By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-14 01:30:00
2024年巴黎奥运会结束后，我写了一篇题为《即便在竞技体育中，年龄也无法击败快乐》的文章。我谈到了美国男篮奥运代表队中的一些“资深成员”，尤其是斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，是如何充满喜悦地征服世界的。
对我而言，“喜悦”一词同样可以用来形容马刺队的2025-26赛季常规赛。无论季后赛结局如何，马刺球迷都应该记住本赛季我们在观看球队比赛时所感受到的快乐，那是每一场比赛累积下来的纯粹喜悦。
赛季初，我们曾梦想如果一切顺利，马刺能重返季后赛争夺战。我们希望成为“那样的球队”——一支没人想在季后赛首轮碰到的低顺位种子队。事实上，去年九月，一位 Pounding the Rock 的作者曾这样写道：
“虽然2025-26赛季的马刺现实地看还无法挑战去年的前五强，但他们可以将目标瞄准接下来的三支球队，以及附加赛失利者独行侠和国王。
“让我们把目标定在第6名吧。或许首轮对阵快船。这听起来靠谱吗？”
那个家伙当时充满希望的展望现在看来简直荒谬。马刺不仅挑战并超越了去年的前五强，甚至在面对强大的雷霆队时拿下了4胜1负。62胜！！我真的很庆幸我不是那个写下“马刺会满足于第六名并在首轮对阵第三名快船”的家伙。
噢，等等。那个人就是我。我只有一个借口。那篇文章的标题是：《马刺在今夏变强了，但西部大多数球队也是。等等，难道西部所有强队都变强了吗？》
我当时肯定觉得我的结论应该和标题保持一致。
不过，我在另一项季前预测中表现得好得多。我曾写道：
“篮球界一致认可马刺选择迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 是明智之举，他是2025年NBA选秀中公认的第二好球员。我听到的唯一担忧是，哈珀的技术特点与预期的首发后场组合达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 有所重叠。
“作为一名有过执教经验的人，我知道在两个后场位置上拥有三名优秀的后卫是好事，而非坏事。原因很简单：球员不会打满48分钟。事实上，马刺去年最好的球员（你知道他的名字）场均只打33分钟。在为马刺效力的17场比赛中，福克斯场均出场34分钟，而斯蒂芬·卡斯尔场均27分钟。如果福克斯和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔本赛季的出场时间保持不变，他们在总共96分钟的后场时间里将占据61分钟。这为哈珀或其他人留下了35分钟的空间——例如，如果德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 将时间分配在2号位和3号位之间。哈珀直到2026年3月才满20岁——对于一名处于新秀赛季的年轻球员来说，20分钟左右的出场时间可能恰到好处。哈珀的出场时间可能不足以让他为马刺赢得连续第三座年度最佳新秀奖杯，而且考虑到达拉斯那名新秀在独行侠担任首发，哈珀无论如何可能都拿不到这个奖。”
这一条我完全预测准了。马刺的三名顶级后卫表现出色，分享这96分钟完全不是问题。福克斯和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔合计场均出场61分钟，与我预测的数字完全吻合，而年轻的哈珀场均出场22分钟——这22分钟的表现堪称惊艳。虽然我准确预言了他不会赢得最佳新秀，但哈珀几乎肯定会入选最佳新秀第一阵容。整个赛季，他给马刺球迷带来了无尽的喜悦。
同样带来喜悦的还有斯蒂芬·卡斯尔和福克斯，以及在第六人位置上如鱼得水的凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)（或许是年度最佳第六人？），我们的侧翼射手德文·瓦塞尔和落选秀出身、极具马刺风骨的朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)，替补中锋（有时也担任首发）卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)（同样是落选秀），名不见经传的新秀卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant)（他打球时充满了喜悦的奔放、热情和技巧），还有很好地适应了职业生涯首次替补角色的哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)，以及教练组——他们本质上也是“新秀”。
在马刺客场战胜热火——近期最令人愉悦的比赛之一——之后，我们的法国球星这样说道，而我们在观看球队竞争时也能真切感受到：
“这是无私的表现，”文班在赛后表示，“我们在场上和场下都相处得非常好，我们也看到了结果。”
凯尔登（最近有一群记者参观了他的牧场）刚刚在《球员论坛》上发表了一篇关于他在马刺时光以及圣安东尼奥如何成为他家园的文章，他这样写道：
描述我们这个群体最好的方式就是“牛仔竞技”。队里的每个人都有自己独特的氛围和个性，当这一切融合在一起时，场面非常狂野。我们以此为生。我们沉浸在那种24小时不间断的叫喊、尖叫、大笑和开玩笑的混乱能量中。而在球场上，这种能量转化成了特别的东西。
人们常说，重要的是旅程，而非终点。对于这个常规赛，我无法想象还有比这更令人愉悦的旅程了，哪怕还不知道最终的结局。或许我应该把这篇文章命名为《青春与缺乏经验并不会击败快乐，反而会增强它》。
说到旅程和终点，我本打算通过这篇文章回顾一下我对西部联盟季前胜场总数（Over/Under）的预测。与往年不同，我对这次的季前预测感到非常欣喜。最重要的是，我猜对了马刺。我对马刺的季前预测是：
“拉斯维加斯预测马刺在2025-26赛季的进步幅度将超过除一支球队外的所有球队……我凭什么反对呢？而且根据合同义务，我必须说‘大分（OVER）’，我可不想在‘高层’决定我的圣诞奖金之前违约。大分，大分，大分！”
当然，尽管拉斯维加斯预测马刺的胜场将从34胜增加到43.5胜，但庄家显然过于悲观了。我的“大分，大分，大分”表现得比拉斯维加斯的预测好得多。
我还对快船投了“小分（UNDER）”，当时拉斯维加斯给出的预测是48.5胜。错了！快船只赢了42场，所以我再次击败了拉斯维加斯。
马刺周日负于掘金，使得丹佛的胜场数达到了54场，刚好超过了拉斯维加斯53.5胜的预测——而我当时对掘金投的是大分。这使得我本赛季的总战绩达到了惊人的11胜4负。我其实更希望马刺赢球，那样我的战绩会是10胜5负，但如果能避免必须连克丹佛和俄克拉荷马城才能进入总决赛，我宁愿接受那个战绩。
不幸的是，输掉最后一场比赛意味着马刺可能需要先后跨越丹佛和雷霆才能挺进总决赛。但现在先别关注这些。如果我在赛季前预测，到附加赛开始时，马刺将取得62胜20负（62胜！！）的战绩，位列竞争激烈的西部第二，并在季后赛前两轮（以及如果进入总决赛的话）拥有主场优势，且在常规赛交锋中压制卫冕冠军，大家肯定会觉得我疯了。
但现在呢？请称我为“喜悦之人”。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Joyous Thoughts about the Spurs and my Over/Under predictions at the End of the Regular Season
Joyous Thoughts about the Spurs and my Over/Under predictions at the End of the Regular Season
After the 2024 Paris Olympics concluded, I wrote a piece entitled “Age does not defeat joy, even in sports“. I talked about how some of the “senior members” of the USA Olympic basketball teams, and in particular, Steph Curry and LeBron James, had conquered the world joyfully.
For me, that same word “joy” describes the 2025-26 regular season for the Spurs. Regardless of how the playoffs end, Spurs fans should remember the joy we all experienced watching our team this season, game after game after joyful game.
At the start of the season, we dreamed of the Spurs getting back into the playoff hunt, if everything went well. We hoped to be one of “those teams” — the lower seeded team that no one wants to play. Indeed, last September, a Pounding the Rock writer wrote this:
“While the 2025-26 Spurs cannot realistically expect to challenge the top five from last year, they can set their sights on the next three, along with Play-In losers Mavs and Kings.
“Let’s aim for that 6-spot. And maybe face the Clippers in Round One. Does that sound about right?”
That guy’s hopeful outlook seems ridiculous now. The Spurs both challenged and exceeded the top five from last year, even going 4-1 against the mighty Thunder. 62 wins!! I am sure glad I was not the guy who wrote that the Spurs would be happy with a sixth place finish and a first-round match-up with the third place Clippers.
Oh, wait. That guy was me. I have only one excuse. The article was entitled: “The Spurs got better this summer, but so did most of the Western Conference. Wait, did all the good Western Conference teams get better?”
I must have decided my conclusion should match the title.
However, I did much better on another preseason prediction. I wrote:
“The basketball universe unanimously approved the Spurs’ selection on Dylan Harper as the clear second best player in the 2025 NBA draft. The only concern I have heard is that Harper’s skills overlap with those of the anticipated starting backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
“Having coached a bit, I know that having three good guards for the two backcourt spots is a good thing, not a bad one. The reason is simple: players don’t play all 48 minutes. Indeed, the Spurs’ best player last year (you know his name) averaged just 33 minutes per game. In 17 games with the Spurs, Fox averaged 34 minutes while Castle averaged 27. If Fox and Castle play the same amount this season, they will play a total of 61 minutes out of the 96 minutes available. That leaves 35 minutes for Harper or others — for instance if Devin Vassell splits his time between the 2 and the 3. Harper will be not be 20 years old until March 2026 — and 20 is probably about the right number of minutes for such a young player in his rookie season. There probably won’t be enough playing time for Harper to win the Spurs’ third consecutive Rookie of the Year award, but with that other rookie in Dallas starting for the Mavs, Harper probably won’t win the award anyway.”
I absolutely nailed that one. The Spurs’ three top guards were great, and sharing those 96 minutes was not an issue at all. Fox and Castle combined to average 61 minutes per game, exactly the number I predicted, while young Harper averaged 22 minutes – and those 22 minutes were fabulous. While I correctly stated that he would not win Rookie of the Year, Harper will almost certainly be on the First Team All-Rookie Team. And he brought Spurs fans much joy throughout the season.
As did Castle and Fox, Keldon Johnson, who thrived as Sixth Man (of the Year?), our shooting wings (Devin Vassell and undrafted and therefore very Spursian Julian Champagnie), the back-up center (and sometimes starter) Luke Kornet (also undrafted), unheralded rookie Carter Bryant (who plays with a joyful abandon, enthusiasm and skill), Harrison Barnes (who adjusted well to coming off the bench for the first time ever), and the coaching staff — also essentially rookies.
After a Spurs win in Miami, one of the more joyous recent games to watch, our Frenchman said this, which we could all see as we watched the team compete:
“It’s unselfishness,” said Wemby postgame. “We get along super well on and off the court, and we see the results.”
KJ, who recently had a group of reporters visit his ranch, just had a piece published in The Player’s Tribune about his time with the Spurs and how much of a home San Antonio has become, had this to say:
The best way I can describe our group is like a rodeo. Everybody on the team has their own unique vibe and personality, and when it all comes together it’s just wild. And we thrive off that. We thrive off that chaotic energy of yelling and screaming, and laughing and joking 24/7. And on the floor, that turns into something special.
They say it is the journey, not the destination. For this regular season, I can’t imagine a more joyful journey, without even knowing the ultimate destination. Perhaps I should I have entitled this piece “Youth and inexperience do not defeat joy, they enhance it.”
Speaking of journeys and destinations, I intended this post to be a look back at my preseason over/under predictions for the Western Conference. Unlike prior seasons, I am very joyous about how my preseason predictions this time. Most importantly, I got the Spurs right. My preseason prediction for the Spurs:
“Vegas has projected the Spurs to improve more in 2025-26 than every other team except one . . . Who am I to disagree? I am also contractually obligated to say OVER, and I know better than to breach my contract before ‘the powers that be’ decide on my Christmas bonus. OVER, OVER, OVER”
Of course, even though Vegas projected the Spurs to increase from 34 wins to 43.5, Vegas was wildly pessimistic. My “OVER, OVER, OVER” did so much better than Vegas.
I also went “UNDER, UNDER, UNDER” on the Clippers, who Vegas pegged for 48.5 wins. Wrong! Clips won only 42 games, so I beat Vegas again.
The Spurs’ loss to the Nuggets Sunday put Denver’s win total at 54, just over the 53.5 Vegas prediction — and I had the Nuggets as an Over. That brought my overall record this season to a remarkable 11-4. I would much rather the Spurs won, which would have put me at 10-5, but I would accept that in a heartbeat rather than having to beat both Denver and OKC to get to the NBA Finals.
Unfortunately, losing that last game means that the Spurs will likely need to go through both Denver and OKC to get to the NBA Finals. But let’s not focus on that right now. If I would have predicted before the season that as of the start of the Play-In Round, the Spurs would have finished 62-20 (62 wins!!), second place in the tough Western Conference, with home court for the first two rounds of the playoffs (and the NBA Finals if they get there), and dominate the defending champs in their regular season match-ups, everyone would have understandably called me crazy.
But now? Call me joyous.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock