By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-18 21:17:44
在经历了一个令人惊喜且梦幻般的赛季后，圣安东尼奥马刺队在时隔六年之后重返季后赛，并以西部二号种子的身份出战。他们看起来已经具备了竞争者的姿态，表现远超预期，并赢得了全联盟的赞誉。现在，是时候证明常规赛的成功在季后赛中同样具有可持续性了。
波特兰开拓者队在附加赛中击败太阳队后，将在首轮扮演“搅局者”的角色。事实证明，波特兰是一支阵容深度厚实、球风顽强的球队，他们已经在爆发的新星德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 身上找到了建队核心。尽管在第一场比赛开始前，他们被视为巨大的劣势方，但尽管存在缺陷，他们仍不容小觑。
让我们深入分析一下这两支目标和预期截然不同的球队之间，将会展开怎样一场有趣的系列赛。
圣安东尼奥马刺
战绩： 62胜20负
进攻效率： 118.7 (联盟第3)
防守效率： 110.4 (联盟第3)
净效率： 8.4 (并列第2)
波特兰开拓者
战绩： 42胜40负
进攻效率： 113.1 (联盟第21)
防守效率： 113.5 (联盟第12)
净效率： -0.4 (联盟第19)
马刺的进攻将面临考验
波特兰是以防守立队的。尽管在赛季的不同阶段经历了多名球员缺阵，但他们的防守效率依然排在联盟前半段，而且可以说他们的实际防守能力比数据体现的还要好。他们最大的资产是体型。即使是身材较小的后卫，如斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 和朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)，也拥有令人印象深刻的臂展和力量。他们的防守型侧翼储备非常丰富，内线由多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 坐镇，罗伯特·威廉姆斯 (Robert Williams) 担任替补。当他们能够制造失误时，他们表现得最为出色，这通常是通过长轮换阵容施压并迫使对手犯错来实现的。
对开拓者来说不幸的是，他们面对的是一支似乎专门为克制其优势而设计的马刺队。银黑军团是联盟中失误率最低的球队之一，并且拥有多名持球者，可以轮番上阵以缓解任何特定对位带来的压力。他们打得很快，试图在对方防守落位前发动攻击，即使在阵地战中，通常也会用速度来对抗体型。他们的进攻并非最为复杂，但也不必如此。突破分球以及任何涉及文班亚马的战术通常就足以获得良好的出手机会。而且他们在前场篮板上也表现得非常积极，能够惩罚那些过度协防或防守过于激进的球队。
有一些关键对位值得关注。在常规赛的三场比赛中，即使在亨德森和霍勒迪可用的情况下，开拓者都让图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 去防守德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)。福克斯当时随心所欲地杀入禁区，因此他们可能会做出调整，尝试用身材较小但速度更快的防守者来匹配他的速度。即使他们限制住了今年打爆过他们的福克斯，马刺还可以让斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 来掌控局面，或者尝试通过换防让阿夫迪亚（一名稳健但并非顶级的防守者）去应对轮转。中距离投篮和抛投对于一个经常采用沉退防守封锁篮下、但大个子不具备换防能力的对手来说，可能是致命的。
说到大个子，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 缺席了常规赛对阵开拓者的全部三场比赛，但他应该会在这次对决中如鱼得水。尤其是克林根，应该无法应对文班亚马的灵活性，而且文班亚马可以用射程将他拉出禁区，从而使开拓者的底线防守暴露，并让他们容易丢掉前场篮板。波特兰在面对空间型大个子时，曾让克林根去对位非射手球员来隐藏他，但在面对马刺时可能很难找到这样的机会。从纸面上看，卡斯尔似乎是更好的对位选择，但他最近的投篮表现有所提升，并且可以利用运动能力攻击克林根。我们可能会看到蒂亚戈·斯普利特 (Tiago Splitter) 的球队祭出大量的联防。
最终，这取决于执行力。开拓者拥有许多长臂防守者，可以干扰马刺的持球者，并惩罚进攻端的任何分心或懈怠。他们对文班亚马无计可施，但可能会强迫其他人去击败他们，因此如果出现空位，射手们应该做好投篮准备。而圣安东尼奥的超级巨星如果发现对方整个比赛计划都旨在阻止他，则可能需要保持耐心。银黑军团应该能够得分，但在面对一个只有通过干扰节奏才有机会让系列赛产生悬念的对手时，他们在每一次进攻中都需要保持冷静。
防守端，纪律性将是关键
虽然开拓者在防守端可能很难对付，但他们的进攻确实不够好。他们的外线投篮属于联盟最差之列，而且由于他们没有真正的空间型五号位（尽管克林根的射程在进步），禁区有时会非常拥挤。他们拥有一些极具天赋的得分手，拥有球星阿夫迪亚，并且在赛季末几名角色球员投篮回暖后拥有一定的势头，但只要马刺保持专注，很难想象开拓者能在像圣安东尼奥这样的精英级防守面前保持持续得分。
对于银黑军团来说，不重蹈坏习惯的覆辙至关重要。开拓者深知自己在阵地战中的局限性，即使在马刺进球后，他们也会寻求快攻。如果马刺能够限制对方的快攻轻松得分，并迫使波特兰面对落位防守，他们应该能轻松晋级第二轮。这说起来容易做起来难，因为开拓者拥有多名可以推进球的持球者，包括在开阔地带极具杀伤力的阿夫迪亚，但圣安东尼奥今年在防守快攻得分方面表现出色。
另一个在每次进攻中都需要保持专注的领域是防守篮板。马刺在防守篮板率上领跑全联盟，但在面对一个极其强调争取额外进攻机会的对手时，可能会陷入苦战。卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 并不是一名出色的防守篮板手，而文班亚马可能会被顶开位置，因此需要全队努力来限制二次进攻机会。这是波特兰的关键因素，他们本赛季的进攻篮板率排名联盟第四，且二次进攻得分领跑全联盟。克林根是一名抢板专家，会抢回一些投丢的球，但圣安东尼奥必须为每一个篮板而战。
开拓者阵地进攻的引擎是阿夫迪亚。他场均突破次数领跑全联盟，并且在冲击篮筐时效率很高，部分原因是对手总是对他犯规，这是卡斯尔（很可能是他的主要防守者）必须避免的。阿夫迪亚的体型和视野结合让他很难对付，但他本赛季还没有面对过文班亚马，看看挑战联盟最强护筐者会在多大程度上影响他，将会很有趣。这可能会迫使他去做他在突破时更倾向于做的事：传球。波特兰的问题在于，文班可能会让空接变得不可能，从而迫使阿夫迪亚将球传给外线那些投篮不稳定的射手。
除了转换进攻、二次进攻机会和阿夫迪亚创造的得分外，波特兰拥有一些可行但不够稳定的武器。老将朱·霍勒迪和杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 偶尔仍能砍分，但两人都无法担任第一进攻选择。斯库特·亨德森在投篮、防守和创造机会方面都在进步，但目前来看，他更多是一名角色球员，而非许多人认为他能立即成为的球星。谢顿·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) 可能会砍下30分，也可能会一次又一次地乱投。卡马拉-默里-赛布尔三人组会投进一些三分，但他们在三分线外并不具备威慑力。火力不足是现实存在的问题。
预测：马刺 4-0 横扫
开拓者的实力可能比数据反映的要强，但这对他们来说是一场极其糟糕的对位。圣安东尼奥擅长防守波特兰在进攻端擅长的东西，即转换得分和进攻篮板。阿夫迪亚虽然能投篮，但在冲击禁区时威胁最大，他将面临挑战，因为如果意味着文班亚马能镇守禁区，马刺宁愿漏给克林根一些三分机会。开拓者的阵容有深度，但圣安东尼奥同样如此。他们的防守很强硬，但文班亚马提出了一个他们可能无法解决的难题。他们在任何领域都没有明显的优势。
考虑到马刺的缺乏经验、阿夫迪亚的才华以及开拓者通过防守让对手感到不适的能力，比横扫更稳妥的赌注是给波特兰至少一场胜利。比赛过程可能会很接近，但归根结底，如果圣安东尼奥能够全神贯注，他们应该能在每一场比赛中都占据上风。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Series Preview: Victor Wembanyama’s playoff journey begins
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Series Preview: Victor Wembanyama’s playoff journey begins
The Spurs will return to the playoffs after a six-year drought as the second seed, following a surprising and fantastic season. They have looked like a contender, exceeding expectations and eliciting praise from the entire league. Now it’s time to prove that the success from the regular season is sustainable in the playoffs.
The Trail Blazers will be there in the first round to try to play the spoiler after winning their play-in game against the Suns. Portland has proved to be a deep, scrappy team that found a centerpiece in their breakout star, Deni Avdija. They are a massive underdog heading into Game 1, but they are not to be taken lightly despite their flaws.
Let’s take a closer look at what should be a fun series between two teams with vastly different goals and expectations.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 62-20
Offensive rating: 118.7 (3rd)
Defensive rating: 110.4 (3rd)
Net rating: 8.4 (tied 2nd)
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 42-40
Offensive rating: 113.1 (21st)
Defensive rating: 113.5 (12th)
Net rating: -0.4 (19th)
The Spurs’ offense will be tested
Portland has built its identity around defense. Despite dealing with multiple absences at different times in the season, they finished in the top half of the league in efficiency on that end and are arguably better than their numbers suggest. Their biggest asset is size. Even their smaller guards, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday, have impressive wingspans and strength. Their collection of defensive-minded wings is vast. and they are anchored by Donovan Clingan inside, with Robert Williams backing him up. They thrive when they can cause turnovers, which they often achieve by playing a long rotation and pressuring opponents into mistakes.
Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, they are facing a Spurs team that seems designed to counter their strengths. The Silver and Black have one of the lowest turnover percentages in the league and have several ball handlers they can turn to to relieve the pressure of any specific matchup. They play fast, trying to attack before the defense is established, and normally counter size with speed even in the halfcourt. Their offense is not the most sophisticated, but it doesn’t have to be. Drive-and-kicks and any play involving Wembanyama are normally enough to get them a good look. And they are even feisty on the offensive glass, punishing defenses that overcommit to contesting everything or try to be too aggressive.
There will be key matchups to monitor. In all three regular-season games, the Blazers used Toumani Camara on De’Aaron Fox, even when they had Henderson and Holiday available. Fox got to the paint at will, so they might adjust and try to match his speed with a smaller but quicker defender. Even if they do contain Fox, who torched them this year, the Spurs can turn to Castle to run the show or try to get Deni Avdija, a solid but not outstanding defender, on switches to trigger rotations. The midrange shot and floaters could be deadly against an opponent that often plays drop defense to wall off the rim but doesn’t have switchable bigs.
Speaking of bigs, Victor Wembanyama missed all three games against the Blazers in the regular season, but should thrive in this matchup. Clingan, in particular, should not be able to deal with his agility, and he can draw him out with his range, leaving the back line exposed and the Blazers susceptible to offensive rebounding. Portland has hidden Clingan on non-shooters against stretch bigs, but it might be hard to find somewhere to do so against the Spurs. Castle seems like the better option on paper, but he’s been shooting better and can use his athleticism to attack him. We might see a lot of zone from Tiago Splitter’s team.
Ultimately, it will come down to execution. The Blazers have a lot of long-armed defenders to throw the Spurs’ ball handlers’ way and to punish any distraction or laziness on offense. They have no answer to Wembanyama, but could force others to beat him, so the shooters should be ready to fire away if left open, and San Antonio’s superstar might need to be patient if the entire game plan is geared towards stopping him. The Silver and Black should be able to score, but will need to be under control on every possession against an opponent that only has a chance to make the series competitive if they can rattle them.
Defensively, discipline will be key
While the Blazers can be tricky to deal with on defense, their offense is simply not good enough. Their outside shooting is among the worst in the league, and since they don’t have a true stretch five despite Clingan’s improving range, the paint can be crowded at times. They have some talented shot makers, a star in Avdija, and some momentum after closing the season with several role players shooting better, but it’s incredibly hard to see them scoring consistently against an elite defense like San Antonio’s, provided the Spurs are locked in.
It will be important for the Silver and Black to not fall back into bad habits. The Blazers know their limitations in the half-court and will look to run, even after makes. If the Spurs can limit easy points on the break and force Portland to play against a set defense, they should cruise to the second round. It’s easier said than done, since the Blazers have multiple ball handlers who can push the ball up the floor, including Avdija, who is lethal in space, but San Antonio has been great at preventing fastbreak points this year.
Another area where focus will be required on every possession is the defensive glass. The Spurs led the league in defensive rebounding percentage, but could struggle against an opponent that puts a big emphasis on getting extra possessions. Luke Kornet is not a great defensive rebounder, and Victor Wembanyama can be moved out of the way, so it will take a team effort to limit second-chance opportunities, a key factor for Portland, which finished the season with the fourth-highest offensive rebound percentage in the league and led all teams in second-chance points. Clingan is a specialist and will recover some misses, but San Antonio has to fight for every board.
The engine of the Blazers’ half-court offense is Deni Avdija. He led the league in drives per game and was efficient in those forays to the paint in part because opponents couldn’t stop fouling him, something that Castle, likely his main defender, will have to avoid. Avdija’s combination of size and vision makes him a handful, but he hasn’t faced Wembanyama yet this season, and it will be interesting to see how much challenging the best rim protector in the league affects him. It might push him to do what he seems to prefer on drives: passing. The problem for Portland is that Wemby will likely make lobs impossible, forcing Avdija to spray to the perimeter to questionable shooters.
Beyond the transition buckets, second chance opportunities, and Avdija-generated points, Portland has viable but not consistent weapons. Veterans Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant can still fill it up occasionally, but neither can act as a first option. Scoot Henderson is progressing as a shooter, defender, and shot creator, but at this point, he’s more of a role player than the star many thought he would immediately be. Shaedon Sharpe might drop 30 or take bad shot after bad shot. The Camara-Murray-Thybulle trio will hit some threes, but it doesn’t inspire fear from beyond the arc. The lack of firepower is real.
Prediction: Spurs in 4
The Trail Blazers are likely better than the numbers suggest, but this is a terrible matchup for them. San Antonio is good at preventing what Portland does well on offense, namely getting transition points and offensive rebounds. Avdija, who can shoot but is at his best when he touches the paint, will face a challenge because the Spurs will live with some threes from Clingan if it means Wembanyama gets to shut down the paint. They are deep, but so is San Antonio. Their defense is stout, but Wembanyama presents a riddle they might not be able to solve. They have no significant edge in any area.
A safer bet than a sweep would be to give Portland at least one game, based on the Spurs’ inexperience, Avdija’s brilliance, and the Trail Blazers’ ability to make teams uncomfortable with their defense. The games should likely be close, but in the end, if San Antonio is locked in, they should come out on top in every single one.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock