[PtR] 2026/27赛季马刺轮换阵容展望

By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-07-23 08:14:46

马刺引进了托拜厄斯·哈里斯。你认为他能让球队提升多少?你觉得他会扮演怎样的角色?

Marilyn Dubinski:对于一支仅因自身失误而无缘总冠军的总决赛球队来说,想要进一步提升上限并非易事,但这恰恰是哈里斯能够提供帮助的地方:他能带来老将的沉稳,在攻防两端都打出扎实的表现,且极少犯错。目前很难说他还是朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 会担任首发,这可能取决于训练营的竞争,或者仅仅取决于一个简单的问题——尚帕尼的外线投射在哪里更被需要:是首发阵容还是第二阵容。

Mark Barrington:我认为他的加入能让球队变得更好,他带来了更多的老将领导力,同时也是一个得分点和强韧的防守者。他最终可能会压过尚帕尼获得首发位置,但我仍然认为他、瓦塞尔和尚帕尼这三人组获得的出场时间会大致相当。尽管他很可能成为首发,但他带来的最大影响将体现在球队的阵容深度上——当某位首发球员下场休息时,球队的实力不会出现大幅下滑。

Bill Huan:哈里斯为马刺提供了又一位首发级别的球员,假设哈珀新赛季继续替补出场,那么他将是球队的第七位首发级战力。对于一支在总决赛中面临无人可用窘境(尤其是在前锋位置上)的球队来说,这是一次至关重要的引援,同时也为这支非常年轻的队伍提供了一个可靠的老将战力。我确实担心他可能会出现状态下滑,毕竟他与巴恩斯几乎同岁,而我们去年都看到了巴恩斯身上发生了什么。尽管如此,哈里斯依然为马刺提供了一个可靠的轮换选择,在这样一支人才济济的球队中打球,有望让他在季后赛中保持充沛的精力。

Devon Birdsong:任何时候,只要你能为一支总决赛球队补充一位高效的投手和得分手,球队实力都会得到提升。而且哈里斯的效率远比某些人让你相信的要高得多。例如,他上赛季的效率值(PER)比德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 还要高,而且两人的真实命中率完全相同。(事实上,他的一些高阶防守数据也更好)在我看来,哈里斯将承担哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 过去两个赛季的角色,而巴恩斯现在则退居到“应急备用”的状态。但我认为,他和尚帕尼谁来首发确实是个问题。我的猜测是朱利安会首发,因为除了凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 之外,替补席需要更多的得分火力。但考虑到圣安东尼奥在大前锋位置上的对位劣势在季后赛中暴露得有多严重,我隐约觉得我们在整个赛季中会看到他们两人都有机会与首发阵容搭档。到了季后赛,他们需要哈里斯与首发阵容建立起一定的默契,而朱利安在首发和替补之间的切换一直都非常丝滑且无私。不过,马刺推特上的专家们向我保证,NBA球队在常规赛中是不会这么做的,所以我猜波波维奇那些年不断尝试阵容的举动大概只是我的幻觉吧。真是奇了怪了!

Jeje Gomez:我不认为他能大幅提升球队的上限,但他应该能帮助提高球队的下限。哈里斯确实有缺点,但他是一位懂得如何打球的老将,出勤率高,并且在战术陷入停滞时能够完成自主得分。马刺上赛季非常需要这种类型的球员,尤其是当巴恩斯开始挣扎的时候。至于他的角色,让他替补出场可能是最好的选择,以防止对手用中锋来对位哈里斯,就像他们以前对付巴恩斯那样。哈里斯是一个不错的投手,但不是那种顶尖的神射手,这使得他与首发阵容的契合度显得有些尴尬。尽管如此,在某些特定的比赛中,他可能是更好的选择,在这些对决中让他顶替尚帕尼的位置也不失为一个好主意。

登场亮相的新秀们在夏季联赛中都有过亮眼表现。你期望他们中有人能在2026/27赛季做出贡献吗?

Dubinski:塔里斯·里德 (Tarris Reed) 的机会最大,尤其是考虑到维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 是他们上赛季比较容易受伤的两名球员。我认为双向合同球员不会扮演太多角色,甚至根本没有上场机会(过去几个赛季一直如此)。虽然杰登·昆坦斯 (Jayden Quaintance) 有望在本赛季的某个时间节点做好上场准备,但我并不指望他能在下个赛季之前真正进入轮换。

Barrington:里德可能会在奥斯汀(发展联盟)度过赛季前半段的大部分时间,但在全明星周末之后,他可能会成为轮换阵容的重要组成部分。马利克·布朗 (Maliq Brown) 和贾科比·吉莱斯皮 (Ja’Kobi Gillespie) 在我看来更像是需要时间雕琢的毛坯新人,我们需要看看他们在奥斯汀的表现,才能确定他们是否能为圣安东尼奥做出贡献。即使他们真的进入了常规轮换,我认为也不会是在本赛季。

Huan:正如其他人所说,我预计里德会获得一些锻炼和成长的机会,但如果他在季后赛中获得任何实质性的出场时间(在没有伤病的情况下),我会感到非常震惊。我不确定届时他是否准备好成为球队的第三内线,但他肯定会比普拉姆利和比永博更好,对吧……???我认为我们应该保持相对较低的预期,但考虑到科内特签下的是一份短期合同,且马刺很快就会希望在替补中锋位置上实现年轻化和廉价化,里德本赛季的发展仍然会是一个主要看点。

Birdsong:里德肯定会在某个时候获得一些出场时间,哪怕仅仅是因为文班和科内特都有过缺阵的历史。但在参加了夏季联赛的球员中,卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 显然是更轻松的选择。真正的悬念在于,在哈里斯加入前锋轮换后,他的出场时间最终会变成什么样。必须得有人做出让步,但马刺也必须想办法继续培养这位在季后赛中做出过贡献的球员。对我来说,这是本赛季仅次于后卫出场时间分配的第二大阵容疑问。

Gomez:即使不考虑新秀,马刺在分配每个人的出场时间和球权上也会遇到困难,因此我怀疑不会有新秀能获得稳定的轮换角色。在这四个人中,里德很可能是获得出场时间最多的人,因为他拥有适应NBA对抗的身体,并且清楚自己的优缺点。我预计当文班亚马或科内特缺阵时,他至少能获得上场机会,但如果看到布莱恩特在里德下场时担任小球中锋,我也不用感到意外。无论他们今年的角色如何,最重要的因素将是他们的成长。当球队的薪资总额变得更高时,圣安东尼奥将需要廉价的轮换球员,所以如果去奥斯汀历练是让新秀们为未来做好准备的最佳方式,那他们就应该去那里。

按照目前的阵容来看,你认为谁会首发?谁在赛季开始时不会进入轮换阵容?

Dubinski:我认为轮换阵容基本上与上赛季相同,哈里斯在十人轮换中取代了巴恩斯,剩下的只是他和尚帕尼谁来首发的问题。布莱恩特也可能会获得更多的出场时间,这也许会以牺牲约翰逊的时间为代价。说出这话绝对让我感到痛苦,但在某个时刻,他们必须确定约翰逊是否是本赛季之后值得留用的人,或者布莱恩特是否能让他变得可以被放弃。(光是打出关于KJ的这些字就让我心碎!)

Barrington:正如我上面提到的,我认为哈里斯会压过朱利安首发,但尚帕尼最终的出场时间会和首发球员差不多。哈珀绝对拥有首发级别的天赋,但我认为他今年会继续扮演马努的角色,在替补出场的同时,也会在关键比赛的收官阵容中占据一席之地。达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在对阵尼克斯的季后赛系列赛中表现不佳,但球队赌他今年能迎来复苏,因为这是他几年来第一次在完全健康的状态下开启新赛季,他将会担任首发。

当马刺打小球阵容时,布莱恩特将作为一名矮个中锋在轮换中发挥更大的作用。我认为哈里森·巴恩斯本赛季的角色会被削弱,这不会让任何人感到意外;而乔丹·麦克劳克林 (Jordan McLaughlin) 只会在需要填补伤病空缺或在胜负已分的垃圾时间里获得零星的上场时间。我认为引进里德可以让马刺更多地尝试“香草法式”双塔阵容,让科内特和文班同时在场,但这要到赛季后期才会发生。

Huan:我同意玛丽琳所说的一切,尽管我没有她那么迷KJ(请别来找我算账!!)。剩下的最大悬念是尚帕尼和哈里斯谁来首发,因为听起来哈珀对于再次替补出场持“开放态度”(或者随便用什么词来形容)。当休赛期刚刚开启时,我真的以为最终的方案会是让三名后卫同时首发,但如果哈珀愿意再当一年的第六人,那么马刺就需要好好利用这个优势。

Birdsong:巴恩斯几乎肯定会默认淡出轮换,但我也很好奇在引进了哈里斯之后,科内特的出场时间最终会如何分配。马刺可能想给布莱恩特争取一些时间,所以我想知道,如果哈里斯或布莱恩特需要那额外的8分钟,科内特的出场时间是否会更接近他在季后赛中的分配(13分钟),而不是去年常规赛的水平(21分钟)。阵容如此深厚的一大弊端,就是它在出场时间分配上带来了复杂性。PTR专栏作家(也是前大学教练)李·德雷西 (Lee Dresie) 曾写过一篇关于时间分配的文章,我每个赛季至少会想到这篇文章十几次。我认为,对于米奇和他的教练组来说,找到这种平衡将是一个不小的挑战(尽管伤病可能会帮他们更容易地做出一些选择)。

Gomez:我认为尚帕尼将继续首发,除非上赛季摧毁对手的那套阵容出现退步。这就导致替补席上出现了一些尴尬的搭配,因为哈里斯、约翰逊、布莱恩特和巴恩斯都是大前锋,他们可能不得不一起出现在阵容中。我假设巴恩斯得不到出场时间,而哈珀、哈里斯、约翰逊和科内特是出场时间排名前四的替补球员,期间再穿插一些布莱恩特的上场时间。现在,如果布莱恩特的投篮有所提高,我完全可以预见他在轮换顺序上超越约翰逊,这将带来一些关于KJ未来的尴尬问题。但我们还是等事情真的发生时再去担心吧。

由生成式 AI 翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

查看原文:How the Spurs’ rotation could look in 2026/27

How the Spurs’ rotation could look in 2026/27

The Spurs added Tobias Harris. How much better do you think he makes them, and what role do you see him filling?

Marilyn Dubinski: It’s hard to raise the ceiling that much on a Finals team that only lost due to their own mistakes, but that’s exactly what Harris can help do: bring a veteran presence with a solid game on both sides who won’t make many mistakes. At this point, it’s tough to say if he or Julian Champagnie will start, and it may come down to a training camp battle or if it’s something as simple as where Champagnie’s outside shooting is more needed: with the starters or second unit.

Mark Barrington: I think he makes the team better by adding more veteran leadership and another scorer and tenacious defender. He could end up starting over Julian Champagnie, but I still think the trio of him, Vassell, and Julian all get about the same amount of minutes. Even though he’s likely a starter, the biggest impact will be on the team’s depth where they don’t have a huge fall-off in talent when one of the starters has to sit.

Bill Huan: Harris gives the Spurs another starting-calibre player, which would be the team’s seventh, assuming Harper comes off the bench again. For a squad that ran out of bodies in the finals (especially at the forward position), this is a vital addition that also provides a reliable veteran presence to a very young team. I do worry about a potential dropoff given that he’s almost exactly the same age as Barnes, and we all saw what happened to HB last year. Still, Harris gives the Spurs another reliable body, and playing on a loaded team will hopefully keep him fresh for the postseason.

Devon Birdsong: Any time you can add an efficient shooter and scorer to a Finals team, it’s going to make them better. And Harris is far more efficient than some might have you believe. For instance, his Player Efficiency Rating was higher than Devin Vassell’s last season, and their True Shooting Percentages were identical. (In fact, some of his advanced defensive stats were also better) I see Harris as taking on Harrison Barnes’ role of the last two seasons, with Barnes now migrating to ‘break glass in case of emergency’ status, but I think there’s a real question of whether he or Champagnie will start. My guess is that Julian will, because the bench could use a little more scoring punch outside of Keldon Johnson and Dylan Harper, but considering how much San Antonio’s matchup weakness at power forward popped up in the postseason, I have a sneaking suspicion that we’ll see them both get time with the starting unit throughout the season. They’ll need Harris to have a certain degree of familiarity with the starters come playoff time, and Julian has been both seamless and selfless in moving back and forth between the two. I’ve been assured by Spurs Twitter experts that that’s not something that NBA teams do during the regular season, though, so I guess all those years of Popovich experimenting with lineups was just a hallucination on my part. Ça alors!

Jeje Gomez: I don’t think he raises their ceiling much, but he should help raise their floor. Harris has flaws, but he is a veteran who knows how to play, is durable, and can get a bucket when everything else fails. The Spurs needed guys that fit that mold last season, especially when Barnes started to struggle. As for his role, it would probably be best to bring him off the bench to prevent opponents from putting their center on Harris, like they used to do with Barnes. Harris is a decent shooter but not a knockdown guy, so that makes him an awkward fit for the starters. Still, there could be games where he’s the better option, and it wouldn’t be the worst idea to give him Julian Champagnie’s spot in those matchups.

The rookies that suited up had some good moments in Summer League. Do you expect any of them to contribute in 2026/27?

Dubinski: Tarris Reed stands the best chance, especially since Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet were two of their more injury-prone players last season. I don’t think the two-way players will play much, if any role (which has been the case the last couple of seasons now), and while Jayden Quiantance will hopefully be ready to start playing at some point this season, I wouldn’t expect him to truly have a role until next season.

Barrington: Tarris Reed will probably spend most of the first half of the season in Austin, but he could be a big part of the rotation after the All-Star break. Maliq Brown and Ja’Kobi Gillespie look more like projects to me, and we will have to see how well they do in Austin to see if they can contribute in San Antonio. If they do make it to the regular rotation, I don’t think it happens this season.

Huan: Like everyone else said, I expect Reed to get some developmental run but I’d be floored if he saw any meaningful minutes in the postseason (barring injuries). I’m not sure if he’ll be ready to be the team’s third big by then, but he’ll surely be better than Plumlee and Biyombo, right…??? I think we should keep our expectations relatively low, but Reed’s development this season should still be a major storyline given that Kornet’s on a short-term deal and the Spurs will want to get younger and cheaper at the backup centre spot soon.

Birdsong: Reed is definitely in line to find some minutes at some point, if for no other reason than a history of both Wemby and Luke Kornet missing time, but out of players who suited up for Summer League, Carter Bryant is the easy choice. The real question is what his minutes will end up looking like with Harris added to the forward rotation. Someone is going to have to take a step back, but the Spurs also have to figure out a way to continue to develop a player who contributed in the postseason. For me, this is the 2nd biggest roster question for the season after how the guard minutes will be allocated.

Gomez: The Spurs will have trouble giving everyone minutes and touches even without considering the rookies, so I doubt any will get a regular role. Reed is likely going to be the one that gets the most playing time of the four, because he has an NBA-ready body and knows his strengths and weaknesses. I expect him to at least get a shot at minutes when one of Wembanyama or Kornet misses games, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carter Bryant out there as a small-ball center while Reed sits. Regardless of their roles this year, the most important factor will be their development. San Antonio will need cheap role players when the roster gets more expensive, so if spending time in Austin is the best way to get the rookies ready for the future, that’s where they should be.

As the roster stands right now, who do you think will start and who do you think won’t be part of the rotation to start the season?

Dubinski: I think the rotation will be basically identical to last season, with Harris replacing Barnes in the top 10 rotation, and then it’s just a matter of whether he or Champagnie starts. There may also be more minutes for Carter Bryant, perhaps at Keldon Johnson’s expense, which absolutely pains me to say, but at some point they’re going to have to determine if he’s a keeper past this season or if Bryant can make him expendable. (Just typing that about KJ crushes my soul!)

Barrington: As I mentioned above, I think that Tobias Harris starts over Julian, but that Champagnie will end up playing about the same number of minutes as the starters. Dylan Harper is definitely a starter-level talent, but I think he plays the Manu role again this year, coming off the bench while also getting a spot in the finishing lineups in big games. De’Aaron Fox had a bad playoff series against the Knicks, but the team is betting on a resurgence this year as he begins the season fully healthy for the first time in a few years, and he’s going to start.

Carter Bryant will be a bigger part of the rotation as an undersized center when the Spurs are playing a smallball lineup. It will surprise no one that I think that Harrison Barnes will have a reduced role this season, and that Jordan McLaughlin will only play spot minutes when needed as an injury replacement or to finish out games where the score isn’t close. I think the acquisition of Tarris Reed allows the Spurs to experiment more with a French Vanilla lineup with both Kornet and Wemby out on the court at the same time, but that won’t happen until later in the season.

Huan: I agree with everything Marilyn said, although I’m not as big of a KJ stan as she is (please don’t come after me!!). The big question remaining is who starts between Champagnie and Harris, given that it sounds like Harper is “open” (or whatever the terminology was) to coming off the bench again. When the offseason first opened, I really thought that the end game would be starting all three guards, but if Harper is ok with being their 6th man for one more year, then the Spurs will need to take advantage.

Birdsong: Barnes is almost definitely going to be out of the rotation by default, but I’m also curious to see how the minutes for Luke Kornet end up playing out with the addition of Harris. The Spurs probably want to find time for Bryant, so I wonder if Kornet’s minutes end up resembling something more like his allocation in the postseason (13 mins) rather than last year’s regular season (21 minutes) if Harris or Bryant need those extra eight minutes. The one thing about a team being this deep is the complications it creates in terms of playing time. PTR staff writer (and former college coach) Lee Dresie once wrote a piece on minutes allocation that I think about at least a dozen times each season, and I think figuring that balance out will be no small challenge for Mitch and Co. (though injuries may help them make some choices easier)

Gomez: I think Champagnie will continue to start unless the lineup that destroyed opponents last season regresses. That leaves some awkward fits off the bench, as Harris, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, and Harrison Barnes, who are all power forwards, would likely have to play in lineups together. I’m assuming Barnes doesn’t get minutes and Harper, Harris, Johnson, and Kornet are the top four bench guys in terms of playing time, with some Bryant sprinkled in. Now, if Bryant’s shot improves, I can easily see him leapfrogging Johnson in the depth chart, which would bring about some uncomfortable questions about KJ’s future. But we’ll worry about that when/if it happens.

By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock

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由生成式 AI 翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

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via Pounding The Rock