By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-07-06 14:40:11
是的，随着NBA自由球员市场、选秀以及随之而来的系列交易，情况确实发生了变化。
但是，有什么事情是真正改变了吗？
也就是说，有没有发生任何可能改变联盟势力格局的事情？
到目前为止，这些变化更多是微妙而非地震级的。我这么说要加上一个巨大的、勒布朗级别的星号，因为他的自由球员决定是今夏唯一真正能左右大局的重磅事件。
尽管如此，就目前形势而言，最引人注目的一点是，即便这个休赛期发生了如此戏剧性的变动，到了季后赛最高水平的较量时，很多事情也可能不会有多大改变。费城76人和迈阿密热火分别得到了杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，但他们看起来仍然远远不足以打进分区决赛，各自在阵容深度和投射方面都存在明显短板。
我们稍后会谈到勒布朗这部分。但假设剩下的其他三名主要自由球员都续约母队，我们已经可以看出下赛季争冠球队的大致轮廓。总体而言，感觉和去年有很多相似之处，或许只有一个显著例外。从地理上看，随着科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 加盟多伦多猛龙，联盟格局略微向东倾斜。但除非詹姆斯追随伦纳德从洛杉矶到湖人的脚步，选择加盟克利夫兰骑士，否则西部看起来依然更加强悍。
让我们快速审视一下联盟当前的局势。
第一档：两大巨头 — 圣安东尼奥马刺、俄克拉荷马城雷霆
拉斯维加斯的博彩公司目前将马刺和雷霆列为下赛季夺冠的两大热门。这似乎对卫冕冠军有些不敬，我们稍后会提到他们。但这两人球队备受青睐是有原因的：他们非常年轻，而且上赛季表现出色，都取得了超过60场胜利，并且拥有统治性的高阶数据。尽管他们中只有一队能晋级NBA总决赛，但这两队很可能会再次打出常规赛前二的战绩。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 在过去两个赛季中赢得的比赛比任何其他球队都多，并在25年赢得了总冠军。在26年的分区决赛中，由于两名关键球员受伤，他们才在抢七中落败。雷霆依然拥有联盟最深厚的阵容、最具统治力的防守和一位两届MVP得主。他们到目前为止的整个休赛期，都在清理一年前就不需要的球员，尽管这些球员是完全合格的轮换球员。
然而，最重要的举措是调整了以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 的合同，这样球队很可能避免触发第二土豪线，并保持赛季中运作的灵活性。即便在过去两个赛季分别取得64胜和68胜，并拥有历史级的净胜分纪录，更疯狂的是，这支球队足够年轻，下赛季很可能变得更强。
圣安东尼奥马刺 当然在总决赛中被纽约尼克斯压制，但他们的年轻化优势比雷霆更为明显，其核心球员维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)、迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 都才20出头。认为文班亚马能在同一个赛季赢得MVP，而哈珀赢得最快进步球员奖，这并非天方夜谭。马刺还通过引进托拜厄斯·哈里斯，弥补了一个关键弱点，为他们提供了一名有第四节决胜能力的大前锋。在对阵雷霆和尼克斯陷入苦战时，轮换阵容中明显缺少这样一位球员。
对于杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 和纽约尼克斯来说，这是一个神奇的赛季。(Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)
1A档：卫冕冠军 — 纽约尼克斯
纽约尼克斯失去了米切尔·罗宾逊，但我不认为这是个严重的问题。是的，他在边缘有所贡献，但在总决赛中他场均只打13分钟，甚至在尼克斯第四场逆转29分的过程中，部分时间让位给了阿里尔·胡克波蒂和杰里米·索尚。
我认为更具潜在问题的是，尼克斯试图在明年春天再次捕捉闪电，或者至少是保住2026年的那道闪电。尼克斯是一支常规赛表现不错但并非顶尖的球队，而且其并不特别年轻的阵容成员又都老了一岁。
重新攀登那座高峰将非常困难，而且他们未必能获得同样的好运气。尽管如此，在任何季后赛对决中，即使他们可能不是以头号种子身份进入季后赛，他们依然是纸面实力上的东部冠军热门。
第二档：东部挑战者 — 波士顿凯尔特人、底特律活塞、多伦多猛龙
东部精英球队比西部同等天赋的球队似乎有更好的机会打进总决赛，纯粹是因为他们不必连过马刺和雷霆这两关。
波士顿凯尔特人 在布朗交易之前，本应和尼克斯同属1A档。凯尔特人连续三年赢的比赛比尼克斯多，在24年夺得过总冠军，并且在过去三次输掉的系列赛最后阶段，都有杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 受伤的情况。另一方面，在25年，甚至在塔图姆受伤之前，尼克斯就曾将他们逼入绝境；而在26年，在76人解决掉他们这个问题之前，尼克斯看起来也并不怎么害怕可能与之交手。
但将凯尔特人降一档的最大原因，是用布朗换保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 的交易。是的，基于凯尔特人后续可能进行的交易（更多内容点此），从三维国际象棋的布局来看，这笔交易或许，可能，最终会带来回报。但短期内，乔治的合同难以处理，凯尔特人被锁定在乔·马祖拉的篮球风格中，而这种风格在常规赛的表现远优于季后赛。
底特律活塞 上赛季赢了60场比赛，但当人们谈论争冠者时，没人提到活塞。虽然活塞在2026年季后赛暴露了缺点，但他们在过去两周很好地调整了未来几个赛季的阵容。几乎免费得到以赛亚·乔 应该对他们一年前有限的场上空间有很大帮助，同时约翰·科林斯得分能力不如哈里斯，但带给了他们更多的运动活力。显然，正如长期读者所知，以赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 的离开 所解放的保罗·里德，将使活塞在我的霍林格排名中上升数个档次。
更严肃地说，看好活塞的另一个原因是，他们的弹药依然充足。这支球队是本文中少数几支根据薪金状况和选秀资产，有能力在赛季中进行重大升级的球队之一。底特律拥有自己所有的未来首轮签，未来次轮签也是净增六个，本赛季之外的薪资表非常干净，并且有多份到期或非保障合同可作为薪资匹配。你永远不知道哪位不开心的球星会在交易截止日寻找出路；你只知道每年都会发生这种事。活塞已准备好随时出击。
最后一点：我没有在任何地方看到底特律被提及为勒布朗的潜在下家，但他真的很适合。也许这对一个俄亥俄人来说，还是太难以跨越的心理障碍。
多伦多猛龙 在东部精英队伍中必须被认真对待。猛龙去年表现相当不错，并且刚刚加入了一个能凭一己之力赢下一轮季后赛系列赛的球员——伦纳德。他们有第二位球星斯科蒂·巴恩斯，仍有能力进步的年轻球员（科林·穆雷-博伊尔斯、贾马尔·谢德、贾科比·沃尔特），RJ·巴雷特的到期合同以及一个可用于交易的首轮签，为他们的赛季中期运作增添筹码。
伦纳德不稳定的出勤记录和球队缺乏投射能力，使他们无法进入最顶层，但这支球队实力强劲，很可能在季后赛中更上一层楼。
第三档：如果勒布朗到来 — 克利夫兰骑士、丹佛掘金、明尼苏达森林狼
我看到有三支球队，如果某位特定的自由球员决定以低薪合同加盟他们，将立刻跃升至与尼克斯同档。既然这三家都出现在里奇·保罗的白板上，我们来讨论一下。
克利夫兰骑士 拥有最出色的天赋，但要让潜在的詹姆斯加盟顺利融入，他们需要做的整合工作也最多。你会想，詹姆斯的加入是否会促使骑士用贾勒特·阿伦去换一名能投能防的小前锋，因为詹姆斯已不再是那种类型的球员。骑士阵容中一个明显的弱点是缺乏有尺寸的顶级防守侧翼，而在当前阶段，这样一个球员对他们来说比另一个大个子或另一个持球手要宝贵得多。
骑士还拥有一个可用于交易的2031年首轮签，以及马克斯·斯特鲁斯和丹尼斯·施罗德即将到期或接近到期的合同。他们必须担心第二土豪线，但如果勒布朗说他愿意底薪加盟，那就是破釜沉舟的时刻：用掉选秀权，冲破土豪线，日后再收拾残局。他的到来将使2026-27赛季成为这套阵容迄今为止最佳的夺冠窗口。
丹佛掘金 确实非常需要像詹姆斯这样的球员，即便掘金在侧翼和后场也有其他需求。将他的天才与尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 的天才相结合，将是如此令人着迷，足以抵消看着朱利安·斯特劳瑟-齐克·纳吉的阵容在半场里被打出10比0攻击波的那六分钟。
尽管拥有约基奇这样MVP级别的核心，掘金要想在西部与顶级强队并驾齐驱，仍面临巨大挑战。虽然詹姆斯的加入将极大提升整体的天赋水平，但我不确定他是否能解决他们对更多投射和防守的迫切需求。如果他们能在保留佩顿·沃特森且不送走其他球员的情况下签下他，我可能会更乐观一些。
明尼苏达森林狼 是詹姆斯能够产生最大影响的球队。从没有一个真正的四号位，到突然增加了市场上最好的四号位？是的，那将产生巨大影响。詹姆斯的控球和组织能力将增加冗余度，以抵消拉梅洛·鲍尔的易伤体质，而他的存在本身，就会让对手在思考是否要在半场包夹安东尼·爱德华兹时三思而行，就像马刺在2026年季后赛所做的那样。
此外，阵容中的其他一切几乎都将完美契合——贾登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 仍然可以打小前锋并防守对手最好的球员，阿约·多孙穆将回到更自然的第六人角色，而侧翼深度也将因此不再显得那么薄弱。
如果勒布朗去明尼苏达并赢得冠军，他将成为传奇，尽管在西部胜算仍然对他不利。但无论如何，这是我最期待看到的结果。
卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)（右）下赛季将不会和勒布朗·詹姆斯或马库斯·斯马特作为队友了。(Troy Taormina/ Imagn Images)
第四档：有机会爆冷 — 印第安纳步行者、休斯顿火箭、洛杉矶湖人、迈阿密热火、费城76人
另有五支球队至少有机会跻身竞争者行列，而其中大部分球队还未完成运作。我尤其感兴趣的是，看到印第安纳步行者在泰雷斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 从跟腱伤势中回归，以及伊维察·祖巴茨坐镇内线后，能打出怎样的表现。我也喜欢他们得到凯利·乌布雷的操作。但在我们看到哈利伯顿状态如何之前，我还不能自动将步行者提升回精英地位。
费城76人 看起来仍然单薄得可怜，且不能指望乔尔·恩比德，但泰雷斯·马克西-VJ·埃奇库姆-布朗的外线三人组可能具有压倒性实力。
洛杉矶湖人 正在失去詹姆斯，但已经得到了沃克·凯斯勒、昆廷·格兰姆斯和桑德罗·马穆凯拉什维利，并且可能还有后续补强。卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 今年也有望强势杀入MVP争夺战。
休斯顿火箭 也同理。虽然2026年季后赛是一次惨痛的失望，但火箭将迎来弗雷德·范弗利特的伤愈复出，并且手握他们拥有的未来太阳选秀权以及与布鲁克林篮网的2027年首轮互换权，在交易市场上有很大的操作空间。另外，他们的薪资状况也非常健康。
最后是迈阿密热火。是的，热火得到了扬尼斯·阿德托昆博。是的，在一个休赛期同时得到扬尼斯和勒布朗将是一大壮举。但在完成这两笔引援后，他们就真的足够强了吗？我对此表示怀疑。热火以前曾变出过戏法，且休赛期还没有结束，但从纸面上看，这可能是联盟最差的后场。我很难看好他们。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：The NBA’s balance of power has (not really) shifted, but could LeBron James change it?
The NBA’s balance of power has (not really) shifted, but could LeBron James change it?
Yes, things have changed as a result of NBA free agency, the draft and the series of trades that always accompany those two events.
But has anything really changed?
To wit, has anything happened that might shift the balance of power in the league?
Thus far, the shifts have been more subtle than seismic. I say that with one giant, LeBron-sized asterisk, because his free agency is the one true, June-level, needle-mover left on the board.
Still, the striking thing about the state of play, as things stand, is how little even the dramatic moves of this offseason stand to change things once we get to the highest levels of playoff basketball. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat added Jaylen Brown and Giannis Antetokounmpo, respectively, yet still seem nowhere near good enough to make a conference finals, with each having glaring deficiencies in depth and shooting.
We’ll get to the LeBron James part of the equation. But assuming the other three major free agents left re-sign with their own teams, we can already see the outlines of what next season’s contender class looks like. Broadly speaking, it feels like a lot last year, with perhaps one notable exception. Geographically, it has tilted slightly East with Kawhi Leonard’s move to the Toronto Raptors, but unless James bookends Leonard’s L.A.-to-lakes journey by joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, the West still looks tougher.
Let’s take a quick look at the state of the league right now.
Tier 1: The two juggernauts — San Antonio, Oklahoma City
Vegas oddsmakers have the Spurs and Thunder as by far the two favorites to win the title next season. That might seem disrespectful to the champs, and we’ll get to them in a minute, but there’s a reason these two teams get so much love: They are really young, and they were tremendous last season, winning more than 60 games with dominant underlying stats. Only one can advance to the NBA Finals, but they’re good bets to have the two best regular-season records again.
Oklahoma City won more games than any other team each of the past two seasons, won the title in ’25 and lost the ’26 conference finals in seven games because of two key injuries. The Thunder still have the league’s deepest roster, its most dominant defense and a two-time MVP. Their entire offseason so far consists of shedding players they didn’t need a year ago, even though they were perfectly cromulent rotation players.
However, the important move was reworking Isaiah Hartenstein’s contract so the team can likely avoid the second apron and maintain flexibility for in-season needs. Even after winning 64 and 68 games the past two seasons with historic scoring margins, what’s wild is that the team is young enough that it’s likely to be even better next season.
San Antonio, of course, was outclassed by the New York Knicks in the finals but has even more of an age-related wind at its back than OKC with key players Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle all being in their early 20s. It’s not absurd to think that Wembanyama could win MVP and Harper could win Most Improved Player in the same season. The Spurs also addressed a key weakness with the addition of Tobias Harris, giving them a fourth-quarter-caliber power forward who was glaringly missing from the rotation when they were challenged against the Thunder and Knicks.
It was a magical season for Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the New York Knicks. (Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)
Tier 1A: The champs — New York
New York lost Mitchell Robinson, but I don’t see that as a serious problem. Yes, he helped at the margins, but he played only 13 minutes a game in the finals and even ceded minutes to Ariel Hukporti and Jeremy Sochan while the Knicks were coming back from 29 down in Game 4.
What I see as possibly more problematic is New York’s attempt to catch lightning in a bottle a second time next spring, or at least preserve the bolt from 2026. The Knicks were a good-but-not-great regular-season team whose not-particularly-young cast members are all a year older.
Re-climbing that mountain will be hard, and they won’t necessarily get the same breaks. Still, these would be your on-paper favorites in the East in any playoff tournament, even if they might not enter it as the top seed.
Tier II: The East insurgents — Boston, Detroit, Toronto
Elite teams in the East seemingly have better odds of making the finals than similarly talented ones in the West, based on the sheer fact of not having to go through both the Spurs and Thunder.
Boston would have been in Tier 1A with New York before the Brown trade. The Celtics have won more games than the Knicks three straight years, won the title in ’24 and had an injured Jayson Tatum at the end of the last three series they’ve lost. On the other hand, the Knicks had them on the ropes even before Tatum’s injury in ’25 and didn’t seem all that scared about potentially facing them in ’26 before the Sixers took care of that issue.
But the biggest reason to knock Boston down a peg is the Brown-for-Paul George swap. Yes, this may, possibly, ultimately, pay dividends in a three-dimensional-chess type of way based on subsequent deals the Celtics might make (more on that here). But in the short term, George’s contract is unmovable, and the Celtics are locked into the same Joe Mazzulla-ball style that has shown out much better in the regular season than in the playoffs.
Detroit won 60 games last season, but nobody talks about the Pistons when they talk about contenders. While the Pistons showed their warts in the 2026 playoffs, they also did a good job the past two weeks of repositioning the roster for the coming seasons. The nearly-free addition of Isaiah Joe should be a big boost to their limited floor spacing from a year ago, while John Collins won’t score like Harris but gives them more athletic zip. Obviously, as longtime readers know, the liberation of Paul Reed as a result of Isaiah Stewart’s departure will move the Pistons up several notches in the Hollinger rankings.
More seriously, the other reason to like the Pistons is that their powder remains dry. They are one of the few teams in this piece positioned to make major in-season upgrades based on their cap situation and draft capital. Detroit has all its future picks and is plus-six on future seconds, has a clean cap beyond this season and has multiple expiring or non-guaranteed contracts to use as a salary match. You never know which unhappy star will start searching for the exits at the trade deadline; you just know that every year it happens. The Pistons are primed to pounce.
One final note: I haven’t seen Detroit mentioned anywhere as a LeBron destination, but he’d really fit. Maybe it’s just a bridge too far for an Ohio guy.
Toronto must be taken seriously among the East’s elite. The Raptors were pretty good last year and just added a guy in Leonard who can win a playoff series by himself. They have a second star in Scottie Barnes, young players still capable of taking a step forward (Collin Murray-Boyles, Jamal Shead, Ja’Kobe Walter), R.J. Barrett’s expiring money and a tradable first to spice up their in-season moves.
Leonard’s iffy availability record and the team’s lack of shooting keep it out of the upper crust, but this is a strong team and one that may level up in the playoffs.
Tier III: If LeBron arrives — Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota
I see three teams that would jump into New York’s tier if one particular free agent decides to join their team on a low-dollar contract. Since all three appeared on Rich Paul’s whiteboard, let’s discuss.
Cleveland has the most talent, but has the most work to do to make the potential addition of James fit. You wonder if adding James would lead the Cavs to trade Jarrett Allen for a 3-and-D small forward, since James isn’t that guy anymore. The one glaring weakness on the Cavs’ roster is a shutdown wing with some size and, at this point, that’s much more valuable to them than another big or another on-ball player.
The Cavs also still have a tradable 2031 first-round pick and expiring or expiring-ish money with Max Strus and Dennis Schröder. They have to worry about the second apron, but if LeBron says he’s coming on a minimum deal then it’s damn-the-torpedoes time: use the picks, blow past the aprons and worry about the mess later. His arrival would make 2026-27, by far, this group’s best shot at a title.
Denver could really use a player like James, even if the Nuggets also have other needs on the wing and in the backcourt. Pairing his genius with that of Nikola Jokić would be so mesmerizing that it would offset the six-minute stretch each half of watching Julian Strawther-Zeke Nnaji units bleed 10-0 runs.
The Nuggets face an uphill climb staying level with the elite in the West despite having an MVP-caliber centerpiece in Jokić. While adding James would greatly elevate the overall talent level, I’m not sure he fixes the desperate need for more shooting and defense. If they could add him while keeping Peyton Watson and not shedding other players, I might feel more bullish.
Minnesota is the one team where James could make the most difference. Going from not having a real four to suddenly adding the best four on the market? Yeah, that would make a dent. James’s ballhandling and distribution would add some redundancy to offset LaMelo Ball’s injury-proneness, and his mere presence would make opponents think twice about doubling Anthony Edwards at half court as the Spurs did in the 2026 playoffs.
Also, everything else on the roster would basically snap together — Jaden McDaniels could still play small forward and guard the opponents’ best player, Ayo Dosunmu would slide back into a more natural sixth-man role and the wing depth wouldn’t seem so shaky as a result.
LeBron would be a legend if he went to Minnesota and won, although the odds in the West are still stacked against him. Against all odds, this is the outcome I’m rooting for.
Luka Dončić (right) won’t have LeBron James or Marcus Smart as teammates next season. (Troy Taormina/ Imagn Images)
Tier IV: The puncher’s chances — Indiana, Houston, L.A. Lakers, Miami, Philadelphia
Five other teams have at least an argument to be in the mix, and most of them aren’t done cooking yet. In particular, I’m intrigued to see what Indiana can do with Tyrese Haliburton returned from his Achilles injury and Ivica Zubac in the middle. I like the addition of Kelly Oubre, too. But I can’t automatically promote Indy back to elite status until we see how Hali looks.
Philadelphia still seems woefully thin and can’t count on Joel Embiid, but a Tyrese Maxey-VJ Edgecombe-Brown perimeter trio could be overwhelming.
The Lakers are losing James but have added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili and may have other additions coming. Luka Dončić could also push his way into the MVP race this year.
Ditto for Houston. While the 2026 playoffs were a crushing disappointment, the Rockets return Fred VanVleet from injury and have a lot of juice in the trade market with the future Suns picks they own and the 2027 swap with Brooklyn. Plus, their books are in solid shape.
Finally, Miami. Yes, the Heat added Giannis. Yes, adding both Giannis and LeBron in one offseason would be quite a coup. Would they even be good enough after those two additions? I have my doubts. The Heat have pulled rabbits out of hats before, and the offseason isn’t over yet, but on paper this might be the worst backcourt in the league. I can’t get there.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic