By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2026-04-06 19:00:00
2025-26赛季NBA常规赛正式进入尾声，但无需担心，季后赛的战火即将点燃。东西部的排位赛竞争正趋于白热化，附加赛和季后赛首轮的对阵形势也日益明朗。
西部已有五支球队锁定了季后赛席位，其中俄克拉荷马城雷霆队连续第三个赛季获得分区冠军，并力争成为自2018年以来首支实现卫冕的球队。东部则有四支球队拿到了季后赛门票，而附加赛的格局仍将在赛季最后的日子里见分晓。
我们的NBA内幕专家将为您解析常规赛最后几天的重要看点，包括哪些季后赛排位战将悬念留到最后一刻，哪些奖项的最后冲刺值得关注，甚至包括那些乐透区球队在最后一周的表现。
东部季后赛席位争夺战中，还有哪些悬念最关键？
在东部季后赛版图的顶端，唯一确定的是底特律活塞队。尽管凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 因肺萎陷缺席了常规赛最后几周，但活塞仍将以东部第一的身份收官。至于之后的排名？那就不好说了。波士顿凯尔特人队很有可能锁定第二名，不过他们仍需努力才能正式确立优势。纽约尼克斯队和克利夫兰骑士队很可能在赛季最后几天才能分出谁是第三、谁是第四，而目前暂居第五的亚特兰大老鹰队将在这场博弈中扮演关键角色。
亚特兰大将在周一主场迎战纽约，随后在周三和周五与克利夫兰进行主客场连打。这些比赛的结果将在很大程度上决定哪支球队会在季后赛首轮面对老鹰。与此同时，费城76人队和多伦多猛龙队在还剩四场比赛的情况下，并列东部第六（最后一个直接晋级席位）——多伦多此前在主场输给萨克拉门托国王队的比赛，可能会在下周末被证明代价惨重。 – Tim Bontemps
对于目前的东部附加赛球队来说，最大的疑问是什么？
是否有一支潜在的附加赛球队能在季后赛制造声浪？如果夏洛特黄蜂队最终进入附加赛，他们将是其中最危险的球队。在经历了16胜28负的开局后，黄蜂自1月以来一路飙升，先后击败了雷霆、圣安东尼奥马刺和波士顿。拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 和布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller) 保持着健康且动力十足。康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 表现得无所畏惧，是年度最佳新秀的热门人选。
还记得2月9日黄蜂与活塞的那场冲突吗？黄蜂肯定还记得。如果坎宁安（肺萎陷）不能恢复到最佳状态，黄蜂可能会成为首轮的挑战者。如果黄蜂面对凯尔特人，主教练查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee) 作为前波士顿助教，对绿衫军非常熟悉。考虑到黄蜂的进攻极具爆发力和随机性，以及他们自1月以来积累的自信，尽管缺乏季后赛经验，他们仍可能是一个难缠的对手。 – Ohm Youngmisuk
西部榜首之争中，最重要的悬念是什么？
马刺队能否赶超雷霆队夺得头号种子？在还剩四场比赛的情况下，俄克拉荷马城的领先优势扩大到了三场，但圣安东尼奥拥有常规赛交手战绩的平分优势（tiebreaker），且雷霆接下来的三场比赛都是客场。马刺自2月初以来打出了27胜3负的惊人战绩，但卫冕冠军雷霆让追赶变得极其困难。自卫冕（且很可能连任）MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 因腹部拉伤缺阵较长时间回归后，雷霆取得了17胜1负的战绩。
丹佛掘金队目前与洛杉矶湖人队并列西部第三，他们对雷霆或马刺谁能登顶拥有重要的话语权。在周六的加时赛惊险击败马刺后，丹佛剩下的赛程包括周五主场对阵雷霆，以及周日在圣安东尼奥进行的赛季收官战。 – Tim MacMahon
对于排名3到6位的球队来说，最大的疑问是什么？
随着卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)（左侧腹股沟拉伤）无限期缺阵，以及奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)（斜肌受伤）常规赛报销，洛杉矶湖人队能否确保首轮的主场优势？即便他们能在季后赛首轮第一场回归，他们能否重新找回赛季后半段的状态和体能？此外，休斯顿火箭队（第5）和明尼苏达森林狼队（第6）的排名，是否会取决于4月10日他们在休斯顿的直接对话？ – Dave McMenamin
西部附加赛的情况如何？
斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 的突然复出是否会改变局势？这不会动摇排名。金州勇士队似乎锁定了第10位，菲尼克斯太阳队稳居第7。与此同时，波特兰开拓者队和洛杉矶快船队正在争夺第8名，他们将在周五晚上正面交锋。
但库里在缺阵两个月后的复出，让这支处于附加赛底部的勇士队变得更加可怕。如果他在最后一周能表现得接近巅峰状态——且克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 持续保持健康和高效——勇士将有真正的机会成为历史上第二支闯入季后赛的第10号种子。如果库里因膝伤受限或被迫离队，勇士将面临快速且无声的谢幕。 – Anthony Slater
哪位缺阵的球星最需要在季后赛开始前回归？
坎宁安在3月17日仅打了5分钟就提前离场，此后因肺萎陷一直缺阵。如果活塞想要完成自2008年以来的首次季后赛深度之旅，他们显然需要他。
然而，一个积极的迹象是，活塞在坎宁安缺阵期间并未掉队，在此期间取得了8胜2负的战绩，净效率值高达+11.9。两场失利均是在加时赛中。如果角色球员能继续保持这样的水准，再加上健康的坎宁安回归，底特律将处于极佳的状态。 – Zach Kram
乐透区球队的球迷这周应该关注什么？
预计那些需要输球的球队会输掉很多比赛。进入本周，华盛顿、布鲁克林和印第安纳在倒数三名和最高状元签概率上拉开了一点差距，但仍有悬念，且还有几场涉及乐透顺位的直接对话。
印第安纳步行者队和布鲁克林篮网队将在周四对决——这场比赛总得有人赢。除此之外，国王和犹他爵士，达拉斯独行侠、亚特兰大（拥有新奥尔良鹈鹕的选秀权）和孟菲斯灰熊这三支球队，以及芝加哥公牛和密尔沃基雄鹿这对组合，在战绩榜上依然咬得很紧。考虑到这届选秀顶端的才华质量，每一个乐透顺位的组合对这些球队都至关重要。 – Jeremy Woo
还有奖项悬念吗？如果有，谁能在最后一周完成逆袭？
这可能违背常规思维，但我认为大局已定。今年确实是MVP和年度最佳新秀竞争比往年更激烈的一年。然而，Tim Bontemps 的民调显示，投票者普遍倾向于谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和康·克努佩尔。（年度最佳新秀的竞争在周末确实增加了一些戏剧性，库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 在两场历史级的表现中合砍96分。）即使马刺超越雷霆升至第一，邦坦普斯的可靠预测显示，差距过大，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 很难超越 SGA。
目前没有其他现实的MVP竞争者。但文班亚马只要打满64场比赛（加上NBA杯的奖励场次），就可能全票当选最佳防守球员。年度最佳教练的投票可能会比较分散，但 J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff) 和乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 这两位最强候选人的履历已经定型。杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 在坎宁安倒下后的出色表现，让他处于争夺进步最快球员奖的有利位置。凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 刚刚完成了替补出场得分破千的壮举，很可能已经锁定了最佳第六人奖项。 – Brian Windhorst
65场比赛规则在最后一周将如何发挥作用？
仍有几位前奖项得主，包括尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)（62场）、科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)（61场）、埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)（62场）和帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)（62场），尚未达到获得季后赛荣誉评选资格所需的最低65场门槛。他们每人还剩四场比赛。
东契奇将因腹股沟拉伤导致常规赛报销而差一场达标，但他可以申请特例。东契奇在12月曾因女儿出生缺席了两场比赛。
马刺球星文班亚马是今年最佳防守球员、最佳阵容的热门人选，并处于MVP的讨论中。他去年没有资格，但将在周一主场对阵费城的比赛中达到标准。
德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 首次入选全明星，也是最佳阵容的候选人，但他在最后一周不能缺席任何一场比赛才能获得评选资格。
不在名单上的一个名字是安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)。他在2024-25赛季入选了最佳阵容第二阵，但尽管本赛季得分排名第三，他仍将无法达到65场比赛的规定。 – Bobby Marks
已具备资格的知名球员： 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、杰伦·约翰逊、杰伦·布朗、詹姆斯·哈登、多诺万·米切尔、贾马尔·穆雷、凯文·杜兰特、阿门·汤普森、克里斯·邓恩、巴姆·阿德巴约、瑞安·罗林斯、鲁迪·戈贝尔、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯、杰伦·布伦森、切特·霍姆格伦、卡森·华莱士、泰瑞斯·马克西、德阿隆·福克斯、布兰登·英格拉姆和斯科蒂·巴恩斯。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA regular season: Biggest questions, what to watch in final week
NBA regular season: Biggest questions, what to watch in final week
The 2025-26 NBA regular season is officially coming to a close, but no need to worry, playoff basketball is just around the corner. The seeding races in both the East and the West are beginning to heat up, with play-in tournament and first-round matchups becoming clearer every day.
Five teams in the West have guaranteed their spots in the playoffs, with the Oklahoma City Thunder clinching the division for the third season in a row and on a quest to become the first repeat champions since 2018. In the East, four teams have clinched a playoff berth, with the play-in picture still being decided in the last remaining days of the season.
Our NBA insiders break down the biggest things to watch in the last few days of the regular season, including which postseason seeding races will come down to the wire, what last-minute award campaigning we should keep our eyes on and even which lottery-bound teams are doing in their last week of basketball.
What’s the most important thing left to be decided in the East playoff race?
The one thing that’s certain at the top of the East playoff picture is that the Detroit Pistons, despite losing Cade Cunningham for the final few weeks of the regular season with a collapsed lung, will finish with the top seed in the conference. After that? Good luck. The Boston Celtics are likely to wrap up the second spot, though they still have some work to do to officially lock it in. The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers will likely go right down to the season’s final days before deciding who will finish third and fourth, respectively, and the Atlanta Hawks, the likely fifth-place finisher right now, will play a part in that.
Atlanta hosts New York on Monday, and then has a home-and-home with Cleveland on Wednesday and Friday. How those games play out will go a long way toward determining which team will face the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors are tied for the sixth and final spot in the East standings with four games to go – and with Toronto’s home loss to the Sacramento Kings looming large as a game that could prove costly by the end of next week. – Tim Bontemps
What’s the biggest question for the current East play-in teams?
Is there a potential play-in team that can make noise in the postseason? If the Charlotte Hornets end up in the play-in, they would be the most dangerous team that could come out of it. After a 16-28 start, the Hornets have been surging since January and have beaten the likes of the Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Boston. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are healthy and motivated. Kon Knueppel has been fearless and is a Rookie of the Year favorite.
Remember the Feb. 9 fight between the Hornets and Pistons? The Hornets surely still do. If Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung) isn’t back to full strength, the Hornets could be a first-round challenger. And if the Hornets face the Celtics, coach Charles Lee is very familiar with the Celtics as a former Boston assistant. The Hornets could be a tough out despite their lack of playoff experience, given how explosive and random their offense can be and how confident they’ve been since January. – Ohm Youngmisuk
What’s the most important thing left to be decided at the top of the West playoff race?
Can the Spurs catch the Thunder to claim the No. 1 seed? Oklahoma City’s lead is up to three games with four to play, but San Antonio has the season series tiebreaker and OKC’s next three games are on the road. The Spurs are a sizzling 27-3 since the start of February, but the defending champions have made it extremely difficult to make up any more ground. The Thunder are 17-1 since reigning (and likely repeating) MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned from an extended absence due to an abdominal strain.
The Denver Nuggets, tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for the third seed in the West, could have a significant say in whether the Thunder or Spurs land in the top spot. After defeating the Spurs in Saturday’s overtime thriller, Denver’s remaining schedule includes a home game against the Thunder on Friday and a season-ending visit to San Antonio on Sunday. – Tim MacMahon
What is the biggest question for the teams with the 3- to 6-seeds?
With Luka Doncic (left hamstring strain) sidelined indefinitely and Austin Reaves (oblique injury) out for the remainder of the regular season, will L.A. be able to secure home-court advantage in the first round? Even if they are back for Game 1 of the opening round, will they be able to reestablish the rhythm and conditioning they had in the second half of the season? And will the seeding for the No. 5 Houston Rockets and the No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves come down to their game against one another in Houston on April 10? – Dave McMenamin
What about the West play-in?
Does Stephen Curry’s sudden availability alter the picture? It won’t shake up the standings. The Golden State Warriors seem locked into the 10th slot. The Phoenix Suns look settled in the seventh slot. The Portland Trail Blazers and LA Clippers, meanwhile, are battling it out for eighth – and they face each other Friday night.
But Curry’s reappearance after a two-month absence generates a more fearsome version of the Warriors coming out of the bottom of the play-in bracket. If he can look anywhere near himself in the final week – and Kristaps Porzingis continues to be healthy and productive – the Warriors become a real contender to become the second 10th seed ever to muscle into the playoffs. If Curry is limited or forced out of the lineup due to his knee, the Warriors face a quick and quiet exit. – Anthony Slater
Which sidelined star most needs to return before his team starts playing in the postseason?
Cade Cunningham played just five minutes on March 17 before departing early, and he hasn’t played since, due to a collapsed lung. The Pistons clearly need him if they want to make their first deep playoff run since 2008.
However, one positive sign is that the Pistons haven’t missed a step in Cunningham’s absence, going 8-2 with a plus-11.9 net rating in that span. Both losses came in overtime. Detroit would be in great shape if its supporting cast keeps playing that well – with a healthy Cunningham back in the fold. – Zach Kram
What should fans of lottery-bound teams be paying attention to this week?
Expect a lot of losing from the teams that need to lose. Entering the week, Washington, Brooklyn and Indiana created a hair of separation for the bottom three spots and top odds – but there’s still more left to play out and a handful of remaining matchups with lottery implications.
The Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets play on Thursday – a game that someone has to win. Beyond that, the Kings and Utah Jazz, the trio of the Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta (pick via New Orleans Pelicans) and Memphis Grizzlies, and the Chicago Bulls-Milwaukee Bucks pair are still sitting close in the standings. Every lotto combination matters to these teams, considering the quality of talent at the top of this draft class. – Jeremy Woo
Are there any awards still up for grabs, and if so, who can steal them in the final week?
This might go against conventional thinking, but I actually don’t think so. This does promise to be a year where the MVP award and Rookie of the Year will be closer than normal. However, Tim Bontemps’ polling suggests the electorate is widely leaning toward Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kon Knueppel. (The race for top rookie did add some drama over the weekend, when Cooper Flagg scored 96 points across a historic two-game performance.) Even if the Spurs pass the Thunder for the top seed, Bontemps’ reliable projection suggests the margin is too great for Victor Wembanyama to pass SGA.
There are no other realistic MVP winners at this point. But Wembanyama, as long as he reaches 64 games played (plus NBA Cup game bonus), might win Defensive Player of the Year unanimously. Coach of the Year could have a varied vote, but J.B. Bickerstaff and Joe Mazzulla, the two strongest candidates, have their résumés set. Jalen Duren’s tremendous production since Cade Cunningham went down has put him in a strong position for the Most Improved Player award. Keldon Johnson just went over 1,000 points off the bench for the Spurs and likely has the Sixth Man award cornered. – Brian Windhorst
How will the 65-game rule play a role in the last week?
There are still a handful of former award winners, including Nikola Jokic (62 games), Kawhi Leonard (61), Evan Mobley (62) and Pascal Siakam (62), who have yet to reach the minimum 65-game criteria to become eligible for postseason honors. Each has four games remaining.
Doncic will fall one game short due a hamstring strain that ended his regular season, but he can apply for an exception. Doncic missed two games for the birth of his daughter in December.
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama, this year’s favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, All-NBA and in consideration for MVP, was not eligible last season but will reach the criteria Monday at home against Philadelphia.
Deni Avdija was named an All-Star for the first time and is a candidate for All-NBA, but he cannot miss a game in the last week to become eligible.
One name not on the list is Anthony Edwards. He was named to the All-NBA second team in 2024-25 but will not meet the 65-game rule despite being third in scoring this season. – Bobby Marks
Notable players already eligible: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Johnson, Jaylen Brown, James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Kris Dunn, Bam Adebayo, Ryan Rollins, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jalen Brunson, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes.
By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN