By Doug Kezirian | The Athletic, 2026-06-30 22:29:10
NBA最瞩目的超级巨星正式决定改换门庭，博彩市场也随之做出了反应。
在勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 及其经纪人宣布他不会重返洛杉矶湖人队之后，据报道，这位自由球员已经向全联盟开放了自己的意向——但金州勇士队和克利夫兰骑士队仍然是最有可能的选择。
在多家体育博彩公司和预测市场上，勇士队目前是得到这位超级巨星的最大热门。
在Kalshi预测平台上，金州勇士目前以46%的概率成为最被看好的球队，折合赔率为+105。克利夫兰骑士以28%的概率位列第二，赔率为+239。迈阿密热火队以12%的概率排在第三位。
在传统体育博彩公司中，金州勇士在争夺詹姆斯的竞争中优势更为明显。DraftKings在合法博彩司法管辖区给勇士开出的赔率为-275，而BetMGM在加拿大开出的赔率为-250。
就在一周前的6月23日，在Kalshi上，詹姆斯留守湖人或退役还是最被看好的结果，概率高达72%（赔率为-257）。克利夫兰以19%紧随其后，勇士则以13%排在第三。
在经历了教训之后，博彩制定者多年来在应对NBA自由球员市场时已经变得更加聪明。2010年，在詹姆斯著名的“决定”（The Decision）公布前的最后几天，精明的投注者利用50比1的赔率重注迈阿密热火，打得博彩公司措手不及。一夜之间，热火的赔率就调整到了1赔1左右。如今，这种情况已经不会再发生了。
“老实说，他们以前确实总能抢在我们前面，但现在大家处于同一起跑线了。每个人关注的都是相同的推特账号，”拉斯维加斯资深赔率制定者、Boomer交易主管尼克·博格丹诺维奇 (Nick Bogdanovich) 告诉The Athletic。
博彩制定者已经调整了勇士（25-1）和骑士（30-1）下赛季的夺冠赔率，这意味着得到詹姆斯只会让他们的赔率略微下调。如果他没有选择他们，赔率则会回升。这其中的主要原因在于他目前所处的职业生涯阶段。
“如果他去勇士，他会让勇士变得更强。但我认为他们无法像当年的湖人那样夺冠，因为在他们面前还有很多强队，”DraftKings体育博彩总监约翰尼·阿维洛 (Johnny Avello) 解释道。“当你拥有詹姆斯时，他也想拿到自己的数据。有时这会成为一个问题。”
另一支球队可能会浮出水面，让许多业内人士大吃一惊，就像2010年的热火那样。从篮球层面来看，圣安东尼奥马刺队是一个非常合理的去处，但目前还没有任何报道表明这即将发生……至少现在还没有。
“如果他去马刺，他们将成为最大热门，”阿维洛说。圣安东尼奥在DraftKings上的夺冠赔率为+260，仅微弱落后于夺冠热门俄克拉荷马雷霆队（赔率为+250）。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：LeBron James next team odds: Warriors, Cavs surge as new betting favorites to land superstar
LeBron James next team odds: Warriors, Cavs surge as new betting favorites to land superstar
The NBA’s biggest superstar is officially on the move, and the betting markets are reacting accordingly.
After LeBron James and his agent announced he will not return to the Los Angeles Lakers, the free agent has reportedly opened his candidacy to the entire league – but the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers remain the most likely options.
At multiple sportsbooks and prediction markets, the Warriors are now the favorites to land the superstar.
At Kalshi, Golden State currently is the favorite at 46 percent, which translates to +105 odds. Cleveland is the second favorite at 28 percent, which is +239 odds. The Miami Heat sit in third, at 12 percent.
At traditional sportsbooks, Golden State is an even bigger favorite to land James. DraftKings lists the Warriors at -275 in legal jurisdictions, while BetMGM has -250 odds in Canada.
Just one week ago at Kalshi, on June 23, LeBron staying with the Lakers or retiring was the favorite at 72 percent (odds of-257). Cleveland was next at 19 percent, and the Warriors were third, at 13 percent.
Oddsmakers have evolved over the years with NBA Free Agency after essentially learning the hard way. In 2010, the final days before LeBron’s infamous “Decision”, sharp bettors caught sportsbooks off guard with wagers on the Miami Heat at 50-to-1 odds. Overnight, the Heat moved to around even money. That no longer happens.
“Honestly, they used to beat us to the punch a little, but now it’s a level playing field. Everyone has the same Twitter accounts,” longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker and Boomer’s head of trading Nick Bogdanovich told The Athletic.
Oddsmakers have already adjusted next year’s championship odds for the Warriors (25-1) and Cavaliers (30-1), which means landing LeBron would only slightly lower them. If he does not choose them, the odds will increase. The main reason for that is the current stage of his career.
“If he goes to the Warriors, he makes them a better team. I don’t think they can win it all like the Lakers did because they have all those teams ahead of them,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello explained. “When you have LeBron, he wants to get his stats too. Sometimes that’s a problem.”
Another team could surface and surprise many insiders, just like the Heat did in 2010. The San Antonio Spurs make a lot of basketball sense, but no reports suggest it is imminent … yet.
“If he went to the Spurs, they would become the favorite,” Avello said. San Antonio has +260 title odds at DraftKings and is only slightly behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are the championship favorite with +250 odds.
By Doug Kezirian, via The Athletic