By Jeph Duarte / Pounding The Rock, 2026-10-17 19:00:00
圣安东尼奥马刺队前战略研究副总裁柯克·戈兹贝里 (Kirk Goldsberry) 最近发布了这张图表。
kirkgoldsberry：这是一场年轻人的比赛，而且趋势愈发明显。目前超过80%的NBA球员年龄在29岁或以下。以往并非总是如此，但节奏与空间篮球的结合，加上我们普遍认为老球员欠缺的耐用性，导致NBA变得越来越年轻。很快这里就会变成50岁的勒布朗和500个23岁年轻人的天下了！
“这是一场年轻人的比赛，而且趋势愈发明显。目前超过80%的NBA球员年龄在29岁或以下。以往并非总是如此，但节奏与空间篮球的结合，加上我们普遍认为老球员欠缺的耐用性，导致NBA变得越来越年轻。很快这里就会变成50岁的勒布朗和500个23岁年轻人的天下了！”
戈兹贝里是现代篮球领域的专家，擅长剖析这项运动的演变历程。除了在马刺任职的经历外，他还在2012年至2015年间为比尔·西蒙斯 (Bill Simmons) 创立的ESPN旗下博客 Grantland 撰稿。他的其他著名作品还包括《科比式助攻》（The Kobe Assist）、《詹皇的进化》（The Evolution of King James）以及《数据篮球》（DataBall）。他在2019年出版的《散开的球场：NBA新纪元视觉漫游》（SprawlBall: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA）一书中，深入探讨了从合理冲撞区到三分线之间区域投篮的低效性。
尽管这项运动已向年轻化倾斜，但戈兹贝里并未深入探究这一转变背后的根本原因。究竟是比赛节奏让球员在更早的年龄就消耗殆尽？人们普遍认为，负荷管理和现代医疗保障本可以让球员拥有更长的职业寿命。那么，为何现实却并非如此？
也许，选拔和签下更年轻球员的倾向，迎合了各支球队确立的“赢在当下”心态。与此相伴的，是在还没给球队留出充分成长时间的情况下，频繁更换主教练。
无论原因何在，球员们进入联盟的年龄更小了——即大学篮球的“读一年就走 (one and done)”效应——而离开联盟的时间也更早了。想想前马刺得分后卫朗尼·沃克四世 (Lonnie Walker IV)。27岁的他，已经在七个赛季里辗转了四支球队。如今刚满27岁，他在NBA的生涯似乎就已走到了尽头。他依然可以在海外赛场拥有一段漫长且成功的职业生涯（事实上，他两天前刚刚与土耳其篮球超级联赛的贝西克塔斯队签约）。
七年的时间，似乎足以全面评估一名球员的NBA职业生涯。然而，究竟是他的年龄影响了他在NBA立足的能力，还是评估仅仅基于天赋？
对更多球员进行考察或许能让我们看清更全貌的图景。但就目前而言，必须指出的是，现在的球员已经不再拥有四分之一个世纪前那样充裕的成长时间了。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Open Thread: How age impacts ever-changing landscape of the NBA
Open Thread: How age impacts ever-changing landscape of the NBA
San Antonio Spurs former vice president for strategic research Kirk Goldsberry recently posted this graphic.
kirkgoldsberry: It’s a young man’s game, and increasingly so. Over 80% of the NBA is now 29 or younger. This hasn’t always been the case but the combination of pace and space basketball with the lack of durability we associate with older players has resulted in the NBA getting younger and younger. Pretty soon it’s just gonna be 50 year-old LeBrob and 500 23 year-olds!
“It’s a young man’s game, and increasingly so. Over 80% of the NBA is now 29 or younger. This hasn’t always been the case but the combination of pace and space basketball with the lack of durability we associate with older players has resulted in the NBA getting younger and younger. Pretty soon it’s just gonna be 50 year-old LeBron and 500 23 year-olds!”
Goldsberry is an expert of the modern game, differentiating how the game has evolved. In addition to his time with the Spurs, he wrote for Grantland, the ESPN blog brainchild of Bill Simmons, from 2012-2015. Other notable writings include The Kobe Assist, The Evolution of King James, and DataBall. His 2019 book SprawlBall: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA commented on the inefficiency of shots taken from the restricted area to the three-point line.
While the game has skewed younger, Goldsberry doesn’t delve into the rationale for the shift. Is it the pace of the game wearing players out at an earlier age? It’s commonly accepted that load management and modern healthcare allows for players to have longer careers. So why are they not?
Perhaps the propensity to draft and sign younger players feeds into the “win now” mentality that franchises have established. It pairs with the hiring and firing of coaches without allowing time for a team to fully develop.
Whatever the reason, players are entering the league younger — the “one and done” collegiate effect — and exiting the league sooner. Think of former Spurs shooting guard Lonnie Walker IV. At age 27, he’s played on four teams over seven seasons. Now, at age 27, it looks as if his time in the NBA is over. He can still have a long and prosperous career overseas (in fact, he just signed with Beşiktaş of the Turkish Basketbol Süper Ligi two days ago).
Seven years seems to a fair amount of time to analyze a player’s NBA career. But is it his age relevant to his ability to play in the NBA, or is he being assessed solely on talent?
A look at many players could yield a clearer picture. For now, it’s important to note that players do not have the time to develop that they did a quarter century ago.
By Jeph Duarte / Pounding The Rock