By Zach Kram, 2026-07-28 19:00:00
2028年奥运会将在两年后的本周落下帷幕。而男子五人制篮球金牌赛将是这项国际赛事的压轴大戏之一。
美国队理应成为参赛者。美国人不仅赢得了连续五枚金牌——并且自NBA球员参加奥运篮球赛以来，九届赛事中赢得了八次——而且他们还将在2028年洛杉矶奥运会上拥有主场优势。
但对男篮东道主而言，2028年或许不会一帆风顺。过去五次金牌胜利中有四次都险象环生（两次对阵西班牙，两次对阵法国），而在老将勒布朗·詹姆斯、斯蒂芬·库里和凯文·杜兰特于2024年巴黎奥运会带队夺金后，美国男篮项目正处在一个过渡期。
今年早些时候，我们提前审视了潜在的候选者，并对可能赢得那12个令人垂涎的席位的球员做出了早期预测。
但篮球是一项充满变化的运动，因此，在下一届奥运名单公布前的未来两年里，进行定期盘点至关重要。让我们看看，自二月份那篇文章发布以来，根据球员在2025-26赛季后半段及季后赛的表现，哪些球员的奥运行情上涨了，哪些又下跌了。
行情上涨
后卫 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯队
在我最初构想的2028年奥运阵容草稿中，布伦森并非最终的12名球员之一。但现在，我们很难否认这位总决赛MVP当时被预测的那个位置了。
他在各个级别都赢得过胜利——高中州冠军，两个大学全国冠军，如今又加冕NBA总冠军。他所欠缺的，就是在国际舞台上的一枚奥运金牌。
布伦森的耐心、沉着与冷静让他成为NBA最出色的关键得分手之一，因此他可以承担一些2024年由詹姆斯、库里和杜兰特承担的比赛末段关键球责任。而且，鉴于法国队是美国队金牌机会的最大威胁——法国人赢得了过去两届奥运会的银牌——布伦森知道如何在与维克托·文班亚马的对抗中或在文班亚马身前得分，这对他有利。
他此前也展现过为国效力的意愿：布伦森曾改变自己的婚礼日期以代表美国队参加2023年世界杯。
前锋 斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙队
二月份时，巴恩斯是我初步名单中最后入选的球员之一，而现在他的位置更加稳固了。他2026年的季后赛征程在多伦多输给克利夫兰后只持续了七场，但他充分利用了自己短暂的聚光灯曝光时间。巴恩斯在季后赛场均贡献24.1分、8.6次助攻和6.1个篮板，并在防守端贡献了1.7次盖帽和1.1次抢断。在这份全能数据统计之前，巴恩斯是常规赛中唯一一位拿到超过100次盖帽和100次抢断的球员。
巴恩斯防守端的全面性使他非常适合奥运名单，而且他不是那种一旦在进攻端退居次要位置价值就会受到抑制的球星。这听起来正是一位奥运会的绝佳候选人。
前锋 杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)，明尼苏达森林狼队
在我的阵容预测中，我预留了一个位置给一名王牌外线防守悍将，他能在替补席上提供能量和封锁式防守，如果美国队的后卫是像布伦森和泰雷斯·哈利伯顿这样的进攻优先型球员，这将会特别有帮助。
麦克丹尼尔斯上赛季证明了自己是扮演这一角色的最佳球员。他打出了职业生涯最好的三分球赛季（命中率41%），并且在季后赛中，他很大程度上限制住了两位全明星控卫贾马尔·穆雷和达龙·福克斯。
麦克丹尼尔斯与安东尼·爱德华兹拥有经得起考验的化学反应，这也无伤大雅，后者几乎锁定了2028年奥运名单的一个席位。2028年奥运会时，麦克丹尼尔斯将年满27岁，这使他处于被考虑的理想年龄段。
后卫 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，圣安东尼奥马刺队
由于美国队在该位置上选择的数量和质量，奥运名单中最激烈的位置之争应该在后卫线。所以，这段简短介绍并非旨在暗示哈珀——他在2028年夏天才22岁——是入选下一届奥运名单的领跑候选者。
但这位2025年选秀的榜眼秀在新秀赛季就展现出了如此多的沉着冷静和如此这般的季后赛本领，以至于他至少进入了讨论范围。谁知道哈珀在未来两年会进步多少呢？
在去年选秀中被选在哈珀之前的球员，库珀·弗拉格，位列我最初的2028年奥运名单预测中，并且在他惊艳地结束新秀赛季后，他依然留在名单上。但他并非唯一值得考虑的2025届年轻新秀——因为毕竟，弗拉格所有的工作都是在常规赛完成的，而哈珀则常常是一支闯入总决赛的球队中场上表现最好的季后赛后卫。
中锋 巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)，迈阿密热火队
阿德巴约本人在迈阿密的附加赛失利中早早遭遇背伤，几乎没有参加季后赛。但他之所以出现在这份名单上，是因为他的行情在相比之下有所上升，因为与他竞争美国队中锋位置的对手表现得更加乏善可陈。
乔尔·恩比德和安东尼·戴维斯——2024年名单中的另外两位中锋——在上赛季大部分时间里都遭遇了伤病。而美国顶尖的年轻大个子们，杰伦·杜伦、切特·霍姆格伦和埃文·莫布利，在季后赛中的表现从中立到彻头彻尾的糟糕。
相反地，季后赛中最高产的大个子都是不会为美国队效力的国际球员，包括文班亚马、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯、以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因和鲁迪·戈贝尔。通过排除法，在本十年早些时候连夺东京和巴黎奥运金牌后，阿德巴约现在更有可能入选他个人的第三届奥运名单。
前锋 勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，费城76人队
这是一个外卡人选，因为詹姆斯似乎仍然不太可能参加他的第五届奥运会。在11月“Mind the Game”播客的一期节目中，当被问及他是否会参加2028年赛事时，詹姆斯说道：“问都别问。到时候我会在卡波看比赛的。”
但算一下这笔账并不难：詹姆斯刚刚同意了一份与费城的新两年合同，虽然第二年是一个球员选项，但合同预计将持续到2028年6月——就在下届奥运会开幕前一个月。
真的很难想象，届时将年满43岁的詹姆斯会改变立场，决定用最后一次奥运绝唱来告别赛场吗？
行情下跌
中锋 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
霍姆格伦仍然是美国队最有前途的年轻大个子之一，并且上赛季他基本上不负众望。他在年度最佳防守球员评选中位列第二，并首次入选了NBA最佳阵容，在雷霆季后赛前两轮横扫对手的比赛中，他的效率也令人难以置信。
但霍姆格伦在大部分分区决赛中消失了：对阵马刺队的系列赛中，他场均仅得到10.7分，命中率51%（相比前两轮的场均18.6分，命中率60%），并且在抢七大战中仅仅出手两次。
目前尚不清楚，如果霍姆格伦在未来两个赛季对阵马刺时的表现持续如此，这种如此剧烈的变化是否会影响奥运选拔过程。毕竟，美国队不能仅仅以某一个潜在对手为考量来构建阵容。但是，如果美国大个子球员能够在对抗文班亚马时，不显得明显受到惊吓，那肯定是一个加分项。
中锋 杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)，底特律活塞队
杜伦在季后赛中的行情下跌之惨重，如何形容都不为过。与常规赛他配得上NBA最佳阵容提名时的表现相比，这位22岁的活塞中锋在季后赛场均得分少了9.3分。根据ESPN Research的数据，这是自1969年以来全明星球员中最大的得分降幅（最少10场比赛）。
但这不仅仅是杜伦的原始产量下降了；问题在于，从风格上看，他显得很不自在和被动。这不是美国队决策层在寻找能在压力最大、风险最高的情境下竞争的球员时所寻求的比赛方式。
杜伦还有两年时间来为自己正名，证明他在五月能和在一月打得同样高效。但在我最初做出2028年奥运名单预测时，杜伦抢占了中锋的最后一个名额；如今他可能保不住这个位置了。
后卫 康·克纽佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂队
二月时，克纽佩尔看起来像一位有潜力的黑马奥运候选人，作为一位冉冉升起的年轻球员，他精湛的三分球技术将因其在更短的奥运三分线上而变得特别有价值。在我试图构建一支拥有球星和专家的现实球队时，他甚至在我预测的12人名单中占据了一席之地。
但鉴于他结束赛季的方式，克纽佩尔不再属于第一梯队。他在常规赛尾声阶段表现有些低迷，随后在夏洛特的两场附加赛中投篮总计22投5中（三分球12投3中），并且在黄蜂加时击败迈阿密的比赛末段枯坐冷板凳。和杜伦一样，他还足够年轻，可以通过未来两个赛季从始至终更平稳的表现，重新回到奥运选拔的有利位置。但也像杜伦一样，他现在是一名局外人，只能观望。
后卫 多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士队
从积极的方面看，米切尔职业生涯首次打入了分区决赛。但从消极的方面看，米切尔在个人层面上，在季后赛中的挣扎远超往常，这与他季后赛表现出色的名声背道而驰。
对这位七次入选全明星的球员来说，最糟糕的是，米切尔现在在美国后卫的排序中明显落后于布伦森。奥运会上最多可能只有他们当中的一个，因为他们是如此相似：米切尔和布伦森出生日期只差一周——下届奥运会时他们都将是31岁——并且他们占据着相同的进攻角色，同时都存在防守短板。
后卫 德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)，波士顿凯尔特人队
也许怀特一直就不太可能在2028年重返奥运名单，考虑到届时他将34岁。但怀特是2024年金牌得主，他的攻守兼备表现可能让他持续被纳入考虑。
然而，尽管怀特在2025-26赛季的防守一如既往地出色，但他的进攻输出却出现了问题。怀特上赛季投篮命中率仅为39%——三分命中率33%，两分命中率49%。在符合条件的球员中，他的有效投篮命中率排名倒数第三，仅优于鹈鹕队的新秀杰里迈亚·费尔斯和德里克·奎因。
结合怀特的年龄，这种颓势表明，到2028年，他将距离自己的巅峰期太远，无法重返奥运阵容。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Team USA Olympic stock watch: Which NBA players are rising, falling?
Team USA Olympic stock watch: Which NBA players are rising, falling?
The 2028 Olympics will come to a close two years from this week. And one of the final events of that international competition will be the men’s 5-on-5 basketball gold medal game.
Team USA should be a participant. Not only have the Americans won five consecutive gold medals – and eight of nine since NBA players joined the Olympic field – but they’ll also have home-court advantage at the 2028 Games in Los Angeles.
But 2028 might not be smooth sailing for the men’s basketball hosts. Four of the past five gold medal wins have been close (two against Spain, two against France), and the program is in a time of transition after veterans LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant led the way in Paris in 2024.
Earlier this year, we took an early look at the candidates to make the 2028 roster and made an early prediction of the players who will receive those 12 coveted spots.
But basketball is a game of change, so it’s important to conduct regular check-ins over the next two years before the next Olympic roster is announced. Let’s take a look at a handful of players whose Olympic stock has risen and another handful whose stock has fallen since that piece ran in February, based on player performance over the second half of the 2025-26 season and postseason.
Jump to a section:
Stock up | Stock down
Stock rising
G Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Brunson wasn’t one of the final 12 players I projected on my initial sketch of the 2028 Olympic roster. But it’s hard to deny the Finals MVP that forecasted spot now.
He has won at every level – a state championship in high school, two national championships in college and now a championship in the NBA. All he’s missing is a gold medal on the international stage.
Brunson’s patience, poise and composure make him one of the best clutch scorers in the NBA, so he could assume some of the late-game responsibility that James, Curry and Durant held in 2024. And with France looming as the greatest threat to the Americans’ gold medal chances – the French have won the past two Olympic silver medals – it’s a point in Brunson’s favor that he knows how to score over and around Victor Wembanyama.
He also has showed a desire to play for his country before: Brunson changed his wedding date to play for Team USA at the 2023 World Cup.
F Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Barnes was one of the last players to make my preliminary roster in February, and he’s on firmer footing now. His 2026 postseason lasted only seven games before Toronto lost to Cleveland, but he made the most of his short exposure in the limelight. Barnes averaged 24.1 points, 8.6 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game in the playoffs, and he added 1.7 blocks and 1.1 steals on the other end. That stat-stuffing came after Barnes was the only player in the regular season to tally more than 100 blocks and 100 steals.
Barnes’ defensive versatility makes him a great fit on an Olympic roster, and he’s not the sort of star whose value will be suppressed if he has to take a backseat on offense. That sounds like a prime Olympic candidate.
F Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves
I earmarked one spot on my roster projection for an ace perimeter stopper who could offer energy and shutdown defense off the bench, which would be especially helpful if Team USA’s guards are offense-first players like Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton.
McDaniels made a case as the best player in that role last season. He had the best season of his career from 3-point range (41%), and in the playoffs, he largely shut down a pair of All-Star point guards in Jamal Murray and De’Aaron Fox.
It doesn’t hurt that McDaniels also has proven chemistry with Anthony Edwards, who is close to a lock for the 2028 roster. McDaniels will be 27 years old at the 2028 Olympics, which places him in the perfect age range for consideration.
G Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs
The fiercest positional battle for the Olympic roster should be at guard, due to the quantity and quality of the American options at the position. So, this blurb is not meant to suggest that Harper, who will be 22 years old in the summer of 2028, is a leading candidate to make the next Olympic roster.
But the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft showed so much poise and such playoff chops as a rookie that he at least entered the conversation. Who knows how much Harper will improve over the next two years?
The player picked ahead of Harper in last year’s draft, Cooper Flagg, was on my initial 2028 roster projection, and he remains there after a phenomenal close to his rookie season. But he’s not the only young 2025 draftee worth considering – because after all, Flagg did all of his work in the regular season, whereas Harper was frequently the best playoff guard on the floor for a team that reached the Finals.
C Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
Adebayo himself barely participated in the postseason as he suffered a back injury early in Miami’s play-in loss. But he’s on this list because his profile rose in contrast, as his competition for Team USA’s center spots was even more lackluster.
Both Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis – the other two centers from the 2024 roster – were injured for most of last season. And top young American bigs Jalen Duren, Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley were all neutral to downright negative performers in the playoffs.
Conversely, the most productive big men in the playoffs were all international players who won’t play for Team USA, including Wembanyama, Karl-Anthony Towns, Isaiah Hartenstein and Rudy Gobert. By process of elimination, Adebayo is now on firmer ground to make his third Olympic roster after winning gold in Tokyo and Paris earlier this decade.
F LeBron James**, Philadelphia 76ers**
This is a wild-card pick, as James still seems unlikely to play in his fifth Olympics. When asked on an episode of the “Mind the Game” podcast in November whether he might play at the 2028 tournament, James said, “Don’t even ask. I will be watching it from Cabo.”
But it’s not hard to do the math: James just agreed to a new two-year contract with Philadelphia, and while the second year is a player option, it projects to run through June 2028 – just one month before the next Olympic Games.
Is it that hard to imagine James, who will be 43 years old by then, changing his stance and deciding to go out with one final Olympic hurrah?
Stock falling
C Chet Holmgren****,** Oklahoma City Thunder**
Holmgren remains one of Team USA’s most promising young big men, and he largely lived up to that billing last season. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and made an All-NBA team for the first time, and he was incredibly efficient through the Thunder’s sweeps in the postseason’s first two rounds.
But Holmgren disappeared for most of the conference finals: He averaged just 10.7 PPG on 51% shooting against the Spurs (down from 18.6 PPG on 60% shooting in the first two rounds), and he attempted just two shots in Game 7.
It’s unclear whether such a drastic change might affect the Olympic selection process if it persists in Holmgren’s play against San Antonio over the next two seasons. Team USA can’t build a roster solely with one potential opponent in mind, after all. But it would surely be a bonus for the American big men to be able to match up against Wembanyama without appearing visibly spooked.
C Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
It’s difficult to overstate how far Duren’s stock fell in the postseason. Compared with the regular season, when he was a worthy All-NBA selection, the 22-year-old Pistons center averaged 9.3 fewer points per game in the playoffs. That’s the largest drop for an All-Star since 1969 (minimum 10 games), per ESPN Research.
But it’s not just that Duren’s raw production fell; it’s that stylistically, he looked uncomfortable and passive. That’s not the approach that Team USA brass is looking for in its search for players who can compete in the most intense situations with the highest stakes on the line.
Duren has two more years to redeem himself and prove he can play just as effectively in May as he can in January. But back when I made my initial 2028 roster projection, Duren grabbed the final spot for a center; he wouldn’t hold it now.
G Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
Knueppel looked like a promising sleeper Olympic candidate in February as an ascending youngster whose 3-point prowess would make him especially valuable with the shorter Olympic 3-point line. He even grabbed a spot on my 12-man roster projection as I tried to construct a realistic team with stars and specialists.
But Knueppel is no longer in that top tier because of how he finished the season. He slumped a bit toward the end of the regular season, then shot 5-for-22 (3-for-12 on 3s) across Charlotte’s two play-in games and sat on the bench down the stretch of the Hornets’ overtime win against Miami. Like Duren, he’s young enough that he could work his way back into Olympic position over the next two seasons, with more even campaigns from start to finish. But also like Duren, he’s on the outside looking in for now.
G Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
On the positive side, Mitchell reached the conference finals for the first time in his career. But on the negative side, Mitchell struggled far more than usual in the postseason on an individual basis, which ran counter to his reputation as an excellent playoff performer.
Worst of all for the seven-time All-Star, Mitchell is now clearly behind Brunson in the pecking order of American guards. There’s probably room for only one of them at the Olympics, at most, because of how similar they are: Mitchell and Brunson were born just a week apart – they’ll be 31 years old at the next Olympics – and they occupy the same offensive role with defensive shortcomings.
G Derrick White, Boston Celtics
White might have always been a long shot to return to the Olympic roster in 2028, given that he’ll be 34 years old by that point. But White was a gold medalist in 2024, and his two-way play could keep him in consideration.
Yet while White’s defense was about as good as ever in 2025-26, his offensive output sputtered. White shot just 39% from the field last season – 33% on 3-pointers and 49% on 2s. Among qualified players, his effective field goal percentage ranked third worst, ahead of only Pelicans rookies Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen.
Coupled with White’s age, that downturn suggests he’ll be too far removed from his peak by 2028 to return to the Olympic roster.
By Zach Kram, via ESPN