By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-07-06 14:40:11
是的，随着NBA自由球员市场、选秀以及伴随这两者的一系列交易，情况已经发生了变化。
但有什么真正改变了吗？
也就是说，有没有发生什么可能改变联盟实力格局的事情？
到目前为止，这些变化更多的是细微的，而非地震式的。我这么说，还得打上一个巨大的、以勒布朗为名的星号，因为他的自由球员决定，是市面上仅存的、能在六月份真正左右局势的重磅事件。
尽管如此，在目前的情况下，最引人注目的是，一旦到了季后赛的最高舞台，即使是这个休赛期最戏剧性的操作，似乎也改变不了什么。费城76人和迈阿密热火分别引进了杰伦·布朗和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，但由于各自在阵容深度和投射方面存在明显缺陷，他们看起来仍然远不足以打进分区决赛。
我们稍后会涉及勒布朗·詹姆斯这部分。但假设剩下的三位主要自由球员都与各自母队续约，我们已经可以看出下赛季争冠球队的大致轮廓。总的来说，感觉与去年非常相似，或许有一个显著的例外。从地理上看，随着科怀·伦纳德转投多伦多猛龙，实力天平略微向东倾斜，但除非詹姆斯效仿伦纳德从洛杉矶到湖边的旅程，加入克利夫兰骑士，否则西部看起来依然更加强硬。
让我们快速浏览一下联盟目前的局势。
第一梯队：两大豪门 —— 圣安东尼奥，俄克拉荷马城
拉斯维加斯的赔率制定者将马刺和雷霆视为下赛季夺冠的、遥遥领先的两大热门。这看起来似乎对卫冕冠军有些不敬，我们稍后会谈到他们，但这两支球队之所以备受青睐是有原因的：他们非常年轻，而且上赛季表现惊人，凭借统治级的基础数据赢得了超过60场比赛。虽然最终只有一队能晋级NBA总决赛，但他们再次拿到常规赛前两名战绩的可能性很大。
俄克拉荷马城在过去两个赛季赢得的比赛比其他任何球队都多，在2025年赢得了总冠军，并在2026年分区决赛中因两名关键球员受伤而七场惜败。雷霆依然拥有联盟中最深厚的阵容、最具统治力的防守和一位两届MVP。到目前为止，他们整个休赛期的操作就是送走了一些一年前就不需要、尽管他们确实是合格的轮换球员。
然而，重要的操作是重做了以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因的合同，这使得球队能够避开第二土豪线，并为赛季中的需求保持灵活性。即便在过去两个赛季以历史级的净胜分赢下64场和68场比赛后，更疯狂的是，这支球队足够年轻，下赛季很可能会变得更好。
圣安东尼奥，当然，在总决赛中被纽约尼克斯比了下去，但他们相比俄克拉荷马城拥有更有利的年龄优势，维克托·文班亚马、迪伦·哈珀和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔这几位关键球员都才20岁出头。认为文班亚马能赢得MVP，同时哈珀能赢得进步最快球员奖，这并不荒谬。马刺还通过引进托拜厄斯·哈里斯解决了他们的一个关键弱点，为他们提供了一位在第四节值得信赖的大前锋，这在对阵雷霆和尼克斯受到挑战时，是球队轮换阵容中明显缺失的一环。
对于杰伦·布伦森、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯和纽约尼克斯来说，这是一个神奇的赛季。（Geoff Burke / Imagn Images）
1A梯队：卫冕冠军 —— 纽约
纽约失去了米切尔·罗宾逊，但我不认为这是一个严重的问题。是的，他在一些边缘方面提供了帮助，但在总决赛中他场均只打13分钟，甚至在尼克斯第四场从落后29分大逆转的过程中，他的上场时间还让位给了阿里尔·胡克波尔蒂和杰里米·索汉。
我认为可能更成问题的是，纽约试图在明年春天再次捕捉转瞬即逝的机遇，或至少是延续2026年的辉煌。尼克斯是一支常规赛表现不错但不算顶级的球队，而且他们阵中并不特别年轻的球员们都又老了一岁。
重新攀登那座高峰将非常困难，而且他们不一定能拥有同样的机遇。尽管如此，在任何季后赛对决中，尼克斯依然是东部账面实力上的热门，即使他们可能不会作为头号种子进入季后赛。
第二梯队：东部的挑战者 —— 波士顿，底特律，多伦多
东部的精英球队，仅仅因为不需要连续闯过马刺和雷霆这两关，进入总决赛的几率看起来就比西部实力相似的球队要大。
波士顿在布朗交易前本应和纽约一起被列入1A梯队。凯尔特人连续三年赢球场次超过尼克斯，赢得了2024年总冠军，并且在过去三次输掉的系列赛最后关头，都遭遇了杰森·塔图姆的伤病。另一方面，尼克斯在2025年季后赛即使塔图姆受伤前就已将他们逼入绝境，而且在2026年76人解决掉凯尔特人之前，似乎也并未表现出对可能碰到他们的恐惧。
但将波士顿降一档的最大原因是那笔用布朗换保罗·乔治的交易。是的，基于凯尔特人可能进行的后续交易（更多内容见此），这笔交易最终可能以一种三维象棋的方式带来回报。但短期来看，乔治的合同是无法交易的，而凯尔特人则被锁定在乔·马祖拉那套常规赛远比季后赛管用的篮球风格中。
底特律上赛季赢了60场比赛，但当人们谈论争冠者时，却没人提及活塞。虽然活塞在2026年季后赛中暴露了缺点，但他们在过去两周也做得很好，为未来几个赛季重新调整了阵容。近乎免费地得到以赛亚·乔应该会极大改善他们一年前有限的空间拉开能力，而约翰·科林斯虽然得分不如哈里斯，但带给了他们更多的运动活力。显然，正如老读者所知，以赛亚·斯图尔特的离开导致保罗·里德得到解放，这会将活塞在霍林格排名中提升好几个档次。
更严肃地说，看好活塞的另一个原因是他们的弹药依然充足。基于他们的薪资状况和选秀权资本，他们是本文中少数几支有能力在赛季中进行重大升级的球队之一。底特律拥有所有未来的选秀权，未来次轮签还多出六个，本赛季之后的薪资空间非常干净，并且有多份到期或非保障合同可用作薪资匹配。你永远不知道哪位不开心的球星会在交易截止日寻找离队机会；你只知道这每年都会发生。活塞已经做好了猛扑的准备。
最后一点：我没见到任何地方将底特律列为勒布朗的潜在下家，但他真的很合适。也许对于一个来自俄亥俄的人来说，这一步还是迈得太大了。
多伦多必须在东部精英中被认真对待。猛龙上赛季相当不错，并且刚刚加入了一个能凭一己之力赢得季后赛系列赛的伦纳德。他们有斯科蒂·巴恩斯作为第二号球星，还有仍能继续进步的年轻球员（科林·穆雷-博伊尔斯、贾马尔·谢德、贾科比·沃尔特），RJ·巴雷特的到期薪资以及一个可用于交易的未来首轮签，这能为他们赛季中的操作增添筹码。
伦纳德令人生疑的出勤记录和球队投射能力的缺乏，使猛龙无法进入最顶层行列，但这支球队实力强劲，并且可能在季后赛中提升一个档次。
第三梯队：如果勒布朗到来 —— 克利夫兰，丹佛，明尼苏达
我认为有三支球队，如果某位特定自由球员决定以低薪合同加盟，就能跃升至纽约所在的梯队。既然这三队都出现在里奇·保罗的白板上，我们来讨论一下。
克利夫兰天赋最足，但要融入詹姆斯的潜在加盟，需要做的功课也最多。你会好奇，增加詹姆斯是否会导致骑士交易走贾勒特·阿伦，换来一位3D型小前锋，因为詹姆斯已不再是那种球员了。骑士阵容中一个明显的弱点是缺少一位有身高、能封锁对手的侧翼球员，而在如今，这比再添一位大个子或另一位持球手对他们更有价值。
骑士仍然拥有一个可用于交易的2031年首轮签，以及马克斯·斯特鲁斯和丹尼斯·施罗德的到期（或近似到期）合同。他们必须担心第二土豪线，但如果勒布朗说他会以老将底薪加盟，那就是不惜一切代价的时候了：用掉选秀权，冲破土豪线，事后在解决麻烦。他的到来将使2026-27赛季成为这支团队迄今为止冲击总冠军的最佳时机。
丹佛真的能用得上像詹姆斯这样的球员，尽管掘金在侧翼和后场也有其他需求。将他的天才与尼古拉·约基奇的天才组合在一起，将如此令人着迷，以至于能抵消掉每半场需要看朱利安·斯特劳瑟-齐克·纳吉组合被对手打出10-0冲击波的那六分钟。
尽管拥有约基奇这位MVP级别的核心，掘金在西部与顶尖强队并驾齐驱仍面临艰巨挑战。虽然增加詹姆斯会极大提升整体天赋水平，但我不确定他是否解决了对更多投射和防守的迫切需求。如果能在增加他的同时保住佩顿·沃特森，且不送走其他球员，我可能会更乐观一些。
明尼苏达是詹姆斯能产生最大影响的球队。从没有一个真正的四号位，到突然在市场上引进最好的四号位？是的，那将产生巨大影响。詹姆斯的控球和分配球能力能提供一些冗余，以抵消拉梅洛·鲍尔的易伤体质，而他的存在本身就足以让对手在考虑像2026年季后赛马刺那样、在半场就包夹安东尼·爱德华兹之前三思而后行。
此外，阵容的其他部分基本上会完美契合——杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯仍能打小前锋并防守对方最好的球员，阿约·多苏姆将回到更自然的第六人角色，侧翼深度也因此不会显得那么薄弱。
如果勒布朗去了明尼苏达并赢得总冠军，他将成为传奇，尽管在西部的胜算依然对他不利。排除万难，这是我个人期待看到的结果。
卢卡·东契奇（右）下赛季将不再与勒布朗·詹姆斯或马库斯·斯马特做队友。(Troy Taormina/ Imagn Images)
第四梯队：有机会一搏的球队 —— 印第安纳，休斯顿，洛杉矶湖人，迈阿密，费城
另外五支球队至少也有理由被纳入讨论范围，而且其中大部分还未完成补强。我尤其感兴趣的是看看印第安纳在泰雷斯·哈利伯顿从跟腱伤势中恢复、以及拥有伊维察·祖巴茨坐镇内线的情况下，能有怎样的作为。我也喜欢他们引进凯利·乌布雷的举动。但在我们亲眼看到哈利伯顿的状态之前，我无法自动将步行者重新提升到精英地位。
费城看起来仍然令人悲哀地形单影只，且无法指望乔尔·恩比德，但泰雷斯·马克西-VJ·埃奇库姆-布朗的外线三人组可能会极具压迫感。
湖人即将失去詹姆斯，但已经引进了沃克·凯斯勒、昆汀·格莱姆斯和桑德罗·马穆凯拉什维利，并且可能还会有其他新援加入。卢卡·东契奇今年也可能冲击常规赛MVP。
休斯顿同样如此。虽然2026年季后赛的结果令人极度失望，但火箭迎来了弗雷德·范弗利特的伤愈归队，并且凭借他们拥有的未来太阳选秀权以及与布鲁克林的2027年互换权，在交易市场上手握大量筹码。此外，他们的财务状况也十分稳健。
最后，迈阿密。是的，热火引进了扬尼斯。是的，在一个休赛期同时引进扬尼斯和勒布朗将是一大壮举。但在完成这两笔引援后，他们实力就足够强了吗？我对此表示怀疑。热火以前也变出过戏法，而且休赛期尚未结束，但仅从账面来看，这可能拥有全联盟最差的后场。我无法认可。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：The NBA’s balance of power has (not really) shifted, but could LeBron James change it?
The NBA’s balance of power has (not really) shifted, but could LeBron James change it?
Yes, things have changed as a result of NBA free agency, the draft and the series of trades that always accompany those two events.
But has anything really changed?
To wit, has anything happened that might shift the balance of power in the league?
Thus far, the shifts have been more subtle than seismic. I say that with one giant, LeBron-sized asterisk, because his free agency is the one true, June-level needle-mover left on the board.
Still, the striking thing about the state of play, as things stand, is how little even the dramatic moves of this offseason stand to change things once we get to the highest levels of playoff basketball. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat added Jaylen Brown and Giannis Antetokounmpo, respectively, yet still seem nowhere near good enough to make a conference finals, with each having glaring deficiencies in depth and shooting.
We’ll get to the LeBron James part of the equation. But assuming the other three major free agents left re-sign with their own teams, we can already see the outlines of what next season’s contender class looks like. Broadly speaking, it feels a lot like last year, with perhaps one notable exception. Geographically, it has tilted slightly East with Kawhi Leonard’s move to the Toronto Raptors, but unless James bookends Leonard’s L.A.-to-lakes journey by joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, the West still looks tougher.
Let’s take a quick look at the state of the league right now.
Tier 1: The two juggernauts — San Antonio, Oklahoma City
Vegas oddsmakers have the Spurs and Thunder as by far the two favorites to win the title next season. That might seem disrespectful to the champs, and we’ll get to them in a minute, but there’s a reason these two teams get so much love: They are really young, and they were tremendous last season, winning more than 60 games with dominant underlying stats. Only one can advance to the NBA Finals, but they’re good bets to have the two best regular-season records again.
Oklahoma City won more games than any other team each of the past two seasons, won the title in ’25 and lost the ’26 conference finals in seven games because of two key injuries. The Thunder still have the league’s deepest roster, its most dominant defense and a two-time MVP. Their entire offseason so far consists of shedding players they didn’t need a year ago, even though they were perfectly cromulent rotation players.
However, the important move was reworking Isaiah Hartenstein’s contract so the team can likely avoid the second apron and maintain flexibility for in-season needs. Even after winning 64 and 68 games the past two seasons with historic scoring margins, what’s wild is that the team is young enough that it’s likely to be even better next season.
San Antonio, of course, was outclassed by the New York Knicks in the finals but has even more of an age-related wind at its back than OKC with key players Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle all being in their early 20s. It’s not absurd to think that Wembanyama could win MVP and Harper could win Most Improved Player in the same season. The Spurs also addressed a key weakness with the addition of Tobias Harris, giving them a fourth-quarter-caliber power forward who was glaringly missing from the rotation when they were challenged against the Thunder and Knicks.
It was a magical season for Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the New York Knicks. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)
Tier 1A: The champs — New York
New York lost Mitchell Robinson, but I don’t see that as a serious problem. Yes, he helped at the margins, but he played only 13 minutes a game in the finals and even ceded minutes to Ariel Hukporti and Jeremy Sochan while the Knicks were coming back from 29 down in Game 4.
What I see as possibly more problematic is New York’s attempt to catch lightning in a bottle a second time next spring, or at least preserve the bolt from 2026. The Knicks were a good-but-not-great regular-season team whose not-particularly-young cast members are all a year older.
Re-climbing that mountain will be hard, and they won’t necessarily get the same breaks. Still, these would be your on-paper favorites in the East in any playoff tournament, even if they might not enter it as the top seed.
Tier II: The East insurgents — Boston, Detroit, Toronto
Elite teams in the East seemingly have better odds of making the finals than similarly talented ones in the West, based on the sheer fact of not having to go through both the Spurs and Thunder.
Boston would have been in Tier 1A with New York before the Brown trade. The Celtics have won more games than the Knicks three straight years, won the title in ’24 and had an injured Jayson Tatum at the end of the last three series they’ve lost. On the other hand, the Knicks had them on the ropes even before Tatum’s injury in ’25 and didn’t seem all that scared about potentially facing them in ’26 before the Sixers took care of that issue.
But the biggest reason to knock Boston down a peg is the Brown-for-Paul George swap. Yes, this may, possibly, ultimately pay dividends in a three-dimensional-chess type of way based on subsequent deals the Celtics might make (more on that here). But in the short term, George’s contract is unmovable, and the Celtics are locked into the same Joe Mazzulla-ball style that has fared much better in the regular season than in the playoffs.
Detroit won 60 games last season, but nobody talks about the Pistons when they talk about contenders. While the Pistons showed their warts in the 2026 playoffs, they also did a good job the past two weeks of repositioning the roster for the coming seasons. The nearly-free addition of Isaiah Joe should be a big boost to their limited floor spacing from a year ago, while John Collins won’t score like Harris but gives them more athletic zip. Obviously, as longtime readers know, the liberation of Paul Reed as a result of Isaiah Stewart’s departure will move the Pistons up several notches in the Hollinger rankings.
More seriously, the other reason to like the Pistons is that their powder remains dry. They are one of the few teams in this piece positioned to make major in-season upgrades based on their cap situation and draft capital. Detroit has all its future picks and is plus-six on future seconds, has a clean cap beyond this season and has multiple expiring or non-guaranteed contracts to use as a salary match. You never know which unhappy star will start searching for the exits at the trade deadline; you just know that every year it happens. The Pistons are primed to pounce.
One final note: I haven’t seen Detroit mentioned anywhere as a LeBron destination, but he’d really fit. Maybe it’s just a bridge too far for an Ohio guy.
Toronto must be taken seriously among the East’s elite. The Raptors were pretty good last year and just added a guy in Leonard who can win a playoff series by himself. They have a second star in Scottie Barnes, young players still capable of taking a step forward (Collin Murray-Boyles, Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter), R.J. Barrett’s expiring money and a tradable first to spice up their in-season moves.
Leonard’s iffy availability record and the team’s lack of shooting keep it out of the upper crust, but this is a strong team and one that may level up in the playoffs.
Tier III: If LeBron arrives — Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota
I see three teams that would jump into New York’s tier if one particular free agent decides to join their team on a low-dollar contract. Since all three appeared on Rich Paul’s whiteboard, let’s discuss.
Cleveland has the most talent, but has the most work to do to make the potential addition of James fit. You wonder if adding James would lead the Cavs to trade Jarrett Allen for a 3-and-D small forward, since James isn’t that guy anymore. The one glaring weakness on the Cavs’ roster is a shutdown wing with some size and, at this point, that’s much more valuable to them than another big or another on-ball player.
The Cavs also still have a tradable 2031 first-round pick and expiring or expiring-ish money with Max Strus and Dennis Schröder. They have to worry about the second apron, but if LeBron says he’s coming on a minimum deal, then it’s damn-the-torpedoes time: use the picks, blow past the aprons and worry about the mess later. His arrival would make 2026-27, by far, this group’s best shot at a title.
Denver could really use a player like James, even if the Nuggets also have other needs on the wing and in the backcourt. Pairing his genius with that of Nikola Jokić would be so mesmerizing that it would offset the six-minute stretch each half of watching Julian Strawther-Zeke Nnaji units bleed 10-0 runs.
The Nuggets face an uphill climb staying level with the elite in the West despite having an MVP-caliber centerpiece in Jokić. While adding James would greatly elevate the overall talent level, I’m not sure he fixes the desperate need for more shooting and defense. If they could add him while keeping Peyton Watson and not shedding other players, I might feel more bullish.
Minnesota is the one team where James could make the most difference. Going from not having a real four to suddenly adding the best four on the market? Yeah, that would make a dent. James’s ballhandling and distribution would add some redundancy to offset LaMelo Ball’s injury-proneness, and his mere presence would make opponents think twice about doubling Anthony Edwards at half court as the Spurs did in the 2026 playoffs.
Also, everything else on the roster would basically snap together — Jaden McDaniels could still play small forward and guard the opponents’ best player, Ayo Dosunmu would slide back into a more natural sixth-man role and the wing depth wouldn’t seem so shaky as a result.
LeBron would be a legend if he went to Minnesota and won, although the odds in the West are still stacked against him. Against all odds, this is the outcome I’m rooting for.
Luka Dončić (right) won’t have LeBron James or Marcus Smart as teammates next season. (Troy Taormina/ Imagn Images)
Tier IV: The puncher’s chances — Indiana, Houston, L.A. Lakers, Miami, Philadelphia
Five other teams have at least an argument to be in the mix, and most of them aren’t done cooking yet. In particular, I’m intrigued to see what Indiana can do with Tyrese Haliburton returned from his Achilles injury and Ivica Zubac in the middle. I like the addition of Kelly Oubre, too. But I can’t automatically promote Indy back to elite status until we see how Hali looks.
Philadelphia still seems woefully thin and can’t count on Joel Embiid, but a Tyrese Maxey-VJ Edgecombe-Brown perimeter trio could be overwhelming.
The Lakers are losing James but have added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili and may have other additions coming. Luka Dončić could also push his way into the MVP race this year.
Ditto for Houston. While the 2026 playoffs were a crushing disappointment, the Rockets return Fred VanVleet from injury and have a lot of juice in the trade market with the future Suns picks they own and the 2027 swap with Brooklyn. Plus, their books are in solid shape.
Finally, Miami. Yes, the Heat added Giannis. Yes, adding both Giannis and LeBron in one offseason would be quite a coup. Would they even be good enough after those two additions? I have my doubts. The Heat have pulled rabbits out of hats before, and the offseason isn’t over yet, but on paper this might be the worst backcourt in the league. I can’t get there.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic