By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-04-07 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
亚历山大和约基奇都打出了历史级别的赛季，那么谁更应该获得MVP？
在这个充满历史性表现的赛季里，有两位球员脱颖而出。
尼古拉·约基奇在已经三次获得MVP之后，居然打出了他职业生涯中最好的一年，而谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)则凭借一己之力让加拿大人继续关注着美国的篮球赛事。
那么，“大个子甜心”会再次称霸，还是“亚历山大陛下”将正式加冕MVP？
让我们一探究竟。
亚历山大 vs 约基奇：谁更应获得MVP？
考虑到约基奇已经多次出现在关于MVP的讨论中，让我们先礼貌地从谢伊的理由开始，这很简单。他是一位加拿大人，打出了NBA历史上最伟大的得分赛季之一，同时还带领一支球队有可能以接近70胜的战绩结束这个赛季。他每75回合34.38分的得分自1976年合并以来排名历史第四，而且谢伊+6.1%的相对真实命中率在排名前五的球员中也是最高的。
在谢伊上场时，雷霆队每百回合能净胜对手惊人的16.8分（98个百分位），进攻效率为124（96个百分位），防守效率为107.2（95个百分位）。当他下场时，雷霆队仍然能够净胜对手6.3分（81个百分位），防守效率为106.5（96个百分位），但他们的进攻效率却暴跌至112.8（40个百分位）。换句话说，虽然谢伊在一支非常优秀的球队中打球，但他却是雷霆队成为精英级别进攻球队的唯一原因，而且这些数据甚至没有考虑到当谢伊不在场时，对手会撤下他们最好的防守球员。
与此同时，“小丑”正在做着前所未见的事情。他即将成为历史上第三位能够在一个赛季中场均得到三双的球员，而且还是第一位在得分、助攻和篮板三项数据上都排名前三的球员，此前从未有人能在这三项数据上都排名前五。
如果这还不够，那么当约基奇离开球场时，掘金队简直就是一场灾难。在约基奇上场时，掘金队的百回合净胜分为+11.1（93个百分位），进攻效率为128.1（99个百分位），防守效率为116.9（34个百分位），但当他下场时，这些数据会暴跌至历史最差水平，百回合净胜分为-9.6（15个百分位），进攻效率为106.2（8个百分位），防守效率为115.8（44个百分位）。
即便如此，掘金队的情况也并没有数据所显示的那么糟糕。相比于俄克拉荷马雷霆队那种更加平均主义的球队风格，掘金队的比赛风格更加符合约基奇的优势和弱点，超过了任何其他球队为其球星所做的努力。然而，考虑到两支球队之间的天赋差距，我确实认为约基奇对于掘金队成功的重要性要高于谢伊对于雷霆队的重要性。这种差距是否足以解释俄克拉荷马雷霆队和丹佛掘金队之间17场比赛的胜场差是主观的，但我确实认为，考虑到约基奇打出的前所未有的数据，以及他比谢伊更加高效的事实：约基奇66.5%的真实命中率在联盟中排名第四，而谢伊的63.7%则排名第16，因此约基奇打出了一个更令人印象深刻的进攻赛季。
当然，篮球是双向的，因此这两位天才在防守端的贡献可能会成为决定谁更应该获得MVP的关键因素。
乍一看，防守效率可能会使这场讨论变得毫无意义，但数据并不能说明全部情况。由于效力于有史以来最具天赋的防守球队之一，对手往往会针对谢伊——不是因为他是一名糟糕的防守者，而是因为他恰好是最好的攻击目标。
这位超级球星后卫通常在单打中表现得非常好，他利用自己的臂展和移动能力来控制住自己的对手。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) April 6, 2025
谢伊在挡拆防守中也很专注，他知道何时应该换防，以及如何阻止对手获得优势。他是一名精英级别的防守组织者，知道何时应该冒险去争抢松散球，因此谢伊能够跻身联盟抢断榜前列（场均1.8次）也就不足为奇了。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) April 6, 2025
就我个人而言，我认为谢伊是一名优秀的防守者，但不是那种应该入选最佳防守阵容的球员。他当然为俄克拉荷马雷霆队历史级别的防守做出了贡献，但球队达到这个水平并非因为他。
约基奇的情况则更有趣。由于缺乏传统的“大个子”技能，他的防守多年来一直备受剖析，而且这些缺陷在今年比以往任何时候都更加明显。到目前为止，当约基奇成为主要防守者时，对手在篮筐周围的投篮命中率为69.8%，而联盟平均水平为66.3%。考虑到“大个子甜心”是一名糟糕的篮筐保护者——防守中最重要的一个方面——这对他整体的影响造成了巨大的打击，但防守远不止于此。
即使他的篮筐保护能力很差，丹佛队仍然只让对手30.8%的投篮发生在篮筐周围，这在联盟中排名第13位。这很大程度上要归功于掘金队的战术体系，但约基奇也发挥了重要作用，由于他的篮球智商，他不会经常受到攻击。
作为一名篮球天才，约基奇很少在防守端将自己置于不利的位置，因此对手无法攻击他的弱点。他还有非常积极的手，可以不断破坏对方的进攻，因此约基奇场均3.7次破坏球的次数在联盟中排名第三也就不足为奇了。
尼古拉·约基奇的挡拆防守非常出色。在这次挡拆中，他利用自己灵巧的手迫使哈利伯顿失误，从而让拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克得分。pic.twitter.com/LwGyqHDZvD
— Matt Brooks (@ MattBrooksNBA) April 7, 2025
约基奇聪明的站位和积极的手是他能在高阶数据中获得高分的原因之一。如果我们看一下最佳全能数据EPM，它将约基奇的防守评为+0.4，我认为这高估了他的影响力。这项数据过于重视抢断和盖帽等原始数据，同时难以区分篮筐保护等技能的重要性。
然而，它确实提供了一个有趣的快照，表明约基奇的防守并没有他非正统的特点所表现出来的那么糟糕。即便如此，约基奇糟糕的篮筐保护仍然使他在我看来成为一名略低于平均水平的防守者，无论他的聪明才智弥补了多少。
当然，这里最重要的因素是这两位球员是如何相互比较的。以EPM作为基准，谢伊（+8.7）和约基奇（+8.2）占据榜首位置并不令人意外。约基奇在进攻EPM方面领先（7.8 vs 7.0），但谢伊在防守方面却胜过他（1.7 vs 0.4）。不过，与约基奇的数据一样，鉴于谢伊作为一名后卫所获得的抢断和盖帽数量，我认为这个数字高估了他的影响力。
这场辩论中的另一个重要因素是位置的稀缺性。后卫和中锋天生就扮演着非常不同的角色，这严重影响了我们评估这些球员的方式。具体来说，约基奇的进攻影响力比谢伊的更有价值，因为他能够从一个通常是为终结者保留的位置来组织进攻。然而，拥有约基奇这样的组织核心迫使对方球队调整整个防守计划，以阻止这位7英尺高的传球天才，这自然会为他的队友创造机会。
当然，这意味着约基奇应该因为防守低于平均水平而受到更多惩罚，因为大个子球员对球队在防守端的表现好坏影响最大。对谢伊应用同样的逻辑也意味着，他的出色防守不会像其他位置那样产生那么大的影响，因为它来自后卫——防守端最不重要的位置。
那么，经过1200多个字，我们从中得出了什么结论？嗯……这太难决定了。在嘘声开始之前，让我投出我的选票，这样看起来我就不像是临阵退缩了。至少不会太像。
我仍然支持“大个子甜心”赢得他的第四个MVP。我知道他在防守端的局限性严重阻碍了丹佛队，但约基奇可以说正在打出有史以来最伟大的进攻赛季之一，而谢伊“仅仅”打出了迄今为止最伟大的赛季之一。他以各种可能的方式影响进攻的能力仍然是前所未有的，而且这种情况发生在一名中锋身上，更使其价值倍增。
仍然不相信吗？好吧，我给你留下这些：在约基奇上场时，掘金队的128.1进攻效率将是NBA历史上一个完整赛季的最高水平，而他们没有约基奇时的106.2进攻效率将在联盟中排名垫底。
如果这不是MVP的缩影，那么我不知道什么才是了。
常规赛只剩下一周了，是时候重新回顾一下圣安东尼奥马刺队在进入休赛期时阵容和薪资空间的情况了。Jeje像往常一样出色地完成了这项工作，毫无疑问，今年夏天对于圣安东尼奥来说将是一个有趣的夏天。
感谢阅读！
所有数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: Analyzing an MVP race for the ages
Around the NBA: Analyzing an MVP race for the ages
Shai and Jokic are both having all-time great seasons, so who deserves the MVP more?
In a season full of historic performances, two players stand out.
Nikola Jokic is somehow having the best year of his career after already winning three MVPs, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is singlehandedly keeping Canadians tuned into an American product.
So, will Big Honey reign supreme again, or will His Auraness officially be crowned MVP?
Let’s find out.
Shai vs Jokic: who deserves MVP more?
Given the number of times Jokic has been in this discussion, let’s be courteous and start with the case for Shai, which is quite simple. He’s Canadian having one of the greatest scoring seasons in NBA history while also spearheading a team that could end the season with a win total in the high 60s. His 34.38 points per game per 75 possessions ranks fourth all-time since the merger in 1976, and Shai’s +6.1% relative true shooting percentage is also the highest amongst the top five.
With Shai playing, the Thunder are outscoring teams by a ridiculous 16.8 points per 100 possessions (98th percentile), with a 124 ORTG (96th) and 107.2 DRTG (95th). When he sits, OKC still outscores opponents by 6.3 points (81st) with a 106.5 (96th) defensive rating, but their offensive ratings plummets to 112.8 (40th). In other words, while Shai plays on a very good team, he’s the sole reason why the Thunder are an elite offensive team, and those numbers don’t even account for the opposition sitting their best defensive players when Shai is off the court.
Meanwhile, the Joker is doing things that have never been seen before. He’s about to be third player ever to average a triple-double in a season, but also the first to be in the top three in points, assists, and rebounds per game, when no one has ever been top five in all three categories.
If that’s not enough, the Nuggets are a trainwreck whenever Jokic leaves the court. Denver has a +11.1 net rating (93rd percentile) with a 128.1 ORTG (99th) and 116.9 DRTG (34th) with Jokic playing, but those numbers drop to historically bad figures of a -9.6 net rating (15th) along with a 106.2 ORTG (8th) and 115.8 DRTG (44th).
Even so, the Nuggets aren’t as bad as those numbers indicate. Denver’s playstyle is tailored to Jokic’s strengths and weaknesses more than any other team does for its star, especially compared to an OKC squad that plays a much more egalitarian style. However, given the talent disparity between the two teams, I do believe that Jokic is more important to the Nuggets’ success than Shai is to the Thunder’s. Whether that difference is big enough to explain the 17-game gap between OKC and Denver’s record is subjective, but I do think it’s clear that Jokic is having a more impressive offensive season given the unprecedented numbers he’s putting up and the fact that he’s been even more efficient than Shai: Jokic’s 66.5% true shooting is fourth league-wide, while Shai’s 63.7% is 16th.
Of course, basketball is played at both ends, and so the defensive contributions from these two savants could be the determining factor in who’s more deserving of the MVP.
At first glance, the defensive ratings might make this discussion seem moot, but stats don’t tell the entire story. Playing on one of the most talented defensive teams ever, opponents tend to target Shai — not because he’s a poor defender, but simply due to him being the best option to attack.
The superstar guard usually holds up quite well in isolation, using his length and mobility to stay in front of his man.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) April 6, 2025
Shai’s also very attentive when put in actions, as he knows when to switch and to stop the opponent from gaining an advantage. He’s an elite defensive playmaker who knows when to gamble for loose balls, and it’s not surprising to see Shai amongst the league leaders in steals (averaging 1.8 per game).
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) April 6, 2025
Personally, I would consider Shai a good defender, but not someone who should make any All-Defense teams. He certainly contributes to OKC’s all-time great defense, but the team isn’t at that level because of him.
Jokic is a much more interesting case. His defense has been dissected for years due to his lack of traditional “big man” skills, and those deficiencies are more evident than ever this year. So far, opponents have shot 69.8% around the rim with Jokic being the primary defender when the league average has been 66.3%. Big Honey being a bad rim protector — the most important aspect of defense — puts a huge dent in his all-around impact, but defense is much more than just that.
Even with his poor rim protection, Denver is only letting 30.8% of opponent shots come around the basket, good for 13th league-wide. That’s largely due to the Nuggets’ scheme, but Jokic also plays a major part in not being frequently attacked due to his basketball IQ.
A basketball savant, Jokic rarely puts himself in bad position on defense, so opponents can’t attack his weaknesses. He also has very active hands that constantly break up plays, and it’s not surprising that Jokic’s 3.7 deflections per game rank third in the league.
Nikola Jokić’s pick-and-roll defense has been excellent. Up on this PnR to force a Haliburton turnover with his quick hands, leading to the Russell Westbrook bucket. pic.twitter.com/LwGyqHDZvD
— Matt Brooks (@ MattBrooksNBA) April 7, 2025
The Joker’s smart positioning and active hands are a few reasons why he grades so well in advanced numbers. If we look at the best all-in-one stat, EPM, it lists Jokic as a +0.4 on defense, which I believe overrates his impact. The stat places too much importance in raw numbers like steals and blocks while struggling to differentiate the importance of skills such as rim protection.
However, it does provide an interesting snapshot which argues that Jokic’s defense isn’t as bad as his unorthodox traits make him out to be. Even so, Jokic’s abysmal rim protection still makes him a slightly below-average defender in my books, regardless of how much his smarts make up for it.
Of course, the most important factor here is how the two players stack up against each other. Using EPM as a baseline, it’s not surprising to see Shai (+8.7) and Jokic (+8.2) occupying the top spots. Jokic leads in offensive EPM (7.8 vs 7.0), but Shai blows him out of the water in defense (1.7 vs 0.4). Like Jokic’s number, though, I believe that figure overrates Shai’s impact given the sheer number of steals and blocks he racks up, especially as a guard.
Another important factor in this debate is that of positional scarcity. Guards and centres have very different roles inherently, which heavily impacts how we evaluate these players. Specifically, Jokic’s offensive impact is more valuable than Shai’s because he’s able to run an offense from a position that’s usually reserved for play finishers. However, having a playmaking hub in Jokic forces opposing teams to adjust their entire defensive game plan to stop the 7-foot passing savant, which naturally opens up looks for his teammates.
Of course, this means that Jokic should be penalized more for being below-average defensively since big men make the largest impact on how good/bad a team is in their own end. Applying the same logic for Shai also means that his good defense wouldn’t make as big of an impact as other positions because it’s coming from a guard — the least important position on the defensive end.
So, after 1200+ words, what do we make of all this? Well… it’s too close to call. Before the booing commences, let me cast my vote, so that it doesn’t look like I’m chickening out. Not too much, at least.
I’m sticking with Big Honey to win his fourth MVP. I know his limitations on defense heavily hampers Denver, but Jokic is having arguably the greatest offensive season ever, whereas Shai is “only” having one of the greatest years to date. His ability to impact the offense in every possible way remains unprecedented, and for it to come from the centre position makes it all the more valuable.
Still not convinced? Well, I’ll leave you with this: the Nuggets’ 128.1 ORTG with Jokic playing would be the highest in NBA history over a full season, and their 106.2 rating without him would rank last in the league.
And if that’s not the epitome of an MVP, then I’m not sure what is.
With just a week remaining in the regular season, it’s time to refresh your memory on where the Spurs’ roster and cap stands heading into the offseason. Jeje does a great job of laying it all out as usual, and there’s no doubt that this summer will be an interesting one for San Antonio.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock