By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2025-12-29 20:00:00
NBA的赛场永远不会无聊——本赛季也不例外。
赛季至今，既有惊喜的开局（我们看到你了，活塞），也有糟糕的开端（不幸的是，我们也看到你了，快船）。既有给多家球队蒙上阴影的丑闻（是的，不止一桩），也有一位历史级巨星克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 或许不甚光彩的生涯终章（或许），而且我们可能正在见证体育史上公认的最伟大球员勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的最后一个赛季。
一路走来，联盟中的明星球员们奉献了无数精彩的个人表演，让每个比赛日都充满了有趣的对决。
考虑到这一切，我们制作了一份速览指南，帮助你快速了解过去几个月NBA发生的所有大事——以及从现在到六月，当下一届NBA总冠军诞生之时，所有即将上演的剧情。
以下是我们对联盟过去、现在和未来故事线的全面剖析，以及我们的记者和分析师认为你需要知道的一切：
快速跳转至：
赛季至今回顾 | 核心问题
全明星预测 | 奖项争夺
最佳阵容预测 | 最终排名预测
乐透区观察 | 潜在交易对象
赛季至今你可能错过的五件事
卫冕冠军强势归来，但他们能实现两连冠吗？ 2024-25赛季的雷霆是联盟历史上第二年轻的总冠军球队，仅次于1977年的开拓者。在那个历史性的赛季之后，雷霆本赛季以24胜1负的开局和创纪录的净胜分强势开启新征程。就在几周前，他们迈向第二座总冠军奖杯——并终结联盟连续七年无卫冕冠军的局面——似乎已是板上钉钉。
但那是在12天内与维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和马刺队三次交锋之前——一次是在拉斯维加斯的NBA杯半决赛，一次在圣安东尼奥，还有一次在俄克拉荷马城——结果雷霆均以失利告终。
在圣诞大战取得一场大胜后，联盟卫冕MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 表示，在连输三场后，他不能说雷霆比马刺更强。我们倒不至于这么认为——这支马刺队还从未打过一场季后赛——但在雷霆、马刺、掘金、火箭和森林狼之间，西部季后赛的对决应该会无比精彩。
年轻人正在接管联盟： 活塞队在仅仅两年前还创下了NBA历史连败纪录，如今却凭借MVP早期竞争者凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)（24岁）、崛起的内线杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)（22岁）以及联盟顶尖的外线防守者之一奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson)（22岁）的出色表现，以24胜8负的战绩高居东部榜首。
虽然火箭队在休赛期引进了老将凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，但年轻球员阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)、阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)、小贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.) 和里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 的持续成长，让火箭队已准备好在季后赛中走得更远。我们提到马刺队至今的表现了吗？
与此同时，本届新秀也带来了立竿见影的影响。库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 在达拉斯的开局非常出色，圣安东尼奥的迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和费城的VJ·埃奇科姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 也在季后赛级别的球队中扮演着重要角色。他们并非个例。康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 在夏洛特的表现堪称杰出，在那里，二轮秀瑞安·卡尔克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner) 也可能成为球队首发中锋的长远选择。德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen) 和杰里迈亚·菲尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears) 在鹈鹕队的开局同样令人印象深刻，塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward) 也已证明自己是灰熊队未来的建队基石。对于一届新秀来说，这影响力太大了，尤其是在日历还没翻到一月的时候。
对达拉斯而言，这一年将永生难忘： 用“混乱”一词远不足以形容独行侠队过去12个月的经历，从令人震惊的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 交易，到凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 的前十字韧带撕裂，再到通过选秀乐透抽中状元签得到弗拉格。这场混乱最终导致总经理尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison) 在本赛季开始几周后因开局惨淡以及外界对他将东契奇交易至洛杉矶的持续愤怒而被解雇。
尽管那笔交易永远不会有合理的解释，但独行侠得到弗拉格，让他们拥有了各支球队梦寐以求的攻防一体的超级巨星。在他职业生涯的最初几周，弗拉格就展示了他为何是如此备受追捧的新星。他多次做到了只有另一位备受瞩目的少年天才——勒布朗·詹姆斯——曾经做到的事情。
快船队的艰难三个月： 这支球队曾被预测为西部前六的种子队，并且将主办2026年全明星赛。然而，无论场上场下，他们都成了头条新闻，但没有一个是正面的。
自九月以来，快船队因与科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的一笔赞助协议涉嫌规避工资帽而接受调查。本月早些时候，球队出人意料地与队魂克里斯·保罗分道扬镳。而这套赛季初全联盟最年长的阵容，如今以10胜21负的战绩在积分榜上垫底。
更糟糕的是，洛杉矶那个无保护的2026年首轮选秀权，作为2019年保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 交易的一部分，将送往雷霆队——对于卫冕冠军来说，这份大礼真是送个没完。
关于非法体育博彩和操纵扑克游戏的联邦调查： 开拓者队主教练昌西·比卢普斯 (Chauncey Billups)、热火队后卫特里·罗齐尔 (Terry Rozier) 和前球员达蒙·琼斯 (Damon Jones) 的起诉震惊了联盟，也让这两支球队陷入了混乱。
比卢普斯和罗齐尔被NBA处以无限期停赛。比卢普斯的职位由助理教练、前马刺队中锋蒂亚戈·斯普利特 (Tiago Splitter) 临时接替。从NBA的角度来看，围绕热火队最有趣的问题是，他们是否能为2024年1月交易得到罗齐尔时付出的首轮签获得补偿，以及迈阿密是否会被允许交易他。 – 蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)
五大核心问题
雷霆对胜场纪录的追逐已经结束了吗？
很可能。两周前，当他们带着16连胜和24胜1负的耀眼战绩闯入拉斯维加斯参加NBA杯时，这看起来还更有可能，这战绩与当年73胜的勇士队前25场比赛完全相同。但雷霆在拉斯维加斯输给了马刺，随后在明尼苏达不敌安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 在最后时刻率领的攻势，接着又两次被马刺队大胜。
所以他们现在的战绩是27胜5负，这让他们明显落后于破纪录的进度。那支创造纪录的勇士队在常规赛中一路高歌猛进，战绩曾达到36胜2负、37胜3负、48胜4负和55胜5负。雷霆有能力再打出几波可观的连胜，从而对纪录发起冲击，但他们最多只能再输三场比赛。即便是冲击70胜也已成为一项严峻的挑战。他们必须在最后50场比赛中取得43胜7负的战绩。 – 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)
这会是勒布朗·詹姆斯的最后一个赛季吗？
看看目前的蛛丝马迹就知道了。詹姆斯正处于合同的最后一年。他的挚友兼经纪人，来自Klutch Sports的里奇·保罗 (Rich Paul)，在夏天告诉ESPN，詹姆斯没有要求与湖人队续约。我们也看到詹姆斯在某些场合流露出感性的一面——比如本赛季湖人队唯一一次客场造访多伦多后，他在社交媒体上表达了对这座城市的热爱；以及在费城打完比赛后，他诗意地感慨自己将会多么怀念那些充满激情的客场球馆。
詹姆斯也明确表示，他已经准备好让NBA篮球之外的其他事情占据他的时间和兴趣。在过去一周，他说自己没有资格评论爵士后卫基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George) 的全明星前景，因为他的业余时间都在YouTube上看高尔夫视频。他还说，在人生的这个阶段，他更愿意在圣诞节和家人待在家里，而不是上场打球。
这可能只是一位名人堂级别职业生涯的漫长告别之旅的开始，真正的倒计时将在他的第24或第25个赛季才真正开始。但话又说回来，我们也可能正在见证詹姆斯职业生涯最后的大约50场常规赛。 – 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)
活塞队是真材实料吗？
一些数据表明确实如此，即便他们如火箭般蹿升的势头会让人心存疑虑。活塞队防守效率排名第二，仅次于俄克拉荷马雷霆，这一数据支持了这一理论。坎宁安是MVP排名前五的候选人，加上以赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 是联盟最好的内线防守者之一，这两个因素不容忽视。感觉他们联盟倒数三分之一的三分投射能力会拖后腿，但到目前为止还没有，因为他们在关键时刻表现太出色了（联盟第一），防守端也极其凶悍。
活塞队目前感觉没必要对阵容进行微调，他们更倾向于让年轻球员们继续磨合。即使尼克斯在东部榜首的位置上超越他们，也很难想象会议中还有其他球队能做到这一点。他们是真材实料。 – 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博真的可能被交易吗？
本赛季，雄鹿队与争冠行列之间的鸿沟呈指数级扩大。雄鹿目前排在第11位，距离东部附加赛区还差1.5个胜场。赛季开始前，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 曾表示，球队的目标之一是不在季后赛首轮被淘汰，而就目前情况来看，雄鹿甚至可能连首轮都进不了。阿德托昆博因伤缺席了12场比赛，他的辅助阵容在他缺阵的情况下战绩为2胜10负。
ESPN的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 在12月3日报道称，阿德托昆博和他的经纪人已开始与球队就他的未来展开讨论。从那以后，雄鹿队一直处于自由落体般的下滑之中，这也是为什么全NBA的目光都聚焦在密尔沃基和阿德托昆博的未来上。 – 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)
快船队的下一步是什么？
在伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 因脚踝伤势将缺席数周之前，快船队在15场比赛中输掉了13场。这个赛季简直是一场灾难，这还没算上笼罩在球队上空的Aspiration赞助疑云，或是克里斯·保罗的闹剧。尽管如此，也很难想象快船会选择完全重建。俄克拉荷马雷霆控制着他们2026年的首轮签和2027年首轮签的互换权，所以摆烂没有任何好处。
与此同时，他们也会注意保持未来的灵活性。多年来，快船一直计划在2027年夏天科怀·伦纳德合同到期时大展拳脚。詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 在2026-27赛季也拥有4200万美元的球员选项。除非哈登对洛杉矶心生厌倦并希望转投一支争冠球队，否则合理的预测是，快船将在交易截止日前围绕伦纳德和哈登探索补强方案，并争取进入附加赛。
快船始终相信，如果能补充更多的得分、防守和急需的年轻运动能力，只要伦纳德和哈登保持健康，他们就能在季后赛中制造一些声浪。他们有一些老将，比如布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez) 和博格丹·博格达诺维奇 (Bogdan Bogdanovic)，他们的合同即将到期且包含球队选项，这使得球队有可能在截止日前采取行动。 – 奥姆·扬米苏克 (Ohm Youngmisuk)
赛季剩余部分预测
以下是ESPN篮球实力指数(BPI)对本赛季最终走向的预测：
东西部最终排名预测
| 预测排名 | 球队 | 预测战绩 | 预测排名 | 球队 | 预测战绩 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 俄克拉荷马雷霆 | 65-17 | 1 | 纽约尼克斯 | 56.1-25.9 |
| 2 | 休斯顿火箭 | 56-26 | 2 | 底特律活塞 | 54.1-27.9 |
| 3 | 丹佛掘金 | 55-27 | 3 | 波士顿凯尔特人 | 50.0-32.0 |
| 4 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 53-29 | 4 | 奥兰多魔术 | 48.0-34.0 |
| 5 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 48-34 | 5 | 克利夫兰骑士 | 45.6-36.4 |
| 6 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 47-35 | 6 | 迈阿密热火 | 45.2-36.8 |
| 7* | 金州勇士 | 45-37 | 7* | 费城76人 | 44.6-37.4 |
| 8* | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 43-39 | 8* | 多伦多猛龙 | 41.9-40.1 |
| 9* | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 42-40 | 9* | 亚特兰大老鹰 | 40.1-41.9 |
| 10* | 洛杉矶快船 | 36-46 | 10* | 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 36.3-45.7 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 截至12月28日的预测，*代表附加赛球队 |
东部头名之争异常激烈： 底特律目前领先纽约2.5个胜场，但尼克斯更高的季前预测意味着他们在这场竞争中略占优势。在使用BPI进行的模拟中，纽约有61%的概率获得头号种子，而活塞为33%。赛季剩余时间的健康状况可能会决定东部季后赛的主场优势最终花落底特律还是纽约。
西部第二的争夺战： 休斯顿目前排名第四，但有利的剩余赛程（根据BPI，在西部季后赛级别的球队中最为轻松）和高达+8.8的强劲净胜分（联盟第三）意味着火箭仍有40%的概率最终排名第二，高于丹佛掘金的35%。目前排名第二的圣安东尼奥马刺（20%）也同样在竞争之列。
强队也可能落入附加赛？ 骑士和勇士去年都赢下了一轮季后赛，但BPI表明，本赛季这两支球队都可能掉入附加赛。（金州勇士去年就在附加赛区，在交易截止日得到巴特勒后，最终与前六失之交臂。）勇士队只有37%的模拟结果能进入前六，而克利夫兰的概率为66%——这与去年同期骑士队还在争夺联盟最佳战绩的情景相去甚远。 – 凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton)
值得关注的潜在交易对象
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
安东尼·戴维斯，达拉斯独行侠
乔纳森·库明加，金州勇士
锡安·威廉姆森，新奥尔良鹈鹕
克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯，亚特兰大老鹰
这份候选名单由两届MVP阿德托昆博和十届全明星戴维斯领衔。但仅仅因为两人会在交易截止日前被提及，并不意味着他们中的任何一个会被交易。虽然雄鹿目前在季后赛圈外，但他们仍在寻求围绕阿德托昆博补强阵容。他们有一个可交易的首轮签（2031年或2032年），以及迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)、鲍比·波蒂斯 (Bobby Portis) 和凯尔·库兹马 (Kyle Kuzma)——这三名球员本赛季的薪资总和达到6000万美元。
与此同时，在以5胜15负开局后，独行侠近13场比赛取得7胜6负，正在争夺最后几个附加赛名额。这样的战绩回暖以及凯里·欧文的可能复出，是否会让戴维斯的交易谈判暂时搁置？或者，今年夏天即将到来的续约——戴维斯有资格签下一份为期四年、价值2.75亿美元的合同——是否会让独行侠仍考虑交易这位大个子？
在其他方面，于九月底签下两年4650万美元合同的库明加，将于1月15日获得被交易的资格。在为勇士首发了前12场比赛后，库明加已经跌出了轮换阵容，在勇士过去八场比赛中有七场没有出战。
在新奥尔良，伤病继续影响着威廉姆森。他在12月份场均得到21.1分，2.7次助攻，投篮命中率为58.6%。这位2019年的状元秀和全明星球员，有望在七个赛季中第六次出场少于65场。由于这些伤病，威廉姆森在2026-27赛季和2027-28赛季的薪水仍然是非保障的。
最后，尽管只为亚特兰大打了13场比赛，波尔津吉斯价值3070万美元的到期合同是一个宝贵的交易筹码。波尔津吉斯目前因病缺阵。 – 鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks)
全明星阵容预测
全明星赛的赛制再次改变，将有三支球队，每队八人——其中两队由美国球员组成，第三队为国际球员选拔。以下是扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 对这场将于2月15日（周日）在洛杉矶举行的比赛的阵容预测：
东部联盟
铁定入选：
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人
杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯
凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
杰伦·杜伦，底特律活塞
杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，亚特兰大老鹰
泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，费城76人
多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士
卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)，纽约尼克斯
基本入选：
巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)，迈阿密热火
斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙
约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey)，芝加哥公牛
诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 是东部的最大遗珠。热火队可能只有一个全明星名额，而阿德巴约凭借其防守贡献以及鲍威尔在12月的相对低迷，入选的理由稍强一些。帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 和小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 在弱队中表现出色，而OG·阿努诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 看起来很棒，但他们是纽约的第三和第四选择。奥兰多是东部前十中唯一没有球员入选这份全明星名单的球队，因为很难确定谁能代表魔术队：德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 在找到状态前经历了一段非常糟糕的漫长时期，而弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 则因伤导致数据下滑。
西部联盟
铁定入选：
斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)，金州勇士
卢卡·东契奇，达拉斯独行侠
凯文·杜兰特，休斯顿火箭
安东尼·爱德华兹，明尼苏达森林狼
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马雷霆
尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)，丹佛掘金
阿尔佩伦·申京，休斯顿火箭
维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺
基本入选：
德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者
切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，俄克拉荷马雷霆
贾马尔·默里 (Jamal Murray)，丹佛掘金
奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)，洛杉矶湖人
西部的全明星竞争异常激烈，导致许多有实力的候选人遗憾落选。德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 是这里最大的遗珠，作为西部最令人惊喜的竞争者的领袖，但他的效率（很大程度上源于30.1%的三分命中率）尚未达到其他全明星候选人的水准。朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 也是一个艰难的割舍，而劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)、詹姆斯·哈登和科怀·伦纳德的入选理由则因其球队在战绩上远远落后而受到影响。
根据新全明星赛制的要求，目前预测的阵容包括15名美国球员和9名国际球员，或者14名美国球员和10名国际球员，这取决于唐斯被分到哪一组——他出生于新泽西，但为多米尼加国家队效力。这将为总裁亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 留下一到两个名额来增补美国队的全明星阵容，这对布克和兰德尔来说是个好消息。 – 克拉姆
赛季初期奖项预测选票
我们邀请了内部专家，让他们对各大奖项进行排名：
MVP
- 尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马雷霆
- 凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
- 卢卡·东契奇，洛杉矶湖人
- 杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯
目前来看，约基奇以极其微弱的优势胜出。最近，约基奇的伟大得到了再次印证，而俄克拉荷马雷霆的迅猛势头有所减缓。约基奇在每48分钟胜利贡献值上领先全联盟，这在过去40年中一直是该奖项最有力的预测指标。坎宁安本赛季不仅实现了飞跃，而且他无疑是候选人中最好的防守者。东契奇和布伦森表现出色，随着竞争进入尾声，他们是值得关注的名字。如果骑士队没有挣扎得如此厉害，我们现在讨论的就会是多诺万·米切尔。费城的泰瑞斯·马克西也是同理。难道大家不都觉得，在维克托·文班亚马开始年复一年地将自己的名字刻在这个奖项上之前，所有人只是在为他占个位置吗？ – 古德威尔
年度最佳新秀
- 库珀·弗拉格，达拉斯独行侠
- 康·克努佩尔，夏洛特黄蜂
- 德里克·奎恩，新奥尔良鹈鹕
这届新秀已经很好地适应了联盟，许多球员已经做出了真正的贡献，尽管并非所有人都在赢球的环境中。弗拉格在12月份表现稳定，成为NBA历史上单场得到40分的最年轻球员。他的大学队友克努佩尔紧随其后，成为史上最快投进100个三分球的球员，看起来是黄蜂队未来的基石。与此同时，奎恩已经尽其所能，让鹈鹕球迷忘记了在选秀夜为了得到他付出了什么。
许多其他新秀也有高光时刻，包括迪伦·哈珀、VJ·埃奇科姆和杰里迈亚·菲尔斯。这群球员在接下来的几个月乃至更远的未来如何发展，将继续印证人们对他们的所有乐观期待。弗拉格是领跑者，但常规赛还有很长的路要走。 – 杰里米·伍 (Jeremy Woo)
年度最佳防守球员
- 维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺
- 切特·霍姆格伦，俄克拉荷马雷霆
- 阿门·汤普森，休斯顿火箭
在未来几年，只要保持健康，这个奖项的归属就将取决于文班亚马自己。令人惊叹的是，仅仅是他在场上，就足以让当今最顶级的得分手，如谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和杰伦·布伦森，改变他们的打法。然而，文班亚马很有可能无法达到65场比赛的门槛。在这种情况下，霍姆格伦——作为联盟最佳防守球队之一的护筐中坚——应该会成为赢得该荣誉的热门人选。 – 邦坦普斯
最快进步球员
- 杰伦·约翰逊，亚特兰大老鹰
- 德尼·阿夫迪亚，波特兰开拓者
- 内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta)，波士顿凯尔特人
从我个人倾向来看，我最喜欢的MIP候选人是那些已经在联盟打了几个赛季的球员，因为对于二、三年级球员来说，取得进步是意料之中，而对于那些已经有固定水平的球员来说，再取得进步则更令人印象深刻。约翰逊和阿夫迪亚目前是领跑者，这两位24岁的球员都因承担了前所未有的持球责任而实现了巨大飞跃，应该都能首次入选全明星。
在这份早期选票的最后一个位置上，至少有十几位合理的候选人，克塔最终入选是因为他对这支表现超出预期的凯尔特人队的重要性。在他职业生涯首次获得较长的首发机会期间，作为离队的艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 的替代者，凯尔特人队在克塔在场时净效率值为+6.6，而他不在场时仅为+2.6。 – 克拉姆
赛季初期最佳阵容选票
我们还邀请了凯文·佩尔顿给出他的NBA最佳阵容预测：
最佳阵容一阵
- 凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
- 卢卡·东契奇，洛杉矶湖人
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马雷霆
- 尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金
- 多诺万·米切尔，克利夫兰骑士
最佳阵容二阵
- 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
- 杰伦·布朗，波士顿凯尔特人
- 泰瑞斯·马克西，费城76人
- 贾马尔·默里，丹佛掘金
- 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯，纽约尼克斯
最佳阵容三阵
- 杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯
- 吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III)，金州勇士
- 安东尼·爱德华兹，明尼苏达森林狼
- 杰伦·约翰逊，亚特兰大老鹰
- 维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺
在赛季半程之前评选最佳阵容的挑战在于如何处理伤病问题。目前，文班亚马因小腿拉伤缺席的12场比赛占了赛程的近三分之一。到赛季结束时，这可能只是一段小插曲——除非文班亚马再缺席足够多的比赛（总计至少17场），从而失去评选最佳阵容的资格，这对阿德托昆博来说也是一个潜在的威胁。
目前，我暂时将他们视作有资格入选来安排，但他们出场时间相对较少，这使得阿德托昆博降至二阵，文班亚马降至三阵。斯蒂芬·库里（缺席9场）在评选资格方面也处于类似境地，但他在健康时的统治力稍逊一筹，因此未能入选。奥斯汀·里夫斯也没有入选，他至今打出了最佳阵容级别的水平，但将因二级小腿拉伤而长期缺阵。
当然，最引人注目的例外是勒布朗·詹姆斯，他已经缺席了16场比赛，这意味着他几乎肯定会失去延续其连续21次入选NBA最佳阵容纪录的资格。 – 佩尔顿
2026年NBA选秀乐透预测
以下是ESPN篮球实力指数(BPI)对乐透区顺位的预测，乐透抽签将于五月举行：
2025-26赛季 NBA BPI 预测选秀顺位
| 预测顺位 | 球队 | 预测战绩 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 华盛顿奇才 | 18-64 |
| 2 | 印第安纳步行者 | 21-61 |
| 3 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 (来自亚特兰大) | 25-57 |
| 4 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 25-57 |
| 5 | 犹他爵士 (来自俄克拉荷马) | 27-55 |
| 6 | 布鲁克林篮网 | 28-54 |
| 7 | 夏洛特黄蜂 | 31-51 |
| 8 | 波特兰开拓者 | 33-49 |
| 9 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 34-48 |
| 10 | 芝加哥公牛 | 34-48 |
| 11 | 洛杉矶快船 (来自俄克拉荷马) | 36-46 |
| 12 | 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 36-46 |
| 13 | 亚特兰大老鹰 (来自圣安东尼奥) | 40-42 |
| 14 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 42-40 |
联盟内部人士几个月来一直预期的激烈摆烂大战，因2025年选秀大会顶级新秀的实力强大而进一步加剧。目前的战绩榜非常拥挤，本赛季的四个乐透签位都将带来重大影响。尽管ESPN排名第一的新秀达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson) 因伤缺席了本赛季大部分比赛，但AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 和卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 已挺身而出，成为大学篮球界最出色的两名球员。凯莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson) 和金斯顿·弗莱明斯 (Kingston Flemings) 则是紧随其后的下一批新星。这是一个输得越多、回报越丰厚的赛季。
值得注意的是，BPI指数对快船队的预测较为有利，预计他们将重返中游。由于该选秀权目前属于俄克拉荷马雷霆，联盟其他球队很可能会乐于见到这种情况。预计新奥尔良鹈鹕的战绩也会有所改善，他们很可能会无保护地将选秀权送往亚特兰大。
乐透区的最终面貌将取决于谁拥有哪个签位，类似于我们在2022年看到的情况。彼得森的缺席为迪班萨和布泽尔敞开了大门，他们各自都在为状元之位提出有力的论据，挑战了季前赛时外界对这位堪萨斯大学后卫不甚稳固的共识。这三位球员在分区赛中的表现将产生重大影响，但可以肯定的是，在五月的乐透抽签结束后，将会有多支球队笑着离开。 – 伍
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2025-26 NBA season: What you missed, biggest storylines to watch
2025-26 NBA season: What you missed, biggest storylines to watch
The NBA is never boring – and this season is no different.
There have been surprising starts, both in good (we see you, Pistons) and bad (unfortunately, we see you, too, Clippers) ways. There have been scandals (yes, plural) that have cast a shadow over multiple franchises. There has been one ignominious ending (maybe) for an all-time great in Chris Paul, and we could potentially be seeing the last season of LeBron James, arguably the greatest player in the history of the sport.
Along the way, there have been plenty of remarkable performances by the league’s stars, leading to fun action on a nightly basis.
With all of that in mind, we created a cheat sheet to get caught up on everything that has happened across the NBA over the past few months – and everything that is set to happen between now and June, when the next NBA champion will be crowned.
Here’s a look at the past, present and future stories across the league, and everything our reporters and analysts think you need to know:
Jump to:
What you missed so far | Biggest questions
All-Star projections | Award races
All-NBA ballots | Projected standings
Lottery watch | Trade candidates
Five things you might’ve missed so far
The champs are back with a vengeance, but can they go back-to-back? The 2024-25 Thunder were the second-youngest championship team in league history, behind the 1977 Trail Blazers. The Thunder followed that historic season with a 24-1 start to this campaign and a record-setting point differential. Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like their march to a second title – and snapping a seven-year stretch without a repeat champion – was inevitable.
But that was before three matchups with Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in a 12-day span – one in Las Vegas in the NBA Cup semifinals, one in San Antonio and one in Oklahoma City – ended in OKC defeats.
After a double-digit win on Christmas, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league’s reigning MVP, said he couldn’t say the Thunder are better than the Spurs after losing three straight games. We won’t go quite that far – these Spurs have yet to play a playoff game – but between the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets and Timberwolves, the Western Conference playoffs should be tremendous.
Youth is being served across the league: The Pistons, just two years after setting the NBA’s record for consecutive losses, are atop the Eastern Conference with a 24-8 record behind early MVP contender Cade Cunningham (24 years old), rising big man Jalen Duren (22) and Ausar Thompson (22), one of the league’s premier perimeter defenders.
While the Rockets added veteran Kevin Durant this offseason, continued growth from youngsters Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard have the Rockets primed for a deep playoff run. And did we mention what the Spurs have done so far?
Meanwhile, the rookie class has had an instant impact. Cooper Flagg is off to a terrific start in Dallas, and Dylan Harper in San Antonio and VJ Edgecombe in Philadelphia are playing significant roles for playoff teams. They aren’t alone. Kon Knueppel has been outstanding in Charlotte, where second-rounder Ryan Kalkbrenner also might be a long-term option to start at center. Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears are off to impressive starts for the Pelicans, too, and Cedric Coward has established himself as a future building block for the Grizzlies. That’s a lot of impact from one rookie class, particularly before the calendar flips to January.
The year will never be forgotten in Dallas: Chaotic doesn’t begin to describe these past 12 months for the Mavericks, from the stunning Luka Doncic trade to Kyrie Irving tearing an ACL to landing Flagg via the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery. The chaos ultimately led to general manager Nico Harrison dismissal a few weeks into this season after a dismal start and ongoing anger toward him for trading Doncic to Los Angeles.
But while that trade will never have a good explanation, the Mavericks’ landing Flagg presented them with the two-way superstar teams dream of landing. In the first few weeks of his pro career, Flagg showed why he was such a coveted prospect. He has repeatedly done things that only one other touted teenager, LeBron James, has ever done.
A rough three months for the Clippers: The franchise was projected as a top-six seed in the Western Conference with the 2026 All-Star Game headed its way. It has made headlines on and off the court, however, and none have been positive.
Since September, the Clippers have been under investigation for salary cap circumvention relating to a sponsorship deal with Kawhi Leonard. Earlier this month, the team shockingly parted ways with franchise icon Chris Paul. And the roster, the oldest in the NBA entering the season, is near the bottom of the standings at 10-21.
To make matters even worse, LA’s unprotected 2026 first-round pick is headed to the Thunder as part of the 2019 Paul George trade – the gift that keeps on giving for the defending champs.
Federal investigations into illegal sports betting and rigged poker games: The indictments of Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, Heat guard Terry Rozier and former player Damon Jones rocked the league and have left both organizations scrambling.
Billups and Rozier were placed on indefinite leave by the NBA. Billups has been replaced on an interim basis by assistant coach and former Spurs center Tiago Splitter. From an NBA perspective, the most interesting questions surrounding the Heat are whether they will get compensation for the first-round pick traded to acquire Rozier in January 2024 and whether Miami will be allowed to trade him. – Tim Bontemps
Five big questions
Is the Thunder’s chase for the wins record already over?
Probably. It seemed more reasonable two weeks ago when they stormed into Las Vegas for the NBA Cup on a 16-game win streak with a sparkling 24-1 record, the exact mark that the 73-win Warriors had through 25 games. But the Thunder lost to the Spurs in Vegas, succumbed a late Anthony Edwards-led surge in Minnesota and then were blown out two more times by the Spurs.
So they’re 27-5, putting them notably behind pace for the record. Those record-breaking Warriors were 36-2, 37-3, 48-4 and 55-5 as they rolled through the regular season. The Thunder are capable of rattling off a few more major win streaks to threaten an outside shot at the record, but they can afford only three more losses. Even reaching 70 wins has become a stiff challenge. They’d have to go 43-7 in the final 50 games. – Anthony Slater
Could this be LeBron James’ final season?
Just look at the clues so far. James is in the final year of his contract. His longtime friend and agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, told ESPN over the summer that James didn’t ask for an extension with the Lakers. We’ve also seen James stop to smell the roses in some instances – like when he posted love for the city of Toronto after L.A.'s lone trip there this season, and when he waxed poetic about how much he will miss electric road arenas after the Lakers played in Philadelphia.
James has also let it be known how much he is ready for other things to occupy his time and interests besides NBA basketball. In the past week, he said he isn’t qualified to speak about Jazz guard Keyonte George’s All-Star credentials because he is watching too much YouTube golf in his spare time. He also said at this point in his life, he is ready to be home with his family rather than playing on Christmas Day.
This could just be the extended wind-down to a Hall of Fame career and the countdown will really begin in his 24th or 25th season. Then again, we could also be looking ahead at the last 50 or so regular-season games that James has left in him. – Dave McMenamin
Are the Pistons for real?
Some of the numbers suggest so, even if the rocket-like trajectory can give one pause. The Pistons ranking second in defense, trailing only Oklahoma City, would support that theory. Cunningham being a top-five MVP candidate, along with Isaiah Stewart being one of the league’s best interior defenders, are two elements that can’t be ignored. It feels like being a bottom-third team in 3-point shooting will hurt them, but it hasn’t so far because they’re so good in the clutch (No. 1 in the league) and hellacious on defense.
The Pistons don’t feel the need to tinker with the roster yet, preferring to let the young players jell together more. Even if the Knicks overtake them atop the East, it’s hard to see any other team in the conference doing so. They’re real. – Vincent Goodwill
Could Giannis Antetokounmpo really be traded?
The chasm between the Bucks and championship contention has grown exponentially this season. The Bucks sit in 11th place, 1.5 games back from the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Before the season, Antetokounmpo said one of the goals for the team was to not be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, and as it stands, the Bucks are looking at not even reaching the first round. Antetokounmpo has missed 12 games due to injury, and his supporting cast has gone 2-10 without him.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Dec. 3 that Antetokounmpo and his agent opened discussions with the team about his future. Since then, the Bucks have been in a free fall, which is why all eyes across the NBA are focused on Milwaukee and Antetokounmpo’s future. – Jamal Collier
What is next for the Clippers?
Before the Clippers lost Ivica Zubac to an ankle injury that will sideline him for several weeks the Clippers lost 13 of 15 games. The season has been an absolute disaster and that’s not even accounting for the Aspiration cloud that hovers over the franchise, or the Chris Paul fiasco. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Clippers opting for a full reset. Oklahoma City controls their 2026 first-round pick and swap rights to the 2027 first-round pick, so there’s no incentive to tank.
At the same time, they will be mindful of maintaining future flexibility. For years, the Clippers have been planning to make splashes in the summer of 2027 when Kawhi Leonard’s contract comes off the books. James Harden also has an option for $42 million for the 2026-27 season. Unless Harden sours on L.A. and wants a move to a contending team, the sound prediction is the Clippers will explore options to improve around Leonard and Harden near the deadline and climb into the play-in.
The Clippers will always believe they can make some postseason noise with a healthy Leonard and Harden if they can add more scoring, defense and much-needed younger athletic legs. They have some vets such as Brook Lopez and Bogdan Bogdanovic with reasonable expiring contracts that contain team options to possibly make moves before the deadline. – Ohm Youngmisuk
Projecting the rest of the season
Here’s how ESPN’s Basketball Power Index sees the season playing out:
Projected Standings For West, East
| Proj. Seed | Team | Proj. Record | Proj. Seed | Team | Proj. Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 65-17 | 1 | New York Knicks | 56.1-25.9 |
| 2 | Houston Rockets | 56-26 | 2 | Detroit Pistons | 54.1-27.9 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 55-27 | 3 | Boston Celtics | 50.0-32.0 |
| 4 | San Antonio Spurs | 53-29 | 4 | Orlando Magic | 48.0-34.0 |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48-34 | 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 45.6-36.4 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 47-35 | 6 | Miami Heat | 45.2-36.8 |
| 7* | Golden State Warriors | 45-37 | 7* | Philadelphia 76ers | 44.6-37.4 |
| 8* | Phoenix Suns | 43-39 | 8* | Toronto Raptors | 41.9-40.1 |
| 9* | Memphis Grizzlies | 42-40 | 9* | Atlanta Hawks | 40.1-41.9 |
| 10* | LA Clippers | 36-46 | 10* | Milwaukee Bucks | 36.3-45.7 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Projections as of Dec. 28, *Denotes play-in team |
A close race for the top seed in the East: Detroit is currently up 2.5 games on New York, but the Knicks’ stronger preseason projection means they have a slight edge in this battle. New York earns the top seed in 61% of simulations using BPI, as compared to 33% for the Pistons. Health the rest of the way could shape whether the East playoffs run through Detroit or New York.
The battle for second in the West: Houston is fourth in the standings, but a favorable remaining schedule (easiest among likely West playoff teams, per BPI) and a robust plus-8.8 point differential (third best in the league) mean the Rockets still finish second in 40% of simulations, more than the 35% for the Denver Nuggets. The San Antonio Spurs (20%), currently second, are also very much in the mix.
Top teams in play-in? The Cavaliers and Warriors both won playoff series a year ago, but BPI suggests both could land in the play-in this season. (Golden State was in the play-in a year ago, falling just short of a top-six seed after adding Butler at the trade deadline.) The Warriors finish in the top six in just 37% of simulations, while Cleveland is at 66% – a far cry from last year, when the Cavaliers were battling for the NBA’s best record at this point. – Kevin Pelton
Trade candidates to watch
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Kristaps Porzingis, Atlanta Hawks
The list of candidates is headlined by the two-time MVP Antetokounmpo and the 10-time All-Star Davis. But just because both will be mentioned in trade conversations leading up to the deadline does not mean either will be moved. While the Bucks are on the outside of the playoffs, they are still looking to improve their roster around Antetokounmpo. They have one tradable first-round pick (2031 or 2032) and Myles Turner, Bobby Portis and Kyle Kuzma – three players combining to earn $60 million this season.
Meanwhile, after starting 5-15, the Mavericks are 7-6 and in contention for one of the final play-in spots. Will that success and a possible return of Kyrie Irving put the Davis trade talks on hold? Or will a looming extension this summer – Davis is eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million deal – have the Mavericks still looking to move the big man?
Elsewhere, Kuminga, who signed a two-year, $46.5 million contract in late September, becomes eligible to be traded on Jan. 15. After starting the Warriors’ first 12 games, Kuminga has fallen out of the rotation, not playing in seven of the Warriors’ past eight contests.
In New Orleans, injuries continue to impact Williamson. He is averaging 21.1 points, 2.7 assists and shooting 58.6% from the field in December. The 2019 No. 1 pick and All-Star is on pace to play fewer than 65 games for the sixth time in seven seasons. Due to those injuries, Williamson’s salary in 2026-27 and 2027-28 remains non-guaranteed.
Finally, despite playing only 13 games with Atlanta, Porzingis’ $30.7 million expiring contract is a valuable trade chip. Porzingis is currently out with an illness. – Bobby Marks
Projecting the All-Star rosters
The All-Star Game format has changed again, with three teams featuring eight-man rosters – two of which will be made up of American players, and a third of international selection. Here’s what Zach Kram predicts the rosters will look like for the game, which is Sunday, Feb. 15, in Los Angeles:
Eastern Conference
Write it in pen:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Write it in pencil:
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
Norman Powell is the first man out in the East. There might be room for just one All-Star from the Heat, and Adebayo has a slightly stronger case because of his defensive contributions and Powell’s relative slump in December. Pascal Siakam and Michael Porter Jr. have excelled for bad teams, and OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have looked great, but are the third and fourth options in New York. Orlando is the one team in the East’s top 10 without a player on this All-Star list, because it’s hard to determine who would make sense to represent the Magic: Desmond Bane endured a horrible, prolonged period before finding his footing, and Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have lost production due to injuries.
Western Conference
Write it in pen:
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Write it in pencil:
Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
The West All-Star race is incredibly crowded, leaving many worthy candidates on the outside looking in. Devin Booker is the greatest snub here, as the leader of the West’s most surprising competitor, but his efficiency (thanks largely to a 30.1% 3-point stroke) isn’t up to the level of the other All-Star candidates. Julius Randle is a tough cut as well, and the cases for Lauri Markkanen, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard suffer because their teams are so far behind in the standings.
Per the requirements of the new All-Star format, the current projected rosters include either 15 Americans and nine international players, or 14 Americans and 10 international players, depending on which group gets Towns, who was born in New Jersey but plays for the Dominican national team. That would leave a spot or two open for commissioner Adam Silver to add to the Americans’ All-Star class, which is good news for Booker and Randle. – Kram
Early award race ballots
We asked our insiders to give us their rankings for the major awards:
MVP
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
- Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
At this point, by very slim margins, Jokic takes it. Recently, Jokic’s greatness has been reaffirmed, while Oklahoma City’s blistering pace has tailed off. Jokic is the league leader in win shares per 48 minutes, which has historically been the greatest indicator of the award over the past 40 years. Cunningham has not only taken a leap this season, but he’s easily the best defender among the candidates. Doncic and Brunson have been excellent and should be names to watch as this race nears the finish line. If the Cavaliers weren’t struggling so mightily, we’d be talking about Donovan Mitchell. Same with Tyrese Maxey in Philly. Doesn’t it seem like everyone is holding a place until Victor Wembanyama starts placing his name on the award annually? – Goodwill
Rookie of the Year
- Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
- Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
- Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
The rookie class has adjusted nicely, with a number of players already making real contributions, albeit not all in winning contexts. Flagg has settled in nicely in December, becoming the youngest player in NBA history to score 40 points in a game. His college teammate, Knueppel, is on his heels, becoming the fastest player ever to 100 made 3-pointers and looking like a future cornerstone for the Hornets. Meanwhile, Queen has done all he can to make Pelicans fans forget what it cost to acquire him on draft night.
Plenty of other rookies have had strong moments, including Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe and Jeremiah Fears. How this group evolves over the next few months and beyond should continue to justify all the optimism. Flagg is the headliner, but there’s a lot more regular season to be played here. – Jeremy Woo
Defensive Player of the Year
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
- Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
This will be Wembanyama’s award to lose, presuming health, for years to come. It’s amazing to see how just his presence on the court causes even the best scorers in the game today, such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson, to play differently. However, it’s a realistic possibility Wembanyama won’t meet the 65-game threshold. In that case, Holmgren – as the rim-protecting anchor of one of the best defenses in the league – should be a heavy favorite to claim the honor. – Bontemps
Most Improved Player
- Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
- Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
- Neemias Queta, Boston Celtics
As a matter of personal philosophy, my favorite MIP candidates are already a few seasons into their careers, when it’s more impressive to improve from a set baseline than for second- or third-year players. Johnson and Avdija are the favorites for now, as the two 24-year-olds should both make their first All-Star teams due to massive leaps with more on-ball responsibility than ever before.
Among at least a dozen other reasonable candidates for the final spot on this early ballot, Queta gets the nod because of his importance to an overachieving Celtics squad. In the first extended starting stretch of his career, as a fill-in for the departed Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet, the Celtics have a plus-6.6 net rating with Queta on the court, versus just plus-2.6 without him. – Kram
Early All-NBA ballots
We also asked Kevin Pelton to give us his All-NBA predictions:
First team
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
- Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
- Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Second team
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
- Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
- Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
- Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
- Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Third team
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
- Jimmy Butler III, Golden State Warriors
- Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
- Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
The challenge of doing All-NBA teams before the season’s midpoint is how to handle injuries. Right now, the 12 games Wembanyama has missed because of a calf strain represent nearly a third of the schedule. By season’s end, they could be a footnote – unless Wembanyama misses enough additional games (at least 17 total) to be ineligible for All-NBA, a looming threat for Antetokounmpo as well.
For now, I’ve slotted them as if they’re eligible, but they have played so relatively little time, which bumps Antetokounmpo to the second team and Wembanyama to the third team. Stephen Curry (nine games missed) is in a similar spot in terms of eligibility, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant when healthy and doesn’t earn a spot. Neither does Austin Reaves, who has played at an All-NBA level thus far but will miss an extended period because of a grade 2 calf strain.
Of course, the most notable exception is LeBron James, who has already missed 16 games, meaning he will almost certainly be ineligible to extend his record streak of 21 consecutive All-NBA appearances. – Pelton
Projecting the 2026 NBA draft lottery
Here’s how ESPN’s Basketball Power Index sees the order for the lottery, which will take place in May:
2025-26 NBA BPI Projected Draft
| Proj. pick | Team | Proj. Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Wizards | 18-64 |
| 2 | Indiana Pacers | 21-61 |
| 3 | New Orleans Pelicans (via Atlanta) | 25-57 |
| 4 | Sacramento Kings | 25-57 |
| 5 | Utah Jazz (via Oklahoma City) | 27-55 |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | 28-54 |
| 7 | Charlotte Hornets | 31-51 |
| 8 | Portland Trail Blazers | 33-49 |
| 9 | Dallas Mavericks | 34-48 |
| 10 | Chicago Bulls | 34-48 |
| 11 | LA Clippers (via Oklahoma City) | 36-46 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Bucks | 36-46 |
| 13 | Atlanta Hawks (via San Antonio) | 40-42 |
| 14 | Memphis Grizzlies | 42-40 |
The pronounced race to the bottom that league insiders have anticipated for months has been compounded by just how strong the very top of the 2025 draft class looks. The standings are tightly packed, and all four lottery spots will carry major consequences this season. While ESPN’s No. 1 prospect Darryn Peterson has missed much of the season because of injury, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer have stepped forward as two of the best players in college basketball. Caleb Wilson and Kingston Flemings are among the next group coming on strong. This is a season when losing big comes with extra incentive.
It’s worth noting that the BPI index looks somewhat favorable for the Clippers, predicting a return to the middle of the pack. With that pick currently belonging to Oklahoma City, the rest of the league would likely approve of that scenario. Some improvement is also expected from New Orleans, which will likely convey its pick to Atlanta unprotected.
The ultimate look of the lottery will hang on who has which pick, similar to what we last saw in 2022. Peterson’s absence has left the door wide open for Dybantsa and Boozer, who are each making convincing cases to go No. 1, challenging what had been a soft preseason consensus in favor of the Kansas guard. How that trio fares during conference play will have major implications, but suffice it to say, there will be multiple teams who leave the lottery room grinning in May. – Woo
By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN