By Michael Pina / The Ringer, 2026-10-01 20:24:44
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2026-27赛季NBA于周一的媒体日非正式拉开帷幕。提问、回答，几乎每一次互动都无关紧要。关于本赛季真正有意义的揭示，只会从本月晚些时候开始的球场上浮现。有鉴于此，以下几位球员是我非常渴望在比赛真正开打后关注的对象。有些人换了新球队。有些人蓄势待发，准备完成一次惊人的飞跃。有些人则带着需要挽回的受损名声进入新赛季。
这份名单非常主观，本可以列上100个名字。我尽量不让自己的选择显得太显而易见，但也想涵盖一些足以左右冠军争夺格局的球员。我迫不及待想看看他们在未来六个月里的表现。
杰伦·布朗，费城76人
费城总得有所改变，这支天赋云集的超级球队上限高耸入云，下限却低到足以叩响NBA地狱之门。而处于这一切中心的正是布朗，他在波士顿的生涯于七月以一种不体面的方式戛然而止，当时凯尔特人将他交易至76人，换回的筹码——说得客气点——被大多数马萨诸塞州的篮球迷视为反人类的罪行。
在最佳状态下，布朗是天赋、耐力与凶悍的集中爆发。他滑翔、腾空，毫不费力地碾碎任何不幸在篮下挑战他的人。他的背身单打预示着一次“太小了”的挑衅。他的后撤步跳投——出手时命中率看似微乎其微——却总能应声入网。当他状态火热时，“势不可挡”和“不可阻挡”这类词绝非夸张。但硬币的另一面同样令人错愕。
在最令人沮丧的时刻，布朗会霸占球权，让进攻自行崩塌。他的执拗可以凭一己之力扭转球队的上升势头。仓促的跳投让队友们垂头丧气。
突破无果而终。传球飞出界外。显而易见的判断要么被错过，要么被无视。布朗的优势萎缩成短视的缺点。他的个人持球防守有时堪称华丽，但他在弱侧为队友补防的责任感就逊色多了。他的运球和脚步令人眼花缭乱——好坏皆是如此。
当然，这趟过山车的高低起伏并不完全平衡——布朗上赛季可是准MVP候选人——但没有哪位球星能像布朗这样，从一个决定到下一个决定，持续地亲手削弱自己在身体层面统治比赛的能力。他是一个懂得如何在可辨识的、有纪律的、能赢球的体系中运作的人。在四次入选全明星、从未在首轮系列赛失利的路上，他心不甘情不愿地这样做了近十年。但上赛季，在一场场均砍下生涯新高28.7分、球队进攻效率联盟第二的惊艳个人表演中，布朗往往无视篮球是团队运动这一事实。他几乎像个独行侠，在波士顿久经考验的体系之外野蛮生长。
上赛季当布朗——他并不是一名出色的外线射手——在场时，波士顿的三分出手率下降，中距离频率飙升。他对凯尔特人出手选择造成的负面影响，几乎比任何球员对各自球队的影响都要剧烈。与此同时，他还在失误数上领跑全联盟，而他的传球占比在302名符合统计资格的球员中仅排第299位。
这种打法在一支拥有勒布朗·詹姆斯、泰瑞斯·马克西和乔尔·恩比德的球队中会如何呈现——一个需要大量协作与自我克制的环境——将非常耐人寻味。杰伦整个职业生涯都在告诉任何愿意倾听的人：他有能力成为一支强队的第一选择，而当机会终于出现时，他也没有浪费它。但作为一个已经手握顶薪合同、总冠军戒指和总决赛MVP的人，在一支不会把他当作运转核心的球队里，他还有多少动力去退居次席？问题在于，对布朗最有利的选择，可能会损害费城的雄心。他那种“把防守人玩弄于股掌之间”的得意时刻，往往与对方主教练松一口气的表情同时出现。
换句话说，布朗是个“量很大”的球员。而要到达他们想去的地方，76人对他想给予的一切，只需要其中一部分就够了。
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亚历克斯·萨尔，华盛顿奇才
作为一支急切寻求存在感的重建球队中第二重要的新星，亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr) 的发展至关重要。这是这位2024年榜眼秀的第三个赛季，对于这位身高7英尺、在有些尴尬、效率欠佳且因伤病提前结束的二年级赛季中取得了一些进步的大个子来说，这可能是一个转折点。
萨尔成为了一名更具威慑力的护框者，尽管两分线内的命中率仍只有52%（对内线球员来说这是个糟糕的数字），但他的两分命中率相比新秀赛季已大幅提升。展望未来，特雷·杨——一位空接大师——应该会继续推动萨尔朝正确的方向前进。存在这样一种可能：到赛季结束时，萨尔和杨能组成华盛顿有史以来最危险的二人组之一。这里蕴含着巨大的理论上的多样性。萨尔既可以成为在人群中暴力空接的不可阻挡的大个子，也可以拉到弧顶外命中三分。如果这个假设成为现实，奇才的进攻将终于拥有一个可辨识的形态和锋芒。
但潜力是把双刃剑。而萨尔的潜力伴随着几个明显的复杂因素。目前，其中一个名叫“安东尼·戴维斯”。职业生涯首次与另一名中锋同时首发，萨尔可能会在无法拉开空间、也无法让他在防守端镇守禁区的超大阵容中度过相当多的时间。适应期将是真实存在的。
萨尔生涯三分命中率仅为31.6%，且上赛季出手量大幅下滑。好消息是，杨的存在很可能会消除那些本就不该出手的投篮。
坏消息是，根据Bball-Index的数据，萨尔在上赛季所有出场时间至少1000分钟的球员中，无球引力仅排在第9百分位。换句话说，即便有杨来组织这支不懂如何赢球的年轻核心，大多数对手在赛季开始时仍会放任萨尔随意出手。（如果投篮能进，那对所有人都是福音，包括状元秀AJ·迪班萨。）
更多坏消息：萨尔六月份接受了脚部手术，整个夏天都无法训练，也不会全程参加训练营。这可不是小问题。与那些占据大量战术地位的新队友培养化学反应真的非常重要。
当然，他也会出现在空间更开阔的小个阵容中。无论是掩护后外弹还是底角定点，萨尔的跳投都会获得大量空位机会。在现役控球组织中，很少有人比杨更适合简化他的进攻职责。而且，当AD健康时，也很少有内线比他更能帮助萨尔弥补防守覆盖范围——毕竟这支球队拥有杨，他可能是联盟实际打大量时间的球员中最差的防守者。
距离成为一名真正的球队基石级中锋，萨尔还有很长的路要走，但他今年迈出的步伐将决定奇才篮球新时代能有多成功。他们今年能摸到季后赛的门槛吗？我不会押注，但如果萨尔成长为攻防一体的怪物，那至少是有可能的。
保罗·乔治，波士顿凯尔特人
除了焕然一新的奇特阵容，凯尔特人本赛季还将充满变数。事情可能进展顺利：他们能防守，已经拥有冠军DNA，而且真的很能投。或者，随着杰伦·布朗远走费城、杰森·塔图姆仍在努力夺回跟腱伤病夺走的地位，他们也可能分崩离析。变革带来波动。即便塔图姆的日常贡献是决定波士顿成败的终极因素，乔治能否在辅助角色中（且不受伤病困扰）打出高水平，是一个更大的变量。
凯尔特人交易布朗有很多与乔治无关的原因。但围绕这一争议性决定的讨论，往往忽视了这位36岁老将在球场上依然能做到的一切。忘掉他的合同吧，也别再纠结他在费城令人失望的时光。（他现在效力的这支球队，并不围绕一个持球型中锋运转。）只要保持健康，PG就不是一个搭头。他的原始产出显然无法与布朗相提并论。他不冲击篮筐、不频繁造犯规，耐久度也不在同一水平。但乔治的技术依然属于顶级水准，而且更契合乔·马祖拉想要的打法。攻防两端的瑕疵更少、决策更精明（尤其是作为无球防守者，乔治在这个角色上依然出色）；而且至关重要的是，他的外线投篮稳定得多。
这当然可能行不通，而且公平地说，乔治对中距离的热爱几乎不亚于布朗。但不难想象PG在一个要求他减少低效出手的进攻体系中大放异彩。(当他与科怀·伦纳德同场时，他的三分命中率超过40%，且48.4%的出手来自三分线外。)
他也不想要、也不需要联盟顶级的球权使用率。这是他七年内的第四支球队。除了打进总决赛，他几乎什么都经历过了。乔治会制造更多球权（通过逼迫失误），然后帮助波士顿将这些球权最大化利用。他是一名完美的第二持球点创造者，当塔图姆不在场时，他带领替补阵容甚至有些“大材小用”。乔治还拥有丰富的无球经验，绕掩护出手致命，外线绝不能放空，而且懂得如何打挡拆。
篮球队就像拼图。用乔治替换布朗似乎不会让凯尔特人变得更强。但有时候，少即是多。尤其是当这个“少”是一位曾经的超级巨星——在需要时，他的天赋可以收敛成一名高级角色球员。
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斯科蒂·巴恩斯，多伦多猛龙
我尽量不对单轮季后赛中发生的事情反应过度。面对单一对手，这本身就是极小的样本量。有时一名球员会火热或低迷两周。有时对位极其有利或格外难受。有时关键队友（或对手）受伤，进一步扭曲了结果或机会。
但当然，这并不意味着我无视一切。季后赛的数据虽然不足，但竞争激烈、张力十足。每一回合中的压力、对细节的关注和强度，共同锻造出一个能展现顶尖水准的环境。它不适合所有人，而那些闪耀的人值得一些赞誉。
于是，斯科蒂·巴恩斯登场了。他在上赛季首轮对阵克利夫兰骑士的全面表现令人印象深刻，以至于让我相信，这可能促使猛龙在追逐科怀·伦纳德时明显更加激进。巴恩斯是那轮系列赛中正面影响最大的球员，在攻防两端胜任全部五个位置，掌控比赛节奏，并制造了大量轻松得分。
他的表现充满活力与自信。有一段时间，巴恩斯甚至从中线就开始贴防多诺万·米切尔，这是一个大胆的选择，也传递了一个信息：多伦多可能会倒下，但绝不会以更怯懦的方式倒下。实质性成长的迹象随处可见，尤其是在得分方面。常规赛期间，巴恩斯60%的进球来自队友助攻。到了季后赛，这一数字降至37%。通常情况下，这会导致效率下降。但巴恩斯的真实命中率反而从57.7%升至60.5%。他反复落位到舒适区、逼迫对手协防、频繁站上罚球线，还不停地为遍布全场的队友送出妙传。
再说一次，我们讨论的只是七场比赛的样本量，但巴恩斯以预估正负值排名季后赛第六的成绩收官（杰伦·布伦森排第七）。这或许说明不了什么。然而……如果这样的表现能延续整个赛季，如今又搭档一位能命中高难度投篮、吸引包夹、并在防守端大杀四方的成熟超级巨星，多伦多或许将拥有东部最好的二人组。
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克里斯蒂安·布劳恩，丹佛掘金
如果我们看到那种让丹佛远超季前预期的内部进步，布劳恩很可能参与其中。在布劳恩令人失望、伤病缠身的第四个赛季之后，人们很容易忘记他在2024-25赛季有多出色——当时他场均得到15.4分，真实命中率位列联盟第四。角色扩大带来的产出飙升，让布劳恩在最佳进步球员评选中名列第四，也促使掘金与他签下五年1.25亿美元的续约合同。（那个赛季，没有任何人——无论是字母哥还是勒布朗！——场均快攻得分比他更多！）
但进步并非线性。上赛季，只有三名非内线球员的三分命中率跌幅比布劳恩更大。好消息是，没有理由对他本赛季将这一数字拉回的能力持悲观态度。我更大的疑问是，他能否保持健康、在转换进攻中蓬勃发展，甚至作为半场进攻的持球选择进一步绽放。他不需要做什么惊天动地的事，只需成为一个能参与更多手递手配合、让防守顾此失彼的人。也许再穿插几个挡拆。他已经是天生的空切手（在尼古拉·约基奇身边打球这一点显然至关重要，而约基奇信任他），并且非常擅长篮下终结。但如果布劳恩能再进一步，延续大多数人在2025年之后就预见的轨迹，掘金将是一个令人惊喜的存在。
“我知道自己是谁，也知道自己是怎样的球员，”布劳恩八月份说道。“我知道我会反弹，明年我会回到我该在的位置。”掘金正指望着这一点。
布兰登·米勒，夏洛特黄蜂
拉梅洛·鲍尔已经离开。米勒将如何应对？作为上赛季联盟前五进攻球队的头号得分手，米勒在第三个赛季交出了夏洛特期望看到的一切。不过，他的不少进步可以归功于鲍尔那种令人咬牙切齿的无私。米勒成为了篮球界最精准的高产接球投篮手之一，但他的真实命中率最终仍低于联盟平均水平。
怎么会这样？当鲍尔缺阵时，米勒的出手机会变得艰难得多。他在篮下的命中率从有鲍尔时的73%暴跌至没有他时的52.5%。这令人担忧。此外，他的中距离出手频率从有鲍尔时的29.5%升至没有他时的40.8%。又一个不祥的转变。米勒在油漆区内自己创造出的许多出手并不好看，对于一个身高6英尺9英寸、拥有神射手跳投、还算不错的运球能力和精湛脚步的人来说，这有点奇怪。
当米勒面对落位防守冲向篮筐时，球场简直像铺满了太妃糖。他没有爆发力十足的第一步，也很少在对抗中完成终结；当他面对脚步灵活的侧翼和大个子时，他的突破通常以一次受干扰的上篮告终。
即便有科比·怀特、丹尼斯·施罗德以及（像康·克尼普尔这样的）能为夏洛特进攻提供真实牵制力的队友，随着拉梅洛的离开，米勒仍会发现自己面临更多需要持球创造的局面。如果他面对的是一个乐于收缩三分线、放他一对一单打的换防体系，夏洛特可能会陷入泥潭，而鲍尔将事后看来像个MVP候选人。
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里德·谢泼德，休斯顿火箭
那么，如果谢泼德爆发了呢？如果他在伊梅·乌多卡轮换中站稳脚跟，成长为联盟中最令人生畏的高产干拔三分射手之一呢？一个仅凭高位挡拆后的运球就能让对手防线陷入全面恐慌的人？谢泼德上赛季运球后的三分命中率达到了可观的37%。如果他的出手量和准度双双提升——这确实感觉很有可能——并且他能利用那些迫使大个子提到外线的激进防守策略，钻进油漆区然后真正大杀四方，我们或许将见证一次足以撼动整个西部格局的三年级飞跃。
如果谢泼德成为最佳第六人的最大热门，或者突然爆发、迫使乌多卡让弗雷德·范弗利特改打替补呢？我不会说这些情景很可能发生。在对阵洛杉矶湖人那轮真正惨淡的季后赛系列赛之后，外界对谢泼德上限的怀疑达到了历史新高。但那种足以证明火箭用探花签选中他是明智之举的爆发赛季，也并非不切实际。得益于球队的身份——一种以蛮力、体型和防守韧性定义的风格——谢泼德很容易被忽视。但在很多方面，在一支同样投篮挣扎的球队里，他才是打开一切局面的钥匙。
荣誉提名
纯粹因为忍不住。以下是我本赛季好奇的另外九名球员，每人一句话：
- 佩顿·沃特森，骑士**：**他能成为这支明显志在夺冠的骑士队所缺失的第五块拼图吗？
- 卡森·华莱士，雷霆**：**他在进攻端的飞跃，能让俄克拉荷马城重新确立王朝级霸主的地位。
- 贾·莫兰特，开拓者**：**如果他时光倒流，重新找回四年前让他成为几乎史无前例的集锦工厂的魔力与灵气，会怎样？
- 保罗·班切罗，魔术**：**今年是奥兰多在球队基石上场时变得更好的年份，还是交易他的年份？
- 迪伦·哈珀，马刺**：**这听起来可能很荒谬，但有没有可能一年之后，我们所有人都在讨论达拉斯独行侠是不是选错了人？
- VJ·埃奇科姆，76人**：**一个现在无人谈论、却拥有足够天赋在分区决赛期间成为万众焦点的小伙子。
- 达伦·彼得森，爵士**：**说实话，他可能成为整个赛季的故事——彼得森新秀赛季的上限就是这么高。
- 扎克·伊迪，灰熊**：**如果他保持健康，能在攻防两端作为卡姆·布泽尔的全职保镖碾压对手，孟菲斯会有多可怕？
- 奥萨尔·汤普森，活塞**：**别管投篮了；如果汤普森能展现出某种持球组织的活力，底特律的进攻将如同开挂。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：The Seven NBA Players We’re Most Curious About
The Seven NBA Players We’re Most Curious About
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The 2026-27 NBA season unofficially tipped off with media day on Monday. Questions were asked, answers were given, and pretty much every interaction was inconsequential. The only meaningful revelations about this season will emerge on the court, starting later this month. With that in mind, here are a few players I’m incredibly curious to watch once the games actually begin. Some are on new teams. Some are poised to make a monstrous leap. Some are entering the year with a tarnished reputation that needs to be saved.
The list is highly subjective and could’ve had 100 names on it. I tried not to be too obvious with my picks, but I also wanted to hit some guys who’re positioned to swing the title race. I can’t wait to see what all of them do over the next six months.
Jaylen Brown, Philadelphia 76ers
Something has to give in Philadelphia, a talent-packed superteam that has a sky-high ceiling and a floor low enough to knock on the gates of NBA hell. In the center of it all is Brown, who saw his tenure in Boston come to an unceremonious end in July when the Celtics traded him to the Sixers for a return that, to put it politely, was deemed a crime against humanity by most basketball fans who live in Massachusetts.
At his best, Brown is an eruption of talent, endurance, and severity. He glides, soars, and effortlessly pulverizes whoever’s unlucky enough to challenge him at the rim. His post-ups foreshadow a too-small taunt. His stepback jumpers, flung with a seemingly infinitesimal success rate, plop through the net. When it’s going well, words like “unstoppable” and “inevitable” aren’t hyperbole. The other side of that spectrum can be jarring, though.
At his most frustrating, Brown commandeers possessions that collapse in on themselves. His determination can singlehandedly reverse positive momentum. Rushed jumpers make his teammates’ shoulders sag.
Drives go nowhere. Passes sail out of bounds. Obvious reads are either missed or ignored. Brown’s strengths shrivel into myopic vices. His individual on-ball defense is at times spectacular. His responsibility to cover for others on the weakside, less so. His ballhandling and footwork have a dizzying effect, for better and for worse.
Of course, the highs and lows of this ride aren’t perfectly balanced—Brown was a pseudo-MVP candidate last season—but no star consistently undercuts his own ability to physically dominate a game, from one decision to the next, like Brown. This is someone who knows how to function inside a recognizable, disciplined, winning system. On his way to making four All-Star teams and never losing a first-round series, he did it, begrudgingly, for almost a decade. But last season, in a stunning individual campaign that saw him average a career-best 28.7 points per game on the second-best offense in the league, Brown tended to defy the fact that basketball is a team sport. He was almost a vigilante, thriving outside Boston’s tried-and-true system.
Boston’s 3-point rate shrunk and its midrange frequency skyrocketed with Brown—who isn’t a great outside shooter—on the court last season. His adverse effect on the Celtics’ shot diet was more dramatic than just about any other player had on their respective team. He also simultaneously led the NBA in turnovers with a pass percentage that ranked 299th out of 302 qualifying players.
How that approach translates on a team that has LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid on it, in a situation that will require a massive amount of collaboration and self-restraint, will be fascinating. Jaylen spent his entire career telling anyone who’d listen that he was able to be the primary option on a very good team, and then didn’t squander the opportunity when it finally appeared. As someone who already has a max contract, a championship ring, and a Finals MVP on his mantle, how motivated will he be to recede on a team that won’t place him at the center of its orbit? The issue here is that what’s best for Brown may undermine Philadelphia’s ambition. His idea of having his defender right where he wants them often coincides with a sigh of relief from the opposing head coach.
Brown, in other words, is a lot. And to get where they want to go, the Sixers will only need so much of everything he wants to give.
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Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards
As the second-most important prospect on a rebuilding team that’s desperately seeking relevance, Alex Sarr’s development is critical. This is Year 3 for the 2024 no. 2 pick, a potential tipping point for the 7-footer who made some strides during a sophomore season that was also a little awkward, inefficient, and cut short by injuries.
Sarr became a more intimidating shot-blocker and, despite still making only 52 percent of his field goal attempts inside the arc (an atrocious number for a big man), upped his 2-point field goal percentage dramatically from Year 1. Going forward, Trae Young—an alley-oop maestro—should continue to nudge Sarr in the right direction. There’s a world where, by season’s end, Sarr and Young are able to form one of the more dangerous two-man games Washington has had in … ever? There’s so much theoretical versatility here. Sarr can be the irresistible big who crams lobs in traffic and pops behind the arc to knock down a 3. If that hypothetical becomes reality, the Wizards offense will finally have an identifiable shape and edge.
Potential is dangerous, though. And with Sarr’s comes a few obvious complications. For the time being, one is named “Anthony Davis.” Starting alongside another center for the first time in his career, Sarr will probably spend a decent amount of time in jumbo-sized lineups that can’t space the floor or let him stay in the paint on defense. The adjustment period will be real.
Sarr is only a career 31.6 percent 3-point shooter who saw his volume dip dramatically last season. The good news is that Young’s presence likely eliminates shots that had no business going up in the first place.
The bad news, according to Bball-Index, is that Sarr finished in the 9th percentile in off-ball gravity among all players who logged at least 1,000 minutes last season. In other words, even with Young around to organize a young core that doesn’t know how to win, most opponents will open the season letting Sarr fire away. (If shots fall, it’ll be a boon to everyone, including first overall pick AJ Dybantsa.)
More bad news: Sarr had foot surgery in June, wasn’t active throughout the summer, and won’t be a full participant in training camp. This is not a minor issue. Developing chemistry with new teammates who consume a ton of oxygen really matters.
Of course, he’ll also find himself in smaller lineups with significantly more room to operate. Sarr’s jumpers will be wide open, whether he’s popping out of a screen or spotting up in the corner. Few floor generals alive are better equipped than Young to streamline his offensive responsibilities. And, when AD is healthy, few bigs are better equipped to help Sarr cover ground on a team that has Young—probably the league’s worst defender who actually plays significant minutes—in it.
Sarr has a long way to go before he’s anything close to a bona fide franchise center, but the steps he takes this year will help dictate how successful this new era of Wizards basketball can be. Can they sniff the playoffs this year? I wouldn’t bet on it, but if Sarr becomes a two-way monster it’s at least plausible.
Paul George, Boston Celtics
Along with their strange new look, the Celtics will have some variance this season. Things could go great. They defend, already possess championship DNA, and can really shoot. Or, with Jaylen Brown in Philadelphia and Jayson Tatum still needing to reclaim the status his Achilles injury took away, they could disintegrate. Change brings volatility. Even if Tatum’s daily contributions are the be-all and end-all that decides Boston’s success, George’s ability to excel in a supplementary role (without getting hurt) is an even larger variable.
The Celtics traded Brown for many reasons that have nothing to do with George. But discussions about that controversial decision often overlook everything the 36-year-old can still do on a basketball court. Forget about his contract and look past his disappointing tenure in Philadelphia. (He’s now on a team that doesn’t revolve around a ball-dominant center.) So long as he’s healthy, PG is not a throw-in. His raw production will obviously not match Brown’s. He doesn’t attack the basket, get to the line, or share the same degree of durability. But George’s skill set is still top-tier and more catered toward how Joe Mazzulla wants to play. There are fewer hitches and more shrewd decisions on both ends (particularly as an off-ball defender, a role George remains excellent in); and, critically, there is a far more consistent outside shot.
This could definitely not work, and it’s fair to point out that George loves the midrange almost as much as Brown. But it’s not hard to imagine PG thriving in an offense that wants him to cut down on less efficient shots. (When he shared the court with Kawhi Leonard, he made over 40 percent of his 3s, with 48.4 percent of all his shots coming from behind the arc.)
He doesn’t want or need to have one of the highest usage rates in the league, either. This is his fourth team in seven years. He’s done pretty much everything except compete in the NBA Finals. George will manufacture more possessions (by forcing turnovers) and then help Boston make the most of them. He’s a perfect second-side creator who’s overqualified to lead a bench mob when Tatum isn’t on the court. George also has plenty of experience working off the ball, is deadly coming off screens, can’t be left alone on the perimeter, and knows how to run a pick-and-roll.
Basketball teams are puzzles. It may not seem like sliding George in for Brown will make the Celtics better than they were. But sometimes less is more. Particularly when that “less” is a onetime superstar whose talent can be tapered down to that of a glorified role player when the situation calls for it.
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Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
I try not to overreact to anything that happens in one playoff series. It’s an inherently small sample size against a single opponent. Sometimes a player gets hot or goes cold for two weeks. Sometimes a matchup is super favorable or particularly unpleasant. Sometimes a key teammate (or opponent) is injured, further skewing an outcome or opportunity.
But, of course, that doesn’t mean I ignore everything. The playoffs yield insufficient data, but they’re also highly competitive and full of tension. The pressure, attention to detail, and intensity within each possession help forge an environment that’s able to showcase the best of the best. It isn’t for everyone, and those who shine deserve some praise.
Enter: Scottie Barnes, whose all-around performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers in last season’s first round was impressive enough to convince me that it may have motivated the Toronto Raptors to be significantly more aggressive in their pursuit of Kawhi Leonard. Barnes had the most positive impact on that series, functioning at all five positions on both sides of the ball, controlling the tempo, and generating a ton of easy baskets.
His performance was kinetic and confident. At one point, Barnes started picking Donovan Mitchell up at half court, a bold choice that sent a message: Toronto might fall, but it wouldn’t do so as the less aggressive team. Signs of tangible growth were everywhere you looked, especially when it came to scoring. During the regular season, 60 percent of Barnes’s baskets were assisted. In the playoffs, that number fell to 37 percent. Usually, when that happens, a player becomes less efficient. But Barnes saw his true shooting percentage rise from 57.7 to 60.5. He repeatedly got to his spots, forced help, lived at the free throw line, and couldn’t stop diming up teammates all over the floor.
Again, we’re talking about a seven-game sample size, but Barnes finished the playoffs ranked sixth in estimated plus-minus (Jalen Brunson was seventh). This probably means next to nothing. And yet … if that player is here to stay for an entire season, now paired with an established superstar who drills tough shots, draws double-teams, and wreaks havoc on the defensive end, Toronto may have the best duo in the Eastern Conference.
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Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets
If we see the type of internal improvement that allows Denver to blow past its preseason expectations, Braun will likely be involved. Coming off Braun’s disappointing, injury-plagued fourth season, it’s easy to forget how awesome he was in 2024-25, when he averaged 15.4 points per game with the fourth-highest true shooting percentage in the league. The spike in production with an expanded role earned Braun a fourth-place finish for Most Improved Player and motivated the Nuggets to lock him up on a five-year, $125 million extension. (Nobody that season—neither Giannis nor LeBron!—averaged more fast-break points per game!)
Progress isn’t linear, though. Only three non-bigs saw their 3-point percentage take a steeper dip than Braun’s last season. The good news is there’s no reason to be cynical about his ability to bump that mark back up this season. The bigger question I have is whether he can stay healthy, thrive in transition, and possibly even blossom more as an on-ball option in the half court. He doesn’t need to do anything crazy, just be someone who can be involved in more dribble handoffs to keep the defense off balance. Maybe sprinkle in a few pick-and-rolls. He’s already an intuitive cutter (which is obviously critical playing beside Nikola Jokic, who trusts him) and very good at finishing around the basket. But if Braun can take another step and continue on the trajectory most people foresaw after 2025, the Nuggets will be a pleasant surprise.
“I know who I am and the player I am,” Braun said in August. “I know I’ll bounce back and be right where I need to be next year.” The Nuggets are counting on it.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball is gone. How will Miller respond? As the leading scorer on a top-five offense last year, Miller gave Charlotte exactly what it hoped to see in his third season. Quite a bit of his progress, though, could be explained by Ball’s knife-grinding selflessness. Miller became one of the most accurate high-volume catch-and-shoot players in basketball, but he still wound up with a true shooting percentage below league average.
How? When Ball sat, Miller’s looks got a lot harder. His field goal percentage at the rim nose-dived from 73 percent with Ball to 52.5 percent without him. That is concerning. Furthermore, his midrange frequency went from 29.5 percent with Ball to 40.8 percent without. Another shift that doesn’t bode well. Many of Miller’s self-created looks in the paint aren’t pretty, which is kinda strange for someone who stands at 6-foot-9 and has a deadeye jumper, half-decent ballhandling abilities, and advanced footwork.
When Miller takes off for the hoop against a set defense, the court might as well be covered in taffy. He doesn’t have an explosive first step and rarely finishes through contact; when he’s matched up against wings and bigs who can move their feet, his drives typically end with a contested layup.
Even with Coby White, Dennis Schröder, and teammates (like Kon Knueppel) who lend real gravity to Charlotte’s offense, Miller will still find himself in more situations that demand on-ball play creation now that LaMelo is gone. If he’s up against a switch-heavy scheme that’s content staying home at the 3-point line and letting him attack one-on-one, Charlotte could get stuck in the mud, and Ball will retroactively look like an MVP candidate.
Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images
Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
So, what if Sheppard pops? What if, standing on solid ground in Ime Udoka’s rotation, he emerges as one of the scarier high-volume pull-up 3-point shooters in the league? Someone who can single-handedly induce total defensive panic by simply dribbling off a high screen? Sheppard drilled a promising 37 percent of his off-the-bounce 3s last year. If his volume and accuracy both rise—which definitely feels possible—and he’s able to leverage all the aggressive coverages that force big men to meet him on the perimeter by squirreling into the paint and then really wreaking havoc, we may witness a third-year leap that’s meaningful enough to tilt the entire Western Conference.
What if Sheppard is the runaway favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year or catches lightning in a bottle and forces Udoka to bring Fred VanVleet off the bench? I wouldn’t say these scenarios are likely. Skepticism about Sheppard’s upside is at an all-time high coming off that truly dreadful playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers. But the type of breakout season that justifies Houston’s decision to select him third overall isn’t unrealistic either. Thanks to his team’s identity—one defined by brute force, size, and defensive tenacity—it’s easy to overlook Sheppard. But in many ways, on a team that also struggles to shoot the ball, he’s the key to everything.
Honorable Mentions
Just because. I can’t resist. Here’s one sentence each for nine other players I’m curious about this season:
- Peyton Watson, Cavaliers**:** Can he be the missing fifth man on a Cavaliers team that clearly aspires to win it all?
- Cason Wallace, Thunder**:** An offensive leap from him could reassert Oklahoma City as a dynastic juggernaut.
- Ja Morant, Blazers**:** What if he turns back the clock and regains the magical charm and flair that made him a virtually unprecedented highlight factory four years ago?
- Paolo Banchero, Magic**:** Is this the year Orlando is better with its franchise player on the court or the year it trades him?
- Dylan Harper, Spurs**:** This might sound absurd, but is there a world where we’re all sitting around a year from now wondering whether the Dallas Mavericks took the wrong guy?
- VJ Edgecombe, 76ers**:** The guy no one is talking about who’s talented enough to be the guy everyone is talking about during the conference finals.
- Darryn Peterson, Jazz**:** He could honestly be the story of the season—that’s how high Peterson’s year-one ceiling could be.
- Zach Edey, Grizzlies**:** How scary will Memphis be if he stays healthy enough to mash people on both ends as Cam Boozer’s full-time bodyguard?
- Ausar Thompson,Pistons: Forget the shot; if Thompson emerges with some type of on-ball playmaking dynamism, Detroit’s offense will be a cheat code.
By Michael Pina / The Ringer