By Jeje Gomez / Pounding The Rock, 2026-09-25 07:01:18
马刺上赛季能够打进总决赛，主要依靠核心球员的发挥。争冠球队通常都是如此，因为随着季后赛轮次深入，他们并不被指望能排出深厚的轮换阵容。奇怪的是，这位现任年度最佳第六人，恰恰是那个上场后无法兑现期望贡献的球员之一。
凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 在西部决赛和总决赛中的出场时间都不到20分钟。对阵俄克拉荷马城时，他不在场时球队反而打得更好；而在总决赛中，尽管他的角色比常规赛小得多，球队在他上场时表现有所起色。对于这位效力马刺时间最长的球员来说，总有些地方不对劲，而挣扎出现的时机再糟糕不过了。
约翰逊有资格获得续约合同，但至今尚未收到报价。看起来续约的可能性不大，但无论如何恐怕都会是如此，因为马刺下赛季可能要面对突破奢侈税线的风险，需要尽可能保留薪资灵活性。尽管如此，约翰逊在新角色中打出的爆发之年，让他看起来像是核心拼图，而不是未来很可能被薪资空间牺牲的对象。但季后赛的问题，加上其他一些变化，可能已经改变了这一等式。
首先需要澄清的是，约翰逊在季后赛的进攻端并没有什么不同。他的投篮热图与常规赛几乎一模一样；篮板保护不错；三分命中率也大致相当。他的主要问题出现在冲击篮筐时。他在限制区的表现堪称糟糕，命中率仅有可怜的46%，与常规赛相当扎实的65%形成了巨大落差。简单的解释是，他面对了更出色的护筐者，那些对付弱旅行之有效的打法，在顶级球队面前失灵了。
但录像对约翰逊要宽容一些。观察他冲击篮筐的回合，可以明显看出他找不到合适的手感，但他依然利用身体试图创造空间，并按他自己的标准制造了一些不错的出手机会，只是其中有几次投篮弹框而出。约翰逊的问题在于，如果冲击篮筐打不出效果，他的比赛就没有什么特别之处了。他是一个不错但算不上出色的篮板手。他在防守端很努力，但永远不会成为防守端的重要加分项。三分球平均下来算得上稳定，但绝不连贯——有些出手空心入网，有些则砸在篮板侧面。当“攻城锤”这一特质缺失时，他就失去了自己最大的优势。
对马刺来说幸运的是（对约翰逊来说可能就不那么妙了），迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 接过了冲击篮筐制造压力的接力棒。这位新秀在季后赛共出手233次，其中115次来自限制区，命中率高达66%。这是哈珀的一次爆发式表现，他看起来已经为下赛季更大的角色做好了准备。从位置上看，他与约翰逊并不重叠，但他的突破能力，加上其他后卫的突破威胁，可能把凯尔登进一步推向无球角色，因为哈珀很可能成为新的第六人。
对约翰逊和马刺来说，结局也可能皆大欢喜。他在联盟第三个赛季曾以不错的出手量投出40%的三分命中率，所以他完全可以利用后卫们为他创造的空位机会，再次接近那个数字。此外，他在移动中接球后的进攻远比原地持球时出色，因此他可以把外线分球转化为突破，维持“只投三分和攻筐”的饮食结构。他的角色可能变小，但效率可能更高。毕竟，约翰逊过去已经证明了自己具备适应能力。
问题在于，如果他的角色确实缩小，他需要在常规赛和季后赛打出怎样的表现，才能在明年休赛期成为球队的优先续约对象？尤其是考虑到圣安东尼奥目前阵中已有朱利安·尚帕尼、托拜厄斯·哈里斯和卡特·布莱恩特与他争夺出场时间，而且这三人下赛季合同仍在，而约翰逊的合同将在本赛季结束后到期。他的领导力让他在更衣室里比其他人更有优势，但已经承诺出去的薪资，可能迫使凯尔登要么接受一份更小的合同，要么离开选中他的球队。
2026/27赛季尚未开始，现在就考虑赛季结束后的自由市场似乎为时过早，但在当前的工资帽规则下，很难不未雨绸缪。不过，比起琢磨约翰逊未来在账面上如何安放，更重要的是确定他在合同期内扮演怎样的角色。锋线球员的过剩、哈珀作为潜在精英替补的崛起（这将使约翰逊在轮换顺位上后移），以及约翰逊能否再次顺利适应，都将影响他在轮换阵容中的位置，并最终影响他在球队未来规划中的地位。
展望下赛季，约翰逊既可能成为替补席上的关键拼图，在那些推进节奏、吸引防守注意力的后卫身边大放异彩；也可能沦为边缘球员，如果哈里斯更全面的进攻和布莱恩特的防守与运动能力更受教练组青睐的话。两种情形的可能性看起来不相上下。而且，即便约翰逊在常规赛表现出色，他也需要证明自己在季后赛同样能扛得住，否则除非是一份极其对球队友好的合同，否则留下他都难以自圆其说。
争冠中的马刺尚未面临太多艰难抉择。约翰逊——这位深受球迷喜爱、球队的精神领袖——本赛季及之后的去向，可能会让组建冠军球队过程中那些残酷的一面，最终清晰地显露出来。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson conundrum
The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson conundrum
The Spurs got to the Finals last season mostly on the strength of their core players. It’s typically how things go for contenders, since they are not expected to field a deep rotation as the playoff rounds go on. The strange thing is that the reigning Sixth Man of the Year was one of the guys who just couldn’t contribute as much as he was counted on to when on the floor.
Keldon Johnson played under 20 minutes in both the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, and the Spurs were better with him off the floor against Oklahoma City while doing better with him playing in a much smaller role than he had in the regular season in the Finals. Something just wasn’t right for the longest-tenured Spur, and the timing of the struggles couldn’t have been worse.
Johnson is eligible for an extension but has not received one yet. It feels unlikely one is in the cards, but that was probably the case no matter what, as the Spurs deal with potentially getting past the tax line next season and need all the flexibility they can muster. Still, having a breakout year in a new role made Johnson seem like a core piece instead of a likely future casualty to the cap. The postseason issues, along with other developments, might have changed that equation.
The first thing to clarify is that Johnson didn’t do anything differently on offense in the playoffs. His shot chart is almost identical to the one he had in the regular season; his rebounding was good; he shot about the same from beyond the arc. His main problem came when he attacked the rim. He was atrocious from the restricted area, shooting a paltry 46 percent, a gigantic gap from the very solid 65 percent he shot in the regular season. The simple explanation is that he faced better rim protectors, and what worked against lesser competition didn’t work against top teams.
The tape is kinder to Johnson. Watching his forays to the rim, it’s clear that he couldn’t find the right touch, but he still used his body to try to create separation and some good looks, by his standards. A few of those shots just rimmed out. The problem for Johnson is that if he’s not having success attacking the rim, there’s nothing special about his game. He’s a good but not exceptional rebounder. He tries on defense but will never be a major plus on that end. The three-pointer averages out to being solid, but it’s anything but consistent, with some looks hitting nothing but net and others the side of the backboard. When the battering ram aspect of his game is missing, he loses his best trait.
Luckily for the Spurs (and probably bad for Johnson), Dylan Harper took over as the rim pressure provider off the rim. The rookie took 233 shots in the postseason, and 115 of them came in the restricted area, where he converted at a 66 percent clip. It was a breakout performance for Harper, who looked ready for a bigger role next season. Positionally, he doesn’t overlap with Johnson, but his driving ability, along with the other guards’, could move Keldon to even more of an off-ball role, as Harper likely becomes the new sixth man.
It could all work out for the best for Johnson and the Spurs. He shot 40 percent on threes in his third year in the league on good volume, so he could take advantage of the looks the guards create for him and get close to that number again. He’s also much better at attacking when he catches on the move than from a standstill, so he could turn kick-out passes into drives to maintain his threes-and-shots-at-the-rim-only diet. His role might get smaller, but he could become more efficient. Johnson has proved to be adaptable in the past, after all.
The question is, if his role does shrink, how good would he need to be both in the regular season and the playoffs to become a priority next offseason? Especially considering San Antonio has Julian Champagnie, Tobias Harris, and Carter Bryant in the books to compete with him for minutes now, and those three will be in the books next season, while Johnson’s contract expires after this one. His leadership gives him an edge over the others, at least in the locker room, but the money already committed to players could force Keldon to either take a smaller deal or leave the franchise that drafted him.
The 2026/27 season hasn’t even started yet, so it might seem premature to think about the free agency that comes after it, but with the current cap rules, it’s hard not to look ahead. Still, more important than figuring out how Johnson fits on the books in the future is determining what role he plays while he’s still under contract. The abundance of wings, the emergence of Harper as a potentially elite bench piece that would move Johnson down on the pecking order, and how well Johnson once again adjusts could impact his place in the rotation and, eventually, in the team’s plans going forward.
Looking at next year, Johnson could either be a key piece off the bench who thrives next to guards who push the pace and draw the attention of the defense or a bit player if Harris’ more well-rounded offensive game and Bryant’s defense and athleticism endear them more to the coaching staff. Either scenario seems just as likely. And even if Johnson plays well in the regular season, he’ll need to prove he can also get it done in the playoffs, or retaining him on anything but a very team-friendly deal would be hard to justify.
The contending Spurs have not faced many tough decisions yet. What happens with Johnson, a fan favorite and the team’s emotional leader, both this season and after it, could make the ugly aspects of trying to build a championship team finally become clear.
By Jeje Gomez / Pounding The Rock