By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-01-27 15:05:02
谁要是觉得成年人就不会上演高中水平的闹剧，那他肯定不看NBA。
本赛季，我们已经见证了一位超级巨星（据报道）因嘲笑对手的合同失误而被打了一拳，还有一个水平相当平庸的球员（竟然!!!）要求交易，声称自己陷入了“人质”困境。然而不知怎的，这两件事都算不上最劲爆的，因为一位历史级别的巨星，正因为没有勇气扮演反派角色，而将一场不可避免的分手大戏拖得没完没了。
更滑稽的是，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 的队友利拉德就曾经历过完全相同的闹剧，而那场风波的结局就是他们俩成了队友。你本以为扬尼斯能从中吸取一二，但他反而将利拉德的剧本抄了个一字不差。
随着交易截止日的临近和雄鹿队跌入谷底，现在正是审视他们该如何处理这位似乎心怀不满的超级巨星的最佳时机。
首先，我们需要梳理一下导致目前局面的所有事件。
时间线
关于扬尼斯可能离队的流言蜚语已经持续了远不止6个月，但为了保持头脑清醒，我们还是把焦点放在本赛季。
- 9月29日：在媒体日上，雄鹿队老板韦斯·伊登斯 (Wes Eden) 声称，他在夏天与扬尼斯进行了一次富有成效的会面，会面结束时，这位球星重申了他对球队的忠诚。一小时后，扬尼斯表示他不记得有这么一次会面。等等，什么情况？
- 10月7日：据Shams报道，在“希腊怪物”透露除密尔沃基外，纽约是他唯一愿意效力的球队后，雄鹿队在八月份给了尼克斯一个独家窗口期来讨论关于扬尼斯的潜在交易。
- 10月22日 – 12月1日：密尔沃基以9胜13负开局——扬尼斯在阵时8胜8负，缺阵时1胜5负。
- 12月1日：扬尼斯右小腿拉伤，这与导致他缺席2024年季后赛的是同一伤病。
- 12月3日：就在扬尼斯小腿拉伤几天后，Shams报道称扬尼斯再次与雄鹿队会面讨论他的未来，随后道格·里弗斯 (Doc Rivers) 声明，双方没有就扬尼斯的未来进行任何对话，并且这位球星热爱密尔沃基。随便你怎么说吧，格伦。
- 12月18日：两周后，扬尼斯表示他无法控制他的经纪人与雄鹿队的讨论内容，然后又离奇地表示，鉴于流言四起，他很享受成为“比赛里最火辣的妞儿”。呃，扬尼斯，你难道没意识到你的经纪人是为你工作的吗？
- 12月27日：扬尼斯伤愈复出，在他缺阵期间雄鹿队战绩为3胜6负。
- 12月28日：在一位记者询问他是否想留在密尔沃基后，扬尼斯称这是一个“不尊重人的问题”，并说道：“我就在这儿，我在这儿。”
- 1月8日：The Athletic发布了扬尼斯与萨姆·阿米克 (Sam Amick) 的独家一对一专访（付费内容），“希腊怪物”在采访中表示他全身心投入于雄鹿，哪儿也不去。但随后他又补充说，这种感觉只适用于当天，而且他似乎经常对他妻子这么说(???)。扬尼斯，也许你没意识到，你在雄鹿队内的话语权可比你在婚姻中的大多了。
- 1月13日：在主场迎战缺少安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 和鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 的森林狼队时，雄鹿队惨遭血洗，主场球迷开始嘘自己的球队，而扬尼斯也反过来嘘他们。赛后，他解释说，如果任何观众对他报以嘘声，他也会同样回敬，哪怕是自己的球迷。他接着说：“当人们不相信我时，我不会选择与他们为伍。我会选择与他们为敌。”这话可真够狠的。
- 1月22日：在一场失利后，扬尼斯公开指责队友，称“有些人打得太自私”。在此前的四场比赛中，他每场的出手次数都不超过13次。
- 1月23日：扬尼斯在不到两年的时间里第三次拉伤右小腿，并自己给自己诊断的恢复时间是4-6周。雄鹿队以18胜26负的战绩排在东部第11位，距离最后一个附加赛名额还有3个胜场的差距。
都看明白了吗？很好，因为好戏才刚刚开始。
密尔沃基在交易截止日能做什么？
尽管雄鹿队步履维艰，但埃里克·内姆 (Eric Nehm) 一直报道称（付费内容），密尔沃基只打算在截止日做买家。从外部来看，这听起来荒谬可笑，但如果你身处一个从未吸引过任何自由球员的小球市管理层，试图不惜一切代价留住扬尼斯是可以理解的——特别是考虑到有他在场时，密尔沃基每百回合净胜5.4分，这个数据能排在全联盟第6。
反方观点呢？嗯，当他下场时，球队每百回合净负11.2分，与奇才队并列联盟最差，而且由于扬尼斯反复出现的小腿伤病，本赛季雄鹿队没有他上场的时间变得更多了。从客观角度看，做买家是完全没有道理的。首先，由于他们缺乏资产和财务限制，唯一能得到的球员是像扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 或贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 这样的严重不良资产——坦白说，这些球员并不是很出色。其次，即便他们真的做了这样的交易，扬尼斯已经有好几年没能连续保持两个月的健康了，所以谁又能指望他能撑过整个季后赛征程呢？
选秀如何影响这一切？
这一切中最大的变数是即将到来的选秀大会。密尔沃基仍然拥有他们自己2026年与鹈鹕队选秀权互换中“较差”的那一个，而亚特兰大则拥有那次互换中较好的那一个。换句话说，雄鹿队将在两个选秀权中得到顺位较低的那个，而考虑到新奥尔良鹈鹕队已经处于联盟垫底的位置，如果密尔沃基直接放弃本赛季，他们可以确保这两个选秀权都有很高的乐透概率。
如果你还没明白过来，老鹰队（通过鹈鹕队）和雄鹿队有可能拿到即将到来的选秀大会的状元签和榜眼签，从而让密尔沃基获得榜眼签。
是的，千真万确。
那么，让扬尼斯本赛季复出还有什么意义呢？密尔沃基已经落后附加赛区3个胜场，排在联盟总战绩榜第22位，仅领先状态火热的黄蜂队半个胜场。他们与排名第25的爵士队有4个胜场的差距，而爵士队与垫底的奇才队之间又有4个胜场的差距。这看起来像是一座难以攀登的大山，但考虑到没有扬尼斯时，雄鹿队.214的胜率比华盛顿奇才队还差——而且这还是在他们努力争胜的情况下——我毫不怀疑密尔沃基有能力加入垫底集团。
对他们来说，摆烂以争取尽可能高的签位要合理得多。得到迪班萨/布泽尔/彼得森其中之一的机会实在太难放弃了，即使发生这种情况的概率微乎其微。想象一下，如果密尔沃基最终得到这些潜力新秀中的一位，同时还设法交易来像莫兰特这样的改造对象——一个包含莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins) 和/或一个轻度保护的2031/32年选秀权的交易包对于任何不良资产来说都绰绰有余了。如果我说一个包含莫兰特/扬尼斯/特纳/乐透秀的阵容不让我心动，那我肯定是在撒谎。
再次声明，我不是建议他们这么做，但这支球队为了取悦他们的球星，已经做出了无数孤注一掷的举动，并且他们之前就曾引进过罪犯曾经风光过的球员。即使只是增加一个乐透中段的天赋球员，也能给雄鹿队带来一个值得围绕培养的有趣球员，或者作为交易筹码去换取另一位球星，而后者是更有可能出现的结果。
亚特兰大老鹰队的选秀权也可能在其中扮演重要角色。他们是否愿意将其纳入一个潜在的扬尼斯交易包中，哪怕这个签位最终进入了前三？如果密尔沃基也得到了一个高顺位签，他们是否会更愿意交易“希腊怪物”，因为他们现在有了两个潜在的建队基石级别的新秀可以围绕建队？再次强调，发生这种情况的几率微乎其微，但在看过达拉斯在5个月内交易掉卢卡 (Luka) 并选中库珀 (Cooper) 之后，我学会了永远不要排除任何可能性。
最终想法
交易扬尼斯似乎已不可避免。即便密尔沃基侥幸得到了一名优秀的首发球员和一个高顺位选秀权，我们已经无数次看到所谓的“双时间线”计划根本行不通（参见：达拉斯独行侠和金州勇士）。不过，由于他的伤病以及尚未提出交易要求，别指望他会在交易截止日前被送走，但休赛期的分手似乎已成定局。然而，这个复杂故事的另一个变数是，扬尼斯要到十月份才能被正式提供续约合同，如果双方继续维持这种不清不楚的关系，这出戏可能会一直拖到最后一刻。
所以，各位看官，准备好再忍受这事好几个月吧。从现在起，相关的噪音只会越来越大。
本周，请务必阅读玛丽莲 (Marilyn) 关于马刺队近期自满情绪的文章！自从在10天内3次击败雷霆队以来，圣安东尼奥一直处于低迷期，这对于一支尚未取得任何成就的年轻球队来说尤其令人失望。
感谢阅读！
所有数据均由 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 提供。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: timeline of the Giannis saga and why the draft could determine everything
Around the NBA: timeline of the Giannis saga and why the draft could determine everything
Whoever thinks that grown men are above high-school level drama don’t follow the NBA.
This season, we’ve already seen a superstar get punched (reportedly) for making fun of an opponent’s contract blunder, and a very mid player demand(!!!) a trade out of what he believes to be a “hostage” situation. Somehow, neither of those stories takes the cake, since an all-time great is now dragging out an inevitable divorce because he doesn’t have the cojones to look like the bad guy.
What makes it sillier is that Giannis had a teammate in Dame who went through this exact saga, which resulted in them teaming up. You’d think he might’ve learned a thing or two from that, but instead, he’s copying Dame’s playbook to the tee.
With the trade deadline fast approaching and the Bucks hitting rock bottom, there’s no better time to look at what they could do with their seemingly disgruntled superstar.
First, we need to map out everything that’s led up to this point.
Timeline
Rumours about a potential Giannis departure have gone on for much longer than 6 months, but let’s focus on this season for the sake of sanity.
- Sept 29th: On media day, Bucks owner Wes Eden claimed that he and Giannis had a productive meeting over the summer that ended with the star affirming his loyalty to the franchise. An hour later, Giannis said that he does not remember such a meeting. Wait, what?
- October 7th: Shams reported that the Bucks gave the Knicks an exclusive window to discuss a potential Giannis trade in August, after the Greek Freak revealed New York to be the only team he’d be open to playing for, outside of Milwaukee.
- Oct 22nd – Dec 1: Milwaukee starts the season 9-13 — 8-8 with Giannis in the lineup, and 1-5 without him.
- Dec 1: Giannis strains his right calf, which is the same injury that kept him out of the 2024 playoffs.
- Dec 3: Just days after his calf strain, Shams reported that Giannis is meeting with the Bucks again to discuss his future, before Doc Rivers stated that there have been no conversations regarding Giannis’ future and that the star loves Milwaukee. Whatever you say, Glen.
- Dec 18: Two weeks after, Giannis said that he can’t control what his agent discusses with the Bucks, then bizarrely stated that he’s enjoyed being “the hottest chick in the game,” given the circulating rumours. Umm, you do realize that your agent works for you, right Giannis?
- Dec 27: Giannis returns from his injury, with the Bucks going 3-6 in his absence.
- Dec 28: Giannis calls out a “disrespectful” question after a reporter asked if he wants to stay in Milwaukee, saying: “I’m here, I’m here.”
- Jan 8: The Athletic publishes an exclusive one-on-one interview between Giannis and Sam Amick (paywall), where the Greek Freak says that he is invested in the Bucks and isn’t going anywhere. However, he followed up and said that those feelings only applied to that day, something that he apparently says a lot to his wife(???). Maybe you don’t realize this, Giannis, but you have a lot more power in the Bucks organization than you do in your marriage.
- Jan 13: With the Bucks getting blown out at home against a Minnesota team without Ant or Gobert, the fans began booing their team, and Giannis booed right back at them. Postgame, he explained that he’ll boo any crowd if they give him the same treatment, even if it’s his own fans. He then said that “when people don’t believe in me, I don’t tend to be with them. I tend to be against them.” Damn.
- Jan 22: Giannis calls out his teammates after a loss, saying that “guys are being selfish,” following a four-game span where he had 13 field goal attempts or fewer in every match.
- Jan 23: Giannis re-injures his right calf for the third time in less than two years and provided a self-diagnosed timeline of 4-6 weeks. The Bucks sit 11th in the East with a 18-26 record and remain 3 games out of the final play-in spot.
Got all that? Good, because we’re just getting started.
What can Milwaukee do at the deadline?
Despite the Bucks’ struggles, Eric Nehm has consistently reported (paywall) that Milwaukee only has intentions of buying at the deadline. That sounds ludicrous from the outside, but if you’re part of a front office in a small market that never attracts any free agents, it’s understandable to try and keep Giannis at all costs — especially considering that Milwaukee is +5.4 per 100 possessions with him on the court, which would be the 6th best mark league-wide.
The counterargument? Well, they’re -11.2 when he sits, tying the Wizards for the worst mark in the league, and the Bucks have played more minutes without Giannis this season due to his recurring calf injuries. From an unbiased perspective, it makes absolutely no sense to buy. First, due to their lack of assets and financial constraints, the only players they could acquire are heavily distressed assets like a Zach LaVine or Ja Morant – players who frankly aren’t very good. Secondly, even if they do make such moves, it’s been years since Giannis has strung together two months of health, so why would anyone expect him to last through an entire playoff run?
How does the draft factor into this?
The biggest X-factor in all this is the upcoming draft. Milwaukee still owns the “bad” end of their own 2026 pick swap between themselves and the Pelicans, with Atlanta owning the better half of that swap. In other words, the Bucks would have the lower draft position between the two picks, and given that New Orleans is already at the bottom of the league, Milwaukee could guarantee that both picks would have high lottery odds if they pull the plug on this season.
If it hasn’t dawned on you yet, there is a possibility that the Hawks (via the Pelicans) and Bucks get the 1st and 2nd picks of the upcoming draft, thus giving Milwaukee the #2 overall selection.
Yes, really.
So what point is there in having Giannis return this season? Milwaukee is already 3 games out of the play-in, sitting 22nd in the overall league standings and just a half game ahead of the red-hot Hornets. There is a 4-game gap between them and the 25th-ranked Jazz, and another 4-game difference between the Jazz and the last-place Wizards. It might seem like a big hill to climb, but I don’t doubt Milwaukee’s ability to join that group when their .214 winning percentage without Giannis is worse than Washington’s — and that’s with them trying to win!
It makes way more sense for them to tank and get the highest pick possible. The chance to get one of Dybantsa/Boozer/Peterson is too hard to pass up, even if the odds of that happening are minuscule. Imagine if Milwaukee does end up with one of those prospects while also managing to trade for a reclamation project like Ja — a package involving Rollins and/or a lightly protected 2031/32 pick would be more than enough for any distressed asset, and I’d be lying if I said that a lineup including Ja/Giannis/Turner/lottery pick doesn’t intrigue me.
Again, I am not advising them to do that, but this franchise has made countless desperation moves as a last-ditch attempt to appease their star, and they’ve acquired criminals once-relevant players before. Even adding a mid-lottery talent could give the Bucks either an intriguing player to build around or use as a trade chip to acquire another star, which is the likeliest outcome.
Atlanta’s pick could play a big role in this as well. Would they be willing to include it in a potential package for Giannis, even if it ends up in the top-3? And if Milwaukee gets a high pick too, would they be more willing to deal the Greek Freak now that they have two potential cornerstone prospects to build around? Again, the chances of that happening are close to nil, but I’ve learned to never rule out anything after watching Dallas trade Luka and draft Cooper within the span of 5 months.
Final thoughts
A Giannis trade still seems inevitable. Even in the off chance that Milwaukee acquires a good starter along with a high pick, we’ve seen countless times that the two timelines “plan” just doesn’t work (see: Mavericks, Dallas, and Warriors, Golden State). Don’t expect him to be moved before the deadline, though, due to his injury and lack of a trade demand, but a divorce seems certain in the offseason. Still, another wrinkle in this convoluted saga is that Giannis can’t officially be offered an extension until October, and if both sides continue this situationship, it could drag out until the last minute.
So, get ready for many more months of this, peeps. The noise will only intensify from here.
This week, please check out Marilyn’s article on the Spurs’ recent complacency! San Antonio’s been in a lull ever since they beat OKC 3 times in 10 days, which is especially disappointing for a young team that hasn’t accomplished anything yet.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock