s tax position also makes this an interesting dilemma. The Kings might have to waive DeMar DeRozan just to get under the first apron and have access to their full MLE. Unless Achiuwa’s market ends up far south of this BORD$ estimate, that could open the door for other bidders.
7. Dean Wade, Cleveland: $12,835,954
Cleveland’s financial position is going to make it very challenging to keep Wade, unless the Cavs just say damn the torpedoes and blow past all the aprons.
Entering the offseason, the Cavs are over the projected second apron before they pay Wade a dollar. While adjusting James Harden’s salary downward and trading or stretching Dennis Schröder could relieve some of that pressure, it is still hard to do the math on an eight-figure deal for Wade. That could leave the 3-and-D forward vulnerable to poaching from a rival with a strong offer.
One note here: Wade’s frequent injuries could put a lid on his market at a bit lower than BORD$ suggests. He hasn’t played 60 games in any of the past five seasons.
Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum
8. Harrison Barnes, San Antonio: $10,978,562
Barnes seems destined to be squeezed out in San Antonio by the continued development of Julian Champagnie and Carter Bryant, seeing his role wither to nothing in the NBA Finals.
However, there may be a way to keep the 34-year-old around for the short term, give him a bag and take advantage of the Spurs’ Bird rights on him. San Antonio has a mountain of dollars available below the projected tax line, but that picture changes dramatically when Victor Wembanyama’s likely supermax kicks in for 2027-28. To take advantage of that, the Spurs could sign Barnes to a one-year balloon deal that operates as a trade exception at the deadline, or even use him in a sign-and-trade this summer with only the first year guaranteed (sign-and-trade contracts must be for at least three seasons) to bring him back a win-now guy.
9. DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento (PG): $10,371,138
As I noted in my recent piece on player and team options, the Kings have a puzzling decision because DeRozan’s $25.7 million deal for 2026-27 has a $10 million guarantee, and the Kings’ best realistic pathway to skirting the tax aprons in a rebuilding year is to either trade him or waive-and-stretch the contract.
One nerdy note: If DeRozan is waived and signs elsewhere, the size of his next deal matters because the Kings would receive a set-off from their tax calculation for 50 percent of any amount above the one-year veteran minimum (an estimated $2.2 million).
Sacramento has an interesting call to make on veteran DeMar DeRozan. (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)
10. Dom Barlow, Philadelphia (TO): $9,557,414
Barlow broke out to earn a rotation spot off a two-way deal last year and is still only 23 years old. If the Sixers can’t land an upgrade in the free-agent market, he might be the starter next year.
He also has a team option for just $3.4 million, something that might be a classic “decline and re-sign” situation, but for two factors. First, the Sixers can only sign him for $4.1 million without going into exception money, so Barlow might feel better just riding out the contract and hitting free agency next year. Second, the Sixers’ own tap dance vis-à-vis the tax line could be complicated enough that even a $700,000 difference on Barlow might really matter.
11. Jonathan Kuminga, Atlanta, (TO): $9,409,216
The Hawks have a team option for $24.3 million on Kuminga. Obviously, it makes no sense to pick it up from a pure value perspective, but there are a lot of moving parts here.
First, Atlanta has enough room below the tax line that the Hawks might consider picking up the option to use as a giant trade exception that can be utilized in-season, or even to have Kuminga append a value extension to that number for future seasons. The Hawks could also decline the option and sign Kuminga to a more straightforward deal, but his skill overlap with Jalen Johnson makes him a clunky fit unless he’s limited to a 15-minute bench role. Finally, the Hawks have cap-room scenarios that could incentivize them to just decline the option and move on.
12. Rui Hachimura, L.A. Lakers: $9,398,473
Hachimura has become a lights-out shooter, making 44.3 percent and 41.3 percent of his 3s the past two seasons, but he doesn’t let it fly with enough volume to make him a truly terrifying spacing threat.
His game is otherwise solid but forgettable, leaving him stretched as a starter and more suited to a bench role toggling between the two forward spots. This BORD$ valuation for Hachimura is interesting because it would slide perfectly into the Lakers’ $9.4 million room exception if L.A. renounces his rights to maximize its cap room, which seems likely. The maximal room exception offer is a three-year, $29 million deal, which seems fair.
13. Kelly Oubre, Philadelphia: $8,856,031
One wonders if there are scenarios in which Oubre could re-sign in Philly, and the Sixers could still use their non-taxpayer midlevel exception to add talent while also avoiding the tax.
Alas, it’s a tough needle to thread, and Oubre may find a better fit in a place where he can play more minutes at his natural small forward spot rather than as an undersized power forward. The 30-year-old is a plus defender and shot 36 percent from 3 last season. Starting him is probably a stretch at this point, but surely he will have a market as a third forward.
14. Mo Gueye, Atlanta, (TONG): $8,336,432
Gueye has a non-guaranteed team option for $2.4 million for this season, which could create “decline and re-sign” scenarios for the Hawks. The Hawks have enough room below the tax line that they could decline the option and re-sign him to a new deal right now with front-loaded money; even if they try to be a cap-room team, they could do something similar because of his minimum cap hold. If so, BORD$ would suggest a fair way to replace that bargain 2026-27 number would be a three-year deal in the $20 million range for the still-developing defensive ace.
15. GG Jackson, Memphis (TO): $7,167,651
Jackson has a team option for $2.4 million, and the Grizzlies, like the Hawks above, have oodles of room below the tax line (not to mention some cap-space scenarios involving his minimum cap hold). However, Jackson has been so erratic for Memphis that the Grizzlies may think twice about going long with him just yet. The other reason to hold off is that, in 2027, the Grizzlies will have a greater-than-max hoard of cap room and a minimum cap hold on Jackson, although he would be an unrestricted free agent at that point.
16. Kenrich Williams, Oklahoma City (TO): $6,326,713
Kenny Hustle feels like a Thunder Lifer, and he showed in the payoffs that he can still deliver some solid minutes. Alas, Oklahoma City is about to get hammered by the tax aprons and can no longer afford to have a Vibes Guy making $7.1 million, the value of his team option. Look for the Thunder to decline the option and try to ink Williams to a longer deal for lower money, perhaps something in the range of three years and $15 million.
17. Jonathan Isaac, Orlando (PG): $6,205,187
Isaac has an $8 million guarantee on his $14.5 million deal for 2026-27. The oft-injured big man is still a dynamic force on defense when healthy, but his limited offensive game dampens his value.
On a team that can afford to have him miss games, he’s a tremendous frontcourt luxury, but that team might not be the Magic. One of the most cap-handcuffed teams in the league, Orlando can ease its tax-apron constraints by stretching Isaac’s guarantee over seven seasons, something possible because he has two non-guaranteed years left on his contract after the current one. Orlando would have to make a decision by June 28, when the contract becomes fully guaranteed.
18. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Memphis (TO): $5,477,704
“O-minimum” has a team option for $2.5 million after showing well on a two-way deal for the Grizzlies last season. A lot of those minutes came as a pint-sized center in throw-spaghetti-at-the-wall lineups that Memphis had to trot out due to all its injuries, but Prosper’s true selling point is as an energy wing who defends, runs the floor and hits open shots. Prosper made 40.5 percent from 3 last season, and if his true ability level is at all close to that, he’s at worst a back-end rotation player.
As a non-Bird free agent, Memphis can only pay Prosper with a modest raise on his minimum unless the Grizzlies go into exception money, so a “decline and re-sign” pact might not be in the cards, but one could see how a three-year, $13 million deal using a piece of Memphis’ non-taxpayer or room exception might be beneficial for both sides … even if “O-room exception” doesn’t flow off the tongue as easily.
19. Guerschon Yabusele, Chicago: $5,336,603
Yabusele flamed out with the Knicks, but his performance in 26 games with the Bulls was much more consistent with what he’d done in Philly in 2024-25. Much of his failure in New York was the result of an outlier bad stretch from the 3-point line (28.6 percent as a Knick), and this BORD$ value almost matches the $5.75 million player option he waived to complete the trade to the Bulls. His market may hew closer to the minimum than the taxpayer midlevel exception he got a year ago, but statistically, he looks like basically the same player.
Guerschon Yabusele struggled with the Knicks but bounced back in Chicago. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
20. Jeremy Sochan, New York: $5,199,830
Sochan still can’t shoot and probably never will, and playing him at point guard was a low point in the Spurs’ rebuild. However, there’s an energy defender and rim crasher in here, especially if paired with a floor-spacing center. Still just 22, Sochan needs to land on a rebuilding team on an inexpensive deal and get some developmental minutes. That won’t be New York, obviously, but he still could provide rotational value in the right setting.
21. Josh Minott, Brooklyn (TONG): $5,157,623
As the last person on Minott Island, I’m expecting Brooklyn to pick up his $2.6 million option and roster him this season, where the 23-year-old can hopefully get the minutes and reps that weren’t available in Minnesota and Boston. A non-shooter when he entered the league, Minott made 41.6 percent of his 3s last season. It’s a small sample, but if he shoots anywhere close to that over a full season, he’s a player.
22. Jabari Walker, Philadelphia (PG): $4,825,451
The Sixers, somewhat oddly, signed Walker to a deal last year with a $250,000 guarantee rather than a declinable team option, basically locking Philly into riding out one more year with him at $2.58 million. BORD$ suggests that is a far more palatable option than cutting him, especially for a team that would be filling his spot with a minimum guy anyway.
Tier 5: Good minimums
23. Kyle Anderson, Minnesota
Slo-Mo’s fit is heavily team dependent, as he works best if the other four guys can all shoot and he can get reps either on the ball or as a short-roller. He’s still a master of the poke-check move and a defensive playmaker, and even without a 3-ball, he had a 57.3 true shooting percentage last season.
24. Trendon Watford, Philadelphia (TO)
A Kyle Anderson play-alike who had the same 57.3 true shooting percentage last season, Watford operates best when he can have the ball in his hands inside the 3-point arc. However, he fell out of favor as last season went on, and the Sixers face an interesting decision on whether to pick up his $2.8 million team option. If Philly wanted him back, declining the option and signing the one-year vet minimum for $2.4 million would offer some savings relative to the tax line.
25. Jae’Sean Tate, Houston
Tate can defend any of the perimeter positions and plays with great energy, but he’s 30.9 percent career 3-point shooter with limited on-ball juice. That made it tough for him to get on the floor on a Houston roster already crowded with similar profiles, but he’d make an impact on a different roster. A playoff-caliber team that needs an extra wing stopper with toughness should target Tate as a minimum guy.
26. Nic Batum, LA Clippers (TO)
Batum’s $6 million team option seems far too rich for where he is at age 37, as he’s become an extreme low-usage player (9.6 percent last season!) who only shoots when left open. But he does make them (40.4 percent from 3) and guards his position.
27. Leonard Miller, Chicago (TONG)
Miller has a $2.4 million team option that becomes half guaranteed if picked up and fully guaranteed on June 30. He’s worth keeping regardless of the mechanism. Miller played fairly well while the Bulls otherwise swooned toward the lottery, so picking it up seems likely. The lefty shot 69.3 percent on 2s between his two stops last season, and if he finishes anywhere near that in a full season, he has value regardless of whether his low line-drive 3s find the net consistently.
Guaranteeing the $2.4 million is the most straightforward means to keep Miller, but Chicago could also decline the option and take advantage of his minimum cap hold before committing to a longer minimum or minimum-ish deal — probably with soft guarantees and a team option year — as a non-Bird free agent.
28. Jonathan Mogbo, Toronto (TO)
Mogbo fell so far out of the mix that he was barely even in the kitchen, playing just 249 minutes in his second season. The Raptors have a $2.3 million team option on him and may go in another direction given the crowd they have at power forward. Mogbo probably needs to start making 3s to have a rotation role, but he is a defensive event creator who can be an offensive connector and would fit on an up-tempo roster with more breathing room at his position.
29. Kevin Love, Utah
Love turns 38 before camp and has settled into the Veteran Swami phase of his career, but he still offers the unusual intersection of 3-point shooting and elite rebounding and slings some of the best outlet passes in the game. He’d likely be a nice fit as a fifth big on a contending team.
Kevin Love could still have some juice as a fifth big on the right team. (Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images)
30. Georges Niang, did not play in 2025-26
Niang missed last season recovering from knee issues, and his contract bounced around the league before he was finally waived by Memphis. At 33, he seems unlikely to regain rotation viability and will have to prove he has enough mobility to defend, but he’s also made 40 percent of his 3s in six of his seven NBA seasons.
31. Kobe Brown, Indiana (R)
One advantage of the Pacers’ lost season is that it gave Brown a bit more of a chance after sitting at the end of the Clippers‘ bench for two-and-a-half years. He didn’t exactly dominate, but he made 43.3 percent from 3 and could have a role if he reduces his turnovers. The Pacers are capped at offering him $4.792 million, the amount of the fourth-year option that the Clippers declined before trading him, but this will not be a bidding war situation.
Tier 6: Fringe guys, two-ways
32. Pete Nance, Milwaukee (NG)
Signed to a roster contract as the Bucks spiraled out of contention last season, Nance was effective enough as a stretch four (42.0 percent from 3) that he might have staying power. His $2.5 million deal for this season is guaranteed on July 4. He is also two-way eligible if waived.
33. Chris Boucher, last with Utah
Boucher only played nine games last season and was waived after being traded to the Jazz, but he had a solid 2024-25 season in Toronto and might still have some value as a fifth big.
34. Anthony Gill, Washington
Gill is an undersized big who is on the roster as much for his leadership off the court as for whatever he can do on it. If he’s back, it’s as the locker room “unc.”
35. Jeff Green, Houston
Green only played 30 games and 175 minutes last season, not including his shocking insertion into Game 3 of the Lakers series, and finished with career lows across the board. He also turns 40 this summer, so the end may be near.
36. Doug McDermott, Sacramento
I’m not really sure how he spent his entire age-34 season at the end of the Kings’ bench, but he’s facing an uphill battle to spend his age-35 season on anyone’s bench.
37. Maxi Kleber, L.A. Lakers
Kelber scored 33 baskets in 43 games and had a single-digit PER for the fourth straight season. At 34, his next stop is likely back in Europe.
38. Mouhamadou Gueye, Chicago (TONG)
Not to be confused with Atlanta’s Mo Gueye, this one signed a roster-filler deal at the end of the season and is still two-way eligible. The Bulls surely will either decline the option now or waive him later, unless his contract needs to be used in a trade. They could still bring him back on a two-way deal.
39. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
His Bucks career has likely come to an end, but I’m guessing he might become a top free-agent target for Miami later this summer.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic