By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2025-12-29 20:00:00
NBA的赛场永远不乏看点——本赛季亦是如此。
赛季至今，我们见证了许多令人意外的开局，有好的一面（活塞队，我们看到你了），也有坏的一面（不幸的是，快船队，我们也看到你了）。联盟中还爆出了丑闻（是的，不止一桩），给多支球队蒙上了阴影。一代传奇巨星克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 的职业生涯或许正走向一个不光彩的结局，而我们可能也正在见证勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)——这位可以说是体育史上最伟大的球员——的最后一个赛季。
一路走来，联盟中的明星球员们贡献了无数精彩绝伦的表演，让每个比赛日都充满激动人心的对决。
鉴于此，我们为您精心准备了一份“速读指南”，助您快速了解过去几个月NBA发生的所有大事，并前瞻从现在到明年六月新一届NBA总冠军诞生期间即将上演的精彩剧情。
以下是我们记者和分析师为您梳理的联盟过去、现在和未来的焦点故事，以及您需要知道的一切：
快速跳转至：
前半程回顾 | 核心问题
全明星预测 | 奖项角逐
最佳阵容预测 | 预测排名
乐透观察 | 潜在交易对象
前半程你可能错过的五件事
卫冕冠军携雷霆之势归来，但他们能否实现两连冠？ 2024-25赛季的雷霆队是联盟历史上第二年轻的总冠军队伍，仅次于1977年的开拓者。在那个历史性的赛季之后，雷霆队本赛季以24胜1负的开局和创纪录的净胜分强势开启新征程。就在几周前，他们迈向第二座总冠军奖杯——并终结联盟连续七年无卫冕冠军的局面——似乎已是板上钉钉。
但那是在他们12天内三次对阵维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和马刺队之前——一次是在NBA杯半决赛的拉斯维加斯，一次在圣安东尼奥，还有一次在俄克拉荷马城——结果雷霆队悉数告负。
在圣诞大战中以两位数分差输给马刺后，联盟卫冕MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 表示：“在短时间内连续三次输给同一支球队，那就只能说明他们比你更强。” 我们不会说得这么绝对——这支马刺队还没打过一场季后赛——但在雷霆、马刺、掘金、火箭和森林狼之间，西部季后赛的对决必将异常精彩。
青春风暴席卷联盟： 活塞队，就在两年前还创下了NBA历史连败纪录，如今却以24胜8负的战绩高居东部榜首，这背后是早期MVP候选人凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)（24岁）、冉冉升起的大个子杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)（22岁）以及联盟顶级外线防守者之一的奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson)（22岁）的出色发挥。
火箭队虽然在休赛期引进了老将凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，但年轻球员阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)、阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)、小贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.) 和里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 的持续成长，让火箭队已为季后赛的深入之旅做好了准备。哦，我们提到马刺队至今的表现了吗？
与此同时，本届新秀也带来了立竿见影的影响。库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 在达拉斯的开局非常出色，而圣安东尼奥的迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和费城的VJ·埃吉科姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 也在潜在的季后赛球队中扮演着重要角色。他们并非个例。康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 在夏洛特的表现堪称杰出，而二轮秀莱恩·卡尔克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner) 也可能成为球队首发中锋的长远之选。德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen) 和杰里迈亚·菲尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears) 在鹈鹕队的开局同样令人印象深刻，塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward) 也已证明自己是灰熊队未来的建队基石。对于一届新秀来说，贡献如此之大，尤其是在一月份到来之前，实属罕见。
达拉斯永生难忘的一年： 用“混乱”一词远不足以形容独行侠队过去的12个月，从令人震惊的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 交易，到凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 的前十字韧带撕裂，再到通过选秀乐透抽中状元签得到弗拉格。这场混乱最终导致总经理尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison) 在本赛季开始几周后因开局惨淡以及外界对他将东契奇交易至洛杉矶的持续愤怒而被解雇。
尽管那笔交易永远无法得到合理解释，但独行侠队得到弗拉格，让他们拥有了各支球队梦寐以求的攻防一体的超级巨星。在职业生涯的最初几周，弗拉格就展示了他为何是如此备受瞩目的新星。他屡次打出只有另一位天才少年——勒布朗·詹姆斯——曾经做到过的表现。
快船队的艰难三个月： 这支球队曾被预测为西部前六的种子队，并且将举办2026年全明星赛。然而，无论在场上还是场下，他们都成了头条新闻，但没有一条是正面的。
自九月以来，快船队因与科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的一笔赞助协议有关，一直在接受联盟关于规避工资帽的调查。本月早些时候，球队出人意料地与队魂克里斯·保罗分道扬镳。而这套赛季初全联盟年龄最大的阵容，目前以10胜21负的战绩在积分榜上垫底。
更糟糕的是，洛杉矶快船队那个2026年的无保护首轮签，作为2019年保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 交易的一部分，将送往雷霆队——这笔交易持续为卫冕冠军送上大礼。
联邦调查涉足非法体育博彩和牌局操控： 开拓者队主教练昌西·比卢普斯 (Chauncey Billups)、热火队后卫特里·罗齐尔 (Terry Rozier) 以及前球员达蒙·琼斯 (Damon Jones) 的被起诉震惊了联盟，也让两支球队陷入了混乱。
比卢普斯和罗齐尔已被NBA无限期禁赛。比卢普斯的职位由助理教练、前马刺队中锋蒂亚戈·斯普利特 (Tiago Splitter) 临时接替。从NBA的角度来看，围绕热火队最有趣的问题是：他们是否会因2024年1月为得到罗齐尔而交易出的首轮签获得补偿，以及迈阿密是否会被允许交易他。– 蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)
五大焦点问题
雷霆队对胜场纪录的追逐已经结束了吗？
很可能。两周前，当他们带着16连胜和24胜1负的耀眼战绩闯入拉斯维加斯参加NBA杯时，这个目标看起来还更现实一些——这与当年73胜勇士队前25场比赛的战绩完全相同。但雷霆队在拉斯维加斯输给了马刺，在明尼苏达不敌安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 最后时刻的爆发，随后又被马刺队两次大胜。
因此，他们现在的战绩是27胜5负，这让他们明显落后于破纪录的进度。那支创造纪录的勇士队在常规赛中一路高歌猛进，战绩曾达到36胜2负、37胜3负、48胜4负和55胜5负。雷霆队有能力再打出几波大的连胜，从而对纪录发起冲击，但他们最多只能再输三场比赛。即便是冲击70胜也已成为一项严峻的挑战。他们需要在最后50场比赛中取得43胜7负的战绩。– 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)
这会是勒布朗·詹姆斯的最后一个赛季吗？
看看这些迹象。詹姆斯的合同已进入最后一年。他的挚友兼经纪人，来自Klutch Sports的里奇·保罗 (Rich Paul)，在夏天告诉ESPN，詹姆斯并未向湖人队要求续约。我们也看到詹姆斯在某些时刻流露出珍惜当下的意味——比如本赛季洛杉矶唯一一次客场造访多伦多后，他在社交媒体上表达了对这座城市的热爱；又比如在费城打完比赛后，他诗意地表达了自己将会多么怀念那些充满激情的客场球馆。
詹姆斯也明确表示，他已经准备好让NBA篮球之外的其他事情占据他的时间和兴趣。在过去一周，他说自己没资格评论爵士队后卫基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George) 的全明星前景，因为他在业余时间看了太多的YouTube高尔夫视频。他还表示，在人生的这个阶段，他更愿意待在家里陪伴家人，而不是在圣诞节打比赛。
这可能只是他名人堂生涯的漫长告别序曲，真正的倒计时或许要到他的第24或第25个赛季才会开始。但话又说回来，我们眼前所见的，也可能就是詹姆斯剩余的大约50场常规赛了。– 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)
活塞队是真材实料吗？
一些数据似乎证实了这一点，即便他们如火箭般蹿升的势头会让人有所疑虑。活塞队防守效率高居联盟第二，仅次于俄克拉荷马雷霆，这支持了上述论点。坎宁安跻身MVP候选人前五，加上以赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 是联盟最好的内线防守者之一，这两点不容忽视。感觉上，他们联盟下游的三分球命中率会成为软肋，但至今为止这并未造成影响，因为他们在关键时刻表现极其出色（联盟第一），并且防守极其强悍。
活塞队目前感觉无需对阵容进行调整，他们更倾向于让年轻球员们继续磨合。即使尼克斯队最终超越他们成为东部第一，也很难想象会议中有其他球队能做到这一点。他们是真材实料。– 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博真的可能被交易吗？
雄鹿与冠军争夺者之间的鸿沟在本赛季呈指数级扩大。雄鹿队目前排名第11位，距离东部附加赛区还差1.5个胜场。赛季前，阿德托昆博曾表示，球队的目标之一是不要在季后赛首轮被淘汰，而就目前情况来看，雄鹿队甚至可能连首轮都进不去。阿德托昆博因伤缺席了12场比赛，而他的队友们在他缺阵的情况下战绩为2胜10负。
ESPN的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 在12月3日报道称，阿德托昆博和他的经纪人已就其未来与球队展开讨论。自那以后，雄鹿队一直处于自由落体式下滑，这就是为什么全NBA的目光都聚焦在密尔沃基和阿德托昆博的未来上。– 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)
快船队的下一步是什么？
在伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 因脚踝伤势将缺席数周之前，快船队在15场比赛中输掉了13场。这个赛季简直是一场灾难，这还没算上笼罩在球队上空的Aspiration赞助疑云，以及保罗离队的闹剧。尽管如此，很难想象快船队会选择彻底重建。俄克拉荷马雷霆掌控着他们2026年的首轮签和2027年首轮签的互换权，所以他们没有摆烂的动力。
与此同时，他们也会注意保持未来的灵活性。多年来，快船队一直计划在2027年夏天，当科怀·伦纳德的合同到期后大展拳脚。詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 在2026-27赛季也拥有一个价值4200万美元的球员选项。除非哈登对洛杉矶感到厌倦并希望转投一支争冠球队，否则一个合理的预测是，快船队将在交易截止日前围绕伦纳德和哈登探索补强方案，争取进入附加赛。
快船队始终相信，如果他们能增加更多的得分手、提升防守并补充急需的年轻运动能力，只要伦纳德和哈登保持健康，他们就能在季后赛中掀起一些波澜。他们有一些老将，如布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez) 和博格丹·博格达诺维奇 (Bogdan Bogdanovic)，他们身背合理的、包含球队选项的到期合同，这可能让球队在截止日前有所动作。– 奥姆·扬米苏克 (Ohm Youngmisuk)
赛季剩余部分预测
以下是ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）对本赛季走向的预测：
东西部预测排名
| 预测排名 | 球队 | 预测战绩 | 预测排名 | 球队 | 预测战绩 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 俄克拉荷马雷霆 | 65-17 | 1 | 纽约尼克斯 | 56.1-25.9 |
| 2 | 休斯顿火箭 | 56-26 | 2 | 底特律活塞 | 54.1-27.9 |
| 3 | 丹佛掘金 | 55-27 | 3 | 波士顿凯尔特人 | 50.0-32.0 |
| 4 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 53-29 | 4 | 奥兰多魔术 | 48.0-34.0 |
| 5 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 48-34 | 5 | 克利夫兰骑士 | 45.6-36.4 |
| 6 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 47-35 | 6 | 迈阿密热火 | 45.2-36.8 |
| 7* | 金州勇士 | 45-37 | 7* | 费城76人 | 44.6-37.4 |
| 8* | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 43-39 | 8* | 多伦多猛龙 | 41.9-40.1 |
| 9* | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 42-40 | 9* | 亚特兰大老鹰 | 40.1-41.9 |
| 10* | 洛杉矶快船 | 36-46 | 10* | 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 36.3-45.7 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 截至12月28日的预测，*代表附加赛球队 |
东部头名之争激烈： 底特律目前领先纽约2.5个胜场，但尼克斯队更强的季前预测意味着他们在这场竞争中略占优势。通过BPI模拟，纽约有61%的几率获得头号种子，而活塞队为33%。赛季剩余时间的健康状况可能会决定东部季后赛的主场优势最终归属底特律还是纽约。
西部第二之争： 休斯顿目前排名第四，但有利的剩余赛程（根据BPI，是西部季后赛潜在队伍中最轻松的）和强劲的+8.8净胜分（联盟第三）意味着火箭队在模拟中仍有40%的几率以第二名收官，高于掘金的35%。目前排名第二的马刺队（20%）也同样在竞争之列。
强队或将落入附加赛？ 骑士队和勇士队一年前都赢下了季后赛系列赛，但BPI显示本赛季两队都可能掉入附加赛区。（勇士队一年前就在附加赛区，在交易截止日得到巴特勒后，与前六种子失之交臂。）勇士队在模拟中仅有37%的几率进入前六，而克利夫兰的几率为66%——这与去年同期骑士队还在争夺联盟最佳战绩的情景相去甚远。– 凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton)
值得关注的交易候选人
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)，达拉斯独行侠
乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga)，金州勇士
锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson)，新奥尔良鹈鹕
克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)，亚特兰大老鹰
这份候选人名单由两届MVP阿德托昆博和十届全明星戴维斯领衔。但仅仅因为两人会在交易截止日前被提及，并不意味着他们一定会被交易。虽然雄鹿队目前在季后赛圈外，但他们仍在寻求围绕阿德托昆博补强阵容。他们拥有一个可交易的首轮签（2031年或2032年）以及迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)、博比·波蒂斯 (Bobby Portis) 和凯尔·库兹马 (Kyle Kuzma)——这三名球员本赛季的薪资总和达到6000万美元。
与此同时，在5胜15负的开局后，独行侠队在过去13场比赛中取得了7胜6负的战绩，正在争夺最后几个附加赛名额。这样的成绩以及凯里·欧文的可能回归，是否会暂停关于戴维斯的交易谈判？或者，考虑到今年夏天即将到来的续约——戴维斯有资格签下一份为期四年、价值2.75亿美元的合同——独行侠是否仍会寻求交易这位大个子？
其他方面，九月底签下两年4650万美元合同的库明加，将于1月15日获得被交易的资格。在为勇士队首发了12场比赛后，库明加已经掉出了轮换阵容，在过去八场比赛中有七场没有出场。
在新奥尔良，伤病继续困扰着威廉姆森。他在12月份场均得到21.1分、2.7次助攻，投篮命中率为58.6%。这位2019年的状元秀和全明星球员，有望在七个赛季中第六次出场少于65场。由于这些伤病，威廉姆森在2026-27赛季和2027-28赛季的薪水仍然是非保障的。
最后，尽管只为亚特兰大打了13场比赛，波尔津吉斯价值3070万美元的到期合同是一个宝贵的交易筹码。波尔津吉斯目前因病缺阵。– 鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks)
预测全明星阵容
全明星赛的赛制再次改变，将有三支队伍，每队八人——其中两队由美国球员组成，第三队则由国际球员组成。以下是扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 预测的将于2月15日（周日）在洛杉矶举行的全明星赛阵容：
东部联盟
板上钉钉：
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人
杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯
凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
杰伦·杜伦，底特律活塞
杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，亚特兰大老鹰
泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，费城76人
多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士
卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)，纽约尼克斯
基本入选：
巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)，迈阿密热火
斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙
约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey)，芝加哥公牛
诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 是东部首位遗珠。热火队可能只有一个全明星名额，而阿德巴约凭借其防守贡献以及鲍威尔在12月的相对低迷，入选理由稍强。帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 和小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 在弱队中表现出色，而OG·阿努诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 表现亮眼，但他们只是纽约队的第三和第四选择。奥兰多是东部前十中唯一没有球员入选这份全明星名单的球队，因为很难确定谁能代表魔术队入选：德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 经历了漫长的低迷期才找回状态，而弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和保罗·班切罗 (Paolo Banchero) 的表现则因伤病打了折扣。
西部联盟
板上钉钉：
斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)，金州勇士
卢卡·东契奇，达拉斯独行侠
凯文·杜兰特，休斯顿火箭
安东尼·爱德华兹，明尼苏达森林狼
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马雷霆
尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)，丹佛掘金
阿尔佩伦·申京，休斯顿火箭
维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺
基本入选：
德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者
切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，俄克拉荷马雷霆
贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)，丹佛掘金
奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)，洛杉矶湖人
西部的全明星竞争异常激烈，导致许多有实力的候选人遗憾落选。德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 是这里最大的遗珠，作为西部最具惊喜球队的领袖，但他的效率（很大程度上受30.1%的三分命中率影响）未能达到其他全明星候选人的水平。朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 同样遗憾落选，而劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)、詹姆斯·哈登和科怀·伦纳德的入选前景则因其球队在战绩榜上落后太多而受影响。
根据新的全明星赛制要求，目前预测的阵容包括15名美国球员和9名国际球员，或者14名美国球员和10名国际球员，这取决于唐斯被分到哪一组——他出生于新泽西，但为多米尼加国家队效力。这将为联盟总裁亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 留下一个或两个名额来增补美国队的全明星阵容，这对布克和兰德尔来说是个好消息。– 克拉姆
早期奖项角逐选票
我们邀请了内部专家们为各大奖项进行排名：
MVP
- 尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马雷霆
- 凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
- 卢卡·东契奇，洛杉矶湖人
- 杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯
目前来看，约基奇以微弱优势胜出。最近，约基奇的伟大再次得到印证，而俄克拉荷马雷霆的迅猛势头有所减缓。约基奇在每48分钟胜利贡献值上领跑全联盟，这在过去40年里一直是该奖项最有力的预测指标。坎宁安本赛季不仅实现了飞跃，而且他无疑是候选人中最好的防守者。东契奇和布伦森表现出色，随着竞争进入冲刺阶段，他们将是值得关注的名字。如果骑士队没有如此挣扎，我们现在讨论的可能就是米切尔了。费城的马克西也是同理。似乎每个人都在为文班亚马未来年复一年地将自己的名字刻在这个奖项上而暂时占着位置？– 古德威尔
年度最佳新秀
- 库珀·弗拉格，达拉斯独行侠
- 康·克努佩尔，夏洛特黄蜂
- 德里克·奎恩，新奥尔良鹈鹕
本届新秀班底适应良好，许多球员已经做出了实际贡献，尽管并非都在赢球的环境中。弗拉格在12月份表现稳定，成为NBA历史上单场得到40分的最年轻球员。他的大学队友克努佩尔紧随其后，成为历史上命中100记三分球最快的球员，看起来是黄蜂队未来的基石。与此同时，奎恩已经尽其所能，让鹈鹕球迷忘记了在选秀夜为了得到他付出了什么代价。
许多其他新秀也有高光时刻，包括迪伦·哈珀、VJ·埃吉科姆和杰里迈亚·菲尔斯。这群球员在未来几个月乃至更长时间里的成长，将继续证明外界的乐观是合理的。弗拉格是领跑者，但常规赛还有很长的路要走。– 杰里米·伍 (Jeremy Woo)
年度最佳防守球员
- 维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺
- 切特·霍姆格伦，俄克拉荷马雷霆
- 阿门·汤普森，休斯顿火箭
只要保持健康，这个奖项在未来几年都将是文班亚马的囊中之物，成败只在他自己。令人惊叹的是，仅仅是他在场上的存在，就足以让当今最顶尖的得分手，如谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和杰伦·布伦森，改变他们的打法。然而，文班亚马很有可能无法达到65场的出场门槛。在这种情况下，霍姆格伦——作为联盟顶级防守球队之一的护筐中坚——应该会成为该奖项的热门人选。– 邦坦普斯
进步最快球员
- 杰伦·约翰逊，亚特兰大老鹰
- 德尼·阿夫迪亚，波特兰开拓者
- 内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta)，波士顿凯尔特人
从我个人的理念出发，我最喜欢的进步最快球员候选人是那些已经在联盟打了几个赛季的球员，因为与二、三年级球员相比，从一个固定的基准线上取得进步更令人印象深刻。约翰逊和阿夫迪亚目前是热门人选，这两位24岁的球员都因为承担了比以往更多的持球责任而取得了巨大飞跃，预计都将首次入选全明星。
在这份早期选票的最后一个名额上，至少有十几位合理的候选人，但克塔最终入选，因为他对这支超常发挥的凯尔特人队至关重要。在他职业生涯首次获得长期首发机会，作为顶替离队的艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 的球员，当克塔在场时，凯尔特人的净效率为+6.6，而当他不在场时仅为+2.6。– 克拉姆
早期最佳阵容选票
我们还请凯文·佩尔顿给出了他的NBA最佳阵容预测：
最佳阵容一阵
- 凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞
- 卢卡·东契奇，洛杉矶湖人
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马雷霆
- 尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金
- 多诺万·米切尔，克利夫兰骑士
最佳阵容二阵
- 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，密尔沃基雄鹿
- 杰伦·布朗，波士顿凯尔特人
- 泰瑞斯·马克西，费城76人
- 贾马尔·穆雷，丹佛掘金
- 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯，纽约尼克斯
最佳阵容三阵
- 杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯
- 吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III)，金州勇士
- 安东尼·爱德华兹，明尼苏达森林狼
- 杰伦·约翰逊，亚特兰大老鹰
- 维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺
在赛季中期进行最佳阵容评选的挑战在于如何处理伤病问题。目前，文班亚马因小腿拉伤缺席的12场比赛占了赛程的近三分之一。到赛季末，这可能只是一个注脚——除非文班亚马再缺席足够多的比赛（总计至少17场）以致失去入选最佳阵容的资格，这对阿德托昆博来说也是一个迫在眉睫的威胁。
目前，我将他们视为有资格入选，但他们出场时间相对较少，这使得阿德托昆博降至二阵，文班亚马降至三阵。斯蒂芬·库里（缺席9场）在资格方面情况类似，但他在健康时的统治力稍逊一筹，因此未能入选。奥斯汀·里夫斯也未能入选，他至今为止打出了最佳阵容级别的水平，但将因二级小腿拉伤缺席较长时间。
当然，最引人注目的例外是勒布朗·詹姆斯，他已经缺席了16场比赛，这意味着他几乎肯定没有资格将自己连续21次入选NBA最佳阵容的纪录延续下去。– 佩尔顿
预测2026年NBA选秀乐透
以下是ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）对乐透顺位的预测：
2026年NBA选秀预测乐透顺位
| 预测顺位 | 球队 | 预测战绩 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 华盛顿奇才 | 18-64 |
| 2 | 印第安纳步行者 | 21-61 |
| 3 | 亚特兰大老鹰 (来自鹈鹕) | 25-57 |
| 4 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 25-57 |
| 5 | 犹他爵士 | 27-55 |
| 6 | 布鲁克林篮网 | 28-54 |
| 7 | 夏洛特黄蜂 | 31-51 |
| 8 | 波特兰开拓者 | 33-49 |
| 9 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 34-48 |
| 10 | 芝加哥公牛 | 34-48 |
| 11 | 俄克拉荷马雷霆 (来自快船) | 36-46 |
| 12 | 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 36-46 |
| 13 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 (来自老鹰) | 40-42 |
| 14 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 42-40 |
联盟内部人士几个月来预期的激烈摆烂大战，因2025届选秀顶尖新秀的强大实力而愈演愈烈。目前的战绩榜非常拥挤，本赛季四个乐透席位都将带来重大影响。尽管ESPN排名第一的新星达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson) 因伤缺席了本赛季大部分时间，但AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 和卡梅伦·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 已挺身而出，成为大学篮球界最出色的两位球员。凯莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson) 和金斯顿·弗莱明斯 (Kingston Flemings) 则是紧随其后的下一梯队。在这个赛季，输得越多，回报也越丰厚。
值得注意的是，BPI指数对快船队来说看起来颇为有利，预测他们将重返中游。由于该选秀权目前属于俄克拉荷马雷霆，联盟其他球队可能会乐见其成。新奥尔良鹈鹕的表现预计也将有所改善，他们很可能会将自己的无保护选秀权送给亚特兰大。
乐透抽签的最终面貌将取决于谁拥有哪个签位，类似于我们在2022年看到的情况。彼得森的缺席为迪班萨和布泽尔敞开了大门，他们各自都在为状元之位提出有力的论据，挑战了季前赛对这位堪萨斯大学后卫的普遍看好。这三位球员在分区赛中的表现将产生重大影响，但可以肯定的是，在五月的乐透抽签室里，将会有多支球队笑容满面地离开。– 伍
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2025-26 NBA season: What you missed, biggest storylines to watch
2025-26 NBA season: What you missed, biggest storylines to watch
The NBA is never boring – and this season is no different.
There have been surprising starts, both in good (we see you, Pistons) and bad (unfortunately, we see you, too, Clippers) ways. There have been scandals (yes, plural) that have cast a shadow over multiple franchises. There has been one ignominious ending (maybe) for an all-time great in Chris Paul, and we could potentially be seeing the last season of LeBron James, arguably the greatest player in the history of the sport.
Along the way, there have been plenty of remarkable performances by the league’s stars, leading to fun action on a nightly basis.
With all of that in mind, we created a cheat sheet to get you caught up on everything that has happened across the NBA over the past few months – and everything that is set to happen between now and June, when the next NBA champion will be crowned.
Here’s a look at the past, present and future stories across the league, and everything our reporters and analysts think you need to know:
Jump to:
What you missed so far | Biggest questions
All-Star projections | Award races
All-NBA ballots | Projected standings
Lottery watch | Trade candidates
Five things you might’ve missed so far
The champs are back with a vengeance, but can they go back-to-back? The 2024-25 Thunder were the second-youngest championship team in league history, behind the 1977 Trail Blazers. The Thunder followed that historic season with a 24-1 start to this campaign and a record-setting point differential. Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like their march to a second title – and snapping a seven-year stretch without a repeat champion – was inevitable.
But that was before three matchups with Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in a 12-day span – one in Las Vegas in the NBA Cup semifinals, one in San Antonio and one in Oklahoma City – ended in OKC defeats.
After a double-digit loss to the Spurs on Christmas, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league’s reigning MVP, said: “You don’t lose to a team three times in a row in a short span without them being better than you.” We won’t go quite that far – these Spurs have yet to play a playoff game – but between the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets and Timberwolves, the Western Conference playoffs should be tremendous.
Youth is being served across the league: The Pistons, just two years after setting the NBA’s record for consecutive losses, are atop the Eastern Conference with a 24-8 record behind early MVP contender Cade Cunningham (24 years old), rising big man Jalen Duren (22) and Ausar Thompson (22), one of the league’s premier perimeter defenders.
While the Rockets added veteran Kevin Durant this offseason, continued growth from youngsters Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard have the Rockets primed for a deep playoff run. And did we mention what the Spurs have done so far?
Meanwhile, the rookie class has had an instant impact. Cooper Flagg is off to a terrific start in Dallas, and Dylan Harper in San Antonio and VJ Edgecombe in Philadelphia are playing significant roles for potential playoff teams. They aren’t alone. Kon Knueppel has been outstanding in Charlotte, where second-rounder Ryan Kalkbrenner also might be a long-term option to start at center. Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears are off to impressive starts for the Pelicans, too, and Cedric Coward has established himself as a future building block for the Grizzlies. That’s a lot of impact from one rookie class, particularly before the calendar flips to January.
The year will never be forgotten in Dallas: Chaotic doesn’t begin to describe these past 12 months for the Mavericks, from the stunning Luka Doncic trade to Kyrie Irving tearing an ACL to landing Flagg via the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery. The chaos ultimately led to general manager Nico Harrison’s dismissal a few weeks into this season after a dismal start and ongoing anger toward him for trading Doncic to Los Angeles.
But while that trade will never have a good explanation, the Mavericks landing Flagg presented them with the two-way superstar teams dream of acquiring. In the first few weeks of his pro career, Flagg showed why he was such a coveted prospect. He has repeatedly done things that only one other touted teenager, LeBron James, has ever done.
A rough three months for the Clippers: The franchise was projected as a top-six seed in the Western Conference with the 2026 All-Star Game headed its way. It has made headlines on and off the court, however, and none has been positive.
Since September, the Clippers have been under investigation for salary cap circumvention relating to a sponsorship deal with Kawhi Leonard. Earlier this month, the team shockingly parted ways with franchise icon Chris Paul. And the roster, the oldest in the NBA entering the season, is near the bottom of the standings at 10-21.
To make matters even worse, LA’s unprotected 2026 first-round pick is headed to the Thunder as part of the 2019 Paul George trade – the gift that keeps on giving for the defending champs.
Federal investigations into illegal sports betting and rigged poker games: The indictments of Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, Heat guard Terry Rozier and former player Damon Jones rocked the league and have left both organizations scrambling.
Billups and Rozier were placed on indefinite leave by the NBA. Billups has been replaced on an interim basis by assistant coach and former Spurs center Tiago Splitter. From an NBA perspective, the most interesting questions surrounding the Heat are whether they will get compensation for the first-round pick traded to acquire Rozier in January 2024 and whether Miami will be allowed to trade him. – Tim Bontemps
Five big questions
Is the Thunder’s chase for the wins record already over?
Probably. It seemed more reasonable two weeks ago when they stormed into Las Vegas for the NBA Cup on a 16-game win streak with a sparkling 24-1 record, the exact mark that the 73-win Warriors had through 25 games. But the Thunder lost to the Spurs in Vegas, succumbed to a late Anthony Edwards-led surge in Minnesota and then were blown out two more times by the Spurs.
So they’re 27-5, putting them notably behind pace for the record. Those record-breaking Warriors were 36-2, 37-3, 48-4 and 55-5 as they rolled through the regular season. The Thunder are capable of rattling off a few more major win streaks to threaten an outside shot at the record, but they can afford only three more losses. Even reaching 70 wins has become a stiff challenge. They’d have to go 43-7 in the final 50 games. – Anthony Slater
Could this be LeBron James’ final season?
Just look at the clues. James is in the final year of his contract. His longtime friend and agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, told ESPN over the summer that James didn’t ask for an extension with the Lakers. We’ve also seen James stop to smell the roses in some instances – like when he posted love for the city of Toronto after L.A.'s lone trip there this season, and when he waxed poetic about how much he will miss electric road arenas after the Lakers played in Philadelphia.
James has also let it be known how much he is ready for other things to occupy his time and interests besides NBA basketball. In the past week, he said he isn’t qualified to speak about Jazz guard Keyonte George’s All-Star credentials because he is watching too much YouTube golf in his spare time. He also said at this point in his life, he is ready to be home with his family rather than playing on Christmas Day.
This could just be the extended wind-down to a Hall of Fame career and the countdown will really begin in his 24th or 25th season. Then again, we could also be looking ahead at the last 50 or so regular-season games that James has left in him. – Dave McMenamin
Are the Pistons for real?
Some of the numbers suggest so, even if the rocket-like trajectory can give one pause. The Pistons ranking second in defense, trailing only Oklahoma City, would support that theory. Cunningham being a top-five MVP candidate, along with Isaiah Stewart being one of the league’s best interior defenders, are two elements that can’t be ignored. It feels like being a bottom-third team in 3-point shooting will hurt them, but it hasn’t so far because they’re so good in the clutch (No. 1 in the league) and hellacious on defense.
The Pistons don’t feel the need to tinker with the roster yet, preferring to let the young players jell together more. Even if the Knicks overtake them atop the East, it’s hard to see any other team in the conference doing so. They’re real. – Vincent Goodwill
Could Giannis Antetokounmpo really be traded?
The chasm between the Bucks and championship contention has grown exponentially this season. The Bucks sit in 11th place, 1½ games back from the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Before the season, Antetokounmpo said one of the goals for the team was to not be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, and as it stands, the Bucks are looking at not even reaching the first round. Antetokounmpo has missed 12 games due to injury, and his supporting cast has gone 2-10 without him.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Dec. 3 that Antetokounmpo and his agent opened discussions with the team about his future. Since then, the Bucks have been in a free fall, which is why all eyes across the NBA are focused on Milwaukee and Antetokounmpo’s future. – Jamal Collier
What is next for the Clippers?
Before the Clippers lost Ivica Zubac to an ankle injury that will sideline him for several weeks the Clippers lost 13 of 15 games. The season has been an absolute disaster and that’s not even accounting for the Aspiration cloud that hovers over the franchise, or the Paul fiasco. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Clippers opting for a full reset. Oklahoma City controls their 2026 first-round pick and swap rights to the 2027 first-round pick, so there’s no incentive to tank.
At the same time, they will be mindful of maintaining future flexibility. For years, the Clippers have been planning to make splashes in the summer of 2027 when Kawhi Leonard’s contract comes off the books. James Harden also has an option for $42 million for the 2026-27 season. Unless Harden sours on L.A. and wants a move to a contending team, the sound prediction is the Clippers will explore options to improve around Leonard and Harden near the deadline and climb into the play-in.
The Clippers will always believe they can make some postseason noise with a healthy Leonard and Harden if they can add more scoring, defense and much-needed younger athletic legs. They have some vets such as Brook Lopez and Bogdan Bogdanovic with reasonable expiring contracts that contain team options to possibly make moves before the deadline. – Ohm Youngmisuk
Projecting the rest of the season
Here’s how ESPN’s Basketball Power Index sees the season playing out:
Projected Standings For West, East
| Proj. Seed | Team | Proj. Record | Proj. Seed | Team | Proj. Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 65-17 | 1 | New York Knicks | 56.1-25.9 |
| 2 | Houston Rockets | 56-26 | 2 | Detroit Pistons | 54.1-27.9 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 55-27 | 3 | Boston Celtics | 50.0-32.0 |
| 4 | San Antonio Spurs | 53-29 | 4 | Orlando Magic | 48.0-34.0 |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48-34 | 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 45.6-36.4 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 47-35 | 6 | Miami Heat | 45.2-36.8 |
| 7* | Golden State Warriors | 45-37 | 7* | Philadelphia 76ers | 44.6-37.4 |
| 8* | Phoenix Suns | 43-39 | 8* | Toronto Raptors | 41.9-40.1 |
| 9* | Memphis Grizzlies | 42-40 | 9* | Atlanta Hawks | 40.1-41.9 |
| 10* | LA Clippers | 36-46 | 10* | Milwaukee Bucks | 36.3-45.7 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Projections as of Dec. 28, *Denotes play-in team |
A close race for the top seed in the East: Detroit is currently up 2½ games on New York, but the Knicks’ stronger preseason projection means they have a slight edge in this battle. New York earns the top seed in 61% of simulations using BPI, as compared to 33% for the Pistons. Health the rest of the way could shape whether the East playoffs run through Detroit or New York.
The battle for second in the West: Houston is fourth in the standings, but a favorable remaining schedule (easiest among likely West playoff teams, per BPI) and a robust plus-8.8 point differential (third best in the league) mean the Rockets still finish second in 40% of simulations, more than the 35% for the Nuggets. The Spurs (20%), currently second, are also very much in the mix.
Top teams in play-in? The Cavaliers and Warriors both won playoff series a year ago, but BPI suggests both could land in the play-in this season. (Golden State was in the play-in a year ago, falling just short of a top-six seed after adding Butler at the trade deadline.) The Warriors finish in the top six in just 37% of simulations, while Cleveland is at 66% – a far cry from last year, when the Cavaliers were battling for the NBA’s best record at this point. – Kevin Pelton
Trade candidates to watch
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Kristaps Porzingis, Atlanta Hawks
The list of candidates is headlined by the two-time MVP Antetokounmpo and the 10-time All-Star Davis. But just because both will be mentioned in trade conversations leading up to the deadline does not mean either will be moved. While the Bucks are on the outside of the playoffs, they are still looking to improve their roster around Antetokounmpo. They have one tradable first-round pick (2031 or 2032) and Myles Turner, Bobby Portis and Kyle Kuzma – three players combining to earn $60 million this season.
Meanwhile, after starting 5-15, the Mavericks have gone 7-6 in their past 13 and are in contention for one of the final play-in spots. Will that success and a possible return of Kyrie Irving put the Davis trade talks on hold? Or will a looming extension this summer – Davis is eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million deal – have the Mavericks still looking to move the big man?
Elsewhere, Kuminga, who signed a two-year, $46.5 million contract in late September, becomes eligible to be traded on Jan. 15. After starting the Warriors’ first 12 games, Kuminga has fallen out of the rotation, not playing in seven of the Warriors’ past eight contests.
In New Orleans, injuries continue to impact Williamson. He is averaging 21.1 points, 2.7 assists and shooting 58.6% from the field in December. The 2019 No. 1 pick and All-Star is on pace to play fewer than 65 games for the sixth time in seven seasons. Due to those injuries, Williamson’s salary in 2026-27 and 2027-28 remains non-guaranteed.
Finally, despite playing only 13 games with Atlanta, Porzingis’ $30.7 million expiring contract is a valuable trade chip. Porzingis is currently out with an illness. – Bobby Marks
Projecting the All-Star rosters
The All-Star Game format has changed again, with three teams featuring eight-man rosters – two of which will be made up of American players, and a third of international selections. Here’s what Zach Kram predicts the rosters will look like for the game, which is Sunday, Feb. 15, in Los Angeles:
Eastern Conference
Write it in pen:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Write it in pencil:
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
Norman Powell is the first man out in the East. There might be room for just one All-Star from the Heat, and Adebayo has a slightly stronger case because of his defensive contributions and Powell’s relative slump in December. Pascal Siakam and Michael Porter Jr. have excelled for bad teams, and OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have looked great, but are the third and fourth options in New York. Orlando is the one team in the East’s top 10 without a player on this All-Star list, because it’s hard to determine who would make sense to represent the Magic: Desmond Bane endured a horrible, prolonged period before finding his footing, and Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have lost production due to injuries.
Western Conference
Write it in pen:
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Write it in pencil:
Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
The West All-Star race is incredibly crowded, leaving many worthy candidates on the outside looking in. Devin Booker is the greatest snub here, as the leader of the West’s most surprising competitor, but his efficiency (thanks largely to a 30.1% 3-point stroke) isn’t up to the level of the other All-Star candidates. Julius Randle is a tough cut as well, and the cases for Lauri Markkanen, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard suffer because their teams are so far behind in the standings.
Per the requirements of the new All-Star format, the current projected rosters include either 15 Americans and nine international players, or 14 Americans and 10 international players, depending on which group gets Towns, who was born in New Jersey but plays for the Dominican national team. That would leave a spot or two open for commissioner Adam Silver to add to the Americans’ All-Star class, which is good news for Booker and Randle. – Kram
Early award race ballots
We asked our insiders to give us their rankings for the major awards:
MVP
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
- Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
At this point, by very slim margins, Jokic takes it. Recently, Jokic’s greatness has been reaffirmed, while Oklahoma City’s blistering pace has tailed off. Jokic is the league leader in win shares per 48 minutes, which has historically been the greatest indicator of the award over the past 40 years. Cunningham has not only taken a leap this season, but he’s easily the best defender among the candidates. Doncic and Brunson have been excellent and should be names to watch as this race nears the finish line. If the Cavaliers weren’t struggling so mightily, we’d be talking about Mitchell. Same with Maxey in Philly. Doesn’t it seem like everyone is holding a place until Wembanyama starts placing his name on the award annually? – Goodwill
Rookie of the Year
- Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
- Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
- Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
The rookie class has adjusted nicely, with a number of players are already making real contributions, albeit not all in winning contexts. Flagg has settled in nicely in December, becoming the youngest player in NBA history to score 40 points in a game. His college teammate, Knueppel, is on his heels, becoming the fastest player ever to 100 made 3-pointers and looking like a future cornerstone for the Hornets. Meanwhile, Queen has done all he can to make Pelicans fans forget what it cost to acquire him on draft night.
Plenty of other rookies have had strong moments, including Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe and Jeremiah Fears. How this group evolves over the next few months and beyond should continue to justify all the optimism. Flagg is the headliner, but there’s a lot more regular season to be played here. – Jeremy Woo
Defensive Player of the Year
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
- Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
This will be Wembanyama’s award to lose, presuming health, for years to come. It’s amazing to see how just his presence on the court causes even the best scorers in the game today, such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson, to play differently. However, it’s a realistic possibility Wembanyama won’t meet the 65-game threshold. In that case, Holmgren – as the rim-protecting anchor of one of the best defenses in the league – should be a heavy favorite to claim the honor. – Bontemps
Most Improved Player
- Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
- Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
- Neemias Queta, Boston Celtics
As a matter of personal philosophy, my favorite MIP candidates are already a few seasons into their careers, when it’s more impressive to improve from a set baseline than for second- or third-year players. Johnson and Avdija are the favorites for now, as the two 24-year-olds should both make their first All-Star teams due to massive leaps with more on-ball responsibility than ever before.
Among at least a dozen other reasonable candidates for the final spot on this early ballot, Queta gets the nod because of his importance to an overachieving Celtics squad. In the first extended starting stretch of his career, as a fill-in for the departed Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet, the Celtics have a plus-6.6 net rating with Queta on the court, versus just plus-2.6 without him. – Kram
Early All-NBA ballots
We also asked Kevin Pelton to give us his All-NBA predictions:
First team
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
- Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
- Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Second team
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
- Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
- Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
- Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
- Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Third team
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
- Jimmy Butler III, Golden State Warriors
- Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
- Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
The challenge of doing All-NBA teams before the season’s midpoint is how to handle injuries. Right now, the 12 games Wembanyama has missed because of a calf strain represent nearly a third of the schedule. By season’s end, they could be a footnote – unless Wembanyama misses enough additional games (at least 17 total) to be ineligible for All-NBA, a looming threat for Antetokounmpo as well.
For now, I’ve slotted them as if they’re eligible, but they have played so relatively little time, which bumps Antetokounmpo to the second team and Wembanyama to the third team. Stephen Curry (nine games missed) is in a similar spot in terms of eligibility, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant when healthy and doesn’t earn a spot. Neither does Austin Reaves, who has played at an All-NBA level thus far but will miss an extended period because of a Grade 2 calf strain.
Of course, the most notable exception is LeBron James, who has already missed 16 games, meaning he will almost certainly be ineligible to extend his record streak of 21 consecutive All-NBA appearances. – Pelton
Projecting the 2026 NBA draft lottery
Here’s how ESPN’s Basketball Power Index sees the order for the lottery, which will take place in May:
Projected Lottery Order For 2026 NBA Draft
| Projected Pick | Team | Projected Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Wizards | 18-64 |
| 2 | Indiana Pacers | 21-61 |
| 3 | Atlanta Hawks (via NOP) | 25-57 |
| 4 | Sacramento Kings | 25-57 |
| 5 | Utah Jazz | 27-55 |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | 28-54 |
| 7 | Charlotte Hornets | 31-51 |
| 8 | Portland Trail Blazers | 33-49 |
| 9 | Dallas Mavericks | 34-48 |
| 10 | Chicago Bulls | 34-48 |
| 11 | Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC) | 36-46 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Bucks | 36-46 |
| 13 | San Antonio Spurs (via ATL) | 40-42 |
| 14 | Memphis Grizzlies | 42-40 |
The pronounced race to the bottom that league insiders have anticipated for months has been compounded by just how strong the very top of the 2025 draft class looks. The standings are tightly packed, and all four lottery spots will carry major consequences this season. While ESPN’s No. 1 prospect Darryn Peterson has missed much of the season because of injury, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer have stepped forward as two of the best players in college basketball. Caleb Wilson and Kingston Flemings are among the next group coming on strong. This is a season when losing big comes with extra incentive.
It’s worth noting that the BPI index looks somewhat favorable for the Clippers, predicting a return to the middle of the pack. With that pick currently belonging to Oklahoma City, the rest of the league would likely approve of that scenario. Some improvement is also expected from New Orleans, which will likely convey its pick to Atlanta unprotected.
The ultimate look of the lottery will hang on who has which pick, similar to what we last saw in 2022. Peterson’s absence has left the door wide open for Dybantsa and Boozer, who are each making convincing cases to go No. 1, challenging what had been a soft preseason consensus in favor of the Kansas guard. How that trio fares during conference play will have major implications, but suffice it to say, there will be multiple teams that leave the lottery room grinning in May. – Woo
By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN