By Bobby Marks | ESPN, 2025-08-14 19:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
距离2025-26赛季NBA常规赛的揭幕战还有两个多月的时间，卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆队将于10月21日主场迎战休斯顿火箭队，并举行冠军戒指授予之夜。
但展望那些将主导2026年休赛期的故事情节，现在永远不会嫌早。这其中包括了超级巨星勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)、扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)、尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 的未来动向，2026年的选秀大会，以及波士顿凯尔特人队和印第安纳步行者队在当家球星遭遇伤病后能否重返总冠军竞争者行列。此外，在ESPN的NBA选秀专家杰里米·伍 (Jeremy Woo) 的帮助下，我们也将提前审视那些重建球队可能在明年六月追逐的潜力新星。
以下是可能定义2026年夏天的十大问题。
今年夏天签订的续约合同将如何影响明年的自由球员市场？
本月，在短短72小时内，米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)、卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 都签下了长期续约合同。一个月前，小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)、雅各布·珀尔特尔 (Jakob Poeltl)、小贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.)、保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)、切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 也都完成了续约。这九名球员本都可能在明年夏天成为自由球员。
另外两个不在上述名单中但同样有资格续约的名字是特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 和凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)。
杨有资格在6月30日之前签下一份为期四年、价值2.29亿美元的续约合同，如果他本赛季入选NBA最佳阵容，则有资格签下一份为期五年、价值3.45亿美元的超级顶薪续约合同。如果未能达成续约，杨可能会在明年夏天成为自由球员——但前提是他拒绝执行2026-27赛季价值4900万美元的球员选项。
老鹰队在休赛期通过交易得到克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 和尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，签下卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard)，并选中了阿萨·纽维尔 (Asa Newell)，球队实力有所提升。根据ESPN BET的数据，亚特兰大老鹰队赢得东部冠军的赔率排在第四位。杨的队友戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 也有资格签下续约合同。丹尼尔斯在2024-25赛季入选了最佳防守阵容一阵，他可以在10月20日之前签下新合同。
自7月6日起，杜兰特就有资格与火箭队签下一份为期两年、价值1.18亿美元的续约合同。火箭队下赛季的已承诺薪资为1.43亿美元，远低于预计的2.223亿美元的第二土豪线门槛。然而，休斯顿下赛季的薪资中不包括杜兰特和塔里·伊森 (Tari Eason)，后者是有资格签下新秀续约合同的17名球员之一。在过去两个休赛期，已有25名球员签署了新秀续约合同，从而避免进入受限制自由球员市场。（其他可能在赛季前或赛季中签下续约合同的潜在自由球员包括米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)、扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine)、P.J.·华盛顿 (P.J. Washington)、科比·怀特 (Coby White) 和AJ·格林 (AJ Green)。）
勒布朗·詹姆斯在2026-27赛季将身在何方？
唯一可以确定的是，詹姆斯将在明年夏天成为一名完全自由球员，如果他真的要开启史无前例的第24个赛季，那他很可能会选择一支能够争夺总冠军的球队。
明年休赛期的自由球员市场之所以迫在眉睫，是因为詹姆斯选择执行了本赛季价值5260万美元的球员选项。这是这位40岁老将职业生涯中首次在即将到来的赛季没有合同在身——此前的每份合同要么是保障性的，要么带有球员选项——也没有资格签下续约合同。
正如他长期合作的经纪人里奇·保罗 (Rich Paul) 在詹姆斯选择执行选项时所说，在他职业生涯的这个阶段，赢得总冠军是首要任务。
“他知道湖人队正在为未来进行建设。他理解这一点，但他更看重一个现实的、能够赢下一切的机会，”保罗在六月告诉ESPN的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 。“我们非常感激八年来与珍妮·巴斯 (Jeanie Buss) 和罗勃·佩林卡 (Rob Pelinka) 的合作关系，并认为湖人队是他职业生涯中至关重要的一部分。”
“我们理解在为未来做准备的同时，想要立刻赢球的难度。我们确实希望评估在勒布朗的人生和职业生涯的现阶段，什么才是对他最好的选择。他希望让剩下的每一个赛季都有意义，湖人队理解并支持这一点，也希望为他做出最好的安排。”
至于明年他会留在湖人队还是加盟另一支球队，目前仍有待确定。
除了詹姆斯，下一批最好的自由球员是谁？
这份包含39名从球队基石到首发级别不等的潜在自由球员名单，到明年六月肯定会发生变化。
在这些球员中，有38人——包括凯文·杜兰特、詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)、特雷·杨和克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun)——拥有球员/球队选项、是受限制自由球员或有资格续约。詹姆斯是我们唯一确定会成为自由球员的。
然而，正如ESPN的戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin) 在六月底报道的那样，所有迹象都表明詹姆斯的队友奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 将与他一同进入自由球员市场，因为他拒绝了一份为期四年、价值8920万美元的续约合同，这已是规则允许的最大金额。
在2026年夏天，里夫斯将有资格签下一份为期四年、价值9800万美元的续约合同，或者他也可以选择跳出合同的最后一年，成为一名完全自由球员，并有资格获得2026-27赛季工资帽25%的顶薪合同。
明年夏天可能成为自由球员的顶尖球员包括（P：球员选项；T：球队选项；R：受限制）：
- 球队基石： 勒布朗·詹姆斯
- 最佳阵容级别： 凯文·杜兰特
- 全明星级别： 詹姆斯·哈登 (P)，特雷·杨 (P)
- 顶级首发： 布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) (P)，克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (R)，图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) (R)，戴森·丹尼尔斯 (R)，吕冈茨·多尔特 (Lu Dort) (T)，德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) (P)，沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) (R)，扎克·拉文 (P)，基根·默里 (Keegan Murray) (R)，诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)，奥斯汀·里夫斯 (P) 和科比·怀特
- 首发级别： 德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) (P)，哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)，肯塔维厄斯·考德威尔-波普 (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) (P)，约翰·科林斯 (John Collins)，迈克·康利 (Mike Conley)，杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) (R)，塔里·伊森 (R)，八村塁 (Rui Hachimura)，托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris)，以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) (T)，杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey) (R)，CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum)，克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton)，优素福·努尔基奇 (Jusuf Nurkic)，克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯，科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton)，谢登·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) (R)，安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons)，弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) (P)，尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vucevic)，P.J.·华盛顿，安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins) (P) 和马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) (R)
如果目前的受限制自由球员乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga)、卡梅伦·托马斯 (Cam Thomas)、昆廷·格莱姆斯 (Quentin Grimes) 和约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey) 在10月1日之前接受为期一年的资质报价，那么2026年的自由球员市场可能会迎来更多大牌。如果他们接受这份一年期合同，他们将在2026年成为完全自由球员。
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博、尼古拉·约基奇和斯蒂芬·库里将如何影响2027年的夏天？
这几位多次荣膺MVP的球员在2026年并非自由球员，但如果他们在明年夏天不签下续约合同，他们可能会在2027年进入市场。
正如查拉尼亚在八月份报道的那样，阿德托昆博仍在权衡他在密尔沃基的未来，“在过去一周，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博与密尔沃基雄鹿队就其在球队的未来进行了一些‘非常实质性’的对话。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博正在仔细考虑目前的雄鹿队阵容是否具备赢得总冠军的实力。”
雄鹿队在这个休赛期已经用尽了所有办法：他们裁掉并使用延伸条款处理了达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 的合同，然后签下了中锋迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 和加里·哈里斯 (Gary Harris)，并续约了博比·波蒂斯 (Bobby Portis)、小凯文·波特 (Kevin Porter Jr.)、莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins)、小加里·特伦特 (Gary Trent Jr.)、克里斯·利文斯顿 (Chris Livingston) 和杰里科·西姆斯 (Jericho Sims)。
“我们已经做了所有事，我在这个休赛期已经尽了我人类所能及的一切，”雄鹿队总经理乔恩·霍斯特 (Jon Horst) 在七月份告诉The Athletic。
阿德托昆博在2027-28赛季拥有一个价值6280万美元的球员选项，并被允许在明年休赛期额外续约四年，总价值2.93亿美元。这份球员选项将被续约合同的第一年所取代。
约基奇现在就有资格签下一份为期三年、价值2.06亿美元的续约合同，但消息人士向ESPN证实，他已将谈判推迟到明年夏天。再等一年，他将有资格再增加第四年合同，额外获得8700万美元。与阿德托昆博一样，约基奇在2027-28赛季也拥有一个价值6280万美元的球员选项。
与此同时，库里在2027-28赛季没有球员选项，届时他可能将迎来职业生涯中第二次成为自由球员。由于“过38岁”条款的限制，他最多只能续约两年，价值1.367亿美元。库里、小吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler III) 和德雷蒙德·格林都可能在2027年休赛期成为自由球员。
其他有资格续约并可能在2027年成为自由球员的全明星包括多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 和科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)。
哪些球员有资格获得2026年的新秀续约合同？
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 是2023届新秀中有资格签下续约合同的领军人物。
从2026年休赛期开始，文班亚马将有资格签下一份为期五年、价值2.71亿美元的新秀续约合同，合同的第一年将从2027-28赛季开始。如果文班亚马在2026-27赛季被评为MVP、年度最佳防守球员（DPOY）或入选三支NBA最佳阵容之一，续约金额将增加到3.26亿美元。由于他在2024-25赛季没有资格获得联盟荣誉，即使本赛季达到其中一项标准，文班亚马在续约合同的第一年薪水也不会达到工资帽的30%。
其他值得关注的新秀续约候选人包括奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson)、阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)、布兰丁·波杰姆斯基 (Brandin Podziemski)、布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller)、卡森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 和德雷克·莱夫利二世 (Dereck Lively II)。
会有更多球队拥有薪金空间吗？
从2013-14赛季到2019-20赛季，联盟经历了一段平均每年有17支球队拥有薪金空间的时期。自那时起，这一平均数已降至5.1支球队。
球队曾受益于2016年工资帽的大幅上涨以及当时对球员不利的续约规则。然而，自2019-20赛季以来，有两件事发生了变化。
- 由于新冠疫情，2020-21赛季的工资帽保持平稳，随后一个赛季仅增长了3%。然后，在连续两年增长10%之后，2024-25赛季的工资帽仅增长了3.4%。
- 自2020-21赛季以来，共有104名球员签署了续约合同。作为对比，从2011-12赛季到2019-20赛季，只有41名老将签下续约合同。
续约合同的增加和工资帽增长的乏力，导致本休赛期只有三支球队（布鲁克林、孟菲斯和密尔沃基）拥有薪金空间，这是过去13个赛季中最少的一次。
篮网队选择用他们大部分空间交易来了小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.)。孟菲斯灰熊队重新谈判并续签了小贾伦·杰克逊的合同。雄鹿队原本预计没有薪金空间，直到他们裁掉并使用延伸条款处理了利拉德的1.13亿美元合同。
由于今年工资帽增长10%，2026-27赛季增长7%，并且预计今年的老将续约数量将减少（有资格续约的球员中有43%效力于拥有薪金空间的球队），薪金空间将再次成为球队可以利用的资源。
从明年休赛期开始，ESPN预计至少有10支球队——布鲁克林篮网、夏洛特黄蜂、芝加哥公牛、底特律活塞、洛杉矶快船、洛杉矶湖人、波特兰开拓者、犹他爵士和华盛顿奇才——将拥有可观的薪金空间。
我们应该追踪哪些未来的首轮签？
新奥尔良鹈鹕队在选秀夜的举动让联盟各队高管感到惊讶。这种困惑并非因为鹈鹕队向上交易10个顺位选中了中锋德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen)，而是他们为此付出的代价。
新奥尔良现在将把自己或密尔沃基的首轮签中顺位更靠前的一个送给亚特兰大。ESPN BET给出的赔率显示，鹈鹕队赢得西部冠军的希望排在倒数第三，而雄鹿队则被视为东部附加赛的最后一名。
鹈鹕队和雄鹿队的首轮签并不是唯一可能易手的有价值选秀权。
根据德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 的交易，孟菲斯将获得菲尼克斯太阳或华盛顿奇才（若为前8顺位则保留）中顺位最差的一个首轮签。太阳队已经改造了他们的阵容并使其年轻化，他们将杜兰特交易到休斯顿，换回了包括杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green) 和乐透秀卡曼·马卢奇 (Khaman Maluach) 在内的一揽子球员。他们还裁掉并使用延伸条款处理了比尔的合同。
但卫冕冠军可能会拥有最多的首轮签。雷霆队将获得来自休斯顿（若为5-30顺位）、洛杉矶快船（无保护）、费城76人（若为4-30顺位）和犹他爵士（若为9-30顺位）的首轮签。
其他可能易手的潜在首轮签：
- 俄克拉荷马城雷霆送至华盛顿奇才
- 奥兰多魔术送至夏洛特黄蜂
- 波特兰开拓者送至芝加哥公牛（若为15-30顺位）
- 华盛顿奇才送至纽约尼克斯（若为9-30顺位）
我们能期待波士顿和印第安纳重返竞争者行列吗？
凯尔特人队和步行者队象征着NBA的风云变幻有多快。
一年前，杰森·塔特姆 (Jayson Tatum) 签下了NBA历史上最大的合同，波士顿正准备以卫冕冠军的身份进入新赛季。然后塔特姆在季后赛第二轮撕裂了他的右脚跟腱。一个月后，凯尔特人开始拆解他们的冠军阵容，交易了首发球员朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 和波尔津吉斯。
这些削减成本的交易使波士顿的薪资总额从5.4亿美元降至2.39亿美元。
展望明年休赛期，波士顿将迎回一个拥有健康塔特姆、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)、德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)、佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard) 和萨姆·豪瑟 (Sam Hauser) 的阵容。更重要的是，凯尔特人队拥有自己的首轮签，并且有足够的财务灵活性通过自由球员市场或交易进行补强。他们还拥有安芬尼·西蒙斯价值2770万美元的到期合同，可以在交易中用以加强他们的前场。
至于步行者队，他们曾距离被视为本赛季东部的绝对热门仅差三节比赛。然后泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 在总决赛第七场撕裂了他的右脚跟腱，而迈尔斯·特纳则与密尔沃基签约。
好消息是，当哈利伯顿在2026-27赛季前回归时，印第安纳现有阵容中有13名球员仍在合同期内，包括帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)、安德鲁·内姆哈德 (Andrew Nembhard)、阿隆·内史密斯 (Aaron Nesmith) 和T.J.·麦康奈尔 (T.J. McConnell)。而且，与凯尔特人队一样，步行者队也拥有自己2026年的首轮签。
有什么值得我们关注的自由球员市场趋势吗？
资质报价的增加。用薪金空间或特例签下一名受限制自由球员的做法已经沉寂多时。最近两位收到报价的是2022年的德安德烈·艾顿和一年后的马蒂斯·赛布尔 (Matisse Thybulle)。菲尼克斯太阳队和波特兰开拓者队最终都匹配了这两份报价。
这种情况在明年休赛期可能会改变，主要因为预计将有10支球队拥有薪金空间，而2027年的完全自由球员市场相对平淡。
有一个值得圈出的日期可能会改变受限制自由球员的数量，那就是10月20日，常规赛揭幕前夜。这是2022年选秀大会首轮秀们续约的最后一天。在过去两个十月，有14名球员在最后一天完成了续约。
今年，有14名知名球员符合资格：戴森·丹尼尔斯、佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson)、克里斯蒂安·布劳恩、杰登·艾维、杰伦·杜伦、塔里·伊森、本尼迪克特·马图林 (Benedict Mathurin)、尼古拉·约维奇 (Nikola Jovic)、马克·威廉姆斯、谢登·夏普、基根·默里、杰里米·索汉、奥凯·阿巴基 (Ochai Agbaji) 和沃克·凯斯勒。
明年六月的顶尖新秀有哪些？
NBA球队对2026届选秀充满期待，这为重建和摆烂的球队创造了一个有趣的潜台词。再加上普遍认为2027届选秀实力要弱得多，明年春天的乐透抽签将变得至关重要。
2026届的领军人物是堪萨斯大学的后卫达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)（目前在ESPN新秀榜上排名第一）和杨百翰大学的侧翼球员A.J.·迪班萨 (A.J. Dybantsa)，NBA球队认为他们是状元位置最有力的两名竞争者。我认为彼得森稍占上风，他被认为是近年来进入大学篮坛最具活力的得分后卫之一，并通过出色的高中最后一季积累了强劲势头。
与我交谈过的NBA球队认为，在现阶段，彼得森与迪班萨之争确实存在悬念。两名球员都将作为“大一即选”的新生面临更多考验，这也为今年秋季的到来制造了一个重要的故事情节。
紧随其后的是杜克大学的卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 和田纳西大学的内特·阿门特 (Nate Ament)，这两位前锋也展现出巨大的长期潜力，构成了强大的前四阵容。这届新秀的深度还需要时间来形成，但目前还有许多其他有趣的名字预计会进入乐透区，包括路易斯维尔大学的后卫米克尔·布朗二世 (Mikel Brown Jr.)、新西兰破坏者队的前锋卡里姆·洛佩斯 (Karim Lopez) 以及肯塔基大学的大个子杰登·奎因坦斯 (Jayden Quaintance)。在这个选秀周期中，选秀方面将有很多值得关注的地方。 – 杰里米·伍
点击查看原文：NBA free agency 2026 preview - Names, teams, storylines to watch
NBA free agency 2026 preview - Names, teams, storylines to watch
Opening night of the 2025-26 NBA regular season is more than two months away, with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder hosting ring night against the Houston Rockets on Oct. 21.
But it is never too early to look ahead to the storylines that will dominate the 2026 offseason. That includes the futures of superstars LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry, the 2026 draft, and whether the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers can return to championship contender status after injuries to franchise players. Plus, with the help of ESPN NBA draft insider Jeremy Woo, we’re taking an early look at the prospects rebuilding teams could be chasing next June.
Here are the top 10 questions that could define the summer of 2026.
How will extensions signed this summer impact next year’s free agent class?
Within 72 hours this month, Mikal Bridges, Luka Doncic and De’Aaron Fox signed long-term extensions. A month earlier, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jakob Poeltl, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams did the same. Each of those nine players could have been a free agent next summer.
Two names that are not on the above list but are extension-eligible are Trae Young and Kevin Durant.
Young is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension up until June 30 or a five-year, $345 million supermax extension if he is named All-NBA this season. If an extension is not reached, Young could become a free agent next summer – but only if he declines his $49 million player option for 2026-27.
The Hawks improved this offseason by trading for Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, signing Luke Kennard, and drafting Asa Newell. Atlanta has the fourth-best odds to win the Eastern Conference, per ESPN BET. Young’s teammate Dyson Daniels is also eligible to sign an extension. Daniels was named All-Defense first team in 2024-25 and can sign a new contract up until Oct. 20.
Durant has been eligible to sign a two-year, $118 million extension with the Rockets since July 6. The Rockets have $143 million in committed salary next season, well below the projected $222.3 million second apron threshold. Houston’s salaries for next season, however, do not include Durant and Tari Eason, who is one of 17 players who are rookie extension eligible. In the past two offseasons, 25 players have signed rookie extensions and bypassed restricted free agency. (Other potential free agents who could sign extensions before or during the season include Mitchell Robinson, Zach LaVine, P.J. Washington, Coby White and AJ Green.)
Where will LeBron James play in 2026-27?
The only guarantee is that James will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and if he does play an unprecedented 24th season, it will likely be with a team that can win a championship.
Free agency next offseason is looming because James opted in to his $52.6 million player option for this season. This is the first time in his career the 40-year old is not under contract for an upcoming season – every contract was either guaranteed or a player option – or eligible to sign an extension.
As his longtime agent, Rich Paul, stated when James opted in, winning a championship at this point of his career is a priority.
“He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all,” Paul told ESPN’s Shams Charania in June. "We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.
“We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what’s best for him.”
Whether that is with the Lakers or another team next year is still to be determined.
Besides James, who are the next best free agents?
The list of 39 potential free agents who range from franchise to starter will surely change by next June.
Of those players, 38 – including Kevin Durant, James Harden, Trae Young and Christian Braun – have a player/team option, are a restricted free agent or are extension-eligible. James is the only player we know will be a free agent.
However, as ESPN’s Dave McMenamin reported in late June, all signs indicate that James’ teammate, Austin Reaves, will join him in free agency, as he declined a four-year, $89.2 million extension, the maximum allowed.
In the summer of 2026, Reaves will be eligible to sign a four-year, $98 million extension, or he can opt out of the final year of his contract, become an unrestricted free agent and be eligible for 25% of whatever the salary cap is for 2026-27.
The top players who could become free agents next summer include (P: Player option; T: Team option; R: Restricted):
- Franchise player: LeBron James
- All-NBA: Kevin Durant
- All-Star: James Harden (P), Trae Young (P)
- Top starter: Bradley Beal (P), Christian Braun (R), Toumani Camara (R), Dyson Daniels (R), Lu Dort (T), Draymond Green (P), Walker Kessler (R), Zach LaVine (P), Keegan Murray (R), Norman Powell, Austin Reaves (P) and Coby White
- Starter level: Deandre Ayton (P), Harrison Barnes, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (P), John Collins, Mike Conley, Jalen Duren (R), Tari Eason (R), Rui Hachimura, Tobias Harris, Isaiah Hartenstein (T), Jaden Ivey (R), CJ McCollum, Khris Middleton, Jusuf Nurkic, Kristaps Porzingis, Collin Sexton, Shaedon Sharpe (R), Anfernee Simons, Fred VanVleet (P), Nikola Vucevic, P.J. Washington, Andrew Wiggins (P) and Mark Williams (R)
The 2026 free agent class could get a boost if current restricted free agents Jonathan Kuminga, Cam Thomas, Quentin Grimes and Josh Giddey sign the one-year qualifying offer before Oct. 1. They would be unrestricted in 2026 if they take the one-year contract.
How could Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry impact the 2027 summer?
These multiple-time MVPs are not free agents in 2026 but could be in 2027 if they do not sign extensions next summer.
As Charania reported in August, Antetokounmpo continues to weigh his future in Milwaukee, “There have been some ‘very real’ conversations between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in the last week concerning Antetokounmpo’s future with the team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is mulling over whether or not the current Bucks roster can win a championship.”
The Bucks exhausted their options this offseason: waiving and stretching Damian Lillard and then signing center Myles Turner and Gary Harris and re-signing Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr., Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Chris Livingston and Jericho Sims.
“We’ve done everything, I’ve done everything within my human possible power this offseason,” Bucks GM Jon Horst told The Athletic in July.
Antetokounmpo has a $62.8 million player option in 2027-28 and is allowed to extend for an additional four years and $293 million next offseason. The player option is replaced with the first year of the extension.
Jokic is eligible now to sign a three-year, $206 million extension but has delayed talks until next summer, sources confirmed to ESPN. By waiting another year, he would then be eligible to add a fourth year and an additional $87 million. Like Antetokounmpo, Jokic has a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28.
Curry, meanwhile, does not have a player option in 2027-28 and could become a free agent for just the second time in his career. Because of the Over 38 rule, he can extend for no more than two years and $136.7 million. Curry, Jimmy Butler III and Draymond Green all can be free agents in the 2027 offseason.
Other All-Stars who are extension-eligible and could be free agents in 2027 include Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard.
Which players are eligible for 2026 rookie extensions?
Victor Wembanyama headlines the 2023 rookie class eligible to sign extensions.
Starting in the 2026 offseason, Wembanyama will be eligible to sign a five-year, $271 million rookie extension, the first year of which would start in 2027-28. If Wembanyama is named MVP, DPOY or to one of the three All-NBA teams in 2026-27, the extension would increase to $326 million. Because he was ineligible for league honors in 2024-25, Wembanyama will not command 30% of the salary cap in Year 1 of the extension even if one of the criteria is reached this season.
Other notable rookie extension candidates include Ausar Thompson, Amen Thompson, Brandin Podziemski, Brandon Miller, Cason Wallace and Dereck Lively II.
Will more teams have cap space?
From 2013-14 to 2019-20, the league went through a period with an average of 17 teams per year with cap space. Since then, the average has decreased to 5.1 teams.
Teams benefited from the 2016 salary cap spike and extension rules that were not favorable to players. Since the 2019-20 season, however, two things have changed.
- Because of COVID-19, the salary cap remained flat in 2020-21 and then increased only 3% the following season. Then, after two consecutive years of increasing 10%, the cap grew just 3.4% in 2024-25.
- A total of 104 players have signed extensions since 2020-21. For comparison, 41 veterans signed extensions from 2011-12 to 2019-20.
The increase in extensions and lack of growth in the salary cap resulted in three teams (Brooklyn, Memphis and Milwaukee) with room this offseason, the fewest in the last 13 seasons.
The Nets elected to use most of their room to trade for Michael Porter Jr. Memphis renegotiated and then extended the contract of Jaren Jackson Jr. The Bucks were not a team originally projected to have cap space until they waived and then stretched the $113 million owed to Lillard.
Due to the salary cap increasing 10% this year and 7% in 2026-27 and a projected lower number of veteran extensions this year (43% of the players eligible to sign extensions reside on teams with room), cap space is, once again, a resource teams will have available.
Starting next offseason, ESPN is projecting at least 10 teams – Brooklyn, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland, Utah and Washington – to have significant cap space.
What owed first-round picks should we be tracking?
New Orleans raised eyebrows among team executives on draft night. The bewilderment was not because the Pelicans moved up 10 spots to draft center Derik Queen but rather the cost they paid to do so.
New Orleans will now send the more favorable of its own first or Milwaukee’s to Atlanta. ESPN BET gives the Pelicans the third-worst odds to win the Western Conference and has the Bucks as the last play-in team in the Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans’ and Bucks’ first-rounders are not the only valuable picks that could exchange hands.
From the Desmond Bane trade, Memphis will receive the least favorable first of Phoenix or Washington (if 1-8). The Suns have revamped their roster and gotten younger, trading Durant to Houston for a package of players that included Jalen Green and lottery pick Khaman Maluach. They also waived and stretched Beal.
But the defending champs could have the most first-round picks. The Thunder will receive a first from Houston (if 5-30), the LA Clippers (unprotected), Philadelphia (if 4-30) and Utah (if 9-30).
More potential first-round picks that could change hands:
- Oklahoma City to Washington
- Orlando to Charlotte
- Portland to Chicago (if 15-30)
- Washington to New York (if 9-30)
Should we expect Boston and Indiana to be contenders again?
The Celtics and Pacers are the symbol of how quickly things change in the NBA.
A year ago, Jayson Tatum signed the largest contract in NBA history and Boston was entering the regular season ready to defend its championship. Then Tatum tore his right Achilles in the second round of the playoffs. A month later, the Celtics began deconstructing their championship roster, trading starters Jrue Holiday and Porzingis.
The cost-cutting trades saw Boston reduce its payroll from $540 million to $239 million.
Looking ahead to next offseason, Boston will return a roster that features a healthy Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser. More importantly, the Celtics have their own first-round pick available and the financial flexibility to add in free agency or via trade. They also have the $27.7 million expiring contract of Simons to use in a trade to help fortify their frontcourt.
As for the Pacers, they were three quarters from being declared the prohibitive favorite in the Eastern Conference this season. Then Tyrese Haliburton tore his right Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals and Myles Turner signed with Milwaukee.
The good news is that when Haliburton returns ahead of 2026-27, Indiana has 13 players on the current roster under contract, including Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell. And, like the Celtics, the Pacers have their own 2026 first.
Is there a free agency trend we should pay attention to?
An increase in qualifying offers. Signing a restricted free agent with cap space or an exception has been dormant. The last two players to receive one were Deandre Ayton in 2022 and Matisse Thybulle a year later. The Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers eventually matched both.
That could change next offseason, largely because 10 teams project to have cap space ahead of an average 2027 unrestricted free agent class.
The one date to circle that alters how many restricted free agents could be available is Oct. 20, the eve of the regular season. That is the last day that players selected in the first round of the 2022 draft can extend their contract. In the past two Octobers, 14 players extended on the last day.
This year, 14 notable players are eligible; Dyson Daniels, Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, Benedict Mathurin, Nikola Jovic, Mark Williams, Shaedon Sharpe, Keegan Murray, Jeremy Sochan, Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler.
Who are some of the top draft prospects for next June?
NBA teams are excited for the 2026 draft class, creating an interesting subtext for rebuilding and tanking teams. Coupled with the perception that the 2027 draft is much weaker, there will be a lot at stake come lottery time in the spring.
The headliners of the 2026 class are Kansas guard Darryn Peterson (ESPN’s current No. 1-ranked prospect) and BYU wing A.J. Dybantsa, with NBA teams regarding them as the two strongest contenders at the top. I’d handicap Peterson as the slight front-runner, as he’s considered one of the most dynamic scoring guard prospects to enter the college ranks in some time and built momentum with a strong high school senior season.
NBA teams I’ve spoken with view Peterson vs. Dybantsa as a real debate at this stage. Both players will have more to prove as one-and-done freshmen, creating a major storyline entering the fall.
Those two are closely followed by Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Tennessee’s Nate Ament, two forwards who also offer significant long-term upside and round out a strong top four. The depth of this class will need time to take shape, but there are a number of other intriguing names currently projecting in the lottery, including Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr., New Zealand Breakers forward Karim Lopez and Kentucky big man Jayden Quaintance. There will be plenty to watch for on the draft front during this cycle. – Jeremy Woo
By Bobby Marks | ESPN, via ESPN