By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2026-02-18 20:00:00
NBA 交易截止日和全明星盛典已成过去，常规赛还剩下最后两个月，数个引人入胜的剧情仍在不断展开。
我们的 NBA 内部专家专门为您整理了一份观赛指南，涵盖了赛季末的最大悬念、最值得关注的比赛以及不容错过的奖项评选。
随着季后赛版图在未来几周逐渐清晰，哪支球队将成为卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的最大挑战者？我们是否会再次看到尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 与谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 展开常规赛 MVP 的正面对决，还是会有黑马候选人爆冷夺魁？
此外，请查阅我们的内部专家对联盟垫底球队“抽签大战”的看法，NBA 乐透抽签定于 5 月 10 日举行。
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核心悬念 | 焦点比赛
奖项预测 | 选秀观察
季后赛预测
剩余赛季的核心悬念
季后赛中谁对雷霆的威胁最大？
这取决于丹佛掘金队的健康状况，他们在上赛季西部半决赛中曾将雷霆拖入七场大战。和俄克拉荷马城一样，丹佛本赛季也饱受伤病困扰，但掘金重新洗牌的管理层为约基奇打造了职业生涯最出色的配角阵容——前提是所有关键成员在季后赛时都能披挂上阵。
“胡狼 (The Jackals)”球迷团和圣安东尼奥马刺队的其他粉丝有权对没能入选此项感到不满，尤其是考虑到维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和他的队友们本赛季对阵雷霆取得了 4 胜 1 负的战绩，其中包括 12 月份在雷霆阵容相对健康的情况下，12 天内三次击败对手。但马刺这支队伍缺乏季后赛经验，这让人怀疑他们是否有能力杀出残酷的西部重围。 —— Tim MacMahon
谁是东部的黑马？
考虑到克利夫兰骑士队的赔率已稳居榜首，很难说他们是黑马。所以假设骑士不算在内，尤其是詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 的加盟让人们兴奋不已。波士顿凯尔特人队感觉像是最大的变数——甚至比费城 76 人队还要大。在缺少杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的情况下，他们依然排在东部第二，后者正因去年季后赛遭遇的跟腱伤势缺阵。如果塔图姆回归（这看起来很有可能），将使本就竞争激烈的东部格局更加扑朔迷离。
很难预测塔图姆能否轻松适应高强度的对抗，但凯尔特人的三分火力极其凶猛，在杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)（场均 29.3 分、6.9 个篮板、4.7 次助攻）的带领下，他们的进攻效率高居联盟第二，因此他们可能不需要塔图姆达到巅峰状态。只要塔图姆能提供正面价值的防守、篮板和定点投篮，看到波士顿闯过两轮季后赛并非天方夜谭。 —— Vincent Goodwill
哪些球员的激励条款值得关注？
值得关注的一位球员是锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson)，他有望在六个赛季中仅第三次出场至少 41 场。对于威廉姆森和新奥尔良鹈鹕队来说，这是一个重要的衡量标准。他在 2022 年签署的五年 1.972 亿美元续约合同中包含了关于出场场次和体重的条款，如果未达标，可能会降低他未来赛季的薪水保障。（例如，由于威廉姆森在 2024-25 赛季缺席超过 22 场，他 2026-27 赛季 4220 万美元的薪水目前是非保障的。）
这份续约合同规定，如果满足以下四个条件，威廉姆森下赛季的薪水可以变成部分或全额保障：
- 出场超过 41 场（保障 16,866,604 美元）
- 出场超过 51 场（保障 8,433,302 美元）
- 出场超过 61 场（保障 8,433,302 美元）
- 体重标准（保障 8,433,302 美元）
本赛季已经打了 40 场比赛的威廉姆森，将在周五鹈鹕主场对阵密尔沃基雄鹿队时，看到他的薪水保障金额从 0 增加到 16,866,604 美元。同时，只要威廉姆森没被裁掉，他的薪水将在 7 月 15 日变为全额保障。 —— Bobby Marks
我们正在见证勒布朗·詹姆斯在洛杉矶湖人的最后几个月吗？
勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的未来从未像现在这样扑朔迷离，这位 41 岁的球星多次表示，他不确定是打算下赛季继续征战（他将在今夏成为自由球员）还是选择退役。
据 ESPN 消息人士透露，如果詹姆斯想打第 24 个赛季，洛杉矶会欢迎他回归。
湖人篮球运营总裁兼总经理罗伯·佩林卡 (Rob Pelinka) 在本赛季开始前表示，他非常希望詹姆斯作为一名湖人球员退役。消息人士告诉 ESPN，这种态度反映出，如果詹姆斯打算延长职业生涯，他可以在 2026 年或 2027 年退役。
如果詹姆斯回归，他的薪水将成为决定洛杉矶能围绕他构建何种球队的关键因素。
詹姆斯本赛季的薪水为 5260 万美元。尽管他在与湖人签署的上一份合同中接受了比顶薪低 270 万美元的降薪，但如果今年夏天为了与湖人续约而大幅降薪，那将与他职业生涯一贯的谈判方式大相径庭。 —— Dave McMenamin
剩余常规赛最大的剧情线是 _____？
摆烂大战。虽然东西部顶部的排名会有所变动，但季后赛参与者和边缘竞争球队基本已经定型。这种紧张感会在 4 月中旬达到顶峰，但在此期间，人们将用放大镜观察那些为了在 5 月乐透抽签中多拿几个乒乓球而进行的垫底竞赛和不计后果的策略。
此外，还有今年选秀大会的顶级热门人选。达伦·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)、AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa)、卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 和凯莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson)（以及许多其他乐透热门）所在的大学球队都应该会在 3 月份大显身手。正在考察下一代超级巨星的 NBA 球迷们将会格外关注。 —— Anthony Slater
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和密尔沃基雄鹿队的关系走到了哪一步？雄鹿队将努力挽救这段长达 13 个赛季的婚姻，但目前尚不清楚在阿德托昆博的未来（再次）成为今夏最大话题之前，他们还能做些什么。雄鹿队以 23 胜 30 负的战绩进入全明星假期，位列东部第 12 位。
阿德托昆博自 1 月 23 日以来因右小腿拉伤一直缺阵，但他预计将在未来几周回归，努力带领密尔沃基冲击季后赛。他会成功吗？雄鹿会从争夺季后赛席位转向争取更好的选秀顺位吗？或者我们正在见证阿德托昆博在密尔沃基的最后几个月？ —— Jamal Collier
骑士队在过去 11 场比赛中赢了 10 场——并在这波势头的末尾引进了哈登，以替代经常受伤的达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland)。这从财务和竞技层面都发出了一个信号：骑士队现在就要毕其功于一战。
过去两年季后赛的失利依然历历在目，因此他们做出了重大改变，尽管哈登有过季后赛表现挣扎的历史，但仍在他身上下了重注。他们目前排名东部第 4，距离第 2 名仅差 1.5 场，这使他们很可能在次轮遭遇纽约尼克斯队或凯尔特人队。
我们知道可以对多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 抱有怎样的期待，他正悄无声息地打出生涯最佳赛季。如果他和哈登能在最后两个月找到默契，他们就能把球队带到东部第二的位置，从而再次拔高季后赛预期。这一次他们准备得更充分了吗，还是重蹈覆辙？ —— Goodwill
冲冠行列的焦点对决
克利夫兰骑士队 vs 底特律活塞队（2 月 27 日，美国东部时间晚 7 点，ESPN）
哈登在骑士的开局非常梦幻——他们在进入全明星赛前取得了三连胜——但现在还为时过早。全明星周末后，骑士有几场极具看点的比赛，包括与东部领头羊活塞的对决，目前活塞在积分榜上领先他们 7 场。
波士顿凯尔特人队 vs 纽约尼克斯队（4 月 9 日，晚 7:30）
到了这个赛程阶段，塔图姆很有可能已经归队，上周他已经参加了凯尔特人下属 G 联赛球队的对抗训练。由于这两支球队目前在积分榜上仅相差半个胜场，在常规赛收官阶段，他们将为东部前四的种子顺位展开肉搏。这场比赛很可能直接决定座次。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 vs 丹佛掘金队（4 月 10 日，晚 9 点）
假设亚历山大和约基奇届时都有资格竞逐赛季末奖项，那么这场常规赛最后一个周五的对决，不仅可能是西部决赛的预演，也将是 MVP 之争的最后陈词。正如 MacMahon 所指出的，健康的掘金是本赛季雷霆卫冕道路上的最大劲敌。
垫底军团的焦点对决
孟菲斯灰熊队 vs 犹他爵士队（2 月 20 日，晚 7 点）
犹他爵士上周因操纵阵容被处以 50 万美元罚款，全明星赛后他们将面对另一支铁了心摆烂的球队——灰熊。这将是两支球队在交易截止日前送走贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 后的首次交手——讽刺的是，那次交易似乎也是为了帮助灰熊在摆烂大战中更进一步。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队 vs 萨克拉门托国王队（4 月 3 日，晚 10 点）
这两支球队在赛季开始时并没有摆烂的打算，但现在已深陷积分榜底部的混战。鹈鹕处境尴尬是因为表现不佳，而且他们今年并不拥有自己的首轮签。与此同时，国王队可能在常规赛还剩两个多月时就锁定乐透前三的席位。
华盛顿奇才队 vs 布鲁克林篮网队（4 月 5 日，下午 3:30）
周日下午在布鲁克林进行的这场比赛，将见证两支整个赛季都在为乐透顺位而战的球队在常规赛最后一周展开对决。随着赛季末季后赛席位的尘埃落定，这场比赛对于决定联盟底层球队的最终排名可能具有重大意义。
—— Tim Bontemps
MVP、最佳新秀及更多！奖项争夺战观察
常规赛最有价值球员 (MVP)
领跑者： 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
凭借其卓越的个人数据（场均 32 分，真实命中率 67%）以及对西部第一球队的重要性，亚历山大是蝉联 MVP 的热门人选。当亚历山大在场时，俄克拉荷马城每 100 回合得到 121.6 分，而当他不在场时，这一数字降至 110.0 分。这一差距相当于联盟第一的掘金与第 29 名奇才之间的差距。
竞争中： 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)
紧随亚历山大之后的是去年的第二名。约基奇场均篮板（12.3 个）和助攻（10.7 次）均领跑联盟，并有望刷新单赛季球员效率值（PER）和正负值（BPM）的纪录。出场时间的不足——约基奇已经缺席了 16 场比赛——是这位三届 MVP 唯一的软肋。排在亚历山大和约基奇之后的边缘竞争者包括凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 和杰伦·布朗，他们带领着东部顶级球队，但在个人数据上还无法与这两位最近的 MVP 得主相提并论。
年度最佳新秀 (ROY)
领跑者： 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)
这位状元秀是该奖项的热门。虽然开局阶段因位置不匹配表现慢热，但全明星赛前他已交出场均 20.4 分、6.6 个篮板和 4.1 次助攻的答卷。尽管本月初遭受了足部扭伤，但弗拉格仍在上升期：在全明星赛前的最后六场比赛中，他场均爆发砍下 32 分，命中率高达 53%。
竞争中： 康·库内佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)
如果弗拉格在最后阶段掉链子，4 号秀库内佩尔完全有反超的机会。他正以历史性的效率场均砍下 18.9 分。库内佩尔场均以 43% 的命中率投进 3.4 个三分球，有望打破新秀纪录，并且他是一支有望冲击东部季后赛席位球队的核心成员。
年度最佳教练 (COY)
领跑者： J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)
最佳教练的竞争总是非常激烈，有很多合理的候选人——但如果底特律活塞队以全联盟最高的胜率结束赛季（目前全明星赛前他们确实排名第一），那么去年获得第二名的比克斯塔夫将锁定胜局。
竞争中： 许多球队表现超出预期的年轻教练也在竞争行列，主要是菲尼克斯的乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)、圣安东尼奥的米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 以及波士顿的乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla)。马祖拉在球队失去上赛季五名轮换球员的情况下，依然带领波士顿在东部保持竞争力。
进步最快球员 (MIP)
领跑者： 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 和 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)
这个奖项看起来像是两位首次入选全明星的球员之间的平手。阿夫迪亚场均贡献 25.2 分、7.2 个篮板和 6.6 次助攻，而约翰逊则是 23.3 分、10.6 个篮板和 8.2 次助攻——且开拓者与老鹰在战绩上仅差 1 场，净胜分效率仅差 0.7 分。只要两人保持健康，这场竞赛将持续到最后一刻。
竞争中： 一如既往，进步最快球员的竞争者比其他任何奖项都多。今年的候选名单还包括：为东部领头羊活塞镇守禁区的杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)；凭借一己之力加速犹他竞争进程的基扬特·乔治 (Keyonte George)；在波特兰和丹佛展现新技能的狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 和迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.)；从双向合同球员成长为正儿八经 NBA 首发的莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins)，以及联盟中众多的突破型球员。
年度最佳防守球员 (DPOY)
领跑者： 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)
只要文班亚马能达到 65 场的最低参赛门槛，他就是夺得该奖项的头号热门。文班亚马场均贡献联盟最高的 2.7 次盖帽和 1.0 次抢断，没有其他球员能像这位马刺中锋一样左右对手的进攻策略。他最大的障碍是评奖资格，因为他已经缺席了 14 场比赛，只剩下 3 场的额度。
竞争中： 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)
如果文班亚马的出场数不足 65 场，竞争格局将完全开放。霍姆格伦可能是那种情况下的首选，他是 NBA 最佳防守球队中最突出的个体。他让对手在篮下的命中率仅为 47%，是联盟第二低的数据。（只有目前被禁赛的以赛亚·斯图尔特更严密，为 43%。）斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 和阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 的全能性也值得考虑。此外，鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 依然是 DPOY 的常客，他正悄悄打出又一个令人印象深刻的赛季。
哪些球员已经失去了评奖资格？
由于无法达到 65 场的最低要求，多位球星已无缘赛季末奖项，包括扬尼斯·阿德托昆博、勒布朗·詹姆斯、乔尔·恩比德、安东尼·戴维斯、弗朗茨·瓦格纳、奥斯汀·里夫斯和杰伦·威廉姆斯。詹姆斯的缺阵终结了他连续 21 个赛季入选最佳阵容的纪录。阿德托昆博此前已连续九次入选最佳阵容——包括连续七次入选一阵。
哪些球员面临失去资格的风险？
还有更多球星距离失去评奖资格仅一步之遥。尼古拉·约基奇和斯蒂芬·库里各自只能再缺席一场。文班亚马、科怀·伦纳德、德文·布克和埃文·莫布里可以再缺席四场。卢卡·东契奇可以再缺席五场。安东尼·爱德华兹可以再缺席六场。德尼·阿夫迪亚还可以缺席七场。
—— Zach Kram
选秀乐透观察
看待垫底争夺战的方式有两种。
第一种是，我们是否会看到更多的球队因为违反球员参与政策和做出损害联盟利益的行为而被罚款，甚至是扣除选秀权。
在全明星期间的年度媒体通气会上，总裁亚当·萧华表示，联盟正在探索解决摆烂问题的方案，并明确表示任何手段都在考虑范围内，包括如果球队继续违规就剥夺其选秀权。
由于乐透赔率已发生重大变化，在积分榜垫底并不保证能获得状元签。
最近被罚款的两支球队中，印第安纳和犹他如果选秀权落在保护范围之外，就将失去首轮签。步行者的选秀权如果在第 5-9 顺位将送往洛杉矶快船；如果乐透后排在前八之外，雷霆将拥有爵士的首轮签。奇才如果排在前八，也将保留自己的选秀权。
值得关注的一个剧情是，俄克拉荷马城和圣安东尼奥在排名榜首的同时，还可能在 6 月拥有乐透签。雷霆拥有快船的首轮签，而马刺拥有与亚特兰大互换选秀权的权利（快船和老鹰目前都是附加赛区球队）。与此同时，老鹰在密尔沃基和新奥尔良的选秀权中拥有更优顺位的选择权。 —— Marks
季后赛预测席位（基于 BPI 指数）
| 预测顺位 (西部) | 球队 | 预测战绩 | 预测顺位 (东部) | 球队 | 预测战绩 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 | 61-21 | 1 | 底特律活塞 | 59-23 |
| 2 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 55-27 | 2 | 纽约尼克斯 | 53-29 |
| 3 | 丹佛掘金 | 51-31 | 3 | 波士顿凯尔特人 | 52-30 |
| 4 | 休斯顿火箭 | 51-31 | 4 | 克利夫兰骑士 | 52-30 |
| 5 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 49-33 | 5 | 多伦多猛龙 | 45-37 |
| 6 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 47-35 | 6 | 费城 76 人 | 44-38 |
| 7* | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 45-37 | 7* | 奥兰多魔术 | 44-38 |
| 8* | 金州勇士 | 43-39 | 8* | 迈阿密热火 | 43-39 |
| 9* | 洛杉矶快船 | 42-40 | 9* | 夏洛特黄蜂 | 40-42 |
| 10* | 波特兰开拓者 | 40-42 | 10* | 亚特兰大老鹰 | 40-42 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 预测数据截至 2 月 17 日，*表示需参加附加赛的球队 |
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA viewers guide: Biggest matchups, storylines, playoff races
NBA viewers guide: Biggest matchups, storylines, playoff races
The NBA trade deadline and All-Star festivities are behind us, with two more months of regular-season basketball still ahead, and several exciting storylines continuing to unfold.
Our NBA insiders put together a viewers guide just for you on the biggest questions, most exciting games to watch and award races to keep an eye on.
With the postseason picture shaping up in the coming weeks, which team will be the biggest challenger to the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder? Will we see another head-to-head race between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the MVP, or will a sleeper candidate take the award home this season?
Check out what our NBA insiders had to say and more, including what to watch at the bottom of the standings, with the NBA lottery set for May 10.
Jump to:
Biggest questions | Games to watch
Award races | Lottery watch
Playoff projections
Biggest questions for the rest of the season
Who is the biggest threat to the Thunder in the postseason?
That depends on the health of the Denver Nuggets, who pushed the Thunder to seven games in the West semifinals last season. Like Oklahoma City, Denver has been hit hard by injuries throughout the season, but the Nuggets’ revamped front office has constructed the best supporting cast of Nikola Jokic’s career – if all the key contributors are available for the playoffs.
The Jackals and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs’ fan base have the right to be perturbed that they aren’t the pick here, particularly considering that Victor Wembanyama and crew went 4-1 against the Thunder this season, including three wins in 12 days in December when Oklahoma City was relatively healthy. But a lack of playoff seasoning among this crew plants enough doubt in the Spurs’ ability to get out of the West gauntlet. – Tim MacMahon
Which team is the dark horse in the East?
It’s hard to say the Cleveland Cavaliers are the dark horse, given that the odds put them firmly at the top of the standings. So let’s assume the Cavs don’t qualify, especially with the James Harden acquisition getting folks excited. The Boston Celtics feel like the biggest wild card – even bigger than the Philadelphia 76ers. They’re second in the East without Jayson Tatum, who’s out with an Achilles injury he suffered in last year’s playoffs. If Tatum returns, which seems probable, that muddies up a surprisingly quality Eastern Conference.
It’s impossible to predict Tatum stepping into high-stakes competition easily, but the Celtics are so explosive from 3 and have the second-best offensive rating in the league behind Jaylen Brown (29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists), so they might not need Tatum to be his best self. If Tatum can be a plus defender, rebounder and spot-up shooter, seeing Boston go through two playoff rounds isn’t out of the question. – Vincent Goodwill
Which player incentives should we pay attention to?
One player to watch is Zion Williamson, who is on pace to play at least 41 games for just the third time in six seasons. For Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans, it has become an important threshold to track. Clauses in the five-year, $197.2 million extension he signed in 2022 include criteria for games played and weight, which if not met could decrease his salary protection for future seasons. (For example, because Williamson missed more than 22 games in 2024-25, his $42.2 million salary for 2026-27 is non-guaranteed.)
The extension does allow Williamson’s salary for next season to become partially or fully guaranteed if four conditions are met:
- More than 41 games played ($16,866,604)
- More than 51 games played ($8,433,302)
- More than 61 games played ($8,433,302)
- Weight criteria ($8,433,302)
Having already played 40 games this season, Williamson will see his salary protection increase from $0 to $16,866,604 when the Pelicans host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday. Meanwhile, as long as Williamson isn’t waived, his salary will become fully guaranteed on July 15. – Bobby Marks
Are we watching LeBron James’ final months as a Los Angeles Laker?
James’ future is as murky as it has ever been, with the 41-year-old repeatedly stating that he is unsure if he intends to play next season – he’s a free agent this summer – or retire.
If James wants to play a 24th season, he would be welcomed back in L.A., sources told ESPN.
Lakers president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka declared before the start of this season that he would love it if James retired a Laker, and sources told ESPN that sentiment was meant to reflect a 2026 retirement or a 2027 retirement if James intends to extend his career.
If James were to return, his salary would be a major factor in determining exactly what kind of team L.A. could build.
James is being paid $52.6 million this season. Though he took a $2.7 million pay cut below the max on the last deal he signed with L.A., taking a dramatic pay cut to re-sign with the Lakers this summer would be a significant departure from how he has approached negotiations throughout his career. – Dave McMenamin
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The biggest storyline to watch for the rest of the regular season is _____?
The tank race. There will be some standings jostling near the top of each conference, but it feels like the playoff participants and teams on the edge of contention are generally set. That drama tips in mid-April, but in the meantime there will be a microscope on the race to the bottom and the shameless strategy to grab a few extra ping-pong balls in May’s lottery.
Then there are the top prospects in this year’s draft class. Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson (plus a ton of other lottery hopefuls) are all on college teams that should make some noise in March. NBA fans scouting their next superstars will be watching with some extra interest. – Anthony Slater
Where do things stand between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks? The Bucks are going to try to save this 13-season marriage, but it’s unclear if there is anything they can do before his future (once again) becomes the biggest story of the summer. The Bucks will come out of the All-Star break with a 23-30 record and sitting in 12th place in the East.
Antetokounmpo has not played since Jan. 23 because of a strained right calf, but he is expected to play again in the next few weeks to try to drag Milwaukee into the postseason. Will he be successful? Will the Bucks pivot from postseason contention to improved draft position? Or are we witnessing Antetokounmpo’s last few months in Milwaukee? – Jamal Collier
The Cavaliers have won 10 of 11 – and added James Harden on the tail end of this impressive streak to replace the oft-injured Darius Garland. It’s a signal both financially and tangibly that the Cavaliers are going for it right now.
The failures of the playoffs the past two years still linger, so they’ve made significant changes, taking a huge gamble on Harden despite his history of postseason struggles. They currently sit at No. 4 in the East and are 1.5 games behind the No. 2 seed, which puts them in the crosshairs of the New York Knicks and Celtics in a potential second-round matchup.
We know what to expect from Donovan Mitchell, who’s quietly having his best season. If he and Harden find a way to click in the final two months, they can will this team to the No. 2 spot, thus raising playoff expectations one more time. Are they better prepared for it this time around, or are they setting up to be the same old Cavs? – Goodwill
Biggest games to watch at the top of the standings
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (Feb. 27, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
It has been a charmed start to the James Harden era for the Cavaliers – they were on a three-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break – but it’s still early. The Cavaliers have several intriguing games in the weeks after the break, including a showdown with the East-leading Pistons, who are currently seven games ahead of them in the standings.
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (April 9, 7:30 p.m. ET)
At this point in the schedule, Jayson Tatum very well could be back in the fold for the Celtics after he participated in scrimmages with the Celtics’ G League affiliate last week. With these teams currently separated by half a game in the standings, they’ll be jockeying for top-four seeding in the Eastern Conference standings as the regular season winds down. This game could easily determine it.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (April 10, 9 p.m. ET)
Assuming both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are still eligible to win end-of-season awards, this game on the final Friday of the regular season will not only be a potential Western Conference finals preview but also a showdown for final arguments in the MVP race. As MacMahon pointed out, the Nuggets, when healthy, are the biggest contenders to dethrone the Thunder this season.
Biggest games to watch at the bottom of the standings
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (Feb. 20, 7 p.m. ET)
Utah, which got in trouble for manipulating lineups last week to the tune of a $500,000 fine, will come out of the All-Star break facing Memphis, another team firmly in the tank race. This will be the first matchup between the two teams that traded Jaren Jackson Jr. before the deadline – ironically, another move seemingly designed to help the Grizzlies in the tank race.
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings (April 3, 10 p.m. ET)
These two teams didn’t have designs on being in the tank race at the start of the season but are now firmly in the mix at the bottom of the standings. The Pelicans find themselves here simply because they struggled this season; however, they don’t own their first-round pick this year. The Kings, meanwhile, could be close to clinching a top-three lottery spot with more than two months still left in the regular season.
Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets (April 5, 3:30 ET)
A Sunday afternoon matinee in Brooklyn will see two of the teams that have spent this season fighting for lottery positioning square off with one week to go in the regular season. With the end of the season also determining playoff positions, this could wind up being a massively significant game to determine how the bottom teams in the league all line up.
– Tim Bontemps
MVP, ROY and more! Award races to watch
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
Leading candidate: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Due to both his own superlative statistics (32 PPG on 67% true shooting) and his importance to the best team in the West, SGA is a favorite to repeat as MVP. Oklahoma City scores 121.6 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, versus just 110.0 without him. That’s the same as the difference between the top-ranked Nuggets and 29th-ranked Wizards.
In the hunt: Nikola Jokic
Right behind Gilgeous-Alexander is the player who finished as the runner-up last year. Jokic leads the league in both rebounds (12.3 per game) and assists (10.7), and he’s on pace to set the single-season records for player efficiency rating and box plus-minus. Only a lack of playing time – Jokic has already missed 16 games – holds back the three-time MVP. Fringier contenders behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic include Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown, who lead the top teams in the East but don’t have the individual statistics to match the two most recent MVP winners.
Rookie of the Year (ROY)
Leading candidate: Cooper Flagg
The No. 1 pick is favored to win this award, recovering from a slow start when playing out of position to average 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists at the All-Star break. Even though he suffered a foot sprain earlier this month, Flagg is still on the rise: Over his last six games before the break, he exploded for 32 PPG on 53% shooting.
In the hunt: Kon Knueppel
The No. 4 pick is within striking distance if Flagg falters down the stretch, averaging 18.9 PPG on historic efficiency for a rookie. With 3.4 3-pointers per game on 43% shooting from distance, Knueppel is on pace to shatter rookie records, and he’s a major contributor to a team that could rise into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Coach of the Year (COY)
Leading candidate: J.B. Bickerstaff
Coach of the Year is always a highly contested award with many reasonable candidates – but if the Detroit Pistons finish with the NBA’s best winning percentage, which they have at the All-Star break, then Bickerstaff will be a shoo-in after placing as the runner-up last season.
In the hunt: A number of young coaches whose teams have overperformed expectations are in the hunt for Coach of the Year, chiefly Phoenix’s Jordan Ott, San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson and Boston’s Joe Mazzulla, whose team has withstood the loss of five rotation players from last season to contend in the East.
Most Improved Player (MIP)
Leading candidates: Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson
This award looks like a toss-up between the two first-time All-Stars who are stuffing the stat sheet for play-in teams. Avdija is averaging 25.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game, while Johnson is at 23.3 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists – and the Trail Blazers and Hawks are separated by just one game and 0.7 points of net rating. As long as both players stay healthy, this race should go down to the wire.
In the hunt: As usual, there are more compelling candidates for Most Improved Player than any other award. That group this year includes Jalen Duren, manning the middle for the East-leading Pistons; Keyonte George, single-handedly accelerating Utah’s competitive timetable; Dillon Brooks and Michael Porter Jr., both showing new skills for new teams; Ryan Rollins, emerging from two-way player to legitimate NBA starter; and many more breakout players from across the league.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
Leading candidate: Victor Wembanyama
As long as Wembanyama qualifies by reaching the 65-game minimum, he will be the heavy favorite to take home the hardware. Wembanyama averages a league-best 2.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per game, and no other player influences opposing offensive strategy like the Spurs center. His biggest hurdle will be eligibility, as he already has missed 14 games and has only three more to spare.
In the hunt: Chet Holmgren
If Wembanyama falls short of 65 games, the field opens up to many more candidates. Holmgren might be the favorite in that scenario as the biggest individual standout from the NBA’s best defense. He is allowing opponents to shoot just 47% at the rim, the second-lowest mark in the league. (Only the now-suspended Isaiah Stewart is stingier, at 43%.) The versatility of Scottie Barnes and Amen Thompson makes them worthy of consideration. And Rudy Gobert is a DPOY standby who’s quietly turning in another impressive campaign.
Who are the players already ineligible?
Several stars are already ineligible for end-of-season awards because they won’t meet the 65-game minimum, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Franz Wagner, Austin Reaves and Jalen Williams. James’ absence ends a record 21-season All-NBA streak. Antetokounmpo had made nine consecutive All-NBA teams – including seven straight first teams.
Who are the players at risk of being ineligible?
Many more stars are one injury away from being removed from award consideration due to time missed before the All-Star break. Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry can miss only one more game apiece to remain eligible. Victor Wembanyama, Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker and Evan Mobley can miss four. Luka Doncic can miss five. Anthony Edwards can miss six. And Deni Avdija can miss seven.
– Zach Kram
Draft lottery watch
There are two ways to look at how we watch the race to the bottom of the standings.
The first is whether we will see any more teams fined – or even see a loss of draft picks – for violating the player participation policy and for conduct detrimental to the league.
At his annual All-Star media availability, commissioner Adam Silver said that the league is exploring options on how to fix the tanking issue while also making it known that nothing is off the table, including stripping teams of draft picks if they continue to violate the rules.
Because the lottery odds have changed significantly, finishing in the bottom of the standings does not guarantee a top pick in the draft.
Two of the teams recently fined, Indiana and Utah, will lose their first if it falls outside of a protected range. The Pacers will send their first to the LA Clippers if it is in Nos. 5-9, and the Thunder will have Utah’s first if it is outside the top eight after the lottery. The Wizards also keep their first if it is in the top eight.
One storyline to watch is Oklahoma City and San Antonio finishing atop the standings while also having a lottery pick in June. The Thunder have the Clippers’ first, and San Antonio has the right to swap firsts with Atlanta (the Clippers and Hawks are both play-in teams). Atlanta, meanwhile, has the more favorable first between Milwaukee and New Orleans. – Marks
Projected playoff seeding, via BPI
| Proj. Seed (West) | Team | Proj. Record | Proj. Seed (East) | Team | Proj. Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 61-21 | 1 | Detroit Pistons | 59-23 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 55-27 | 2 | New York Knicks | 53-29 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 51-31 | 3 | Boston Celtics | 52-30 |
| 4 | Houston Rockets | 51-31 | 4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 52-30 |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 49-33 | 5 | Toronto Raptors | 45-37 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 47-35 | 6 | Philadelphia 76ers | 44-38 |
| 7* | Phoenix Suns | 45-37 | 7* | Orlando Magic | 44-38 |
| 8* | Golden State Warriors | 43-39 | 8* | Miami Heat | 43-39 |
| 9* | LA Clippers | 42-40 | 9* | Charlotte Hornets | 40-42 |
| 10* | Portland Trail Blazers | 40-42 | 10* | Atlanta Hawks | 40-42 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Projections as of Feb. 17, *Denotes play-in team |
By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN