By Dean Oliver | ESPN, 2025-10-18 19:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA训练营开启，各队上下无不洋溢着乐观的情绪。无论是工作人员还是球员都兴奋不已。似乎每个人都度过了人生中最棒的一个夏天。一场季前赛的失利，远不足以浇灭任何人的热情。
不，真正能让人心灰意冷的，是在常规赛中被对手狠狠教训。
又或者，是当BPI——ESPN的篮球实力指数——预测某支球队的战绩或许并不像大家想象中那般乐观的时候。
今年，BPI的胜场预测与拉斯维加斯的预测并无太大出入，因此我们将为你揭示一些拉斯维加斯通常不会告诉你的信息——比如你的主队获得季后赛前六种子的概率、闯入总决赛的可能性，甚至还有这些预测背后的原因。
从高居榜首的俄克拉荷马雷霆，到排名二十开外的几支球队，以下是BPI给出的新赛季预测。
BPI预测的西部前六
第1名 俄克拉荷马雷霆 (总排名第1)
雷霆有98%的概率获得前四种子席位。作为参考，这好比在比赛还剩两分钟时手握八分的领先优势。
我不知道人们是否意识到雷霆的阵容深度有多恐怖。上赛季，我们用来评估球员的净胜分指标显示，雷霆轮换阵容中的每一名球员以及轮换之外的几名球员——总计12名队员——该项数据均为正值。相比之下，雷霆总决赛的对手步行者队，在常规赛中仅有五名球员的这项数据为正。
第2名 丹佛掘金 (总排名第3)
掘金有67%的概率获得前四种子席位，从而在季后赛首轮拥有主场优势。
上赛季，掘金队首发与替补之间的差距是全联盟最大的。首发阵容场均能为球队贡献7.6分的净胜分，而替补阵容则会丢掉3.8分。这种模式已经持续多年。但今年夏天，净胜分指标显示球队实力有所提升——小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 升级为卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson)，拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook) 升级为小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.)，德安德烈·乔丹 (DeAndre Jordan) 也升级为了约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas)。
第3名 休斯顿火箭 (总排名第4)
火箭有49%的概率拿下前三种子席位。
这个预测已经考虑了弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 的赛季报销，但BPI认为火箭拥有相当不错的阵容深度来弥补这一损失。根据净胜分指标，上赛季火箭阵容中表现最差的四名球员是：卡梅伦·惠特莫尔 (Cam Whitmore)、狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks)、杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green) 和里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)。其中，只有二年级控卫谢泼德留队。
哦，对了，他们还得到了凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)。
第4名 洛杉矶快船 (总排名第6)
快船有21%的几率闯入西部决赛，对于他们这群经验丰富的老将来说，这个概率低于预期。
快船是新赛季NBA平均年龄最大的球队，轮换阵容中有八名球员超过30岁：尼古拉斯·巴图姆 (Nic Batum)、布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal)、博格丹·博格达诺维奇 (Bogdan Bogdanovic)、克里斯·邓恩 (Kris Dunn)、詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)、科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)、布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez) 和克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)。
但有了这些老将，再加上三名30岁以下的常规轮换球员——伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac)、约翰·科林斯 (John Collins) 和小德里克·琼斯 (Derrick Jones Jr.)——这意味着当伦纳德缺阵时，球队有足够多的优质球员能够挺身而出。
第5名 明尼苏达森林狼 (总排名第9)
森林狼与雷霆、掘金同处一个赛区，因此他们夺冠的概率很小 (3%)，但获得前六种子席位的机会高达63%。
去年，安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 在三分线和罚球线上的得分相结合，每48分钟能贡献+5.2的净胜分，仅次于得分方式没那么均衡的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)。
作为新秀时，爱德华兹在这两个区域的净胜分贡献仅为+1.9，但他每个赛季都在进步。上赛季近40%的三分命中率帮助他实现了巨大的年度飞跃。这种表现能否持续？或许不能。
第6名 金州勇士 (总排名第11)
勇士获得前四种子席位的概率仅为25%，但跻身前六的机会有51%。
斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry)、德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 和克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson) 的辉煌岁月之所以与众不同，原因之一在于他们同时在场时，彼此都能发挥得更好。但这种情况在吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 身上……还未发生。
这部分与球员间的磨合有关，这种化学反应理应在本赛季显现出来。BPI目前并未将这一因素考虑在内（机器学习还有很多东西要学），因此基于勇士上赛季的表现，它仍然持保留态度。
BPI预测的西部附加赛竞争者
第7名 孟菲斯灰熊 (总排名第14)
BPI对孟菲斯的季后赛前景比拉斯维加斯稍乐观一些，给出的概率是52%，而后者为43%。
去年，孟菲斯在拥有贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant)、小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)、扎克·埃迪 (Zach Edey)、杰伦·威尔斯 (Jaylen Wells)、桑蒂·阿尔达马 (Santi Aldama) 和德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 的情况下赢了48场比赛。贝恩已经离队，但他们引进了泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome) 增加了阵容深度，而且肯塔维奥斯·考德威尔-波普 (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) 是一位出色的团队型球员。
莫兰特和杰克逊总是被预测会缺席一些比赛，BPI也承认了这一点，但莫兰特在场时可以打出统治级表现。去年他俩都有缺阵的情况下，灰熊依然赢了48场，所以BPI认为他们在2025-26赛季会取得相似的成绩。
第8名 洛杉矶湖人 (总排名第15)
湖人有70%的概率避免附加赛、直接晋级季后赛，从而为勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的双腿争取一周的休息时间。70%的概率，就好比带着四到五分的领先优势进入第四节。
湖人的球星们仍在建立化学反应。当詹姆斯在场时，卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 每48分钟的进攻净胜分是+3.1，但当詹姆斯不在场时，这个数字飙升至+8.3，足以媲美尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 或亚历山大。
目前，詹姆斯预计将伤缺至11月中旬。他仍是巨星（尽管他的影响力可能比巅峰时期下滑了5-6分），所以缺阵会造成损失，但只是几场比赛而已，并不会扼杀球队的赛季前景。
一个重要原因是东契奇独自带队时非常出色——能打出+8.3甚至在更长时间内维持+5的水平。
第9名 达拉斯独行侠 (总排名第17)
BPI给独行侠7%的概率闯入西部决赛——以及51%的概率进入季后赛。
BPI通常不看好新秀。大多数教练也不喜欢用大多数新秀。凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 和安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 曾是状元秀，但新秀赛季他们所在球队的胜率仅有约三分之一。不过，今年的状元秀是库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，他被预测将不是一位普通的状元，而是能立刻打出出色表现的球员。
如果他能打出每48分钟+2净胜分的水平，这基本是全明星球员的门槛，那会怎样？
如果弗拉格真有那么好，而历史上只有极少数新秀能做到（比如约基奇和克里斯·保罗），那么达拉斯在BPI预测中的排名将跃升至西部第四，进入分区决赛的概率也会更高。
第10名 圣安东尼奥马刺 (总排名第18)
根据BPI，马刺进入季后赛的概率大约是五五开。
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在职业生涯的前三年甚至可能都无法进入季后赛，这确实令人瞩目。
他看起来像一位超级巨星，拥有我们几十年来所见过的最具威慑力的防守存在感。但他在两个赛季里平均只出战58场比赛，而大个子球员通常很难保持健康。
他的进攻全面性看起来也很不错，但他的失误太多了。季前赛79分钟内他就有19次失误，并且在上赛季失误率最高的40名球员中，他的助攻失误比是最低的。
斯蒂芬·库里也是直到第四个赛季才打进季后赛，所以如果文班也需要这么长时间，这并非一个糟糕的信号。
BPI预测的东部前六
第1名 克利夫兰骑士 (总排名第2)
尽管过去两年都无缘分区决赛，BPI仍给骑士51%的概率在今年实现这一目标。
多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 去年对骑士队来说至关重要。在球队获胜的比赛中，他每48分钟的平均净胜分为+6.1。而在失利的比赛中，这个数字是-2.4。这一差距是上赛季联盟最大的前十之一。这并非说限制米切尔很容易，但它为对手们指明了一个限制骑士队的相当直接的关键点。
此外，骑士队是去年从伤病中获益最多的球队，综合考虑自身及对手的伤病情况，他们比平均水平多赢了5.7场比赛。
第2名 纽约尼克斯 (总排名第5)
尼克斯有95%的概率在季后赛开始时锁定前六种子席位。他们有49%的概率成为东部前二。
杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 去年确实无愧于年度关键球员的称号，在关键时刻每百回合能贡献+13的进攻净胜分——当然，这还没算上他的防守。在很大程度上，BPI认为他们新赛季的表现会与去年非常相似，考虑到尼克斯排名前六到七位的球员都已回归，这也合情合理。
但这也假设了教练的变动不会对他们造成负面影响。
第3名 奥兰多魔术 (总排名第7)
在相对较弱的东部，魔术有56%的概率获得前四种子席位。这好比带着两分的领先优势进入第四节，所以伤病最好别像去年那样找上他们。
魔术队若想实现飞跃，就需要保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 打出他去年交易截止日后的表现，当时他是一名联盟前20级别的球员，每48分钟能贡献+3.2的净胜分。
而在交易截止日前的一个月里，他的表现相当糟糕，每48分钟的净胜分为-3.3。
第4名 亚特兰大老鹰 (总排名第8)
老鹰有24%的概率获得东部前二种子席位。这好比在第四节开始时落后五六分最终逆转取胜，所以并非完全不可能。他们跻身前六的概率为85%。
亚特兰大去年的防守排在联盟第18位。自新冠疫情爆发前，这支球队就没能摸到过防守排名前半区的门槛。这恰好与特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 在亚特兰大的时间相吻合。
但随着克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 出战50到60场比赛，以及尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 打满整个赛季，BPI预测老鹰将成为联盟前十的防守强队（尽管只是勉强进入）。
第5名 费城76人 (总排名第10)
BPI预测乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 将出战64场比赛，这是 76人 有90%概率进入季后赛的部分原因，在 恩比德 出战超过50场比赛的每个赛季，他们都做到了这一点。
恩比德一直是一名高风险、高回报的球员。当他出战时，他的表现一直很出色。
但去年有所不同。即使在他上场时，他的表现也并非顶尖，投篮命中率创下生涯新低，并伴随着其他一些惨淡的数据。他仍然是一名高于平均水准的球员，但已不再是过去那种统治级的力量。通常来说，这种变化只是暂时失常，而非长期趋势。
76人近期的未来或许就取决于此。
第6名 底特律活塞 (总排名第12)
活塞在一个赛季内从14胜跃升至44胜。这种大幅度的提升可能意味着次年战绩会回落，但BPI认为他们能复制去年的表现，预测胜场为44场，并有约30%的概率晋级季后赛第二轮。
凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 上赛季一跃进入全明星行列，部分原因在于他为队友创造了质量极高的投篮机会（根据GeniusIQ的数据，排名联盟第五）。
他一直在寻找并助攻像杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)、以赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 和奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 这样的队友，而这些球员从2024年到2025年都取得了进步。
这是搭配稳健老将托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris) 的年轻核心阵容。
BPI预测的东部附加赛竞争者
第7名 密尔沃基雄鹿 (总排名第13)
BPI无法预测密尔沃基是否会交易走扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，但这很可能取决于球队离总决赛有多近。而BPI只给了雄鹿13%的概率进入东部决赛。
以下是BPI对密尔沃基前景普遍持怀疑态度的三个原因：
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密尔沃基失去了达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 和布鲁克·洛佩斯，这是两位一直表现出色的球员。
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新加盟的迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 上赛季前两个月表现糟糕，之后才渐入佳境，而且他一向有“半季好球”的模式。
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小凯文·波特 (Kevin Porter Jr.) 在赛季末为雄鹿打出了职业生涯最好的30场比赛。这种情况很难重现。
第8名 波士顿凯尔特人 (总排名第16)
据说，凯尔特人并不打算“摆烂”一年，BPI也确实给了他们50%的季后赛晋级概率。但他们很可能在赛季中期决定“摆烂”半个赛季。
杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的缺阵意味着留下的凯尔特人球员将获得更多出手机会。杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 会得到一些，但他的效率会因此下降，可能刚好导致他的整体产出有所下滑。
佩顿·普理查德 (Payton Pritchard) 也会得到一些出手机会，但是，根据GeniusIQ的数据，在过去三年里，他的实际命中率比其个人化的投篮质量预期高出超过3%，在同期出手上千次的球员中仅次于另外两人。
德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 可能也无法在增加出手次数的同时保持他出色的效率。BPI预测他们今年的进攻将处于平均水平。我们拭目以待。
第9名 印第安纳步行者 (总排名第19)
由于泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 赛季报销，BPI给步行者36%的季后赛晋级概率。
现在看来颇具讽刺意味的是，步行者队去年是常规赛中伤病优势第二大的球队，由于自身相对于对手的伤病情况，他们多赢了5.6场比赛。这种情况出现一些回归均值是必然的，而在哈利伯顿全年缺阵的情况下，他们显然无法复制这一优势。
总的来说，步行者队节奏很快，这对帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 有利，而且理应对本内迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin) 也有帮助。BPI对西亚卡姆的预测很好，但对马图林的预测则不然。
我一直是马图林的支持者，所以我愿意相信他在季前赛中展现出的高水平表现。如果他能延续这种状态，并且其余的步行者球员保持健康，他们的季后赛机会显然会更高。
第10名 多伦多猛龙 (总排名第20)
根据BPI，猛龙队排在东部第八或第九，落入附加赛区的可能性最高，为57%。
去年交易截止日后的某个时候，曾有一个统计数据流传，称猛龙队将面临NBA历史上最轻松的20场赛程，这是基于他们将要面对的球队战绩得出的。BPI无法回溯整个NBA历史，但它确实证实了，猛龙队在交易截止日后的赛程是联盟最轻松的，而且优势相当明显。
因此，伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley)、雅各布·珀尔特尔 (Jakob Poeltl)、斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 和贾科比·沃尔特 (Ja’Kobe Walter) 在那段时间表现出色这件事，需要结合当时的背景来看待。
对于本赛季，沃尔特的评级从“出色”降至“平均”，特别是考虑到他在此之前的表现有多么糟糕，但其他几位球员仍然保持在出色区间。
不过值得一提的是，BPI并不认为他们中的任何一位（或猛龙去年引进的布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram)）是特别顶尖的球员。
三支拥有高变数球员的球队
西部第11名 波特兰开拓者 (总排名第23)
BPI给开拓者15%的概率进入附加赛。并非不可能，但这就像他们在比赛还剩两分钟时落后四分。
在11月的比赛中，德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 每48分钟的净胜分为-1.1，这主要是因为他在第一节的表现堪称联盟最差之一。
然而，在赛季余下的时间里，阿夫迪亚的表现越来越好。交易截止日后，阿夫迪亚每48分钟能贡献+3.7的净胜分，这个数据让他跻身同期联盟前20到30名球员之列。
东部第12名 芝加哥公牛 (总排名第24)
BPI不看好公牛的季后赛机会，概率约为6%，低于拉斯维加斯给出的16%。也许是因为……
约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey) 在去年交易截止日前后的表现判若两人。那么，如果吉迪在接下来的整个赛季里都能打出更好的水平，比如每48分钟+2的净胜分，会怎么样？
当BPI进行这样的计算后，公牛的排名将超越热火，成为一个有力的附加赛竞争者，但仍不足以跻身前六种子之列。
东部第13名 夏洛特黄蜂 (总排名第27)
很遗憾，BPI对夏洛特评价不高，他们的季后赛概率仅为1.4%。
这是BPI排名很低的一支球队，但我对他们的天赋很感兴趣。拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 在健康时表现不错（但非顶尖）。迈尔斯·布里奇斯 (Miles Bridges) 运动能力出众，偶尔能打出非常好的比赛。布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller) 在两年内展现了切实的进步。而康·克努普尔 (Kon Knueppel) 在大学赛场的大一赛季表现出色。
但黄蜂队的替补席，说得客气点，实力有限。如果那个核心阵容能保持健康，他们的得分能力应该会比BPI预测的联盟第28位的进攻要好。
如果克努普尔表现出色，比如说，打出每48分钟+1的净胜分，BPI认为球队整体实力将提升1.5分，这将使他们处在附加赛的边缘。
点击查看原文：Introducing ESPN's BPI for 2025-2026: Predictions for 23 NBA teams
Introducing ESPN’s BPI for 2025-2026: Predictions for 23 NBA teams
Coming into NBA training camp, optimism abounds. Staffers and players are excited. Seemingly everyone has had the best summer of their lives. It takes a lot more than a preseason loss to dampen anyone’s spirits.
No, dampening spirits is what happens when a team gets punked in the regular season.
Or perhaps when BPI – ESPN’s Basketball Power Index – says a team might not win quite as much as all the optimism suggests.
This year, BPI’s win-total predictions aren’t radically different from what Las Vegas projects, so we’re going to clue you in on what Vegas doesn’t really tell you – things such as the chances your team will gets a top-six seed in the playoffs, its likelihood of making the Finals, and maybe even the reason.
From the No. 1 team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, down to a few squads ranked in the 20s, here’s what BPI forecasts.
BPI’s top six in the Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 overall)
OKC has a 98% chance of earning a top-four seed. For perspective, that’s like having an eight-point lead with two minutes left in a game.
I’m not sure whether people realize how deep OKC is. Last season, the net points metric we use to evaluate players was positive for everyone in the Thunder’s rotation and a couple of guys outside of their rotation – 12 team members in total. In contrast, the Thunder’s Finals’ opponents, the Pacers, had just five players positive in the regular season.
No. 2 Denver Nuggets (No. 3)
The Nuggets have a 67% chance of earning a top-four seed, which brings home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
The gap between the Nuggets’ starters and their bench was the biggest in the NBA last season. The starters added 7.6 points to their scoring margin per game, and the bench took away 3.8. That pattern has been true for years. But this past summer, the net points metric suggests the team improved – from Michael Porter Jr. to Cam Johnson, from Russell Westbrook to Tim Hardaway Jr., and from DeAndre Jordan to Jonas Valanciunas.
No. 3 Houston Rockets (No. 4)
Houston has a 49% chance to take a top-three seed.
This accounts for Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury, but BPI sees pretty good depth to compensate. The net points metric had these Rockets as the bottom four players on the roster last season: Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard. Of those, only the second-year point guard Sheppard returns.
Oh, and they got Kevin Durant.
No. 4 LA Clippers (No. 6)
The Clippers have a 21% chance of progressing to the Western Conference finals, lower than they’d like with all their veterans.
The Clippers are the oldest team in the NBA heading into the season, with eight of their rotation players over 30: Nic Batum, Bradley Beal, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez and Chris Paul.
But with those guys plus three regulars under 30 – Ivica Zubac, John Collins and Derrick Jones Jr. – that’s a lot of quality players to step in if or when Leonard is out.
No. 5 Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 9)
The Wolves are in the same division as OKC and Denver, so their chance to win it all is small (3%), but their shot at getting a top-six seed is 63%.
Anthony Edwards’ combination of scoring from 3-point range and from the foul line was worth plus-5.2 net points per 48 minutes last year, second only to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who wasn’t as balanced.
Edwards added only plus-1.9 net points from those two areas as a rookie, but he has gotten better every season. Shooting almost 40% from 3 last season helped him improve so much year-over-year. Is that sustainable? Probably not.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors (No. 11)
The Warriors have only a 25% chance at a top-four seed, but a 51% shot to land in the top six.
One of the things that distinguished the glory days of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson was that they all played better when they were together on the court. That hasn’t happened with Jimmy Butler … yet.
Some of that has to do with getting familiar with each other, a real effect that should show itself this season. BPI doesn’t factor that in right now (machines still have plenty to learn), so it is still a bit skeptical based on what the Warriors did last season.
BPI’s play-in candidates in the West
No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies (No. 14)
BPI is a little more optimistic on Memphis’ playoff chances than Vegas, pegging the Grizzlies at 52%, compared with 43%.
Memphis won 48 games last year with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama and Desmond Bane. Bane is gone, but they picked up more depth with Ty Jerome, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great team guy.
Morant and Jackson always project to miss games, which BPI acknowledges, but Morant can be dominant when he is playing. The Grizzlies won 48 last year with both of them missing games, so BPI sees a similar season in 2025-26.
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (No. 15)
The Lakers have a 70% chance to avoid a play-in and make the playoffs straight up, thus saving LeBron James’ legs for a week. That 70% is like a four- or five-point lead entering the fourth quarter.
The Lakers’ stars are still building chemistry. Luka Doncic averaged plus-3.1 offensive net points per 48 minutes with James in the game, but plus-8.3 with him out, a number right up there with Nikola Jokic or SGA.
Currently, James is slated to be sidelined until mid-November. He’s still a star (though his impact is probably 5-6 points worse than it was at peak LeBron), so missing time hurts, but it’s only a few games so it doesn’t kill the team’s projection.
One big reason is that Doncic is so good on his own – playing at that plus-8.3 level or even plus-5 over longer periods of time.
No. 9 Dallas Mavericks (No. 17)
BPI gives the Mavs a 7% chance of reaching the West finals – and a 51% shot at making the playoffs.
BPI doesn’t like rookies. Most coaches don’t like most rookies. Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis were No. 1 picks, but as rookies their teams won about one-third of their games. This year’s No. 1 pick is Cooper Flagg, though, and he doesn’t project to be a normal No. 1 pick, but to be good right away.
What if he plays at plus-2 net points per 48 minutes, which is essentially the bottom of All-Star level?
If Flagg is that good, which very few rookies are (Jokic and Chris Paul come to mind), Dallas moves up to fourth in the West in projected BPI, with a better chance at those conference finals.
No. 10 San Antonio Spurs (No. 18)
Per BPI, the Spurs have around a 50-50 chance at the playoffs.
It’s remarkable that Victor Wembanyama has a legitimate chance to go three years into his career without even making the playoffs.
He looks like a superstar with the most intimidating presence on defense we’ve seen in decades. But he has averaged 58 games in two seasons, and big men tend to have a hard time staying healthy.
His offensive versatility looks good too, but he turns the ball over a lot. He has 19 turnovers in 79 minutes of preseason action and had the lowest assist-to-turnover rate among the 40 players with the highest turnover rates last year.
It took Steph Curry until his fourth season to make the playoffs, so it won’t be a terrible sign if Wemby also takes that long.
BPI’s top six in the Eastern Conference
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 2 overall)
Despite missing the conference finals the past two years, BPI gives Cleveland a 51% chance of making it this year.
Donovan Mitchell was incredibly important to the Cavaliers last year. In their wins, he averaged plus-6.1 net points per 48 minutes. In their losses, he was negative at minus-2.4 net points per 48 minutes. That difference was one of the top 10 biggest last year. Not that stopping Mitchell is easy, but it suggests a fairly straightforward key for opponents to limit the Cavs.
The Cavs also got the most benefit of injuries of any team last year, between their own injuries and opponent injuries, gaining 5.7 wins relative to average.
No. 2 New York Knicks (No. 5)
The Knicks have a 95% chance of having a top-six seed at playoff time. They have a 49% chance of being in the top two in the East.
Jalen Brunson was indeed Clutch Player of the Year last year, adding plus-13 offensive net points per 100 possessions of clutch time, which, of course, ignores his defense. To a significant degree, BPI sees much of the same as last year, which makes sense given the returns of the Knicks’ top six to seven players.
But that also assumes the coaching change doesn’t hurt them.
No. 3 Orlando Magic (No. 7)
The Magic have a 56% chance of a top-four seed in the weak Eastern Conference. That’s like starting the fourth quarter with a two-point lead, so the injury bug had better not hit them like it did last year.
For the Magic to take a leap, they need Paolo Banchero to play like he did after the trade deadline last year when he was a top-20 player, posting plus-3.2 net points per 48 minutes.
In the month before the trade deadline, he was quite poor, at minus-3.3 net points per 48 minutes.
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks (No. 8)
The Hawks have a 24% chance at a top-two seed in the East. That’s like pulling out a win when entering the fourth quarter down five or six points, so not at all impossible. They have an 85% chance at landing in the top six.
Atlanta was 18th in defense last year. The team hasn’t sniffed the top half of the defensive rankings since before COVID. That happens to correspond to how long Trae Young has been in Atlanta.
But with 50 or 60 games of Kristaps Porzingis and a full season of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, BPI projects the Hawks to be a top-10 defense (just barely).
No. 5 Philadelphia 76ers (No. 10)
BPI projects Joel Embiid will play 64 games, which is part of what gives the 76ers**a 90% chance to make the playoffs, something they’ve done every season in which Embiid **has played 50 games.
Embiid has always been a high-risk, high-reward player. When he has played, he has been great.
But last year was different. Even when he played, he wasn’t great, posting a career-low shooting percentage among other statistical duds. He was still an above-average player, but not the dominant force he has been. Usually, that kind of change is a blip, not a trend.
The 76ers’ immediate future might depend on that.
No. 6 Detroit Pistons (No. 12)
The Pistons went from 14 wins to 44 in a single season. That kind of bump can mean a regression the following year, but BPI sees them replicating last year, with a projected win total of 44 and about a 30% chance of advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Cade Cunningham jumped into All-Star range last season, in part by creating very high-quality shots for teammates (fifth in the league, per GeniusIQ).
He was looking for and finding guys like Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson, all of whom got better from 2024 to 2025.
That’s a young core to go with steady veteran Tobias Harris.
BPI’s play-in candidates in the East
No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks (No. 13)
BPI can’t predict whether Milwaukee trades Giannis Antetokounmpo away, but that does probably depend on how close the team comes to the Finals. And BPI only gives the Bucks a 13% chance at the Eastern Conference finals.
Here are three reasons BPI is generally skeptical of Milwaukee’s chances:
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Milwaukee lost Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez, two consistently good players.
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Newly acquired Myles Turner played terribly the first two months of last season before playing well, and he has a pattern of playing half-seasons well.
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Kevin Porter Jr. played the best 30 games of his career for the Bucks at the end of the season. A repeat is unlikely.
No. 8 Boston Celtics (No. 16)
Supposedly, the Celtics aren’t taking a gap year, and BPI does give them a 50% chance to make the playoffs. But they could easily decide midway into the season to take a gap semester.
Jayson Tatum’s absence means more shots for the Celtics who remain. Jaylen Brown will get some, but he will lose efficiency in doing so, probably just enough that his overall productivity will drop some.
Payton Pritchard will get some shots, too, but, per GeniusIQ, he has outshot his personalized shot quality by over 3% the past three years, behind only two other players with a thousand shots in that time period.
Derrick White probably can’t take more shots and retain his great efficiency, either. BPI projects an average offense this year. We’ll see.
No. 9 Indiana Pacers (No. 19)
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, BPI gives the Pacers a 36% chance to make the playoffs.
It’s ironic now, but the Pacers had the second biggest injury advantage last year in the regular season, gaining plus-5.6 wins due to their own injuries relative to opponents’. Some regression from that was bound to happen, and they obviously won’t replicate that with Haliburton out for the year.
The Pacers play fast, in general, which helps Pascal Siakam, and it should help Bennedict Mathurin. Siakam projects well with BPI, Mathurin not as much.
I’ve been a Mathurin advocate for a while, so I want to believe in the generally high level of play he has shown in the preseason. If he continues that, and the remaining Pacers stay healthy, their postseason chances are clearly higher.
No. 10 Toronto Raptors (No. 20)
The Raptors sit at the eighth or ninth best team in the East, per BPI, and with the highest chance of landing in a play-in, at 57%.
At some point after the trade deadline last year, there was a statistic floating around that said the Raptors had the easiest stretch of 20 games in NBA history, based on the records of the teams they were to face. BPI can’t do all of NBA history, but it does confirm that they had the weakest schedule after the trade deadline by a pretty good margin.
So the fact that Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Ja’Kobe Walter were all pretty good in that time frame should be put in context.
For this season, Walter drops to “average” instead of good, especially in light of how poor he was before then, but the others guys remain in the good range.
For what it’s worth, though, BPI doesn’t think any of them are particularly special (or Brandon Ingram, whom the Raptors acquired last year).
Three teams with high-variance players
West No. 11 Portland Trail Blazers (No. 23)
BPI gives the Blazers a 15% chance to make the play-in. Not impossible, but it’s like them being down four with two minutes left.
Through games in November, Deni Avdija posted minus-1.1 net points per 48 minutes, primarily driven by his first quarters, which ranked among the worst in the league.
Over the remainder of the year, though, Avdija got better and better. After the trade deadline, Avdija was putting up plus-3.7 net points per 48 minutes, a number that had him in the top 20 to 30 players in that stretch.
East No. 12 Chicago Bulls (No. 24)
BPI doesn’t like the Bulls’ chances at the playoffs, about 6%, below the 16% that Vegas sees. Maybe it’s because …
Josh Giddey was a wildly different player before the trade deadline last year and after. So what if Giddey played at a better level throughout the coming year, say plus-2 net points per 48 minutes?
When BPI does those calculations, it would push the Bulls past the Heat and make them a legitimate play-in possibility, but not a top-six seed.
East No. 13 Charlotte Hornets (No. 27)
BPI really doesn’t think much of Charlotte, sadly, with a 1.4% chance at the playoffs.
This is one team that BPI ranks poorly, but I’m intrigued by the talent. LaMelo Ball has been good (not great) when healthy. Miles Bridges has athleticism and occasionally really good games. Brandon Miller has shown real improvement in two years. And Kon Knueppel had a great freshman year on the college court.
But Charlotte’s bench, to be generous, has limitations. If that core stays healthy, it should be able to score better than the 28th-ranked offense that BPI projects.
If Knueppel plays well, posting, say, plus-1 net points per 48 minutes, BPI sees a 1.5-points improvement as a team, which would put it on the fringe of the play-in.
By Dean Oliver | ESPN, via ESPN