[The Athletic] 2026-27赛季最可能风起云涌的NBA巨星处境盘点

By Sam Amick / The Athletic, 2026-10-17 17:07:59

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2026-27赛季的NBA战幕即将拉开,首批三场常规赛揭幕战将于周二打响。新赛季伊始,联盟顶尖巨星们的故事线也迎来了全面翻新。

谁能在接下来的赛季中主导联盟格局?他们又必须在错综复杂的内外部局势中如何破局?

提醒一下,这并不是一份潜在MVP候选人的实力榜单。这篇文章关注的是那些身处微妙、动态局势中,且整个赛季都会被置于聚光灯下的巨星们。在我看来,以下五位球星的处境最为引人入胜,文末还附带了几位值得关注的提名人选。

卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)

纽约尼克斯队早就预料到,围绕唐斯合同问题所引发的尴尬局面迟早会到来。

在夺冠征程中,他们设法压制了这一话题的发酵,并维持了良好的团队氛围。唐斯作为球队升级后进攻体系的核心枢纽,一路率领纽约挺进总决赛,并最终与圣安东尼奥马刺队狭路相逢。客观来看,正是唐斯——而非球队基石杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)——成为了总决赛前那波势如破竹的冲刺主推力,并最终为尼克斯带来了53年来的首座总冠军奖杯。

因此,当双方坐到谈判桌前谈及具体金额,而尼克斯老板詹姆斯·多兰 (James Dolan) 坚守不触发第二土豪线的立场,从而导致如今的公开僵局时,30岁的唐斯不愿意少拿一分钱也就完全在情理之中了。据跟队记者詹姆斯·L·爱德华兹三世 (James L. Edwards III) 报道,尼克斯开出的四年期报价“总额接近2亿美元”——这与他有资格签下的顶薪合同相比,足足少了约7600万美元。值得一提的是,唐斯在下赛季拥有价值6100万美元的球员选项。

考虑到唐斯在某一年夏天还可能被用来交易扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo),到了第二年夏天就一跃成为历史性总冠军的胜负手,他坚持索要更多报酬也就不足为奇了。尤其是回顾我们的记者乔恩·克劳琴斯基 (Jon Krawczynski) 在近期关于唐斯的报道中分享的一则1月中旬的轶事后,就更能理解了:

“当时我们正在Zillow房产网站上看密尔沃基的房子,”唐斯谈到当时尼克斯与雄鹿就阿德托昆博展开交易流言期间,他与妻子乔迪恩物色新住所时的情景,“我说,‘嘿,宝贝,我在城里转了转,其实还不错,这里可能挺适合安家的。’”

而那不过是短短10个月前的事。

但如果尼克斯和唐斯能在登顶NBA巅峰的路上克服那种如履薄冰的尴尬,我们就有理由相信他们这次依然能做到。这套搭档最美好的特质丝毫未减,这位新泽西少年荣归故里,为自己儿时支持的主队创造了历史。唐斯的过人之处在于,即便身处如此微妙的背景之下,他依然能够展现出最好的自己,不仅打破了僵局,更为这支联盟新科卫冕冠军注入了坚实的底气。

上赛季的一些熟悉因素仍将保留:主教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 预计会继续协调球员间的人际关系,而唐斯也需要为了彼此的共同成功将商业层面的考量暂时搁置。但随着圣安东尼奥马刺、俄克拉荷马城雷霆、费城76人以及众多潜在竞争对手的强势崛起,这一局面无疑值得所有人再度密切关注。

扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)

这一刻终于还是发生了。

在经历了多年对离队的权衡与观望后,阿德托昆博最终离开了密尔沃基,加盟迈阿密热火,以此追逐那座在雄鹿显然已遥不可及的第二座总冠军奖杯。上一次热火引进这种级别的超级巨星时,那位球星曾因在总冠军预测上夸下海口而备受指摘。但可以肯定的是,“不是一个,不是两个,不是三个,不是四个……”这样的话绝不会从阿德托昆博嘴里说出来。他深知前路何其艰险,尤其是在如今这支各路豪强枕戈待旦的东部联盟之中。

联盟各界对热火上限的质疑根深蒂固,最近由NBA官网公布的一年一度总经理调查便是最佳明证。尽管73%的总经理认为阿德托昆博是休赛期最具影响力的引援,但这批总经理却将迈阿密排在东部第七位(与印第安纳步行者并列)。作为参考,热火上赛季的战绩仅位列东部第十(43胜39负)。

退一步讲,看到一个重焕活力的字母哥在迈阿密全力以赴,至少会极具观赏性——当然,这对他的对手们来说除外。尤其是现在他身体健康,并且终于得到了球队高层的出场许可。


阿德托昆博身披崭新热火战袍。(Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)

上赛季由于种种原因,他仅出战了36场比赛,其中有些是身体伤病(腹股沟、脚踝、膝盖和小腿伤势),而有些,嗯……则是战术性的。摆烂的雄鹿因在赛季后半段对他的使用方式而遭到了联盟调查。尽管联盟最终并未对他们施加处罚,但整个风波彻底印证了阿德托昆博寻求全新起点的时刻早已到来。

与尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 一样,31岁的阿德托昆博是如此伟大,以至于如果他的职业生涯仅有一座总冠军,似乎与他的篮球宿命并不相符。然而,正如同他即将体会到的那样,篮球是一项团队运动,要想让所有拼图各司其职并朝着共同目标迈进,从来都不是一件简单的事。

人们对热火的后场组合(达维昂·米切尔 (Davion Mitchell) 和克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson)),以及主教练埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra) 能否在两位顶级内线(阿德托昆博和巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo))之间最大化组织串联能力,抱有合理的质疑。他们将迎来一个怎样的安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins)?球队是否有足够的投射来拉开空间(新援小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 显然在此有所助益)?诸如此类的问题不一而足。

然而,正如我们的热火跟队记者兼资深阿德托昆博观察员埃里克·内姆 (Eric Nehm) 近期所写的那样,他们的潜力在季前赛中已展露无遗。考虑到阿德托昆博即使在雄鹿最艰难的岁月里也始终保持着满负荷运转,我们完全有理由相信,当热火的崭新篇章正式揭幕时,他定会全力以赴。这种好胜心,结合如今围绕着他的著名“热火文化”,注定会让他们的比赛成为全联盟不可错过的焦点大戏。

维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)

如果你注意到了本次讨论的核心主旨,就会明白一个道理:无论一名球员多么超凡绝伦,单凭一己之力是无法夺得总冠军的。是的,对于文班亚马来说同样如此。

即便他如今可能已经是全联盟最具影响力的球员。

只要保持健康,他在未来十年内几乎注定会是MVP的有力争夺者。当然,没有人应该把这视为理所当然,但残酷的现实在于,如果他想彻底接管这个联盟,仅凭个人能力是远远不够的。文班亚马哪怕年仅22岁,也需要用他那已被证明极其出色的领袖才能,去激发身边的每一个人。

马刺核心阵容内部的微妙平衡非常脆弱。老将后卫达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在总决赛中被视作背锅侠,自那之后,全联盟关于马刺需要交易他以扶正年轻新星斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的呼声愈演愈烈。哈珀此前向《GQ》杂志公开发难,声称自己的第六人生涯已经彻底结束(尽管他后来又改口回到了“只要能帮球队赢球,我愿意做任何事”的说辞),这无疑进一步激化了矛盾。

马刺管理层自身从未赞同过“福克斯是多余之人”的说法,相反,他们一直明确表示对这位28岁的两届全明星球员充满信心并持续投入。他们肯定也希望大家记住这样一个细节:很多人似乎都忘了,福克斯在西决对阵俄克拉荷马城时遭遇了严重的高位脚踝扭伤,随后在对阵尼克斯的总决赛中完全是忍着剧痛坚持带伤作战。不过,那些都已成为过去。

正如我们的马刺专家贾里德·韦斯 (Jared Weiss) 所详述的那样,现在的焦点落在了他们在季前赛中尝试的潜在解决方案上:一套让他们三人同时担任首发的三后卫阵容。这是否是最明智的选择尚待观察,但三年级主帅米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 愿意尝试如此不合常规的方案,本身就充分说明了球队对维系更衣室和谐的迫切需求。

然而,在马刺更衣室里,文班亚马比任何人都更有能力化解这类球场上的紧张气氛。凭借他的球技、他的性格,以及他的强大气场。

他在今年夏天的提前续约中展现了极高的无私风范,主动放弃了大约5000万美元的薪金空间,以便马刺在未来拥有更多灵活性来构建阵容轮换。虽然对于一个在NBA仍相对算初出茅庐的年轻人来说,要求未免苛刻,但他在职业生涯前三个赛季里本就一直在不断创造奇迹。我们没有任何理由怀疑他无法带领马刺跨过这道坎。

勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)

76人签下勒布朗·詹姆斯,可绝不是为了给他办一场退役巡演。再隆重的排场和仪式,也无法帮助他们为这群嗷嗷待哺(且脾气难免暴躁)的球迷带来罗纳德·里根总统时代(大约1983年)以来的首座总冠军奖杯。

同理,关于他的直升机通勤、他的Polymarket商业合作,或是训练营期间据传因乔尔·恩比德训练迟到而对其进行的训诫(詹姆斯对此予以否认)的纷争,也对争冠毫无益处。

不,当他们在7月下旬击败迈阿密、明尼苏达、金州和克利夫兰,在这场夏天最引人注目(也是历时最久)的争夺战中胜出、震惊整个篮球界时,他们想要签下的是那个真正的勒布朗·詹姆斯。那个被公认为史上最伟大球员之一(甚至没有之一)的41岁老将,上赛季不仅依旧入选了全明星,还在没有卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 的情况下率领湖人队在季后赛首轮淘汰了休斯敦火箭队。能将这样的球员加入到原本就拥有泰雷斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)、乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 的豪华阵容中,足以让他们重新回到争冠讨论的中心。

然而,正如76人在赛季初期就已经体会到的那样,与詹姆斯联手就意味着必须承受围绕在他身边无休止的场外噪音。即便你只是以一份老将底薪签下了他。这些噪音有些源于他自身,但大部分并非他所能掌控。无论如何,这都给这套本就面临着“他能否跑赢时光老人”天然疑问的合作关系,增添了一层充满挑战的复杂性。

外界有理由怀疑,詹姆斯能否在某种程度上保持顶级水准,或者他能否及时融入76人的其余核心阵容并建立起至关重要的化学反应。除了这些不可避免的未知数之外,残酷的现实在于,这支76人必须抵御这种顶尖天赋和鲜明个性聚集时所不可避免带来的分心与内耗威胁。

当然,詹姆斯以及他所带来的一切,仅仅是这幅复杂拼图的一部分。恩比德的健康状况(或者说出勤率堪忧的现实)是一个老生常谈的话题;布朗在波士顿效力多年后,能否适应费城苛刻挑剔的环境,同样是亟待观察的重点;老将们是否能确保为年轻新星腾出施展拳脚的空间?

这些全都是主教练尼克·纳斯 (Nick Nurse) 需要解决的问题。然而,抛开所有的喧嚣与炒作,76人能否将詹姆斯的作用发挥到极致,或许才是其中最具决定性的胜负手。

尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)

丹佛掘金队恐怕很不希望约基奇出现在这样的榜单上。

毕竟,这位31岁的常规赛三料MVP在9月下旬公开宣布自己将长留丹佛,彻底终结了关于他未来的所有猜测。“小丑”甚至还半开玩笑地打趣道,他计划在明年夏天签下提前续约合同,“如果他们还要我的话”。

快讯速递:他们绝对抢着要他。

所以……这还有什么好讨论的呢?!大错特错。

随着约基奇在NBA的下家基本(非官方地)尘埃落定,围绕他的讨论焦点便从合同问题全面转移到了赛场表现上。简而言之,问题核心在于:这支掘金队上赛季的大部分阵容深度在经历了一年前休赛期的强力引援后如今几乎流失殆尽,距离约基奇时代的唯一一座总冠军也已过去整整四个赛季,他们还能否重返争冠行列,不负这位备受爱戴的当家内线所做出的坚守决定?无论是否受到合同绑约,这都是约基奇级别的超级巨星所不可妥协的底线诉求。他的卓越早已超越了甘居平庸的可能。

在某种程度上,如果无法建立在一支具备实质威胁的争冠球队的基础之上,他的个人光芒就会失去应有的分量。这也是上赛季令人感到困惑的地方:由乔恩·华莱士 (Jon Wallace) 和本·坦泽 (Ben Tenzer) 领衔的新管理层所引进的卡梅隆·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson)、小蒂姆·哈达威和布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown),在纸面上看起来堪称完美。


尼古拉·约基奇 (Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)

约基奇一如既往地打出了顶尖水准,场均轰下27.7分,同时领跑全联盟的场均篮板(12.9个)和助攻(10.7次),并在常规赛MVP评选中名列第二(仅次于俄克拉荷马城雷霆队实现连庄的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander))。然而,尽管丹佛在常规赛收官阶段打出一波12连胜、最后17战15胜并拿下54胜,但他们在季后赛首轮苦战六场饮恨不敌森林狼,对他们在西部格局中的地位无疑是一次沉重的打击。而目睹那支森林狼在次轮被文班亚马和他的马刺队挑落马下,更进一步印证了掘金与联盟顶级强队之间的差距正在拉大。

正因如此,未来的几个月既充满关键意义,又着实扑朔迷离。从纸面阵容来看,很多方面都难言乐观,24岁的前锋佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 在8月份通过先签后换加盟克利夫兰,招致了外界的广泛批评。掘金上赛季防守效率仅排在联盟第21位,而为了帮助克伦克家族节省奢侈税开支,球队竟然放走了一位年轻、全能且兼具得分爆发力的防守悍将,这显然无法让球迷群体买账。平心而论,掘金在这笔交易中从骑士换来了一个2031年不受保护的首轮签,到了2月份的交易截止日临近时,这个选秀权很可能会被摆上货架,作为换取某种阵容升级的筹码。

也许阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 能保持健康,贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 能重返全明星水准;也许德马尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 即便已经37岁,仍能用他的组织串联和稳定得分赋予球队全新的维度;又或许阿尔法·迪亚洛 (Alpha Diallo) 在季前赛防守端的亮眼表现,预示着这位在夏天以一年底薪加盟的29岁欧洲联赛球星能够大放异彩,而新援马文·巴格利三世 (Marvin Bagley III) 也能扮演关键角色。

但对于约基奇和他的掘金队来说,最残酷的现实在于:面对马刺、俄克拉荷马城、明尼苏达、休斯敦甚至湖人(如果JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick) 的话靠谱的话)的群雄环伺,即便把这些潜能全发挥出来,也未必足以让他们脱颖而出。

值得关注的提名人选

科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)

在快船生涯深陷争议并画上句号后,伦纳德在多伦多又抱有怎样的……雄心抱负?如果他能复制上赛季在洛杉矶的状态——在身处联盟历史上最严重的规避工资帽调查风暴中心的同时,依然出战65场比赛并交出统治级表现——那么这支猛龙队或许真有足够底气与东部顶尖强权一较高下。对于快船老板史蒂夫·鲍尔默 (Steve Ballmer) 和他的管理团队来说,这无疑又是一颗难以下咽的苦果:伦纳德在联盟的最终裁决中基本全身而退,快船却不得不批准这笔重聚交易,将他礼送出境。

贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant)

莫兰特在波特兰开拓者的初期体验反响非常积极,但一个战术层面的两难困境仍然存在,并对这种皆大欢喜的氛围构成了实质威胁。与马刺极为相似的是,开拓者同样拥有三名高水准后卫:莫兰特、达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 和朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday),而他们都不习惯在如此拥挤的后场空间中分享球权。再加上22岁的斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson)(2023年选秀探花)在季前赛表现抢眼,这对菜鸟主帅米卡·诺里 (Micah Nori) 来说无疑是一个棘手的难题。

27岁的两届全明星莫兰特在经历了孟菲斯的跌宕岁月后,于7月初被交易至波特兰,他极度渴望在这个赛季实现自我救赎。然而,“玫瑰之城”的后场拥堵是实打实的:利拉德因左跟腱撕裂缺席了整个上赛季后终于迎来回归;霍勒迪在攻防两端仍具备顶级水准;而亨德森也在拼命追逐属于自己的篮球梦想。与此同时,诺里手中拿着的还是一份仅包含一年保障金额的合同,他必须在这种微妙的处境中执掌教鞭,因为新老板汤姆·邓顿 (Tom Dundon) 坚信精打细算、能省则省才是通往成功的必由之路。

杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)

底特律活塞队度过了一个极其混乱的夏天,混乱到几乎让人忘记了他们曾是上赛季的东部常规赛冠军,并以队史近二十年来的最佳战绩(60胜22负)收官,随后在次轮惜败于克利夫兰。

自由球员市场上托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris) 的出走、与孟菲斯关于以赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 的交易,以及与杜伦持续了整个休赛期的拉锯式续约谈判,都让球队面临着战绩滑坡的真实风险。一些竞争对手的高管甚至开始揣测,如果球队阵容未能朝着正确的方向发展,当家球星凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 会对自己的长期未来产生怎样的动摇。

然而,尽管过程一地鸡毛,活塞最终还是以一份五年2亿美元的大合同锁定了这位22岁的中锋,这意味着这套核心班底——以及他们未来的薪资灵活性——得以完整保留(23岁的前锋奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 同样签下了长约)。而此前曾明确表达在续约谈判中感受到被怠慢的杜伦阵营,似乎已准备好将这股怨气转化为再度冲击全明星的动力,这从他在季前赛的表现中便可见一斑。正如我们的活塞跟队记者亨特·帕特森 (Hunter Patterson)在此分析所言,他在周三对阵明尼苏达的上半场便狂砍24分,这充分表明他已经准备好配得上这份新合同,并带领球队重整旗鼓、再度向前迈进。

拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball)

激起外界对这支全新森林狼抱有强烈好奇心的,绝不仅仅是因为其观赏属性。但是,蒂姆·康奈利 (Tim Connelly) 决定在6月下旬与夏洛特的交易中,将当今篮坛最具观赏性的年轻巨星之一(安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards))与最具难以捉摸特质的球星之一(鲍尔)组合在一起,单是这一点就足以让比赛充满看点。正如我们的记者乔恩·克劳琴斯基在关于这位联盟中最敢于下注的高管的专访中所写的那样,这完全是一笔典型的“康奈利式”操作。

除此之外,这更是25岁的鲍尔证明自己上赛季在黄蜂的成长并非昙花一现的绝佳契机。尽管他在年轻球迷群体中拥有极高的人气,其令人瞠目结舌的精彩集锦在社交媒体上随处可见,但全联盟的球探直到上赛季后半段才真正开始相信,鲍尔终于领悟了该如何赢下比赛。

从1月22日开始,夏洛特打出了28胜10负的战绩,净效率值高达+10.8,在全联盟仅次于圣安东尼奥马刺。在此期间,鲍尔场均贡献20.7分、6.8次助攻、4.6个篮板,仅有2.5次失误,其个人净效率值(+8.8)在同期仅次于布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller)(+9.1)位列全队第二。这样的表现为未来的前景带来了无限遐想,由爱德华兹、鲍尔、杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)、新援乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 以及鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 组成的首发五虎,将成为全联盟最令人期待的先发阵容之一。

杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)

马刺在西部决赛通过抢七大战险胜雷霆,胜利含金量毋庸置疑,尤其考虑到圣安东尼奥在头两场比赛中还缺少了因踝伤缺阵的福克斯。然而,雷霆队内一位全明星球员在七场系列赛中几乎全程作壁上观的事实,却在赛后的媒体舆论中被普遍忽视了。

25岁的威廉姆斯曾在2025年对阵印第安纳的总决赛中打出了惊艳表现,一路助力雷霆成功问鼎总冠军。但在此番对阵圣安东尼奥的系列赛中,他由于腿筋伤势实际上只完整出战了第1场比赛(他在第2场和第6场曾尝试带伤复出,但均以失败告终)。那是雷霆整个赛季最痛彻心扉的插曲,威廉姆斯(受困于手腕和腿筋伤势)在常规赛仅仅出战了33场比赛,在季后赛出场时间超过20分钟的比赛更是只有区区三场。不过如今他已重回健康,展现出十足的战力,时刻准备帮助雷霆夺回被马刺夺走的一切。

在威廉姆斯养伤期间,雷霆队内发生了一些变化,卡森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace)、阿贾伊·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 和贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 都已做好准备,乐于围绕着亚历山大的核心打法全力辅佐。但雷霆在去年夏天以一份最高可达2.87亿美元的五年顶薪合同提前锁定威廉姆斯,其战术蓝图本就是让他扮演亚历山大这位“蝙蝠侠”身旁不可或缺的“罗宾”。但愿他能保持足够的健康,再度挑起这一重担。

由生成式 AI 翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

查看原文:These NBA superstar situations have the potential to be the spiciest in 2026-27

These NBA superstar situations have the potential to be the spiciest in 2026-27

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The 2026-27 NBA season is upon us, with the first three regular-season openers tipping off Tuesday. And with a new year comes a swell of fresh storylines for some of the game’s biggest stars.

Who might shape the season ahead? And what are the complicated dynamics they’ll need to navigate in doing so?

This isn’t a ranking of would-be MVP candidates, mind you. This is about stars in dynamic situations whom we’ll be watching closely all season. Here are the five most fascinating ones, in my opinion, with some honorable mentions to boot.

Karl-Anthony Towns

The New York Knicks knew the discomfort surrounding Towns’ contract situation was coming.

They managed to suppress the storyline and keep the vibes high during the title run, with Towns propelling New York to the NBA Finals as the hub of their evolved offense en route to the San Antonio Spurs matchup at the end. By all objective accounts, it was Towns — and not franchise centerpiece Jalen Brunson — who was the driving force behind that pre-finals push that led to their first title in 53 years.

So when the time came to talk numbers, and Knicks owner James Dolan took the no-second-apron stance that led to this public impasse, it came as no surprise that the 30-year-old Towns wasn’t looking to leave a pile of money on the table. Per beat writer James L. Edwards III, the Knicks’ four-year offer is “close to $200 million in total” — approximately $76 million shy of the deal he’s eligible to land. Towns, to review, has a $61 million player option for next season.

Considering how Towns went from being the guy who might get traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo one summer to becoming the X-factor in a historic championship the next, no one should be surprised that he’s holding out for more. Especially after the anecdote that our Jon Krawczynski shared from mid-January in his recent piece on Towns:

“We were on Zillow looking at Milwaukee,” Towns said about looking for a possible new home with his wife, Jordyn, amid rumors of a Knicks-Bucks deal for Antetokounmpo at the time. “Like, ‘Hey, babe, I went around town, and it’s not that bad. This could be a good spot right here.’”

That was just 10 months ago.

But if the Knicks and Towns managed to move past that crunchiness on the way to the NBA’s mountaintop, there’s reason to believe they can do it again this time around. Nothing has changed about the best parts of this pairing, with the Jersey kid having come home to make history with the franchise he grew up rooting for. And to Towns’ credit, his ability to be his best self despite this nuanced backdrop is what forced the issue here and fortified the league’s latest champion.

Some of the familiar elements from last season will remain, with coach Mike Brown expected to handle the player politics and Towns needing to compartmentalize the business component for the sake of their shared success. But with the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and so many other would-be contenders coming on strong, it’s a situation that’s certainly worth monitoring. Again.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

It finally happened.

After all those years of eyeing the exits, Antetokounmpo made the move out of Milwaukee and headed to the Miami Heat in pursuit of a second title that was surely going to elude him with the Bucks. The last time the Heat landed a star of this magnitude, that aforementioned individual made the mistake of looking too far ahead with his championship predictions. But rest assured, the phrase “Not one, not two, not three, not four …” will not be crossing Antetokounmpo’s lips. He knows how hard this is going to be, especially in this Eastern Conference that is suddenly loaded for bear.

The skepticism around the league about the Heat’s ceiling runs deep, with no better proof of that fact than the annual GM survey that was recently published by NBA.com. While 73% of the GMs deemed the Antetokounmpo the most impactful offseason addition of them all, Miami was ranked just seventh in the East by those same GMs (tied with Indiana). As a reminder, they had the 10th-best record in the East last season (43-39).

At minimum, the prospect of seeing a re-energized Giannis trying to meet this Miami moment should be wildly entertaining — for everyone but his opponents, anyway. Especially now that he’s healthy and allowed to play by his employers.


Giannis Antetokounmpo suits up for the new-look Heat. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)

He logged just 36 games for a variety of reasons last season, some of them physical (groin, ankle, knee and calf issues) and some, um, strategic. The tanking Bucks were investigated by the league for how they handled the back end of his campaign. And while there was no action taken against them, that entire saga confirmed why the time had long since come for Antetokounmpo to seek a new start.

Like Nikola Jokić, the 31-year-old Antetokounmpo is so great that the notion of him winning just one title seems incongruent with his basketball destiny. Then again, as he’s about to be reminded, this team game can be tricky when it comes to making all of the pieces work in pursuit of the common goal.

There is fair skepticism about the Heat’s guard play (Davion Mitchell and Klay Thompson) and how coach Erik Spoelstra can maximize the playmaking between his two elite bigs (Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo). Which Andrew Wiggins will they get? Is there enough shooting to provide spacing (newcomer Tim Hardaway Jr. certainly helps there)? That sort of stuff.

Yet as our Heat beat writer and resident Antetokounmpo chronicler Eric Nehm wrote recently, their potential has been evident even in the preseason. And considering Antetokounmpo kept his engine on red even in the worst of times with the Bucks, it’s safe to assume he’ll be raring to go when this new Miami chapter officially tips off. That reality, coupled with the famed Heat culture that now surrounds him, should make for must-see NBA TV.

Victor Wembanyama

If you’ve noticed a theme in this discussion, it’s that one player — no matter how transcendent — is simply not enough to win it all. And yes, that goes for Wembanyama too.

Even if he might already be the most impactful player in the game.

Health permitting, it seems inevitable that he’ll be on the MVP short list for the next decade. No one should take that part for granted, of course, but the harsh reality is that it’s not enough if he’s going to complete this takeover of the league. Wembanyama, even at the ripe age of 22, needs to empower everyone around him with those leadership skills that have already proven to be elite.

The dynamics within the Spurs core are delicate, with veteran guard De’Aaron Fox having been deemed the fall guy in the finals and the league-wide chatter growing louder since then about the Spurs needing to trade him to make way for young stars Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. It didn’t help that Harper applied public pressure with his quote to GQ magazine about how his sixth man days were officially over (he later reverted to the “whatever I can do…to help the team win” approach).

The Spurs themselves have never co-signed on the concept of Fox being the odd man out, instead signaling that they remain invested believers in the 28-year-old, two-time All-Star. They would surely appreciate this programming note, too: Fox, as so many seem to forget, suffered a brutal high-ankle sprain against Oklahoma City in the West finals and played through all sorts of pain against the Knicks. That’s all ancient history, though.

The focus now, as our Spurs expert Jared Weiss detailed, is on the possible solution that they experimented with in the preseason: a three-guard lineup where they all get to be starters. It remains to be seen if that’s the wisest way to go, but the fact that third-year coach Mitch Johnson is willing to try such an unorthodox approach speaks volumes about the need for harmony here.

But Wembanyama, more than anyone in that Spurs locker room, can soothe those sorts of basketball tensions. With his play. With his personality. With his presence.

He set the right sort of selfless tone with his extension in the summer, leaving approximately $50 million on the table so the Spurs would have more flexibility to build out their roster in the future. And while this is a lot to ask someone who’s still a relative neophyte in the NBA, he has cornered the market on doing the remarkable in his first three seasons as it is. There’s no reason to think he can’t pull off this Spurs project either.

LeBron James

The Sixers didn’t sign up for the LeBron James goodbye tour. All that pomp and circumstance won’t help them deliver a title to this starving (and understandably cranky) fanbase for the first time since the Ronald Reagan era (circa 1983).

Ditto for the debates about his helicopter commute, his Polymarket deal or the alleged reprimand of Joel Embiid about being late to practice during training camp (which James denied).

No, when they shocked the basketball world by landing him in late July, beating out Miami, Minnesota, Golden State and Cleveland in the summer’s most fascinating (and longest) sweepstakes, it was to sign the actual LeBron James. The 41-year-old basketball player who is widely seen as one of the GOATs (if not the one) and who was still good enough last season to not only earn an All-Star berth but to carry the Luka Dončić -less Lakers past the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. The prospect of adding that guy to a roster that was already stacked with Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, Embiid and VJ Edgecombe was enough to put them back in the title-contending conversation.

Yet, as the Sixers have already been reminded in this early going, being in business with James means dealing with the nonstop noise that tends to follow him. Even when you get him on a veteran’s minimum deal. Some of it is his doing. A lot of it is not. But either way, it adds a challenging layer to this partnership that already had natural questions regarding his remarkable tussle with Father Time.

It is fair to wonder if James can somehow remain elite, or if he can blend with the rest of the Sixers core in time to create that crucial chemistry. Even beyond those inevitable unknowns, the reality is that these Sixers will have to fight back against the distractions, and the threat of dysfunction, that come with this sort of collection of talent and personalities.

Of course, James, and all that he brings, is only part of this compelling puzzle. Embiid’s health, or lack thereof, is an omnipresent topic. Brown, and his ability to thrive in the unforgiving Philly environment after all those years in Boston, is on the short list too. And will the older guys make sure to leave room for the young stars to show out?

Those are all topics for longtime coach Nick Nurse to tackle. But the Sixers’ ability to make the most of James — fanfare be damned — might be the greatest X-factor of them all.

Nikola Jokić

The Denver Nuggets would prefer that Jokić wasn’t on a list like this.

After all, the 31-year-old, three-time MVP brought all of the speculation about his future to an end in late September when he declared that he was in Denver to stay. The proclamation even came with a punchline, with “The Joker” joking that he planned to sign an extension next summer “if they want me.”

Newsflash: They definitely want him.

So … there’s nothing to talk about here, right?! Wrong.

With Jokić’s NBA location now (unofficially) locked in for the long term, the conversation surrounding him shifts from the contract to the court. In short, it comes down to this: Can this Nuggets team, which lost most of the depth that was gained in a strong offseason a year ago and is now four seasons removed from its lone title in the Jokić era, come crawling back into contention and honor this choice that its beloved big man has made? Contract commitment or not, that’s the non-negotiable part of the Jokić experience. He’s simply too special for that not to be the case.

At some point, his individual brilliance loses substance if it doesn’t come in the context of a team that is a real threat. That was the confusing part about last season, when the additions of Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown — courtesy of the new front office that’s led by Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer — looked perfect on paper.


Nikola Jokić (Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)

Jokić was his Jokić self, averaging 27.7 points while leading the league in rebounds (12.9 per game) and assists (10.7) en route to a second-place MVP finish (behind Oklahoma City’s back-to-back winner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). Yet even with Denver’s strong finish to a 54-win regular season, when the Nuggets won their last 12 games and 15 of their last 17, that six-game loss to Minnesota in the first round of the playoffs was a damning indictment of its place in the West’s hierarchy. Watching those Timberwolves fall to Wembanyama and his Spurs in the second round confirmed that the gap between the Nuggets and the elite had grown.

That’s what makes these months ahead both meaningful and, really, mysterious. The on-paper picture is bleak in many regards, with the loss of 24-year-old forward Peyton Watson to Cleveland (via sign-and-trade) drawing widespread criticism in August. The fact that this team, which finished 21st in defensive rating, said goodbye to a young and versatile defender (who provided scoring punch as well) so the Kroenkes could keep luxury-tax costs down did not land well with the fanbase. In fairness, the Nuggets netted an unprotected 2031 first-round pick from the Cavs in the deal that will likely be shopped heading into the February trade deadline as a means to some sort of upgrade.

Maybe Aaron Gordon stays healthy, and Jamal Murray is an All-Star again. Maybe DeMar DeRozan, even at 37, gives them a different dimension with his playmaking and steady scoring. Maybe Alpha Diallo’s preseason impact on the defensive end portends great things from the 29-year-old EuroLeague star who signed in the summer (one-year, minimum deal), and newcomer Marvin Bagley III plays a pivotal part.

The brutal part for Jokić and his Nuggets bunch? Even that may not be enough, what with the Spurs, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Houston and even the Lakers all lurking (if JJ Redick is to be believed).

Honorable mentions

Kawhi Leonard

What sort of … aspirations might Leonard have in Toronto now that his Clippers chapter has come to a controversial close? If he can replicate what he did with LA last season, when he was elite during a 65-game showing that came amid the biggest salary-cap circumvention investigation in league history, then these Raptors could be good enough to trade blows with the East elite. Talk about (another) tough pill to swallow if you’re Clippers owner Steve Ballmer and his group, who saw Leonard walk away mostly unscathed in the league’s ruling and then signed off on this reunion trade that got him out of Dodge.

Ja Morant

The early returns on Morant’s Portland Trail Blazers experience have been very positive, but a basketball dilemma remains that certainly poses a threat to the happy-go-lucky vibes. Much like the Spurs, the Blazers have three big-time guards in Morant, Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday who aren’t used to sharing a backcourt space this tight. Add in that 22-year-old Scoot Henderson (the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft) has had a strong preseason, and it’s quite a puzzle for first-year coach Micah Nori.

Morant, the 27-year-old, two-time All-Star whose tumultuous time in Memphis came to an end with his trade to Portland in early July, is desperately in need of a redemption campaign. But the traffic issues are real in the City of Roses, where the Lillard reunion is finally real after he missed all of last season with a torn left Achilles tendon; Holiday can still play at a high level on both ends, and Henderson is hanging on to his own hoops dreams. Nori, meanwhile, gets to manage this sensitive situation while working on a contract that only includes one guaranteed season because new owner Tom Dundon insists that penny-pinching is the way to the promised land.

Jalen Duren

The Detroit Pistons’ summer was so dysfunctional that you almost forgot they were the best team in the East last season, finishing with the franchise’s best mark in two decades (60-22) before falling to Cleveland in the second round.

Between the loss of Tobias Harris in free agency, the Isaiah Stewart trade with Memphis and the tense negotiations with Duren that lasted the entire offseason, the threat of regression was very real. Some rival executives even wondered what franchise centerpiece Cade Cunningham might think about his long-term future there if the roster wasn’t headed in the right direction.

But messy as it was, the Pistons’ ability to ink the 22-year-old Duren to a five-year, $200 million deal meant that this core — along with their future financial flexibility — remained intact (23-year-old forward Ausar Thompson also signed a long-term extension). And Duren, whose camp had made it clear that he felt disrespected during the contract process, is looking ready to turn all of that angst into another All-Star appearance with how he has played in the preseason. As our Pistons beat writer Hunter Patterson analyzed here, his 24-point first half against Minnesota on Wednesday was as good a sign as any that he’s ready to earn that new deal and push their program forward again.

LaMelo Ball

It’s not just the fun factor that inspires all the curiosity about these revamped Timberwolves. But, yes, Tim Connelly deciding to pair one of the most entertaining young stars in the game today (Anthony Edwards) with one of the most unpredictable (Ball) in that late-June trade with Charlotte is enough to warrant watching on its own. As our Jon Krawczynski just wrote in this wonderful feature on the league’s most aggressive executive, this was a classic Connelly move.

Beyond that, though, this is a chance for the 25-year-old Ball to prove that last year’s growth with the Hornets wasn’t a mirage. For all his popularity with the younger crowd, and the jaw-dropping highlights that go viral on social media, scouts around the league didn’t start believing that Ball knew what it took to win until late last season.

Yet from Jan. 22 on, when Charlotte went 28-10 with a net rating of plus-10.8 that only trailed San Antonio’s, Ball averaged 20.7 points, 6.8 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 2.5 turnovers and had an individual net rating (plus-8.8) that was tied for second in that span behind Brandon Miller (9.1). That sort of showing bodes well for what might lie ahead, with Edwards, Ball, Jaden McDaniels, newcomer Jonathan Kuminga and Rudy Gobert forming one of the most intriguing starting fives around.

Jalen Williams

There are no asterisks on the Spurs’ barnburner of a West finals win against the Thunder, especially considering San Antonio was without Fox for those first two games because of his ankle injury. But the absence of one of OKC’s All-Stars for most of the seven-game series was glossed over in the media discourse.

The 25-year-old Williams, who showed his worth spectacularly during that 2025 finals performance against Indiana en route to the Thunder’s title, was only truly available for Game 1 against San Antonio because of a hamstring injury (he had failed attempts at returning in Games 2 and 6). That was the most painful subplot of OKC’s entire season, as Williams (wrist and hamstring injuries) played in just 33 regular-season games and logged 20-plus minutes in just three playoff games. But he’s healthy now and looking fully capable of helping the Thunder recapture what the Spurs stole.

There have been changes in OKC since Williams was on the rise, with Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain all ready and willing to feed off SGA and his heliocentric ways. But the Thunder, who signed Williams to a five-year extension worth up to $287 million last summer, were designed to have him play the part of Robin to Gilgeous-Alexander’s Batman. Here’s to hoping he can stay healthy enough to play the role again.

By Sam Amick / The Athletic

是不是说明哈珀已经向球队施压要求先发了,所以米奇不得不用不合理的阵容来维持球队脆弱的内部矛盾?

文班+4后卫,文班防守端和篮板压力激增,瓦赛尔打大前锋也是超负荷,会不会成为潜在的伤病因素?

这样看来,马刺新赛季并不是简单的“争冠失利的年轻球队上下一心卷土重来”的剧本,而可能是机会和危机共存。

@小石匠bot 如何看待?

关于界灵fsa提的三个问题,我基于论坛里已有的报道与分析,试着说一下自己的看法:

1. “哈珀施压所以米奇被迫摆怪阵”——从公开信息看,证据不足

  • 米奇·约翰逊给出的理由始终一致且非常直白:“他们是我们队里最好的三名球员中的三个”(见 The Athletic 季前赛首秀报道、SAEN 的分析)。他从未把这件事描述成“安抚某人”。
  • 哈珀在 媒体日 的公开表态是“教练组认为哪个位置最适合我,我就去打哪个”;《GQ》里那句“老子才不打替补”是他自己也承认的玩笑式互怼,事后专门回了“只要能帮球队赢球,我愿意做任何事”。
  • 更关键的是:球队管理层从未附和“福克斯是多余之人”的说法,反而一再强调对福克斯的投入。所以更合理的解读是——这是主动选择“五名最强球员同时首发”,并附加对更衣室情绪的照顾,而不是被球员逼出来的被动妥协。

不过有一点你的直觉是对的:这套阵容确实带有“维稳”成分。米奇愿意在争冠窗口期拿首发阵容做实验,本身就说明球队对内部角色分配格外敏感。

2. 文班+4后卫的防守/篮板负担与伤病风险——是合理担忧,但暂无数据支撑

  • 篮板:季前赛面对轮休主力的太阳,三后卫同场阶段马刺篮板 13-11 反而占优(ESPN);但同一篇报道和 SAEN 都明确指出,遇到体型更大的前场(比如本就常备双塔的雷霆)可能会有麻烦。这一点属于“尚未被证伪的风险”,不是“已证实的软肋”。
  • 瓦塞尔打四号位:6尺5寸顶四号位,身高确实吃亏,他自己也承认“这不会是完美的,我们还在摸索”。
  • 文班的负荷:与三后卫同场时他触球 24 次全队第一,还自己运球推进了 5 个回合——进攻端的组织负荷明显上升。至于这是否转化为伤病风险,目前没有任何数据或队方说法支持,我无法给出确切结论。
  • 可以参考的负面样本:上赛季三人同场时间极少(常规赛约 25 分钟,全季合计约 69 分钟),期间马刺净负 47 分。样本太小,但也不是好兆头。

3. “机会与危机并存”——这个框架我认为成立

论坛里这一串报道其实拼出了同一幅图:Sam Amick 那篇强调“文班再强也不能单核夺冠”,需要靠领导力去凝聚福克斯、卡斯尔、哈珀;Jared Weiss 把这套阵容称为“自然进化的一部分”;而 ESPN 那边已经确认揭幕战对雷霆就用这套首发。

所以你的判断基本可以这么说:这不是“上下一心卷土重来”的单线剧本,而是一次“用战术实验来消化阵容红利与角色矛盾”的高风险操作。真正决定成败的变量,是福克斯和卡斯尔的外线投射能否撑住空间(福克斯本人也直言“很大程度取决于我们能不能投进”),而不是哈珀的态度。

以上基于论坛现有报道;伤病风险部分没有可查证的结论,我不做推测。

:speech_balloon:热评

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via The Athletic