[The Athletic] 谁将夺得2026年NBA总冠军：雷霆、马刺还是凯尔特人？匿名球员投票结果揭晓

TheAthletic · 2026 年4 月 13 日 09:10

By Josh Robbins, Sam Amick and Joe Vardon | The Athletic, 2026-04-13 09:00:24

常规赛已经尘埃落定，几天后季后赛大幕拉开时，NBA球员们将拥有全世界最强大的动力。

请允许我们为这份激励清单再增添一些“更衣室激励素材”。

在《The Athletic》2026年度NBA球员匿名投票中，我们向161名球员提出了一个问题：除了你效力的球队外，哪支球队将在6月夺冠？我们对球员采取匿名制，是为了让他们能够自由、诚实地回答，而无需担心遭到对手、队友或球迷的报复。从2月下旬到本月初，共有146名球员（占联盟很大一部分比例）给出了他们的冠军预测。

每一支季后赛球队——包括卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder)、冉冉升起的圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs)、波士顿凯尔特人队 (Boston Celtics) 和丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets) 等老牌劲旅，以及东部常规赛战绩最佳的底特律活塞队 (Detroit Pistons)——都能从这次投票结果中获得额外的动力。

雷霆被认为是那支最难被击败的球队，这不无道理。他们拥有全联盟最佳的常规赛战绩（64胜18负），且经过了季后赛的洗礼。正如我们球员投票系列的第一部分所指出的，他们的阵容中还拥有球员心目中的最有价值球员人选：谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)。

“他们是统治力最强的球队，”一位投票给雷霆的球员告诉我们。

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像镶嵌宝石的冠军戒指和更丰厚的季后赛奖金分成等物质奖励固然是巨大的诱惑，但即便这些激励与夺冠所代表的意义相比也显得微不足道。举起拉里·奥布莱恩杯标志着集体追求的圆满。意识到自己是比个体更伟大的事业的一部分——为世界上水平最高的篮球联盟中的最强球队贡献力量——这种感觉确实是无可替代的。

我们绝不会说一份投票结果的重量会超过那些有形和无形的考量。

但证明质疑者是错误的这种渴望，是人类非常真实的情感。也许，仅仅是也许，当季后赛参与者在艰难比赛的第四节感到精疲力竭，或是在季后赛深入数周后感到心力交瘁时，他们会想起这些结果，从而获得一点额外的动力。

又或许，这些结果会促使球迷在关键的系列赛天王山之战（双方战成2-2平）中，欢呼声再响亮那么一点点。

这些结果对不同的球队和球迷群体意味着不同的东西。

以下是这些结果对我们的意义。

雷霆并非被视为不可战胜

在预测最终冠军的球员中，恰好有一半选择了雷霆。

“他们去年赢了，”一位投票者说，“显然，卫冕非常困难，但他们保留了大部分核心阵容，并增加了一些不错的拼图。”

所以，获得50.0%的球员选票应该意味着什么，对吧？

是的，确实如此。这意义重大。

但俄克拉荷马城“仅”获得了半数选票。这是《The Athletic》第五年进行NBA球员匿名投票，而在之前的每一次调查中，预测冠军所获得的选票份额都比今年的雷霆要高。

2018-19赛季的金州勇士队获得了高达79.5%的选票。2022-23赛季的密尔沃基雄鹿队被62.2%的受访者选中。2023-24赛季的掘金队获得了55.9%的选票。而去年，凯尔特人被57.7%的球员视为夺冠热门。

作为卫冕冠军，雷霆只能争取到50%的选票？即便吉尔杰斯-亚历山大极有可能连续第二年获得常规赛MVP？雷霆拥有全联盟遥遥领先的最佳防守——每100回合仅失106.6分——人们本以为这会激发更多人对他们卫冕前景的信心。

来自联盟最小的市场之一，总是让雷霆及其充满激情的球迷拥有一种“举世皆敌”的心态。也许这份投票数据会在雷霆的决策者、球员和球迷眼中印证这一认知。

Victor Wembanyama celebrates after a good play.
维克托·文班亚马和马刺能在季后赛制造声浪吗？球员们认为可以。 Scott Wachter / Imagn Images

球员们相信文班和他的马刺

在NBA，一支没有经过季后赛洗礼、甚至没有季后赛经验的球队夺冠是极其罕见的。即使是拉里·伯德 (Larry Bird) 的凯尔特人、朱利叶斯·欧文 (Julius Erving) 的费城76人、伊赛亚·托马斯 (Isiah Thomas) 的活塞、迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 的芝加哥公牛和哈基姆·奥拉朱旺 (Hakeem Olajuwon) 的休斯顿火箭，在最终夺冠前都必须忍受季后赛的失望——通常是超过一次痛苦的季后赛出局。

但25.3%的投票球员认为，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 领衔的马刺将打破这一延续多年的趋势。

请记住，本届季后赛将是马刺自2018-19赛季以来的首次季后赛亮相。文班亚马从未打过NBA季后赛，尽管他的一些资深队友——哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)、达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 和比斯马克·比永博 (Bismack Biyombo)——有过相关经验。

“他们很有机会，”一位投票给马刺的球员说，“我认为他们会遇到的最大问题是那个阶段缺乏经验。但凭借他们的体型、臂展、运动能力和投射，我认为他们是一支高水平球队。”

马刺在常规赛对阵雷霆的五场比赛中赢了四场，这无疑增加了人们对他们机会的看好。其中一场圣安东尼奥的胜利是12月13日在拉斯维加斯举行的NBA杯半决赛中，以111-109惊险取胜。那天晚上，全联盟的目光都集中在两支球队身上，文班亚马在因伤缺阵一个月后的回归更是增添了看点。

西部依然最强

在过去的25个NBA总冠军中，西部联盟球队赢得了16个，而联盟球员似乎仍然认为西部的顶尖水平远高于东部。

在雷霆和马刺分列球员投票的前两位之后，尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 领衔的掘金队以7.5%的选票排名第四。

“我的答案每周都在变，”一位球员回答道，“我认为如果丹佛保持健康，他们有很大机会。”

另一位球员说：“我信任尼古拉。”

底特律被轻视了？

好吧，“轻视”这个词可能有点重了。但也只是重了一点点。

活塞在赛季的大部分时间里都是东部战绩最好的球队，他们以60胜22负的战绩结束常规赛，并锁定了整个东部季后赛的主场优势。

活塞有很多令人喜爱的地方，包括球星凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 以及活塞整体展现出的那种强硬、全力以赴的特质。

“东部的一支硬骨头球队，”一位投票给活塞的球员说，“不是一支容易被击败的球队。他们打得极其强硬。他们主导了比赛的身体对抗，如果你不去和他们硬碰硬，他们会击败你。他们会把你们彻底打爆。”

尽管活塞赢得了尊重，但凯尔特人在所有东部球队中得票领先，以8.2%的得票率排名第三。杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 是当之无愧的MVP候选人，正如我们的投票所显示的，而杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 最近从跟腱断裂中回归，在球员眼中增加了凯尔特人的胜算。

底特律在我们的投票中排名第五，获得了4.1%的选票。

坎宁安的健康状况无疑起到了核心作用。他在3月17日遭遇肺塌陷，正值我们投票的高峰期，直到4月8日才回归，也就是我们投票结束一周后。

“活塞真的非常、非常出色，”一位投票者说，“但很难不再次选择雷霆。”

《The Athletic》魔咒？

不久前，当《体育画报》(Sports Illustrated) 还是周刊时，曾有过所谓的“《体育画报》魔咒”。似乎总是这样，出现在封面上的个人或球队很快就会遭遇某种不幸：一场失败，或者更糟糕的是，一次受伤。

好吧，魔咒并不存在。或者至少，我们认为它们不存在。

但在《The Athletic》前四届NBA球员匿名投票中，没有一支被选为最终冠军的球队最终赢得了总冠军。

不是2018-19赛季的勇士。不是2022-23赛季的雄鹿。不是2023-24赛季的掘金。也不是去年的凯尔特人。

所以雷霆队，小心了。

《The Athletic》NBA球员匿名投票历届冠军预测结果

注：《The Athletic》在2020年、2021年或2022年未进行投票。

2025年 — 球员选择：波士顿凯尔特人 | 最终冠军：俄克拉荷马城雷霆

2024年 — 球员选择：丹佛掘金 | 最终冠军：波士顿凯尔特人

2023年 — 球员选择：密尔沃基雄鹿 | 最终冠军：丹佛掘金

2019年 — 球员选择：金州勇士 | 最终冠军：多伦多猛龙

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

点击查看原文：Who'll win 2026 NBA Finals: Thunder, Spurs or Celtics? Anonymous player poll results

Who’ll win 2026 NBA Finals: Thunder, Spurs or Celtics? Anonymous player poll results

The regular season is over, and NBA players will have all the motivation in the world when the playoffs begin a few days from now.

Allow us to add bulletin-board material to the list of incentives.

In one of its questions, The Athletic’s 2026 Anonymous NBA Player Poll asked 161 players to name the team, other than their own franchise, that will win the title in June. We granted the players anonymity to give them the freedom to answer honestly, without fearing reprisals from opponents, teammates or fans. From late February to early this month, 146 players, a large segment of the league, offered their championship predictions.

Every postseason club — including the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, the up-and-coming San Antonio Spurs, old standbys such as the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets, and the East’s best regular-season team, the Detroit Pistons — can conjure additional fuel from the poll’s results.

The Thunder are considered the team to beat, and for good reason. They own the league’s best regular-season record, going 64-18, they’re postseason-proven, and as the first installment in our player poll series indicated, they boast the person who would be the players’ choice for Most Valuable Player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, on their roster.

“They’re the most dominant team,” a player who voted for the Thunder told us.

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Material offerings such as a gemstone-encrusted championship ring and a larger share of the postseason bonus pool are sizable considerations, but even those incentives pale in comparison to what winning a title represents. Hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy fulfills a collective quest. To know you are part of something larger than yourself — to contribute to the best team in the world’s best basketball league — is truly irreplaceable.

We would never say the results of a poll will outweigh all those tangible and intangible considerations.

But the desire to prove doubters wrong is a very human emotion. And perhaps, just perhaps, postseason participants will remember these results when, feeling exhausted in the fourth quarter of a difficult playoff game or drained weeks into the playoffs, they need a little extra jolt of emotion.

Or maybe these results will prompt fans to cheer just a bit louder during a crucial Game 5, with a playoff series tied at two games apiece.

The results will mean different things to different teams and fan bases.

This is what the results mean to us.

The Thunder aren’t considered invincible

Exactly half of the players who predicted the eventual champion chose the Thunder.

“They won it last year,” one voter said. “Obviously, it’s really hard to repeat, but they brought back a lot of the same dudes and added some good pieces.”

So, winning 50.0 percent of the players’ vote should mean something, right?

Yes, it should. That does mean a lot.

But Oklahoma City received “only” half of the vote. This is the fifth year The Athletic has conducted its Anonymous NBA Player Poll, and in each prior instance, the predicted champion earned a larger share of the vote than the Thunder did this year.

The 2018-19 Golden State Warriors received a whopping 79.5 percent of that season’s vote. The 2022-23 Milwaukee Bucks were named by 62.2 percent of respondents. The 2023-24 Nuggets garnered 55.9 percent. And last year, the Celtics were considered the championship favorites by 57.7 percent of the players.

Fifty percent is all the defending-champion Thunder could muster? Even with Gilgeous-Alexander likely headed to his second consecutive regular-season MVP award? The Thunder had the league’s best defense by a wide margin — allowing only 106.6 points per 100 possessions — and one would think that would have inspired more confidence in their chances to repeat.

Being from one of the league’s smallest markets has always given the Thunder, and their passionate fans, an “us against them” mentality. Perhaps this poll’s data will confirm that perception in the eyes of the Thunder’s decision-makers, players and fans.

Victor Wembanyama celebrates after a good play.
Can Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs make noise in the playoffs? The players think so. Scott Wachter / Imagn Images

Players believe in Wemby, and his Spurs

In the NBA, it’s rare for a team that is not playoff-tested, or even playoff-proven, to win a title. Even Larry Bird’s Celtics, Julius Erving’s Philadelphia 76ers, Isiah Thomas’ Pistons, Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls and Hakeem Olajuwon’s Houston Rockets had to endure playoff disappointment — usually, more than one painful playoff exit — before they finally won titles.

But 25.3 percent of the players who cast votes for the title winner think Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs will overcome that years-long trend.

Keep in mind that this postseason will be the Spurs’ first playoff appearance since the 2018-19 postseason. Wembanyama has never played in the NBA playoffs, although some of his veteran teammates (Harrison Barnes, De’Aaron Fox, Kelly Olynyk and Bismack Biyombo) have.

“They have a really good shot,” a player who voted for the Spurs said. “I think the biggest problem they’ll run into is their lack of experience at that point of the year. But (with) just their size, length, athleticism and shooting, I think they’re a high-level team.”

It certainly adds to the Spurs’ perceived chances that they won four of five games against the Thunder during the regular season. One of those San Antonio victories was a thrilling 111-109 victory on Dec. 13 in the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas. The eyes of the entire league were on both teams that night, with added intrigue stemming from Wembanyama making his return from a month away with an injury.

The West is still best

A Western Conference team has won 16 of the last 25 NBA championships, and it appears the league’s players still think the top of the West is far better than the top of the East.

As the Thunder and Spurs went first and second in the players’ voting, Nikola Jokić’s Nuggets finished fourth, with 7.5 percent of the vote.

“My answer switches every week,” one player answered. “I think if Denver gets healthy, they got a good chance.”

Another player said: “I trust Nikola.”

Detroit got dissed?

OK, “dissed” is a bit too strong a word. Only by a bit, though.

The Pistons have been the Eastern Conference’s best team by record for the majority of the season, and they finished the regular season 60-22 and secured home-court advantage throughout the East playoffs.

There’s a lot to like about the Pistons, including star Cade Cunningham and the tough, maximum-effort persona of the Pistons as a whole.

“Tough team out the East,” one player who voted for the Pistons said. “Not an easy team to beat. They play physical as hell. They dictate the physicality of the game, and if you don’t go in there and play physical with them, they will beat you. They’ll beat the s— out of you.”

Still, despite the respect the Pistons earned, the Celtics led all East teams in the vote, finishing third with 8.2 percent. Jaylen Brown is a deserving MVP candidate, as our balloting revealed, and the relatively recent return of Jayson Tatum from an Achilles tendon tear adds to the Celtics’ chances in the players’ eyes.

Detroit finished fifth in our poll, receiving 4.1 percent of the vote.

Cunningham’s health no doubt played a central role. He suffered a collapsed lung March 17, at the height of our balloting, and didn’t return until April 8, one week after our balloting ended.

“The Pistons are really, really good,” one voter said. “But it’s hard not to pick the Thunder again.”

The Athletic jinx?

Not so long ago, when Sports Illustrated was a weekly magazine, there was such a thing as the Sports Illustrated jinx. Invariably, it seemed, the person or team that appeared on the cover soon suffered some kind of unfortunate circumstance: a defeat or, heaven forbid, an injury.

All right, jinxes don’t exist. Or, at least, we think they don’t exist.

But in the four previous editions of The Athletic’s Anonymous NBA Player Poll, none of the teams that were chosen as the eventual title winner wound up winning the championship.

Not the 2018-19 Warriors. Not the 2022-23 Bucks. Not the 2023-24 Nuggets. And not last year’s Celtics.

So Thunder, beware.

The Athletic Anonymous NBA Player Poll previous title results

Note: The Athletic did not conduct polls in 2020, 2021 or 2022.

By Josh Robbins, Sam Amick and Joe Vardon, via The Athletic