By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-10-30 19:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
周五不仅是万圣节。同时，这一天也标志着2025年阿联酋航空NBA杯的揭幕，这项联盟的季中锦标赛将迎来第三届赛事。
至今为止，这项杯赛的单场淘汰赛制对热门球队来说充满坎坷，却让不被看好的队伍惊喜连连。尽管最终的NBA总冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆队杀入了去年的拉斯维加斯决赛，但前两届的冠军（2023年的洛杉矶湖人队和2024年的密尔沃基雄鹿队）在随后的季后赛中都未能赢下超过一场比赛，这足以说明NBA杯的冲刺赛与季后赛的马拉松有多么不同。
总而言之：预测NBA杯的赛果是一项极具挑战性的任务。尽管如此，我们还是借助ESPN的篮球实力指数 (BPI) 的预测，来分析哪些球队处于最有利的位置，该指数会综合考量球队的健康状况和球员能力。
我们使用BPI为所有六个NBA杯小组找出了一支出线热门，以及其他有力竞争者，同时也会关注各分区外卡席位的最终归属。让我们来看看谁最有机会在12月挺进拉斯维加斯。
快速跳转至各小组：
东部A组 (老鹰, 骑士, 步行者, 猛龙, 奇才)
东部B组 (篮网, 凯尔特人, 活塞, 魔术, 76人)
东部C组 (黄蜂, 公牛, 尼克斯, 热火, 雄鹿)
西部A组 (森林狼, 雷霆, 太阳, 国王, 爵士)
西部B组 (独行侠, 鹈鹕, 灰熊, 快船, 湖人)
西部C组 (掘金, 勇士, 火箭, 开拓者, 马刺)
注：本文所有赔率数据截至周三上午。
东部A组
小组热门： 克利夫兰骑士 (55%)
竞争者： 亚特兰大老鹰 (24%)
搅局者： 多伦多猛龙 (11%), 印第安纳步行者 (7%), 华盛顿奇才 (3%)
这个头重脚轻的小组最有可能产生东部的外卡球队。部分原因在于，小组中的球队将受益于对阵在BPI排名垫底的奇才队，以及2023年的亚军步行者队，后者正饱受伤病困扰。
在周三的比赛中，印第安纳队因伤缺阵的球员多达八名，其中包括球队全员健康时的四大核心后卫：泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)、本尼迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin)、T.J·麦康奈尔 (T.J. McConnell) 和安德鲁·内姆哈德 (Andrew Nembhard)。他们中有些人应该能在步行者队最后三场NBA杯比赛中复出，但在周五对阵亚特兰大老鹰的揭幕战中，他们将阵容不整。
骑士队也面临着后卫达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 和马克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus) 的伤病问题，但他们仍然取得了3胜2负的开局。鉴于老鹰队开局慢热，克利夫兰无疑是本组的头号热门。11月7日老鹰主场对阵猛龙的比赛，可能成为决定外卡席位争夺走向的关键一战。
东部B组
小组热门： 费城76人 (34%)
竞争者： 奥兰多魔术 (25%), 底特律活塞 (20%)
搅局者： 波士顿凯尔特人 (19%), 布鲁克林篮网 (2%)
联盟试图通过将上赛季战绩相近的球队分在同一小组来平衡NBA杯各组的实力。但当某些球队的境遇发生巨变时，这种平衡就会被打破，就像在杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 右侧跟腱断裂后，波士顿凯尔特人队所面临的情况一样。
波士顿的实力下滑让B组的形势变得豁然开朗。虽然逆转战胜夏洛特黄蜂和华盛顿奇才的比赛让76人队4胜0负的开局战绩稍显水分，但他们拥有主场优势，将在一场可能至关重要的杯赛中迎战奥兰多魔术。魔术队通过引进德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 升级了阵容，但仍在创造半场进攻机会方面遇到老问题。根据GeniusIQ的数据，他们在非转换进攻中每回合得到1.04分，排名联盟第29位。
这可能为底特律活塞队创造了机会，他们将坐镇主场先后迎战魔术和76人。活塞队在去年的NBA杯中以3胜0负开局，但在小组赛收官战中惨败给雄鹿，从而失去了争夺外卡的资格。
东部C组
小组热门： 纽约尼克斯 (38%)
竞争者： 密尔沃基雄鹿 (22%), 迈阿密热火 (22%)
搅局者： 芝加哥公牛 (11%), 夏洛特黄蜂 (7%)
今年的NBA杯将考验密尔沃基雄鹿队助教达尔文·哈姆 (Darvin Ham) 的完美纪录。他曾在担任湖人队主教练时赢得了首届冠军奖杯，之后又加盟雄鹿队，并随队赢得了去年的冠军。雄鹿队连续两年都闯入了拉斯维加斯，但这都是在达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 的帮助下——他现在已重返开拓者队——上赛季他在锦标赛中场均得到27.3分。
尽管在周二的直接交锋中失利，但随着雄鹿队阵容实力减弱，尼克斯队在东部实力最强的小组中依然是明显的出线热门。纽约队还将在小组赛最后一晚主场迎战密尔沃基。然而，对于尼克斯来说，每一场比赛都至关重要，因为根据BPI的分析，这是东部最不可能产生外卡球队的小组。
与A组和B组不同，C组似乎没有绝对的弱旅。黄蜂队在赛季第一周就大胜了那两个小组的垫底球队（奇才队和布鲁克林篮网队）。与此同时，本组另一支被视为2025年乐透区的球队（芝加哥公牛）本赛季已取得4胜0负的开局，而势头正猛的热火队则拥有东部最佳的净胜分 。
西部A组
小组热门： 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (66%)
竞争者： 明尼苏达森林狼 (17%)
搅局者： 萨克拉门托国王 (8%), 犹他爵士 (5%), 菲尼克斯太阳 (4%)
如果卫冕NBA总冠军最终未能以A组头名出线，那将是一个意外。雷霆队不仅拥有联盟遥遥领先的最佳BPI评级，而且这个小组看起来也异常疲软，因为安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 很可能因赛季揭幕周末遭遇的腿筋拉伤而至少缺席森林狼队的首场比赛。
赛程对森林狼队有利，他们与俄克拉荷马城的对决被安排在感恩节前夜。森林狼的前两场NBA杯比赛都是主场作战，而爱德华兹可能在11月21日他们开始客场之旅时复出，这使得他们以3胜0负的战绩迎接与雷霆的收官战成为一个现实的目标。
本组的另外三支球队，除了彼此之间的交手外，本赛季合计只赢了一场比赛：即犹他爵士队在揭幕战当晚爆冷大胜洛杉矶快船队。
西部B组
小组热门： 洛杉矶快船 (30%)
竞争者： 洛杉矶湖人 (25%), 孟菲斯灰熊 (24%)
搅局者： 达拉斯独行侠 (15%), 新奥尔良鹈鹕 (7%)
从B组通往四分之一决赛的道路将贯穿洛杉矶，尽管湖人队的伤病情况可能会对此产生影响。他们很可能在周五于孟菲斯进行的小组揭幕战中缺少卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，不过詹姆斯可能在11月14日的比赛中复出，并在11月25日与快船的决战前有时间进行调整。（BPI预测詹姆斯将在这两场比赛之间复出。）
快船队进入本赛季时的预测是本组所有球队中最好的，而揭幕战当晚在盐湖城的惨败看起来只是一个偶然。由于他们与湖人队的比赛将在Crypto.com球馆进行，快船队只需在洛杉矶以外的地方打一场NBA杯比赛。
如果灰熊队能在周五击败湖人队，他们很可能会在与快船队的洛杉矶收官战之前一直保持争夺小组头名的希望。独行侠队和鹈鹕队目前尚未表现出足以成为有力竞争者的实力。
西部C组
小组热门： 丹佛掘金 (27%)
竞争者： 休斯顿火箭 (26%), 金州勇士 (21%), 圣安东尼奥马刺 (19%)
搅局者： 波特兰开拓者 (7%)
我们把最精彩的小组留到了最后。众星云集的西部C组包括了三支进入本赛季时在ESPN BET上预测胜场数超过50场的西部球队中的两支（丹佛掘金和休斯顿火箭，另一支是俄克拉荷马城雷霆），外加一支我的模型非常看好的勇士队和未尝败绩的马刺队。
这是唯一一个没有球队被认为有至少30%获胜机会的小组，而且没有哪支球队的概率接近这个数字。排名垫底的开拓者队在赛季初表现出竞争力，在主场击败了金州勇士，这可能会让本组的第二名难以积累足够的净胜分来赢得外卡席位。
如果两队届时仍有出线希望，那么感恩节前夜火箭客场挑战勇士的比赛——凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 加盟休斯顿后首次造访大通中心——可能会成为小组赛阶段的焦点大战。C组的出线形势可能要到两天后，即最后一场比赛圣安东尼奥马刺客场挑战掘金时才能最终确定。
点击查看原文：NBA Cup projections 2025: Group breakdowns, quarterfinal teams
NBA Cup projections 2025: Group breakdowns, quarterfinal teams
Friday isn’t just Halloween. It also marks the opening day of the 2025 Emirates NBA Cup as the league’s in-season tournament kicks off its third iteration.
Thus far, the Cup’s single-elimination bracket has yielded tricks for favorites and treats to underdogs. Although the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder reached last year’s final in Las Vegas, neither of the first two winners (the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023 and Milwaukee Bucks in 2024) won more than a single game the next postseason, indicative of how different the NBA Cup sprint is from the playoff marathon.
All of that is to say: Predicting the NBA Cup is a spooky proposition. Still, we look at which teams are best positioned with the help of projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), which accounts for team health and player ability.
For all six NBA Cup groups, we’ve used BPI to identify a favorite to advance, plus other contenders with an eye on how the wild-card spots in each conference might shake out. Let’s look at who has the best chance to advance to Vegas in December.
Jump to a group:
East Group A (ATL, CLE, IND, TOR, WAS)
East Group B (BKN, BOS, DET, ORL, PHI)
East Group C (CHA, CHI, NYK, MIA, MIL)
West Group A (MIN, OKC, PHX, SAC, UTAH)
West Group B (DAL, NO, MEM, LAC, LAL)
West Group C (DEN, GSW, HOU, POR, SAS)
Note: All odds in this story are as of Wednesday morning.
East Group A
Group favorite: Cleveland Cavaliers (55%)
Contender: Atlanta Hawks (24%)
Lurking: Toronto Raptors (11%), Indiana Pacers (7%), Washington Wizards (3%)
This top-heavy group is the most likely to fill the East’s wild-card spot. That’s partially because teams get the benefit of facing the Wizards, who rank last in BPI, as well as the Pacers, the 2023 runner-up, who have been hard by injuries.
Indiana played Wednesday without a whooping eight players due to injuries, including the top four guards from the team’s full-strength roster (Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard). Some of them should be back for the Pacers’ last three NBA Cup games, but they’ll be short-handed for Friday’s opener against Atlanta.
The Cavaliers are dealing with their own injuries to guards Darius Garland and Max Strus, but are off to a3-2 start nonetheless. With the Hawks starting slowly, Cleveland is a clear favorite in this group. Atlanta hosting Toronto on Nov. 7 could be the key matchup to determining wild-card contention.
East Group B
Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34%)
Contenders: Orlando Magic (25%), Detroit Pistons (20%)
Lurking: Boston Celtics (19%), Brooklyn Nets (2%)
The league tries to balance NBA Cup groups by putting teams together based on their record from the previous season. That can throw things off when teams’ fortunes change dramatically, as is the case with Boston after Jayson Tatum’s right Achilles rupture.
Boston’s downturn leaves Group B wide open. Comeback wins over Charlotte and Washington take some air out of the Sixers’ 4-0 start, but they have the benefit of hosting Orlando in a potentially crucial Cup game. The Magic upgraded their roster by adding Desmond Bane but are still having familiar difficulty creating half-court offense. Their 1.04 points per possession outside transition rank 29th in the NBA, per GeniusIQ.
There could be an opening here for Detroit, which hosts Orlando and Philadelphia. The Pistons started last year’s NBA Cup 3-0 before being blown out by the Bucks in their group finale, taking them out of wild-card contention.
East Group C
Group favorite: New York Knicks (38%)
Contenders: Milwaukee Bucks (22%, Miami Heat (22%)
Lurking: Chicago Bulls (11%), Charlotte Hornets (7%)
This year’s NBA Cup will test the perfect record of Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham, who won the inaugural trophy as head coach of the Lakers before joining the Bucks in time for last year’s triumph. The Bucks have reached Las Vegas both years, but that was with Damian Lillard – now back with the Trail Blazers – who averaged 27.3 points in tournament play last season.
With Milwaukee’s roster weakened, despite a head-to-head loss Tuesday, the Knicks are the comfortable favorites in the deepest East group. New York also gets the benefit of hosting Milwaukee on the last night of group play. However, there’s extra importance to each game for the Knicks because this is the least likely East group to produce a wild-card team, according to BPI.
Unlike Groups A and B, Group C doesn’t appear to have a pushover with the Hornets blowing out the bottom teams in those groups (the Wizards and Brooklyn Nets) during the season’s first week. Meanwhile, the other 2025 lottery team in this group (Chicago) has started this season 4-0 and the surging Heat have the East’s best point differential**.**
West Group A
Group favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder (66%)
Contender: Minnesota Timberwolves (17%)
Lurking: Sacramento Kings (8%), Utah Jazz (5%), Phoenix Suns (4%)
It would be a surprise if the defending NBA champions finished anywhere but at the top of Group A. Not only do the Thunder have far and away the league’s best BPI rating, but this group looks atypically weak with Anthony Edwards likely to miss at least Minnesota’s opening game with a hamstring strain suffered during the opening weekend of the season.
The schedule does work in the Timberwolves’ favor with their matchup against Oklahoma City not scheduled until Thanksgiving Eve. Minnesota’s first two NBA Cup games are at home, and Edwards could be back by the time they hit the road on Nov. 21, making getting to the finale against the Thunder 3-0 a realistic goal.
The other three teams in this group have a combined one win this season against teams besides each other: Utah’s shocking opening night blowout of the LA Clippers.
West Group B
Group favorite: LA Clippers (30%)
Contender: Los Angeles Lakers (25%), Memphis Grizzlies (24%)
Lurking: Dallas Mavericks (15%), New Orleans Pelicans (7%)
The road to a spot in the quarterfinals from Group B goes through L.A., although the Lakers’ injuries could have something to say about that. They’ll likely be without Luka Doncic and LeBron James for their group opener Friday in Memphis, though James could be back by the time they play Nov. 14 and will have time to adjust before a showdown against the Clippers on Nov. 25. (BPI is projecting James’ return between those two games.)
The Clippers came into the season with the best projection of any team in this group, and a troubling opening night blowout in Salt Lake City looks like an outlier. Because their matchup with the Lakers is at the Crypto.com Arena, the Clippers will only have to play one NBA Cup game outside of L.A.
If the Grizzlies can beat the Lakers on Friday, they’ll likely be in contention to win the group up until their finale against the Clippers in L.A. The Mavericks and Pelicans haven’t yet shown enough to suggest they’re serious contenders.
West Group C
Group favorite: Denver Nuggets (27%)
Contender: Houston Rockets (26%), Golden State Warriors (21%), San Antonio Spurs (19%)
Lurking: Portland Trail Blazers (7%)
We saved the best group for last. The loaded West Group C includes two of the three West teams with over/under totals of at least 50 wins entering this season at ESPN BET (Denver and Houston, with Oklahoma City are the others), plus a Warriors team my model was high on and the undefeated Spurs.
This is the only group with no team given at least a 30% chance of winning, and nobody’s all that close. Last-place Portland has looked competitive early in the season, beating Golden State at home, which might make it hard for the runner-up in this group to pile up a strong enough point differential to win the wild card.
If both teams are still in it, the Rockets visiting the Warriors on Thanksgiving Eve – Kevin Durant’s first trip to Chase Center with Houston – could be the marquee game of group play. Group C might not be decided until San Antonio visits the Nuggets two nights later in the final game.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN