By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2024-11-12 00:30:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
第二届赛季中期锦标赛，即阿联酋航空 NBA 杯赛，将于周二拉开帷幕。所有 30 支球队将在接下来的几周内进行四场小组赛，以争夺晋级淘汰赛的机会，并最终角逐 12 月 17 日在拉斯维加斯 T-Mobile 球馆举行的总决赛冠军。
在勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)的带领下，洛杉矶湖人队赢得了首届 NBA 杯赛冠军，但他们在 2024 年季后赛首轮出局证明，在 12 月的单败淘汰赛中一路高歌猛进与在随后的季后赛中取得成功截然不同。
相反，去年的亚军印第安纳步行者队将他们在 NBA 杯赛中出人意料的成功作为跳板，一路杀入东部决赛，最终不敌最终的冠军波士顿凯尔特人队。
让我们借助 ESPN 的篮球实力指数 (BPI) 来分析哪些球队最有希望追随湖人队和步行者队的脚步，BPI 会根据小组赛的进展生成预测的晋级概率。我们还将评估哪些球队最有希望获得每个赛区的“外卡”席位，并将目光投向拉斯维加斯。
跳转到小组：
东部 A 组 (CHA, BKN, NYK, ORL, PHI)
东部 B 组 (DET, IND, MIA, MIL, TOR)
东部 C 组 (ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, WAS)
西部 A 组 (HOU, LAC, MIN, POR, SAC)
西部 B 组 (OKC, LAL, PHX, SA, UTAH)
西部 C 组 (DAL, DEN, GS, NO, MEM)
东部 A 组
小组热门: 费城 76 人队 (34.6%)
竞争者: 纽约尼克斯队 (23.7%)，奥兰多魔术队 (19%)
潜伏者: 布鲁克林篮网队 (11.9%)，夏洛特黄蜂队 (10.8%)
一支开局 1 胜 6 负的球队成为小组赛的热门，这很好地说明了 NBA 杯赛与常规赛的不同之处。76人队将迎来前 MVP 乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)的回归——他先是因伤恢复缺席，随后又因推搡记者被禁赛三场——正好赶上周二对阵尼克斯队的 A 组揭幕战。
由于 NBA 杯赛的比赛从不会安排在背靠背的第二个晚上，即使全明星后卫泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)因腿筋拉伤缺席较长时间，恩比德也应该可以参加所有比赛。
魔术队在全明星保罗·班切罗(Paolo Banchero)缺阵的情况下连输五场后取得了两连胜，班切罗的腹斜肌伤势肯定会让他缺席整个小组赛阶段的比赛。不过，周二费城主场迎战纽约的胜者应该会在 A 组的争夺中占据有利位置。
尽管如此，由于伤病的影响，这个小组的竞争可能会非常激烈。BPI 模拟显示，所有五支球队（篮网队和黄蜂队构成了 A 组的其余部分）的获胜概率至少为 10%，这无疑是所有小组中竞争最激烈的。
东部 B 组
小组热门: 迈阿密热火队 (38.4%)
竞争者: 密尔沃基雄鹿队 (26.9%)，印第安纳步行者队 (20%)
潜伏者: 底特律活塞队 (8.3%)，多伦多猛龙队 (6.3%)
虽然 B 组的整体竞争不如 A 组激烈，但顶尖球队的竞争是最开放的。目前只有热火队在 BPI 模拟中预计获胜概率超过 30%。这证明了雄鹿队开局缓慢，他们在赛季初看起来像是小组中最强的球队，但早期的挣扎让他们在东部排名垫底。
如果克里斯·米德尔顿(Khris Middleton)能够在小组赛阶段从脚踝手术中恢复过来，雄鹿队可能会得到提升。如果吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)能够在脚踝受伤后尽快复出，迈阿密热火队将继续保持 B 组的热门地位，他们拥有这些球队中本赛季迄今为止最好的净胜分。
步行者队在本赛季以 0.500 的胜率开局后，再次复制去年 NBA 杯赛之旅的希望渺茫。
东部 C 组
热门: 波士顿凯尔特人队 (50.8%)
竞争者: 克利夫兰骑士队 (40.7%)
潜伏者: 芝加哥公牛队 (4%)，亚特兰大老鹰队 (3.7%)，华盛顿奇才队 (0.8%)
ESPN 的布莱恩·温德霍斯特(Brian Windhorst)表示，赢得 NBA 杯赛对骑士队来说是一个不错的目标，他们是 NBA 最后一支保持不败的球队。克利夫兰只有一个巨大的挑战：与凯尔特人队分在同一个小组，而这无疑是最强的两个球队的组合。更糟糕的是，这场比赛将于下周二在波士顿进行，这是上赛季东部半决赛的重演。
尽管凯尔特人队是 BPI 模拟中的热门球队，但由于该小组很有可能产生东部赛区的外卡球队，两支顶级球队的晋级概率都在 70% 左右。
为了打破平局，骑士队需要尽可能地在他们的胜利中扩大比分。去年，各支球队直到小组赛结束才真正意识到最大化净胜分的重要性，导致最后一晚出现了多场一边倒的大胜。这一次，预计可能获得外卡的球队会从一开始就努力扩大比分。
克利夫兰将在主场迎战公牛队，并且可能会在最后一场主场迎战重建中的奇才队的比赛中取得最大的胜利分差。
西部 A 组
小组热门: 明尼苏达森林狼队 (31.2%)
竞争者: 休斯顿火箭队 (26.4%)，萨克拉门托国王队 (20.9%)，洛杉矶快船队 (15.4%)
潜伏者: 波特兰开拓者队 (5.2%)
考虑到他们的年轻、深度和良好的开局，火箭队似乎正是那种可能在 NBA 杯赛中爆冷的球队。
挡在他们面前的是森林狼队（在季前赛得到朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)和多特·迪温琴佐(Donte DiVincenzo)后仍在寻找状态），快船队和国王队。
火箭队面临的挑战是他们两场最艰难的小组赛都将在客场进行。快船队也面临同样的情况，尽管他们目前在客场保持不败。相反，这对萨克拉门托来说是一个优势，他们将在黄金一号中心球馆主场迎战另外两支顶级竞争者，包括与火箭队的比赛，这可能是至关重要的一战。
杰伦·格林(Jalen Green)和新兴的休斯顿火箭队可能会成为一支在 NBA 杯赛赛制中蓬勃发展的球队。 Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images
西部 B 组
小组热门: 俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (43.2%)
竞争者: 菲尼克斯太阳队 (26.4%)，洛杉矶湖人队 (20.1%)
潜伏者: 圣安东尼奥马刺队 (5.5%)，犹他爵士队 (4.8%)
在周日对阵金州勇士队的比赛之前，雷霆队在近 90% 的模拟中都预计能够晋级赛季中期锦标赛的八强。
但在比赛中，球星中锋切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)遭遇了骨盆骨折，这些机会大幅下降。他将至少缺席 8 到 10 周，很可能无法参加整个杯赛。
有几个因素仍然有利于雷霆队赢得这个包括得分能力极强的太阳队和卫冕冠军湖人队的小组。首先，雷霆队将在周五主场迎战太阳队——后者将因小腿拉伤至少缺席两周的凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)——这场比赛对这个小组至关重要。
该小组还拥有西部五支球队中三支净胜分为负的球队（湖人队、马刺队和未尝胜绩的爵士队）——这意味着该小组最有可能产生赛区的外卡球队。
只要缺少杜兰特的太阳队能在俄克拉荷马城保持比分接近，即使输球，他们也有很大的机会晋级。
湖人队卫冕的希望由于要在菲尼克斯打客场比赛而变得复杂，而且在周日战胜多伦多的比赛中，联盟得分王安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)眼部受伤，他能否在本周出场还有待观察。
让安东尼·戴维斯和勒布朗·詹姆斯同时出现在球场上将是湖人队卫冕 NBA 杯赛的关键。(图片来自 Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
西部 C 组
小组热门: 金州勇士队 (33.6%)
竞争者: 丹佛掘金队 (26.1%)，达拉斯独行侠队 (24.1%)
潜伏者: 孟菲斯灰熊队 (13.8%)，新奥尔良鹈鹕队 (2.5%)
西部净胜分排名前六的球队中有三支都在这个小组，这使得它成为 NBA 杯赛中最艰难的小组——而且这个小组也有很多受伤的球星。尽管实力有所减弱的鹈鹕队的前锋锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)和其他几位关键球员都受到伤病困扰，但由于赛程安排的原因，排名第二的球队想要获得外卡席位可能很困难。
金州勇士队的快速开局使他们成为了热门球队。他们还将在主场迎战 C 组其他三支顶级球队中的两支，不过他们将在最后一个比赛日客场挑战丹佛。
掘金队的三场最艰难的比赛中也有两场在主场进行，而且当他们在最后一场比赛中主场迎战金州勇士队时，他们的首发前锋阿隆·戈登(Aaron Gordon)有可能从小腿拉伤中恢复过来。
达拉斯独行侠队和孟菲斯灰熊队（由于臀部受伤缺少后卫贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)）的赛程都更加艰难，尽管独行侠队有能力在任何地方赢球。这其中或许包括 NBA 杯赛小组赛中最引人注目的一场比赛：克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)在周二晚上重返湾区。
点击查看原文：NBA Cup projections: Which teams will reach the quarterfinals?
NBA Cup projections: Which teams will reach the quarterfinals?
The second edition of the in-season tournament, known as the Emirates NBA Cup, tips off Tuesday. All 30 teams will play four group-stage games across the next several weeks for the chance to reach the knockout rounds and ultimately the championship game on Dec. 17 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Behind the efforts of LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup but their first-round exit in the 2024 playoffs proved that getting hot to win a single-elimination tournament in December is very different from subsequent postseason success.
Conversely, last year’s runner-up Indiana Pacers used their unexpected NBA Cup success as a springboard to a long playoff run, reaching the Eastern Conference finals before falling to the eventual champion Boston Celtics.
Let’s break down which teams have the best chance at following in the footsteps of the Lakers and Pacers with the help of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which generates projected odds of advancing as the group winner. We’ll also evaluate which teams are best positioned to potentially claim the wild-card spot in each conference with an eye toward Las Vegas.
Jump to a group:\
East Group A (CHA, BKN, NYK, ORL, PHI)\
East Group B (DET, IND, MIA, MIL, TOR)\
East Group C (ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, WAS)\
West Group A (HOU, LAC, MIN, POR, SAC)\
West Group B (OKC, LAL, PHX, SA, UTAH)\
West Group C (DAL, DEN, GS, NO, MEM)
East Group A
Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34.6%)
Contenders: New York Knicks (23.7%), Orlando Magic (19%)
Lurking: Brooklyn Nets (11.9%), Charlotte Hornets (10.8%)
Having a team that started 1-6 as the favorites to win their group is a good example of how the NBA Cup can differ from the regular season. The 76ers will get former MVP Joel Embiid back from his extended absence – first due to injury recovery, then a three-game suspension for shoving a reporter – just in time to debut in Tuesday’s Group A opener against the Knicks.
And because NBA Cup games are never the second night of back-to-back sets, Embiid should be available for all games even if All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey misses extended time due to a hamstring strain.
The Magic have won consecutive games after dropping five straight without All-Star Paolo Banchero, whose oblique injury will surely sideline him through the duration of group play, but the winner of Philadelphia hosting New York on Tuesday should have the inside track to win Group A.
Still, this is one group that could prove to be wide open due to injuries. BPI simulations show all five teams (the Nets and Hornets round out Group A) winning at least 10% of the time, easily the most competitive group from top to bottom.
East Group B
Group favorite: Miami Heat (38.4%)
Contenders: Milwaukee Bucks (26.9%), Indiana Pacers (20%)
Lurking: Detroit Pistons (8.3%), Toronto Raptors (6.3%)
Although not as competitive from top to bottom as Group A, the East’s Group B is the most open at the top. Only the Heat are currently projected to win 30% of BPI simulations. That’s a testament to the slow start by the Bucks, who looked like the top team in the group entering the season before their early season struggles that have them mired near the bottom of the East.
Milwaukee could get a boost with Khris Middleton potentially returning from ankle surgery during group play. If Jimmy Butler can return soon following his ankle injury, Miami will remain the favorite in Group B, boasting the best point differential of these teams so far this season.
Indiana is a longer shot to repeat last year’s NBA Cup run after a .500 start to this season.
East Group C
Favorite: Boston Celtics (50.8%)
Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers (40.7%)
Lurking: Chicago Bulls (4%), Atlanta Hawks (3.7%), Washington Wizards (0.8%)
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst has said that winning the NBA Cup is a good goal for the Cavaliers, the NBA’s last remaining undefeated team. There’s only one big challenge for Cleveland: being drawn with the Celtics in by far the most top-heavy group. Worse yet, that game will be played in Boston next Tuesday, a repeat matchup from last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals.
Although the Celtics are the comfortable BPI favorite, both top teams advance at around 70% of simulations because of the strong possibility that this group yields the East’s wild card.
For tiebreaker purposes, the Cavaliers will want to run up the score as much as possible in their wins. Last year, teams didn’t really grasp the incentive to maximize point differential until the end of group play, resulting in lopsided blowouts on the final night. This time around, expect possible wild cards to run it up from the start.
Cleveland opens with the Bulls at home and might put up the biggest margin for any team hosting the rebuilding Wizards in the finale.
West Group A
Group favorites: Minnesota Timberwolves (31.2%)
Contenders: Houston Rockets (26.4%), Sacramento Kings (20.9%), LA Clippers (15.4%)
Lurking: Portland Trail Blazers (5.2%)
Between their youth, depth and fast start, the Rockets seem like precisely the kind of team that could make a surprise run in the NBA Cup.
Standing in their way are the Timberwolves (still finding their footing after acquiring Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the preseason), the Clippers, and the Kings.
The challenge for the Rockets is their two most difficult group games will be played on the road. The same goes for the Clippers, although they remain undefeated so far on the road. Conversely, that’s an edge for Sacramento, which gets to host both of the other top contenders at the Golden 1 Center, including the Rockets in what could be a crucial finale.
Jalen Green and the upstart Houston Rockets could be a team that could thrive in the NBA Cup’s format. Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images
West Group B
Group favorites: Oklahoma City Thunder (43.2%)
Contenders: Phoenix Suns (26.4%), Los Angeles Lakers (20.1%)
Lurking: San Antonio Spurs (5.5%), Utah Jazz (4.8%)
Going into their game on Sunday against Golden State, the Thunder were projected to make the in-season tourney quarterfinals in nearly 90% of simulations.
Those chances took a big dip after star center Chet Holmgren suffered a pelvic fracture in the game. He’ll be out at least eight to 10 weeks, likely ruling him out for the tournament’s duration.
A couple of factors still favor the Thunder in winning a group that includes the high-scoring Suns and the defending tournament champion Lakers. First, the Thunder host the Suns – who’ll be without Kevin Durant for at least two weeks due to a calf strain – on Friday in a key game in this group.
The group also has the three of the five teams in the West with a negative point differential (Lakers, Spurs and the winless Jazz) – meaning this group is most likely to produce the conference’s wild card.
As long as the Durant-less Suns can keep things close in Oklahoma City, they’ll have an excellent chance to advance even if they lose.
The Lakers’ hopes of defending their tournament title are complicated by playing at Phoenix, and it remains to be seen if the league’s scoring leader Anthony Davis will be available this week after suffering an eye injury in Sunday’s win over Toronto.
Having Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the court together will be key to the Lakers’ hopes of defending the NBA Cup. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
West Group C
Group favorites: Golden State Warriors (33.6%)
Contenders: Denver Nuggets (26.1%), Dallas Mavericks (24.1%)
Lurking: Memphis Grizzlies (13.8%) New Orleans Pelicans (2.5%)
Three of the West’s top six teams in point differential are in this group, making it the NBA Cup’s most difficult – and one that also has plenty of injured stars. Despite the weakened Pelicans seeing forward Zion Williamson and several other key contributors hobbled by injuries, it could be challenging for the second-place team to claim a wild-card spot by virtue of schedule.
Golden State’s fast start has positioned the Warriors as favorites. They also host two of the three other top teams in Group C, though they travel to Denver on the final night of play.
The Nuggets also play two of their three hardest games at home, and there’s an outside chance they could get starting forward Aaron Gordon back from a calf strain by the time they host Golden State in the finale.
The schedule is more difficult for both Dallas and the Memphis Grizzlies (who are without guard Ja Morant due to a hip injury), although the Mavericks have the ability to win anywhere. That includes perhaps the marquee game of the NBA Cup group stage: Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay on Tuesday night.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN