By Jeph Duarte | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-18 11:00:00
2026赛季NBA已正式落下帷幕，纽约尼克斯队加冕2026年NBA总冠军。在第五场比赛结束后，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 表示：“我们统治比赛的阶段是毋庸置疑的。在系列赛的大部分时间里，我们都占据着绝对统治地位。但我们的失误、我们的犯错付出的代价太惨痛了，我们不能再出现这样起伏不定的情况。”
文班的这番言论在社交媒体上引来了一些批评。但从数据统计的角度来看，他是正确的。
根据 ESPN Analytics（ESPN数据分析）的数据，在马刺输掉的4场总决赛中，他们曾拥有……
— 第一场：第三节中段领先13分时，有 91.6% 的胜率
— 第二场：第四节还剩1分钟领先2分时，有 72.8% 的胜率
— 第四场：领先20分时，有 99.6% 的胜率…… pic.twitter.com/WkOw0shz7W— 托默·阿扎利 (Tomer Azarly) (@ TomerAzarly) 2026年6月14日
“根据 ESPN Analytics 的数据，在马刺输掉的4场总决赛中，他们曾拥有：第一场第三节中段领先13分时 91% 的胜率；第二场第四节还剩1分钟领先2分时 72.8% 的胜率；第四场领先20分时 99.6% 的胜率；以及第五场第四节还剩7分54秒领先10分时 95.4% 的胜率。”
显然，如何收割比赛是马刺目前存在的问题，这也将是下个赛季的重点解决方向。但在输掉的四场比赛中，有三场马刺在下半场都拥有超过 90% 的胜率。尼克斯完成了不可能的任务，而马刺则打出了令人匪夷所思的崩盘。
顺便提一句：我订购了塞斯·帕特诺 (Seth Partnow) 写的《中距离理论》(Midrange Theory)。书应该下周到。欢迎想一起阅读和讨论的朋友加入。感谢 Montreal 的建议。我想 zsals 应该也会加入吧？
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Open Thread: Analytics reveal the Spurs had the best odds of winning the NBA Finals
Open Thread: Analytics reveal the Spurs had the best odds of winning the NBA Finals
The 2026 NBA season has officially ended and the New York Knicks were crowned the 2026 NBA Champions. After Game 5, Victor Wembanyama stated, “Our domination stints are absolute. We absolutely dominated for most of the series. But our errors, our mistakes, are punished so hard that we can’t have ups and downs like this.”
Wemby took some flack on social media for the comment. But mathematically speaking, he was correct.
According to ESPN Analytics, in the 4 games the Spurs lost in the NBA Finals, they had a…
— 91.6% chance of winning Game 1 up 13 points midway thru the 3rd
— 72.8% chance of winning Game 2 up 2 points with 1 minute left in the 4th
— 99.6% chance of winning Game 4 up 20 points… pic.twitter.com/WkOw0shz7W— Tomer Azarly (@ TomerAzarly) June 14, 2026
“According to ESPN Analytics, in the 4 games the Spurs lost in the NBA Finals, they had a 91% chance of winning Game 1 up 13 midway through the 3rd, 72,8 chance of winning Game 2 up 2 points with 1 minute left in the 4th, a 99.6% chance of winning Game 4 up 20 points, and a 95.4% chance of winning Game 5 up 10 points with 7:54 left in the 4th.”
Obviously, there were problems closing out games which will be a major focus next season. But in three of the four games, the Spurs had over 90% chance of winning during the second half. The Knicks did the impossible while the Spurs did the unthinkable.
FYI: I ordered Midrange Theory By Seth Partnow. It should come next week. For anyone who wants to read and discuss along. Thanks for the suggestion Montreal. I assume zsals is in?
By Jeph Duarte, via Pounding The Rock