By Bobby Marks, 2026-08-04 19:00:00
周一，我们探讨了2026年自由市场开启首月所呈现的NBA休赛期趋势。现在，我们将目光投向那些将影响2027年夏天的球员、球队、交易和决策。
哪些大牌球员最值得关注？哪些球队预计将拥有最大的薪金空间？选秀抽签改革是否会改变各队对超级巨星交易的看法？
让我们把时间快进11个月，来寻找答案。
跳转至相应板块：
薪金空间重回主流？
值得关注的自由球员：字母哥、杜兰特及更多
勇士如何围绕库里重组阵容
掘金需要担心约基奇吗？
值得关注的顶薪及新秀提前续约
土豪线对雷霆和尼克斯的影响
值得关注的已交易选秀权 | '27届新秀展望
下个休赛期，薪金空间会更加普遍吗？
去年8月，我们预测了10支在2026年可能拥有薪金空间的球队。但在上赛季期间，随着犹他爵士队交易得到小杰伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)、华盛顿奇才队在交易截止日引入特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 和安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)，这一群体缩减到了仅剩布鲁克林篮网队、芝加哥公牛队和洛杉矶湖人队。与此同时，波特兰开拓者队和夏洛特黄蜂队要么送出了长期提前续约合同，要么重新签下了自家球员。
今年夏天是连续第二个只有三支或更少球队拥有薪金空间的休赛期。
到了下个休赛期，预计拥有薪金空间的球队数量可能会从三支增加到几乎占联盟的三分之一：亚特兰大老鹰队、篮网队、公牛队、金州勇士队、洛杉矶快船队、孟菲斯灰熊队、密尔沃基雄鹿队、新奥尔良鹈鹕队和萨克拉门托国王队都有可能在2027年夏天腾出空间。
勇士队是其中的焦点——斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)、德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 和吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 都有可能成为自由球员——但老鹰队可能会是这群球队中的黑马。
随着C.J.·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum)、卢根茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort) 和乔克·兰代尔 (Jock Landale) 的合同即将到期，再加上巴迪·希尔德 (Buddy Hield) 1000万美元的非保障薪水，老鹰队明年夏天可能拥有高达5000万美元的薪金空间。
整个联盟薪金空间的充裕程度将再次取决于常规赛期间签署的提前续约合同——例如篮网队续约迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 以及雄鹿队续约泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 可能会将这两支球队从名单中剔除——同时也取决于工资帽的涨幅，联盟预计工资帽将连续第二个休赛期仅增长5.5%。（每年的最大涨幅限制为10%。）
谁是2027年的顶级自由球员？
与可用薪金空间的流动性类似，随着2026-27赛季的进行，潜在自由球员的数量也可能会减少。
目前的这一群体可能包括前MVP得主扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)、库里、尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)、勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，以及全明星球员巴特勒、戴维斯、科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)、布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 和凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving)。（阿德托昆博、库里、约基奇、巴特勒、伦纳德、戴维斯、唐斯和英格拉姆在即将到来的赛季都有资格签署提前续约合同，从而跳过自由市场。）
球员与新球队签下高薪合同已经变得非常罕见。在今年夏天更换球队的35名自由球员中，只有诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)（公牛）和沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler)（湖人）在首个赛季的签约年薪超过了2500万美元。自2022年以来，只有八名球员——鲍威尔、凯斯勒、杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)、弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet)、托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris)、保罗·乔治 (Paul George)、伊赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 和迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)——在其他球队签下了首年年薪超过2000万美元的合同。
2027年自由市场最值得关注的名字：
- 基石级别：扬尼斯·阿德托昆博（球员选项）、斯蒂芬·库里、尼古拉·约基奇（球员选项）
- 最佳阵容级别：科怀·伦纳德、勒布朗·詹姆斯（球员选项）、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯（球员选项）
- 全明星级别：吉米·巴特勒、安东尼·戴维斯（球员选项）、凯文·杜兰特（球员选项）、布兰登·英格拉姆（球员选项）、凯里·欧文（球员选项）
- 顶级首发级别：R.J.·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett)、迈尔斯·布里奇斯 (Miles Bridges)、阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)（受限制自由球员）、奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson)（受限制自由球员）、卢根茨·多尔特、基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George)（受限制自由球员）、保罗·乔治（球员选项）、鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)（球员选项）、杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green)（球员选项）、泰勒·希罗、朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)（球员选项）、扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine)、达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)（球员选项）、布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller)（受限制自由球员）、迈克尔·波特、朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle)（球员选项）、弗雷德·范弗利特
- 首发级别：萨迪克·贝 (Saddiq Bey)、安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black)（受限制自由球员）、麦克斯·克里斯蒂 (Max Christie)（球员选项）、比拉尔·库利巴利 (Bilal Coulibaly)（受限制自由球员）、穆萨·迪亚巴特 (Moussa Diabate)、唐特·迪温琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo)、克里斯·邓恩 (Kris Dunn)、杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant)（球员选项）、八村垒 (Rui Hachimura)（受限制自由球员）、乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart)（球员选项）、德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter)、卡梅隆·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson)、佩莱·拉尔森 (Pelle Larsson)（受限制自由球员）、德里克·莱夫利二世 (Dereck Lively II)（受限制自由球员）、阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)（球队选项）、C.J.·麦科勒姆、德章泰·默里 (Dejounte Murray)（球员选项）、布兰丁·波杰姆斯基 (Brandin Podziemski)（受限制自由球员）、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)（球员选项）、马克西姆·雷诺 (Maxime Raynaud)（受限制自由球员）、马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart)（球员选项）、凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace)（受限制自由球员）
2027年是勇士围绕库里建队的最后一个休赛期吗？
既然阵中拥有库里，如果把本赛季称为“过渡年”，那几乎是一种侮辱。
“前进的道路就是赢球，”勇士队总经理迈克·邓利维 (Mike Dunleavy Jr.) 在给ESPN的一份简短声明中表示，“这一点从未改变。”
但由于巴特勒伤病复出时间表的不确定性，以及一个相对沉寂的休赛期，金州勇士在2026-27赛季可能不得不去争夺一个附加赛的席位。不过，勇士队主教练史蒂夫·科尔 (Steve Kerr) 并不赞同这一说法。
“我认为，有时当你像我们去年那样遭遇失败时，会产生一种自然的触底反弹，”科尔告诉ESPN的安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)，“每个人都会非常有动力、非常兴奋，而且我们拥有优秀的球员。我们在健康方面确实需要更好的运气，但我相信我们会得到的。我们去年的表现还不够好。”
除非他们在本赛季交易掉手中仅有的三个首轮签，否则明年夏天注定将是一次围绕库里的阵容大重组。
取决于库里可能进行的提前续约（这位38岁的老将将在8月29日获得签署两年合同的资格），金州勇士在进入2027年休赛期时可能会拥有一张非常干净的薪金账单。库里、巴特勒和格林都是潜在的自由球员，而克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯2000万美元的薪水中只有300万美元是保障性的。
金州勇士可能会拥有5000万到1亿美元的薪金空间。为了利用这一空间，他们需要放弃巴特勒和格林的鸟权，或者以大幅降低的薪水与他们续约。
勇士队上一次拥有薪金空间还是在2016年夏天，当时他们引进了杜兰特。
约基奇在丹佛的未来值得担忧吗？
我们还不打算在丹佛拉响警报，尤其是约基奇已经释放了明年夏天承诺续约的信号。
“我的想法和愿望是留在丹佛。我可能会在明年签约，”约基奇上周在一场国际篮联世界杯预选赛后用塞尔维亚语告诉媒体。
约基奇的合同还剩两个赛季（2027-28赛季为球员选项），自6月14日起，他就已经有资格谈判一份为期四年、价值2.78亿美元的顶薪提前续约合同。如果等到明年夏天，约基奇将有资格作为自由球员签下一份为期五年、价值3.595亿美元的合同。该合同将成为NBA历史上最大的合同，并将其职业生涯的赛场总薪水推高至7.24亿美元。（这是约基奇连续第二个有资格签署提前续约合同的休赛期。他在2025年休赛期曾有资格签署一份为期三年、价值2亿美元的提前续约合同。）
掘金队的财务状况导致了他们度过了一个相对沉寂的休赛期。丹佛以老将底薪签下了老将泰斯·琼斯 (Tyus Jones) 和马文·巴格利三世 (Marvin Bagley III)，并匹配了斯宾塞·琼斯 (Spencer Jones) 与雷霆队签下的两年1200万美元的报价合同。
丹佛是第二土豪线以上唯一一支奢侈税账单可能超过1亿美元的球队，前提是受限制自由球员佩顿·沃森 (Peyton Watson) 签下他650万美元的资质报价。掘金队在未来七个赛季中没有可交易的首轮签，如果他们在2026-27赛季结束时超过第二土豪线，他们2034年的选秀权将被冻结。如果不包括2027年的自由球员卡梅隆·约翰逊、朱利安·斯特劳瑟 (Julian Strawther) 和沃森，丹佛预计在下个休赛期将低于奢侈税线1400万美元。
提前续约会影响明年的自由球员集体吗？
自现行劳资协议（CBA）在2023年休赛期生效以来，平均每个赛季有23名球员签署了提前续约合同。相比之下，在2011年CBA下，这一数字为每赛季1.8人，在2017年CBA下为12.3人。
但在今年休赛期至今，只有四名球员——多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)、内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta)、乔丹·沃尔什 (Jordan Walsh) 和安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins)——签署了老将提前续约合同。与此同时，马刺队的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 是唯一签署了新秀提前续约合同的球员。
有理由保持乐观，提前续约的名单可能会继续增加：
- 阿德托昆博、戴维斯和库里目前还没有资格签署允许的最大合同。阿德托昆博必须在被交易满六个月后（他从1月6日开始有资格）才能签署一份为期三年或四年的顶薪合同。戴维斯（8月6日起有资格）可以与华盛顿签下一份高达四年、价值2.75亿美元的提前续约合同。库里（8月29日起有资格）可以签下一份高达两年、价值1.37亿美元的提前续约合同。其他值得关注的、有资格提前续约的2027年自由球员包括卡尔-安东尼·唐斯、巴特勒（2月起有资格）、R.J.·巴雷特、迈尔斯·布里奇斯、卢·多尔特、狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 和希罗。
- 新秀提前续约的候选人更有可能在临近常规赛开始时签署合同。在过去的三个休赛期中，62%的新秀提前续约合同是在10月份签署的。阿门·汤普森、奥萨尔·汤普森、基昂特·乔治、布兰丁·波杰姆斯基、德里克·莱夫利二世、小哈梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.) 是有资格在10月19日之前完成提前续约的领衔球员。
正如ESPN的沙姆斯·查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 在7月初报道的那样，科怀·伦纳德和多伦多猛龙队很可能会展开提前续约谈判。然而，由于猛龙队正在等待NBA对快船队涉嫌规避工资帽行为的调查结果，得到伦纳德的交易目前处于搁置状态。
本赛季有哪些值得关注的超级顶薪候选人？
泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 和安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)。
马克西在2026年入选了最佳阵容，但由于他的球龄距离满七年还差一年，因此今年休赛期他没有资格与费城76人队签署超级顶薪提前续约合同。如果马克西在本赛季入选最佳阵容（或获得MVP、最佳防守球员），他将有资格在2027年休赛期签署一份为期四年、价值3.01亿美元的提前续约合同，或者在2028年签署一份为期五年、价值3.89亿美元的合同。（如果马克西在三个赛季中两次入选最佳阵容，他将自动获得签署五年提前续约合同的资格。）
爱德华兹上赛季场均得到28.8分，仅次于卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，但这位森林狼队的超级巨星因为未能达到65场的出场门槛而失去了入选最佳阵容的资格。如果爱德华兹多打四场比赛，他本有资格在明年夏天签下一份为期四年、价值3.01亿美元的超级顶薪提前续约合同。
与马克西类似，爱德华兹需要在2026-27赛季入选最佳阵容、获得MVP或最佳防守球员，才有资格获得该合同。即使爱德华兹在2026-27赛季入选最佳阵容，他也没有资格在2028年休赛期签署为期五年的超级顶薪提前续约合同。
其他值得关注的球员包括杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)、锡安·威廉森 (Zion Williamson) 和杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)。约翰逊在2026年入选了最佳阵容，如果他在即将到来的赛季再次入选最佳阵容，他将有资格在2028年与亚特兰大签下一份为期四年、价值3.16亿美元的提前续约合同。
在现行CBA下，今年夏天首次出现没有球员有资格签署超级顶薪提前续约合同的情况。在过去的三个休赛期中，杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)、杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大签署了超级顶薪合同。
明年夏天谁将有资格签署新秀提前续约合同？
前状元秀们（文班亚马、保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)、凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham)、爱德华兹和威廉森）连续五年签下五年新秀顶薪提前续约合同的纪录，可能会在明年休赛期终结。
然而，尽管前老鹰队状元秀扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher) 可能不会在达拉斯签下占工资帽25%的顶薪合同，但2024届新秀中仍有一些球员值得关注。
在圣安东尼奥，尽管文班亚马最近签下了一份五年提前续约合同，且达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 正处于一份四年2.22亿美元的顶薪合同之中，但马刺仍有足够的财务空间来提前续约斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)。
文班亚马选择不在合同中加入针对MVP、最佳阵容和最佳防守球员的30%奖金触发条款，该条款本可以为合同增加5000万美元。这笔节省下来的近1000万美元将有助于确保与卡斯尔达成一份长期合同。
其他潜在的新秀提前续约候选人包括亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr)、里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)、多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan)、扎克·埃迪 (Zach Edey)、马塔斯·布泽利斯 (Matas Buzelis)、巴布·卡林顿 (Bub Carrington)、贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain)、凯尔·威尔 (Kel’el Ware)、特里斯坦·达·席尔瓦 (Tristan da Silva)、雅各布·沃尔特 (Ja’Kobe Walter)、杰伦·泰森 (Jaylon Tyson)、伊夫·米西 (Yves Missi)、基肖恩·乔治 (Kyshawn George)、泰伦斯·香农 (Terrence Shannon Jr.)、莱恩·邓恩 (Ryan Dunn)、伊赛亚·科利尔 (Isaiah Collier) 和贝勒·希尔曼 (Baylor Scheierman)。
土豪线会再次成为休赛期的热议话题吗？
如果没有这个话题，那就称不上是现代NBA的休赛期了。
今年夏天，雷霆队通过多尔特的交易避开了第二土豪线，但下个赛季他们很可能会深陷其中。随着吉尔杰斯-亚历山大超级顶薪提前续约合同的第一年开始执行，俄克拉荷马城将超过第二土豪线330万美元。除非通过交易腾出空间，否则在考虑到凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 的下一份合同后，这个数字还会增加。这位前首轮秀有资格签署新秀提前续约合同，但如果未能在10月19日之前达成协议，他将成为受限制自由球员。
在雷霆队阵容的其他位置，阿杰·米切尔下赛季拥有290万美元的球队选项，如果该选项被执行，他将有资格获得一份为期四年、价值1亿美元的提前续约合同。该续约合同的第一年将从2028-29赛季开始。
第二土豪线对卫冕冠军的影响也还没有结束。
算上唐斯2027-28赛季6100万美元的球员选项，尼克斯队在仅有10名球员拥有合同的情况下，将低于第二土豪线1290万美元。乔什·哈特（8月10日起有资格提前续约）拥有2240万美元的球队选项。阿努诺比 (OG Anunoby) 有资格在下个休赛期签署提前续约合同。
类似于布伦森和米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 采取的方法，唐斯和哈特可以探索以低于其选项金额的薪水进行提前续约，但以此换取未来保障性资金的回报。
总决赛MVP布伦森明年夏天将有资格签署一份为期四年、价值2.54亿美元的提前续约合同，或者也可以等到2028年与纽约签下一份为期五年、价值3.71亿美元的合同。无论哪种方案，合同的第一年薪水都将从2028-29赛季开始。在布伦森选择提前续约或作为自由球员签下新合同的情况下，他4330万美元的球员选项在新合同的首个赛季很可能会增加到5680万美元（提前续约）或6400万美元（作为自由球员）。
哪些已交易的选秀权值得我们关注？
随着选秀抽签改革在2026-27赛季生效，近期被交易的首轮选秀权的价值变得更加难以预测。
例如，在与犹他爵士关于杰克逊的交易中，孟菲斯灰熊获得了犹他、克利夫兰和明尼苏达之中最有利的首轮签。然而，由于新规则的限制，来自犹下的首轮签不能落在前五顺位。（球队不再被允许在连续的选秀中抽中状元签，或连续三年抽中前五顺位。）灰熊队还拥有一个来自湖人队的前四顺位保护首轮签以及他们自己的首轮签。与此同时，休斯敦火箭队拥有与布鲁克林篮网队的选秀权互换权，这也可能会受到新规则的影响。
雷霆队可能再次处于既能在乐透区获得高顺位选秀权、又能争夺总冠军的有利位置。俄克拉荷马城拥有他们自己、掘金队（如果是第6-30顺位）和快船队之中最有利的两个首轮签。
尽管鹈鹕队的战绩排在联盟倒数前十，但作为2025年与老鹰队在选秀夜交易的一部分，他们在2026年并没有选秀权。但在即将到来的赛季中，新奥尔良拥有他们自己和密尔沃基之中更优的选秀权。如果这两个选秀权中的任何一个落在前四顺位之外，亚特兰大将获得其中较差的一个，而老鹰队自己2027年的选秀权将作为2022年德章泰·默里交易的一部分送往圣安东尼奥。
夏洛特可能会加入孟菲斯的行列，成为明年六月唯二拥有三个首轮签的球队。除了他们自己的选秀权外，黄蜂队还拥有一个来自达拉斯的前二顺位保护首轮签，以及一个来自迈阿密的前14顺位保护首轮签。
从现在到2026-27赛季结束，其他可能易手的潜在首轮选秀权包括：
- 篮网队拥有尼克斯队的无保护选秀权。
- 如果圣安东尼奥的选秀权落在第1到16顺位，萨克拉门托将拥有该选秀权。
- 如果圣安东尼奥的选秀权落在前16顺位之外，俄克拉荷马城将拥有该选秀权。
- 菲尼克斯拥有克利夫兰、明尼苏达和犹他之中最差的选秀权。
- 犹他拥有其自身、克利夫兰和明尼苏达之中第二有利的选秀权。
明年六月最顶级的选秀热门是谁？
ESPN选秀专家杰里米·伍 (Jeremy Woo) 为您带来2027届新秀的超前展望：
尽管NBA各队并不指望2027年选秀会是一个星光熠熠的大年，但一批拥有独特技术特点、且在未来11个月内有巨大成长空间的球员领衔了这一届新秀。
这届新秀中天赋最高的球员是泰兰·斯托克斯 (Tyran Stokes)，他目前是我预测的状元人选。他能否保持这一位置取决于他在堪萨斯大学度过一个怎样的赛季。斯托克斯身高6英尺8英寸，是一名能够自己创造投篮机会并在多个领域做出贡献的控球前锋，他可能会成为NBA中极具价值的球员模板。球探们深知他技术特点的价值，但希望在下个赛季看到他提高稳定性并在场上表现得更加成熟。如果斯托克斯能将这一切融会贯通，他完全有希望成为状元秀，但在现阶段，这还远非定论。
另一个需要密切关注的名字是身高6英尺8英寸的斯洛文尼亚后卫斯特凡·约克西莫维奇 (Stefan Joksimovic)，他近几个月势头强劲，不仅在阿迪达斯欧洲训练营（Adidas Eurocamp）中荣膺MVP，还代表斯洛文尼亚国家队出战。作为一名拥有出众技巧和创造力的大个子左手组织者，他看起来非常像一个能够争夺状元签的热门人选，特别是如果他在西班牙打出一个强势的赛季。他拥有成为球队核心创造者的真正潜力，看起来是这届新秀中最具吸引力的长期投资之一。
下一个梯队包括乔丹·史密斯二世 (Jordan Smith Jr.)（阿肯色大学）、凯莱布·霍尔特 (Caleb Holt)（亚利桑那大学）和布鲁斯·布兰奇 (Bruce Branch)（杨百翰大学），他们都各有价值，但并不完全符合传统状元秀的模板。史密斯是一名爆发力十足的攻防一体后卫，但并非天然的控球后卫，而控卫是他6英尺2英寸身材的最佳长期定位。霍尔特是一名顶级的后场防守者，目前仍在完善自己的进攻定位；如果能在自主创造投篮机会方面迈出一步，将提升他的选秀前景。布兰奇拥有出色的身体天赋和显而易见的攻防两端潜力，但这位侧翼球员仍在学习如何作为得分手持续影响比赛。
目前来看，2027年选秀的格局依然充满变数，球员们有巨大的空间去冲击首轮并提升自己的顺位。尽管NBA各队对这届新秀并没有过度兴奋，但人才曲线相对平缓的选秀年份，总是蕴含着发掘低顺位高价值球员的机会。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：NBA free agency 2027 preview: Our Way-Too-Early look at next summer
NBA free agency 2027 preview: Our Way-Too-Early look at next summer
On Monday, we examined the NBA offseason trends that have developed over the first month of the 2026 free agency. Now, we’re looking ahead to the players, teams, deals and decisions that will impact summer 2027.
Who are the top names to watch? Which franchises are projected to have the most cap space? Could draft lottery reform change how teams view superstar trades?
Let’s fast-forward 11 months to get the answers.
Jump to a section:
The return of salary cap space?
FAs to watch: Giannis, KD, more
How Warriors retool around Steph
Should Nuggets worry about Jokic?
Max and rookie extensions to watch
Aprons’ impact on Thunder, Knicks
Traded picks to watch | '27 prospects
Will cap space be more prevalent next offseason?
Last August, we identified 10 teams that could have cap space in 2026. During last season, that group shrunk to just the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers after teams such as the Utah Jazz (Jaren Jackson Jr.) and Washington Wizards (Trae Young and Anthony Davis) acquired stars at the trade deadline. The Portland Trail Blazers and Charlotte Hornets, meanwhile, either handed out long-term extensions or re-signed their players.
This summer was the second consecutive offseason that three or fewer teams had room.
Next offseason, the number of projected cap teams could range from three teams to nearly a third of the league: the Atlanta Hawks, Nets, Bulls, Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings could enter summer 2027 with room.
The Warriors are the headliners – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler III can become free agents – but Atlanta could be the wild card from that group.
With CJ McCollum, Luguentz Dort and Jock Landale on expiring contracts and Buddy Hields’ non-guaranteed $10 million salary, the Hawks could have up to $50 million in cap space next summer.
The availability of cap space around the league will once again depend on any extensions signed during the regular season – the Nets extending Michael Porter Jr. and the Bucks extending Tyler Herro would likely remove both teams from the list – and on the salary cap, which the league projects to increase by just 5.5% for the second straight offseason. (The maximum year-to-year increase is 10%.)
Who are the top free agents in 2027?
Similar to the fluidity of available cap space, the number of potential free agents is also likely to diminish as the 2026-27 season progresses.
The current group could include former MVPs in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Curry, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James and All-Stars in Butler, Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram and Kyrie Irving. (Antetokounmpo, Curry, Jokic, Butler, Leonard, Davis, Towns and Ingram are eligible to sign extensions this upcoming season and bypass free agency.)
Players signing lucrative contracts with new teams has become a rarity. Of the 35 free agents who switched teams this summer, only Norman Powell (Bulls) and Walker Kessler (Lakers) signed for more than $25 million in the first season. And since 2022, just eight players – Powell, Kessler, Jalen Brunson, Fred VanVleet, Tobias Harris, Paul George, Isaiah Hartenstein and Myles Turner – signed elsewhere for a contract of more than $20 million in Year 1.
Top names to watch in 2027 free agency:
- Franchise level: Giannis Antetokounmpo (player option), Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic (player option)
- All-NBA level: Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James (player option), Karl-Anthony Towns (player option)
- All-Star level: Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis (player option), Kevin Durant (player option), Brandon Ingram (player option), Kyrie Irving (player option)
- Top-starter level: RJ Barrett, Miles Bridges, Amen Thompson (restricted free agent), Ausar Thompson (restricted free agent), Luguentz Dort, Keyonte George (restricted free agent), Paul George (player option), Rudy Gobert (player option), Jalen Green (player option), Tyler Herro, Jrue Holiday (player option), Zach LaVine, Damian Lillard (player option), Brandon Miller (restricted free agent), Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle (player option), Fred VanVleet
- Starter level: Saddiq Bey, Anthony Black (restricted free agent), Max Christie (player option), Bilal Coulibaly (restricted free agent), Moussa Diabate, Donte DiVincenzo, Kris Dunn, Jerami Grant (player option), Rui Hachimura (restricted free agent), Josh Hart (player option), De’Andre Hunter, Cameron Johnson, Pelle Larsson (restricted free agent), Dereck Lively II (restricted free agent), Ajay Mitchell (team option), CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray (player option), Brandin Podziemski (restricted free agent), Kristaps Porzingis (player option), Maxime Raynaud (restricted free agent), Marcus Smart (player option), Cason Wallace (restricted free agent)
Is 2027 the Warriors’ final offseason to build around Steph?
It would almost be an insult to call this season a gap year with Curry on the roster.
“The path forward is to win,” Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. said in a brief statement to ESPN. “Never changes.”
But with Butler’s uncertain injury timeline and a relatively quiet offseason, Golden State will likely jockey for one of the final play-in spots in 2026-27. But Warriors coach Steve Kerr would disagree with that statement.
“I think sometimes when you fail like we did last year, there’s kind of a natural bounce back,” Kerr told ESPN’s Anthony Slater. “Everybody’s going to be really, really motivated and excited, and we’ve got good players. We do need some better luck health-wise, but I think we’ll get that. What we did last year wasn’t good enough.”
Barring them trading their three available first-rounders this season, next summer is setting up to be a roster revamp around Curry.
Depending on a possible Curry extension (the 38-year-old becomes eligible to sign a two-year deal Aug. 29), Golden State could hit the 2027 offseason with a clean cap ledger. Curry, Butler and Green are potential free agents, while only $3 million of Kristaps Porzingis’ $20 million salary is guaranteed.
Golden State could have between $50 million and $100 million in cap space. To use the room, Butler and Green would need to be renounced or signed at a significantly lower salary.
The last time the Warriors had cap space was in summer 2016 when they added Durant.
Should there be concern about Jokic’s future in Denver?
We are not ready to sound the alarm in Denver, especially after Jokic signaled his commitment to re-signing next summer.
“My idea and desire is to stay in Denver. I’ll probably sign next year,” Jokic told reporters in Serbian after a FIBA World Cup qualifying game last week.
Jokic is under contract for two seasons (2027-28 is a player option) and has been eligible to negotiate a four-year, $278 million max extension since June 14. By waiting until next summer, Jokic will be eligible to sign a five-year, $359.5 million contract as a free agent. That contract would be the largest in NBA history and would propel his career on-court earnings to $724 million. (This is the second consecutive offseason in which Jokic was eligible to sign an extension. He was eligible in the 2025 offseason to sign a three-year $200 million extension.)
The Nuggets’ finances played into their relatively quiet offseason. Denver signed veterans Tyus Jones and Marvin Bagley III to the veteran minimum and matched the two-year, $12 million offer sheet Spencer Jones signed with the Thunder.
Denver is the only team in the second apron with luxury tax payments that will likely exceed $100 million if restricted free agent Peyton Watson signs his $6.5 million qualifying offer. The Nuggets have no tradeable first-rounders in the next seven seasons, and their 2034 pick becomes frozen if they finish 2026-27 over the second apron. Not including 2027 free agents Cameron Johnson, Julian Strawther and Watson, Denver projects to be $14 million below the luxury tax next offseason.
Will extensions impact next year’s free agent class?
Since the current CBA started in the 2023 offseason, an average of 23 players have extended their contract each season. For comparison, there were 1.8 per season under the 2011 CBA and 12.3 under the 2017 CBA.
But so far this offseason, just four players – Donovan Mitchell, Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh, Andrew Wiggins – signed veteran extensions. The Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama, meanwhile, is the only player to sign a rookie extension.
There are reasons for optimism that the extension list could grow:
- Antetokounmpo, Davis and Curry are not eligible yet to sign the maximum allowed. Antetokounmpo must wait six months from the time he was traded (he is eligible starting Jan. 6) to sign either a three- or four-year max deal. Davis (eligible starting Aug. 6) could sign up to a four-year, $275 million extension with Washington. Curry (eligible Aug. 29) could sign up to a two-year, $137 million extension. Other notable 2027 free agents who are eligible to extend include Karl-Anthony Towns, Butler (eligible in February), RJ Barrett, Miles Bridges, Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks and Herro.
- Rookie extension candidates are more likely to sign contracts closer to the start of the regular season. In the prior three offseasons, 62% of rookie extensions have been signed in October. Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Keyonte George, Brandin Podziemski, Dereck Lively II, Jaime Jaquez Jr. headline players eligible to extend up to Oct. 19.
As ESPN’s Shams Charania reported in early July, it is likely Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors will engage in extension talks. The trade to acquire Leonard, however, is on hold as the Raptors wait for the NBA findings into alleged salary cap circumvention by the Clippers.
Who are the supermax candidates to watch this season?
Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards.
Maxey was named All-NBA in 2026 but was not eligible to sign a supermax extension this offseason with the Philadelphia 76ers because he was one year short of seven years of service. If Maxey is named All-NBA (or MVP or Defensive Player of the Year) this season, he would become eligible to sign a four-year, $301 million extension in the 2027 offseason or a five-year, $389 million extension in 2028. (Maxey would automatically be eligible to sign the five-year extension via All-NBA selections in two out of three seasons.)
Edwards’ 28.8 points per game last season trailed only Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Timberwolves’ superstar was ineligible for All-NBA because he fell short of the 65-games-played threshold. If Edwards had played four more games, he would have been eligible to sign a four-year, $301 million supermax extension next summer.
Similar to Maxey, Edwards will need All-NBA, MVP or Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2026-27 to become eligible for that deal. Edwards will not be eligible to sign the five-year supermax extension in the 2028 offseason even if he is named All-NBA in 2026-27.
Other players to watch include Jaden McDaniels, Zion Williamson and Jalen Johnson. Johnson was named All-NBA in 2026 and would become eligible to sign a four-year, $316 million extension with Atlanta in 2028 if he is named All-NBA again this upcoming season.
For the first time under the current CBA, no players were eligible to sign a supermax extension this summer. In the previous three offseasons, Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gilgeous-Alexander signed supermax deals.
Who will be eligible for rookie extensions next summer?
The five-year streak of former No. 1 picks (Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Cade Cunningham, Edwards and Williamson) signing a five-year rookie max extension will likely end next offseason.
However, despite former Hawks No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher likely not signing for 25% of the salary cap in Dallas, there are players to watch in the class of 2024.
In San Antonio, there is a financial runway to extend Stephon Castle despite Wembanyama recently signing a five-year extension and De’Aaron Fox in the middle of a four-year, $222 million max contract.
Wembanyama chose not to include the 30% escalator clause for MVP, All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year that would have added $50 million to the contract. The nearly $10 million in savings will help secure a long-term deal with Castle.
Other possible rookie extension candidates include Alex Sarr, Reed Sheppard, Donovan Clingan, Zach Edey, Matas Buzelis, Bub Carrington, Jared McCain, Kel’el Ware, Tristan da Silva, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jaylon Tyson, Yves Missi, Kyshawn George, Terrence Shannon Jr., Ryan Dunn, Isaiah Collier and Baylor Scheierman.
Will aprons again be a hot-button topic in the offseason?
It wouldn’t be a modern NBA offseason without it.
This summer, the Thunder escaped the second apron via the Dort trade but are likely entrenched there next season. With Year 1 of Gilgeous-Alexander’s super max extension set to begin, Oklahoma City will be $3.3 million over the second apron. Barring a trade to free up room, that number will increase when factoring in Cason Wallace’s next contract. The former first-rounder is eligible to sign a rookie extension but will become a restricted free agent if a contract is not reached by Oct. 19.
Elsewhere on the Thunder roster, Ajay Mitchell has a $2.9 million team option next season and is eligible for a four-year, $100 million extension if the option is exercised. The first year of the extension would start in 2028-29.
The second apron isn’t done impacting the defending champs, either.
Including Towns’ $61 million player option for 2027-28, the Knicks will be $12.9 million below the second apron with just 10 players under contract. Josh Hart, eligible to extend Aug. 10, has a $22.4 million team option. OG Anunoby is eligible to sign an extension next offseason.
Similar to the approach taken by Brunson and Mikal Bridges, Towns and Hart could explore extending at a lesser salary than their option number but with the reward of future guaranteed money.
Brunson, the Finals MVP, will be eligible for a four-year, $254 million extension next summer or could wait until 2028 to sign a five-year, $371 million contract with New York. The first-year salary in either deal would start in 2028-29. In the scenario that Brunson extends or signs a new contract as a free agent, his $43.3 million player option is likely to increase to $56.8 million (on an extension) or $64 million (as a free agent) in the first season of a new contract.
Which traded picks should we be tracking?
With draft lottery changes taking effect for 2026-27, the value of recently traded first-round picks has become much less predictable.
For example, from the Jackson trade with Utah, Memphis acquired the most favorable first-rounder among Utah, Cleveland and Minnesota. However, because of the new rules, the first-rounder from Utah cannot be in the top five. (Teams are no longer permitted to select first in consecutive drafts or in the top five in three consecutive drafts.) The Grizzlies also have a top-four protected first-rounder from the Lakers and their own first. The Rockets, meanwhile, have swap rights with Brooklyn that could be impacted by the new rules.
Once again, the Thunder could be in position to draft high in the lottery and compete for a championship. Oklahoma City has the two most favorable first-rounders between their own, the Nuggets (if 6-30) and Clippers.
The Pelicans, despite finishing with a bottom-10 record, did not have a pick in 2026 as part of a draft-night trade with the Hawks in 2025. But this upcoming season, New Orleans has the more favorable pick between their own and Milwaukee. Atlanta has the least favorable if either pick falls outside the top four, and the Hawks’ own 2027 pick will head to San Antonio as part of the Dejounte Murray trade in 2022.
Charlotte could join Memphis as the only teams with three first-rounders next June. In addition to their own pick, the Hornets have a top-two protected first-rounder from Dallas and a top-14 protected first-rounder from Miami.
Other potential first-round picks that could change hands between now and the end of 2026-27:
- Brooklyn has New York’s pick unprotected.
- Sacramento has San Antonio’s pick if it lands between Nos. 1 and 16.
- Oklahoma City has San Antonio’s pick if it lands outside the top 16.
- Phoenix has the least favorable pick among Cleveland, Minnesota and Utah.
- Utah has the second most favorable pick among its own, Cleveland and Minnesota.
Who are the top draft prospects for next June?
ESPN NBA draft expert Jeremy Woo provides an early look at the class of 2027:
Though NBA teams don’t expect a star-studded 2027 draft, a group of players with interesting skill sets and plenty of room to grow over the next 11 months headlines the class.
The most talented player in the class is Tyran Stokes, currently my projected No. 1 pick. Whether he stays there hinges on what type of season he has at Kansas. Stokes could become a highly valuable NBA archetype as a 6-foot-8 point forward who can create his own shot and contribute in several areas. Scouts understand the value of his skill set but want to see improved consistency and on-court maturity from him next season. If Stokes can tie it all together, the pathway is there for him to be the No. 1 pick, but that’s far from a foregone conclusion at this stage.
Another name to keep a close eye on is 6-8 Slovenian guard Stefan Joksimovic, who has built momentum in recent months, winning MVP at Adidas Eurocamp and featuring for Slovenia internationally. A big left-handed playmaker with exceptional craft and creativity, he has looked very much like a prospect who can contend for the top spot, particularly if he puts together a strong season in Spain. He has legitimate lead-creator upside and looks like one of the class’ more intriguing long-term bets.
The next group includes Jordan Smith Jr. (Arkansas), Caleb Holt (Arizona) and Bruce Branch (BYU), who all bring value but don’t fit neatly into traditional No. 1 pick molds. Smith is an explosive two-way guard but not a natural point, the best long-term position for his 6-2 frame. Holt is a top-end backcourt defender who is still fleshing out his offensive identity; taking a step forward as a shot-creator would boost his projection. Branch has excellent physical tools and obvious two-way potential, but the wing is still learning to consistently impact games as a scorer.
Consider the 2027 draft puzzle to be fluid at this point, with tons of room for players to work their way into the first round and up the board. Though NBA teams aren’t overly excited about this group, draft classes with flatter talent curves always present opportunities to discover value.
By Bobby Marks, via ESPN