By Pedro Orthez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-03 16:00:00
在这个级别的对决中，一轮篮球系列赛总像是一盘棋局；而曾因在纽约下棋而闻名的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 显然正面临着一轮艰难且极具策略性的系列赛来为这个赛季收官，这并不会让人感到意外。
我认为，分析纽约尼克斯队带来的挑战，并制定出一些富有创意、如棋局般精妙的策略，来帮助我们年轻的马刺队夺得奥布莱恩杯，将会是一件非常有意义的事。
2026年NBA总决赛注定将是一场史诗级的对决
这是两支截然不同的球队，在过去的几年（甚至可以说是过去的几周）里，他们走过了完全不同的发展轨迹。
在棋局中，站在对手的角度去分析并制定策略往往更为重要。尽管马刺队凭借常规赛62胜（尼克斯队为53胜）的战绩夺得了主场优势，但这轮总决赛在战术层面的博弈，将在两队极具设计感的地板上展开。
马刺队在通过乐透抽签进行彻底重建后，以令人惊叹的速度缩短了重返竞争者行列的进程——在选中文班亚马后，他们仅用了不到三年的时间。
另一方面，尼克斯队则围绕杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 耐心地重组了他们的阵容。
这两支球队有一个有趣的共同点：都不太愿意透露各自当家球星的真实身高。维克托真的是7英尺3英寸（约2米21），还是更接近7英尺5英寸（约2米26）？而杰伦呢？真的是6英尺2英寸（约1米88），还是更像6英尺（约1米83）？
另一个共同特征是：阵容深度。在今年的季后赛中，两支球队都非常依赖他们的替补阵容。尼克斯队曾实现过先发五虎得分全部上双，而马刺队则有六名球员得分上双。
尼克斯队的优势
**杰伦·布伦森**是一位球场大师。虽然球权大多集中在他手中，但他的进攻不像卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 那样以自我为中心，他更多的是在梳理进攻而非一味支配。他的脚步在联盟中堪称一绝，这让他总能找到办法在比他高得多的球员（几乎是场上的每个人）头顶或身边完成得分。在防守端，他有着不可思议的制造进攻犯规的能力，并自封为比赛中最好的“篮圈下方守护者”。
尼克斯队第二重要的球员是**OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)**。这位28岁的英国前锋正值职业生涯巅峰。他曾在2019年随猛龙队夺冠，今年季后赛他场均贡献近20分，三分命中率高达48%（主要集中在底角三分），场均出手4.8次，同时他毫无疑问是尼克斯队最好、最稳定的防守者，场均还能贡献7个篮板和2.6次抢断加盖帽（stocks）。
接下来是**卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)**。看起来主教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 已经解锁了一个我们此前从未见过的唐斯，即便是在明尼苏达时期也未曾见过。唐斯在篮板上领跑全队，场均还能送出近6次助攻，同时贡献2.6次抢断加盖帽。而且他并没有丢掉自己的招牌绝活：场均出手3.2次三分，命中率达到令人难以置信的49%，这进一步巩固了他作为联盟中“投篮最好的7英尺大个子”的地位。
这三驾马车在今年季后赛中状态火热：高效、防守稳健且不知疲倦。特别值得一提的是米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)，他在经历艰难开局后，投篮命中率提升到了59%；还有他们的“瑞士军刀”乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart)，他每晚都会在球场上倾其所有。
尼克斯队的替补席虽然不像其他一些打进分区决赛的球队那样深厚，但兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet) 和麦尔斯·麦克布莱德 (Miles McBride) 在任何一个夜晚都能贡献关键得分。乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 则能从替补席上挺身而出，带来活力并填补零星的登场时间。
预计对位
**布伦森 VS 卡斯尔**
纸面上看，这可能是总决赛的关键对决。斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 已经证明，在西部决赛的大部分时间里，他有能力将那位两届MVP得主的得分限制在场均得分以下；但斯蒂芬有时也会陷入挣扎，尤其是在德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 因高位踝关节扭伤缺阵时，他的失误开始增多。
布伦森是全联盟最擅长制造进攻犯规的球员。如果卡斯尔像往常一样频繁且侵略性十足地冲击篮筐，布伦森就会在前面等着他。尽管卡斯尔能够限制布伦森，但反过来也是一样：如果卡斯尔陷入犯规麻烦，对圣安东尼奥来说将是毁灭性的打击。
**哈特 VS 文班亚马**
许多分析师预测，文班亚马将被安排去防守乔什·哈特——尼克斯首发五虎中进攻威胁最小的球员，从而让文班亚马能够进行协防并在防守端大开杀戒。但我认为这种安排弊大于利。以下是我的替代方案：哈特足够聪明，他会拼命冲抢篮板（他是一位水准之上的进攻篮板手），因此他可能会把文班死死拖在篮筐附近。
在对阵俄克拉荷马雷霆（OKC）的比赛中我们已经看到，当文班被派去包夹谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 或扑防到三分线外时，他的篮板数出现了下滑。马刺队需要文班亚马统治禁区，不仅是在进攻端，在防守端同样如此，以避免给对手二次进攻的机会。
另辟蹊径：我更倾向的马刺对位方案
**文班亚马防守阿奴诺比**
除了文班，圣安东尼奥的先发阵容中没有人能在身体对抗上对得上阿奴诺比。如果文班亚马能够与以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 和亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 缠斗，那么他也能限制住阿奴诺比，后者在转换进攻、持球突破和外线投射方面都极具威胁。让文班防守哈特或许能解放他去协防，但如果换成其他任何人防守阿奴诺比，都会被其彻底打爆。如果需要，朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 或凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 可以作为备选方案。
**瓦塞尔防守唐斯**
德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 在整个西部决赛中对切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 的防守堪称惊艳。唐斯和切特一样，大部分时间都待在禁区之外。这两位7英尺高的大个子还有一个相似之处：他们的心态容易受到影响，相比于身体，他们在心理上更容易暴露破绽。瓦塞尔拥有足够的防守纪律性和专注度来利用这一点。
**尚帕尼防守哈特**
朱利安的篮板表现在赛季后半段令人印象深刻，并这一状态延续到了季后赛。让他去对位哈特可以限制哈特的进攻篮板，而这正是哈特最危险且最被低估的贡献之一。
**卡斯尔防守布里奇斯**
米卡尔·布里奇斯目前手感热得发烫。没有人比卡斯尔更适合去限制他。一旦布里奇斯手感冰凉，他就会成为球队的负资产。卡斯尔完全有能力将他锁死。
**福克斯防守布伦森**
这样一来，就由福克斯来防守布伦森。福克斯是圣安东尼奥经验最丰富的首发球员，职业生涯中曾与布伦森交手过17次。
在这17次正面对决中：
**布伦森：**20.1分、2.6个篮板、5.0次助攻、0.9次抢断、0.2次盖帽
**福克斯：**21.1分、3.6个篮板、7.0次助攻、1.4次抢断、0.6次盖帽
布伦森总是很难被彻底防死。我的策略是去掐断尼克斯队其他所有首发球员的联系，让福克斯去单防布伦森。这可是NBA总决赛，福克斯定会迎难而上。他即将成为顶薪合同球员，而众所周知，布伦森当年为了给尼克斯管理层留出建队空间选择降薪。这轮系列赛将是福克斯作为马刺球员的闪光时刻。
预测
**马刺4-3胜出**
维克托·文班亚马将再次在得分、篮板和盖帽上领跑全队，并荣膺总决赛MVP（FMVP）奖杯。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Spurs vs. Knicks is a tough match-up that requires some creativity
Spurs vs. Knicks is a tough match-up that requires some creativity
At this level, a basketball series is always a chess game; and it would surprise no one that Victor Wembanyama who famously played chess in New York, is certainly looking at a tough, strategic series to finish this season.
I thought it would great to review what challenges the New York Knicks present, and come up with some creative, chess-like, strategies to help our young Spurs win the Larry O’Brien trophy.
These 2026 NBA Finals promise to be epic
Two very different teams, on two very different trajectories in the past few years if not the past few weeks.
In a chess game, it is often more important to analyse and design a strategy from your opponent’s perspective. Although the Spurs have home court advantage thanks to their 62 win season, as opposed to 53 for the Knicks, these Finals will be played strategically on these two awesome court designs.
The Spurs, after a hard reset via the lottery, have accelerated their return to contention in remarkable fashion, in less than three years after drafting Wembanyama.
The Knicks, on the other end, have patiently rebuilt their roster around Jalen Brunson.
One amusing thing these two teams share: a reluctance to disclose their respective star player’s real height. Is Victor really 7’3 or closer to 7’5? And Jalen? Genuinely 6’2 or more like 6’?
Another common trait: depth. During this postseason, both teams have leaned heavily on their benches. The Knicks have had their five starters scoring in double figures, the Spurs had six players.
The Knicks’ Strengths
Jalen Brunson is a maestro. The ball stays in his hands a lot, but his offense is less self-centered than Doncic’s, he directs rather than dominates. His footwork is unmatched in the League, allowing him to find ways to score over or around players far taller than him, which is nearly everyone. On the defensive end, he has an uncanny ability to draw charges and calls himself the best “below the rim protector” in the game.
The second most important Knicks is OG Anunoby. The 28-year-old Englishman is peaking. Already a champion with the Raptors in 2019, he is averaging nearly 20 points this postseason while shooting 48% from three (mainly on corner threes) on 4.8 attempts per game, all while being arguably the Knicks’ best and most consistent defender, averaging 7 rebounds and 2.6 stocks.
Then there is Karl-Anthony Towns. It seems like coach Mike Brown has unlocked a version of KAT we had never seen before, even in Minnesota. KAT leads the Knicks in rebounds and dishes out almost 6 assists per game, while also recording 2.6 stocks. And he has not abandoned his signature strength: an almost incomprehensible 49% from three on 3.2 attempts per game, cementing his case as the best-shooting 7-footer in the League.
This trio has been flying this postseason: efficient, defensively sound, and relentless. Special mention to Mikal Bridges, who after a rough start has shot 59% from the floor, and Josh Hart, their Swiss Army knife who leaves everything on the court every night.
The Knicks’s bench is not as deep as some other Conference Finalists, but Landry Shamet and Miles McBride can produce big buckets on any given night. Jordan Clarkson and Mitchell Robinson bring energy and spot minutes off the pine.
Expected Match-Ups
Brunson vs. Castle
On paper, this could be the key match-up of the Finals. Castle has shown he could hold the two-time MVP below his scoring average for most of the WCF but Steph has also struggled at times, particularly with turnovers when Fox was out with a high ankle sprain.
Brunson is the best in the business at drawing charges. If Castle is aggressive driving to the rim as he often does, Brunson will be waiting for him. As much as Castle can slow Brunson down, the reverse is equally true: a foul-trouble crisis for Castle would be devastating for San Antonio.
Hart vs. Wembanyama
Many analysts predict Wembanyama will be assigned to Josh Hart, the least threatening offensive weapon in the Knicks starting five, allowing him to roam and wreak havoc defensively. I see more problems with this approach than benefits. Here is what I would do instead. Hart will be smart enough to apply pressure on the boards, he is an above-average offensive rebounder, and therefore he could keep Vic close to the hoop.
We saw against OKC, how Vic’s rebounds declined as he was assigned to doubling on SGA or running to the 3-point line. The Spurs need Wembanyama to own the paint, not just on offense but on the defensive end too, to avoid second chance points.
A Different Approach: My Preferred Match-Ups for the Spurs
Wembanyama on Anunoby
None of San Antonio’s starters can match OG physically, except Vic. If Wembanyama was able to battle Hartenstein and Caruso, he can contain OG, who is dangerous in transition, off the dribble, and from deep. Putting Vic on Hart might free him up to help, but OG would feast on anyone else guarding him. Julian Champagnie or Keldon Johnson are secondary options if needed.
Vassell on Towns
Devin Vassell’s defense on Chet Holmgren was stellar throughout the Western Conference Finals. KAT, much like Chet, spends a lot of time outside the paint. The two 7-footers share another similarity: they can be gotten into their heads, exposed mentally more than physically. Vassell has the discipline and focus to exploit that.
Champagnie on Hart
Julian’s rebounding has been impressive in the second half of the season and has carried into the postseason. Matching him with Hart could neutralize Hart’s offensive rebounding, which is one of his most dangerous and underrated contributions.
Castle on Bridges
Mikal Bridges is currently scorching. No one is better equipped than Castle to slow him down. And when Bridges’s shots aren’t falling, he can become a net negative for his team. Castle can put him in that box.
Fox on Brunson
That leaves DeAaron Fox on Brunson. Fox is San Antonio’s most experienced starter and has faced Brunson 17 times in his career.
In those 17 head-to-heads:
**Brunson:**20.1 pts, 2.6 reb, 5.0 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.2 blk
**Fox:**21.1 pts, 3.6 reb, 7.0 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.6 blk
Brunson will always be hard to stop. My strategy is to disrupt all the other Knicks starters and let Fox handle Brunson. These are the NBA Finals. Fox will rise to the occasion. He is about to become a max-contract player, while Brunson famously took a pay cut to give the Knicks front office room to build around him. This series is Fox’s moment as a Spurs.
Prediction
Spurs in 7
Victor Wembanyama will once again lead his team in points, rebounds, and blocks and will win the Finals MVP Trophy.
By Pedro Orthez, via Pounding The Rock