[PtR] NBA观察:2025年NBA奖项预测

By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-04-14 21:00:00

由生成式人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

NBA:洛杉矶湖人队对阵丹佛掘金队

随着常规赛接近尾声,是时候选出一些奖项的获得者了。

本赛季是近年来记忆中最疯狂的常规赛之一,这也意味着是时候就我们的奖项选择达成友好共识了。

考虑到这一点,如果我没有选择你最喜欢的球员/球队,请记住,那是因为我确实对他们有偏见,不希望看到他们成功。

玩笑归玩笑,我尽量保持公正,并根据数据和观察来做出这些选择。从这个意义上说,下面列出的名字是我认为应该获胜的人,而不是我认为会获胜的人。

让我们深入探讨一下。

最有价值球员

得主:尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)

亚军:谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), 扬尼斯·安特托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)

我上周写了一篇关于MVP的文章,并选择了约基奇而不是谢伊,但如果我说从那以后我的观点没有稍微动摇,那我就是在撒谎。我仍然坚持“大个子蜂蜜”,因为我认为他对球队的成功更加重要,而且当情况接近时,我通常会选择更好的球员。即便如此,这确实是一场掷硬币的比赛,谢伊也是一个非常值得的获胜者。

第三名的竞争也很激烈,最终归结为扬尼斯或塔图姆。与约基奇与谢伊的争论类似,扬尼斯对雄鹿队的成功更为重要,而且是更好的球员,即使波士顿在胜场方面遥遥领先。不过,我想给塔图姆一些赞扬,因为他的组织能力今年有了巨大的飞跃,现在他已经进入了与三位最终入围者的对话,这在过去几年里是不存在的。

最佳防守球员

得主:贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)

亚军:埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley), 德雷蒙德·格林(Draymond Green)

在维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)文班亚马大方地让其他球员争夺年度最佳防守球员的称号,直到他退役为止,剩下的候选人似乎就没有那么强大了。他们都有不错的理由获胜,但无论谁举起真正的奖杯,其理由都比过去的球员要弱得多。

我最终选择了JJJ。在赛季的大部分时间里,他都是领跑者(文班除外),直到孟菲斯最近的下滑,但他的全部表现仍然是最令人印象深刻的。与莫布里和德雷蒙德相比,JJJ的防守正负值最高(+6.9),限制对手在篮下的命中率最低(54%),并且上场时间也最长(2197分钟)。

此外,JJJ是他球队中影响最大的防守者,而莫布里还有另一个精英搭档贾莱特·阿伦,并且没有他的情况下,孟菲斯的防守效率(117.6)也比没有德雷蒙德的金州勇士队(113.5)差得多。

不过,德雷蒙德最近的竞选活动绝对预示着他未来将在政界有所作为。

进步最快球员

得主:戴森·丹尼尔斯(Dyson Daniels)

亚军:佩顿·普里查德(Payton Pritchard), 伊维察·祖巴茨(Ivica Zubac)

哦,有趣,这个奖项的存在受到了很多人的质疑。选择今年的获胜者比以往任何时候都更加令人沮丧,因为许多人想投票的球员(泰·杰罗姆)甚至没有资格。不过,仍然有一些值得关注的候选人,丹尼尔斯领跑。

在选择候选人时,我选择的球员的统计数据和影响力不仅仅与获得更多机会有关。所有这些球员都符合这一要求:丹尼尔斯和普里查德在尝试更多投篮的同时变得更加高效,而祖巴茨已经成为全防守级别的球员,并且是准全明星球员,而过去他“只是”一个优秀的先发球员。

在这三个人中,丹尼尔斯的进步最大。每个人都知道他可以成为一名精英防守者,但他的进攻进步更加突出:丹尼尔斯在各个方面都变得更加高效,即使他的场均出手次数增加了一倍以上,而且他的场均4.4次助攻也展现出了一些令人印象深刻的组织能力。

最佳新秀

得主:斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)

亚军:扎卡里·里萨谢(Zaccharie Risacher), 杰伦·威尔斯(Jaylen Wells)

天啊,我宁愿支付关税,也不愿从本赛季挑选一名最佳新秀。

我猜斯蒂芬·卡斯尔是“赢家”,但我不记得有哪个新秀赛季这么糟糕了。他和里萨谢在效率方面都远低于平均水平(卡斯尔的真实命中率比联盟平均水平低5%,里萨谢的真实命中率低2%),而且他们的球队在他们不在场上时也拥有更好的净效率。

不过,卡斯尔场均14.6/3.6/4.1分的原始数据仍然非常令人印象深刻,而且他从第一天起就在马刺队扮演着重要的角色,而里萨谢只是在过去几个月里才有所表现。卡斯尔多打了300分钟也给了他一个优势,尽管我不确定他们中的任何一个是否是持续发挥积极作用的球员。

最佳第六人

得主:马利克·比斯利(Malik Beasley)

亚军:佩顿·普里查德, 德安德烈·亨特(DeAndre Hunter)

这最终归结为比斯利与普里查德之间的较量,虽然我认为后者是一个更好的全能球员,但比斯利今年对底特律的影响更加令人印象深刻。

考虑一下:没有比斯利,活塞队只有31.2%的投篮来自三分线外(第2百分位),并且他们的命中率仅为35%(第29位)。当他上场时,这些数字飙升至39%(第54位)和37.4%(第65位),并且底特律的净效率也从比斯利不在场时的-1.2变为他在场时的+3.6。

因为普里查德在一支更好的球队中而没有更具影响力的指标而惩罚他是否公平?可能不是,但比斯利的投篮对于活塞队的成功至关重要,这迫使我打破了我的“更好球员”规则,并将奖项授予了他。

年度最佳教练

得主:肯尼·阿特金森(Kenny Atkinson)

亚军:J.B. 比克斯塔夫(J.B. Bickerstaff), 泰伦·卢(Tyronn Lue)

今年的年度最佳教练阵容是近年来最强大的之一。阿特金森和比克斯塔夫是仅有的“轻松”选择,而在卢、艾米·乌度卡(Ime Udoka)和马克·戴格诺特(Mark Daigneault)之间进行选择基本上是掷硬币。

首先,是获胜者。考虑到活塞队的胜场总数比去年增加了两倍多,我确实认真考虑过将比克斯塔夫放在首位。不过,这几乎与蒙蒂·“7850万美元”·威廉姆斯(Monty Williams)是一位糟糕的教练有关,而不是比克斯塔夫有多么出色。这并不是要否定后者,而是提醒我们,如果蒙蒂只是做了一份平均水平的教练工作,底特律去年本可以以两倍的胜场数结束比赛。

与此同时,阿特金森带领骑士队取得64场胜利并非巧合,也不是因为球员们更健康。他通过说服多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)扮演更小的角色并赋予莫布里更多的权力,从而重塑了他们的进攻。这不仅仅是要求这位大个子投更多的三分球:阿特金森有意识地将球放在他有利的位置,创造了错位,使克利夫兰队成为一支精英进攻球队。

对于第三名,我决定选择卢,因为他处理了快船队动荡的休赛期,并且需要在一年中途将科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)纳入阵容。很多人甚至不希望他们进入附加赛(当然不是我…只是不要查看我的季前预测),而且他们已经锁定了一个季后赛席位,这真是太不可思议了。话虽如此,选择乌度卡或戴格诺特也不会出错。

NBA最佳阵容

第一阵容:谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大, 杰森·塔图姆, 扬尼斯·安特托昆博, 埃文·莫布里, 尼古拉·约基奇

第二阵容:斯蒂芬·库里(Steph Curry), 杰伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson), 凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham), 安东尼·爱德华兹(Anthony Edwards), 贾伦·杰克逊

第三阵容:泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton), 多诺万·米切尔, 勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James), 杰伦·威廉姆斯(Jalen Williams), 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)

对于第一阵容的最后一个名额,受欢迎的选择是米切尔,但他甚至不是他自己球队中最具影响力的球员。对我来说,这个区别属于莫布里,他是年度最佳防守球员的热门人选,并且在进攻端取得了飞跃。

米切尔今年因牺牲投篮机会而值得称赞,但这并没有帮助他的效率。事实上,他57.5%的真实命中率略低于联盟平均水平,也是米切尔在犹他州最后一年的最差表现。甚至有人认为达里厄斯·加兰(Darius Garland)今年表现得比他更好,但米切尔的防守进步仍然让他进入了第三阵容。

第三阵容的最后一个名额也很难选择,最终哈利伯顿入选。是的,他今年的开局很慢,但他的挣扎被夸大了:自圣诞节以来,哈利伯顿场均得到19.6/3.6/9.6分,投篮命中率为50/42/86,场均失误仅为1.4次。这不像他2023-24赛季初那样令人震惊,但它确实揭示了哈利伯顿的真实天赋水平——一个NBA最佳球员的水平。

最佳防守阵容

第一阵容:阿门·汤普森(Amen Thompson), 吕冈茨·多尔特(Lu Dort), 德雷蒙德·格林, 贾伦·杰克逊, 埃文·莫布里

第二阵容:戴森·丹尼尔斯, 图马尼·卡马拉(Toumani Camara), 杰伦·威廉姆斯, 伊维察·祖巴茨, 鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)

由于一些中流砥柱的衰落,防守阵容的选择并不太困难:扬尼斯、布鲁克·洛佩斯(Brook Lopez)和巴姆·阿德巴约(Bam Adebayo)。第一阵容由当今最好的两名外线防守者(阿门和多尔特)以及三名年度最佳防守球员候选人组成。

与此同时,第二阵容有一些新面孔。丹尼尔斯和卡马拉今年在防守方面取得了最大的突破,而JDub是联盟中少数几个能够充分防守后卫和大个子的球员之一。最后两个名字是祖巴茨——他带领快船队取得了排名第三的防守——以及戈贝尔,他的防守数据与他去年获得年度最佳防守球员时的表现并没有太大差异。


随着常规赛正式结束,请查看Ricky O’Donnell’s的2025年模拟选秀!错过季后赛的球队的球迷仍然可以通过选秀抱有希望,对于那些俱乐部进入季后赛的球迷,我祝你们好运(当然,湖人队除外)。

感谢阅读!

所有统计数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass NBA Stats

点击查看原文:Around the NBA: 2025 NBA award picks

Around the NBA: 2025 NBA award picks

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

With the regular season coming to an end, it’s time to pick some award winners.

One of the craziest regular seasons in recent memory has come to a close, and that means it’s time to amicably agree on our award picks.

With that in mind, if I don’t select your favorite player/team, please remember that it’s because I do have an agenda against them and don’t want to see them succeed.

Jokes aside, I tried to be as impartial as possible to base these selections off of data and the eye test. In that sense, the names listed below are who I believe deserve to win rather than who I think will.

Let’s dive in.

Most Valuable Player

Winner: Nikola Jokic

Runner-ups: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo

I wrote about the MVP race last week and picked Jokic over Shai, but I would be lying if I said that my opinion didn’t waver slightly in the days since. I’m still sticking with Big Honey because I believe him to be more vital to his team’s success, and when it’s close, I usually go with the better player. Even so, this is truly a coin toss and Shai would be a very deserving winner, too.

The race for the third spot was tight as well, and it came down to Giannis or Tatum. Similar to the Jokic vs Shai argument, Giannis is simply more vital to the Bucks’ success and is the better player, even if Boston is laps ahead in wins. I do want to give Tatum some love, though, as his playmaking has taken a huge jump this year and he now belongs in the conversation with the three finalists, which wasn’t the case in years past.

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Runner-ups: Evan Mobley, Draymond Green

With Victor Wembanyama graciously letting other players fight for DPOY for the final time until he retires, the remaining pool of candidates seems a lot less formidable. They all have decent cases to win, but whoever lifts the actual trophy has a much weaker case than players of the past.

I ultimately went with JJJ. He was the frontrunner for most of the year (Wemby aside) until Memphis’ recent skid, but his full body of work is still the most impressive. Compared with Mobley and Draymond, JJJ has the biggest defensive on/off (+6.9), is holding opponents to shooting the lowest percent at the rim (54%), and has played the most minutes (2197) as well.

Moreover, JJJ is by far the most impactful defender on his team while Mobley has another elite running mate in Jarrett Allen, and Memphis’ defensive rating without him (117.6) is also much worse than Golden State’s without Draymond (113.5).

Draymond, though, definitely has a future in politics with the campaigning he’s done recently.

Most Improved Player

Winner: Dyson Daniels

Runner-ups: Payton Pritchard, Ivica Zubac

Oh fun, the award that many question the existence of. Choosing this year’s winner is even more frustrating than usual, given that the player many would like to vote for (Ty Jerome) isn’t even eligible. Still, there are other worthy candidates, with Daniels leading the pack.

In choosing candidates, I selected players whose stats and impact aren’t simply correlated with getting more opportunities. All these players fit that bill: Daniels and Pritchard have become more efficient even while attempting more shots, and Zubac has become an All-Defense level player and borderline All-Star when he was “just” a good starter in the past.

Out of the three, Daniels has made the biggest leap. Everyone knew that he could be an elite defender, but it’s his offensive improvements that stands out more: Daniels has become more efficient across the board even after his FGA per game more than doubled, and his 4.4 assists per game show some impressive playmaking chops too.

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Stephon Castle

Runner-ups: Zaccharie Risacher, Jaylen Wells

Goodness, I’d rather pay tariffs than have to pick a ROTY from this season.

I guess Stephon Castle is the “winner,” but I can’t ever remember a rookie class this bad. Both he and Risacher are well below average in terms of efficiency (Castle’s true shooting is 5% below the league average and Risacher’s is 2% lower), and their teams also have better net ratings when they’re off the court.

Still, Castle’s raw 14.6/3.6/4.1 splits are quite impressive and he’s had a sizable role on the Spurs from day 1, whereas Risacher has only come on in the past few months. That Castle’s played 300 more minutes also gives him an advantage, although I’m not sure if either of them are positive players on a consistent basis yet.

Sixth Man of the Year

Winner: Malik Beasley

Runner-ups: Payton Pritchard, DeAndre Hunter

This ultimately came down to Beasley vs Pritchard, and while I consider the latter to be a better all-around player, Beasley’s impact on Detroit this year has been more impressive.

Consider this: without Beasley, just 31.2% of the Pistons’ shots come from deep (2nd percentile) and they make just 35% of those attempts (29th). When he does play, those numbers skyrocket to 39% (54th) and 37.4% (65th), respectively, and Detroit also goes from having a -1.2 net rating with Beasley off to a +3.6 when he’s on.

Is it fair to punish Pritchard for not having more impactful metrics due to him being on a better team? Probably not, but Beasley’s shooting has been so vital to the Pistons’ success that it forced me to break my “better player” rule and award him instead.

Coach of the Year

Winner: Kenny Atkinson

Runner-ups: J.B. Bickerstaff, Tyronn Lue

This year’s COTY field is one of the deepest in recent memory. Atkinson and Bickerstaff were the only “easy” picks, and selecting between Lue, Ime Udoka, and Mark Daigneault was essentially a coin toss.

First, the winner. I legitimately considered Bickerstaff for the top spot, given that the Pistons have more than tripled their win total from last year. Still, that has almost as much to do with Monty “$78.5 million” Williams being a historically bad coach than Bickerstaff being great. That’s not to take anything away from the latter, but a reminder that Detroit could’ve finished with twice the amount of wins last year had Monty just done an average job coaching.

Meanwhile, Atkinson leading the Cavs to 64 wins isn’t by coincidence or better health. He’s reinvented their offense by persuading Mitchell to take a lesser role and empower Mobley more. It hasn’t simply been asking the big man to shoot more threes, either: Atkinson has deliberately put the ball in his hands in advantageous positions, creating mismatches that have turned Cleveland into an elite offense.

For the third spot, I decided to go with Lue due to how he’s handled the Clippers’ tumultuous last offseason and needing to implement Kawhi into the lineup halfway through the year. Many people didn’t even expect them to make the play-in (not me, of course… just don’t check my pre-season predictions), and for them to have locked up a playoff seed is incredible. With that said, you can’t go wrong with picking Udoka or Daigneault, either.

All-NBA Teams

1st Team: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Evan Mobley, Nikola Jokic

2nd Team: Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, Jaren Jackson Jr.

3rd Team: Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, LeBron James, Jalen Williams, Karl-Anthony Towns

The popular pick for the final 1st team spot is Mitchell, but he hasn’t even been the most impactful player on his own team. To me, that distinction belongs to Mobley, who’s the favorite for DPOY and has made a leap on offense.

Mitchell deserves credit for sacrificing shots this year, but that hasn’t helped his efficiency. In fact, his 57.5% true shooting is slightly below the league average and Mitchell’s worst mark since his final year in Utah. There’s an argument that even Garland’s been better than him this year, but Mitchell’s improved defense still lands him on the 3rd team.

The final spot on the 3rd team was also hard to pick, with Haliburton eventually making the cut. Yes, he had a slow start to the year, but his struggles have been overblown: since Christmas, Haliburton’s averaged 19.6/3.6/9.6 on 50/42/86 shooting and just 1.4 turnovers a game. It’s not as mindblowing as the start of his 2023-24 campaign, but it does reveal Haliburton’s true talent level — that of an All-NBA player.

All-Defensive Teams

1st Team: Amen Thompson, Lu Dort, Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley

2nd Team: Dyson Daniels, Toumani Camara, Jalen Williams, Ivica Zubac, Rudy Gobert

The defensive teams weren’t too tough to make due to the decline of a few mainstays: Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bam Adebayo. The 1st team is comprised of the two best perimeter defenders today (Amen and Dort) along with the three DPOY candidates.

Meanwhile, the 2nd team features a few newer faces. Daniels and Camara had the biggest defensive breakouts this year, while JDub is one of the few players in the league capable of adequately defending guards and bigs. The last two names are Zubac — who spearheaded the third-ranked defense with the Clippers — and Gobert, whose defensive metrics aren’t too different than his DPOY winning campaign last year.


With the regular season officially over, please check out Ricky O’Donnell’s 2025 mock draft! Fans of teams that missed the playoffs still have hope through the draft, and for those whose club made it, I wish you the best of luck (outside of the Lakers, of course).

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.

By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock